adam mazurkiewicz, beata...

Third International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis: Impacts and implications for policy and decision-making – SEVILLE 16-17 OCTOBER 2008

THEME: FTA IN RESEARCH AND INNOVATION

METHODOLOGY OF FORESIGHT PROJECTS IN STRATEGIC AREAS ON THE BASIS OF THE NATIONAL FORESIGHT

PROGRAMME “POLSKA 2020”

Adam Mazurkiewicz, Beata Poteralska

Institute for Sustainable Technologies – National Research Institute, ul. K. Pulaskiego 6/10, 26-600 Radom, [email protected], [email protected]

Summary

The article presents the results of the analysis of Polish and foreign foresight projects at the

national, international and regional level in the areas of strategic importance with respect to their objectives, used methods, and the implementation of the projects’ results in economic practice. Against this background, experiences from the execution of the National Foresight Programme “Polska 2020” (NFP) carried out in the years 2006-2008 are presented. The Programme involves three Research Area Panels: “Sustainable Development of Poland,” “Information and Telecommunications Technologies,” and “Security.” The subject area of the panel “Sustainable Development of Poland,” co-ordinated on a national scale by the article’s authors, comprises problems of advanced engineering technologies, environment protection, natural resources and socio-economic issues. The most important objectives of NFP “Polska 2020” are proposing the development vision of Poland until year 2020 and listing the priority directions of scientific-development work, which will in the long perspective influence the pace of the socio-economic development.

The author’s original methodology for executing work within the Programme is described. The key stages of work include the following: selecting a group of multispecialists and methodological experts, preparing, within ten Thematic Panels constituting the Research Area Panel: “Sustainable Development of Poland” lists of topics and selecting from them macro-topics, which define the thematic scope of interests of particular panels. The next step comprises generating within Thematic Panels, with considering the agreed macro-topics, priorities understood as technologies, methods, ways of problem solving, and techniques or procedures. The next step comprises the development of assessment criteria for priorities and procedures with the use of which priorities are evaluated and macro-priorities are selected (the most important priorities amongst all proposed by a group of multispecialists). The methodology of developing Delphi theses and the course of two Delphi rounds conducted by a professional opinion polling company1 are described. Currently, with the use of Delphi and PEST analysis results, development scenarios are built.

Moreover, the article presents the results of the analysis of organisational issues and the efficiency of activities carried out in NFP “Polska 2020.” Connections of the national programme with sectoral and regional foresight projects are indicated. Particular attention is paid to difficulties connected with the Programme execution. Difficulties of essential importance for the quality of the executed work concern methodological and organisational problems. Although experts were provided with some methodological support, it seems to be necessary to apply a

1 Pentor Research International, Warsaw

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more complex approach to this problem in the future. Proposals in this area are presented in the article. Another problem concerns the optimal and differentiated composition of Thematic Panels. Despite the agreed assumption that experts representing different disciplines and spheres of the economy should participate in the project, it was difficult to ensure an appropriate range of expert teams comprising representatives of the research-development sphere, industry, enterprises from the SME sector, professional associations, public administration and political parties. Activities undertaken in this area within NFP “Polska 2020” enabling the achievement of reliable results and general proposals on how to cope with this problem in foresight projects are also presented.

Introduction

The essential importance of advanced technologies for economic growth and their decisive

influence on the majority of aspects of social development determines the need to identify future technologies. Selecting strategic research areas creates a basis for working out systematic, long-term visions of the future. Foresight projects can be an effective tool for the creation of such visions. The results of foresight projects are particularly useful for setting the directions of future technological and socio-economic development, and economic, scientific and technological priorities. Additional benefits comprise the identification of innovative, new areas of research and application, currently or potentially emerging in the future. Foresight is especially important in the case of implementing strategic research directions or key technologies at a national level, in particular introducing new subject areas of projects within the framework of existing strategic research programmes or launching new programmes. 1. Analysis of foreign foresight projects

Analysis of foreign foresight projects was aimed at the creation of a comparative (content-related methodological and organisational) base for the National Foresight Programme “Polska 2020” while taking into account the following assumptions: • Subject area of the analysis covers foresight exercises carried out on a national level; • Analysis concerns projects in strategic areas (comprising one or many disciplines); and, • Particular attention is paid to foresight exercises with the time horizon to year 2020.

The analysis was carried out with respect to the following aspects (Fig. 1.): • Objectives of foresight projects; • Applied methods; and, • Implementation of projects’ results in practice.

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Fig. 1. The classification of foresight exercises with respect to the projects’ objectives, applied methods and the implementation of results in practice. Source: The authors’ own elaboration

Three groups of projects are distinguished concerning the foresight project objective. The

first group comprises projects directed towards the identification of key research directions or technologies, which should be developed in a particular country to ensure the increase in the levels of innovativeness, economy competitiveness and the quality of life. Such objectives were set in three rounds of foresight programmes in France2 aimed at the identification of key technologies for the years 2000, 2005 and 2010, respectively, and in foresight project aimed at setting priorities of technological development in China after 2020.3 The mentioned projects were directed towards determining key research directions or strategic technologies covering many disciplines. Similar projects, but covering one selected discipline, were executed, e.g. in Denmark – a project concerning sensor technologies sector4 and a project concerning environmental friendly agriculture.5

The second group comprises projects directed towards the development of a national innovation strategy. A technological foresight in Hungary6 is an example of such a project. It was

2 Cadiou Y., From key-technologies to key-competencies. Scientific and technological competencies at the

regional level related to the French “Key-Technologies” exercises, The Second International Conference on Technology Foresight, Tokio, 27-28.02.2003.

3 Rongping M., Zhongbao R., Technology Foresight towards 2020 in China: the Practice and its Impacts, Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis, 28-29.09.2006.

4 Andersen P. D., Jørgensen B. H., Lading L., Rasmussen B., Sensor Foresight – Technology and Market, Technovation, vol. 24, 2004.

