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asteco.com In the Middle East for over 30 Years 2016 MID YEAR REVIEW AND OUTLOOK A historic review and outlook since 2008 UAE Real Estate Report

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Page 1: A historic review and outlook since 2008 UAE Real Estate Report · 2016-08-29 · A historic review and outlook since 2008 UAE Real Estate Report. UAE Real Estate Report - H1 2016

asteco.comIn the Middle East for over 30 Years

2016 MID YEAR REVIEW AND OUTLOOK

A historic review and outlook since 2008

UAE Real Estate Report

Page 2: A historic review and outlook since 2008 UAE Real Estate Report · 2016-08-29 · A historic review and outlook since 2008 UAE Real Estate Report. UAE Real Estate Report - H1 2016

UAE Real Estate Report - H1 2016

2 © Asteco Property Management, 2016

Content

Editorial Note

UAE Price Comparison

Oxford Economics

Abu Dhabi Historic Review & Outlook

Dubai Historic Review & Outlook

Northern Emirates Historic Review & Outlook

Al Ain Historic Review & Outlook

03

04

05

07

15

22

26

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UAE Real Estate Report - H1 2016

3© Asteco Property Management, 2016

Editorial Note

John Stevens, BSc MRICSManaging Director /Director, Asset Services

2016 has so far been an interesting year for the UAE’s real estate sector. Whilst substantial declines were anticipated over the first half of the year, these appeared to be less pronounced than expected, especially in Dubai and the Northern Emirates as the delivery of supply slowed down considerably.

At the same time, however, the effect of low oil prices continued to affect Abu Dhabi’s real estate market more so than Dubai. This is due to a heavily oil based economy in Abu Dhabi, whereas Dubai has a more diversified income base.

Various measures to improve government revenues are being considered by Ministry of Finance such as the implementation of Value Added Tax (VAT) from 2018 onwards, as well as additional taxes on other products. Increases in water and electricity charges are also being considered. This would lead to a significant rise in the cost of living, which may become prohibitive for many residents.

This would accentuate a trend already seen since the beginning of the year, whereby residents are becoming more budget conscious, downsizing to more affordable units and, in some cases, sending family members back to their home country.

ABU DHABI & AL AINAbu Dhabi and Al Ain have so far predominantly been affected by job and budget cuts, which has led to an increase in vacancies in the leasehold market, putting rental rates under pressure.

In the sales sector, this has negatively affected market sentiment, which could potentially lead to price reductions going forward.

With the IMF forecasting Abu Dhabi’s GDP to grow at 1.7% in 2016 compared to 4.4% actual growth in 2015, further pressure in the real estate market is expected during the second half of the year.

DUBAI

With fears of an oversupply, developers have slowed down the delivery of new properties, which has led to a relative stability of rental rates over the first half of the year, although there has been a significant movement of tenants.

If supply continues to be handed over at the same rate as in the first half of the year, the market could witness some rental growth in select areas, especially as the IMF predicts an improved GDP growth of 3.7% this year compared to 3.6 % in 2015.

Furthermore, investments allocated to airport, rail and tourism infrastructure will promote further economic growth in 2016 and beyond.

Registration of over 8,000 new companies during the first six months of 2016, a 4.3% increase compared with the same period last year, is a clear indication that Dubai continues to be seen as a business hub for the region. This should enable a progressive absorption of the new supply entering the market and a potential recovery of the office sector in the medium to long term.

NORTHERN EMIRATES Whilst the Northern Emirates tends to be left in the shadow of Dubai and Abu Dhabi, significant improvements and additions in the construction industry have been witnessed over the last few years. These include new road connections, better quality housing supply, additional facilities, amenities, and retail, as well as tourism elements, which are making the Northern Emirates more attractive to residents.

Sharjah, Ras Al Khaimah and Ajman have also set up several free trade zones that have been successful in attracting businesses and residents, whereas Fujairah remains driven by tourism and the oil and gas sector.

