This article was downloaded by: [University of New Hampshire]On: 09 October 2014, At: 05:58Publisher: RoutledgeInforma Ltd Registered in England and Wales Registered Number: 1072954Registered office: Mortimer House, 37-41 Mortimer Street, London W1T 3JH,UK

The Professional GeographerPublication details, including instructions forauthors and subscription information:http://www.tandfonline.com/loi/rtpg20

A Review of: “UselessArithmetic: Why EnvironmentalScientists Can't Predict theFuture”Jonathan Phillips aa Department of Geography , University ofKentucky , Lexington, KYPublished online: 31 Jan 2008.

To cite this article: Jonathan Phillips (2008) A Review of: “Useless Arithmetic: WhyEnvironmental Scientists Can't Predict the Future”, The Professional Geographer,60:1, 146-147, DOI: 10.1080/00330120701724426

To link to this article: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00330120701724426

PLEASE SCROLL DOWN FOR ARTICLE

Taylor & Francis makes every effort to ensure the accuracy of all theinformation (the “Content”) contained in the publications on our platform.However, Taylor & Francis, our agents, and our licensors make norepresentations or warranties whatsoever as to the accuracy, completeness,or suitability for any purpose of the Content. Any opinions and viewsexpressed in this publication are the opinions and views of the authors, andare not the views of or endorsed by Taylor & Francis. The accuracy of theContent should not be relied upon and should be independently verified withprimary sources of information. Taylor and Francis shall not be liable for anylosses, actions, claims, proceedings, demands, costs, expenses, damages,and other liabilities whatsoever or howsoever caused arising directly orindirectly in connection with, in relation to or arising out of the use of theContent.

This article may be used for research, teaching, and private study purposes.Any substantial or systematic reproduction, redistribution, reselling, loan,sub-licensing, systematic supply, or distribution in any form to anyone isexpressly forbidden. Terms & Conditions of access and use can be found athttp://www.tandfonline.com/page/terms-and-conditions

Dow

nloa

ded

by [

Uni

vers

ity o

f N

ew H

amps

hire

] at

05:

58 0

9 O

ctob

er 2

014

BOOK REVIEWSJay D. Gatrell, Book Review Editor

Useless Arithmetic: Why EnvironmentalScientists Can’t Predict the Future.Orrin H. Pilkey and Linda Pilkey-Jarvis.New York: Columbia University Press, 2007,xv and 230 pp., maps, diagrams, photos, ap-pendix, index. $29.95 (ISBN 0-231-13212-3).

Reviewed by Jonathan Phillips, Department ofGeography, University of Kentucky, Lexing-ton, KY.

To the extent environmental scientists—oranyone else—can predict the future, reason-able predictions call for manifold methodsand approaches consistent with the complex,noisy, protean real world. Different meth-ods are appropriate for different problems,and multiple approaches are necessary to testand constrain predictions and interpretations.Environmental scientists are no less able topredict the future than other groups of scien-tists or scholars who deal with the world onits own terms (as opposed to formal or con-trolled laboratory abstractions thereof). How-ever, when one particular class of methodsgains social, political, or cultural primacy overothers, the checks and balances of multiplemethodologies and the matching of methodto problem fade away. Consequently, scien-tific understanding and predictive skill both arediminished.

Orrin Pilkey is a coastal geologist wellknown to geographers working on coastalissues, and Linda Pilkey-Jarvis is an environ-mental geologist. They argue in this book thatquantitative mathematical models are inappro-priately overused in environmental science, tothe detriment of other (ideally complementary)predictive approaches and applied science andenvironmental management. In the scientificand technical realm, many simulation modelssuffer from errors in characterization of thephenomena being modeled, exclusion or igno-rance of important processes, unknown initialconditions, and inability to account for influ-ences external to the model. In a complex and

complicated world sometimes characterized bydeterministic chaos (i.e., sensitivity to initialconditions), these flaws can result in model out-puts that are embarrassingly and horribly off-target, or even dead wrong. Pilkey and Pilkey-Jarvis give numerous examples, focusing inparticular on marine fisheries management,nuclear waste disposal at Yucca Mountain, sealevel rise, beach erosion, shoreline response toengineered structures, groundwater pollutionin abandoned surface mines, and invasivespecies.

Most quantitative modelers are well awareof the limitations of modeling, but this bookdoes more than simply reiterate those well-known axioms. The substitution of model as-sumptions and algorithmic trickery for data andfield observations, and the devaluing (or evensuppression) of other, non-quantitative-model-based forecasts, results in errors and uncertain-ties well beyond those inherent and inevitablein quantitative simulations. The acceptance ofparticular models as standard representationsof nature, sometimes in blind, arrogant disre-gard of nature itself, multiplies the effects ofthe errors and uncertainties. The use of math-ematics, computer outputs, and numbers as acloak of scientific legitimacy to avoid the hardwork of field observation or to support politicalagendas ensures that mistakes and nonsense doconcrete damage to the public and the planet.The latter may, alas, be perpetrated not justby un- or transcientific interests, but some-times by entrenched cultures of scientists andengineers.

