Welcome ToAdam Smith Associates Pvt. Ltd

Technical Analysis Report 09/02/2017

Technical Analysis – 9th Feb 2017Gold Technical Analysis Report

Spot gold starts a 3rd wave in dollar terms as the daily momentum goes back in buy mode. Wave 3 target is near 1285$ without considering that wave 3 will extend. Prices closed above the 20 week average by a dollar, but found support on all dips to the 20dma at 1212 during the week

Technical Analysis – 9th Feb 2017Crude Technical Analysis Report

Crude continues to confuse you on both sides, so you have to wait for a confirmation. The price is within a channel with the upper end at 54.6 and lower end at 52.47, a break out of it is needed. The question remains will we go to 62 first or 42 first. Not yet conclusive. The neckline at 51.56 is the next support and the swing high of 55.24 the next resistance.

Technical Analysis – 9th Feb 2017Platinum Technical Analysis Report

Platinum - Wave III up to 1070 starting. Support at 982

Technical Analysis – 9th Feb 2017JPYINR Technical Analysis Report

A weak dollar is pushing lower the USDJPY and JPYINR can be a play on this move, of the Yen v/s the rupee. JPYINR has been rising for a while. At a larger degree on the weekly chart below a 3rd wave [or wave C] up has started. Wave 2 ended at 61.8% and the move up has the first hurdle near the weekly averages near 61. The 3rd wave equality to the first wave projects to as far as 77 overall in the year ahead with resistance near 66

Technical Analysis – 9th Feb 2017DJ Euro Stoxx 50 Technical Analysis Report

Europe is where the weakest link is, and European stocks were the worst hit yesterday. The DJ Euro Stoxx index started a minor wave iii decline as the DAX broke the previous swing low. So they are leading the way. I suspect another 3-4 % dip in Europe to the lower end of the rising channel as wave C up is complete. Logically this should be resumption of the bear market in Europe, with Italy at the lead with a wave 3 decline starrting

Technical Analysis – 9th Feb 2017Euro Technical Analysis Report

Euro did close below the 20dma but that does not change the medium term trend. Short term it means we are still correcting in wave ii of III, or maybe wave III up still did not start. 1.064 is the immediate support and then 1.0617 below that. Below 1.0617 it would mean we are still in wave II and wave III has not started.

Technical Analysis – 9th Feb 2017US 10 year T Notes Technical Analysis Report

US T-Notes broke out of the inverted H&S pattern higher into wave iii

Technical Analysis – 9th Feb 2017USD AUD Technical Analysis Report

The Australian dollar is getting stronger and the USDAUD broke its wave 1 low without much of a bounce. Wave 3 down has mostly started and should see it to new lows towards the 1.252 level, which is below the multiple lows of last year

Technical Analysis – 9th Feb 2017USDTWD Technical Analysis Report

The weak dollar is slowly rubbing off on most trends even in Asian currencies. Did wave 2 circle at larger degree end? When will 3 up start. We will just have to wait for some pattern to form. The initial advance that I identified did not work and now the USDTWD is falling so there is no point in calling a bottom till these pairs can diverge from the weak dollar trend that we are now witnessing across pairs. This said we are very close to 30.85 seen last year and also near 61.8% of the entire rally from 2013-2016. So we have to wait for a sign near term that the low is in.

Technical Analysis – 9th Feb 2017USDZAR Technical Analysis Report

The South African Rand USDZAR - Broke down from its long term rising channel, that started in 2011, after completing 5 waves up. The move down in now in wave Z that can take it to the lower end of the falling channel since the 2016 top near 12. No strong dollar here.

Technical Analysis – 9th Feb 2017US Equities and Russel 2000 Technical Analysis Report

US markets are witnessing internal divergences between their indices. We may say that the Trump rally ended, going by the Russel 2000 small stocks index. It ended in early December from where this index has trended lower. Only the Nasdaq has gone higher since then. This index has been in a range. So what happens next? A breakout is needed but inter market divergences always precede potential trend reversals so if the lower end breaks that is what it will mean

Technical Analysis – 9th Feb 2017Gold Silver Ratio Technical Analysis Report

In deciding on Gold v/s Silver this chart makes it clear. Silver wins. The Gold Silver ratio is declining from the upper end of its long term range. Silver prices are therefore rising faster than Gold, except for the recent pause during the correction in Precious metals. The indicator should drop much further when prices move higher. Silver usually moves up 2-3 times more than gold. The ratio can go from 70 to below 45 as it has before. But if you chose Silver remember that it is more volatile both ways. If you do not like volatility then Gold is always s safer instrument

Technical Analysis – 9th Feb 2017

• Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author - Mr Rohit Srivastava - a leading technical analyst.

Our OfficesRegistered office:Adam Smith Associates Pvt. Ltd.901, Commercial Tower,Le Meridien, Windsor Place,Janpath, New delhi-110001(India)Tel No.:-91 11 23738486Fax No.:-91 11 23738495Email id: info@adamsmith.tvBranch office:Princess Business SkylineUnit No. 310Block No. 32 & 33PU 3 Commercial,Scheme No. 54A.B. Road, Indore-452010 M.P.