5 Green Technological Foresight on Environmental Friendly Agriculture: Executive Summary, National Laboratory Roskilde Denmark, December 2004, www.risoe.dk.

6 Technology Foresight in Hungary, The Proceeding of International Conference on Technology Foresight,

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http://www.risoe.dk/



aimed at supporting the process of formulating a national strategy essential for improving the quality of life and increasing the country’s competitiveness7.

The third distinguished group covers projects aimed at the identification of potential possibilities of economic or social development resulting from the emergence of new research directions or technologies, without preparing a national research strategy or setting detailed research priorities. Foresight projects carried out in the United Kingdom aimed at pointing out potential possibilities of economic and social development resulting from the emergence of new technologies and scientific achievements are examples in this group of projects.8

A second aspect of analyses of essential importance for carrying out foresight comprises the applied methods. A large variety of applied methods is observed in foresight exercises. In national projects, the following methods are the most often used: analysis of existing experts’ reports and statistical data, expert panels, scenarios and futures workshops (Fig. 2).

Fig. 2. The use of foresight methods in national projects. Source: The authors’ own elaboration on the basis of Keenan M., Butter M., Sainz de la Fuenta G., Popper R., Mapping foresight in Europe and other regions of the world, European Foresight Monitoring Network, 2006.

March 2001, www.nistep.go.jp.

7 Toth S., Technology Foresight in Hungary, http://www.nistep.go.jp/achiev/ftx/eng/mat077e/html/mat077ke.html

8 The Foresight Programme, http://www.foresight.gov.uk/About_Foresight/The_Programme_2005/Index.html.

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http://www.nistep.go.jp/

http://www.foresight.gov.uk/About_Foresight/The_Programme_2005/Index.html



Expert methods are used in all analysed projects, in the majority of cases together with other

quantitative and qualitative ones. The most popular methods used in combination with others are expert panels and scenarios. expert panels are often combined with futures workshops and brainstorming. Scenarios are also often combined with future workshops.9,10

From the analysis, it appears that the most popular methods in foresight exercises, similar to the NFP “Polska 2020,” are scenarios, Delphi and expert panels.

Delphi is decidedly one of the most popular method in national foresight projects. It was a key element of national foresight projects, among others, in Korea11 Japan,12 China,13 Colombia,14 Germany,15 Austria,16 Russia,17 and Slovenia,18 Moreover, it was the only method used in some projects, e.g., in the project of the German Federal Ministry for Research and Technologies19 and Technology Foresight in Slovenia.20 It probably results from the fact that Delphi provides useful quantitative data; but at the same time, it is an expensive and long-lasting procedure. Because of these features, it can be only used by large, rich governmental organisations and in some cases by very large companies conducting long-term foresight projects.21 22

9 Keenan M., Butter M., Sainz de la Fuenta G., Popper R., Mapping foresight in Europe and other regions

of the world, European Foresight Monitoring Network 2006 10 Poteralska B., Sacio-Szymańska A. Adaptacja algorytmu prowadzenia procesu foresightu technologicz-

nego w jednostkach badawczo-rozwojowych, “Nauka i Szkolnictwo Wyższe” Nr 2/2008. Centrum Badań Polityki Naukowej i Szkolnictwa Wyższego, Warsaw 2008.

11 Park B., Son S.H., Korean Technology Foresight for Science and Technology Policy Making, Second International Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis: Impact of FTA Approaches on Policy and Decision-Making, Sevilla, 2006, http://forera.jrc.es/documents/papers/byeongwon_park_korean_TF-final.pdf

12 Blind K., Regulatory Foresight: Methodologies And Selected Applications, Second International Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis: Impact of FTA Approaches on Policy and Decision-Making, Sevilla, 2006: http://forera.jrc.es/documents/papers/Seviella_Pap_Blind.pdf

13 Rongping M., Zhongbao R., Technology Foresight towards 2020 in China: the Practice and its Impacts: http://forera.jrc.es/documents/papers/Technology%20Foresight-murongping.pdf

14 Ibidem 15 Blind K., Regulatory Foresight: Methodologies And Selected Applications, Second International Seminar

on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis: Impact of FTA Approaches on Policy and Decision-Making, Sevilla, 2006, http://forera.jrc.es/documents/papers/Seviella_Pap_Blind.pdf

16 Aichholzer G., Searching for leadershiop in innovation niches: Technology Foresight in Austria, http://www.nisteep.go.jp.

17 Gaponenko N., Methods and Tools for Future Exploration and Decision Making in Multidisciplinary and Fast Developing Technological Domain: A Case of Nanotechnology, Second International Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis: Impact of FTA Approaches on Policy and Decision-Making, Sevilla, 2006 http://forera.jrc.es/documents/papers/Nanopaper2.pdf

18 Stanovnik P., Kos M., Technology Foresight in Slovenia, Institute for Economic Research, Ljubljana, 2005.

19 Blind K., Regulatory Foresight: Methodologies And Selected Applications, Bundesministerium für Forschung und Technologie, Second International Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis: Impact of FTA Approaches on Policy and Decision-Making, Sevilla, 2006, http://forera.jrc.es/documents/papers/Seviella_Pap_Blind.pdf

20 Stanovnik P., Kos M., Technology Foresight in Slovenia, Institute for Economic Research, Ljubljana, 2005

21 Schwartz J.A., German Delphi on Corporate Foresight: Foresight Brief No. 078, The European Foresight Monitoring Network, 2006, http://www.efmn.info/kb/efmn-brief78.pdf

22 Day L. H., Delphi Research in the Corporate Environment, http://is.njit.edu/pubs/delphibook/ch3c1.html

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http://forera.jrc.es/documents/papers/byeongwon_park_korean_TF-final.pdf


http://forera.jrc.es/documents/papers/Seviella_Pap_Blind.pdf

http://www.nisteep.go.jp/

http://forera.jrc.es/documents/papers/Nanopaper2.pdf

http://forera.jrc.es/documents/papers/Seviella_Pap_Blind.pdf

http://www.efmn.info/kb/efmn-brief78.pdf

http://is.njit.edu/pubs/delphibook/ch3c1.html



In many projects, in which Delphi was the basic method, it was combined with others, e.g. methods used in national foresight in Hungary were expert panels, Delphi and scenarios,23 in Germany - Delphi, scenarios and technology roadmapping,24 and in China - Delphi and scenarios.25