In the short to medium term the Northern Emirates will continue to be affected by the current economic conditions and low oil prices. We expect significant growth in the longer term, as residents throughout the UAE look for more affordable but good value for money residential options.

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UAE Real Estate Report - H1 2016

4 © Asteco Property Management, 2016

UAE ComparisonPrice movement from 2008 to H1 2016

Rental Rate Evolution

Sales Price Evolution

AVERAGE 2BR APARTMENT RENTAL RATE MOVEMENT

AVERAGE APARTMENT SALES PRICE MOVEMENT

AVERAGE 4BR VILLA RENTAL RATE MOVEMENT

AVERAGE VILLA SALES PRICE MOVEMENT

AVERAGE OFFICE RENTAL RATE MOVEMENT

AVERAGE OFFICE SALES PRICE MOVEMENT

Dubai Abu Dhabi Al Ain Ajman Fujairah Sharjah New Ras Al Khaimah New Umm Al Quwain

Dubai Abu Dhabi

Dubai Abu Dhabi Al Ain

Dubai Abu Dhabi

Dubai Abu Dhabi Al Ain Sharjah

Dubai

250

200

150

100

50

0

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0

500

400

300

200

100

0

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0

400

300

200

100

0

Dec2008

Dec2008

Dec2008

Dec2008

Dec2008

Dec2008

Dec2009

Dec2009

Dec2009

Dec2009

Dec2009

Dec2009

Dec2010

Dec2010

Dec2010

Dec2010

Dec2010

Dec2010

Dec2011

Dec2011

Dec2011

Dec2011

Dec2011

Dec2011

Dec2012

Dec2012

Dec2012

Dec2012

Dec2012

Dec2012

Dec2013

Dec2013

Dec2013

Dec2013

Dec2013

Dec2013

Dec2014

Dec2014

Dec2014

Dec2014

Dec2014

Dec2014

Jun2016

Dec2015

Jun2016

Dec2015

Jun2016

Dec2015

Jun2016

Dec2015

Jun2016

Dec2015

Jun2016

Dec2015

AED

per

ft2

AED

000

’s pa

AED

000

’s pa

AED

per

ft2 p

a

AED

per

ft2

AED

per

ft2

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0

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UAE Real Estate Report - H1 2016

5© Asteco Property Management, 2016

Oxford Economics

GDP to grow by 2.3% this year …with non-oil growth slowing to 2.9% Medium-term outlook more encouraging

The Abu Dhabi real estate sector is highly dependent on government initiatives and therefore, if budget cuts continue as planned, vacancy rates are expected to increase leading to pressure on rental rates. At the same time, negative market sentiment is likely to lead to limited purchases from owner-occupiers in both the residential and commercial sectors.

• Low oil prices could test OPEC policy – the OPEC strategy of maintaining market share looks to be taking effect, with production declines outside of OPEC, notably of US shale producers, but also in China. The recent weakening in the oil price could yet test OPEC’s commitment to this policy in H2, but we still expect the oil price to average $43.6 pb in 2016.

• Oil output limited by policy, capacity – production in the UAE reached 2.91 mbpd in June, according to the IEA. We expect it to stay close to 3.0 mbpd going forward, almost full capacity.

• With oil prices remaining broadly stable in the medium term, forecast at US$50pb in 2017 and US$52pb in 2018, the medium-term outlook for growth remains soft. A combination of a gradual rise in interest rates in line with the US Fed, a strong dollar and the need to finance the budget deficit will keep domestic liquidity conditions under pressure, while growth in neighbouring Gulf countries will also be modest. We expect GDP growth of 2.7% in 2017 and 3.3% in 2018 – still low by historical standards.

We forecast non-oil GDP growth at 2.9% in 2016, with GDP overall at 2.3%.

• Low oil prices tighten liquidity – slower private sector lending, deposit growth and stock market weakness all point to tighter financing conditions and decelerating investment.

• Petrol price hike to hit consumer spending – petrol prices saw the fourth consecutive monthly price rise in July, albeit marginal. We see rising petrol prices contributing to average inflation of 2% in 2016, down from a subsidy-cut induced 4.1% last year.

