a note on robocalls part ii
TRANSCRIPT
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A Note on Robocalls in the 2011 Federal Election, Part II
Contents
Summary ..................................................................................................................................................2
Riding Selection Algorithm .....................................................................................................................3Algorithmic Selection of Non-Robocall Ridings ....................................................................................4
Manitoba ..............................................................................................................................................4
Riding #1: Saint Boniface ...............................................................................................................4
Riding #2: Winnipeg South Centre .................................................................................................5 Northern Ontario .................................................................................................................................6
Riding #3: Sudbury .........................................................................................................................6
Nova Scotia ..........................................................................................................................................7Riding #4: SydneyVictoria ............................................................................................................7
PEI .......................................................................................................................................................8
Riding #5: Egmont ..........................................................................................................................8Ontario (2011 version) ........................................................................................................................9
Ridings #6-23: CPC ridings in Southern Ontario .........................................................................10Ridings #24-25: LPC ridings in Southern Ontario .......................................................................11Ridings #26-27: NDP ridings in Southern Ontario ......................................................................11
Ontario (2008 version) ......................................................................................................................12
Ridings #6-18: CPC ridings in Southern Ontario .........................................................................13
Ridings #19-25: LPC ridings in Southern Ontario .......................................................................14Ridings #26-27: NDP ridings in Southern Ontario ......................................................................15
Regression Results .................................................................................................................................16
Appendix ................................................................................................................................................19Table 1: Original 27 Ridings (Robocalls) .........................................................................................19
Table 2: Another 25 Robocall Ridings (from Extended List) ......................................................20
Table 3A: All Remaining Ridings in Manitoba 21
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Table 3A: All Remaining Ridings in Manitoba 21
Summary
This note briefly outlines an algorithm that can be used to select an alternative set of non-robocallridings for the model estimated in myprevious note (an exercise suggested by Prof. Mike Moffatt).To ensure the algorithm is as simple and clear as possible, it relies only on:
1. Geography (in a broad sense, i.e., whether the riding is in the same province/region; notproximity/adjacency, which is potentially more subjective/intuitive); and,
2. Political history (i.e., a comparison of winning parties and margins of victory, in either 2008
or 2011).
I selected two new sets of non-robocall ridings algorithmically, first using 2011 election results, then
2008 results (as suggested by Prof. Moffatt).1 The former (2011) yields a set of 27 non-robocallridings that includes 9 new ridings (that were not included in my original regression), while the latter
(2008) yields a set that includes 13 new ridings.
As such, following the algorithm has changed between one third and one half of my non-robocallriding control group. This was to be expected, as it does not take into account riding demographics
or geography/proximity at the micro level, as I did when I started this exercise.
However, these changes do not affect the results of the experiment. In fact, the coefficient for the
non-robocall interaction variable is (once again) greater than the one for the robocall interaction
variable (see Table 7-4), provided ridings are selected based on their similarities in terms of the 2008election results (again, as suggested by Prof. Moffatt). And once again, this is in spite of the fact
that, via the algorithm, I have replaced half of the non-robocall ridings in the control group with
other, similar ridings.
Given the selection method, these new ridings are similar in terms of political history (i.e., 2008
election winner and margin of victory) and region (i.e., the same province, or northern/southern
i f O t i ) t th 27 idi l t d b P f K l b f b ll ll ti
http://www.sfu.ca/~akessler/wp/robocalls.pdfhttp://www.scribd.com/doc/85789442/A-Note-on-Robocallshttps://twitter.com/#!/MikePMoffatt/status/181413760228016129https://twitter.com/#!/MikePMoffatt/status/181414164516978688https://twitter.com/#!/MikePMoffatt/status/181414164516978688http://www.sfu.ca/~akessler/wp/robocalls.pdfhttp://www.scribd.com/doc/85789442/A-Note-on-Robocallshttps://twitter.com/#!/MikePMoffatt/status/181413760228016129https://twitter.com/#!/MikePMoffatt/status/181414164516978688https://twitter.com/#!/MikePMoffatt/status/181414164516978688 -
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Riding Selection Algorithm
Firstly, from the list of 308 federal ridings in Canada, eliminate all ridings that:
a. Are in provinces that are not included in the original list of 27 ridings, including all ridings
in Quebec (75), British Columbia (36), Alberta (28), Saskatchewan (14), New Brunswick
(10), Newfoundland and Labrador (7), and the North (3).(This eliminates 173 ridings; 135 remain.)
b. Are included in either the original list of 27 ridings, or the extended list of 72 ridings
where reports of robocalls later emerged (76 ridings total, including 40 in SouthernOntario, 4 in Manitoba, 4 in Northern Ontario, 3 in Nova Scotia, and 1 in PEI).
(This eliminates 52 additional ridings2; 83 remain.)
c. Have an atypical political history. There are five of these; in addition to the two Prof.
