2016 Course Syllabus

Global Sustainability and Public Policy

A Primer

Professor Melinda Kimble and Professor Stephanie Kinney

This course considers the interaction of economics, energy, and environmental (E3) issues in the context of sustainability and public policy choices. It offers a brief examination of the drivers of change such as population, technology and globalization. Looking at the economy, we explore how markets work and why market failures occur. We also look at relevant international legal frameworks and national governance systems and how all of the above are affecting major ecosystems -- terrestrial, aqueous and atmospheric--with a focus on selected policy issues related to each.

Sustainability has become central to several new UN goal-setting agreements that expand international development priorities and underpin the 2030 Development Agenda. For the first time, this Agenda incorporates all three dimensions of sustainable development – economic, social, and environmental – and calls on both developed and developing countries to identify and implement the wisest policy responses to the challenge of human development, economic prosperity and social progress.

Emphasis will not be on “what” to think but rather, in a short-term world, “how” to think about, formulate and advance longer-term responses to complex, rapidly evolving, multidimensional issues.

Course requirements:

Class Texts and Readings:

The required text for this class will be Sustainability: A History, Jeremy L. Caradonna, Oxford University Press, 2014. .) (We will highlight key chapters within each class, but a working knowledge of the entire text will improve your understanding of the cross-linkages among issues.)

Students can purchase the Caradonna text through Amazon or the bookstore or download it from the Syracuse Library. Everyone should read the Introduction and opening chapter by the first time the course meets.

We will also use selected readings from other texts and current articles. Most of these readings are referenced below and all will be posted on the Syracuse University electronic blackboard a week before each class.

Useful Supplemental Information and References:

Sustainability Glossary and Policy Thinking Tool. We will hand these out at the first class session.

List of Selected Environmental Treaties: U.S. Department of State. UN Multilateral Environmental Agreements: http://informea.org/treaties . Oxford Dictionary of Environment and Conservation, 2nd Edition, by Chris

Park and Michael Allaby, Oxford University Press, 2013 (This is a useful reference for newcomers to environmental and sustainability issues and lingo.)

Class attendance and participation: (25%)

Full attendance is required. If an absence is unavoidable, please contact us and we will give you a make-up assignment. No more than one absence is permitted during the term.

Required readings form the basis of class discussion, so your participation and contribution to the class weigh heavily. Each student will lead at least one class discussion on required readings during the term. Each member of the class should bring a relevant news article to share in class each week.

Policy Thinking Tool (PTT) Exercise: (15%)

The policy thinking tool is a matrix or checklist for analyzing (thinking about) policy initiatives or proposals. The Tool is designed to systematize and deepen critical thinking in preparation for policy design, advocacy, critique or implementation. Your first exercise will be a highly directed analysis of a current issue using the tool. You will need to research the issue from the standpoint of PTT factors. This exercise is due Sept. 27.

Treaty paper: (20%)

You will prepare a one to two-page directed analysis of an MEA of your choice from a list to be provided. The paper is due Oct. 11.

Mid-Term Policy Paper: (20%)

You will prepare a 5-6 page policy recommendation paper, using the PTT to help shape your recommendation. This paper is due Oct. 25.

Class Group Presentations: (15%)

The group presentation will focus on the Chesapeake Bay. The exercise is due on November 1 or 8, depending on guest speaker schedules.

Personal Carbon Footprint Calculation: (10%)

This concept will be introduced in class and we will suggest a calculator to help you prepare it. This quick exercise is due November 29.

Final Exam: (20%)

This take-home exam will test your grasp of key concepts and their applicability to selected issues or debates. The exam is due December 6.

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I. INTRODUCTIONS (Aug. 30) The first class will focus on getting to know one another, reviewing the syllabus and class requirements and responsibilities. We will explore basic definitions and context for the course and identify key interests and themes as they relate to the structure of the seminar and address the following questions. Key Questions:

1) What is the classic definition of sustainable development?2) Why/How did this concept arise during the 60s/70s? 3) Principle one of the Rio Declaration (1992) is “Human beings are at the

center of concerns for sustainable development.” What does this imply? 4) What happened between 1960 and 1990 (one generation) that shifted

conventional thinking? 5) What is sustainability today and who defines it?6) What are 5 axioms of sustainability?7) What are the 4 principles of the sustainability movement?

