actions you can take in a volatile market

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Ameriprise Financial is the umbrella marketing name used by two separate and distinct broker-dealers of Ameriprise Financial, Inc.: Ameriprise Advisor Services, Inc. and Ameriprise Financial Services, Inc. Investments and financial advisory services are offered through Ameriprise Advisor Services, Inc., member NYSE/FINRA/SIPC, which is not affiliated with H&R Block, Inc. or any of its affiliates. Investments and financial planning services are offered through Ameriprise Financial Services, Inc., Member FINRA and SIPC. Some products and services described may not be available in all jurisdictions or to all clients. Actions You Can Take in a Volatile Market Now more than ever, you need a plan Bruce Gillen, CFP ® 6/21/2010

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Page 1: Actions You Can Take In A Volatile Market

Ameriprise Financial is the umbrella marketing name used by two separate and distinct broker-dealers of Ameriprise Financial, Inc.: Ameriprise Advisor Services, Inc. and Ameriprise Financial Services, Inc. Investments and financial advisory services are offered through Ameriprise Advisor Services, Inc., member NYSE/FINRA/SIPC, which is not affiliated with H&R Block, Inc. or any of its affiliates. Investments and financial planning services are offered through Ameriprise Financial Services, Inc., Member FINRA and SIPC. Some products and services described may not be available in all jurisdictions or to all clients. © 2009 Ameriprise Financial, Inc. All rights reserved.

Actions You Can Take in a Volatile MarketNow more than ever, you need a plan

Bruce Gillen, CFP®

6/21/2010

Page 2: Actions You Can Take In A Volatile Market

Today’s agenda

How we arrived where we are today

Putting today’s markets in historical perspective

Fundamental investment strategies to help you deal with and even find opportunity in volatile markets

Managing emotions as part of the investment process

Steps to consider taking now

Page 3: Actions You Can Take In A Volatile Market

Ameriprise Financial

What we learned in our 115-year history

More people come to Ameriprise Financial for financial planning than any other company*

Ameriprise is America’s largest financial planning company*

* Based on the number of financial plans annually disclosed in Form ADV, Part 1A, Item 5, available at adviserinfo.sec.gov as of December 31, 2007, and the number of CFP® professionals documented by the Certified Financial Planner Board of Standards, Inc.

Page 4: Actions You Can Take In A Volatile Market

Our four cornerstones

Page 5: Actions You Can Take In A Volatile Market

What’s been driving recent market volatility?

An oversupply of lending which drove up home values and resulted in the eventual collapse of the U.S. housing market

Repercussions from the subprime mortgage crisis which spread to global capital markets

The residual impact of the current credit crisis and the follow-on effect it has had on the global economy

Page 6: Actions You Can Take In A Volatile Market

I read the news today

> Real estate prices collapse

> Largest one-day loss in the Dow Jones Industrial Average

> Sub-prime bond market collapses, real estate continues to decline, credit dries up, savings institutions weaken

> Government bailout is enacted. Billions of taxpayer dollars spent to deal with failing lending institutions

> Recession sets in leading to another stock market decline

1987-1991

Page 7: Actions You Can Take In A Volatile Market

The “flaw” of averages

S&P 500 Annual Returns 1926-2009

Source: Ibbotson for 1926 to 1969; Standard & Poor’s, 1970 to present.

Page 8: Actions You Can Take In A Volatile Market

Measuring volatility

S&P 500 stock index 1979-2009:

• Average return is about 11%

• Standard deviation (volatility) has been about 15%

• Range of returns is about 41% to -19%

• Probability range is 95% — returns can be worse (or better) than those shown here

11%

26%

41%

-4%

-19%

Source: S&P 500. The S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged index commonly used to measure stock performance. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Page 9: Actions You Can Take In A Volatile Market

The stock market has delivered over the long term

From 1970 through 2009, the S&P 500 has returned an average of 9.87% per year

Returns in a given calendar year ranged from -37% to +37%

Below -20% -20% – -10% -10% – 0% 0% – +10% +10% – +20% Over +20%

2008 2001 2000 2007 2006 2003 1983

2002 1973 1990 2005 2004 1999 1982

1974 1981 1994 1988 1998 1980

1977 1993 1986 1997 1975

1992 1979 1996 2009

1987 1976 1995

1984 1972 1991

1978 1971 1989

1970 1985

Source: Standard & Poor’s 500 Index. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Standard & Poor's 500 Index (S&P 500 Index) is an unmanaged list of common stocks which includes 500 large companies, and is frequently used as a general measure of market performance. The index reflects reinvestment of all distributions and changes in the market prices, but excludes brokerage commissions or other fees. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Page 10: Actions You Can Take In A Volatile Market

