i

ABSTRACT

Increasing rates of sea level rise caused by global warming are expected to lead to

permanent inundation, episodic flooding, beach erosion and saline intrusion in low-lying

coastal areas around the world. Sea level rise is perceived as a significant and growing

threat to the coastal communities, especially in Small Island Developing States (SIDS) in

the Caribbean since the coastal zone is a major focus of human habitation and economic

activity, as well as being important ecologically. As one SIDS, Trinidad is vulnerable to

the impacts of climate change and sea level rise. This study presents an assessment of the

expected impacts of sea level rise on one of the coastal communities of Trinidad, Grande

Riviere.

Sea level rise scenarios based on present measurements and global scenarios are

projected in the future for the next 100 years and applied to digital elevation models to

produce maps in order to illustrate the potential socio-economic impact of sea level rise

on Grande Riviere. Semi-structured interviews and collected demographic data, land use

datasets, property values, visitor statistics, occupancy rates and revenue values are used

to determine the current socio-economic conditions of Grande Riviere. The analysis uses

socio-economic conditions drawn from these surveys to inform the evaluation. In this

report the focus is on sea level rise on tourism, agriculture and fisheries sectors, all of

which are major economic drivers typical of SIDS.

The results of this research suggest that both the livelihood of Grande Riviere community

and the natural environment of the coastal zone are likely to be significantly affected by

the anticipated sea level rise. Tourism operations which are the centre of many of the

economic activities in the community may be affected the most by the projected sea level

rise. The results of this study are important because it informs the level of vulnerability of

Grande Riviere to effects of sea level. These findings strongly suggest the need to

ii

develop optimum adaptation strategies so as to minimize the impact of sea level rise has

on the coastal resources of the area, in terms of, social disruption, economic costs and

environmental impacts.

iii

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

Firstly, I would like to thank my heavenly father for allowing me to complete this project,

for his knowledge and wisdom, and guidance through this semester. Thank you for life

and for giving me an opportunity to gain tertiary level education.

I express my deepest gratitude to my supervisor Dr. Sutherland, for guiding me through

this project. Thank you for your time and support throughout the duration of this project.

I also express my deepest gratitude to Dr. Neale who has guided step by step through this

project and has been of the most help to me. Thank you for giving of your time, patience,

support and encouragement and for this I am indebted to him.

I would like to thank the community of Grande Riviere for participating in the interview

process, for providing me with data needed for the analysis of the project and for

welcoming my classmates and I into their community.

Last but certainly not least I would like to thank my family and friends for supporting me

in all my endeavors. For being there for me in my time of need and in all the ways they

helped me. Thank you for being an inspiration for me to strive to always to be better and

to perform to the best of my ability.

iv

Table of Contents

ABSTRACT......................................................................................................................... i

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ............................................................................................... iii

LIST OF FIGURES ......................................................................................................... viii

LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................................................. ix

CHAPTER 1 ....................................................................................................................... 1

INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................... 1

1.1 Background ........................................................................................................... 1

1.2 Study Area ............................................................................................................ 5

1.4 Problem Statement ................................................................................................ 8

1.5 Research Question ................................................................................................ 8

1.2 Aim ....................................................................................................................... 8

1.3 Objectives ............................................................................................................. 9

1.6 General Methodology ........................................................................................... 9

1.7 Structure of Report .............................................................................................. 10

v

CHAPTER 2 ..................................................................................................................... 11

LITERATURE REVIEW ............................................................................................. 11

2.1 Introduction ......................................................................................................... 11

2.2 Climate Change ................................................................................................... 11

2.3 Sea level rise and the social and economic impact ............................................. 12

2.4 Vulnerability of coastal communities ................................................................. 14

2.5 Global and Regional Impact (Caribbean Small Island Developing States) ........ 14

2.6 Uncertainty of the impacts of climate Change and sea level rise and the impacts

.................................................................................................................................. 16

2.7 Conclusion .......................................................................................................... 17

CHAPTER 3 ..................................................................................................................... 19

METHODOLOGY ....................................................................................................... 19

3.1 Methodology Approach ................................................................................ 19

3.2 Approach to Data Collection .............................................................................. 20

3.3 Survey of key stakeholders ................................................................................. 21

vi

3.4 Compilation of data on socio-economics, demography, land use and property

values ........................................................................................................................ 23

3.5 The manipulation of the data collected ............................................................... 24

3.6 Evaluation of the potential impacts of sea level rise scenarios ........................... 25

3.7 Limitations .......................................................................................................... 25

CHAPTER 4 ..................................................................................................................... 27

RESULTS ..................................................................................................................... 27

4.1 Introduction ......................................................................................................... 27

4.2 Fishing ................................................................................................................ 28

4.3 Coastal Tourism .................................................................................................. 29

4.3 Coastal conservation ........................................................................................... 36

4.4 Local coastline recreation ................................................................................... 38

CHAPTER 5 ..................................................................................................................... 45

ANALYSIS ................................................................................................................... 45

5.1 Introduction ......................................................................................................... 45

vii

5.2: 1 m sea level rise scenario ................................................................................. 46

5.3: 2.4m sea level rise scenario: .............................................................................. 47

5.4: 3.7m sea level rise scenario ............................................................................... 49

CHAPTER 6 ..................................................................................................................... 53

CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS ......................................................... 53

6.1 Conclusion .......................................................................................................... 53

6.2 Conclusions regarding the profile of the present socio-economic environment of

Grande Riviere specific to coastal resources ............................................................ 54

6.3 Conclusions regarding the relationship (in terms of dependency on coastal

resources) between the sea level rise and the socio-economic status-quo of the

Grande Riviere. ......................................................................................................... 54

6.4 Conclusion regarding the evaluation of the potential impact of sea level rise

scenarios on Grande Riviere. .................................................................................... 55

6.2 Recommendations ............................................................................................... 56

REFERENCES ................................................................................................................. 58

APPENDIX ....................................................................................................................... 61

viii

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1.1 - Global temperature record……………………………………..….3

Figure 1.2 - Global carbon dioxide emissions……………………………….…4

Figure 1.3- Sea level rise record…………………………………….…………..4

Figure 1.4 -Leather back turtle (Dermochelys Coriacea)………………………6

Figure 1.5 - Map of Trinidad and Tobago showing location of study area...…7

Figure 4.1- Percentage of hotel employees living in Grande Riviere………...30

Figure 4.2- Grande Riviere beach socio-economic use……………………….32

Figure 4.3- Grande Riviere Beach social use………………………....………39

Figure 4.4- Purposes for visiting Grande Rivier…………………...…………..40

Figure 4.5- Land use Map of Grande Riviere…………………………….……41

Figure 4.6- Land use Map of Grande Riviere showing 1 meter sea level rise..42

Figure 4.7- Land use Map of Grande Riviere showing 2.4 meters sea level rise..43

Figure 4.8- Land use Map of Grande Riviere showing 3.7 meters of sea level rise..44

ix

LIST OF TABLES

Table 4.1- Total number of visitors to Grande Riviere Annually………..…31

Table 4.2- Annual revenue generated by the Mount Plaisir Hotel………….33

Table 4.3- Number of guest at Mount Plaisir Hotel………………………….34

Table 4.4- Estimate of property values of the beach front hotel……………35.

Table 4.5- Occupancy rate of the hotels on the beachfront……………...…35

Table 4.6- Number of permits sold annually………………………………..37

Table 5.1- Potential Impacts of sea level rise scenarios………………...…..50

1

CHAPTER 1

INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background

The earth's climate is dynamic and ever changing through a natural cycle (Francisco et

al.,2009). Climate change is caused by both natural and anthropogenic factors

(International Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) 2007). Within recent years, the earth’s

temperature has increased significantly in the twentieth century and there have been

extremities in weather patterns, both of which have become a concern to scientists

(Institute for Global Climate and Ecology, Russia 2004). In the late 19th century,

worldwide the average temperature has been increasing between 0.4 to 0.8º C (Yoskowitz

et al.,2009) (refer to Figure 1.1). The last two decades are the warmest on record. Eleven

of the last twelve years were in the top twelve warmest global surface temperatures.

