A Quarter-Million High-Wage, High-Demand Jobs

Brought to you by the Oregon Employment Department

A Presentation to the Oregon State Board of Education

Graham Slater

January 18, 2008

Occupational Prioritization for Training

A New and Comprehensive Approach to Oregon Workforce Planning

A Presentation to the Oregon State Board of Education

Graham SlaterDecember 12, 2008

But first, a brief follow-up to my January presentation to you:

Introducing our most recent special report:

Working in Oregon …Working in Oregon …… … Now and in the FutureNow and in the Future

• Oregon’s economy in 2008.• Employment in Oregon: Preparing for the Likely

Future• Let’s Aim High for Oregon: 40-40-20 Education Goals

Now to the main focus of today’s presentation: Occupational Prioritization for Training

(or OP4T as it’s becoming known).

• The dreaded question: “Can you give us a demand-supply analysis for every occupation in Oregon, so we can figure out which ones to fund training for?”

• The despised answer: “No.”

• A new approach:• Reject the “one data set for all occupations” approach.• Use the good data for all occupations.• Use the questionable data only for occupations where it

looks reasonably reliable.

A Four-Step Approach

1. Start with Oregon’s high-wage, high-demand occupations

2. Use six “strong data” factors to begin the prioritization of occupations.

3. Use four “weaker data / subjective” factors to refine the prioritization of occupations.

4. Encourage decision-makers to “dig deeper” into the highest priority occupations that are of most interest to them, working with subject matter experts in those occupations.

Step One – High-Wage, High-Demand

• Start with occupations on Oregon’s statewide high-wage (and) high-demand list. • Pay more than the median wage ($15.22 per hour for the

statewide list in 2007) AND• Projected to have more than the median number of openings (283

in ten years for the statewide list in 2007) for all occupations in Oregon.

• Based on concepts and definitions approved by Oregon’s Workforce Investment Board in 2007.

• Add occupations that don’t make the statewide list but make at least five (of the 15) regional high-wage, high-demand lists.

• Step One narrows the focus from all occupations (721 in Oregon) to 269 that pay reasonably high wages and are expected to be in reasonably high demand.

Step Two – Six Strong Data Factors

• Give the 269 occupations scores based on the following characteristics:• Total (growth plus replacement) openings• Relative occupational need• 2008 average wage• Number of vacancies• Duration of vacancies• Geographic diversity of need

Step Two – Six Strong Data Factors

• Methodology for scoring:• List the occupations in a sort from highest to lowest (e.g. most

openings to fewest openings; highest wage to lowest wage)• Identify the quintiles• Give those occupations in the top quintile (e.g. those with the most

openings) a value of 5, those in the next group a value of 4, and so on down to the last quintile, which will get a value of 1.

• Sum each occupation’s scores for each of the six factors.• At the end of this step, Oregon’s 269 high-wage, high-demand

occupations each have a composite (additive) score ranging from 30 (for an occupation that was in the top quintile for all of the above measures) to 6 (for an occupation in the lowest quintile for all measures).

Step Three – Four Important Considerations

• Impact of immigration• Impact of supply / pipeline shortages• Business affirmation of the workforce need• Links to “key” industries

Step Three – Four Important Considerations

• Methodology for scoring:• Give each factor a starting value of 1.0. • Change that factor only if reasonably reliable data or other

information provide a valuable insight for a particular occupation.• Migration factors range from 0.9 to 1.1; supply-demand factors

range from 0.7 to 1.3; key industries and business affirmation factors range from 1.0 to 1.1.

• Multiply each occupation’s “Step Two” score by each of these four factors.

• At the end of this step, Oregon’s 269 high-wage, high-demand occupations each have a composite (additive and multiplicative) score with a possible range from about 52 to about 3.

Step Four – Conversation with Experts is Essential

• The data can only take you so far. Based on the prioritization created from steps 1-3, talk to subject matter experts, and learn more about things like:• Why is the occupation expected to need additional training? • Are certain skills particularly in need? • Is the occupational shortage caused by factors other than the

supply of trained workers? • Is the occupation impacted by specific training, education,

certifications, or skills requirements?• Are there barriers to additional training such as lack of equipment,

faculty, or internships? • Are there opportunities for positive steps that would attract

additional students toward particular occupations, such as scholarships or other incentives?

Exceptions are Allowed

• The Governor, other elected officials, Workforce Boards, other Boards and Commissions are elected or appointed to make important policy decisions.

• Our hope is that this prioritization model, as it is used, and perhaps modified and improved over time, would become a valuable driver for many, even most, workforce training-related resource prioritization decisions.

• But we also completely accept the fact that the above entities, and others like them, must retain the right to make policy choices based on exceptions to this process.

A Method for Many Purposes

• As described thus far, this method can be used to prioritize perceived training needs across all of Oregon’s occupations.

• But with the addition of information linking each occupation to key industries, clusters, economic development or other strategies, it could be used to prioritize perceived training needs within particular groups of occupations. e.g. health care, manufacturing, clean tech, traded sector, apprentice-able.