• Pressure on the currency peg – we do not see a change in the peg to the US dollar in coming months due the potential for policy instability.

• Measures to support the fiscal balance – the government has slowed outlays on non-essential projects, removed some energy subsidies and a region-wide VAT is expected from 2018. Though further measures are expected, such as an increase on tax on tobacco, alcohol and soft drinks, we see the bulk of the adjustment coming from spending restraint (modest by regional standards), gradually recovering oil prices, debt issuance and a running down of reserves, leading to a steady narrowing of the fiscal deficit from 8.5% of GDP in 2016.

Over 2017-19, non-oil growth is seen picking-up to 3.7% per year, slightly faster than in most of the neighbouring countries.

• Diversification strategy – although already well diversified, the UAE aims to transition to a knowledge based economy by 2021, with the contribution of oil to GDP falling to 20% (currently around one-third).

• Business hub status and Expo 2020 will support investment – the UAE ranks highly for its ease of doing business and openness to investment and trade, which will support investment, as will spending in advance of the Dubai World Expo in 2020.

• Pressure on the currency peg – we do not see a change in the peg to the US dollar in coming months due the potential for policy instability.

• Greater support for SMEs - Recent steps towards this include the easing of rules on bank guarantees for SMEs from October 2016. But further support could be given by approving the bankruptcy law, improving access to finance and broadening the credit bureau’s coverage.

Who we are - Oxford EconomicsOxford Economics was founded in 1981 as a commercial venture with Oxford University’s business college to provide economic forecasting and modeling to UK companies and financial institutions expanding abroad. Since

then, we have become one of the world’s foremost independent global advisory firms, providing reports, forecasts and analytical tools on 200 countries, 100 industrial sectors and over 3,000 cities. Our best-of-class global

economic and industry models and analytical tools give us an unparalleled ability to forecast external market trends and assess their economic, social and business impact.

Headquartered in Oxford, England, with regional centres in London, New York, and Singapore, Oxford Economics has offices across the globe in Belfast, Chicago, Dubai, Mexico City, Miami, Milan, Paarl - South Africa,

Paris, Philadelphia, San Francisco, and Washington DC. We employ over 200 full-time people, including more than 120 professional economists, industry experts and business editors—one of the largest teams of macro

economists and thought leadership specialists.

To find out more and request your free trial please contact Paul de Cintra on [email protected]

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UAE Real Estate Report - H1 2016

6 © Asteco Property Management, 2016

Abu DhabiHistoric Review & Outlook

Growth 2002-2008

Recession 2009-2011

• As a consequence of rapidly growing demand coupled with an undersupplied market, rental rates and sales prices achieved unprecedented growth till the end of 2008.

• Most of Abu Dhabi’s buildings were of mid and low quality with residential and commercial properties grossly undersupplied.

• Increased demand prompted the launch of numerous development projects as well as a speculator driven boom.

• With strong economic performance, the number of newcomers to the city increased rapidly putting pressure on residential rates and priced-out a large number of residents.

• Office demand was equally strong and many companies were unable to expand due to the lack of available space.

• Strong demand and slow delivery of new units led to unprecedented levels of rental and sales price inflation.

• Rental rates and sales prices reached an historical peak for all unit types and grades.

• Several projects were launched and sold off-plan at rapidly increasing prices. By the end of 2008, following the financial crisis, the resale market for off-plan properties came to a virtual standstill.

• The global financial crisis led to a rapid correction in prices, which dropped in excess of 60% from their market peak in Q4 2008 to a market low by the end of 2011.

• With only approximately 8,000 new units entering the market over the three-year period, supply levels were still insufficient to cater to demand, which led to a slower but still substantial, rental decline compared with neighbouring Dubai. As a result, a large number of residents were priced-out, and forced to move to cheaper communities in Dubai.

• The first master-planned developments were handed over during the period, most notably Al Bandar and Al Zeina at Al Raha Beach.