Global warming is on the rise and this is due an anthropogenic induced green house gas

concentration trapped in the atmosphere (IPCC 2007). The natural green house effect is

necessary to sustain life on the earth, however human activities including: burning of

fossil fuels (coal, oil and natural gas) and deforestation have caused an imbalance in the

natural cycle of the greenhouse effect (L. Sorenson 2007). Since the mid 1800s the

emissions of carbon dioxide increased drastically (Serreze et al. 2006), (refer to

Figure1.2). Carbon dioxide, though not the most potent of greenhouse gases, is the most

significant one (Unger et al. 2009). The burning of fossil fuel alone accounts for about

75% of the increase in CO2. Deforestation: the cutting and burning of forests accounts for

another 20% of the increase in CO2 in the atmosphere. (L. Sorenson 2007; Yoskowitz et

al., 2009).

2

One of the consequences climate change is sea level rise (US Global Change Research

Program 2003). Global warming leads to thermal expansion, which causes sea level rise.

The increases in sea level are consistent with warming (Climate Institute 2008). Sea level

rise is on a more gradual scale, the effects of sea level rise take a longer period of time to

realize (IPCC 2007). IPCC has high confidence that the rate of global mean sea level rise

increased between the mid-19th and 20th centuries. IPCC states "The average rate was 1.7

± 0.5 mm/ yr for the 20th century, 1.8 ± 0.5 mm/yr for 1961–2003, and 3.1 ± 0.7 mm/yr

for 1993–2003", (refer to Figure 1.3). Sea level is expected to rise 56 cm by 2100 (Patz

2000). IPCC (2007) stated that sea levels will rise between 0.18 and 0.59 meters as a

result of Global Warming. Coastal zones are particularly vulnerable to climate variability

and change. Currently, an estimated 23 percent of the world’s population (1.2 billion

people) lives within 100 kilometers (km) of a shoreline and 100 meters (m) of sea level

(Small and Nicholls 2003). Especially Small island developing states (SIDS) such as the

Caribbean are highly vulnerable to the impacts of sea level rise (World Meteorological

Organisation 2005). The impacts of sea level rise include: loss of land and property, loss

of infrastructure, loss of wetlands and ecosystems, erosion of beaches, intensified

flooding (storm surges), and increase in salinity of rivers, bays and groundwater tables.

(United States Environmental Protection Agency).

3

\

Figure 1.1: Global temperature Record

4

Figure 1.2: Global CO2 emissions 1751–2006

Figure 1.3: Records of sea level rise in the 20th Century

5

1.2 Study Area

Case Study (Study Area): Grande Riviere

Grande Riviere is a coastal community located along the north coast of Trinidad, (refer to

Figure 1.4) it is a popular tourist attraction known for the turtle nesting on the beach

which takes place during the season March to August. Grande Riviere’s beach is home to

the leatherback turtle (Dermochelys Coriacea). The community has developed from

having their economy based on fishing and agriculture to being more tourism oriented

(Information from respondents in interviews). Despite the village’s small size and

population the area is visited by thousands every year (Information obtained by Charmine

Bishop, personnel at the visitor centre). Visitors are both local and international. Tourism

is the major source of revenue and economic activity in the area (Information from

respondents in interviews). As with many coastal communities around the world, Grande

Riviere is particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change and sea level rise. The

main effects of climate change include coastal flooding, intensification of storms, salt

water intrusion, loss of wetlands and ecosystems, inundation, loss of infrastructure

(roads, buildings), loss of property and dwelling units. Climate change is likely to have

significant potential social and economic impact on the community.

6

Figure 1.4: Leatherback turtle (Dermochelys coriacea)

7

Figure 1.5: Map showing location of Case Study Grande Riviere

8

1.4 Problem Statement

Coastal communities around the world are highly vulnerable to the impacts of sea level

rise, especially those in Small Island Developing States. Grande Riviere in Trinidad is the

case study used to illustrate the impacts that sea level rise has on coastal communities in

Small Island Developing States. Sea level rise physical effects includes: coastal

inundation, beach erosion, intensified frequent storm surges, saline intrusion of coastal

wetlands (ecosystems). These physical effects of sea level rise have social and economic

implications for coastal communities. It is difficult to quantify the impacts of projected

sea level rise using data based on present day socio-economic conditions. Understanding

the coastal community level of vulnerability is important for informing and educating the

coastal populations of the risks of sea level rise and for developing adaptation strategies

to minimize the risk.

1.5 Research Question

1. Given the current estimates of sea level rise scenarios from IPCC predictions,

what is the potential impact of these sea level rise scenarios on the economic and

social aspects of the community at Grande Riviere?

1.2 Aim

This research project aims to assess the potential social and economic impact of sea level

rise on the coastal community of Grande Riviere, by examining the level of vulnerability

of the community to different sea level rise scenario predictions.

9

1.3 Objectives

1. To generate a generalised profile of the present economic and social environment

of Grande Riviere with specific reference to coastal resources.

2. To describe the relationship (in terms of dependency on coastal resources)

between the sea level rise and the socio-economic status-quo of the Grande

Riviere.

3. Given items 1 and 2 above, to evaluate the potential impact of sea level rise

scenarios on Grande Riviere.

1.6 General Methodology

A series of semi- structured interviews were conducted with key stake holders in the

community such as villagers, beach users, hotel management and hotel employees. The

interviews were designed based on the general topics that were important to the socio-

economic conditions of the Grande Riviere. These interviews were used in order to

develop a profile or description of Grande Riviere’s socio-economic aspects. Data from

the interviews were tabulated and graphs, pie charts and tables were produced to

represent the data in a graphical format.

Information on demography, property values and Hotel revenues, visitor statistics,

permits sold for turtle watching were obtained for the area and tabulated. Land use data

sets for the GIS data base were received from secondary data sources and land use maps

illustrating the sea lelvel rise scenarios based on IPCC predictions were created using

ArcGIS, (ArcMap software).

10

1.7 Structure of Report

This research project would have the following structure:

Chapter 2 discusses the literature of some the key topics associated with the effects

of sea level rise and its impacts on coastal communities. The review is aimed at

providing a brief background to the research topic.

Chapter 3 addresses the methodology performed in the project in order to achieve

objectives of the study.

Chapter 4 describes the results obtained from the data collection for the

methodology. Results are shown in tables, bar graphs and pie charts.

An analysis of the results based on information gathered, to assess the potential

impact of sea level rise on the coast community of Grande Riviere is presented in

Chapter 5.

Chapter 6 discusses the conclusion and summary of findings of the report. This

chapter answers the objectives of the study.

11

CHAPTER 2

LITERATURE REVIEW

2.1 Introduction

This chapter addresses the literature of key topics: Climate Change, Sea level rise,

vulnerability of coastal communities, social and economic impact of sea level rise, Global

and Regional Impact (specific to Small Island Developing States) and Uncertainty of

measurements of climate change and sea level rise. The literature reviewed is guided by

the basis of the research focus. These subject areas are critical to the understanding of this

research paper. The topics listed above were discussed in previous articles, referred

papers and journals. The methodology of these articles, referred papers and journals will

be analysed, compared and patterned for the purpose of conducting this research paper.

