a tour of the global economy (in one chart pack) · while the macroscope model is forward looking,...
TRANSCRIPT
4 October 2019
A Tour of the Global Economy (in one chart pack)
Chief Analyst, Head of International MacroJakob Ekholdt Christensen+45 4512 [email protected]
Chief AnalystAllan von Mehren+45 45 12 80 [email protected]
Senior ECB/ Euro area AnalystPiet P. H. Christiansen45 45 13 20 [email protected]
AnalystAila Mihr+45 45 12 85 [email protected]
Senior AnalystMikael Olai Milhøj+45 45 12 76 [email protected]
Important certifications and disclosures are contained from page 157 of this report
Investment Research
Investment Research
22
We aim this chart pack at readers who like to dive deep into the global macro economy. It takes around 15 minutes to flip through all the charts but readers should have a good sense of the current state of the world once they are through.
The chart pack is a supplement to MacroScope – position for long duration in bond market as 'Red' phase is here to stay, 17 September . While the MacroScope model is forward looking, this chart pack gives a an overview of key economic indicators
for and drivers of the global economy.
• The global economy is at a precarious moment. While OECD leading indicators point to further downside,
PMI new orders actually picked up, driven partly by China and stabilising world trade growth.
• Geographically, the most weakness is found in euro area manufacturing, not least in German
manufacturing orders, and the US manufacturing indicators point to an industrial recession.
• The weakness is driven, in particular, by soft investments and business confidence globally, which are both at levels normally seen in G7 recessions, while corporate earnings growth is also waning or even negative in the euro area and emerging markets.
• The stalwart of the global economy so far, the confidence of private consumers has started to show weakness despite still robust real income growth. This is evident in China and to some extent US while euro area consumer confidence remains resilient.
• Monetary easing is showing up around the world: US financial conditions impulse is still positive (though waning a bit), Chinese M1 and euro area money growth have picked up. There is increasingly solid growth
in private sector loans in the euro area.
• This stimuli is important reason behind our call that the global economy will see a modest pickup next year, provided that the US-China trade war does not escalate.
Key observations
33
Global overview
US
Euro
China
Japan
Other
Contents
4
OECD leading indicators – levels
Global cyclical overviewGlobal cyclical overview
Source: Macrobond Financial, OECD
Index
Link to overview page
5
OECD leading indicators – monthly momentum
Global cyclical overview
Source: Macrobond Financial, OECD
Link to overview page
6
Global MacroScope models (for OECD Composite Leading Indicators – CLI)
Global cyclical overview
Source: Danske Bank
Note:
Short lead model has 1-3m lead
Medium lead model aims has 3-6m lead
Index
Link to overview page
7
MacroScope medium lead models – across regions(for OECD Composite Leading Indicators – CLI)
Global cyclical overview
Source: Danske Bank
Index
Link to overview page
8
Global PMI
Global cyclical overview
Source: Macrobond Financial, Markit
Index
Link to overview page
9
Container index vs PMI
Global cyclical overview
Source: Macrobond Financial, RWI, Danske Bank
Link to overview page
10
OECD consumer
Global cyclical overviewGlobal cyclical overview
Source: Macrobond Financial, OECD, Danske Bank
Link to overview page
11
G3 real income proxy for consumers
Global cyclical overviewGlobal cyclical overview
Source: Macrobond Financial, OECD, Danske Bank
Link to overview page
12
G3 inflation – simple model on oil
Global cyclical overviewGlobal cyclical overview
Source: Macrobond Financial, OECD, Danske Bank
Link to overview page
13
OECD capex
Global cyclical overview
Source: Macrobond Financial, OECD, Danske Bank
Link to overview page
14
Profit growth
Global cyclical overview
Source: Macrobond Financial, MSCI
Link to overview page
15
US
Link to overview page
16
MacroScope models for US(for OECD Composite Leading Indicators – CLI)
US
Source: Danske Bank
Note:
Short lead model has 1-3m lead
Medium lead model aims has 3-6m lead
Index
Link to overview page
17
MacroScope vs ISM manufacturing index
US
Source: Macrobond Financial, Danske Bank
Link to overview page
18
US surprise index
US cyclical overviewUS
Source: Macrobond Financial, Bloomberg, Danske Bank
Link to overview page
19
US sector overview vs US quadrants
US
Leading indicator
1 2
3 4
100
Source: Macrobond Financial, OECD, Danske Bank
Z-score
Link to overview page
Source: Macrobond Financial, OECD, Danske Bank
Source: Macrobond Financial, OECD, Danske BankSource: Macrobond Financial, OECD, Danske Bank
20
US overview – level charts
US
Source: Macrobond Financial, BLS
Link to overview page
Source: Macrobond Financial, BLS
Source: Macrobond Financial, BLS Source: Macrobond Financial, BLS
21
Yield curves vs recessions
US
2y-10y yield curve
inversion date Recession start
Recession #
of years after
inversion
30-12-1988 01-07-1990 1,5
25-05-1998 01-03-2001 2,8
26-12-2005 01-12-2007 1,9
Ave. 2,1
3m-10y yield curve
inversion date
10-11-1988 01-07-1990 1,6
13-11-1997 01-03-2001 3,3
14-12-2005 01-12-2007 2,0
Ave. 2,3
Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank
Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank
22
Financial conditions vs CLI change
US
Note: The Financial Conditions Impulse is based on the change over six months in mortgage yields, USD and the stock market. It differs from a Financial Conditions Index in that it looks at the change rather than level.