Scenarios are another, very often used creative method. As opposed to Delphi, scenarios are rarely the only method in foresight exercises; usually they are combined with one or more other methods. It is probably caused by the qualitative and ambiguously defined nature of scenarios. Scenarios are a way of thinking and searching for possible trends and solutions in the future.26 Planning scenarios is a structured, organised process and its results are qualitative. Such specificity of the method causes difficulties for many organisations,27 in particular enterprises using the model of “making decision on the basis of data.” That is why scenarios are often combined with other methods enabling acquisition of quantitative data. Examples of using scenarios as the main element of foresight projects are sectoral foresight projects carried out in the United Kingdom,28 foresight in the field of nanotechnology in Russia,29 micro- and nanotechnology in Europe,30 and in the field of rational use of energy executed in the Netherlands and Canada.31

Other methods, e.g. trend analysis, are also used in foresight projects, but their results usually make input data used in foresight exercises carried out by means of methods that are more creative. Moreover, technology roadmapping, interactive workshops with experts, SWOT analysis and other methods used for searching for data, such as patent analysis and bibliometrics, are universally used complementary foresight methods.

From amongst the mentioned methods, the most often used in national foresight projects is technology roadmapping.32 Its popularity results from the fact that it provides a bottom-up approach not observed in foresight exercises based mainly on scenarios. However, it is interesting to note that, in all analysed projects in which technology roadmapping was used, it was combined with scenarios. As indicated by Choi,33 technology roadmapping may be closely

23 Technology Foresight in Hungary, The Proceeding of International Conference on Technology

Foresight, March 2001, www.nistep.go.jp 24 Cuhls K., Jürgen O., Baier E., Future-oriented Information and Media Technology and the Human

Factor – A Foresight Exercise called “FAZIT”, Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research, Karlsruhe, Niemcy, http://is.njit.edu/pubs/delphibook/index.html

25 Rongping Mu, Zhongbao R., Technology Foresight towards 2020 in China: the Practice and its Impacts. Institute of Policy and Management, Chinese Academy of Sciences, http://forera.jrc.es.

26 Conway M., Scenario Planning: An Innovative Approach to Strategy Development, 2004 Australasian Association for Institutional Research Forum, 2004, http://www.aair.org.au/jir/2004Papers/CONWAY.pdf

27 Ibidem 28 Stout D., The use of Scenarios in Foresight, http://www.foresight.gov.uk; Foresight Futures 2020.

Revised scenarios and guidance. Department of Trade and Industry. Great Gritain, 2002 29 Gaponenko N., Methods and Tools for Future Exploration and Decision Making in Multidisciplinary and

Fast Developing Technological Domain: A Case of Nanotechnology, Second International Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis: Impact of FTA Approaches on Policy and Decision-Making, Sevilla, 2006, http://forera.jrc.es/documents/papers/Nanopaper2.pdf

30 Robinson D. K. R., Propp T., Multi-Path Mapping as Strategic Intelligence for Reflexive Alignment in Emerging S&T, http://forera.jrc.es/

31 Energy to 2050, Scenarios for a Sustainable Future, International Energy Agency, OECD, Paris, France, 2003

32 Keenan M., Butter M., Sainz de la Fuenta G., Popper R., Mapping foresight in Europe and other regions of the world, European Foresight Monitoring Network 2006

33 Choi Y., Technology Roadmap in Korea, The Second International Conference on Technology

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http://www.nistep.go.jp/

http://www.aair.org.au/jir/2004Papers/CONWAY.pdf


http://forera.jrc.es/



connected with scenarios, creating in this way two steps of technological foresight. De Laat34 presents a similar approach. He claims that scenarios create a basis for any technology roadmap, because they are a point of reference and reason for developing a vision of the future. On the other hand, technology roadmaps complement the process of building scenarios. According to this statement, scenarios provide a general vision (e.g. for the whole sector), which is next developed in a form of separate roadmaps concerning a particular industry in the sector. In other words, technology roadmaps show the way of realising scenarios.

Technology roadmapping was used as one of essential elements in the following foresight projects: Korean Future Technology Initiative,35 the Russian National Nanotech Foresight Program,36 the NanoRoadMap project, 37 and in projects executed by the Technology Promotion Association (Thailand – Japan).38

The key technologies method was used in many projects directed towards the identification of research priorities. The method consists in setting technologies with a large potential influence on economic effectiveness and the quality of life. Implementation of the key technologies method enables the setting priorities of a country’s scientific, technological and innovative policy, propose solutions, and to anticipate the future needs of the economy and society. This method was used, among others, in national foresight projects in France39 and the USA.40

The next distinguished aspect of analyses comprises the implementation of foresight results in practice.

Despite general recognition of the importance of the practical use of foresight results in practice, the undertaken trials of their implementation were not always successful. In the majority of countries in which national foresight projects are executed, they are ordered by governments of these countries. Project results are addressed primarily to policy-makers in the area of science and technology.41 They embrace recommendations for the government concerning research directions that are strategic for the future of a particular country and possibly instruments for their

Foresight, Tokyo, 2003, http://www.nistep.go.jp/IC/ic030227/pdf/p5-1.pdf

34 De Laat B., Conditions for effectiveness of roadmapping. A cross-sectional analysis of 80 different roadmapping exercises, EU-US Seminar: New Technology Foresight, Forecasting & Assessment Methods, Sevilla 13-14 May 2004, http://forera.jrc.es/fta/fta2004.html

35 Park B., Son S.H., Korean Technology Foresight for Science and Technology Policy Making, Second International Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis: Impact of FTA Approaches on Policy and Decision-Making, Sevilla, 2006, http://forera.jrc.es/documents/papers/byeongwon_park_korean_TF-final.pdf

36 Gaponenko N., Methods and Tools for Future Exploration and Decision Making in Multidisciplinary and Fast Developing Technological Domain: A Case of Nanotechnology, Second International Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis: Impact of FTA Approaches on Policy and Decision-Making, Sevilla, 2006, http://forera.jrc.es/documents/papers/Nanopaper2.pdf

37 Roadmaps at 2015 on Nanotechnology Application in the sectors of: Materials, Health & Medical Systems, Energy, Synthesis Report, AIRI/Nanotec IT, http://www.nanoroadmap.it.

