How to save $22-32 million in wasteful “legacy” infrastructure capital expenditures:

“Plan B” for Brunswick inspired by

“Plan A” for Auburn

Pem Schaeffer Brunswick

November 4, 2015 (ver:12 noon/Tuesday 3 Nov)

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Bottom Line Takeaways

• Spending $22-32 million on infrastructure improvements to service the needs of 34 Downeaster round trippers per day is outrageous, wasteful, unjustifiable, an abuse of public resources, and entirely avoidable – Brunswick extension generates 6-7% of ridership, and 7-8% of operating revenue;

pro-rata share of annual subsidy is $75,000 per month – Average of 17 R/T riders per train – Memories of MTA and MSHA ‘troubles’ come to mind – On top of $38.5M in capital expenditures to date, total capital project expense for

under 30 miles and less than 10% of ridership will equal capital expense for entire Portland to Boston service of 120 miles that handles more than 90% of ridership demand

• Auburn’s Great Falls Plaza transit evolution suggests a far better, more flexible, more affordable, more capable way to service the Brunswick region, without irreversibly sinking huge sums into extraordinarily wasteful & speculative projects – Brunswick ideally equipped and situated to make it work

Brunswick ideally positioned for immediate action; MLF construction should be suspended while Plan B alternative is fully scoped out; scarce transportation

dollars can be put to far, far better use on critical infrastructure needs.

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Recent Discoveries: Misrepresentation, Waste, and Abuse

• Wildly exaggerated economic benefit projections in funded studies by big city, out of state consultants supposedly expert in “Transit Oriented Development”

• Unanswered questions re: relationship/funding of TrainRiders Northeast

• $70 million plus in taxpayer funds spent on initiating service between Boston and Portland (not including local $)

• $38 million plus in taxpayer funds spent to initiate service between Portland and Brunswick (not including local $)

– Immediate plans to spend $32 million more ($14M for MLF; $8M for Royal Jct Siding; $10M for Portland Wye)

• Total planned expenditure for Brunswick extension ~ $70 million, same as spent on initial Boston to Portland service, to cater to less than 10% of ridership/less than 10% of operating revenue!

• Ill-conceived & misrepresented plans consuming scarce transportation $ needed for burgeoning infrastructure repairs that serve the many, not the few

Takeaway: NNEPRA structural and behavioral model is eerily reminiscent of previous MTA and MSHA scandal circumstances.

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NNEPRA Budget Trends Cause Great Concern (page 11 of http://www.amtrakdowneaster.com/sites/default/files/052615%20%20-%20%20Board%20Materials%20May%2026,%202015.pdf)

• Operating revenue & expense comparisons (FY16 Budget/FY15 Budget):

– Ticket revenue: $8.32M/$8.62M; -3.5%

– Total operating revenues: $9.66M/$9.84M; -1.8%

– Professional services: $102.7K/32.0K; +222%

– Amtrak operations: $13.50M/$11.55M; +17%

– Total capital and operating expenses: $22.58M/$20.62M; +9.5%

• Additional funding required comparisons (FY16 Budget/FY15 Actuals)

– FTA/CMAQ: $3.82M/$1.59M; +140%

– State match: $2.57M/$2.08M; +23.6%

– Total additional funding required: $12.92M/$10.45; +23.6%

Takeaway: Dismal operating profile, unsustainable trend lines, and huge capital project demands evidence reality that passenger rail is not viable

in general, and especially in largely rural Maine. Political force fits are a recipe for disaster.

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Situation Update

• Brunswick Downeaster service: two revenue round trips per day to Portland since inception in December 2012 – Average ridership 34 round trip/day, less than one full motor coach (bus) – Service includes Freeport stop; planned Metro-Bus Freeport/Portland service will reduce

ridership there • NNEPRA ED Quinn states goal is to increase Portland-Brunswick service to 6 round trips per day

(five to Boston) – No objective evidence for increasing service to/from Brunswick – Take on faith: build it and they will come; prior grandiose projections have proven appallingly

inaccurate – Terrible justification for speculating with scarce taxpayer funds

• Brunswick MLF construction just initiated, though appeals to BEP pending, and OPEGA audit about to get underway – $14 million cost, up from initial estimate of $4 million – Rationale: increased round trip service impossible without facility – Service expansion also requires $8.5 million for Royal Junction siding project; funding applied

for via TIGER program; apparently denied • Concord Coach has been serving Brunswick for decades

Takeaway: Brunswick service expansion underway requires $22 million plus in capital infrastructure upgrades (Portland Wye not included; $10M more)

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Projected Post-MLF Operating Premise Is Flawed