Source: Macrobond Financial, Bloomberg, Danske Bank
index %
Link to overview page
23
Financial Conditions Impulse components
US
Source: Macrobond Financial, Bloomberg, Danske Bank
index
Link to overview page
24
ISM manufacturing vs US demand indicator
US
Source: Macrobond Financial, ISM, Danske Bank
Link to overview page
25
Components in demand indicator
US
Source: Macrobond Financial, BLS
Link to overview page
26
ISM vs Conference Board leading indicator
US
Source: Macrobond Financial, Conference Board, ISM, Danske Bank
Link to overview page
27
ISM manufacturing
US
Source: Macrobond Financial, ISM, OECD
Link to overview page
28Link to overview page
ISM manufacturing vs. US PMI manufacturing
US
Source: Macrobond Financial, Markit,
29
ISM manufacturing vs. regional surveys
US
Source: Macrobond Financial, ISM
Link to overview page
Source: Macrobond Financial, ISM
Source: Macrobond Financial, ISM Source: Macrobond Financial, ISM
30
ISM service
US
Source: Macrobond Financial, ISM, OECD
Link to overview page
31
Aggregate hours worked
US
Source: Macrobond Financial, BLS
Link to overview page
32
Consumer confidence
US
Source: Macrobond Financial, Conference Board, Bloomberg
Link to overview page
33
Consumer confidence vs CLI
US
Source: Macrobond Financial, BLS
Link to overview page
34
Small business optimism
US
Source: Macrobond Financial, ISM, NFIB
Link to overview page
35
Goods consumption and ISM
US
Source: Macrobond Financial, BLS, ISM
Link to overview page
36
Consumption: retail sales
US
Source: Macrobond Financial, BLS
Link to overview page
37
Consumption: car sales
US
Source: Macrobond Financial, BLS
Link to overview page
38
Real income vs goods consumption
US
Source: Macrobond Financial, BLS, Danske Bank
Link to overview page
39
US real wage growth
US
Source: Macrobond Financial, BLS, Danske Bank
Link to overview page
40
Consumption: energy costs
US
Source: Macrobond Financial, Bloomberg, Danske Bank
Link to overview page
41
Consumer: wealth
US
Source: Macrobond Financial, BLS, Danske Bank
Link to overview page
42
Consumer: debt cost
US
Source: Macrobond Financial, BLS
Link to overview page
43
Labour market: ISM
US
Source: Macrobond Financial, BLS, ISM
Link to overview page
44
Labour market: claims
US
Source: Macrobond Financial, BLS, Danske Bank
Link to overview page
45
Labour market: unemployment
US
Source: Macrobond Financial, BLS
Link to overview page
46
Labour market: employment and GDP
Source: Macrobond Financial, BLS
US
Link to overview page
47
Labour market: participation and labour force
US
Source: Macrobond Financial, BLS
Link to overview page
48
Capex: durable goods orders
US
Source: Macrobond Financial, BLS
Link to overview page
49
Capex: Philly Fed capex outlook
US
Source: Macrobond Financial, Philadelphia Fed
Link to overview page
50
Capex: CEO Round Table capex outlook
US
Source: Macrobond Financial, CEO Round Table, Danske Bank
Link to overview page
51
Capex: shipments
US
Source: Macrobond Financial, BLS, Danske Bank
Link to overview page
52
US productivity
Source: Macrobond Financial, BLS, Danske Bank
US
Link to overview page
53
Housing: confidence
US
Source: Macrobond Financial, NAHB
Link to overview page
54
Housing: home sales
US
Source: Macrobond Financial, BLS
Link to overview page
55
Housing: permits and starts
US
Source: Macrobond Financial, BLS
Link to overview page
56
Housing: permits vs mortgage rates
US
Source: Macrobond Financial, BLS, Danske Bank
Permits decline despite lower rates after financial crisis due to significant oversupply
Link to overview page
57
Housing: US impulse from mortgage rates
US
Source: Macrobond Financial, Bloomberg, Danske Bank
Link to overview page
58
Housing: prices
US