• Rental rates fell by nearly 60% since the market peaked in 2008, which led to an internal tenant movement of flight-to-quality and a strong leasing market.

• As rental rates dropped and quality new supply entered the market, transaction levels in Abu Dhabi picked up, which led to a rapid take-up of new residential supply in well planned projects.

• Whilst sales were at a standstill during most of the period, demand increased slowly by end of 2011 as projects began the handover stage.

• With the amount of stock available and high interest rates, sales prices continued to decline up until Q2 2012.

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UAE Real Estate Report - H1 2016

7© Asteco Property Management, 2016

Abu Dhabi

Recovery & Growth 2012-2014

Stabilisation 2015

Market slow down H1 2016

Outlook H2 2016

• The market began to show signs of recovery with a significant increase in rental and sales rates.

• Several new prime and high-end projects were handed over during this period, including projects on Reem Island, Al Raha Beach as well as landmark projects on Saadiyat Island and Abu Dhabi Main Island.

• With quality residential now available at relatively low prices, poorer quality stock with relatively high prices had to adjust their asking rates.

• Internal tenant movement and flight-to-quality prevailed as people took advantage of the options available.

• The number of owner-occupiers gradually rose in line with the increase in finance options offered by banks.

• Transaction levels were up as job security and increased market confidence resulted in tenancy upgrades and home ownership.

• Off-plan sales also recommenced and were successful during 2013 and 2014.

• Sales prices, however, recorded a quick recovery of approximately 28% compared with their lowest point in Q2 2010.

• The office market was relatively stable with a slight decrease in lower quality offices versus a slight increase for higher quality ones.

• The decline in oil prices prompted a general slowdown in investment in 2015. However, due to limited new supply entering the market, rates were still increasing at a moderate pace.

• By end of 2015, the number of residential units reached approximately 234,000 units and office supply stood at 3.3 million sqm of GLA.

• Overall demand levels remained stable throughout the year, however, as limited new supply was completed, rates remained broadly unchanged.

• The flight-to-quality situation continued to put pressure on older and lower quality properties.

• Sales demand focused on completed rather than off-plan products, whereas in the leasing market prime and high quality residential projects were the most sought after developments in 2015; achieving close to full occupancy.

• The Abu Dhabi market witnessed a slight slowdown, mainly due to the decrease in oil prices since the beginning of 2015, affecting government spending that led to significant job cuts in the last six to eight months.

• Overall, residential rental rates decreased by 3%, on average, with high-end products down by 4% in the first half of 2016.

• The sales market was quiet during the first six months of the year with a slight decrease in sales prices recorded on Reem Island.

• Average rental rates for office space for the whole of Abu Dhabi were relatively stable. However, some landlords who were previously only offering large space for lease have now become more flexible and started offering smaller units with attractive payment plans and service charges included in the rate.

• Limited supply of villas and apartments (<1,000 units) handed over in H1 2016, constrained any major reduction in rental rates.

• Various government budget cuts could continue to have an impact on the lease market, as residents could either lose their jobs or see a reduction in their housing allowance.

• The office sector could also see rates come under pressure as government entities, the main tenants in Abu Dhabi, are unwilling to pay above average market rates.

• Several delayed office projects are due to be handed over by the end of the year, including Al Hilal Bank building on Maryah Island, ADNOC headquarters on the Corniche, and ADIB headquarters on Airport Road.

• Projected residential supply for H2 2016 is limited and predominantly concentrated at the high-end / owner-occupied market (Hidd Al Saadyat and Saraya on the Corniche).

• Despite the sluggish sales market in the first half of the year there is still a perceived lack of good quality mid-market product and, any launches targeting this segment should be well received.

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UAE Real Estate Report - H1 2016

8 © Asteco Property Management, 2016

Abu DhabiH1 2016 Highlights

Leasing Sales

Resi

dent

ial

high

light

s Apartments

• The second quarter of 2016 witnessed a remarkable change in the residential market. Job cuts implemented by a number of companies, mainly related to the oil and gas sector, have now revealed their effects.

