a weekly analysis of expected influences of cycles and

19
1 A weekly analysis of expected influences of cycles and planets on exchange rates. The analysis is regularly supplemented with timing tools by Gann, Bayer, Bradley, and others. Everything moves in cycles as a result of the natural law of action and reaction. By a study of the past, I have discovered what cycles repeat in the future . . . It is not my aim to explain the cause of cycles, the general public is not ready for it and probably would not understand or believe it if I explained it . . . everything works according to past cycles, and that history repeats itself in the lives of men, nations, and the stock market. WD Gann Weekly cyclical and astrological analysis for the period of 18 22 January 2010 Banking details: RABO Bank, account no. 10.89.91.547, in the name of P.J. van Gemeren at Stramproy (Netherlands); please include your email address (with or without @). Other countries: IBAN:NL02 RABO 0108 9915 47 BIC/SWIFT: RABONL2U . Subscriptions: 3 months 99 Euro; 6 months 179 Euro; 12 months 299 Euro. Combination subscription GannTrader WaveRider + Brains & Analysis: 3 months 169 Euro; 6 months 299 Euro; 12 months 499 Euro

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Page 1: A weekly analysis of expected influences of cycles and

1

A weekly analysis of expected influences of cycles and planets on exchange rates. The

analysis is regularly supplemented with timing tools by Gann, Bayer, Bradley, and others.

Everything moves in cycles as a result of the natural law of action and reaction. By a study of

the past, I have discovered what cycles repeat in the future . . . It is not my aim to explain

the cause of cycles, the general public is not ready for it and probably would not understand

or believe it if I explained it . . . everything works according to past cycles, and that history

repeats itself in the lives of men, nations, and the stock market.

WD Gann

Weekly cyclical and astrological analysis for the period of

18 – 22 January 2010

Banking details: RABO Bank, account no. 10.89.91.547, in the name of P.J. van Gemeren at

Stramproy (Netherlands); please include your email address (with or without @). Other

countries: IBAN:NL02 RABO 0108 9915 47 BIC/SWIFT: RABONL2U . Subscriptions: 3 months

99 Euro; 6 months 179 Euro; 12 months 299 Euro. Combination subscription GannTrader

WaveRider + Brains & Analysis: 3 months 169 Euro; 6 months 299 Euro; 12 months 499 Euro

Page 2: A weekly analysis of expected influences of cycles and

2

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Page 3: A weekly analysis of expected influences of cycles and

3

A look back at the past week: 11 – 15 January

Indices Last week I wrote:

The high around 7–8 (8 or 11 January in the AEX) looks set. On Monday possibly an

upward spurt, but the trend is down this week. The calculated low varies per index, with

the S&P500 in front around the 13th—also an astrological turnaround date—the DAX

around the 16th, and the FTSE100/AEX at the beginning of the following week.

After this low the trend is upward again in the direction of 26 January till the end of

January (26 January is also an astrological turnaround date).

Last Monday we rose a little but after that came a downward trend. The DAX, FTSE100 and AEX went down as expected. Delta-technically, the AEX should fall below the Tuesday low at the beginning of next week. The S&P500 was the only one to remain strong, with exchange rates starting a recovery on Tuesday and even setting a higher high on Thursday. But last Friday the fall was substantial, reaching a low beyond Tuesday's. Because of this, I have modified the prognosis somewhat in the S&P500—where I expect a double inversion—for the short term. The DAX deserves more explanation and scenario as well, as you can read. For the rest the picture in the indexes is similar.

Commodities Wheat is doing fine. Wheat has set the high last Monday and has gone down

below even the December low. The forecast, therefore, seems to come out perfectly and the

break through the December low tells us the MTD high is set. I will just leave the extra time

analysis as is for the coming weeks, and keep track of it. Soybeans have gone down too, a

little more than expected. For now we take no action but stay prepared.

And then gold, which is doing reasonably well. Last Monday a higher high, nicely in step with

the indexes; after that the fall began in the direction of 12 January as expected. It became

the 13th. It looks like there will be an inversion in the ITD after all; because of this the

forecast has been adjusted a little and in gold we therefore have the greatest change relative

to last week.

Page 4: A weekly analysis of expected influences of cycles and

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Delta Cycle Analysis

S&P500

For last week I expected a double inversion in the ITD cycle. This has been modified, but the prognosis remains virtually the same. We are still on the way to a higher MTD7 by the beginning of February. After that a greater correction in the direction of the MTD8. The ITD11 Has been set on Thursday, 14 January, a day later than expected. At the beginning of next week we can return to the ITD12 and then rise. The ITD12 must stay above the ITD10 (1114,81), or else the MTD7 is already set. Only if we come below the light green line will the MLTD14-15/LTD5-6 still be moved. We don't expect this anymore, however. In the longer term, the trend is upward for the LTD6 to the LTD7 around the end of June. By the end of January, beginning of February, I expect an inversion in the ITD cycle (already shown). As we get closer in time, we get a better look at this.