Kessler identified,
Portneuf-Jacques Cartier (no CPC candidate; supported Andr Arthur); and,
Saanich Gulf-Islands, BC (robocall reports in 2008)
Also eliminate:
Central Nova, NS (no LPC candidate in 2008; supported Elizabeth May);
CumberlandColchesterMusquodoboit Valley, NS (independent Conservative
candidate Bill Casey in 2008);
Simcoe Grey, ON (independent Conservative candidate Helena Guergis in
2011).
(This eliminates 2 additional ridings3
; 81 remain.)
For each of the 27 original (robocall) ridings in Prof. Kesslers working paper,
http://www.sfu.ca/~akessler/wp/robocalls.pdfhttp://www.sfu.ca/~akessler/wp/robocalls.pdfhttp://www.sfu.ca/~akessler/wp/robocalls.pdf -
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Algorithmic Selection of Non-Robocall Ridings
Manitoba
Riding #1: Saint Boniface
In 2011, the closest margin of victory for the CPC is in KildonanSt. Paul.6
Robocall Riding IncumbentWinning
Party
Margin of
Victory
2nd
Place
Saint Boniface CPC CPC 19.5 LPC
Other RidingsDifference from
Saint Boniface
Kildonan--St. Paul CPC CPC 28.1 8.6 NDP
Dauphin--Swan River--Marquette CPC CPC 37 17.5 NDP
Charleswood--St. James--Assiniboia CPC CPC 37.5 18 NDP
Elmwood--Transcona NDP CPC 0.9 18.6 NDP
Brandon--Souris CPC CPC 38.5 19 NDP
Selkirk--Interlake CPC CPC 38.7 19.2 NDP
Provencher CPC CPC 52.7 33.2 NDPPortage--Lisgar CPC CPC 66.2 46.7 NDP
Winnipeg North LPC LPC 0.2 NDP
Churchill NDP NDP 24.9 CPC
2011 Election Results
The choice is the same for the 2008 results:
Robocall Riding IncumbentWinning
Party
Margin of
Victory
2nd
Place
Saint Boniface LPC CPC 11.2 LPC
Other RidingsDifference from
Saint Boniface
2008 Election Results
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Northern Ontario
Riding #3: Sudbury
In 2011, the closest margin of victory for the NDP is in Thunder BayRainy River (though note that
AlgomaManitoulinKapuskasing is very close as well, and would also be a good candidate):
Robocall Riding IncumbentWinning
Party
Margin of
Victory
2nd
Place
Sudbury NDP NDP 21.6 CPC
Other Ridings
Difference
from
Sudbury
Thunder Bay--Rainy River NDP NDP 21.5 0.1 CPC
Algoma--Manitoulin--Kapuskasing NDP NDP 21.4 0.2 CPC
Timmins--James Bay NDP NDP 18.7 2.9 CPC
Nickel Belt NDP NDP 27 5.4 CPC
Kenora CPC CPC 19.1 NDP
Parry Sound--Muskoka CPC CPC 31.5 NDP
2011 Election Results
The choice is the same for the 2008 results:
Robocall Riding IncumbentWinning
Party
Margin of
Victory
2nd
Place
Sudbury LPC NDP 5.0 LPC
Other Ridings
Difference
fromSudbury
Thunder Bay--Rainy River LPC NDP 8.1 3.1 LPC
Algoma--Manitoulin--Kapuskasing LPC NDP 13.0 8.0 LPC
2008 Election Results
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Nova Scotia
Riding #4: SydneyVictoria
In 2011, the closest margin of victory for the LPC is in KingsHants:
Robocall Riding IncumbentWinning
Party
Margin of
Victory
2nd
Place
Sydney--Victoria LPC LPC 2.1 CPC
Other Ridings
Difference
from Sydney--
Victoria
Kings--Hants LPC LPC 3 0.9 CPC
Halifax West/Halifax-Ouest LPC LPC 5.4 3.3 CPC
Cape Breton--Canso LPC LPC 15.8 13.7 CPC
Dartmouth--Cole Harbour LPC NDP 1.2 LPC
Halifax NDP NDP 26 LPC
Sackville--Eastern Shore NDP NDP 23.6 CPC
South Shore--St. Margaret's CPC CPC 7 NDPWest Nova/Nova-Ouest CPC CPC 10.6 LPC
2011 Election Results
In 2008, the closest margin of victory for the LPC was in Cape BretonCanso:
Robocall Riding IncumbentWinning
Party
Margin of
Victory
2nd
Place
Sydney--Victoria LPC LPC 25.0 NDP
Other Ridings
Difference
from S dne
2008 Election Results
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PEI
Riding #5: Egmont
Since the Conservative Party did not win any other riding in PEI in either 2008 or 2011, select the
riding with the lowest margin of victory for the LPC. In both cases, that is Malpeque:
Robocall Riding IncumbentWinning
Party
Margin of
Victory
2nd
PlaceEgmont CPC CPC 23.3 LPC
Other Ridings
Malpeque LPC LPC 3.3 CPC
Charlottetown None LPC 6.8 CPC
