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The Arizona Legislative Alert - A project of UUJAZ and VUU. Giving Voice to UU Values in Arizona

Election Wrapup (11/14 Update)

November 14, 2018

Prepared by Anne L. Schneider, PH.D. opinions are those of the author.

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Get the PDF here ). http://files.vuu.org/uujaz/2018/alert-111418.pdf

Only races still “out” are

• Katie Hobbs (D) is still leading and almost sure is going to win this race

with a margin of 4,000 to 8,000 votes. Still votes to be counted.

• Brophy-McGee ( R) (State Senate, District 28) leading Christine Marsh (D)

by 472 votes out of about 85000. There are no provisions for recounts

unless this gets within 50 votes.

• Only about 20,000 votes being counted each day now. Most are from Pima

county (about 19,000) and Maricopa (100,000) and both favor Democrats.

• Nationally – Democrats continue to pick up seats in the U.S. House of

Representatives and will control it; Republicans will control the Senate with

51 or more Senators compared 47, 48, 49 depending on how various races

end up.

• Sinema (D) for U.S. Senate has won by about 38,000 votes out of 2,258,722

counted so far (57% turnout). This is the seat currently held by Sen. Jeff

Flake who did not run again. There are an estimated 150,000 left to be

counted

• Kathy Hoffman (D) has won the State Superintendent of Instruction by

54,000 or more votes.

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• Sandra Kennedy is leading for first of two positions for Corporation

Commission and leads third place person by 15,000. She has won a seat on

the Commission. Justin Olson has won the second seat.

Implications of the Secretary of State race for Arizona and the U.S. Senate. If

Katie Hobbs wins the Secretary of State race, she will then be “next in line” for

the Arizona Governor, as AZ has no Lt. Governor. The implication here is

interesting in that Jon Kyle was appointed to fill John McCain’s senate seat. Kyl

said he would only serve to the end of 2018. This means re-elected Doug Ducey

can appoint someone else to that seat. If he appoints himself, which is possible, it

would mean the Secretary of State would become Governor – and if that is Katie

Hobbs, it would turn the Governorship over to a Democrat. (This happened

when Janet Napolitano left the Governor’s office to take a position in the Obama

Administration and Jan Brewer became Governor for two years and was then re-

elected). So, the chances of Gov. Ducey appointing himself to the McCain Senate

seat are slim if Hobbs wins the Secretary of State position. He could appoint

McSally. She gave a very nice concession speech, and Sinema gave a very

gracious acceptance speech. Forward with a new politics?

With only a small number of ballots still to be counted in Arizona, most races

have been called. A final will be posted after election results are official. You

can find updates daily posted on the AZSOS site

https://results.arizona.vote/#/state/4/0

Recounts? In Arizona, for a state-wide race, the race has to be really close, like

200 votes out of the two million; and for a state legislative race, it needs to be

within 50 votes for an automatic recount. There are no legal provisions in

Arizona for a person to pay for a recount. Also, recounts would not begin until

the election results are officially validated, which is on December 3.

• Nationally - Democrats have won a majority in the U.S. House of

Representatives (226 to 197 with 13 still too close to call) but Republicans

maintain (and may extend slightly) their control of the Senate 51-45 with

four still not called. Control of the U. S. House by Democrats is

extraordinarily important, as it means there will be serious, organized

opposition to the DJT agenda, including the almost-certainly illegal

appointment of Matt Whitaker as Attorney General.

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• U.S. Senate – Sinema has won with a margin just below 40,000!

• Congress House District 1 – O’Halleran (D)

• Congress House District 2 – Kirkpatrick (D)

• Congress House District 3 – Grijalva (D)

• Congress House District 4 – Gosar ( R)

• Congress House District 5 – Biggs ( R)

• Congress House District 6 – Sweigert ( R)

• Congress House District 7 – Gallego (D)

• Congress House District 8 – Lesko ( R) • Congress House District 9 – Stanton (D)

In Arizona

• Republicans still control all three branches of Arizona Government:

Governor, Senate, and House, but the margin of control is noticeably

smaller in the House than before, currently 31-29 and in the Senate

probably still 17-13. In Arizona, a tie in the Legislature on a vote means the

bill fails, so this might produce more bipartisan compromises especially in

the House.

