Weekly Chart BookSeptember 30, 2013

Global Clients…Global Portfolios

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Accuvest Weekly Update

Global Financial Conditions

• Following the Fed’s surprise “No Taper” decision last week, bonds have rallied while stocks have sold off

• Macro Risk and Financial Market Stress have moderated nicely this month

• The VIX Index (implied S&P 500 volatility) closed @ 15.46, up from 13.12 last week

• This week – Gold, Treasuries, and the Yen rallied, while Equities, Oil, and EM Currencies struggled

Global Equity Markets

• The MSCI All Country World Index dropped 0.7% this week, backing away from all-time highs but still above primary support

• The S&P 500 dropped 1.1% this week, and has underperform the ACWI, EAFE, and EM Indices over the last 3 months

• The MSCI Emerging Markets Index dropped 2.0% this week, backing away from short-term over bought levels

• Healthcare and Consumer Discretionary are the best performing Global Sectors year-to-date

• Basic Materials and Utilities are the worst performing Global Sectors year-to-date

Interest Rates and Fixed Income

• 10 year US Treasury Yields closed the week at 2.63%, down from 2.74% last week and 3.00% on Sept. 6th

• 10 year US Treasury Yields are forecasted to be 2.66% at the end of Q3 2013, and 2.85% at the end of Q4 2013

• Investment Grade Bonds rallied 0.8% this week. They have broken out of a 4 month downtrend and are back above the 50DMA

• High Yield Bonds sold off 0.6% this week, but remain above upward sloping 50 day and 200 day moving averages

• Average 30 Year Mortgage Rates @ 4.28%, down from 4.42% last week and 4.67% on Sept. 5th

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Accuvest Weekly Update

The Economy

• Housing/Real Estate and Labor Market continue to highlight the US Economy

• Next week’s U.S. economic calendar includes ISM Manufacturing (55.1), ADP Employment (+176k), Factory Order (+0.2%), and Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (+180k)

Major Currencies

• The Pound(+7%), Euro(+6%), Krone(+6%), and Franc(+5%) have appreciated vs. the US Dollar over the last 6 months

• The Indonesian Rupiah(-14)%, Indian Rupee(-13%), and Aussie Dollar(-11%) have depreciated vs. the US Dollar over the last 6 months

• The Mexican Peso (+3.6%) and Turkish Lira (+0.8%) are forecasted to appreciate vs. the US Dollar through the end of 2013

• The Swiss Franc(-5.6%) and Danish Krone(-5.3%) are forecasted to depreciate vs. the US Dollar through the end of 2013

• MXN/USD @ 13.14, weakening from 12.85 last week

Commodities

• Commodities (an equally weighted basket) remain in a 5 year down trend

• Gold @ $1336/oz., up from $1326/oz. last week

• Crude Oil @ $102.87/barrel, down from $104.67/barrel last week, and $110.53 on Sept 6th

disclosure: The opinions expressed in this Weekly Chart Book report are those of the author. The materials and commentary are strictly informational and should be used for research use only. This bulletin is not intended to provide investing or other advice or guidance with respect to the matters addressed in the bulletin. All relevant facts, including individual circumstances, need to be considered by the reader to arrive at investment conclusions that comply with matters addressed in this bulletin. Charts and information used in this report are sourced from Bloomberg.

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Developed Markets

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Emerging Markets

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US Financial Conditions

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The VIX Index (S&P 500 Implied Volatility)

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Global Financial Stress Index

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Citi Macro Risk Index

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US Yield Curve (Current vs. 1 Month & 12 Months Ago)

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U.S. Treasury 10 Year Yield

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U.S. Treasury 10 Year Yield – Forecast

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Fed’s 5 Year Forward Breakeven (Inflation Expectations)

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Investment Grade Bond Prices

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Investment Grade Credit Spread (BBB – 10 Yr. UST Yield)

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High Yield Bond Prices

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High Yield Credit Spreads (HY – 10 Yr. UST Yield)

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Emerging Market Debt (Local Currency)

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Emerging Market Bond Spreads

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World Equity Indices

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MSCI All Country World Index

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S&P 500 Index

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MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) Index

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MSCI Emerging Markets Index

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Equity Risk Premiums by Country

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AGO Constituents – Japan, China, USA, Germany, & Austria

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AGO Attribution – Japan, China, USA, Germany, & Austria

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AGO Performance vs. ACWI

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Global Heat Map – Sectors & Regions YTD

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S&P 500 Earnings Estimates (Forward 12 Months)

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ACWI Earnings Estimates (Forward 12 Months)

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Last week’s Economic Calendar

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Next week’s Economic Calendar

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Economic Surprise Monitor (Deviations from Expectations)

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US Economic Surprise Index (Deviation from Expectations)

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30 Year Mortgage Rates

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Initial Jobless Claims – 4 Week Moving Average

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World Currencies vs. U.S. Dollar (6 Month Spot Returns)

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World Currencies vs. U.S. Dollar (Spot Forecast: Q4 2013)

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Japanese Yen ¥

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Euro €

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Mexican Peso

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British Pound

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Australian Dollar

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Emerging Market Currencies

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Global Commodity Prices

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Continuous Commodity Index – 5 Years

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Gold Prices – 5 Years

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Gold Prices – 1 Year

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Gold to Gold Miners Ratio – 1 Year

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Crude Oil Prices – 5 Years

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Crude Oil Prices – 1 Year