38 Sripaipan C., Foresight in a Non-Profit Organisation: A Case of the Technology Promotion Association (Thailand-Japan), Second International Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis: Impact of FTA Approaches on Policy and Decision-Making, Sevilla, 2006, http://forera.jrc.es

39 Cadiou Y., From key-technologies to key-competencies. Scientific and technological competencies at the regional level related to the French “Key-Technologies” exercises, The Second International Conference on Technology Foresight, Tokyo, 27-28.02.2003.

40 The National Critical Technologies Report. Policy and National Critical Technologies Review Group, White House Office of Science and Technology, Washington 1995.

41 Rader M., Knud B., First Findings from FISTERA on Foresight, Technikfolgenabschĕzung, Nr. 2, 2003.

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http://www.nistep.go.jp/IC/ic030227/pdf/p5-1.pdf

http://forera.jrc.es/fta/fta2004.html



http://forera.jrc.es/



implementation. Depending on the foresight project’s objectives, the expected activities may comprise introduction of topics proposed as a result of a foresight project as priority topics in existing strategic research programmes, the launch of new programmes or the introduction of instruments aimed at supporting the implementation of technological solutions in regions, sectors or enterprises.

The first group comprises projects in which recommendations are transformed into real activities at a national level, including the launch of a research programme or a special type of projects directed towards the support of future research directions. A particular example is the national foresight project in the Czech Republic,42 which was narrowly aimed at the development of proposals of thematic priorities of national research programmes. The project was implemented in three succeeding national programmes directed towards the identification of key development problems of the Czech Republic, which should be solved thanks to conducting research within these programmes. Execution of a foresight project in United Kingdom43 also resulted in launching new programmes and initiatives, such as Associate Programmes, The Foresight Small Business Toolkit and Young Foresight initiative, among others.

The next group comprises undertakings resulting in introducing a new type of project or making changes in existing financing mechanisms, e.g. in Germany44 (taking into consideration research problems identified in a foresight project in selecting projects and proposing new financing formulas) and in France45 (the creation and execution of contracts “Contrats de plan Etat-région” concerning multi-year programming of financing priority activities concerning regional development).

The National Foresight Programme “Polska 2020”46 currently being executed in Poland

belongs to the group of projects directed towards setting key research directions. It is aimed at proposing the development vision of Poland until the year 2020 while indicating the priority directions of scientific-development work, which will in the long term influence the pace of the country’s socio-economic growth. The structure of the Programme is presented in Fig. 3. Creative work is carried out by the Main Panel, Research Areas Panels, and Thematic Panels. All of them are expert panels. Partner institutions and external experts make the scientific and analytical base of the Programme.

42 Klusacek K., Technology Foresight in the Czech Republic, Discussion Paper Series, article 03-15, 2003 43 Keenan M., Marvin S., Winters C., Mobilising the regional foresight potential for enlarged European

Union, United Kingdom Country Report, Brussels, 2002 44 Giesecke S., Futur – The German Research Dialogue, Foresight Brief No.1, The European Foresight

Monitoring Network EFMN, 2007; National and Regional Key Technologies, European Foresight Monitoring Network, www.efmn.info, 2008;

45 Cadiou Y., From key-technologies to key-competencies. Scientific and technological competencies at the regional level related to the French “Key-Technologies” exercises, The Second International Conference on Technology Foresight, Tokyo, 2003; Hoffmann B., Rader M., WP 1 - Review and analysis of national foresight. D1.1FR - Case study France - technologies clés 2005, Report of FISTERA project (Thematic Network on Foresight on Information Society Technologies) in FP5, 2003;

46 Carried out in the years 2006-2008, after pilot national foresight “Health and Life”, http://www.ippt.gov.pl/foresight/foresight-narodowy.html.

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http://www.efmn.eu/

http://www.efmn.eu/

http://www.efmn.info/



Consortium

coordinating the project

Steering Committee Main Panel * Additional panel added in the course of the Programme’s execution ** Names of particular Thematic Panels are shown in Fig. 4 Fig. 3. The structure of NFP “Polska 2020.” Source: The authors’ own elaboration on the basis of Kuciński J., Narodowy Program Foresight “Polska 2020.”

The scope of the National Foresight Programme “Polska 2020” comprises three research areas: Sustainable Development of Poland, Information and Telecommunications Technologies, and Security (Fig. 4).

Sus

tain

able

Dev

elop

men

t of P

olan

d Research

Area 1 Partner institutions

External Thematics

Research Area 3

Info

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ion

and

Tele

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mun

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ions

Te

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logi

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Sec

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Research Area 2

Thematic Panels **

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“Sustainable Development of

Poland” Research Area 1

Thematic Panels • Quality of life • Sources and use of power

resources • Key ecological problems • Environmental protection

technologies • Natural resources • New materials and technologies • Transport • Integration of ecological policy

with sectoral policies • Product policy • Sustainable development of

regions and areas • Future advanced industrial

technologies

“Information and Telecommunications

Technologies” Research Area 2

Thematic Panels • Access to information • ICT and the society • ICT and education • e-Business • New media

“Security” Research Area 3

Thematic Panels • Economic security (external and

internal) • Intellectual security • Social security • Technical and technological

security • Development of civic society.

Fig. 4. The thematic scope of Thematic Panels in NFP “Polska 2020.” Source: The authors’ own elaboration on the basis of: Narodowy Program Foresight “Polska 2020,” information booklet of the Programme, Ministry of Science and Higher Education, Warsaw, 2006.