Source: Macrobond Financial, FHFA, Danske Bank
Link to overview page
59
Housing – affordability
US
Source: Macrobond Financial, National Association of Realtors, Danske Bank
Link to overview page
60
Credit: lending standards
US
Source: Macrobond Financial, Federal Reserve
Link to overview page
61
Credit yields
US
Source: Macrobond Financial
Link to overview page
62
Public expenditure
US
Source: Macrobond Financial, BEA
Link to overview page
63
Inflation – core PCE
US
Source: Macrobond Financial, BEA
Link to overview page
64
Inflation – core CPI
US
Source: Macrobond Financial, BLS
Link to overview page
65
Inflation – trimmed CPI
US
Source: Macrobond Financial, Cleveland Fed
Link to overview page
66
Headline vs core PCE inflation
US
Source: Macrobond Financial, BEA
Link to overview page
67
Inflation – commodity prices vs headline
US
Source: Macrobond Financial, BEA, ICE, LME
Link to overview page
68
Inflation – different wage measures
US
Source: Macrobond Financial, BLS
Link to overview page
69
Inflation – NFIB and Employment Cost Index
US
Source: Macrobond Financial, BLS, NFIB
Link to overview page
70
Inflation – labour market tightness indicators
US
Source: Macrobond Financial, BLS, NFIB
Note : Components of labour tightness measure on next page
Link to overview page
71
Inflation – labour market tightness indicators
US
Source: Macrobond Financial, BLS, Conference Board, NFIB
Link to overview page
72
U6 unemployment
US
Source: Macrobond Financial, BLS
Link to overview page
73
Euro
Link to overview page
74
MacroScope models
Euro
Source: Danske Bank
Note:
Short lead model has 1-3m lead
Medium lead model aims has 3-6m lead
Index
Link to overview page
75
Euro surprise index
Euro
Source: Macrobond Financial, Danske Bank
z-score
Link to overview page
76
Euro confidence vs OECD leading indicator (CLI)
Euro
Source: Macrobond Financial, OECD, Danske Bank
Index
Link to overview page
77
German ifo vs CLI
Euro
Source: Macrobond Financial, IFO, OECD, Danske Bank
Index Index
Link to overview page
78
Composite PMI vs CLI
Euro
Source: Macrobond Financial, Markit, OECD, Danske Bank
Index Index
Link to overview page
79
Consumer confidence vs CLI
Euro
Source: Macrobond Financial, OECD, EU Commission
Index Index
Link to overview page
80
Order-inventory balance vs PMI
Euro
Source: Macrobond Financial, Markit, Danske Bank
Link to overview page
81
Euro leading indicator vs GDP
Euro
Source: Macrobond Financial, OECD, Eurostat
Link to overview page
82
Euro PMI vs GDP growth
Euro
Source: Macrobond Financial, Markit, Eurostat
Link to overview page
83
German IP vs GDP
Euro
Source: Macrobond Financial, Bundesbank
Link to overview page
84
Euro – ZEW vs CLI
Euro
Source: Macrobond Financial, OECD, ZEW
Link to overview page
85
Euro PMI vs China and US PMI
Euro
Source: Macrobond Financial, Markit, Danske Bank
Link to overview page
86
Industrial production – level
Euro
Source: Macrobond Financial, Eurostat
Link to overview page
87
German orders – level
Euro
Source: Macrobond Financial, Bundesbank
Link to overview page
88
German orders – growth vs Euro PMI
Euro
Source: Macrobond Financial, Markit, Bundesbank
Link to overview page
89
GDP and demand sub-components
Euro
Link to overview page
Source: Macrobond Financial, Eurostat
Source: Macrobond Financial, Eurostat Source: Macrobond Financial, Eurostat
Source: Macrobond Financial, Eurostat
90
German orders – capex level
Euro
Source: Macrobond Financial, Bundesbank
Link to overview page
91
Investment growth
Euro
Source: Macrobond Financial, Eurostat
Link to overview page
92
Investment level
Euro
Source: Macrobond Financial, Eurostat
Link to overview page
93
Retail sales and consumer confidence
Euro
Source: Macrobond Financial, EU Commission, Eurostat