2.2 Climate Change

‘Climate change’ refers to a change in the state of the climate that can be identified (e.g.,

using statistical tests) by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties, and

that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer (IPCC 2007). The science

and impacts of climate change do little to motivate action if individuals cannot relate to

them on a personal level (Yoskowitz et al., 2009). Climate change is a grave problem that

holistically affects countries globally and regionally. While climate impacts will vary on

a regional scale, it is at the state and local levels where critical policy and investment

decisions are made for the very systems most likely to be affected by climate change –

water, energy, transportation and public health systems, as well as important economic

sectors such as agriculture, fisheries, forestry, manufacturing, and tourism. (The Centre

for Integrative Environment Research University of Maryland 2008).

12

There is a wide range of potential impacts, including changes in: seasonal weather

patterns (drought); the amount and type of precipitation; intensified storm surges, sea

level rise and increased risk of flooding; regular climate fluctuations; ocean acidity;

ecosystems and biodiversity (saline intrusion of coastal wetlands and ecosystems, coastal/

beach erosion; agriculture, forestry, and fishing; water supply (shortage of water supply)

and other infrastructure; and human health. Secondary effects of climate impacts can

include higher prices, reduced income and job losses. (Ramon et al.,2008)

The Centre for Integrative Environment Research University of Maryland 2008 identifies

key economic sectors in North Carolina, which are likely affected by climate change, and

the main impacts to be expected for these sectors. In their report their methodology

involves providing examples of the direct economic impacts that could be experienced in

the state and presents calculations of indirect effects that are triggered as impacts on

individual sectors in the economy ripple through to affect others. Direct impacts are those

impacts (jobs and output) generated directly by the project. Indirect economic impacts

occur as the project (or business owners) purchase local goods and services. Both direct

and indirect job creation increases area household income and results in increased local

spending on the part of area households. The jobs, wages, output and tax revenues

created by increased household spending are referred to as induced economic

impacts. ( The Centre for Integrative Research, University of Maryland)

2.3 Sea level rise and the social and economic impact

Relative sea-level change occurs where the local level of the ocean relative to land is

changed, due to ocean rise and/or land subsidence or due to rapid land-level uplift.

Impact researchers focus on this relative sea-level change which is measured by tide

gauges with respect to the land on which they are located. Mean sea level is defined as

the average relative sea level over a period long enough to average the wave and tide

transients (typically a month or year). (Thurman and Burton 2000; IPCC 2007; Baede

2007).

13

According to Lam et al. (2009), although studies on climate change impacts on the coast

have been conducted and impact scenarios have been generated, very few of them have

focused on the socio-economic impacts. Lam et al. 2009 uses population directly

affected by sea level rise as a fundamental social- economic measure of climate

change impacts on coastal regions.Yoskowitz et al. 2009 research paper on

Galveston Bay uses the method of two scenarios of relative sea level rise for 100

years: 1) 0.69 meters and, 2) 1.5 meters, based on IPCC predictions. Land use

maps and digital elevation terrain models (Geographical Information Systems

Software) were produced in order to apply sea level rise scenarios for sea level

rise models. For each scenario an estimation of the impact on the following

variables were analysed: 1) displaced population (number of households); 2)

expected number of buildings impacted, 3) building related economic loss, 4)

industrial, hazardous, superfund, solid waste sites, and 5) water treatment plants.

This method encompasses a wide range of variables for suitable analysis. This

research paper focuses on three scenarios of sea level rise and the associated

socio-economic impact. (Lam et al., 2009; Yoskowitz et al. 2009)

Cooper et al. (2005), in his study of New Jersey also uses relative sea level rise

scenarios, 0.66m and 1.22m based on IPCC predictions to analyse the potential

impact of sea level rise. The sea level rise was applied to the digital terrain models

produced by a Geographical Information Systems program/software, so as to

produce sea level rise models. Land use data was also applied to the digital terrain

models. Land use maps with sea level rise models were created. Copper et al.,

(2005) used present day data on the properties of the coast to evaluate the impact

of the each sea level rise scenario. (Cooper et al., 2005)

14

2.4 Vulnerability of coastal communities

The increased vulnerability of coastal communities to potential hazards is partly due to

the constantly increasing coastal population (Adger et al., 2005). Vulnerability is defined

as the degree to which a natural or social system is at risk to damages or losses due to

natural phenomenon (Cooper et al.,2005). Coastal communities and environments are

particularly vulnerable to climate change due to the potential for permanent coastal

inundation and increasing coastal hazards associated with changing weather patterns and

extreme weather events (Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water, New

South Wales Government 2009). The IPCC has a very high confidence that coastal

communities and habitats will be progressively stressed due to the climate change

impacts combined with development and pollution. (Adger et al., 2005)

There is a need to assess the overall vulnerability to climate change in coastal regions,

and there is a need to develop a useful methodology to assess vulnerability that is

applicable to most regions in the world (Field et al., 2007; Parry et al., 2007; Yusuf and

Francisco, 2009). Adger 1999 in his study of the social vulnerability of climate change in

Coastal Vietnam collects data on individual-level and collective-level vulnerability

indicators to determine the vulnerability of the study area. He gathers information such

as: household income and size, remittances and diversity. His method of collecting data is

via quantitative and qualitative surveys, interviews with commune and district officials

and from secondary data sources such as census survey data. This interviewing method is

similar to data collection in this research paper however, Adger methodology differs

because in his study he does not evaluate sea level rise as part of methodology.

2.5 Global and Regional Impact (Caribbean Small Island Developing

States)

Global and regional vulnerability studies have provided quantitative assessments of

potential impacts of sea-level rise at global and regional scales (e.g., Gornitz et al., 1994;

Hoozemans, Marchand, and Pennekamp, 1993; Mimura, 2000; Thieler and Hammar-

15

Klose, 1999). The impacts of and possible responses to sea-level rise vary at the local and

regional scale due to variation in local and regional factors (Nicholls et al., 1998). Small

island states such as those in the Pacific and the Caribbean are particularly vulnerable to

sea level rise because of their small physical size, high population density and reliance of

coastal resources (IPCC 2007).

In many cases, the majority of settlement, economic activity, infrastructure and services

are located at or near the coast, and local economies are reliant on just a few sectors, such

as tourism and agriculture (Nicholls et al., 1998). Small islands lack reliable demographic

and socio-economic scenarios and projection, which results in socio-economic conditions

of small islands not being presented well in existing assessments (Yoskowitz et al 2009).

Sea level rise will have a range of physical impacts on small islands, including increased

likelihood of coastal wetlands, aquifers, and increased beach erosion and coastal land loss

(Klein& Nicholls 1999).

Loss of beach habitat has both economic and environmental consequences in the

Caribbean (Fish et al. 2005). Tourism is the main source of revenue for many Caribbean

islands and the loss of beaches threatens this sector both indirectly by the loss of revenue

and directly by the loss of buildings (Potter 1996). Aside from the direct loss of nesting

habitat, other factors associated with development, including artificial lighting, beach

compaction, beach nourishment, noise and activity, pollution, and coastal defences such

as sea walls (Witherington 1992; Crain et al. 1995; Bouchard et al. 1998; Katselidis &

Dimopoulos 1998) influence nesting success. This combination of factors compounds the

threat of projected sea level rise to nesting turtle populations. Fish et al. (2005) in his

study uses three scenarios of sea level rise (0.2, 0.5 and 0.9 meters) based on IPCC

predictions for the study analysis. He uses a digital terrain model and applies the sea level

rise scenarios to produce sea level rise models for the analysis. This methodology is

similar to that used by Cooper et al.(2009) and Yoskowitz et al., (2009) in their studies.