Required Reading:

Sustainability: A History, Jeremy L. Caradonna, Oxford, 2015. Introduction, Chapter 1 and 2. (Aug. 30) You should aim to finish the book by no later than Oct. 18.

II. FORCES DRIVING SUSTAINABILITY CONCERNS (Sept. 6-Oct.18)

A. POPULATION (Sept. 6)

The dominance of the human species and its growing requirements – far beyond basic human needs –puts pressures on the earth’s ecosystems that sustain both humanity and the planet itself. As modern and modernizing societies, such as the U.S., Japan and China, continue to raise expectations as their existent populations also age dramatically, less developed societies confront the challenges of a “youth bulge.” Are demographic mega-trends destiny?

In October, Ecuador will host the decennial UN Conference on Human Settlements, which will focus on urbanization and population growth. The UN conference may add to the architecture the international community is developing to promote sustainability

Bring your copy of the Policy Thinking Tool to class as you will need it!

Key Questions:1) How has world population increased since 1900, 1945, 1990, 2010? 2) What are the current population mega-trends?3) What are the factors that have enabled this increase? 4) Can you identify one or more natural resources that have been impacted by this

increase and where the impact(s) are most visible?5) How does urbanism interact with sustainability?6) What was the Paul Ehrlich/Julian Simon bet and who won and why? 7) How does science solve problems? How does “politics” solve problems?8) Do “solutions” generate new problems? Can you think of examples of

“unintended consequences?”9) Why have we given you the Policy Thinking Tool (PTT)?10) Given current trends, how will demographics redefine your world, the US

and the world? Are demographics destiny?

Required reading:

Sustainability: A History, Jeremy L. Caradonna, Oxford, 2015. Chapters 2 and 3 (Sept. 6)

“The New Population Bomb: Four Megatrends That Will Shape the Future,” Jack Goldstone, Foreign Affairs , Jan-Feb 2010. (Sept 6) (Be able to name the four megatrends and come with concrete examples of each.)

OPTIONAL BUT COMPELLING & HIGHLY RECOMMENDED:

“China’s Twilight Years,” Howard W. French, The Atlantic, June 2016 http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/06/chinas-twilight-years/480768/ (Sept.6)

“This Population Boom (in Africa) Offers Promise and Peril,” David Pilling, Financial Times, July 7, 2016 (Sept. 6)

“London and Paris are leading the change to shape the 21st century”, Letter to FT editor from the Mayors of London & Paris, June 27. 2016 (Sept. 6)

“America’s Leading Creative Class Cities in 2015,’ Richard Florida, The Atlantic Magazine, April 20, 2015 (Sept. 6) http://www.citylab.com/work/2015/04/americas-leading-creative-class-cities-in-2015/390852/

“Introduction” and “Betting the Future of the Planet,” The Bet, Paul Sabin, Yale University Press, 2013, pp. 1-9 and 217-227. (Sept. 6)

B. ECONOMICS & COMPLEXITY (Sept. 13-20)

1. Externalities and Ecological Economics (Sept. 13)

We follow with a discussion of the evolution of global economic thinking and an exploration of why economics and environmental policy are linked.

Globalization, trade, finance and technology have dominated more recent history and economic development, expanding middle class lifestyles to virtually every continent. Yet, the benefits of economic growth have also resulted in costs to the environment and its eco-systems as markets fail to take into account the adverse impacts (or externalities) of industrialization.

Two new approaches to economic thought – ecological economics and complexity theory – try to address the challenges created by growing populations that consume natural resources and destabilize complex eco-systems at an every faster pace. These approaches have been essential to developing the concept of sustainable development.

Key Questions:1) What has been the role of economics in shaping the modern world?2) How have natural resources underpinned economic growth and/or political

power?