Similarly, as in other analysed foresight projects, in NFP “Polska 2020” mainly expert methods have been used. A combination of a few methods have been used amongst which of essential importance are expert panels, Delphi, and scenarios. Complementary methods are cross-impact analysis, PEST, STEEPV, and SWOT.

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Programme results will be implemented in practice in the form of priority directions of national research programmes. Implementation will be ensured thanks to participation in the Programme of the Steering Committee, acting under the Ministry of Science and Higher Education. The Steering Committee has an advisory and supervisory function concerning the proper execution of the Programme. 2. Methodology of The National Foresight Programme “Polska 2020”

Methodology of NFP “Polska 2020” in the area “Sustainable Development of Poland” was proposed taking into consideration the general guidelines for the whole Programme, prepared by the Co-ordinating Consortium and the detailed original procedures and algorithms developed by a methodological team of the panel of the mentioned research area. The Co-ordinating Consortium prepared general guidelines concerning the methodology and time-schedule of work. They comprise methods, proposals of their use in the course of the Programme execution, and expected milestones (Delphi theses, scenarios) that should be achieved within the assumed time limit. However, a uniform detailed methodology for the whole Programme has not been prepared. Heads of particular panels, Sustainable Development of Poland, Information and Telecommunications Technologies and Security, had a significant freedom in choosing the way to achieve the expected results and in the course of developing detailed algorithms of work.

The following methodological assumptions were accepted in NFP “Polska 2020”: • Work is executed by formally appointed Thematic Panels with support of external experts; • Delphi theses and scenarios should be developed within the same time limit in the whole

Programme; • Two rounds of Delphi are run; • Three scenarios (coherent for the whole Programme) are developed; and, • SWOT analysis and work of Thematic Panels are carried out in a flexible way.

The methodology of work in NFP “Polska 2020” is presented based on the example of the largest of panels, “Sustainable Development of Poland” comprising 10 Thematic Panels (and an additional panel created in the course of tasks execution) co-ordinated on a national scale by the paper’s authors. Heads of the panel developed the algorithm of work (Fig. 5, phases of work executed by Thematic Panels are marked with dark colour, and work carried out by other executors of the Programme – with light colour), in co-operation with experts for foresight methodology and taking into consideration general formal guidelines concerning the methodology and time-table of work within the Programme.

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Fig. 5. General algorithm of work in the panel “Sustainable Development of Poland” in NFP “Polska 2020”

Selection of key driving forces

Selection of priority technologies

Scenarios development

Cross-impact

PEST analysis

Discussion on Delphi results

Delphi – 2 rounds

Development of Delphi theses

Preparation of the list of macropriorities divided into three groups: ecological, technological and socio-economic

Proposition of additional macropriorities given by the

Research Area Panel

Analysis of the list of macropriorities

Assessment of priorities by internal experts of Thematic Panels

Assessment of priorities by external experts

Preparation of a list of macropriorities by Thematic Panels

Assessment of priorities with the use of a set of criteria

Preparation of proposals of priorities by Thematic Panels (20-30 for each panel)

(priority – technology, method, way of solving, technique, procedure)

Preparation of proposals of topics by Thematic Panels, selection of macro-topics

Determination of key objectives for each Thematic Panel

Source: The authors’ own elaboration.

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The proposed algorithm comprises standard elements often used in national foresight programmes, such as the extended procedure of selecting priority topics, the execution of two rounds of Delphi and development of three scenarios. The proposed methodology takes into consideration a very wide, heterogeneous composition of Thematic Panels and the coverage of technological, ecological and social issues.

Based on the accepted general algorithm of work in the panel “Sustainable Development of Poland,” a detailed algorithm and a procedure of work within the panel are prepared. The algorithm includes the following phases: • Preparation of a list of topics and the selection of macrotopics; • Generation of priorities, the preparation of assessment criteria and the selection of

macropriorities; • Preparation of Delphi theses; and, • Development of scenarios.

The methodology has been applied and verified to the stage of analysing Delphi results.

2.1. The preparation of a list of topics and selection of macrotopics

After establishing Thematic Panels, objectives of their activity were determined. Moreover,

there were generated lists of topics interesting for particular panels, resulting from the key needs of the economy analysed in the perspective of 20 years. It was assumed that the needs should take into account the following: • Significant experience and achievements of Polish scientific and economic milieu in a

particular area; • Substantial scientific, human and infrastructure potential in a particular area; • Possibility of meeting world standards and real chances for gaining competitive advantage; • Niches as areas of supplementing the directions of dynamic development in the world; and, • New and emerging areas on a global scale, with a potentially significant influence on the

economy. The next step of work comprised the generation of topics according to the following

proposed criteria: • Social expectations, • Importance for the economy, • Ecological conditions, and • Dynamics of need for changes.

From the list of proposed topics, there were selected macrotopics – topics of prime importance with the use of the proposed criteria. It was assumed that the number of macrotopics in individual panels should not exceed five.

2.2. The generation of priorities, the preparation of assessment criteria, and the selection of macropriorities

Priorities understood as technologies, methods, ways of problem solving, techniques or

procedures that ensure meeting potential needs of the economy by year 2020 were generated based on macrotopics. At the first stage of work, wide lists of priorities were prepared in each panel on the basis of proposals of experts – members of panels. As a result of discussion, lists

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of priorities were shortened to 15-20 priorities, and these selected priorities were assessed according to the proposed criteria (a set of scientific-research, implementation, economic, social and environmental criteria). After assessment, lists of maximum six macropriorities were prepared for each Thematic Panel.

Assessment was carried out by internal experts from particular Thematic Panels (ca. 15 people in each) and by a large group of external experts. Priorities were assessed by external experts to obtain wide, professional opinion concerning the importance of proposed topics, especially in the situation when a particular panel contained a limited number of representatives, e.g. of the economy or public administration. In such situations, external experts mainly represented these social groups.