16

2.6 Uncertainty of the impacts of climate Change and sea level rise and

the impacts

There is extensive uncertainty about the future growth of green house gas emissions and

resulting climate-related developments, and the implications of that uncertainty for

climate policy. Uncertainty arises from several sources, including limitations in current

data, imperfect understanding of physical processes, and the inherent unpredictability of

economic activity, technological innovation, and many aspects of the interacting

components (land, air, water and ice, and life) that make up the Earth’s climate system.

(Congress of the United States, Congressional Budget Office 2009)

Uncertainty does not imply that nothing is known about future developments, but rather

that projections of future changes in climate and of the resulting impacts should be

considered in terms of ranges or probability distributions. For example, some recent

research suggests that the median increase in average global temperature during the 21st

century will be in the vicinity of 9° Fahrenheit (F) if no actions are taken to reduce the

growth of greenhouse-gas emissions. However, warming could be much less or much

greater than that median level, depending on the growth of emissions and the response of

the climate system to those emissions. (Congress of the United States, Congressional

Budget Office 2009)

The uncertainties surrounding the extent of climate change and its effects on human

welfare complicate policy choices because any given emissions scenario could result in

much more or much less dramatic changes in climate (and consequent impacts) than are

expected. A full evaluation of any policy requires an assessment not only of its most

likely effect on climate impacts but also of how it might shift the probabilities of impacts

that are unlikely but would be very severe if they occurred. Because of that uncertainty,

policymakers might wish to consider taking more action as a hedge against those severe

outcomes than they would just to address the expected or most likely outcome. (Congress

of the United States, Congressional Budget Office 2009)

17

Most of the currently available elevation data do not provide the degree of confidence

that is needed for making quantitative assessments of the effects of sea-level rise for local

planning and decision making (Anderson et al.,2009). However, the scope of these

studies has been limited by the available data in terms of resolution, coverage, parameter

availability, and dated sources: this is a generic problem for broad-scale coastal analysis

(National Research Council Staff, 2004). In addition to these limitations, data quality and

integration constitute further problems; even in those cases where data and tools are

available to coastal scientists for the analysis and modelling of coastal processes, these

usually exist in fragmented forms (Vafeidis et al.,2007).

In the last two decades, the availability of digital spatial data for the world’s biomes has

vastly increased as a result of advancements in data capture and input techniques.

Nevertheless, collections of data are not necessarily adequate for the needs of global-

scale analysis, as merging data from various sources may raise several questions. Since

the early 1990s, and especially during the 21st century, significant progress has

been made in understanding the impacts of climate change at national, regional,

and local scales. (Flewelling and Egenhofer, 1999)

2.7 Conclusion

The following is a summary of the key statements of the literature reviewed in the

chapter, which presents the basis of the research topic:

Climate change has a wide range of physical impacts: such as coastal erosion,

extremities of weather pattern, loss of coastal wetlands or ecosystems. These

physical impacts have socio-economic implications on the way of life for people

living in coastal communities. To address these socio-economic implications

critical policy and investment decisions are made locally for the very systems

most likely to be affected by climate change – water, energy, transportation and

18

public health systems, as well as important economic sectors such as agriculture,

fisheries, forestry, manufacturing, and tourism.

Sea level rise impacts include: inundation, intensified frequent storm surges, and

coastal flooding and salinity intrusion of coastal wetlands and ecosystems just to

name a few. Coastal communities are the highly vulnerable to the impacts of

climate change and sea level rise.

The uncertainty of climate change and sea level rise models are important to

understand when quantifying the impact and formulating policies for mitigation

and adaptation strategies.

The common methodology employed in assessing the socio-economic impact of sea level

rise is using sea level rise scenarios based on IPCC predictions and applying the sea level

rise to a digital terrain model of the study area to produce sea level rise models. Maps are

produced from these models to illustrate the areas that the sea level rise will

cover/inundate. The potential impact of sea level rise is evaluated by using present day

social or economic conditions of the coastal areas. This methodology has been widely

used and proven to be successful in this type of study and is applicable to future studies.

The methodology outlined above will be used for this project. The rationale for using this

method is that it has been tested and accepted by many previous authors, that is, the

professionals in the field of study.

19

CHAPTER 3

METHODOLOGY

3.1 Methodology Approach

The methodology used in this research is focused around the following data

collection/data analysis approaches:

1) The conduct of a limited survey of key stakeholders

2) Compilation of data on socio-economics, demography, land use, property values from

existing data sources from other sources including Government records, hotel book

keeping records, tourist centre information

3) The manipulation of the data collected in items 1 an 2 above using graphs,

spreadsheets and statistics to produce profiles of community dependency of coastal

resources.

4) Evaluation of the potential impacts of sea level rise scenarios as stated in the literature

on the community dependencies established in item 3 above.

The specific methodology associated with each of the items 1-4 above are described in

sections 3.2 to 3.6 below

20

3.2 Approach to Data Collection

Several sources of data were collected to assess to the socio-economic impact of sea level

rise on Grande Riviere. The following key approaches to data collection in order to

perform the study were:

1. Survey of the key socio-economic variables in Grande Riviere. This

anecdotal data was the only source of primary data in this research

project.

2. Demographic data of Grande Riviere obtained from the Central

Statisitical Office. This demography data is a scientific measurement

from a secondary data source.

3. A description of land use in the form of a land use map. The land use

map was produced using ArcGIS 9 (ArcMap 9.3), the datasets for the

GIS data base to produce the maps were received from a secondary data

source.

4. Sea level rise scenarios were obtained from reports published by The

International Panel for Climate Change. These scenarios are scientific

measurements derived from research conducted by scientists.

5. Property Values were retrieved from The Registrar General Office. It is

scientific data from a secondary data source.

6. Occupancy Rate of the hotels is a secondary data source which was

recorded from the book keeping records of the guest house Le Grande

Almandier Hotel. For Mount Plaisir Hotel the occupancy rates were

obtained via Hotel Manager respondent information.

21

7. Statistics of visitors to Grande Riviere. This data was obtained by

Charmine Bishop (employee at The Visitor Centre in Grande Riviere). It

is a secondary source of data and a scientific measurement.

3.3 Survey of key stakeholders

A series of semi- structured interviews were conducted with key stakeholders from the

time period of 29th January, 2010 to 31

st January, 2010. The sample size of the survey

was ten percent of the population of Grande Riviere. Thirty seven interviews were

conducted with villagers, fishermen, hotel staff and management, district nurse, personnel

at the visitor centre and visitors to the area.

Semi structured interviews were deemed to be the most appropriate approach for

performing the survey of the socio- economic variables of sea level rise of Grande

Riviere because they are the most useful format for obtaining specific quantitative and

qualitative information from a sample of the population. It is flexible and designed in

such a way to allow two way communications by creating a situation that gives the

respondents the ability to express their ideas and opinions on a particular subject area.

3.3.1 Designing the interview

In order to perform the interviews essential steps are followed to conduct the interviews

in the suitable format:

1) Understanding the overall purpose of the interviews, that is, the intended use

of the information from the interview. The purpose of the interviews is to

perform the survey of the current status quo of the socio-economic variables

of Grande Riviere. The information obtained from the interviews was used to

assess the social and economic impact of sea level rise on Grande Riviere

22

community. The interviews focused on how the visitors and villagers use the

coastal space location economically and socially.

2) An interview guide was prepared in the office prior to conducting the

interviews in the field. The interview guide is list of general topics and

questions that was used as a guide in actual interviews. The list of general

topics was derived from the information necessary for the assessment of the

research project. The general topics for the interview guide include: Fishing,

Coastal Tourism, Coastal Conservation and Local Coastline/Beach

Recreation;

3) Based on the topic/interview guide open ended questions were constructed in

different ways and the final interview sheet was prepared to perform the

interviews in the field.