3) What’s the connection between economics and population? 4) Why does Adam Smith still matter? 5) What key concepts define 20th century economic thinking?6) What does the neo-classic economic system look like? 7) What are externalities? 8) How can we account for “externalities” – or not? 9) How do quarterly market reports interact with the idea of sustainability and

“externalities?” 10) How can we know we are measuring the right things?

Required readings: Watch this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?

v=NdbbcO35arw   (Sept.-13) Ecological Economics: Principles and Applications , 2nd Ed., Herman E.

Daily and Joshua Farley, Island Press, 2011, Chaps. 1 &2 (Sept. 13) Sustainability: A History, Jeremy L. Caradonna, Oxford, 2015. Chapters 3

and 4 (Sept. 13) “(Mis)leading Indicators,” Zachary Karabell, Foreign Affairs, Mar-Apr

2014, (Sept 13) “Stop Picking on the GDP,” Robert Samuelson, Washington Post, May

15, 2016

2. ECONOMICS & COMPLEX ECO-SYSTEMS (Sept.20)

As our understanding of complex systems evolved, we began to understand that the “linear” concepts that initially shaped our understanding of the planet and economics were insufficient to explain reality. In fact, external pressures on systems – biological, chemical and physical – led to adaptations that aided survival and empowered change.

Key Questions: 1) What is an ecosystem?2) What services do ecosystems provide?3) How are these services accounted for in the economy?4) What is complexity and why does it matter? How does something “complex”

differ from something “complicated? 5) What is the Santa Fe Institute and how has it challenged and changed

intellectual mainstream?

Required Readings:

Watch this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Y8-IzP01lw Nicolas Perony: Puppies! Now that I've got your attention, complexity theory

Sustainability: A History, Jeremy L. Caradonna, Oxford, 2015. Chapters. 4-5 (Sept. 20)

Ecological Economics: Principles and Applications , 2nd Ed., Herman E. Daily and Joshua Farley, Island Press, 2011, Chap. 3 (Sept. 20)

Complexity:The Emerging Science at the Edge of Order and Chaos , M. Mitchell Waldrop, Simon and Schuster, 1992, “Visions of the Whole,” pp.9-13; “Work in Progess,” pp. 324-359 (Sept. 20)

Is Sustainability Still Possible?, Worldwatch Institute, 2013, Chap. 3, “Defining a Safe and Just Space for Humanity,” Kate Raworth, pp. 28-38 (Sept 20)

OPTIONAL:

Is Sustainability Still Possible? Worldwatch Institute, 2013, Chap. 2 “Respecting Planetary Boundaries and Reconnecting to the Biosphere,” Carl Folke, pp.19-27. (Sept 20),

WATCH THIS VIDEO: “Let the Environment Guide our Development” Johan Rockstrom, www.ted.com/talks/Johan_Rockstrom_let_the_environment_guide_our_development

C. ENERGY (Sept. 27 - Oct. 4)

PTT EXERCISE DUE SEPT. 27 Human civilization has depended on the continuous development and exploitation of energy – from fire, animals, rivers, human beings, and the riches of fossil fuels. This last source of energy has enabled the modern world. This energy transformation has provided the Western world with living standards beyond the imagination of human beings in 1900, but this gain has come with consequences, or “externalities,” that now underlie advocacy for new policy approaches and behavior change based on innovation and opportunities to reshape the way we think about energy. There will be a guest speaker on Sept. 27.

Key Questions: 1) What has fossil fuel use made possible—how and why? 2) Why has the United States been so important in the century long shift to fossil

fuels? What do WTI and Brent refer to?3) Can you identify unaccounted costs or externalities of fossil fuel use—

economically, politically, socially, technologically, ecologically? 4) What externalities do alternative fuels have?5) What are the implications of projected fossil fuel use?6) What are possible ways to reduce such use and/or its impacts?7) Can countries with limited access to modern energy technologies and services

and cheap supplies develop?8) Can alternative energy reduce modern society’s dependence on fossil fuel?

What is the role for renewables?9) What information and analysis can you trust to provide a level of objectivity?10) If national interests drive foreign policy and international treaty law, when it

comes to controlling CO2 emissions, what are the implications for the US, EU, Japan, India, Russia, China, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, France, Germany, Poland, Nigeria, Azerbaijan, and Georgia ?