Although concrete examples of these prob-lems are well documented in the book in ajournalistic fashion, those looking for a detailedanalysis of political, economic, social, and cul-tural factors underlying quantitative model useand abuse, as well as the salient power relations,will need to look elsewhere. Likewise, physicalgeographers and other environmental scientistsseeking a detailed analysis of the role of quan-titative mathematical modeling vis-a-vis qual-itative (mathematical and nonmathematical)

The Professional Geographer, 60(1) 2008, pages 146–158 C© Copyright 2008 by Association of American Geographers.Published by Taylor & Francis, LLC.

Dow

nloa

ded

by [

Uni

vers

ity o

f N

ew H

amps

hire

] at

05:

58 0

9 O

ctob

er 2

014

Book Reviews 147

models and nonmodel approaches will not findit here. These aspects are mentioned, but notexplored, as Useless Arithmetic is written for, andaccessible to, the general public. The mathe-matics is kept to an absolute minimum in thebody of the text, and even the examples in theappendix do not require much quantitative ex-pertise to grasp. The book is not suitable as astand-alone text, but could provide useful sup-plementary reading for environmental geogra-phy courses or seminars on environmental sci-ence and management.

The authors are not antiscience, antiquan-tification, or antimodel. They take several op-portunities to show how a balancing of modelswith ground truth, or qualitative mathematicalmodels, can yield good results. The chapter oninvasive species is presented partly as an ob-ject lesson on how acceptance of the complex-ity and contingency of nature can be combinedwith formal modeling frameworks to good ef-fect. The book could have been improved bya bit more of this. I fear that in the zeal to il-lustrate the flaws and misuses of quantitativesimulations, the authors might inadvertentlyprovide ammunition to the various antiscienceforces (from creationists to cultural relativists topoliticos who try to suppress science that doesnot support political agendas) so hard at work ata time when scientific ignorance has such a highpublic cost. Another minor flaw is that Pilkey’slong-running battle with coastal engineers—well known in the coastal science and manage-ment communities—shines through a bit tooclearly. Although I am personally on Pilkey’sside in this, I worry that his attack on the en-gineers could detract from the overall messageof the book.

I hope that these flaws will not result in themessage of the book being abused in the polit-ical realm, or not taken seriously by scientistsand managers. The message is an importantone, and the lessons might indeed transcend theissue of prediction in environmental science.Geography in particular and the environmentaland social sciences in general require (at least inthe aggregate) a plethora of polymethodolog-ical practices, and suffer from privileged pri-macy of any single conceptual framework orset of analytical techniques. Useless Arithmetic isa worthwhile example of this important princi-ple. Key Words: environmental science, prediction,quantitative models.

Making Population Geography. AdrianBailey. London: Hodder Arnold, 2005. xiiiand 226 pp., illustrations, maps, references,and index. $35.00 paper (ISBN 0-340-76264-0).

Reviewed by Samuel M. Otterstrom, Depart-ment of Geography, Brigham Young Uni-versity, Provo, UT.

Adrian Bailey has made an important con-tribution by summarizing and encapsulatingthe complicated beginnings, evolution, andthe potential futures of the dynamic field ofpopulation geography in one book: MakingPopulation Geography. This text is the thirdvolume in the “Human Geography in theMaking” series edited by Alexander Murphy.The book is a valuable overview of a fieldBailey pictures as vibrant and alive, yet at timesseeking for a firmer identity.

Making Population Geography is divided intosix chapters, beginning with a short introduc-tion that outlines the goals and context of thevolume, followed by four longer evaluations ofthe theoretical foundations and developmentof the field of population geography over time,and concluding with a short three-page summa-tion and synthesis of the overarching themespresented in the preceding 189 pages. Eachchapter is packed with substantive conceptualdiscussion that is tied directly to the relevant lit-erature. Bailey takes great effort to make knownthe key ideas of each chapter to the readerthrough the use of outlines, tables, figures, andvignettes, as well as a straightforward narrativestyle.

In the introduction Bailey lays the ground-work. He underscores the evolving effect ofglobalization on the interrelationships betweenthe actions of states and other entities in-volved with pressing population issues. Bai-ley uses short vignettes that tell the storiesof some of these cultural issues (e.g., Israeli–Palestinian conflict, the resurgence of tuber-culosis) that have particular population ge-ography connections. He also explains histhree main goals: to show the ways in whichpopulation geography “add[s] value to our un-derstanding of society” (p. 11), to highlightthe various methods that population geogra-phers have used to approach research ques-tions over time (emphasizing that which isnew), and to reveal how societal factors have

Dow

nloa

ded

by [

Uni

vers

ity o

f N

ew H

amps

hire

] at

05:

58 0

9 O

ctob

er 2

014