3.3.2 Selecting interviewees (Key stakeholders)

The key stakeholders were chosen based on the interview guide developed to collect

information for the assessment of the research paper:

Villagers live in the area of Grande Riviere and use the coastal resources therefore an

understanding of how the coastal resources are used (for employment and socially) and

their level of dependency is important in achieving objective 1

Visitors to Grande Riviere come for various purposes, understanding how

visitors use the coastal resources is key in the achieving objective 1: generating a

generalized profile of the present socio-economic

23

The district nurse was interviewed to develop an understanding of how the health

centre is used by the villagers and visitors and the services offered. This gives us

a measurement of the importance of the existence of the health centre.

Fishermen are key stakeholders because they use the coastal resources like the

beach and the river for their employment and the loss of this beach space as a

result of sea level rise will have an economic impact.

Hotel staff and management are interviewed to deduce how the value and profits

of the hotels and to find the percent of the employees that are villagers. Gathering

the economic and social importance of the presence of the hotel is essential

because their location along the coast. This helps to achieve objective 1

3.4 Compilation of data on socio-economics, demography, land use and

property values

The following are the secondary sources of data collected:

1. Population and housing statistics of Grande Riviere were collected at the Central

Statistical office in Port-of Spain. The population numbers were derived from the

2000 Population and housing census Trinidad and Tobago. Population and

housing data were collected because method has been used in previous studies as

a direct measurement of impact and deemed to be very useful in the assessing the

social and economic impact.

2. A map representing focusing on the coastal features of the community produced

using ArcGIS, Arc ArcMap. This land use map is essential for mapping of the

impact of sea level rise when using the sea level rise scenarios. This mapping is a

24

main idea of the project it is a representation of the assessment of the different

sea level rise scenarios. In previous and most studies similar to this one research

a map is used to illustrate the impact of the social and economic impact based on

the current socio-economic data collected for the area.

3. Property values of the parcels along the coast were sourced from a computer data

base designed by the Registrar General Office. Searches were conducted based

on the proprietor’s name and address. The method of property values are used in

the most previous studies as a direct quantitative measure of the economic impact

of sea level rise on coastal properties. This method has deemed to be successful

in the assessment of socio-economic impact.

4. Sea level rise scenarios based on reports from The International Panel for

Climate Change were used. These specific sea level rise scenarios were chosen

because the study is focusing on the impact along the coast and coastal resources.

3.5 The manipulation of the data collected

The data collected in the interviews was first tabulated, coded and entered into a

spreadsheet. Standard spreadsheet routines were used to produce a variety of pie charts

and bar graphs in order to illustrate the data from the interviews to describe the economic

and social structure of the community.

25

3.6 Evaluation of the potential impacts of sea level rise scenarios

The sea level rise scenarios of 1 meter, 2.4 meters and 3.7 meters were chosen from IPCC

predictions. The impacts were evaluated by understanding the use and value of the

inundated or cover areas of the coast as illustrated on the land sue maps. The impact was

then stated or assessed based on the use, value and effect it will have the community.

3.7 Limitations

Method of Recording

Since semi-structured interviews contain open-ended questions the questions asked may

have been vague the discussions may diverge from the interview guide. It is generally

best to tape-record interviews and later transcript these tapes for analysis. While it is

possible to try to jot notes to capture respondents' answers, it is difficult to focus on

conducting an interview while jotting notes. The actual semi structured interviews

conducted in the field were not tape recorded, the recording was note taking. This

approach may have results in poor notes and detract for the development of rapport

between interviewer and interviewee resulting in poor quality data collection of the

anecdotal data. Development of rapport and dialogue is essential in unstructured

interviews. Another limitation was the short time period given to collect this interview

data some essential information for analysis may have been omitted.

26

Interviewer Skills

As an interviewer some skills are needed, however the semi-structured interviews were

conducted by a first timer interviewer. Some common problems that may have occurred

in the interviews are: failure to listen closely; repeating questions that have already been

asked; failure to probe when necessary; failure to judge the answers.

Property Value Data

There were limitations with the property valuation data. The property values retrieved are

not true representations of the present value of the property to make an analysis. The

valuation for the entire Mount Plaisir Hotel estate was not available. The value for a

given area of part of the property was available therefore the value of the entire property

had to be estimated by knowing the area of the entire property. The property value of the

Le Grande Almandier available is for 2005, five years ago. The hotel properties present

day values will be more than what it was years ago.

Demographic data

The limitation of the population and housing statistics is that this population and housing

survey data is outdated. This survey data is based on the conditions of Grande Riviere ten

years ago. The population may have decrease or increase since 2000.

Data Sets in Arc GIS

The data sets received from other secondary data sources, the accuracies of the data sets

are unknown.

27

CHAPTER 4

RESULTS

4.1 Introduction

This chapter will present all the data from the methodology. Results from the interviews

will be represented in a graphical format, that is, on pie charts, bar graphs and line

graphs. Hotel Revenues, Property Values, annual number of guests in hotels, annual

number of permits sold for turtle watching and visitor statistics will be represented in

tables. The land use maps with the different sea level rise scenarios will be shown.

One of the primary objectives of this study is to provide a description of the social and

economic structure of the Grande Riviere community. In particular the research aims to

describe those aspects of the structure that are directly or indirectly with the coastal area

that is contagious to the community. Ultimately the study is focused on the inference of

the potential impacts that sea level rise will have on the social and economic structure of

the village.

This chapter relies on the social and economic data as well as the information collected

from the semi-structured interviews to provide a brief description of the following aspects

of the community as livelihood sources:

a) Fishing;

b) Coastal Tourism;

c) Coastal Conservation;

28

d) Local coastline recreation;

While these items are not exhaustive, they can be considered key indicators and, thus

provide a useful insight to the Grande Riviere coastal community and the larger

relationship between the sea and the coastal community.

4.2 Fishing

The stakeholders interviews responses suggests, fishing in Grande Riviere is not as active

as it used to be however it is still important to the community, this is evident because

33% percent of the respondents fish as a form of livelihood. The majority of fishing

activity is performed by the elderly of the community. It was observed that there is an

abandon fishing depot on the eastern end of the beach and that the river houses many

fishing boats, this suggests that in the past fishing was a major source of economic

activity for the community. The villagers fish both in the sea and in the river. The fisher

men sell their catch to the hotels on the beach front and to the villagers. They also use

some of their catch to cook for themselves and their families. The fishermen in the village

have described their fishing activity during the turtle season to be more difficult out in the

sea because the turtles destroy the fishing net; therefore they have to use trolling

(technique of fishing) to fish. On average the fishermen have stated they fish a few times

for the week. The elder in the in the community have expressed their desire and efforts to

revive/ redevelop the fishing activity in the village.

29

4.3 Coastal Tourism

The findings of the interviews have concluded that the community of Grande Riviere

depends heavily on tourism for their livelihood. Tourism is strongly based on the

community’s coastal resources. The leatherback turtle comes to the shores of Grande

Riviere beach to nest their eggs from March to August annually. Based on the

information gathered from the Visitor Centre, thousands of local and international people

come every year to visit Grande Riviere, (refer to Figure 4.2). Tourism is a major source

of economic activity for the community. The presence of the two hotels on the beach

front is major source of income because thousands of people stay at the hotels annually

(refer to Figure 4.1), including visitors who come to see the turtle nesting. A substantial

amount of income is generated annually from the hotels, (refer to Table 4.2).

83% of the hotels employees are resident of Grande Riviere villagers. From the

interviews the villagers have shared how they use tourism as a livelihood, another way

the villagers have found to generate income from the visitors is by giving tours up hike

trails along the river to the waterfall and selling craft and handmade jewelry to the

visitors, (refer to figure 4.3). The hotel managers buy fish from the fishermen to prepare

meals for the visitors. Tourism has had a social impact on the community, by exposing

the villagers to different cultures, religion, races and different ways of life from all over

the world visitors who come to Grande Riviere. 90% of the villagers and hotel employees

interviewed have become friends or familiar with visitors who come frequently.