Link to overview page
94
Retail sales – level
Euro
Source: Macrobond Financial, Eurostat
Link to overview page
95
Car sales
Euro
Source: Macrobond Financial, ACEA
Link to overview page
96
Real income
Euro
Source: Macrobond Financial, Danske Bank, Eurostat
Link to overview page
97
Real wage growth
Euro
Source: Macrobond Financial, Eurostat, ECB
Link to overview page
98
Euro gasoline prices
Euro
Source: Macrobond Financial, ICE, European Commission, Eurostat
Link to overview page
Source: Macrobond Financial, ICE, European Commission, Eurostat
99
Exports – PMI
Euro
Source: Macrobond Financial, Markit, Eurostat
Link to overview page
100
Exports – growth
Euro
Source: Macrobond Financial, Eurostat
Link to overview page
101
Exports – growth and PMI
Euro
Source: Macrobond Financial, Markit, Eurostat
Link to overview page
102
Exports – exchange rate impulse
Euro cyclical overviewEuro
Source: Macrobond Financial, Bank of England
Link to overview page
103
Money and GDP
Euro
Source: Macrobond Financial, ECB, Eurostat
Link to overview page
104
Credit – loan growth
Euro
Source: Macrobond Financial, ECB
Link to overview page
105
Credit – lending standards
Euro
Source: Macrobond Financial, ECB
Link to overview page
106
Inflation – core vs headline
Euro
Source: Macrobond Financial, Eurostat
Link to overview page
107
Inflation – core vs. wage inflation
Euro
Source: Macrobond Financial, ECB, Eurostat
Link to overview page
108
Inflation – wage inflation vs unemployment
Euro
Source: Macrobond Financial, ECB
Link to overview page
109
China
Link to overview page
110
PMI indicator (average of Caixin and NBS)
China
Source: Macrobond Financial, Markit, NBS, Danske Bank
Link to overview page
111
NBS vs Caixin PMI
China
Source: Macrobond Financial, Markit, NBS, Danske Bank
Link to overview page
112
Metal prices vs PMI
China
Source: Macrobond Financial, Markit, LME, Danske Bank
Link to overview page
113
Money growth and PMI
China
Source: Macrobond Financial, Markit, People's Bank of China
Link to overview page
114
Credit impulse and PMI
China
Source: Bloomberg, People's Bank of China, Danske Bank
Link to overview page
115
Credit impulse momentum
China
Source: Macrobond Financial, Markit, NBS, Danske Bank
Link to overview page
116
Exports – model
China
Source: Macrobond Financial, NBS, Markit, Danske Bank
Link to overview page
117
Exports – currency impulse
China
Source: Macrobond Financial, NBS, Markit, Danske Bank
Link to overview page
118
Exports – hard data and PMI export orders
China
Source: Macrobond Financial, NBS, Markit, Danske Bank
Link to overview page
119
Electricity generation vs PMI
China
Source: Macrobond Financial, Markit, NBS, Danske Bank
Link to overview page
120
Taiwan PMI vs China PMI
China
Source: Macrobond Financial, Markit, Danske Bank
Link to overview page
121
Hong Kong PMI vs China PMI
China
Source: Macrobond Financial, Markit, Danske Bank
Link to overview page
122
Housing – home sales level
China
Source: Macrobond Financial, NBS, Danske Bank
Link to overview page
123
Housing – home sales and household credit
China
Source: Macrobond Financial, Markit, NBS, People's Bank of China, Danske Bank
Link to overview page
124
Housing – yields vs home sales
China
Source: Macrobond Financial, NBS, People's Bank of China, Danske Bank
Link to overview page
125
Housing – home sales and housing starts
China
Source: Macrobond Financial, NBS, Danske Bank
Link to overview page
126
Inflation – house prices
China
Source: 70-city house prices, Bloomberg
Link to overview page
127
Housing – Australia exports to China vs home sales
China
Source: Macrobond Financial, NBS, Danske Bank
Link to overview page
128
Consumer – retail sales
China
Source: Macrobond Financial, NBS, Danske Bank