• Brophy-McGee still leads by a small amount in district 28 Senate race 536

votes out of about 85,000) but this has not changed much in the past few

days. If this gets within 50 votes, there would be an automatic recount,

• Democrats “flipped” four Republican-held districts to Democratic in the

House, while not losing any.

• State Races –

o Governor – Ducey (R)

o Attorney General – Brnovich (R)

o Secretary of State – Hobbs is UP now by about 5,000 votes.

o State Treasurer – Yee (R )

o State Superintendent of Public Instruction HOFFMAN (D) up by

about 54000 and has won.

o Mine Inspecter – Hart (R )

o Corporation commissioner (elect 2). Kennedy (D) has won one seat

and Justin Olson the other.

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• Propositions – Prop 305, the effort to expand vouchers (“empowerment

scholarships”) to all K-12 students went down to a huge defeat, 70%

saying NO to vouchers, 30% saying YES.

o Prop 125 Passed – Reform of the retirement system for some

categories of public employees – YES 52%, NO 48%

o Prop 126 – Passed – This PROHIBITS any increases or new taxes on

services. YES 65% No 35%. This is a blow to education and other

public services!

o Prop 127 – An effort to set higher standards for clean energy in the

Arizona constitution FAILED as 69% voted no and 31% voted yes.

o Prop 305 – DEFATED! This defeats the effort to expand eligibility

for vouchers that take money from public schools and permit it to

be used for tuition at private schools, religious schools, home

schooling or other expenses, with almost no accountability for the

actual use of the funds. A BIG WIN for public education. 70% NO,

30% YES.

o Prop 306 – An effort to handcuff the Arizona Clean Elections

Commission in its rule making and enforcement authority

PASSED, 56% to 44% meaning it will be even harder to keep dark

money out of politics.

• Judges – All supreme court judges were retained as were those in the two

Superior court districts.

• Central Arizona Water Board (5 slots) – Voters returned three incumbents

who were endorsed by the Sierra club, another conservation advocate

also endorsed by Sierra club, and one whose positions are not known, out

of the 14 candidates. Winning seats are incumbents – Lisa Atkins, Terry

Goddard and Heather Macre – and newcomer Jennifer Martin, a

coordinator for the Sierra Club’s Water Sentinels project who will be an

outspoken voice for water conservation. The fifth seat when to April

Pinger, whose positions on water are largely a mystery.

Get the PDF here ). http://files.vuu.org/uujaz/2018/alert-110918.pdf

Volunteer & Activism

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• Take a rest for a few days! Then, we will get back to work.

No One Is Above the Law: Rallies in Case DJT interfers with

Mueller

Rallies were held Thursday evening throughout Arizona and the United States in

response to DJT’s removal of Jess Sessions as AG and his appointment of Matt

Whitaker, which almost certainly is a violation of the succession acts (U.S. Code 5

– 3345 and 28 U.S. Code 508 as well as a violation of the U. S. Constitution, Article

II. Whitaker was NOT in the statutorily-mandated line of succession, as he was

Session’s chief of staff, and did not hold a position at DOJ that required Senatorial

approval. In addition, his supervision of the Mueller investigation almost

certainly is a violation of the terms that established the special counsel position.

Sign up for the “instant response” to be notified of next steps by the “No One is

Above the Law” coalition. There was an impressive showing of people

throughout Arizona in response to the call for action that took place within 24

hours of DJT’s actions. https://www.trumpisnotabovethelaw.org/event/mueller-

firing-rapid-response/search/.

Or, you can text 668-366 with the word “alert.” Here’s how: click on

“messages” on your I-phone, then click on the pencil in the top right hand

corner. If there is no pencil, push the back arrow. You will get a “to” screen.

Put 668-366 in it, then in the message (down at bottom) type “alert.”

Contact information:

Sen. Jon Kyl’s Office, Washington. G12 Dirksen Senate Office Building, Washington, DC 20510

Phone: 202-224-2235. Phoenix: 2210 E. Camelback Rpoad, suite 115. Phone 602 952 2410 Tucson, 407 W.

Congress St., Suite 103. Phone 520 670 6334.

