A NOTE ON FURTHER COAL DEVELOPMENTS.

A paper published in the October 1947 BULLETIN gave sorne seasonallycorrected estimates of coal production.' The table below extends the season-ally corrected figures through the winter months, calculated in the same way,with inland consumption shown separately because of the increasing exports.(Corrections for the inclusion of New Year's Day in the December figuresand the early Easter were made by using assumptions described in theOctober issue.)

SEASONALLY CORRECTED COAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION

(Annual rates, in millions of tons)1947

Sept. Oct. Nov. Dcc.1948jan. Feb. Mar. Âpr.*

Total production t ...... 192 199 210 211 208 209 210 (210)Total consumption 187 191 196 201 196 206 201 (208)Inland consumption 180 186 190 195 188 196 191 (192)

* Provisional. t Mined and opencast.

September production was lowered by strikes, and the jump in Novembershows the effect of the miners' agreement to work longer hours. Since thenoutput has been maintained at a rate which promises the achievement of thisyear's target of zx i million tons,2 and an excess if the long-term trend ofimprovement is maintained.3 The difference between total production andtotal consumption shows that the seasonally corrected stock level has beenrising, up to April, or to put it another way, actual stocks have been fallingfar more slowly than they usually do in winter months. Seasonally correctedtotal stocks (corresponding to end-October levels) at the end of March wereabout zi million tons, or 34 million tons higher than at the end of October,which indicates that stocks of 20 million tons for the coming winter are quitecompatible with the present levels of production and consumption.

The rise in corrected inland consumption is marked. Despite the milderweather, inland consumption has been running at a slightly higher rate thanthe previous winter, showing the effect of the easing of restrictions.4 Thedifference between Total Consumption and Inland Consumption is due tooverseas shipments and bunkers', the rate of which has also been rising

sharply. Since there is now no need to maintain a gap between correctedproduction and total consumption rates (because of the stock position), itshould be possible to increase overseas shipments substantially in the comingmonths.

This series will in future be shown in the United Kingdom table in theTabular Appendix, because the weekly averages which are published havelittle significance until they are corrected for seasonal fluctuations.

DUDLEY SEERS.

Vol. 9 pp 340-2. 2 Economic Survey, p. '3.Though recently, as can be seen from the table, there has heels no increase in cor-

rected output rates.Delivery by merchants to domestic consumers coilnt as consumption ', so that the

high level of consumption for some months may be duc tu doinestie stocks rising ratherthan to high usage.