Historical range of returns of S&P 500: 1970-2009

1 year 5 years 10 years 20 years

61

30 19 18

7

-2-7

-43

Source: Standard and Poor’s 500 Index. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Market Index (S&P 500) is an unmanaged list of common stocks frequently used as a measure of market performance. The index reflects reinvestment of all distributions and changes in market prices, but excludes brokerage commissions or other fees. The highest return is represented by the top of each bar and the lowest annual return is shown at the bottom. The rolling 5-,10- and 20-year ranges are also shown. Over time, lower performing years will be offset by higher performing years and vice versa. Therefore the range of the historical returns over the entire period is narrower than the range of returns in any single year. Returns over 1 year in length are annualized. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Page 11: Actions You Can Take In A Volatile Market

Returns by decade

Source: Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P 500). S&P 500 Index returns assume reinvestment of all dividends and capital gains. The S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged index commonly used to measure stock market performance. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Decade# of years

down # of years up 0–18% # of years up 18%+Average annual return for

decade

1920s 3 2 5 8.77%

1930s 6 0 4 -0.05%

1940s 3 2 5 9.17%

1950s 2 2 6 19.35%

1960s 3 4 3 7.81%

1970s 3 3 4 5.86%

1980s 1 3 6 17.55%

1990s 1 3 6 18.20%

2000-2009 4 42 -0.94%

Average 2.9 2.64.6 9.52%

Page 12: Actions You Can Take In A Volatile Market

Where we stand in the current decade

-9%

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

-5

-10

-15

-20

-25

-30

-35

-40

-12%

-23%

28%

11%

5%

16%

5%

26%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Source: Standard and Poor’s 500 Index. Annual Returns of S&P 500 Index, 2000-2008, assuming reinvestment of dividends. The S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged index commonly used to measure stock market performance. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

-37%

Page 13: Actions You Can Take In A Volatile Market

Comparing this decade to others

Annualized performance of the S&P 500

20

15

10

5

0

-5

Source: Standard and Poor’s 500 Index. S&P 500 Index returns assume reinvestment of all dividends and capital gains. The S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged index commonly used to measure stock market performance. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

19%

20s 30s 40s 50s 60s 70s 80s 90s 00s(1925 – 1929) (2000 – 2009)

9%

-0.05%

9%8%

6%

18%

-1%

18%

Page 14: Actions You Can Take In A Volatile Market

Long-term investing strategies

Diversify to manage business, market, and interest rate risk

Rebalance your portfolio if it is appropriate

Consider the current and future tax ramifications of your actions

Dollar-cost average to keep your investment strategy on track

Manage your emotions by following a disciplined plan based on solid fundamentals, not emotion

Dollar-cost averaging involves continuous investment in securities, regardless of fluctuating price levels. Investors should consider their ability to continue purchases through periods of low price levels. Diversification and asset allocation help spread risk throughout your portfolio, so that investments that do poorly may be balanced by others that do relatively better. Dollar-cost averaging, diversification and asset allocation do not guarantee overall portfolio profit or protect against loss in declining markets. Neither Ameriprise Financial nor its representatives or affiliates provide tax or legal advice. Consult with your tax advisor or attorney regarding specific issues.

Page 15: Actions You Can Take In A Volatile Market

Historic volatility by standard deviation

S&P 500 Stock Index1976-2009 11%

26%

41%

-4%

-19%

Barclays Capital Aggregate Bond Index (formerly Lehman Aggregate Bond Index) 1976-2009

Stocks

Bonds20%

14%

8%

3%

-3%

Source: PAG. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Barclays Capital Aggregate Bond Index (formerly Lehman Brothers Aggregate Bond Index), an unmanaged index, is made up of a representative list of government, corporate, asset-backed and mortgage-backed securities. The index is frequently used as a general measure of bond market performance. Standard & Poor's 500 Index (S&P 500 Index), an unmanaged list of common stocks, is frequently used as a general measure of market performance. The index reflects reinvestment of all distributions and changes in market prices, but excludes brokerage commissions or other fees. You can not invest directly in an index.

