Adapting to change: more realistic quantification of impacts and better informed adaptation alternatives

Daniel Rodriguez, Peter deVoil, Brendan Power, Howard Cox

Increase our (both researchers and the farming community) understanding (...we are all learning...) on what is changing (climate) and what are the likely consequences if those changes would persist;

Focus of the work

Work with our farmers and agronomists towards reducing their exposure to change (now and the next 5-10 years), by increasing our understanding on what farming systems are more profitable and less risky

ADAPTEDNESS

INCREMENTAL SYSTEMS

ADJUSTMENTS

TRANSFORMATIONGenerates a new social-

ecological systems

RESILIENCECapacity to absorb change and perform S

yste

ms

dis

turb

an

ces

After Nelson et al., 2007

Outcomes

Adaptation processes

System characteristics

Components of adaptation

• (Management) Systems that are more opportunistic-flexible-plastic versus systems that are more rigid or calendar driven

• Systems that can change function e.g. systems that

produce grain / fibre / meat

• Systems that can change scale or intensity e.g. irrigated

• Systems that are more diverse versus systems that are more like monocultures / products

Resilient farming systems by design

Case studies

Roma, grain & graze

Dalby, cotton-grains

Goondiwindi, rainfed cropping

Emerald, rainfed cropping

.

Case studies

Chick

Sorg1,2,.. Fallow

Whe1,2,..

Maize

Rainfed cropping (plastic)

Forageoats

Leucaena

Chickpea

Foragesorghum

Buffelgrass

Wheat

Fallow

Fallow

Grazing cycle

Cropping cycle

Mixed grain - grazing

Irrigated cropping

Cotton

Sorg Fallow

Maize

Mung

Fallow

Wheat

Fallow

Soy

Rainfed cropping

(rigid)

SF C

SF

W 1,2,..

SF

WF C

S 1,2,..

WF

SF

S 1,2,.. W 1,2,..

Whole farm configuration of the APSIM model

Simulates the impacts (i.e. biophysical, economic, environmental) of alternative allocations of limited resources (e.g. land, labour, time, irrigation water, livestock, machinery, and finance), at the whole farm level.

The APSFarm model

Rodriguez et al., 2011; Power et al., 2011 A1FI and A2, MRI-GCM232 and MIROC-H

2030

System disturbance

Sensitivity analysis

• Less land to cropping • More forages fewer pastures

Sensitivity analysis

A1FI 2030MRI-GCM232

Climatology

Allocation of resources

• Our case study farmers proved to be very good operators

• Percent reductions on farm profit can easily exceed percent changes on individual crop yields (not shown)

• Farms and farmers already operating on the efficiency frontier, would have fewer “easier” options to adapt

• More transformational changes will need to be explored

• Impact assessments and the identification of opportunities for adaptation to climate change should (also) be conducted at the whole farm level

Conclusions

Thank you

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