30

Figure 4.1: Percent of hotel employeees living in Grande Riviere

Figure 4.1 shows that the majority of hotel employees are residents of Grande Rivere,

the number of hotel employees who are residents of Grande Riviere is almost five times

the hotel employees not resident of Grande Riviere.

31

YEAR LOCAL VISITORS INTERNATIONAL

VISITORS

2007 23000 14000

2008 17000 12000

Table 4.1: Total number of visitors to Grande Riviere Annually

Table 4.1 shows that local visitor numbers are more than the international visitors,

generally there has been a decrease in the visitors from 2007 to 2008.

32

Figure 4.2: Grande Riviere beach socio-economic use

Figure 4.2 shows the number of villagers selling craft and fishing are equal where as less

people sell agricultural produce.

33

Year Revenue (Trinidad and Tobago Dollars

TTD)

1995 $358,497

1996 $636,219

1997 $696,599

1998 $871,507

1999 $1,225,716

2000 $1,494,892

2001 $1,618,718

2002 $1,591,699

Table 4.2: Annual revenue generated by the Mount Plaisir Hotel

34

In Table 4.2 above it is that from 1995 to 2002, the annual revenue generated by Mount

Plaisir Hotel over the seven year period has increased drastically. The annual revenue

generated in 2002 increased more than four times than that generated in 1995.

Year Number of Guests

2005 4790

2006 5270

Table 4.3: Total number of guest at Mount Plaisir Hotel

Table 4.3 above shows the total number of guest in 2006 increased by 10% from the

previous year. The revenue figures (Table 4.2) and visitors’ numbers to Mount Plaisir

Hotel (Table 4.3) is an indication of the growth of tourism in the Grande Riviere.

35

Hotel Estimated Property Values (TTD)

Mount Plaisir $ 16,000,000 (2009)

Le Grande Almandier $ 2,000,000 (2005)

Table 4.4: Estimated property values of the beach front hotels

Hotel Le Grande Almandier Mount Plaisir Hotel

Occupancy Rate 40% 50%

Table 4.5: Occupancy rate of the hotels on the beachfront

With reference to Table 4.5 the occupancy rate indicates that the hotels are occupied

seasonally; the hotels have peak periods and slower period during the year. From the

book keeping records it was observed that the peak times coincide with the turtle nesting

season which is from the month March to August.

36

4.3 Coastal conservation

Based on the information interpreted from the interviews it can be stated that Grande

Riviere is eco-tourist destination which appeals to nature seekers. From the respondent

answers the villagers take pride to express that their village is one of beautiful nature and

how tourism has positively impacted on their community. From observation of the area

and information retrieved from the Visitor Centre Grande Riviere natural

environment/areas have been relatively undisturbed by man. Grande Riviere beach has

one of the highest densities in the world for turtle nesting. From the data collected from

the interviews with the Visitor Centre personnel, hundreds of leatherback turtles Grande

Riviere beach is their nesting habitat annually, the turtle’s nesting is the primary

attraction for community.

Thousands of people purchase permits, at $36 per permit, annually to go see the turtles

nesting on the beach, refer to figure 4.8.This money from purchase of the permits is used

for developing the community, managing the visitor centre facility and providing jobs. In

addition there are tours of hikes trails to the waterfall and eco-lodges. The community

benefits socially and economically from tourism. From information obtained interviewees

and observation it is noted that Grande Riviere is visited by thousands every year, the

community is low impact from the negative effects of tourism and the tourist activities

are on a smaller scale. The fragile ecosystems along the coast such as the river, other

wetlands, the beach and the forest are carefully managed by the visitor/ tourist personnel

to ensure that tourism is sustainable. One of the hotels on the beach front, Mount Plaisir

Hotel, is an eco-resort. Visiting Grande Riviere to see the turtles nesting offer tourists

insight to how the natural environment functions and it fosters a greater appreciation of

our natural habitats.

37

Year Total

2000 2506

2001 3,824

2002 3,324

2003 3,207

2004 3,710

2005 6,507

2006 9,400

Table 4.6: Number of permits sold annually

In Table 4.6, the number of permits sold has increase five times over the six year period

(2000-2006). The number of people interested in eco-tourism has increased from 2000 to

2006.

38

4.4 Local coastline recreation

Grande Riviere beach is used in a variety of ways for recreation: Surfing, Bathing and

socialising/relaxation. The beach is used by both villagers and locals. The beach site is

important to the villagers’ heritage, it provides a place for residents and tourist to relax

and enjoy the coastal environment. Many locals outside of Grande Riviere come to

Grande Riviere beach to surf, 90% of the local visitors came to Grande Riviere to surf.

Some of the adult villagers come to bathe in the sea; however most of the children in the

village bathe in the sea more regularly. The adult villagers more use the beach to

socialize with fellow villagers, more than 50 % of the villagers interviewed use the beach

to relax and as a form of socialization refer to figure 4.9. The community of Grande

Riviere is a close knit community and the beach is one of the places which facilitate the

socializing of the community, which in turn fosters the close relationship that the

villagers share with one another. The majority of the visitors to Grande Riviere both local

and international, 73% of the visitors came for purposes of recreation on the beach.

39

Figure 4.3: Grande Riviere Beach social use

Figure 4.3 shows that the beach is mostly used for purposes socialising and relaxation by

both visitors and villagers. Surfing is the second most prominent activity on the beach.

Number of

Households

Total Population Male Female

116 334 184 150

Figure 4.3: Table showing population Statistics for Grande Riviere

40

Figure 4.4: Purposes for visiting Grande Riviere

Referring Figure 4.4, the majority of visitors to Grande Riviere come for purposes of

recreation, Grande Riviere is visited more favourably for recreation.

41

Figure 4.5: Land use Map of Grande Riviere

42

Figure 4.6: Land use Map showing one meter sea level rise

43

Figure 4.7: Land use map showing 2.4 meters sea level rise

44

Figure 4.8: Land Use Map showing 3.7 meters of sea level rise

45

CHAPTER 5

ANALYSIS

5.1 Introduction

This chapter addresses the third objective of the study: analysing the potential socio-

economic impact of sea level rise on Grande Riviere based on the data collected. The

socio-economic impact for each sea level rise scenario is systematically analysed.

Projecting the socio-economic impact of sea level rise on Grande Riviere 100 hundreds

years into the future is challenging. Socio-economic variables are not simply and very

accurately quantified or described especially with limited resources such as: access to

updated information, time and funding. However, it is possible to illustrate what the

impact would be if today’s socio-economic characteristics were transcended 100 years

into the future.

A substantial portion of the villagers’ activities takes place directly adjacent to the coastal

waters, thus putting the village at risk to sea level rise. Fishing, Agriculture and tourism

are the main economic activities in Grande Riviere. The potential loss estimates include

physical damage of residential and commercial buildings, institutional facilities and

infrastructure, economic loss from business interruptions and reconstruction, and the

social impacts including shelter, displaced households, and population exposure to

hazards.

46

5.2: 1 m sea level rise scenario

5.2.1: Disrupt of Coastal Ecosystem

One meter sea level rise will inundate the river estuary and coastal agricultural lands, that

is, the direct environmental impacts. Sea level rise would change the location of the river

estuary, causing a great change in fish habitat and breeding ground. This influx of saline

water from sea level rise to estuarine would increase the salinity of the river’s habitat.