Page 16: Actions You Can Take In A Volatile Market

Diversification options

Asset classes (stocks, bonds, cash, real estate, etc.)

Investment products (e.g. mutual funds, annuities, ETFs)

Tax characteristics (taxable, tax-deferred, tax-free)

Diversification helps you spread risk throughout your portfolio, so that investments that do poorly may be balanced by others that do relatively better. Diversification and asset allocation do not guarantee overall portfolio profit or protection against loss.

Page 17: Actions You Can Take In A Volatile Market

Barclays Capital Aggregate Bond Index (formerly Lehman Brothers Aggregate Bond Index)

Diversification can temper market volatility

Performance of Stocks, Bonds and 50/50 Mix 1990 to 2009

1990 1999

S&P 500 Index 50/50 Mix

2009

Source: Standard and Poor’s, Barclay’s Capital. Combined returns based on calculation of 50% of S&P 500 return, 50% of Barclays Capital Aggregate Bond Index return. Past performance does not guarantee future results. These examples do not reflect sales charges, taxes or other costs associated with investing. Barclays Capital Aggregate Bond Index (formerly Lehman Brothers Aggregate Bond Index), an unmanaged index, is made up of a representative list of government, corporate, asset-backed and mortgage-backed securities. The index is frequently used as a general measure of bond market performance. Standard & Poor's 500 Index (S&P 500 Index), an unmanaged list of common stocks, is frequently used as a general measure of market performance. The index reflects reinvestment of all distributions and changes in market prices, but excludes brokerage commissions or other fees. You can not invest directly in an index.

Page 18: Actions You Can Take In A Volatile Market

Rebalancing can keep you on plan

Initial allocation Rebalance backOne year later

50% Bonds

50% Stocks

50% Stocks

50% Bonds

40% Bonds

60% Stocks

Diversification helps you spread risk throughout your portfolio, so that investments that do poorly may be balanced by others that do relatively better. Diversification and asset allocation do not guarantee overall portfolio profit or protection against loss.

Page 19: Actions You Can Take In A Volatile Market

Dollar-cost averaging – price rises

Average price: $15.00 Average cost: $14.19

Invested amount: $6,000.00Ending value: $8,456.40

Dollar-cost averaging does not guarantee a profit or protect against losses in a declining market. Investors should consider their ability to continue investing during periods of low markets. This illustration is hypothetical and is not a forecast or guarantee of specific investment results.

$25

$20

$15

$10

$5

$01 2 3 4 5 6

Page 20: Actions You Can Take In A Volatile Market

Dollar-cost averaging – market down, then recovers

Average price: $15.00 Average cost: $13.85

Invested amount: $6,000.00Ending value: $8,666.80

Dollar-cost averaging does not guarantee a profit or protect against losses in a declining market. Investors should consider their ability to continue investing during periods of low markets. This illustration is hypothetical and is not a forecast or guarantee of specific investment results.

$25

$20

$15

$10

$5

$01 2 3 4 5 6

Page 21: Actions You Can Take In A Volatile Market

Dollar-cost averaging – market down, partial rebound

Average price: $10.83 Average cost: $9.73

Invested amount: $6,000.00Ending value: $7,166.70

Dollar-cost averaging does not guarantee a profit or protect against losses in a declining market. Investors should consider their ability to continue investing during periods of low markets. This illustration is hypothetical and is not a forecast or guarantee of specific investment results.

$25

$20

$15

$10

$5

$01 2 3 4 5 6

Page 22: Actions You Can Take In A Volatile Market

Three different markets — three positive results

Total invested – $6,000 in monthly $1,000 increments

Dollar-cost averaging does not guarantee a profit or protect against losses in a declining market. Investors should consider their ability to continue investing during periods of low markets. This illustration is hypothetical and is not a forecast or guarantee of specific investment results.

$10,000

$7,500

$5,000 Market goes up

$8,456

Market down:full recovery

$8,667

Market down:partial recovery

$7,167

Page 23: Actions You Can Take In A Volatile Market

Understanding emotional investing

Optimism

Relief

Hope“Things may be turning around.”