Cardigan LPC LPC 11.2 CPC
2011 Election Results
Robocall Riding IncumbentWinning
Party
Margin of
Victory
2nd
Place
Egmont None CPC 0.3 LPC
Other Ridings
Malpeque LPC LPC 4.9 CPC
Charlottetown LPC LPC 18.0 CPC
Cardigan LPC LPC 23.2 CPC
2008 Election Results
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Ontario (2011 version)
We need to pick 22 ridings from the 56 remaining in Southern Ontario (see Appendix, Table 3E), toreplace the following:
Riding IncumbentWinning
Party
Margin of
Victory
2nd
Place
6 Cambridge CPC CPC 25.7 NDP
7 Eglinton--Lawrence LPC CPC 8.4 LPC
8 Etobicoke Centre LPC CPC 0 LPC9 Guelph LPC LPC 10.6 CPC
10 Haldimand--Norfolk CPC CPC 26 LPC
11 Hamilton East--Stoney Creek NDP NDP 9 CPC
12 Kitchener--Conestoga CPC CPC 32.3 NDP
13 Kitchener--Waterloo CPC CPC 3.3 LPC
14 London North Centre LPC CPC 3.2 LPC
15 London West CPC CPC 17.7 LPC
16 Mississauga East--Cooksville None CPC 1.5 LPC
17 Niagara Falls CPC CPC 29.8 NDP
18 Oakville CPC CPC 20.9 LPC
19 Ottawa West--Nepean CPC CPC 13.2 LPC
20 Ottawa--Orlans CPC CPC 6.2 LPC
21 Parkdale--High Park LPC NDP 14.3 LPC
22 Perth--Wellington CPC CPC 33.2 NDP
23 Simcoe--Grey Ind. CPC 32 NDP
24 St. Catharines CPC CPC 27.1 NDP
25 St. Paul's LPC LPC 8.2 CPC26 Wellington--Halton Hills CPC CPC 47.3 LPC
27 Willowdale LPC CPC 1.8 LPC
2011 Election Results
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Riding s #6-23: CPC ridings in Southern Ontario
Continuing the process I outlined above yields the following result; each column represents one ofthe robocall ridings, and each row represents an alternative riding that can be chosen. Following thealgorithm, for each column, pick from the remaining rows in order to minimize the difference
between the winning margins of the old (robocall) and new (non-robocall) ridings.
Other Ridings
Rob
ocallR
idin
gs
(Roun
ds)
EtobicokeC
entre
MississaugaEast--Cooksville
Willowdale
London
North
Centre
Kitchener--W
aterloo
Ottawa--Orlans
Eglinton--La
wrence
Ottawa
West--Nepean
London
West
Oakville
Cambridge
Haldimand-
-Norfolk
St.Catharin
es
NiagaraFalls
Simcoe--Gr
ey
Kitchener--C
onestoga
Perth--Wellington
Wellington-
-Halton
Hills
Margin 0 1.5 1.8 3.2 3.3 6.2 8.4 13.2 17.7 20.9 25.7 26 27.1 29.8 32 32.3 33.2 47.3
Bramalea--Gore--Malton 0.9 1
Don Valley West 1.1 2
Pickering--Scarborough East 2.5 3
Scarborough Centre 3.9 4
Etobicoke--Lakeshore 5.2 5
Ajax--Pickering 5.8 6
Richmond Hill 8.8 7
Mississauga South 9.3Mississauga--Brampton South 9.5
Mississauga--Erindale 13.1 8
Oshawa 13.4
York Centre 15.2
Glengarry--Prescott--Russell 18.1 9
Brampton--Springdale 20.4
Brant 20.4 10
Vaughan 26.4 11
Chatham-Kent--Essex 27.5 12
Nepean--Carleton 29.3 13
Huron--Bruce 29.6 14
Prince Edward--Hastings 29.6Newmarket--Aurora 30.4
Burlington 30.9
Northumberland--Quinte West 32.8 15
Carleton--Mississippi Mills 33
Elgin--Middlesex--London 33 16
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Ridings #24-25: LPC ridings in Southern Ontario
Based on margin of victory alone, the above algorithm would select OttawaVanier and OttawaSouth. Note that in my previous note, based on the criterion of proximity, I instead chose ridings inthe GTA (i.e., closer to the robocall ridings).
Robocall Ridings IncumbentWinning
Party
Margin of
Victory
2nd
Place
St. Paul's LPC LPC 8.2 CPC
Guelph LPC LPC 10.6 CPC
Other RidingsDifference
from St. Paul's
Difference
from Guelph
Scarborough--Guildwood LPC LPC 1.8 6.4 8.8 CPC
Ottawa--Vanier LPC LPC 8.8 0.6 1.8 NDP
Etobicoke North LPC LPC 10.3 2.1 0.3 CPC
Ottawa South LPC LPC 10.7 2.5 0.1 CPC
Toronto Centre LPC LPC 10.8 2.6 0.2 NDP
Scarborough--Agincourt LPC LPC 11.2 3 0.6 CPC
York West LPC LPC 19.2 11 8.6 NDP
2011 Election Results
Ridings #26-27: NDP ridings in Southern Ontario
Again, based on margin of victory alone, the above algorithm would select Hamilton Mountain andScarboroughRouge River (York SouthWeston is also a strong candidate).