The offset will disrupt the ecosystem of the river resulting in alterations of trophic levels

and food web. This may tend to displace or extinct some existing plant and animal

communities that are tolerable to certain salinity levels and thus alter the functioning in

these ecosystems in the river’s habitat.

5.2.2: Loss of Fishing Grounds/ Loss of Income

With this disruption of the ecosystem some of the species of fish or aquatic animals

which the fishermen would have caught may die causing a decrease in the fishermen

catch. The fishermen will have less catch to sell to the hotels and villagers. This

inundation will affect 33% of the villagers who fish as a form of livelihood, by

decreasing their income revenue and spending incomes. The fishermen will have to find

another location to house the boats.

5.2.3: Degradation of Agricultural Lands

The intrusion of sea water on to the coastal agricultural lands will degrade the quality of

the lands, decrease crop yields due to the increase in the salinity of the soil. Salinity

intrusion due to sea level rise will decrease agricultural production by unavailability of

fresh water and soil degradation. The 14% of the villagers produce will be affected (refer

to Figure 4.2). There will be a decrease in produce which will in turn decrease their

revenue and spending income for their living.

47

5.3: 2.4m sea level rise scenario:

At 2.4 meters sea level rise the beach will be inundated. Beaches respond to rising sea

levels by re-positioning themselves further inland. The loss of the beach space will

impact coastal tourism, coastal conservation and local beach recreation with direct and

indirect effects.

5.3.1: Local Beach Recreation

The beach is the primary attraction for tourism; it is the nesting habitat for the

leatherback turtles and it is used for bathing, surfing, relaxing and socialising by both

villagers and visitors (refer to Figure 4.3). The beach site is important to the villagers’

heritage, it provides a place for residents and tourist to relax and enjoy the coastal

environment. This will have a social effect on the community because more than 75% of

the villagers use the beach to socialize (refer to Figure 4.3). The beach space facilitates

the community’s familiarity and close knit relationships.

5.3.2: Coastal Tourism

Direct Impacts

The visitor statistics (local and international) in Grande Riviere tallies on average 33000

annually, which is more than a hundred times the population of the community (refer to

Figure 4.2). The majority of the visitors come to see the turtle nesting, others come to

bathe, surf or relax on the beach (refer to Figure 4.3), and 73% of the visitors to Grande

Riviere come for recreational purposes (refer to figure 4.10).

Loss of the beach space will result in loss of the turtle nesting habitat and space for

recreation for both the villagers and visitors. Grande Riviere visitors total may drastically

decrease. Tourism operations may not be a major activity in the community.

48

Indirect Impacts

Since tourism is presently the main source of livelihood for the community, the

inundation of the beach will have rippling effects on the economy sectors of the village.

The indirect effects will include: the hotels on the beach front occupancy rates may

reduce from current occupancy rates: 40% and 50% (refer to Table 4.5). The hotels will

also suffer setbacks in revenue generation. The average present revenue annually is 1.6

million TTD (2002) generated by Mount Plaisir Hotel (refer to Table 4.2), the revenues

will decrease.

Other businesses such as food places that opened within recent years because of tourist

activity may close down or also suffer setbacks in revenue and income generation due to

less people visiting the community. Some of the employees at hotels may lose their jobs.

The villagers selling craft and agricultural produce will have less sales and may have to

find other ways of support themselves and their families, more than 90% of the villagers

interviewed on beach sold agricultural produce and craft to visitors (refer to Figure 4.2).

This will have a social effect on the community, because 100% of the villagers had

dependents.

5.3.3: Coastal Conservation

There are direct environmental impacts of sea level rise. The major attraction of the eco-

tourism will be destroyed, with the loss of the turtle’s nesting habitat, Grande Riviere

beach shore. The community may not be considered an eco-tourist place when the beach

is inundated. Tourism may not be an important activity in the community with the impact

of sea level rise. The income generated from the permits sold to view the turtles nesting

(refer to Table 4.6) may not be available to help develop the community or to provide

jobs, this income generated annually is approximately 332 000 TTD.

49

5.4: 3.7m sea level rise scenario

5.4.1: Real Estate Loss

In addition to the previous impacts of sea level rise scenarios: 2.4m and 1m, the sea level

rise of 3.7m will inundate the beachfront hotels. These coastal properties are of high

value. The direct impact will be loss of real estate properties worth in total approximately

18 million TTD for the hotel owners. The present day value of both hotels will be greater

than that represented in Table 4.4.

5.4.2: Socio-Economic displacement

Another direct impact will be displacement of jobs for villagers. This will have a social

impact on the community because the majority of the villagers are employed at the

hotels, 83% of the hotel employees are villagers (refer to Figure 4.1). The Health Centre

(Institutional Centre on the Land use maps) will have to be relocated. This will be loss in

property and convenience of location, this will have a socio-economic impact on the

community especially the elderly of the community because they frequently use the

health facility.

With the sea level rise scenario 3.7 meters the waves will break beyond the Hosang Street

Storm surges and flooding will occur along the Paria Main road. Paria Main road and

infrastructure will be directly exposed to coastal erosion. This scenario will may possibly

cause the village or community to evacuate, thus displacing a population of

approximately 340.

50

Sea level rise Areas Permanently

Inundated

Potential Impact

1 meter River estuary

Coastal Agricultural

Lands

Loss of Fishing

Grounds may result in

income revenue

decrease and socio-

economic impact

displacement.

Destruction of Coastal

Wetlands and

Ecosystems,

destruction of the

environment.

Deterioration of

Agriculture Lands

may result in the

socio-economic

displacement of

villagers due to

decrease in income

generation.

2.4 meters Beach Loss of coastal

nesting habitat for

turtles. Concern for

Coastal Conservation.

Coastal Tourism: Less

Visitors in the village,

thus less income

generation for

livelihood. Alternative

51

measures for income

generation for

villagers. Economic

setback for the entire

community.

Loss of beach Space

for the social aspect of

the community where

villagers meet and

relax and socialize.

3.7 meters Beachfront Hotels Loss of high value

Real Estate for

property owners

Loss of Governmental

Institutional facilities

(Health Centre)

Socio-economic

displacement of entire

community population

because of the high

risk exposure.

Buildings, Dwelling

units and

Infrastructure exposed

to coastal erosion

Table 5.1: Potential Impacts of sea level rise scenarios

52

Minimizing the impacts of sea-level rise can be achieved through mitigation and

implementing adaptation strategies. The results from this analysis should not be

interpreted literally, as they are estimates based on the best available information. They

can be used as indicators and estimates of magnitude to educate and raise awareness.

They can also be applied to local decision-making processes concerning governance,

coastal zone management, mitigation and adaptation.

53

CHAPTER 6

CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS

6.1 Conclusion

In this chapter we discuss the key conclusions from the research conducted. It has been

shown that the community of Grande Riviere’s livelihood will be adversely affect by the

potential impacts of the projected sea level rise. Sea level rise will impose a grave threat

to Grande Riviere by inundation of the beach space, agricultural grounds, fishing grounds

(coastal estuaries) and beach front hotels.

Sea level rise will impact activities such as: Coastal Tourism, Local Beach Recreation,

Coastal Conservation and Fishing. Coastal Tourism is most affected by sea level rise

inundation because tourism is the center of their economic activities, thus this may cause

serious rippling effects on the livelihood of the community. While this study only looked

at the impact of sea level rise 100 years in the future based on the present day socio-

economic conditions of Grande Riviere and did not account for any adaptation,

mitigation or resiliency measures, the results of the analysis provide support for decision

making about sustainable management, community resilience and the development of

adaptation strategies for the long term impact of sea level rise on Grande Riviere.