Required reading:

Sustainability: A History, Jeremy L. Caradonna, Oxford, 2015. Chapters 5-6 (Note: Caradonna integrates the rise of political awareness of energy’s relevance to sustainability throughout his text.)

“The Planetary Era,” Diane Dumanoski, The End of the Long Summer, 2009, Chapter 2, pp. 11-32 (Sept. 27)

“Energy as Master Resource,” Eric Zencey , Is Sustainability Still Possible? Worldwatch Institute, Island Press, 2013. Chap. 7, pp. 73-83 (Sept. 27)

“Fossil Fuel Power Plants will be Stranded,” Martin Wolf, Financial Times, April 6, 2016 (Oct. 4)

Is Sustainability Still Possible? Worldwatch Institute, Island Press, “Renewable Energy’s Natural Resource Impacts,” Shakuntala Makhijani and Alexander Ochs, Chapture. 8 , 2013. pp. 84-98 (Oct. 4)

“From Black to Green,” by Ed Crooks and Kiran Stacey, Financial Times Big Read, Energy, June 29, 2016 (OCT. 4)

III. Transnational Concerns & International Legal Frameworks (Oct.11)TREATY PAPER DUE OCT. 11

Early in the 20th century, conservation concerns led to legislative “solutions,” first at the national level and eventually at the international level. Inspired by the success of early international conservation treaties and the transnational character of many environmental concerns starting in the 1970’s, the United Nations -- central to the “rules based international order” of the era-- soon took the lead in negotiating an extensive international legal framework to address transnational environmental issues. This legal framework addresses everything from ocean and seabed issues, ozone depletion, and climate change to desertification, biodiversity, the transport of hazardous wastes, the control of toxic chemicals and more.

The purpose of this section is to familiarize you with the scope and character of the international environmental legal framework, the nature of international treaty making and what to look for and how to read treaties themselves. Key to this section is grasping the challenges posed by dramatic national differences and significant contrasts in legal traditions and governance systems, especially between the US and the rest of the world. Your treaty papers will enrich class discussion.

Key questions: 1) Why did Multilateral Environmental Agreements (MEAs) become an

instrument of choice for the international community? (Axelrod Chapters 1-3)2) How do MEAs impact your lives and how do they mesh with our political/legal

environment?3) What is the difference between an MEA and an international action plan?4) How do MEAs impact national policies and what challenges are involved?5) Who are the stakeholders in these concepts and/or policies and how has this

changed since the 1970”s? (Axelrod, Chapter 2) 6) How have the MEAs raised the profile of the UN? Why is sustainability central

to the UN’s 2030 Agenda? (Caradonna)Required Reading: Sustainability: A History , Jeremy L. Caradonna, Oxford, 2015. Chapter 5.

You should have finished reading this text by now. The Global Environment: Institutions, Law, and Policy, 4 th Ed. , Edited by

Regina S. Axelrod and Stacy D. VanDeveer, Sage, 2015.Chapters 1-3. pp. 1-65. This material will be referenced throughout the course so start reading it early as well.

IV. TERRESTRIAL ECOSYSTEMS:AGRICULTURE, LANDSCAPES, FOOD AND POLLUTION (Oct 18-25)

MID-TERM IS DUE OCT. 11

As humans organized into social groups, they impacted natural ecosystems – both flora and fauna in different ways. The emergence of settled agriculture profoundly changed human society and the natural world and ultimately gave rise to urban centers and high civilizations. Societies that survived organized information and transmitted it inter-generationally and led to the emergence of new, complex systems that promoted and rewarded learning and innovation.

Emerging 20th century industrial technology transformed U.S. agriculture. Farmers grasped the potential of mass production – growing a few key crops and marketing their production globally. As World War I and the Russian revolution dramatically spurred demand for American grains, the American response ultimately led to an environmental catastrophe known as “The Dustbowl.”

We’ll use the Dustbowl as a case study for “cause” and “consequences.” U.S. agriculture has helped feed the world, but it is also evident that this industrialized approach has many environmental consequences – posing new challenges for sustainability. In addition, the U.S. agricultural model has prompted other countries (e.g. Brazil, Argentina, China, Thailand, and others) to follow this example – with limited consideration of unintended consequences.