Robocall Ridings Incumbent
Winning
Party
Margin of
Victory
2nd
Place
Hamilton East--Stoney Creek NDP NDP 9 CPC
Parkdale--High Park LPC NDP 14.3 LPC
Difference Difference
2011 Election Results
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Ontario (2008 version)
We need to pick 22 ridings from the 56 remaining in Southern Ontario (see Appendix, Table 3E), toreplace the following:
Riding IncumbentWinning
Party
Margin of
Victory
2nd
Place
6 Kitchener--Waterloo LPC CPC 0.0 LPC
7 London West LPC CPC 3.7 CPC
8 Ottawa--Orlans CPC CPC 6.1 LPC
9 Haldimand--Norfolk CPC CPC 8.5 LPC
10 Ottawa West--Nepean CPC CPC 8.9 LPC
11 Oakville LPC CPC 9.9 LPC
12 St. Catharines CPC CPC 17.3 LPC
13 Niagara Falls CPC CPC 19.7 LPC
14 Perth--Wellington CPC CPC 24.4 LPC
15 Kitchener--Conestoga CPC CPC 24.4 LPC
16 Cambridge CPC CPC 25.2 LPC
17 Simcoe--Grey CPC CPC 33.5 LPC
18 Wellington--Halton Hills CPC CPC 35.3 LPC19 Guelph None LPC 3.0 CPC
20 Eglinton--Lawrence LPC LPC 4.7 CPC
21 Parkdale--High Park NDP LPC 7.0 NDP
22 Etobicoke Centre LPC LPC 11.3 CPC
23 Willowdale LPC LPC 16.2 CPC
24 Mississauga East--Cooksville LPC LPC 17.6 CPC
25 St. Paul's LPC LPC 23.8 CPC
26 London North Centre NDP NDP 6.2 CPC
27 Hamilton East--Stoney Creek NDP NDP 13.4 LPC
2008 Election Results
To simplify, again, this may be done in three stages:
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Riding s #6-18: CPC ridings in Southern Ontario
Continuing the process I outlined above yields the following result; each column represents one ofthe robocall ridings, and each row represents an alternative riding that can be chosen. Following thealgorithm, for each column, pick from the remaining rows in order to minimize the difference
between the winning margins of the old (robocall) and new (non-robocall) ridings.
Other Ridings
Rob
ocall
Ridin
gs
(Rou
nds)
Kitchener--Waterloo
London
West
Ottawa--Orlans
Haldimand--N
orfolk
Ottawa
West--Nepean
Oakville
St.Catharines
NiagaraFalls
Perth--Welling
ton
Kitchener--Conestoga
Cambridge
Simcoe--Grey
Wellington--Ha
ltonHills
Margin 0.0 3.7 6.1 8.5 8.9 9.9 17.3 19.7 24.4 24.4 25.2 33.5 35.3
Mississauga--Erindale 0.7 1
Oshawa 6.6 2
Brant 8.8 3
Thornhill 9.6 4
Glengarry--Prescott--Russell 10.4 5
Huron--Bruce 11.8 6
Newmarket--Aurora 12.4
Burlington 15.4
Chatham-Kent--Essex 18.8 7
Northumberland--Quinte West 20.1 8
Bruce--Grey--Owen Sound 20.5
Simcoe North 22.0
Prince Edward--Hastings 23.1
Elgin--Middlesex--London 24.9 9
Whitby--Oshawa 25.3 10
Lambton--Kent--Middlesex 26.6 11Niagara West--Glanbrook 28.0
Barrie 28.5
Durham 31.0
Nepean--Carleton 32.4
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Ridings #19-25: LPC ridings in Southern Ontario
Continuing the process I outlined above yields the following result; each column represents one ofthe robocall ridings, and each row represents an alternative riding that can be chosen. Following thealgorithm, for each column, pick from the remaining rows in order to minimize the difference
between the winning margins of the old (robocall) and new (non-robocall) ridings.
Other Ridings
Rob
ocallR
idin
gs
(Rou
nds)
Guelph
Eglinton--Lawrence
Parkdale--High
Park
Etobicoke
Centre
Willowdale
Mississauga
East--C
ooksville
St.Paul's
Margin 3.0 4.7 7.0 11.3 16.2 17.6 23.8
Brampton--Springdale 1.7 1
Mississauga South 4.6 2
York Centre 5.5Don Valley West 5.5
Ajax--Pickering 6.6 3
Bramalea--Gore--Malton 7.9
Beaches--East York 8.8
Etobicoke--Lakeshore 11.3 4
Richmond Hill 11.3
Mississauga--Brampton South 14.7
Vaughan 14.9
Ottawa South 16.5 5
Pickering--Scarborough East 17.2 6Etobicoke North 18.5
Scarborough Centre 18.6
York South--Weston 18.7
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Ridings #26-27: NDP ridings in Southern Ontario
Based on the margin of victory alone, the above algorithm would select Hamilton Mountain andTrinitySpadina (both were included in my original regression).