Thematic Panel “New Materials and Technolo

gies”

Fig. 6. Model of formulating Delphi theses based on the example of the Thematic Panel “New materials and technologies.” Source: The authors’ own elaboration.

In the course of work, execution experts repeatedly discussed a lack of including important technological issues in the subject area of panels. Consequently, additional macropriorities were introduced covering the following, among others: issues of chemical technologies, industrial technologies, issues from the area of the construction industry, machine construction and maintenance. A model of formulating Delphi theses are presented in Fig. 6.

Highly-processed functional materials: isotropic, gradient, thin-layer materials

Conceptually new functional (isotropic, gradient, thin-layer) materials based on

nanotechnology and processes of layers synthesis for mechanics and biomedical

engineering

Nanomaterials and nanotechnologies will create a

technological base for creation of new generation mechatronic

subassemblies in an industrial scale

Thin functional layers and technologies of their deposition

(by means of plasma, electrobeam, laser, etc. methods) will create a technological base for

manufacturing sensors and low-friction couples in micro and

nano scale

Development of devices and research and process tools for

nanotechnologie and micro- and nanorobotics will enable start of their production in an industrial

scale

MACROTOPICS DELPHI THESES

PANEL’S MACROPRIORITIES

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2.3. Development of Delphi theses Due to a wide range, considerable thematic differentiation of the scope of panels, and taking

into account limitations of using the Delphi method (number of theses within one questionnaire should not exceed 30), it was decided that thematic groups will be distinguished and separate questionnaires will be prepared for each of them. Three separate, but mutually complementary groups of thematic panels, were established: • Group for environmental protection and natural resources; • Technological group; and, • Socio-economic group.

Each group of panels was to prepare lists of 15-20 macropriorities for each group and identify needs, which should be met thanks to the realisation of particular macropriorities. The next task concerned development for the proposed macropriorities of Delphi theses and the preparation of complementary questions for each thesis concerning, among others: the importance of the thesis, the expected results and barriers for the thesis realisation and time horizon. Particular attention was paid to the fact that a thesis should indicate in which way (with the use of what technologies, methods, procedures) it will be possible to realise the objective formulated in the macropriority and to the fact that the thesis must be important from the point of increasing economic competitiveness. Moreover, it was indicated that theses, created within the framework of The National Foresight Programme, should first of all include issues that are new challenges, technologies at the initial phase of development, still not dominant but dynamically growing, or technologies whose emergence is forecasted in the nearest future covered by the time frames of NFP “Polska 2020.”

As a result of the task execution, a final version of Delphi theses in three groups of panels was prepared. Two rounds of Delphi were carried out, and results were analysed by the opinion poll institution PENTOR.47 Exemplary results of Delphi are presented in Fig. 7.

47Pentor Research International, Warsaw

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Delphi thesis: Nanomaterials and nanotechnologies will create a technological base for the creation of a new generation mechatronic subassemblies on an industrial scale.

3

81%

68%

54%

51%

42%

35%

28%

15%

16%

23%

34%

37%

34%

29%

31%

21%

26%

20%

1%

5%

11%

20%

10%

4%

12%

2%

4%

8%

1%

1%

1%

9%

3%

4%

6%

15%

34%

1%Increase in economy effectiveness

Importance of Poland's economic position on theinternational scale

Increase in the scope of results commercialisation

Improvement of quality of life

Beneficial influence on the environment

Improvement of health

Increase in employment

Increase in the country's spatial and social coherence

[4] Yes [3] Rather yes [2] Rather no [1] No Don't know

What effects, in your opinion, will be caused by the thesis realisation?

N=295

4

91%

82%

76%

19%

12%

12%

4%

3%

3%

13%

6%

11%

8%

24%

16%

15%

5%

5%

5%

7%

30%

42%

1%

4%

18%

6%

16%

14%

12%

19%

9%

28%

18%

24%

9%

15%

16%

32%

20%

2%

28%

9%

26%

32%

20%

21%

10%

2%1%

43%

21%

11%

16%

4%

1%

4,8

4,7

4,4

3,5

2,8

2,8

2,6

2,6

2,2

2,1

Scientific potential

Human competencies

Technical capacities

Social acceptance

Group interests

Ethical barriers

Current legal regulations

Natural resources barriers

Limited demand

Costs of realisation

[5] Positive influence [4] Small positive influence [3] Lack of influence [2] Small negative influence [1] Negative influence Don't know

How will the following factors influence the thesis realisation?

Average

N=295

N – number of respondents Fig. 7. Exemplary results of Delphi. Source: The results of the first round of Delphi. Technological issues. Research Area “Sustainable Development of Poland.” National Foresight Programme “Polska 2020.” Research International PENTOR, May 2008.

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2.4. Development of scenarios

Delphi results make a decisive input to the currently executed stage of work concerning the creation of scenarios. The following assumptions were made in the course of developing scenarios: • Scenarios comprise visions of the future together with reference to three fields of the

Research Area ”Sustainable Development of Poland” - environmental protection and natural resources, technologies, and socio-economic trends.

• Three scenarios will be created for the Research Area ”Sustainable Development of Poland,” which will make the input to the development of the cores of three scenarios for the whole Programme NFP “Polska 2020.”

• The year 2020 was assumed as the time horizon of scenarios. It was proposed to create scenarios with the use of two courses of concurrently executed

activities concerning the selection of priority technologies and the selection of key driving forces (Fig. 8).

Fig. 8. The scheme of the development of scenarios. Source: The authors’ own elaboration.

