a plan for economic recovery

8/2/2019 A Plan for Economic Recovery

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A Plan for Economic Recovery.

Draft Copy (d) Feb11

[email protected]


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The IMF/ECB/EU have loaned money to us to cover the costs of our spending. My

proposal would be that the Irish Government would agree to SWAP Euro () notes*1

from the people of Ireland and give them Irish pounds (IR) on a 1:1 ratio with a NO

commission fees. The s that are collected are given back to the IMF/ECB/EU and any

other parties to pay the bills owed (including bank bailouts this could end up being in

the range of 200bn250bn). These STAND-IN notes would be exclusive to Ireland

and the IRs can then be used to buy products or services as normal and shops and

businesses will accept both currencies. It would leave Ireland with a zero

international debt - clean slate which presumably would be a first for any country,

and with careful management would pull the country out of the recession at its own

speed.

So, briefly HOW WOULD IT WORK?

EVERYDAY PURCHASING

If you bought an item worth 10 and paid for it by 20 the change you would get would

be IR10. You see an item in another shop for 5, you pay for it with your IR10 and

you get IR5 change. All pricing would remain in s

EU TOURISTS

Tourists from the EU can come to Ireland and spend their s. When they are going back

to their country they would simply convert any change that they have accumulated, on

a NO commission basis (e.g. IR5 would become 5)

TOURISTS OUTSIDE the EU

Tourists travelling from outside the EU to Ireland would simply use the normal Bureau

de Change in the way they presently do to convert their money into s. This could then

be spent as above with a simple NO commission transaction to convert their IRs to s

prior to departure.

HOLIDAYING ABROAD

IR would be exchanged to on a NO commission 1:1 ratio at departure points or at

your nearest bank.

IMPORTS

Anybody purchasing items from outside Ireland would simply convert their IR to free

of charge and either conduct business as normal or transfer it to another currency

through the regular Bureau de Change.

EXPORTS

People who are involved with exporting that are paid in s would either spend the s

and get IR change or if payment made into a Bank Account this would remain as IRs.

Money coming into the State from another Country would be converted to s as per the

current Bureau de Change regulations.


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BUSINESSES

All commercial business will accept both currencies, and because it is on a 1:1 ratio

there will be no problem with conversion rates. All prices will remain in current euro

and cent format.

BANKING

Banks would take the s out of the system. This would be used for paying any further

money owed to the EU/IMF or any other debtors of the state. If the debt is still clear,

then the s would become locked into the system as before. If anybody was conducting

a cross border transaction the Bank would automatically exchange IR into with NO

fee. Banks would still keep their current commission rates transferring from to other

currencies.


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AND SOME QUESTIONS YOU MIGHT NEED ANSWERS FOR...

Is it permanent?

No. Once the economy starts to grow the IR can be phased out at any time and

in any quantity on the basis that for every 5 received that IR5 is taken out ofthe system.

How much would it save?

As soon as implemented it would clear*1 any current debt, would cease any

future ECB/IMF/EU tranches and the interest rate on that money. The savings

are immense, as it is estimated that INTEREST alone on the current EU/IMF

bailout fund will be ~10bn in 2013 that we will all HAVE to pay to save

paying this amount would be of great benefit to the State.

What if the EU says youre printing money?

1. They are OUR notes, and cannot be used in any other country (unlike the UKsSTG)

2. When we gave up the IEP (punts) these were all converted over to ; the swere not given out free, therefore if the Irish State SWAPPED these on a 1:1

basis it is not printing money. (5 is worth 5 etc.)

3. There is a MAJOR difference between SWAPPING (replacing like with like) andPRINTING (adding)

What is the difference between the preeuro Irish punts (IEP) and Irish pounds (IR)?

The Irish punt (IEP) was our old currency which was traded against the for a

rate of IEP0.79p

Irish pounds (IR) remain equal to the value of the but can only be used in

Ireland. They cannot be taken out of the country but can be converted into for

no fee.

Where would we get the s from to swap?

It would be done by drawing down State seized money first (C.A.B etc.), then

from the everyday retail side ,and depending on the balance of a % of totalsavings per person across the board (e.g. a total of 2% of everyones savings).

The total sum swapped will be EQUAL to the outstanding debt. This will achieve

a fairer result for those less well off. No money would be taken out of the

pension pot as this would be used for its original purpose or in a worst case

scenario as a rainy day fund.

Almost everybody has savings. Because these would be TEMPORARILY

SWAPPED 1:1 you will still have the same amount of savings. If you leave them

alone in an account which most people do it wont make the slightest

difference (you wont even notice). However when you take any savings out of

your account and get IRs you can use these to purchase anything in Ireland, or

transfer these to s for 1:1 for anything outside Ireland.


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Is there more risk involved with this compared to exchanging from euro to stg/dollar

etc?

Some people are currently transferring savings from to stg and other foreign

currencies. There are two reasons why this shouldnt be done. 1) The IR will

remain on a 1:1 ratio with the . 2) Should the collapse, it would destabiliseother listed currencies and having the IR already in circulation could mean that

anybody with these would have a currency which would be ready to get a value

put on it straight away. Because we would now have a country that is

international debt free the markets/traders should look on us in a very

favourable light.

Would it affect the European Union?

Because the rate of the notes would be fixed at 1:1 in relation to the euro there

should be no damaging effect. The notes could not be used outside Ireland and

therefore would not affect other countries. There would be more benefits to it

because the s we give back will be CASH that can be used to help other

countries in the EU.