Robocall Ridings IncumbentWinning
Party
Margin of
Victory
2nd
Place
London North Centre NDP NDP 6.2 CPC
Hamilton East--Stoney Creek NDP NDP 13.4 LPC
Other Ridings Differencefrom London
North Centre
Differencefrom Hamilton
East
Welland LPC NDP 0.6 5.6 12.8 CPC
Trinity--Spadina NDP NDP 5.8 0.4 7.6 LPC
London--Fanshawe NDP NDP 12.2 6.0 1.2 CPC
Hamilton Mountain NDP NDP 13.0 6.8 0.4 CPC
Toronto--Danforth NDP NDP 15.4 9.2 2.0 LPC
Hamilton Centre NDP NDP 27.0 20.8 13.6 CPC
2008 Election Results
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Regression Results
Given Prof. Kesslers model,
I estimated with the two sets of ridings picked algorithmically as described above (alg2011i for those
selected via comparing 2011 election results, and alg2008i for those selected via comparing 2008election results).7
(7-1)
(7-2)
As before, I also estimated additional models that include both new and old (robocall) interaction
terms:
(7-3)
(7 4)
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From Prof. Kesslers paper, note the coefficient of the robocall interaction variable: 8
Compare it to the coefficients using 27 other (non-robocall) ridings, selected algorithmically based
on their regional and political similarities to the 27 robocall ridings:
coefficient standard error
lagturnout .718** (.0115)
lagoppvoteshare .058** (.007)
alg2011 x lagoppvoteshare .038** (.017)
number of observations 57241
Table 7-1: Voter Turnout and Non-Robocall Ridings
(selected algorithmically using 2011 data): non-weightedregressions
Within District Difference-in-Difference Estimates
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coefficient standard error
lagturnout .718** (.0116)
lagoppvoteshare .053** (.007)
robocall x lagoppvoteshare .054** (.014)
alg2011 x lagoppvoteshare .043** (.017)
number of observations 57241
Table 7-3: Voter Turnout, Robocall Ridings and Non-
Robocall Ridings (selected algorithmically using 2011 data):
non-weighted regressions
Within District Difference-in-Difference Estimates
coefficient standard error
lagturnout .718** (.0116)
lagoppvoteshare .050** (.007)
robocall x lagoppvoteshare .057** (.014)
alg2008 x lagoppvoteshare .066** (.023)
number of observations 57241
Table 7-4: Voter Turnout, Robocall Ridings and Non-
Robocall Ridings (selected algorithmically using 2008 data):
non-weighted regressions
Within District Difference-in-Difference Estimates
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AppendixTable 1: Original 27 Ridings (Robocalls)
Riding Region Incumbent WinningParty
Margin ofVictory
2ndPlace
Incumbent WinningParty
Margin ofVictory
2ndPlace
1 Saint Boniface Manitoba LPC CPC 11.2 LPC CPC CPC 19.5 LPC
2 Winnipeg South Centre Manitoba LPC LPC 6.0 CPC LPC CPC 1.8 LPC
3 Sudbury Northern ON LPC NDP 5.0 LPC NDP NDP 21.6 CPC
4 Sydney--Victoria Nova Scotia LPC LPC 25.0 NDP LPC LPC 2.1 CPC
5 Egmont PEI None CPC 0.3 LPC CPC CPC 23.3 LPC
6 Cambridge Southern ON CPC CPC 25.2 LPC CPC CPC 25.7 NDP
7 Eglinton--Lawrence * Southern ON LPC LPC 4.7 CPC LPC CPC 8.4 LPC
8 Etobicoke Centre Southern ON LPC LPC 11.3 CPC LPC CPC 0 ** LPC
9 Guelph Southern ON None LPC 3.0 CPC LPC LPC 10.6 CPC
10 Haldimand--Norfolk Southern ON CPC CPC 8.5 LPC CPC CPC 26 LPC
11 Hamilton East--Stoney Creek Southern ON NDP NDP 13.4 LPC NDP NDP 9 CPC12 Kitchener--Conestoga Southern ON CPC CPC 24.4 LPC CPC CPC 32.3 NDP
13 Kitchener--Waterloo Southern ON LPC CPC 0 ** LPC CPC CPC 3.3 LPC
14 London North Centre Southern ON LPC LPC 6.2 CPC LPC CPC 3.2 LPC
15 London West * Southern ON LPC CPC 3.7 LPC CPC CPC 17.7 LPC
16 Mississauga East--Cooksville Southern ON LPC LPC 17.6 CPC None CPC 1.5 LPC
17 Niagara Falls Southern ON CPC CPC 19.7 LPC CPC CPC 29.8 NDP
18 Oakville Southern ON LPC CPC 9.9 LPC CPC CPC 20.9 LPC
19 Ottawa West--Nepean Southern ON CPC CPC 8.9 LPC CPC CPC 13.2 LPC
20 Ottawa--Orlans Southern ON CPC CPC 6.1 LPC CPC CPC 6.2 LPC
21 Parkdale--High Park Southern ON NDP LPC 7.0 NDP LPC NDP 14.3 LPC
22 Perth--Wellington * Southern ON CPC CPC 24.4 LPC CPC CPC 33.2 NDP
23 Simcoe--Grey Southern ON CPC CPC 33.5 LPC Ind. CPC 32 NDP24 St. Catharines Southern ON CPC CPC 17.3 LPC CPC CPC 27.1 NDP
25 St. Paul's Southern ON LPC LPC 23.8 CPC LPC LPC 8.2 CPC
26 Wellington--Halton Hills * Southern ON CPC CPC 35.3 LPC CPC CPC 47.3 LPC
27 Willowdale Southern ON LPC LPC 16.2 CPC LPC CPC 1.8 LPC
* These four ridings are not included in Prof. Kessler's "extended" list. ** Margin < 0.1% in Kitchener-Waterloo in 2008, and Etobicoke Centre in 2011.