Key questions:

1) How did agriculture change landscapes, societies?2) What were and are the essential factors for productive agriculture?3) What changes were beneficial? What changes were negative?4) What lessons did the U.S. learn from the experience of the Dust Bowl?5) Identify the pollution problems created by traditional and industrial agriculture. 6) Where does the pollution go? 7) Is it feasible to consider a return to more environmentally sound (“sustainable”)

farming practices? 8) What are the costs? What are the consequences? 9) What are the conditions needed for success? How do we measure success?10) If so, what policies are needed? Who redefines priorities and how?

Required readings:

Sustainability: A History , Jeremy L. Caradonna, Oxford, 2015. Chpt.6 (Oct. 18)

Plows, Plagues and Petroleum , William F. Ruddiman, Princeton University Press, 2010, Chap. 7, Early Agriculture and Civilization,” pp. 65-75 (Oct 18)

Green Planet Blues , 4th Ed, Ken Conca and Geoffrey D. Dabelko, Westview 2010, Chap. 3, “The Tragedy of the Commons,” Garret Hardin. (An environmental classic.) (Oct. 18)

Required Video : Lessons Learned from the Dust Bowl https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o7Uwg8BT6qQ (Oct. 18) OPTIONAL AND RECOMMENDED: “Surviving the Dust Bowl” An intense description of what happened. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fJMidfqiNio or the shorter https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=guTek7ipD4U

Fertilize the World” Dan Charles, National Geographic, May 2013 pp. 94-111 (Oct 25)

OPTIONAL:

“Water Wars,” Victor Mallet, Financial Times, April 14, 2016 (A third of India’s states are suffering droughts after two poor monsoon seasons and farmers have been worst affected.)

An Andean Dustbowl Story: Kinney power point and http://glacierhub.org/2016/01/28/climate-refugees-from-the-peruvian-andes/

V. THE GLOBAL WATER CYCLE:FRESHWATER AND MARINEECOSYSTEMS (Nov. 1 -8)

GROUP CLASS PRESENTATIONS DUE THIS SECTION All the freshwater that ever existed is already on earth, and available freshwater comprises less than 3% of the earth’s water supply; the rest is contained in oceans and ice. Water is recycled through a global cycle that incorporates plant photosynthesis, filter processes, the ebb and flow of wind, rivers, and ocean currents.

The availability of water supported the rise of agriculture and early civilizations, and the loss of water has contributed to societal collapse. Aqueous ecosystems

throughout the world provide many benefits beyond water itself. As a result, many legal regimes and institutions have been created to manage this boundary-flaunting resource. We will look at an example close to home—the Chesapeake Bay—to understand the interaction between agriculture and water ecosystems and their quality.

Oceans represent the largest (and least known and understood) network of aqueous ecosystems on the planet. The water cycle is inextricably linked to climate and changing temperatures. A growing global middle class poses a threat to fish stocks. Melting sea ice and new access to shipping lanes and natural resources has made both the Arctic and the Antarctic major issues. We will focus part of the oceans discussion on one of the most complex international treaties, the UN Convention on Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), as well as on the issues of ocean acidification, dumping and pollution and their consequences--dead zones and new “dead seas.”

Note: Ambassador David Balton, Deputy Assistant Secretary, Department of State, Bureau of Oceans, Environment, and Science and Ernie Shea, Natural Resources Solutions (a sustainability consultancy), will be guest speakers.

Key questions:

1) What is the interaction between agriculture and aqueous ecosystems?2) What are wetlands and estuaries and why do they matter?3) What is the interaction between these aqueous ecosystems and climate change?4) Who “owns” water and how is it valued?5) What are land based sources of pollution and how are they regulated?6) What is the Law of the Sea, why does it matter and why hasn’t the US joined?7) What is happening to fish stocks and why? How have coastal zone states responded?8) What is the difference between acidification, nitrification, and putrification? 9) What are the most important treaties focused on water?10) What is the Arctic Council and why has it suddenly become so popular?

