A Model of Hostile Intent: Field Trial

Dr Peter Eachus

Dr Alex Stedmon

Professor Les Baillie

Cartagena, Colombia, November 18th-20th 2010

unclassified

Hostile Intent

Most, if not all successful terrorist operations, have involved active hostile reconnaissance, before the attack was launched.

Terrorist actions require intelligence, obtained through hostile reconnaissance.

Intelligence can be gathered via open sources, e.g. the Internet, web cams, googlemaps, streetview (Times Square bomber).

For immediate, timely intelligence, active reconnaissance will be required and it is at this time that the terrorist may be at their most vulnerable.

In the era of the suicide terrorist, detecting the terrorist at the moment they are about to carry out their threat, is too late.

Mumbai

New York

Madrid

Nairobi

Beirut

London

London Bombers

London bombers on their way to carry out the attack on 7/7

Hostile Reconnaissance

CCTV film of three July 7 bombers doing a dummy run on the Tube a week before the attacks that killed 52

Towards a Model of Hostile Intent

Essentially, hostile reconnaissance will be experienced as highly stressful for the perpetrator and the purpose of this study is to determine how this stress response is manifested and what influence this might have on the behaviour of the individual concerned.

In this field study participants were placed in situations of increasing stress, designed to mimic that found during hostile reconnaissance. After establishing baseline levels of stress within a laboratory situation, participants were then asked to traverse a crowded place within the real world, namely a busy shopping mall. By requiring participants to complete an increasingly demanding task, i.e. simulating hostile intent, stress levels were manipulated and the consequences in terms of behavioural, psychological, physiological and biological status were evaluated.

Relationship between Hostile Intent and Parameters of Stress

INTENT

Hostile Reconnaisance and Stress

It seems highly likely that those engaged in hostile reconnaissance will experience high levels of stress, perhaps more so than they do when actively engaged in a terrorist action.

Stress can manifest itself:

Psychologically.....anxiety, irritabity, depression.

Physiologically......heart rate, sweating, pupil dilation, increase in core temperature, respiration.

Biologically........... cortisol secretion (stress hormone), production of alarm, or stress pheromones.

Behaviourally........speech, paralanguage, but perhaps more gross measures of behaviour, e.g. anomalous movement or responses.

The Field TrialData Collection:

Psychological: State Trait Anxiety Inventory

Physiological: HR, Respiration, Body Temperature

Biological: Salivary Cortisol, Axillary Sweat

Behavioural: CCTV Recording

The Task

Participants were asked to traverse the given route, taking photographs at designated points “as evidence” that they had completed the traverse. They were informed that the traverse was untimed but should take about 15 minutes. Data was recorded during the traverse. Participants paid £20.

Participants (20 males) were informed that they were taking part in an experiment investigating stress and shopping.

Baseline data was collected at psychophysiological laboratory, University of Salford. Participant paid £10.

Participants then transported to nearby shopping mall known as the Trafford Centre.

This first traverse was designated Low Intent because of the relatively low levels of stress likely to be induced..

Trafford Centre

Simulation of Hostile Intent

On completion of first traverse all participants were told that they had been successful and after retrieving the psychological, physiological and biological data, they were paid £20.

Participants were now offered the opportunity to take part in a second traverse. However this time they were informed that the traverse would be timed and that they had to complete it 10% faster than their first traverse.

Inducing StressAs well as having to complete the traverse more quickly, participants were also informed that on the second traverse CCTV operators and plain clothes security staff would be looking for any unusual or obtrusive behaviour.

They were also told that two previous participants had been observed because they were almost running in an attempt to beat the deadline (this was not the case).

Finally, participants were informed that if they completed the second traverse successfully, i.e. within time, with all the target photographs, and without being observed, then they would be paid a further £70, taking their total payment for participation to £100.

However, the participants were also informed that if they were unsuccessful in the second traverse, then not only would they lose the £70, but they would also lose the £20 paid for the first traverse. This was designated the High Intent condition as it was designed to induce high levels of stress, thus simulating hostile reconnaissance.

Findings

Psychological Parameter

The psychological data was obtained using the STAI (State Trait Anxiety Inventory), a self-report measure of psychological state. High scores (max 24) indicated high levels of stress.

Increasing STAI

Baseline

8.84

Low Intent

10.78

High Intent

13.08

ANOVA

F=28.859

P<0.001

Findings

Physiological Parameters

Baseline79.35

Increasing Heart Rate

Beats/min

Low Intent109.15

High Intent134.67

ANOVAF=71.52P<0.001

Findings

Physiological Parameters

Baseline16.25

Increasing Respiration

Breaths/min

Low Intent23.89

High Intent26.97

ANOVAF=73.037P<0.001

Findings

Physiological Parameters

Baseline32.90

Increasing Temperature

Degrees C

Low Intent32.95

High Intent33.07

ANOVANot significant

Findings

Bioiological Parameters

Baseline0.021802947

Changes in Salivary Cortisol

Samples of cortisol obtained at start and end of each of three conditions.

Low Intent-0.084963158

High Intent0.305339368

Paired sample t-test for High Intent t=3.250P<0.004

Findings

Bioiological Parameters

Stress Pheromone

Findings

Bioiological Parameters

Stress Pheromone ?

Findings

Bioiological Parameters

Stress pheromone precursor detected using Gas Chromotography - Mass Spectrometry (GC-MS) .

The pattern shown was only found in the sweat of participants in High Intent condition.

34 34.5 35 35.5 36 36.5 37 37.5-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7x 10

4

A

B

C D

Figure 2.0: Peaks identified from GC traces as varying between reference and stressed samples. Traces for samples 2,3 and 4 are overlaid.

Findings

Behavioural Parameter

To evaluate the behavioural parameter a group of 15 volunteers was asked to watch the CCTV clips of the participants in the Low Intent and High Intent conditions. At the end of each clip they were asked to rate how “stressed” the participant appeared to be using a 10 point Likert scale, where 1 = low stress and 10 = high stress.

No significant differences were found in the ratings for the Low Intent and High Intent CCTV clips.

Innocent tourism or hostile intent?

Conclusions

The research presented here has demonstrated that it is possible to simulate terrorist behaviour during hostile reconnaissance.

In this field trial of hostile intent the predicted changes, psychologically, physiologically and biologically have all been confirmed. The behavioural changes, if any, require further study.

It is suggested that this validation of the model will prove fruitful in further research that seeks to understand the nature of hostile intent.

Thank you for listening

Questions ?

Cartagena, Colombia, November 18th-20th 2010