2008 2011
19
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Table 2: Another 25 Robocall Ridings (from Extended List)
Riding Region IncumbentWinning
Party
Margin of
Victory
2nd
PlaceIncumbent
Winning
Party
Margin of
Victory
2nd
Place
28 Winnipeg Centre Manitoba NDP NDP 27.3 CPC NDP NDP 26.1 CPC
29 Winnipeg South Manitoba CPC CPC 14.0 LPC CPC CPC 19.5 LPC
30 Nipissing--Timiskaming Northern ON LPC LPC 12.2 CPC LPC CPC 0.1 LPC
31 Sault Ste. Marie Northern ON NDP NDP 2.7 CPC NDP CPC 4.2 NDP
32 Thunder Bay--Superior North Northern ON None NDP 8.7 LPC NDP NDP 20.2 CPC
33 South Shore--St. Margaret's Nova Scotia CPC CPC 2.3 NDP CPC CPC 7 NDP
34 West Nova Nova Scotia LPC CPC 3.8 LPC CPC CPC 10.6 LPC
35 Ancaster--Dundas--Flamborough Southern ON CPC CPC 19.4 LPC CPC CPC 26.6 LPC
36 Brampton West Southern ON None LPC 0.4 CPC LPC CPC 9.8 LPC
37 Davenport Southern ON LPC LPC 14.5 NDP LPC NDP 25.8 LPC
38 Don Valley East Southern ON LPC LPC 17.1 CPC LPC CPC 2.2 LPC
39 Essex Southern ON CPC CPC 10.9 LPC CPC CPC 12.9 NDP
40 Halton Southern ON LPC CPC 11.3 LPC CPC CPC 28.7 LPC
41 Kingston and the Islands Southern ON LPC LPC 6.6 CPC None LPC 4.4 CPC
42 Kitchener Centre Southern ON LPC CPC 0.8 LPC CPC CPC 11.1 LPC
43 Lanark--Frontenac--Lennox Southern ON CPC CPC 34.1 LPC CPC CPC 36.6 NDP
44 Markham--Unionville Southern ON LPC LPC 24.9 CPC LPC LPC 3.4 CPC
45 Mississauga--Streetsville Southern ON CPC LPC 10.0 CPC LPC CPC 6.9 LPC
46 Oak Ridges--Markham Southern ON LPC CPC 0.7 LPC CPC CPC 22.8 LPC
47 Ottawa Centre Southern ON NDP NDP 13.7 LPC NDP NDP 30.4 CPC
48 Peterborough Southern ON CPC CPC 15.8 LPC CPC CPC 24.8 NDP
49 Sarnia--Lambton Southern ON CPC CPC 28.4 NDP CPC CPC 22.7 NDP
50 Scarborough Southwest Southern ON None LPC 12.3 CPC LPC NDP 3.2 CPC
51 Windsor West Southern ON NDP NDP 29.9 CPC NDP NDP 22.7 CPC
52 Windsor--Tecumseh Southern ON NDP NDP 24.8 CPC NDP NDP 16.3 CPC
2008 2011
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Table 3A: All Remaining Ridings in Manitoba
Riding Incumbent
Winning
Party
Margin of
Victory
2nd
Place Incumbent
Winning
Party
Margin of
Victory
2nd
Place
1 Brandon--Souris CPC CPC 39.4 NDP CPC CPC 38.5 NDP
2 Charleswood--St. James--Assiniboia CPC CPC 32.6 LPC CPC CPC 37.5 NDP
3 Churchill LPC NDP 18.7 LPC NDP NDP 24.9 CPC
4 Dauphin--Swan River--Marquette CPC CPC 44.7 NDP CPC CPC 37 NDP
5 Elmwood--Transcona None NDP 5.0 CPC NDP CPC 0.9 NDP
6 Kildonan--St. Paul CPC CPC 20.7 NDP CPC CPC 28.1 NDP
7 Portage--Lisgar None CPC 54.7 LPC CPC CPC 66.2 NDP
8 Provencher CPC CPC 50.9 NDP CPC CPC 52.7 NDP
9 Selkirk--Interlake CPC CPC 35.9 NDP CPC CPC 38.7 NDP
10 Winnipeg North NDP NDP 40.3 CPC LPC LPC 0.2 NDP
2008 2011
Table 3B: All Remaining Ridings in Northern Ontario
Riding IncumbentWinning
Party
Margin of
Victory
2nd
PlaceIncumbent
Winning
Party
Margin of
Victory
2nd
Place
1 Algoma--Manitoulin--Kapuskasing LPC NDP 13.0 LPC NDP NDP 21.4 CPC
2 Kenora LPC CPC 8.8 LPC CPC CPC 19.1 NDP