• Sen. Jeff Flake • Washington D.C. Sen. Jeff Flake - 202 224 4521. 413 Russell Senate Office Building Washington DC 20510

e-mail: https://www.flake.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/contact-jeff

Find your district here if you don’t know it

https://azredistricting.org/districtlocator/

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Scroll down to get the names of Democratic and Republican candidates in

YOUR district and the winner of each race.

Resistbot.io - How to use it. Click on the “messages” icon on your i-phone, then

click on the pencil in the top right-hand corner. You will get a “To: “ screen. Put

in 504-09 and then in the message type “resist.” They will respond and ask for

your zip code or address and what you want to do. This is a free service,

reportedly developed by volunteers. It will ask for your zip code or address, and

then you can send a fax, letter, make a phone call, send an e-mail to Sen. Flake

and Kyl and the House member as well or even to Governor Ducey.

After you have sent several, it will ask you which of the various people you want

it sent to. At first, it just sends to all three, later it will add state-level elected

officials, too. You get more services after you’ve used it awhile!

Election Wrapup (not final) for 2018 Election

If this is not displaying properly, get the pdf at

this link http://files.vuu.org/uujaz/2018/alert-111418.pdf

Arizona 2018 State-Wide Races (Governor, etc.)

STATE WIDE RACES (I – Incumbent) GOVERNOR Republicans Democrats Vote Margin Doug Ducey (I) David Garcia 56% - 41%

ATTORNEY GENERAL Mark Brnovich (I) January Contreras 52 - 48

SECRETARY OF STATE

Steve Gaynor 1,037,122 Katie Hobbs 1,035,114 She gained another 7,000 votes in the last update and now leads by 5,667.

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There’ss still more to be counted. She might pull it off.

STATE TREASURER

Kimberly Yee Mark Manoil 55 - 45

STATE SUPERINTENDENT OF PUBLIC INSTRUCTION

Frank Riggs 999,460 Kathy Hoffman 1,043,023 Hoffman now has a commanding lead.

MINE INSPECTOR Joe Hart William Pierce 52 - 48

CORPORATION COMMISSION (two slots) Justin Olson 945240 Sandra Kennedy 949882 Kennedy has now pulled

ahead and she and Olson probably will win.

Rodney Glassman 941365 Kiana Sears

SENATE Arizona State Senate election candidates

Vote for just ONE Find your district here https://azredistricting.org/districtlocator/

Republicans 16 Democrats 13. District 28 not settled yet.

Distric

t

Democrat

Republican

1 Jo Craycroft Karen Fann (I) 70 -30

2

Andrea Dalessandro (I) Shelley Kais 57 – 43

3 Sally Ann Gonzales No candidate 100

4 Lisa Otondo (I) No candidate 100

5 J'Amie Morgaine Sonny Borrelli (I) 75-25

6 Wade Carlisle Sylvia Tenney Allen (I) 52-48

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7 Jamescita Peshlakai (I) JL Mealer 67-33

8 Sharon Girard Frank Pratt (I) 57-43

9 Victoria Steele No candidate 100

10 David Bradley (I) Marilyn Wiles 57-33

11 Ralph Atchue Venden Leach 55-45

12 Elizabeth Brown Eddie Farnsworth 58-42

13 Michelle Harris Sine Kerr (I) 63-37

14 Jamie Alvarez David Gowan 61-39

15 Kristin Dybvig-Pawelko Heather Carter 61-39

16 Benjamin Carmitchel David Farnsworth (I) 63-37

17 Steve Weichert J.D. Mesnard 51-48

18 Sean Bowie (I) Frank Schmuck 55-45

19 Lupe Contreras (I) No candidate 100

20 Douglas Ervin Paul Boyer 49-44

21 No candidate Rick Gray (I) 100

22 Wendy Garcia David Livingston 64-36

23 Daria Lohman Michelle Ugenti-Rita 58-42

24 Lela Alston Vicki Alger 70-30

25 Kathy Mohr-Almeida Tyler Pace 62-38

26 Juan Mendez (I) Rebecca Speakman 64-36

27 Rebecca Rios No candidate 100

28 Christine Marsh Kate Brophy McGee (I) McGee up by 617.

29 Martin Quezada (I) No candidate 100

30 Otoniel Navarrete No candidate 100

Notes • An (I) denotes an incumbent.