Would it destabilise the EU?

No, because any s that we pay back are currently owed and any money that is

currently needed through the ECB/IMF/EU bailout will have to be printed by the

ECB. This would be ADDITIONAL money to the EU Monitory system which is

already under severe pressure.

Would it mean Ireland getting out of the EU?

No. Everything would remain as is. It is NOT Ireland giving the EU the finger, it is

Ireland helping the EU in the recovery of the debt that has landed on our

shoulders, which is partially the fault of the ECB.

How much will it cost?

It will cost the price of paper, ink and labour. While the initial cost will be into

the ms, when we repay our debt (currently heading to 126bn and possibly up

to 250bn) to the ECB/IMF/EU and any others there will be savings of billions

from year one on the current intended interest rate alone.

Are we breaking any EU rules?

The new notes would remain 1:1 with the , and our nearest European

neighbours in England have their own currency, which is legal tender and which

the EU have no problems with them using.

During the Icelandic crisis, which was similar to ours (their banks were closed

for a few days while they were in receivership), they used food vouchers to

enable the population to buy food.


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While Ireland is currently and for the foreseeable future experiencing a National

crisis akin to a country at war, the Government should do its utmost to ensure

that the crisis is brought to a resolution in any way it can, by its own means, for

the good of the State and its citizens and as soon as possible.

Would it affect the stockexchange?

The currency would not be listed as a currency if you wanted to find out what it

is worth abroad you would simply go by the current exchange rate.

Will we run out of s?

So long as export and tourism markets are increased and current spending is

brought under control we should never run out. This plan will only work

properly with proper spending cuts (public sector pay & system is reformed,

numbers taken out of the upper echelons of the civil service, pensions cut and

perks are dropped, quangos abolished). In time and with growth we can starttaking the IRs back out of the system, these would be destroyed.

This plan will NOT work is if outgoings EXCEED income although the other

possibilities of outgoings & income remaining equal or where outgoings are

less than income would both bring a favourable result. There would also be a

risk if there was mass exodus of funds (s), which is the same scenario we face

at present and at that stage doesnt make a difference if we are using s or IRs.

Where would the debt go?

The debt owed to others would be wiped out; however it would mean thatIrelands debt would then be concentrated IN Ireland (at a 0% interest fee), and

it would be up to the government over a period of time to ensure that all the

IRs are taken out of the system and swapped for s. (as Graphic 1 to 11 above)

This compares to the current situation we are experiencing in which the

Debt to others WILL increase, with other Countries setting their own

interest rates.

What other advantages will there be?

The other major advantage of this plan would be that the State could keep anyassets that it has at present, rather than selling them to foreign investors; thus

ensuring that our silverware remains ours.

A worst case scenario

If the government/financial institutions lost control of the amount of s

required for outgoings outside the state it would mean that we would have an

unlisted economy. This would mean that daily trade could be continued, but no

goods/services could be imported. Exports nonreliant on imported products

would remain unaffected. This scenario would be a bit better than one of

sovereign default. However, as the currency is linked to the value of the the

value of the IR would remain the same. If it ever got to the unfortunate stage


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that we have to return to the EU/IMF Bailout, or take the kind offer from the

Irish people in the United States of America it would be for a smaller amount to

cover outgoings.

What if the P.I.G.S. were all on this system?

This would be exclusive to Ireland but it could work for other countries too. If

Portugal, Greece and Spain adopted this system and a person from Ireland

wanted to go to visit, they would simply convert to at the point of exit of the

country and when they reach their destination they would spend their s in the

way listed above. As long as the euro exchange rate never exceeds 1:1 all

Countries could participate. However as a cautionary measure Ireland should be

used as a test case.

How can you help?

If you wouldnt mind spending a different type of note and dont mind acceptingthe new style note then this would be the best help you could give.

Currently each OAP, adult, child and new born would have to pay 28,200 to clear

the national debt [inc NAMA debt]. (21,400 without NAMA debt)

In order to speed up the turnaround time back to s, I would suggest that when

the debt has been paid, the government then readjust current tax and VAT

rates, creates a NEW 4 year business plan and implements a fair emergency

budget as a matter of urgency in order that the current rise in people entering

the poverty threshold is reduced.

Will it work?

Used on its own merits or in conjunction with a Referendum and by using Article

24*2 of the Constitution there would be noreason why this could not work.

Wouldnt it be brilliant to be able to go over to the EU, ask them for our debt bill, ask

what they would give us for a CASH discount and then reverse a convoy of trucks into

the bank complex, unload all their precious s and bring the remaining s home to the

people of Ireland? Savings could be used wisely by the government on establishing

business for the country or by loaning it through the current ECB scheme at the interest

rate charged by our fellows in the EU.

Ive laid out the pros and cons that I can think of, however if you can find ANYTHING

wrong with this please send me a brief email and I will endeavour to correct flaws that

may have been overlooked. The figures in this plan are based on the worst case scenario

in which the bondholders are included at a 100% return on their investment.

The overall figure given to the Bond Holders would be lower by decreasing their share

by a considerable % (possibly up to the same ratio that the average Irish person has lost

through their contribution as shareholders in the same companies).

If you cant find anything wrong with the above then it isnt a dream!


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Feel free to discuss, comment, email, photocopy, redistribute, or make people aware that

there may be an alternate way .

Thanks for taking the time to read this.

a plan for economic recovery

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