Selection of key

driving forces Selection of priority

technologies

Scenarios development

Scenario A- technology a1 - technology a2 - technology a3

… - technology an

Scenario C- technology c1 - technology c2 - technology c3

… - technology cp

Scenario B- technology b1 - technology b2 - technology b3

… - technology bm

Key driving force B

∑ an +bm +cp ≤ 30

Ecological group Socio-economic Technological group

Research Area Panel “Sustainable Development of Poland”

group

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The methodology assumes the selection of priority technologies thanks to intentional shortening of the list of technologies covered by Delphi. To achieve this objective, an original element was introduced into the analysis of Delphi results consisting in preparing a ranking of theses, taking into consideration the following initially set parameters: “an increase in economic competitiveness,” and “the improvement of the quality of life,” which are key parameters with respect to NFP “Polska 2020.” The following assumptions were made: • From amongst all priority technologies, 20-30 will be selected, which largely contribute to the

achievement of expected results; • In a group of 20-30 theses in the Research Area “Sustainable Development of Poland,” a

similar number of theses from each group of panels (ca. 10) will be included. Technologies, which obtained a high score in the range of both parameters, are shown in the list of priority technologies (Fig. 9).

Fig. 9. Results of the prioritisation of the theses.

Group of panels 2

Group of panels 1

Group of panels 3

20-30 Delphi theses

Increase in economy

competitiveness

YES

RATHER YES

NIE RATHER YES YES Improvement of

quality of life

Source: The authors’ own elaboration After prioritisation, selected technologies are gathered in three subsets, corresponding with

thematic areas of groups of panels within the Research Area Panel “Sustainable Development of Poland.” An analysis of opportunities and threats concerning the development of priority technologies and strengths and weaknesses of institutions currently or potentially realising these technologies is carried out with the use of the SWOT method.

The second course of activities that have been completed comprises the selection of key driving forces in the assumed time horizon substantially influencing the development of selected priority technologies.

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Driving forces take into account the following: − STEEPV aspects with strong influence on the Research Area “Sustainable Development of

Poland:” and, − Influences assumed as uncertain and disputable by specialists in the area of “Sustainable

Development of Poland.” With the use of the STEEPV method, a list of driving forces influencing the area “Sustainable

Development of Poland” is developed. In this task, the results of the PEST analysis and discussions of groups of Thematic Panels were used. Thematic Panels complemented the list, eliminated less important factors and indicated the crucial ones. The next stage of work comprises the creation of a direct influence matrix for the identification of relations among driving forces followed by their computer analysis by means of the software MIC-MAC.48 Execution of this stage enables the identification of 5-6 potential key driving forces, characterised simultaneously by a large extent of uncertainty (which translates into the unpredictable direction of development) and the potential, decisive impact on the investigated area (Sustainable Development of Poland), from amongst which, as a result of discussion in groups of panels a pair of the most important, according to experts, driving forces are selected (Fig. 10).

Fig. 10. Analysis of driving forces in the aspect of an extent of uncertainty and impact on the investigated area. Source: The authors’ own elaboration 48 Arcade, J., Godet, M., Meunier, F. Roubelat, F.: Analysis with the MICMAC Method & Actors’ Strategy

with MACTOR Method, AC/UNU Millennium Project Futures Research Methodology, 1994.

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Selection of key driving forces and the prioritisation of technologies are the bases for developing scenarios with the use of the scenario – axes technique (Fig. 11).

Key driving force B

Key driving force A

Scenario B (A+B+)

Scenario C

(A+B-)

Scenario A

(A-B+)

Scenario D

(A-B-) not considered in the process

of preparing future development visions of Poland

Fig. 11. Identification of the frames of developing scenarios. Source: The authors’ own elaboration

The developed methodology assumes identification of technologies that are, to the largest extent, favourable for the realisation of the three detailed scenarios and the execution of an analysis of selected priority technologies in the aspect of determining their mutual relations. The identified relations may have the following forms: linked, excluding, and alternative technologies.

Linked technologies are grouped with taking into consideration the time horizon, when they may emerge or start to develop dynamically. Moreover, possible alternative technologies are indicated and excluding technologies are eliminated. In this way, mainly with the use of analytical data, operational, base scenarios are developed. A final stage of work comprises the preparation of descriptive scenarios in direct co-operation with a group of multispecialists (Fig. 12). Recommendations concerning the desired strategic directions of activity on the scale of governmental administration constitute an important part of the scenarios.

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Steering Committee

Main Panel

Research Area 1

Research Area 3

Research Area 2

Scenario S3

Scenario S2

Scenario S1

S 3.3.

S 1.1.

S 1.2.

S 1.3.

S 2.1.

S 2.2.

S 2.3.

S 3.1.

S 3.2.

approval S ij (i, j 1-3) – scenarios developed by the Research Area Panels S 1-3 – scenarios developed by the Main Panel Fig. 12. The scheme of scenarios development in NFP “Polska 2020.” Source: The authors’ elaboration.

The assumptions of the National Foresight Programme “Polska 2020” concerning the indication of priority research and development directions and building scenarios, because of the assumed levels of generality, do not enable the characterisation of priority technologies in details. To be able to select effectively the directions of research and development, it is necessary to possess information concerning the possibilities of developing and implementing particular technologies or their groups, taking into account specific development possibilities and barriers. These types of activities could be a useful supplement of NFP “Polska 2020.”49

49 Thus, a project proposal “Advanced industrial and ecological technologies for the country’s sustainable

development” has been submitted within the Operational Programme “Innovative Economy”, financed within EU structural funds, by the consortium co-ordinated by the Institute for Sustainable Technologies – National Research Institute and the authors of the article. The aim of the project is to supplement and continue activities in the subject area covered by NFP “Polska 2020” in the field of concrete applications in a region, sector and corporation.

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3. Results and policy impact Work that has been carried out so far within the Research Area “Sustainable Development

of Poland” in NFP “Polska 2020” caused considerable difficulties. The first difficulty of essential importance for the quality of executed work concerns methodological and organisational problems. The majority of experts participated in a foresight project for the first time and have insufficient knowledge about the methodology applied in this type of project. Although experts were provided by the Co-ordinating Consortium with basic information on the used methods and the timetable of work and were given methodological support during Thematic Panels meetings, it seems to be necessary to apply a more complex approach to this problem in the future. The Co-ordinating Consortium only outline the general methodology of NFP “Polska 2020,” and the details of its realisations are systematically developed by heads of particular Research Area Panels, which causes that each of them works in a slightly different way. Activities within the Programme are not systematised, and they do not cover all needs of experts concerning methodological support.