NOTE: We will have a group presentation project focused on the Chesapeake Bay—the largest estuary in the US. We will examine the ecosystem problems, the governance challenges and the slow progress. Start scanning the Washington Post and the internet for good articles related to the Chesapeake Bay early!

REQUIRED READINGS: Is Sustainability Still Possible?, Worldwatch Institute, 2013, Chap. 5

“Sustaining Freshwater and Its Dependents,” Sandra Postel, 51-62 (Nov. 1 ) “6 F’s in Anacostia River Report Card,” Hamil R. Harris, Washington Post,

July 1, 2016 (Nov. 1) Compare and Contrast: (Nov. 1)

How Septic Tanks May Imperil this Florida Ecosystem: http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/septic-tanks-may-imperil-florida-ecosystem/

Is Sustainability Still Possible? Worldwatch Institute, Island Press, 2013, Chap. 6 “Sustainable Fisheries and Seas: Preventing Ecological Collapse,” Antonia Sohns and Larry Crowder, pp. 63-72, (Nov. 1)

N.B. Amb. Balton typically provides his own recommended reading.

OPTIONAL: Atlantic-a Vast Ocean of a Million Stories , Simon Winchester, Harper

Press, Chapter 6, “Change and Decay All Around the Sea”, pp.354-378: Rachel Carson’s The Sea Around Us and the collapse of the North Atlantic Cod Story. (Nov 8)

VI. THE ATMOSPHERIC ECOSYSTEM: UNDERSTANDING CLIMATE CHANGE (Nov 29 and Dec 6)

Carbon Footprint due Nov. 29FINAL PAPER DUE DECEMBER 6

The success of the Montreal Protocol on Ozone Depletion in the late 80’s influenced the approach on many subsequent environmental agreements. We will examine the validity of the ozone model for other issues such as climate. Drawing the experience of your professors in the climate negotiations, we will explore the complexities and contradictions inherent in negotiating such an issue as well as the evolution of our understanding of climate change itself.

It is important to understand why the policy response has been slow, in order to understand the change of direction envisioned in the Paris Agreement and what this implies in terms of national action and future international cooperation.

Key questions:

1) When and how were ozone depleting substances brought to public attention and how did the US public react initially and by 1987? What was the European reaction?

2) What contributed to the success of the Montreal Protocol and who drove the process?

3) How were the “Framework Agreements” for ozone and climate different? How did their respective “Protocols” differ?

4) When and how was the issue of climate change brought to public attention and how did the US public react initially and by 1995? How do you assess the public policy environment today and what has changed since the mid-90”s?

5) What was the consequence of modeling the climate process on that of the Montreal Protocol?

6) How would you frame the climate issue and why? Why does “framing” matter?7) Is there an alternative to the UN Climate process? Does every complex

problem have a one size fits all solution?8) What would you do?

Required readings: Sustainability: A History , Jeremy L. Caradonna, Oxford, 2015. Chapter 6-7 “Lessons Learned”, Ozone Diplomacy, Richard Benedict, Harvard University

Press, 1990 (Nov 29) “International Environmental Regimes and the Success of Global Ozone

Policy,” David Leonard Dowie in The Global Environment, 4th ed, Chapter 4, pp. 83-105 (Nov. 29 )

“Ozone Layer on the Mend, …,” Science Magazine, June 2016, www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/06/ozone-layer-mend-thanks-chemical-ban

“Ozone Hole Shows Signs of Shrinking, Scientists Say”, The New York Times, June 30, 2016 www.nytimes.com/.../ ozone - hole - shrinking -montreal- protocol.htm (NOV. 29)

“International Climate Change Policy,” The Global Environment, 4th ed, Chapter 10, Michelle Betsill, pp. 234-54, (Dec 6)

Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change: Anticipating Surprises, Report of the National Research Council of the National Academies, 2012, pp. 1-37 (Dec. 6)

“Climate Change and Displacements,” Michael Renner in Is Sustainability Still Possible? Worldwatch Institute, Island Press, Chapter 31, 2013, pp. 343-352 (DEC. 6)