Page 5: A weekly analysis of expected influences of cycles and

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DAX

The ITD2 high was set on Monday 11 January, three calendar days or one trading day later

than expected. The DAX came down beautifully and has approached the 50% fibonacci level.

The DAX is the first in line to go back up. The other indexes may come down a bit more till

about 20–21 January. Something to consider in the DAX, to be sure, for the indexes usually

keep pace with one another. So as you take a position, keep an eye on the other indexes and

their prognoses.

Although things look good, I am not entirely confident, and it is possible that during the next

week we will yet see an inversion in the ITD cycle. This will be the case if we go down further

till around 26 January. The ITD4 is then the low,and ITD5 a high by early February. Next week

we'll know more. At any rate, we are placing a stop-loss on 5829, the current ITD1. If we

should go below this, the MTD6 is set (earlier), and an inversion in the ITD cycle is as good as

certain.

For the time being we assume that we are on the way to a higher MTD6 about 26 January,

and then to the still higher MTD8/MLTD3.

The long-term prognosis is upward in the direction of the LTD1, via the MLTD3 and MLTD4.

Page 6: A weekly analysis of expected influences of cycles and

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FTSE 100

The FTSE100 is doing well also. We have to be careful, since a possible inversion in ITD cycle

may be approaching. I think we will not go through an inversion, but if we do, it will be a

double inversion.

This week we may go down a little more to place the ITD1/MTD5 around 20 January, and

then up to the MTD6 around 19 February.

We are in an upward trend from the MLTD2 toward the MLTD3 around 16–19 March.

The long-term trend, after placement of the LTD12 is rising to the LTD1 around the end of

June. The TD11/12 may also be placed with the MLTD24/(24), but that makes no difference

in the prognosis, unless we end up under the MLTD2 or MLTD(24), but we are not there yet,

and certainly do not expect this.

Page 7: A weekly analysis of expected influences of cycles and

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AEX

In the AEX the MTD18 was set last Monday, and we have come down nicely. By the

beginning of next week we may come down a little more, and as a matter of fact, we will

have to get to just under the low of 12 January (334,97) to place the ITD3 around 19 January.

We are on our way to a higher MLTD19.

Because we will have three higher MTD highs/lows from the MLTD18 to the MTD2, we

assume an MLTD19 high that coincides with the MTD2. This would mean that the MLTD high

will not agree with the MLTD high in the other indexes around 7–11 March, and the indexes

will diverge somewhat.

Page 8: A weekly analysis of expected influences of cycles and

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Wheat Delta (future maart 2010)

The goal for wheat is a lower MLTD10/LTD6 in

February/March. The MTD2 was set immediately this past

Monday, and not around 15 January. That also works better

with the time analysis on the next page.

Saturday 16 January is an important astrological date for

grains. At this point Mercury will begin to "run direct" again. I

assume, therefore, that the low has been well placed, and that

next week we can correct in the direction of the ITD4 around

26 January.

On the next page the wheat time analysis starting 10 January,

which we will follow in the near future.

Mercury affects grain

prices. The arrows on

top (pink-blue-pink)

indicate the times when

Mercury begins to run

retrograde, as well as

the exact midpoint in

between.

The orange arrows

indicate the times at

which Mercury moves

fastest.

We take note of these

times, especially during

highs and lows, or when

exchange rate

movement accelerates.

Page 9: A weekly analysis of expected influences of cycles and

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Extra time analysis for Wheat (10 January)

The analysis below is from 10 January, and I will let it stand for the next few weeks. We will

follow its progress. The latest high is on 11 January, and the downtrend has started.

Above are five periods of 90 calendar days (CD), which we have used before, with 31 August

as a special date. On the basis of time relationships and fibonacci I expect and important low

around 1 March.

The Gann Wheel shows

the latest highs/lows,

with 1 March forming a

square with the June

and December highs,

and 30–31 August the

midpoint between these

two highs and 61.8%

from the 6 January high

to the 1 June high.

Page 10: A weekly analysis of expected influences of cycles and

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Soybeans Delta (future March 2010)

We have nearly arrived at the ITD2 we expected to be lower.

Better wait to trade till the MTD12 has been set, also because

there may be an inversion in the ITD, and there may be an

extra ITD(1) between the ITD1 and ITD2. In that case the ITD2

becomes a high instead of a low. That is still a possibility.