– No reason ‘repositioning runs’ operating now at start and end of day could not be revenue runs; 6 am train from PTC to BRK leaves after first train to Boston; 9 pm run to PTC could carry BRK visitors returning home at end of day

– Criss-cross of runs 2 & 3 above impossible without $8M Royal Jct siding

– “Blue train” operates 6 hours/day; should be eliminated in favor of existing/added bus service; could reduce annual operating deficit by $5 million

– Brunswick Facility seriously over-designed; no case where 3 trains would be there at same time; eliminating “Blue train” limits presence to one train set and single bay maintenance need, if any at all

– Eleven years operating in Portland without indoor facility, servicing vast majority of ridership; building massively expensive facility now in Brunswick to service less than 10% of ridership is unwarranted and irresponsible

– What about changes in crew deployment/transport?

– Clip is from July 2014 NNEPRA Presentation to Brunswick Layover Advisory Group (town council)

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Modifying Downeaster Service to Brunswick/Freeport

• Downeaster began running in December 2001

– All train servicing done in Portland since inception

• Service expansion to Freeport/Brunswick began December 2012

– Currently 3 R/T’s per day, one run in each direction is labeled ‘non-revenue’ for PR purposes

– Brunswick averages 34 R/T riders per day, or 17 per R/T; less than one bus-full total

– Freeport averages 10 R/T riders per day, or 5 per R/T

• Scheduled to get Metro-Bus Service to points south

• Recommendation:

– Reduce Brunswick service to one R/T per day; morning run Southbound, evening run Northbound; overnight train set at Brunswick Station with relocated APU set up.

– Operate second R/T per day only if ridership demand evident

– All train maintenance continues at Portland location; shed can be built with reserved Brunswick funds if found necessary

• Proposed expanded bus service more than offsets loss of one train R/T

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Takeaway: Major capital and operating savings possible with no compromise of services to Brunswick/area ridership.

Looking at Successes Nearby

• L/A passenger rail expansion much advocated; $107 to $230 million in capital costs involved

– Recently announced Inter-City bus service between Auburn and Portland provides model for substantial cost savings, and improved service for Brunswick area

• Brunswick is ‘service community’ for Topsham, Bath, and surrounding vicinity

– Both well connected to Brunswick via US 1 and I-295 Bypass connector

Takeaway: It’s obvious that same set of considerations leading to unveiling of Auburn proposal should be applied to and tested for

Brunswick circumstances. Potential savings: $30 million range.

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The Landscape

I-295

Brunswick Station

Rte 1 Bypass/ 196 Connector

Cooks Corner Mall Brunswick

Landing

Merrymeeting Plaza

Bowdoin College

Rte 1 to Bath

Topsham

BEX

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Brunswick Suitability for “Plan B”

• Concord Coach serving Brunswick since well before Downeaster inception

• Physical location close to I-295 and US 1, including bypass, and Topsham and Bath population centers, is ideal for Park and Ride operation as now getting under way in Auburn

• Three immediately ‘available’ locations, each with vacant space for “Station” operation:

– Merrymeeting Plaza: high vacancy rate, ample parking, ready access

– Cooks Corner Mall: high vacancy rate, ample parking, ready access

– Brunswick Landing: ample parking, ready access, tie in to General Aviation airport operation. Multi-modal attraction.

• Tie-in to Brunswick Explorer hourly loops for feeder connection is perfect option

• Possible route: depart Park & Ride; Bowdoin College; Brunswick Station

– Head south either via Exit 28, or Exit 31

Takeaway: To all but most rabid passenger rail zealots, this seems like a “no-brainer.”

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Current Concord Coach Coastal Route Service

Takeaway: Near perfect, existing alternate to the under-used third Amtrak train set; should save millions in

Amtrak operations costs (More than $13.5M for FY 16)

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Park & Ride Location Candidates

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Feeder Service Ready to Go

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Requested Actions

• Immediately suspend all construction related activity on Brunswick Layover Facility

– Rigorously identify funding amounts and location; place hold orders

– BEP Appeal Process yet to play out; OPEGA audit barely underway

• Convene cognizant/relevant parties to examine the circumstances and propose rapid response approach

– MDOT; MRRA; Concord Coach (others?); Brunswick TM; Governor’s Office

– Assign point person

• Draft quick reaction plan; prepare ROM pricing

– Structure RFP (see Auburn?)

– Socialize the idea?

Takeaway: This alternative is simply too obvious and too beneficial to ignore; especially in view of urgent road/bridge repair needs.

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Addendum: NNEPRA Budgetary “Highlights”

http://www.amtrakdowneaster.com/sites/default/files/052615%20%20-%20%20Board%20Materials%20May%2026,%202015.pdf 15

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Projected Operating Budget FY 2016

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