Excitement

Thrill

Optimism

“Wow, I ammaking money.I feel good about this investment.”

Euphoria A high point of financial risk

Fear

Denial“This is just a temporary setback.”

Desperation

Anxiety

PanicCapitulation

Despondency“I think I need to sell.”

Depression

A low point of financial opportunity

Source: Radarwire.com. A product of Simon Economic Systems, Ltd.

Page 24: Actions You Can Take In A Volatile Market

The average equity investor lags the market

Equity market returns v. equity mutual fund investors’ returns

0%

4%

8%

12%

16%

Source: Dalbar, Inc., 2009 Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behavior for the period (1988 - 2008). Benchmark returns represented by total returns of the S&P 500. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Market Index (S&P 500) is an unmanaged list of common stocks frequently used as a measure of market performance. You can not invest directly in an index.

S&P 500 Index

8.4%

1.9%2.9%

Average equityFund investor

Inflation

Page 25: Actions You Can Take In A Volatile Market

Benefits of a personalized financial plan

Focuses on your goals, not short-term market conditions

Assesses your risk tolerance

Employs time-tested disciplines to dampen market volatility, such as rebalancing, dollar-cost averaging and opportunity purchases

Takes taxes into consideration

Helps you neutralize the inclination to make emotional investment decisions

Provides for review and rebalancing on a regular basis

A financial plan can help you feel more on track during market turmoil**The Financial Planning Association® (FPA®) and Ameriprise® Value of Financial Planning Study, was conducted by Harris Interactive in June/July, 2008 among 3,022 adults. While market volatility was significant during the study period, subsequent financial developments, which may have affected attitudes and behaviors, had not yet occurred. No estimates of theoretical sampling error can be calculated; a full methodology is available.Dollar-cost averaging involves continuous investment in securities, regardless of fluctuating price levels. Investors should consider their ability to continue purchases through periods of low price levels. Diversification and asset allocation help spread risk throughout your portfolio, so that investments that do poorly may be balanced by others that do relatively better. Dollar-cost averaging, diversification and asset allocation do not guarantee overall portfolio profit or protect against loss in declining markets. Neither Ameriprise Financial nor its representatives or affiliates provide tax or legal advice. Consult with your tax advisor or attorney regarding specific issues.

Page 26: Actions You Can Take In A Volatile Market

Steps you can take

Page 27: Actions You Can Take In A Volatile Market

Six steps to consider taking now

1. Diversify, diversify, diversify

2. Rebalance or review your asset allocation

3. Dollar-cost average

4. Avoid market timing, but prepare for opportunities

5. Don’t let your emotions affect your financial future

6. Get or review your financial plan

Dollar-cost averaging involves continuous investment in securities, regardless of fluctuating price levels. Investors should consider their ability to continue purchases through periods of low price levels. Diversification and asset allocation help spread risk throughout your portfolio, so that investments that do poorly may be balanced by others that do relatively better. Dollar-cost averaging, diversification and asset allocation do not guarantee overall portfolio profit or protect against loss in declining markets. Neither Ameriprise Financial nor its representatives or affiliates provide tax or legal advice. Consult with your tax advisor or attorney regarding specific issues.

Page 28: Actions You Can Take In A Volatile Market

Six steps to consider taking now

1. Diversify, diversify, diversify

2. Rebalance or review your asset allocation

3. Dollar-cost average

4. Avoid market timing, but prepare for opportunities

5. Don’t let your emotions affect your financial future

Dollar-cost averaging involves continuous investment in securities, regardless of fluctuating price levels. Investors should consider their ability to continue purchases through periods of low price levels. Diversification and asset allocation help spread risk throughout your portfolio, so that investments that do poorly may be balanced by others that do relatively better. Dollar-cost averaging, diversification and asset allocation do not guarantee overall portfolio profit or protect against loss in declining markets. Neither Ameriprise Financial nor its representatives or affiliates provide tax or legal advice. Consult with your tax advisor or attorney regarding specific issues.

Page 29: Actions You Can Take In A Volatile Market

Next steps

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Let’s get started.

Financial planning services and investments offered through Ameriprise Financial Services, Inc. Member FINRA and SIPC.

© 2008-2009 Ameriprise Financial, Inc. All rights reserved.

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