3 Nickel Belt None NDP 20.2 LPC NDP NDP 27 CPC
4 Parry Sound--Muskoka CPC CPC 25.2 LPC CPC CPC 31.5 NDP
5 Thunder Bay--Rainy River LPC NDP 8.1 LPC NDP NDP 21.5 CPC
6 Timmins--James Bay NDP NDP 34.4 LPC NDP NDP 18.7 CPC
2008 2011
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Table 3C: All Remaining Ridings in Nova Scotia
Riding IncumbentWinning
Party
Margin of
Victory
2nd
PlaceIncumbent
Winning
Party
Margin of
Victory
2nd
Place
1 Cape Breton--Canso LPC LPC 24.6 CPC LPC LPC 15.8 CPC
2 Dartmouth--Cole Harbour LPC LPC 7.9 NDP LPC NDP 1.2 LPC
3 Halifax None NDP 15.1 LPC NDP NDP 26 LPC
4 Halifax West/Halifax-Ouest LPC LPC 12.0 NDP LPC LPC 5.4 CPC
5 Kings--Hants LPC LPC 18.0 CPC LPC LPC 3 CPC
6 Sackville--Eastern Shore NDP NDP 40.7 CPC NDP NDP 23.6 CPC
7 South Shore--St. Margaret's CPC CPC 2.3 NDP CPC CPC 7 NDP
8 West Nova/Nova-Ouest LPC CPC 3.8 LPC CPC CPC 10.6 LPC
2008 2011
Table 3D: All Remaining Ridings in PEI
Riding IncumbentWinning
Party
Margin of
Victory
2nd
PlaceIncumbent
Winning
Party
Margin of
Victory
2nd
Place
1 Cardigan LPC LPC 23.2 CPC LPC LPC 11.2 CPC
2 Charlottetown LPC LPC 18.0 CPC None LPC 6.8 CPC
3 Malpeque LPC LPC 4.9 CPC LPC LPC 3.3 CPC
2008 2011
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Table 3E: All Remaining Ridings in Southern Ontario
Riding IncumbentWinning
Party
Margin of
Victory
2nd
PlaceIncumbent
Winning
Party
Margin of
Victory
2nd
Place
1 Ajax--Pickering LPC LPC 6.6 CPC LPC CPC 5.8 LPC
2 Barrie CPC CPC 28.5 LPC CPC CPC 35.8 NDP
3 Beaches--East York LPC LPC 8.8 NDP LPC NDP 10.8 LPC
4 Bramalea--Gore--Malton LPC LPC 7.9 CPC LPC CPC 0.9 NDP
5 Brampton--Springdale LPC LPC 1.7 CPC LPC CPC 20.4 LPC
6 Brant LPC CPC 8.8 LPC CPC CPC 20.4 NDP
7 Bruce--Grey--Owen Sound CPC CPC 20.5 GRN CPC CPC 38.7 NDP
8 Burlington CPC CPC 15.4 LPC CPC CPC 30.9 LPC
9 Carleton--Mississippi Mills CPC CPC 35.4 LPC CPC CPC 33 LPC
10 Chatham-Kent--Essex CPC CPC 18.8 LPC CPC CPC 27.5 NDP
11 Don Valley West None LPC 5.5 CPC LPC CPC 1.1 LPC
12 Dufferin--Caledon CPC CPC 33.9 LPC CPC CPC 44.3 NDP
13 Durham CPC CPC 31 LPC CPC CPC 33.4 NDP
14 Elgin--Middlesex--London CPC CPC 24.9 LPC CPC CPC 33 NDP
15 Etobicoke North LPC LPC 18.5 CPC LPC LPC 10.3 CPC
16 Etobicoke--Lakeshore LPC LPC 11.3 CPC LPC CPC 5.2 LPC
17 Glengarry--Prescott--Russell CPC CPC 10.4 LPC CPC CPC 18.1 LPC
18 Haliburton--Kawartha Lakes CPC CPC 35.5 LPC CPC CPC 37.9 NDP
19 Hamilton Centre NDP NDP 27.0 CPC NDP NDP 30.6 CPC
20 Hamilton Mountain NDP NDP 13.0 CPC NDP NDP 14.1 CPC
21 Huron--Bruce None CPC 11.8 LPC CPC CPC 29.6 NDP22 Lambton--Kent--Middlesex CPC CPC 26.6 LPC CPC CPC 33.7 NDP
23 Leeds--Grenville CPC CPC 41.3 LPC CPC CPC 42.5 NDP
24 London--Fanshawe NDP NDP 12.2 CPC NDP NDP 17.4 CPC
25 Mississauga South LPC LPC 4.6 CPC LPC CPC 9.3 LPC
26 Mississauga--Brampton South LPC LPC 14.7 CPC LPC CPC 9.5 LPC
27 Mississauga--Erindale LPC CPC 0.7 LPC CPC CPC 13.1 LPC
