A Study of Visual Communication:

Cyclones, Cones and ConfusionGina Eosco

AMS Policy ProgramUniversity of Oklahoma

Slide Title

• Level 1• Level 2

Study Goals Original Goal: What is wrong with the cone of

uncertainty? Current Goal: Phase 1 of answering, how does

scientific intent translate through a graphic to evoke public understanding of science and risk assessment

Forecasters

Public1

2

Evacuate? Stay home? It won’t hit me.

Message Objectives Scientific Uncertainty

“Bottom line the answer to your question is whether we’ll be able to give the public an idea of the uncertainty to provide the real detailed information, well how to use it to decision makers at the local and state level to help them with their tough calls.”

Risk (Impacts) “If you were close enough to that track … then know you should

expect damage within 50 miles of landfall.”

Confidence (certainty) “It [the cone] represents where we expect the center of

circulation to be, within the next so many days, and we have timelines on there every 12 hours. It represents the certainty of where we expect the center of circulation to be, only the circulation, not the impacts.”

Mapping the Objective Messages

Public

Emergency Managers

Private Sector WeatherCompanies

(NBC, ABC, The WeatherChannel, AccuWeather, etc.)

NationalHurricane

Center (NHC)V1-M1

V1-M1

V1-M1

Vx-Mx

V3-M3

V2-M2

Vx-Mx

V3-M3

V2-M2

V= visual; M= verbal or written messageV1-M1 = "cone" and message from NHCV2-M2, V3-M3, ... Vx-Mx = "cones" and message from private sector companiesM

em - message from emergency

managers

Mem

Behavioral Objectives Beginning of Hurricane Season……………Prepare now! Formation……………………………………………. Keep

Listening 5-day Cone………………………………………….. Prepare for

a possible hurricane

…………………………………..….. Start listening to your

emergency managers (EMs)/local

decision makers 3-day Cone………………………………………….. Begin to

Implement Hurricane plan/Listen

to EMs Hurricane/Tropical Storm Watch……….. Listen to

EMs/Implement Your Plan!

Hurricane/Tropical Storm Warning…….. Implement Your Plan!!

Public

Emergency Managers

Private Sector WeatherCompanies

(NBC, ABC, The WeatherChannel, AccuWeather, etc.)

NationalHurricane

Center (NHC)V

1-M

1

V1-M

1-B

t

V1-M

1

Vx-M

x

V3-M

3

V2-M

2

Vx-M

x-B

t

V3-M

3-B

t

V2-M

2-B

t

V= visual; M= verbal or written messageV

1-M

1 = "cone" and message

from NHCV

2-M

2, V

3-M

3, ... V

x-M

x = "cones"

and messages from private sector companiesM

em - message from emergency

managersB

t - behavioral action at time, t

Mem

B48

Mapping the Behavioral Messages

What does all of this mean?

Visuals may have a complex relationship between its design and its verbal/written objectives.

How do these variables interact? And with what effect?

Visual framing may help scientists create visuals that achieve high visual validity, that is, the public may take away the intended message.

Can we create guidelines for visual framing? What other factors play into achieving visual

validity?

Tuesday 8pm

H

W E

N

STuesday 8pm

Wednesday 8am

Thursday 8am

LISTENTO

YOUREMERGENCYMANAGERS

I’ll leave you with this …

Discussion questions• What are the opportunities to extend the

collaborations across sectors & across disciplines to improve forecast effectiveness & broader understanding of weather and climate science?

• What innovative strategies can we recommend

for increasing beneficial communication, collaborations, & coordination within all aspects of the enterprise, & among all sectors of the weather and climate community?

Questions relevant to the Enterprise How do people use forecast and warning information to

make decisions? What weather forecast and warning information do

people want? How can we better understand varying levels of

impacts caused by weather events? How are people affected differently by the same

weather events due to their varying vulnerabilities and abilities to take action?

How can we more effectively communicate weather forecast uncertainty information?

How do we provide good weather forecast and warning information given the proliferation of information (sources, media, modes)?