Another problem, also influencing the quality of work, was the composition of Thematic Panels. It was assumed that experts would represent different disciplines and spheres of the economy: scientific-research institutions, enterprises, professional associations, public administration and political parties. However, in the majority of panels, scientists have a considerable advantage both with respect to the number of experts and their activeness. Moreover, young people are in the minority in Thematic Panels. Thus, to cope with these problems, there are activities undertaken aimed at including representatives of the economy and public administration into the project, both as internal experts of panels and external experts, with whom the achieved results are discussed. It will enable the achievement of more reliable outcomes.

It can be stated on the basis of experiences from the Programme execution, that it is necessary to precisely determine the requirements concerning the percentage share of representatives of particular groups in Thematic Panels and start work only after establishing panels meeting the project’s objectives. Such an approach should ensure the differentiated composition of Thematic Panels. In case, when in the course of work an insufficient activeness of representatives of one group of experts is observed, then it is necessary to include external experts representing this group.

Another problem influencing the effectiveness of using the results of NFP “Polska 2020” is the fact that in Poland, concurrently with the National Foresight Programme, and even before its start, regional (9 projects) and sectoral foresight projects (10 projects) were conducted.50 They are focused on applicative solutions. Some of them are directed towards setting the directions of technological development in selected disciplines, e.g. the project “Directions of materials technologies development for the needs of the aviation cluster “Aviation Valley,””51 and directed towards the development of regional innovation strategies, e.g. the project LORIS WIZJA.52 The start of regional and sectoral foresight projects before the national programme is an approach methodologically unjustified. These projects should be inspired by, and consistent with, general guidelines of the national programme and should be based on its results. The current situation results in a lack of effective connections of regional and sectoral projects with NFP “Polska

50 Jasiński L. J., Myślenie perspektywiczne. Uwarunkowania badań przyszłości typu foresight, Instytut

Nauk Ekonomicznych Polskiej Akademii Nauk, Warsaw 2007. 51 Sectoral project executed by the Aviation Valley Association, www.dolinalotnicza.pl. 52 Regional technological foresight – University of Lodz, www.lorisplus.pl

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http://www.dolinalotnicza.pl/

http://www.lorisplus.pl/



2020” and of individual regional projects, among others a lack of: • Considering results of national foresight in regional projects; • Coherence concerning the scope of projects (a lack of co-operation among regional projects); • Methodological coherence (unified methodology of regional, sectoral and national foresight

projects); • Logical coherence of the principles of the execution of individual projects and their budgets;

and, • Coherence of dates of executing the National Foresight Programme and regional projects.

Moreover, regional projects are characterised by a lack of representation in the aspect of the county’s regions in which projects are carried out (selected regions, a lack of consideration of the policy of the whole region development) and in the aspect of involved experts (the dominant role of universities and scientific institutions, and a relatively weak share of experts representing business, administration and young people).

At the same time, a positive role of executed foresight projects should be emphasised. They play an important role in the activation of scientific and industrial circles towards generating topics of future research and development and inspiring regional co-operation. Moreover, they enable the achievement of practical experience and support the creation of a content-related and methodological base for foresight projects in the future. Furthermore, they favour dissemination of the culture of planning economic and social future in Poland at the regional, sectoral and national level.

The approach proposed by the authors takes into consideration a superior role of the National Foresight Programme, which covers mainly issues that are new challenges – already existing or new ones. Regional and sectoral projects, taking into consideration advanced technologies – already existing and currently dominant ones and methods, which could be implemented in a particular region or sector, should be based on the results of national programmes. The next step comprises the dissemination of the culture of planning the future at the level of technologically advanced firms and strategic national research institute in a form of corporate foresight. Preparation and execution of the next foresight projects within the Operational Programme “Innovative Economy 2007−2015” should have a particular importance for the popularisation of the idea of foresight in Poland.

Conclusions Two elements are of essential importance for ensuring effectiveness of foresight projects –

the methodology of the project and the selection of experts. The mentioned elements, to a large extent, depend on the detailed subject matter and scope of a project, planned duration, available financial and human resources, and the experience of a team of experts in using foresight methods. To ensure effective execution of the project, it is essential to develop a detailed methodology already at its initial stage, before starting the work of experts. Another important aspect is the methodological training of the participants of the programme. Moreover, methodological support should be provided at all stages of the project execution. It should comprise the development of clear and precise guidelines concerning particular stages of the project execution, supervision and assessment of correctness of work execution from the methodological point of view, participation of methodological experts in meetings of the group of multispecialists, and providing these experts with a possibility of constant contact with methodological experts. These types of activities would ensure the achievement of a coherent structure of results of individual expert panels working concurrently, an increase in the

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effectiveness of work of the group of multispecialists, who, thanks to methodological support, would prepare outcomes of their work in a form correct from a methodological point of view.

Selection of the group of multispecialists is, apart from the methodology, an essential element decisive for the success of the foresight project execution. It results from the analysis of foresight projects in strategic areas carried out in different countries and from experiences obtained in the course of participation in the National Foresight Programme “Polska 2020” that a generally recognised principle in national foresight projects is the inclusion in a project experts representing different disciplines and spheres of the economy. Despite common knowledge of this rule and agreement on its importance, selection of appropriate groups of experts is a problem in many projects. Although care of ensuring representation of the sphere of research and industry is observed in national foresight projects, there is still small number of representatives of the financial sector, public administration and political parties, necessary for the implementation of foresight results in practice in a form, e.g. launching research programmes or policies at the national level.

An additional aspect that needs consideration is the cyclical nature of the execution of foresight projects. They should not be conducted only ones. A cyclical process of carrying out foresight makes it possible to influence strategic decisions at the national level concerning research and technological directions and instruments to support their realisation.

adam mazurkiewicz, beata...

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