The use of Geomatics methods such as generation land use maps using Geographical

Information systems to produce sea level rise models in order to obtain maps to illustrate

areas inundated by the projected sea level rise scenarios is a useful method to determine

the potential impact of sea level rise on communities.

54

6.2 Conclusions regarding the profile of the present socio-economic

environment of Grande Riviere specific to coastal resources

How Grande Riviere uses its coastal resources socio-economically

The beach space facilitates both economic and social activity in the community. Grande

Riviere’s beach is a nesting habitat for the leatherback turtle. The turtle nesting is the

main attraction for tourism in Grande Riviere. Many of the villagers sell craft and

agricultural produce on the beach to the visitors and fish as a form of livelihood. The

majority of the hotel employees are residents of Grande Riviere. Within recent years

many businesses in Grande Riviere has opened for business because of the large number

of tourists visiting Grande Riviere. The community is a close knit one, this familiarity is

partly facilitated by the beach space, the villagers use the beach to relax and socialize

with each other.

6.3 Conclusions regarding the relationship (in terms of dependency on

coastal resources) between the sea level rise and the socio-economic

status-quo of the Grande Riviere.

Presently the community of Grande Riviere’s economic sector is heavily dependent on

tourism operations. Fishing is no longer a major economic activity in Grande Riviere.

The community is greatly dependent on tourism for jobs and generation income. The

majority of the villagers have jobs based in Grande Riviere which are supported by

tourism. Most of the hotel employees are residents of Grande Riviere. Sea level rise has

its impact on the livelihood of the coastal community through its physical effects on the

coastal line because the community is heavily dependent on its coastal resources. The

beach is very important to the economic activity of the area because it is the nesting

habitat of the leatherback turtle, which is the major attraction for the tourism.

55

6.4 Conclusion regarding the evaluation of the potential impact of sea

level rise scenarios on Grande Riviere.

Grande Riviere is highly vulnerable to the sea level rise effects. The effect of sea level

rise will have adverse impacts on the livelihood of the community. Sea level rise will

affect Coastal Tourism, Coastal Conservation, Local Beach Recreation and Fishing. The

inundation of the beach will result will in job loss, loss of property, displacement of

households.

56

6.2 Recommendations

The results from the assessment of the impact of sea level rise on Grande Riviere can be

used by the government and local councils to develop adaptations strategies. Strategies

and initiatives which address coastal management at the local and national level are vital.

At the national level the government can implement regulation and planning strategies in

order to address the impacts of climate change in the community. The results can be used

to inform / educate the community about the risks and what role they can play in

minimizing the impact. At the local level the villagers can come together as community

to discuss the risks involved and how they will be affected by this increase in sea level

rise.

Recommendations for Government (Policy Makers/Planning Authority):

Further research for the study of the community of Grande Riviere is recommended. In

order to develop suitable and effective adaptation strategies it is required to understand

Grande Riviere socio-economic in detail: the people, local culture and the structure of the

area. Since the findings of my work are inconclusive I suggest a comprehensive survey of

the community be performed for complete census. Perhaps, a larger sample size of the

community to obtain more detailed and accurate data for the assessment will be more. A

comprehensive understanding of how the community functions is essential in planning

and implementing strategies for sustainable development and minimizing the impact of

sea level rise.

Recommendations for Villagers (Local community/Local Village Council):

The community should understand the severity of the risks involved with the impacts of

sea level rise and how it affects their daily lives. The local council should form a group to

develop research specific to the coastal area of Grande Riviere for climate change and sea

level rise impacts on coastal communities. In addition the community be educated and

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informed about practices for sustainable development of coast so as to help in minimising

the impact of destruction of the coast.

58

REFERENCES

1. Adger, W. Neil. 1999. Social Vulnerability to Climate Change and Extremes in

Coastal Vietnam. World Development 27, no. 2: pg 249-269.

2. Bueno, R., Herzfelt C. 2008. The Caribbean and Climate Change Costs of

Inaction. Tufts University.

3. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Centre (CDIAC). 2006. Carbon Dioxide

Emissions. http://cdiac.ornl.gov/ftp/ndp030/global.1751_2006.ems. (accessed

April 2010).

4. Climate Institute. 2008. Climate Change http://www.climate.org/topics/sea-

level/index.html (accessed March 2010).

5. Climate Research Unit. 2009. Global Temperature Record.

http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/info/warming/. (accessed April 2010).

6. Congress of United States, Congressional Budget Office. 2009. Potential Impacts

of Climate Change in the United States www.cbo.gov. (accessed April 2010)

7. Cooper, M., Beevers M. 2005. Future sea level rise and the New Jersey coast

Assessing potential impacts and opportunities. Woodrow Wilson School of

Public and International Affairs Princeton University.

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8. Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water, New South Wales.

2009. www.environment.nsw.gov.au. (accessed March 2010).

9. Fish M.R., Cote I.M., Gill J.A, Jones A.P, Renshoff S, and Watkinson

A.R, 2005. Predicting the Impact of Sea Level Rise on Caribbean Sea

Turtle Nesting Habitat. Conservation Biology, 19 (2): 481-491.

10. IPCC. (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change).2007. Climate

Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Group II to the

third assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom.

11. Klein, J.T.; Nicholls, R.J. (1999). Assessment of coastal vulnerability to

climate change: A Journal of the Human Environment, 28 (2):182-187.

12. MSNBC. 2010. www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22898135/. (accessed April 2010)

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13. Potter, B. 1996. Tourism and coastal resources degradation in the wider

Caribbean. Island Resources Foundation, St. Thomas, Virgin Islands.

Available from http://www.irf.org/irtourdg.html (assessed February 2010).

14. Sarwar, G. 2005. The Impact of sea level rise on the coastal zone of Bangladesh.

Md., Lund University, Sweden. http . (accessed March 2010).

15. Sorenson, L. 2007. Society of Conservation and Study of Caribbean Birds

(SCSCB).

16. The Center for Integrative Environmental Research, University of Maryland.

2008. Economic Impacts of Climate Change on New Jersey.

17. The Center for Integrative Environmental Research, University of Maryland.

2008. Economic Impacts of Climate Change on North Carolina.

18. United States Environmental Protection Agency. 2009. Coastal Sensitivity to Sea

level rise: A Focus on the Mid Atlantic Region.

http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/effects/coastal/. (accessed March 2010)

19. Yoskowitz, David W., Gibeaut, James, et al. 2009. The socio-economic Impact

of Sea Level Rise in Galveston Bay Region. Heart Research Institute Gulf of

Mexico Studies.

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APPENDIX

62

SAMPLE OF QUESTIONNAIRE FOR INTERVIEW WITH A VILLAGER

LOCATION: Beach

Interviewee: Villager

How old are you? 29

TOPIC:

Employment in the village

Do you work in Grande Riviere?

Yes

What is nature of your job/employment?

Craftsman, I make cravings and design bamboo vases to sell to the visitors and to the

Mount Plaisir Hotel. Sometimes the hotel hires me directly to make craft for their visitors

and for interior design of the hotel.

How many dependents do you have? Two children

TOPIC:

Purposes of using the beach space

Why do you come to the beach other than work purposes?

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I come down to the beach to bathe and surf in the sea and to spend time with my family

and friends.

TOPIC: Sea Level rise, tides, features along the beach shoreline or river activity,

Have you noticed any significant and constant changes in the location of the shoreline, in

the river activity, along the beach or the sea tide coming into the land?

Sometimes the tide reaches as far into the land as up to the gate by the hotel Le Grande

Almandier. I have noticed that the sea level has changed its position permanently over the

years; there is a rock along the beach that is called Buntoon rock which used to be

surrounded by land on the beach years ago however the rock is now surrounded by water.

Is there a lot of fishing activity in the community?

Not many fisher men in the village however people in the village owns boats.