28 Nepean--Carleton CPC CPC 32.4 LPC CPC CPC 29.3 LPC
29 Newmarket--Aurora None CPC 12.4 LPC CPC CPC 30.4 LPC
30 Niagara West--Glanbrook CPC CPC 28.0 LPC CPC CPC 35.7 NDP
31 Northumberland--Quinte West CPC CPC 20.1 LPC CPC CPC 32.8 LPC
32 Oshawa CPC CPC 6.6 NDP CPC CPC 13.4 NDP33 Ottawa South LPC LPC 16.5 CPC LPC LPC 10.7 CPC
34 Ottawa--Vanier LPC LPC 18.9 CPC LPC LPC 8.8 NDP
35 Oxford CPC CPC 33.3 LPC CPC CPC 33.3 NDP
36 Pickering--Scarborough East LPC LPC 17.2 CPC LPC CPC 2.5 LPC
2008 2011
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Table 4: Alternative Ridings Selected via Algorithm
Original List (Robocall Ridings) My Original List (Previous Note) List Produced by Algorithm (2008) List Produced by Algorithm (2011)
Saint Boniface, MB Winnipeg South, MB
Winnipeg South Centre, MB
Sudbury, Northern ON
Sydney Victoria, NS Kings-Hants, NS Cape BretonCanso, NS Kings-Hants, NS
Egmont, PEI
Cambridge, Southern ON
Eglinton-Lawrence, Southern ON Don Valley West, Southern ON Ottawa South, Southern ON Don Valley West, Southern ON
Etobicoke Centre, Southern ON
Guelph, Southern ON Etobicoke North, Southern ON Brampton--Springdale, Southern ON Ottawa--Vanier, Southern ON
Haldimand-Norfolk, Southern ON
Hamilton East-Stoney Creek, Southern ON
Kitchener-Conestoga, Southern ON Vaughan, Southern ON Whitby--Oshawa, Southern ON Vaughan, Southern ON
Kitchener-Waterloo, Southern ON
London North Centre, Southern ON
London West, Southern ON
Mississauga East-Cooksville, Southern ON Richmond Hill, Southern ON
Niagara Fal ls, Southern ON Niagara West -Glanbrook, Southern ONOakville, Southern ON Burlington, Southern ON
Ottawa Orleans, Southern ON Scarborough Centre, Southern ON Thornhill, Southern ON Scarborough Centre, Southern ON
Ottawa West-Napean, Southern ON
Parkdale-High Park, Southern ON Scarborough--Rouge River, Southern ON
Perth-Wellington, Southern ON
Simcoe-Grey, Southern ON Simcoe North, Southern ON
St. Catharines, Southern ON Newmarket-Aurora, Southern ON Oshawa, Southern ON Nepean--Carleton, Southern ON
St. Paul's, Southern ON Toronto Centre, Southern ON Scarborough--Agincourt, Southern ON Ottawa South, Southern ON
Wel lington-Halton Hi lls, Southern ON Duffer in-Caledon, Southern ON Car le ton--Mississippi Mi lls, Southern ON Dufferin- -Caledon, Southern ON
W illowdale, Southern ON York Centre, Southern ON Lambton--Kent--Middlesex, Southern ON Bramalea--Gore--Malton, Southern ON
Ajax-Pickering, Southern ON
Northumberland--Quinte West, Southern ONGlengarry--Prescott--Russell, Southern ON
Chatham-Kent--Essex, Southern ON
Huron-Bruce, Southern ON
Brant, Southern ON
Trinity-Spadina, Southern ON
Oxford, Southern ON
Etobicoke-Lakeshore, Southern ON
Elgin-Middlesex-London, ON
Mississauga South, Southern ON
Hamilton Mountain, Southern ON
Mississauga-Erindale, Southern ON
Pickering-Scarborough East, Southern ON
KildonanSt. Paul, MB
Elmwood-Transcona, MB
Thunder Bay-Rainy River, Northern ON
Malpeque, PEI
24