Link to overview page
129
Consumer – car sales
China
Source: Macrobond Financial, CAAM, Danske Bank
Link to overview page
130
Profits vs PMI
China
Source: Macrobond Financial, NBS, Markit, Danske Bank
Link to overview page
131
Domestic vs global cycle
China
Source: Macrobond Financial, Markit, Danske Bank
Link to overview page
132
USD/CNY and CNY basket
China
Source: Macrobond Financial, People's Bank of China, Danske Bank
Link to overview page
133
Inflation – CPI
China
Source: Macrobond Financial, NBS, Danske Bank
Link to overview page
134
Inflation – PPI
China
Source: Macrobond Financial, NBS, Danske Bank
Link to overview page
135
Inflation – PPI model
China
Source: Macrobond Financial, NBS, Danske Bank
Link to overview page
136
Inflation – PMI output prices and PPI m/m
Source: Macrobond Financial, Markit, NBS, Danske Bank
China
Link to overview page
137
M1 and industrial commodity prices
Source: Macrobond Financial, Markit, People's Bank of China, Danske Bank
China
Link to overview page
138
Monetary policy – rates
China
Source: Macrobond Financial, Markit, People’s Bank of China
Link to overview page
139
Japan
Link to overview page
140
MacroScope models
Japan
Source: Danske Bank
Note:
Short lead model has 1-3m lead
Medium lead model aims has 3-6m lead
Index
Link to overview page
141
PMI vs CLI
Japan
Source: Macrobond Financial, Markit, OECD
Index Index
Link to overview page
142
Economy Watchers vs PMI
Japan
Source: Macrobond Financial, Markit, CaO
Index Index
Link to overview page
143
Industrial production
Japan
Source: Macrobond Financial, MITI
Index
Link to overview page
144
Consumer – retail sales
Japan
Source: Macrobond Financial, MITI
Link to overview page
145
Retail sales, change
Japan
Source: Macrobond Financial, MITI
Link to overview page
146
Machine orders
Japan
Source: Macrobond Financial, CaO
Link to overview page
147
M2
Japan
Source: Macrobond Financial, Bank of Japan
Link to overview page
148
Other
Link to overview page
149
BRIC PMI
Other
Note: All axes are indices
Source: Macrobond Financial, Markit
Link to overview page
Note: All axes are indices
Source: Macrobond Financial, Markit
Note: All axes are indices
Source: Macrobond Financial, Markit
Note: All axes are indices
Source: Macrobond Financial, Markit
150
China – PMI vs emerging markets
Emerging market – financial markets
Source: Macrobond Financial, Markit, Danske Bank
Link to overview page
151
BRIC bond yields
Emerging market – financial markets
Source: Macrobond Financial
Link to overview page
Source: Macrobond Financial
Source: Macrobond Financial
Source: Macrobond Financial
152
EMBI bond spread and emerging market equities
Source: Macrobond Financial
Emerging market – financial markets
Index
Link to overview page
153
‘Fragile five’ currencies
‘Fragile five’ are the emerging market countries with the biggest imbalances in terms of fiscal and current account deficits, external debt, etc.
Emerging market – financial markets
Source: Macrobond Financial
Link to overview page
154
US high yield
Other
Source: Macrobond Financial, Bloomberg
Link to overview page
155
US high yield
Other
Source: Macrobond Financial, Bloomberg
Link to overview page
156
US high yield vs VIX
Other
Source: Macrobond Financial, Bloomberg
Link to overview page
157157
Disclosures
This research report has been prepared by Danske Bank A/S ('Danske Bank'). The authors of this research report are Jakob Christensen (Chief Analyst), Allan Von Mehren (Chief Analyst), Mikael Milhøj (Senior Analyst), Piet P. H. Christiansen (Senior Analyst) and Aila Mihr (Analyst).
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Report completed: 3 October 2019, 18:25 CEST Report first disseminated: 4 October 2019, 06:40 CEST