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Arizona House of Representatives Election Candidates, Vote for 2

Find your district here if you don’t know it https://azredistricting.org/districtlocator/

Three seats changed from Republican to Democrat. Republicans 32 – Democrats 28

District

Democrat

Republican

1

Ed Gogek

Jan Manolis

Noel Campbell (I)

David Stringer (I)

2

Rosanna Gabaldon (I)

Daniel Hernandez Jr. (I)

John Ackerley

Anthony Sizer

3

Andres Cano

Alma Hernandez

Beryl Baker (GRN)

Rep: No candidate

4

Charlene Fernandez (I)

Geraldine Peten (I)

Rep: No candidate

GRN: Sara Mae Williams

5 Mary Robinson Regina Cobb (I)

Leo Biasiucci

6

Felicia French

Bobby Tyler

Bob Thorpe (I)

Walter Blackman

7

Arlando Teller

Myron Tsosie Doyel Shamley

8

Carmen Casillas

Linda Gross

David Cook (I)

T.J. Shope (I)

9

Randall Friese (I)

Pamela Powers Hannley (I) Ana Henderson

10

Kirsten Engel (I)

Domingo Degrazia (flipped) Todd Clodfelter (I)

11

Hollace Lyon

Marcela Quiroz

Mark Finchem (I)

Bret Roberts

12

Joe Bisaccia

Lynsey Robinson

Travis Grantham (I)

Warren Petersen

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13 Thomas Tzitzura Tim Dunn (I)

Joanne Osborne

14

Bob Karp

Shelley Renne-Leon

Becky Nutt (I)

Gail Griffin

15

Julie Gunnigle

Jennifer Samuels

John Allen (I)

Nancy Barto

16 Sharon Stinard

Kelly Townsend (I)

John Fillmore

GRN: Richard Grayson

17

Jennifer Pawlik Jeff Weninger (I)

flipped Nora Ellen

18

Denise Epstein (I)

Jennifer Jermaine

Flipped - Jill Norgaard (I)

Greg Patterson

19

Diego Espinoza (I)

Lorenzo Sierra No candidate

20

Hazel Chandler

Christopher Gilfillan

Anthony Kern (I)

Shawnna Bolick

21

Bradley Hughes

Gilbert Romero

Kevin Payne (I)

Tony Rivero (I)

22

Valerie Harris

Teri Sarmiento

Ben Toma (I)

Frank Carroll

23 Eric Kurland Jay Lawrence (I)

John Kavanagh

24

Jennifer Longdon

Amish Shah David Alger Sr.

25 Johnny Martin Russell Bowers (I)

Michelle Udall (I)

26

Isela Blanc (I)

Athena Salman (I) Raymond Speakman

27

Reginald Bolding (I)

Diego Rodriguez No candidate

28

Kelli Butler (I)

Aaron Lieberman

Flipped Maria Syms (I)

Kathy Petsas

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29

Richard Andrade (I)

Cesar Chavez (I) No candidate

30

Robert Meza

Raquel Teran Gary Spears

Notes • An (I) denotes an incumbent.

Valley Unitarian Universalist Congregation – Senior Minister, Rev. Dr. Andy Burnette; Music Minister, Rev. Kellie Walker; Director of Faith Formation, Marci

Beaudoin; Administrator, Sue Ringler. Located: 6400 W. Del Rio Drive, Chandler, AZ 480 899 4249

www.vuu.org For previous copies of the Arizona Legislative Alert go to http://www.vuu.org/legislative-

advocacy/ VUU holds services each Sunday at 10:30. On October 14, VUU will go to TWO Services, one at 9:15 and one at 11:30.

Both will be the same service, same format, sermon, music etc. You are welcome here.

Unitarian Universalist Justice Arizona Network -- Executive Director Rev. Lisa

McDaniel-Hutchings; Policy Coordinator, Anne L. Schneider. Board Members, UUJAZ: Sharon Travis, Liz Swan

(Chair),Rev. Matthew Crary, Bobbi Bollinger. www.uujaz.org.