The ITD1 should actually not have risen above the ITD11. This

has to do with the future bill of exchange. I am leaving the

MTD11/MTD12 alone for the time being. If it works out, they

may move to the ITD12/ITD1. It makes no difference in the

forecast.

According to seasonal trends for soybeans, they often rise a

little bit from mid-January to the end of February, in contrast

to wheat.

For now avoid soybeans until we know if there is an inversion

in the ITD cycle, and where the MTD12 and MLTD11 are going

to be set.

Mercury affects grain

prices. The arrows on

top (pink-blue-pink)

indicate the times when

Mercury begins to run

retrograde, as well as

the exact midpoint in

between.

The orange arrows

indicate the times at

which Mercury moves

fastest.

We take note of these

times, especially during

highs and lows, or when

exchange rate

movement accelerates.

Page 11: A weekly analysis of expected influences of cycles and

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Gold (COMEX) Delta

The recent course of the exchange has prompted me to

assume an inversion of the ITD cycle after all. The

MLTD15 low will then better tally with the expected

Jupiter turning point. The next two astrological turning

points will then also be in agreement.

Next week I will take another look at the November

analysis and the Jupiter turning points. There is still a

small possibility that last week's scenario will come about.

This means no inversion in the ITD cycle and an ITD4 high

around 20-–22 January.

But right now we assume a lower ITD4 around 20–22

January, which has to come below last Wednesday's low

(1118,50).

The question is whether the MLTD15 turns out lower than

the MLTD13. That is only a matter of price. If so, the LTD6

willl be placed a bit later.

Turning Points

Date

9-1 (high)

20-22/1 (low)

1-3/2 (high)

15-17/2

27/2 – 4/3

Page 12: A weekly analysis of expected influences of cycles and

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Astro Analysis: XSpect indicator

The XSpect trend is directed upward for t he long term, but downward

between August 2009 and June 2010, in the direction of November–February,

where we are drawn astrologically. Nevertheless, the exchange rate will keep

going higher, and that is a strong sign. After February the powers go upward

again toward June 2010. In between we see a number of lows, which we must

take into account.

The next important point is 26-1.

Turning Points

Date

26-1

7-2

20-2

The Xspect is an

indicator of an

astrologically

moving average

based on the

aspects and

movements of the

planets. These are

comparable to a

Bradley graph, but

I am convinced

this one is much

better. Unlike

with Bradley, we

can also look at

the trend, but

only long-term

(years). The

smaller wave

movements show

turning points;

the specific dates

appear in the

chapter “Turning

Points.”

Note: This

indicator applies

only to the

indices, not to the

commodities!

Page 13: A weekly analysis of expected influences of cycles and

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Planet speed

Usually, around the turning point in the

blue/orange line there is also a turning point in

the exchange rate, especially in the orange

speed line. I will shortly show some historical

graphs again to demonstrate this. But what to

think of the latest turning points?

The total mean speed of the moon through

Neptune was highest on 27 December, and

then decreased.

The blue squares with the turning points,

including the ultimate and penultimate swing

represent the time span where the major

highs/lows are found. Amore important high

may be nearby and a following low as well,

between 20 January and 6 March.

This graph shows the speed of specific planets.

As soon as a planet, as seen from the earth,

stops momentarily and begins to run

retrograde, its speed is also shown in reverse in

the graph. Therefore the highs are flipped over,

as it were, revealing the moments at which a

planet begins to run retrograde and reverse

itself again. In addition, the 50% moment

between retrograde and direct becomes visible

as well. This can be seen in the orange line with

the combined speed of Jupiter–Pluto.

At these moments—retrogade, direct, and the

midpoint between—remarkable lows and highs

sometimes occur, and they may be volatile

points in time.

The blue line represents the combined speeds

of the moon, the sun, and Mercury through

Pluto.

Note: These moments apply to indices as well

as to commodities.

Page 14: A weekly analysis of expected influences of cycles and

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Conclusion and trading advice

Indices

By the beginning of next week around 20 January a

low in the indexes. After that upward toward 1–3

February.

Few astrological links can be established for the

moment.

The DAX deserves extra clarification. It retains 26

January as a high; 26 January is also an astrological

turning point. Is an inversion in the ITD cycle still

possible, and does the 26th become a low,

creating better agreement with the other indexes?

A deviation, therefore, from the other indexes—so

pay attention.

S&P500

Goal: Upward toward the MTD7 by the beginning

of February.

This week: We probably start a little lower this

week and then bounce back toward the ITD1 in

the beginning of February.

DAX

Goal: Upward toward the MTD6 around 26

January.

This week: We probably start a little lower at the

beginning of this week and then bounce back

toward the ITD4 at the beginning of February.