SOC Code

SOC TitleTotal Openings

2006-2016Final Rank

29-1111 Registered Nurses 13,515 151-4121 Welders, Cutters, Solderers, and Brazers 2,104 229-1060 Physicians and Surgeons 3,224 329-1123 Physical Therapists 865 347-2152 Plumbers, Pipefitters, and Steamfitter 2,011 529-2061 Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses 1,272 549-3023 Automotive Service Technicians and Mechanics 2,982 751-4041 Machinists 1,149 729-2011 Medical and Clinical Laboratory Technologists 1,017 733-2011 Fire Fighters 1,461 1011-9111 Medical and Health Services Managers 1,404 1029-2021 Dental Hygienists 1,223 1211-1021 General and Operations Managers 7,141 1329-1051 Pharmacists 1,192 13

29-2034Radiologic, CAT, and MRI Technologists and Technicians

1,029 13

21-1023 Mental Health and Substance Abuse Social Workers 753 13

41-4012Wholesale and Manufacturing Sales Representatives Non-technical and Scientific

6,577 17

49-9041 Industrial Machinery Mechanics 1,025 17

51-8031Water and Liquid Waste Treatment Plant and System Operators

563 17

31-9091 Dental Assistants 2,723 2011-2021 Marketing Managers 1,266 2029-1122 Occupational Therapists 378 20

Oregon StatewideOccupational Prioritization for Training

Top 20 Occupations

Note: Ranks reflect where an occupation's final score falls in the overall list of 269 high-wage, high-demand occupations. When occupations' scores are tied, more than 20 occupations can rank in the top 20. SOC = Standard Occupational Classification.

SOC Code

SOC TitleTotal Openings

2006-2016Final Rank

29-1111 Registered Nurses 13,515 129-1060 Physicians and Surgeons 3,224 329-1123 Physical Therapists 865 329-2061 Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses 1,272 529-2011 Medical and Clinical Laboratory Technologists 1,017 711-9111 Medical and Health Services Managers 1,404 1029-2021 Dental Hygienists 1,223 1229-1051 Pharmacists 1,192 13

29-2034Radiologic, CAT, and MRI Technologists and Technicians

1,029 13

21-1023 Mental Health and Substance Abuse Social Workers 753 1331-9091 Dental Assistants 2,723 2029-1122 Occupational Therapists 378 2031-9094 Medical Transcriptionists 792 2321-1022 Medical and Public Health Social Workers 471 2343-6013 Medical Secretaries 2,957 3121-1014 Mental Health Counselors 846 3129-1126 Respiratory Therapists 653 3121-1015 Rehabilitation Counselors 964 4229-2012 Medical and Clinical Laboratory Technicians 754 4229-1021 Dentists, General 443 42

Oregon StatewideOccupational Prioritization for Training

Top 20 Health Care Occupations

Note: Ranks reflect where an occupation's final score falls in the overall list of 269 high-wage, high-demand occupations. When occupations' scores are tied, more than 20 occupations can rank in the top 20. SOC = Standard Occupational Classification. Health care occupations are those determined to be necessary for the delivery of health care services in the 2006 Oregon Health Care Workforce Needs Assessment. This determination was made in partnership with industry.

SOC Code

SOC TitleTotal Openings

2006-2016Final Rank

51-4121 Welders, Cutters, Solderers, and Brazers 2,104 247-2152 Plumbers, Pipefitters, and Steamfitter 2,011 549-3023 Automotive Service Technicians and Mechanics 2,982 751-4041 Machinists 1,149 733-2011 Fire Fighters 1,461 1011-1021 General and Operations Managers 7,141 13

41-4012Wholesale and Manufacturing Sales Representatives Non-technical and Scientific

6,577 17

49-9041 Industrial Machinery Mechanics 1,025 17

51-8031Water and Liquid Waste Treatment Plant and System Operators

563 17

11-2021 Marketing Managers 1,266 20

43-1011Supervisors and Managers of Office and Administrative Support Workers

6,407 23

13-2011 Accountants and Auditors 3,744 23

49-3031Bus and Truck Mechanics and Diesel Engine Specialists

1,637 23

15-1071 Network and Computer Systems Administrators 1,405 2315-1021 Computer Programmers 1,322 2349-9044 Millwrights 551 23

25-1199Postsecondary Teachers, Except Graduate Teaching Assistants

6,887 31

41-4011Wholesale and Manufacturing Sales Representatives; Technical and Scientific

2,236 31

49-1011Supervisors and Managers of Mechanics, Installers, and Repairers

1,843 31

47-2073Operating Engineers and Other Construction Equipment Operators

1,556 31

13-1051 Cost Estimators 1,297 3111-3031 Financial Managers 1,248 3111-9021 Construction Managers 1,170 3117-2141 Mechanical Engineers 1,108 31

Oregon StatewideOccupational Prioritization for Training

Top 20 Occupations (Excluding Health Care)

Note: Ranks reflect where an occupation's final score falls in the overall list of 269 high-wage, high-demand occupations. When occupations' scores are tied, more than 20 occupations can rank in the top 20. SOC = Standard Occupational Classification. This list excludes health care occupations, but includes all other occupations. Health care occupations are those determined to be necessary for the delivery of health care services in the 2006 Oregon Health Care Workforce Needs Assessment. This determination was made in partnership with industry.

Next Steps

• Already shared with numerous agency heads, Workforce Policy Cabinet, Oregon Workforce Investment Board.

• November:• Develop regional prioritizations• Develop on-line tool

• December:• Present to Oregon State Board of Education• Release on-line tool

• January• Publish special report

Please contact us if you have any comments or questions about this presentation.

And please visit our web site – www.QualityInfo.org – for more information about Oregon’s economy and workforce.

Graham SlaterGraham.J.Slater@state.or.us

(503) 947-1212

Jessica NelsonJessica.R.Nelson@state.or.us

(503) 947-1276