Note: If we should go below 5829,64, the low will

come later and the ITD4 becomes a low. Upward

after that toward the beginning of February.

Page 15: A weekly analysis of expected influences of cycles and

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FTSE100

Goal: Up toward the MTD6 around 20 February.

This week: Down toward the ITD1 around 20

January. Then up toward beginning of February.

AEX

Goal: Up toward the MTD2 around31 January.

This week: Down toward the ITD3 around 19

January. Then up toward beginning of February.

Wheat

Goal: Down toward the MTD3 around 5 February.

This week: Up toward the ITD4 around 26

January.

Soybeans

Goal: Down toward the MTD13 around the end of

February.

This week: Down a little toward 20 January. Then

up toward the end of January. Avoid soybeans for

now (see analysis).

Page 16: A weekly analysis of expected influences of cycles and

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Gold

Goal: Down toward the MTD5 around 1 March.

This week: Down toward the ITD4 around 20

January. Then up toward the ITD5 around 1

February.

Page 17: A weekly analysis of expected influences of cycles and

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Appendix

Delta

The Delta analysis in this report is based on the Delta analysis of Wellis Wilder & Jim Slogan.

Actually, this analysis is based on astrology, and reflects a calculated average of astrological

cycles. Like WD Gann, we first look at the long-term cycles, and then at the smaller cycles, or

“wheels within wheels.”

In every law of nature there is a major and a minor; a positive, a negative, and a neutral.

Therefore, in cycles there must be a lesser, a greater, and an intermediate cycle, or cycles

within cycles.

Like Ezekiel says: “Wheel within a wheel."

THE TUNNEL THRU THE AIR, WD GANN

Colors used

The following colors were used per time frame.

Intermediate-Term Delta = ITD = blue

Medium-Term Delta = MTD = red

Medium-Long-Term Delta = MLTD = black

Long-Term Delta = LTD = purple

Super-Long-Term Delta = SLTD = green

Question marks after numbers

A question mark after a number indicates that the placement of that moment is not yet

definite. We proceed on that assumption, of course, but an adjustment may follow. This

occurs especially with inversions, where the calculation of a certain time frame at times goes

through a period of uncertainty. When this happens, an extra end number and/or a 1 may

be inserted. The greater the cycle or time frame, the greater the Delta, and therefore the

chance that number will be moved. Trading in a period of inversion is usually not to be

recommended until we have placed number 2.

Why the S&P, FTSE, DAX and AEX

The S&P500 is analyzed because it involves a broad index, which suits Delta very well. The

Dow Jones for instance, with only 30 shares, is less uitable for a Delta analysis, which will be

a little less reliable. The AEX, also with only +/- 30 shares, also has this slightly

disadvantageous effect, but of course, our own index as well as the German DAX should be

Page 18: A weekly analysis of expected influences of cycles and

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included. To support the DAX/AEX (read European) Delta analysis I have included the English

FTSE100 (with a mix of 102 shares).

Why wheat and soybeans

Wheat is a grain, and an absolutely vital commodity, according to archaeologists probably

the first product cultivated and traded by man. Wheat is the second most produced

agricultural product in the world on the basis of volume, behind corn and before rice.

Soybeans are legumes, which serve as the raw material for many soy products. Most

soybeans are converted to soybean oil. Soybean oil is the most-consumed vegetable oil

worldwide.

According to WD Gann, speculation in commodities is more profitable than speculation in

shares/indices, because you trade something that is essential to life. Commodities follow the

laws of supply and demand, and usually follow seasonal trends. That is the reason why

these very important commodities are included in this report. I also always look at—and

take into account—seasonal trends as shown by my own research and that of WD Gann.

Large profits in the grain market are made by following the main trend, and avoiding

changing position or taking the profit until the market indicates that trends are changing. We

are going to apply WD Gann’s rules, in combination with Delta.

Wheat and soybean trade is based on future contracts. The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT,

www.cbot.com), as the best-known exchange, offers these contracts, but they can also be

traded very well via a turbo. When American markets are open, you can find clear graphs on

www.cbot.com, shown with a short delay.

Note: The existing turbos go along with the prices in this report nearly 1 to 1. I use the

following rule: I take the price of the first running contract month, and 21 days before it ends

I roll it over to the next higher contract month(RBS/ABN does this also, and takes at least 10

days for this). WD worked the same way. This will probablyy always lead to a (small) rise in

the exchange rates at the moment of rollover. The price of a turbo will not be influenced,

but the level of financing will be adapted to the price difference between the two turbos,

and the stoploss can be adjusted.

Page 19: A weekly analysis of expected influences of cycles and

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