• The apartment rental market saw an overall drop of 3% since the beginning of the year, with prime and high-end units having decreased by 3% and 4% respectively with a notable decrease in demand for three and four bedroom apartments units. In comparison, an increase in demand for smaller units (studio, one bedroom, and small two bedroom units) was recorded.

• High quality projects located within Investment Zones (Al Raha Beach, Reem and Saadiyat Islands) witnessed high activity levels, with a significant number of tenants either moving out or downsizing to smaller units.

• At the lower end of the market, rental rates were relatively stable with a slight decrease of 1% for vacant units.

• Overall, vacancy levels were on the rise over the last six months, especially for larger units, whereas there appears to be a shortfall of smaller affordable units.

Villas

• A similar trend was noted for villas, despite a slower rate of decline of 1%, on average, over the same period.

• Vacancy rates were up and demand for higher priced units was lower than usual.

• In terms of additional new supply, the Nalaya Villas in Najmat Abu Dhabi on Reem Island were handed over. The project is offering three to five bedroom villas for rent ranging from AED 320,000 to AED 450,000 per year.

Apartments

• The last six months were quiet with transaction levels considerably lower than last year.

• Whilst the previous year was characterised by a lack of available supply in areas such as Al Raha Beach or Reem Island, a slight increase in availability was noted this year as some owners put their units back on to the market.

• However, asking rates are still relatively high, with only a 2% average decline noted throughout the market.

• Overall, sales prices in Abu Dhabi are still considered high compared with the rest of the country, with even the more ‘affordable’ options being out of reach to a large majority of residents.

Villas

• Similarly, the villa sales market was slow in H1 2016 with sales prices down, on average, by 2% over the period. This was due to the generally negative market sentiment as well as the perception that units in better developments are still over-priced.

• Affordable products, such as townhouses in Al Ghadeer and Al Reef recorded no change in rates, and good demand levels were recorded especially for the latter.

• Buyers for villas in Abu Dhabi continued to be predominantly investors rather than end-users. Investors with properties achieving high rental rates preferred to hold on to their units rather than sell them at a discount in a market with limited demand.

• With the exception of some projects located on Yas Island, transaction levels were slow for off-plan stock even though some developers were willing to offer extended payment plans or guaranteed returns to stimulate demand.

Offi

ce

high

light

s • Offices in some good quality buildings with high vacancies recorded a slight decrease in rental rates. However, the majority of good quality and well located buildings offering sufficient parking space still achieved their highest rates and maintained close to full occupancy levels.

• As demand for large offices decreased significantly, several of the newer buildings on the market subdivided space into smaller units to meet market demand. These smaller units were offered at similar rates to whole floor space and subsequently led to some take up, especially during the second quarter of 2016.

• Office buildings with limited parking spaces were the most severely affected by low demand; with rental rates in some of the better quality new buildings with inadequate parking ranging from AED 750 to AED 900 per square metre.

Supply completedin H1 2016

800 Apartments

50 Villas andTown houses

5,500 sq m Office Space (BUA)

The Abu Dhabi market continued to witness a correction phase, with residential sales and rental rates having slightly decreased. Nevertheless, rates in Abu Dhabi remained higher, on average, than in any other emirate in the UAE.

Selection of projects completed in H1 2016

RESIDENTIAL • Reem Island: Nalaya Villas – 42 Villas• Reem Island: Wave Tower – 229 Units• Danet Abu Dhabi: Al Falahi Tower – 250 Units• Danet Abu Dhabi: Al Fardan Tower – 231 Units• Al Maryah Island: Four Seasons

Private Residences – 71 Units COMMERCIAL• Airport Road: Bloom Central Offices

& Serviced Apartments

Page 9: A historic review and outlook since 2008 UAE Real Estate Report · 2016-08-29 · A historic review and outlook since 2008 UAE Real Estate Report. UAE Real Estate Report - H1 2016

UAE Real Estate Report - H1 2016

9© Asteco Property Management, 2016

Abu DhabiH2 2016 Outlook

Leasing Sales

Resi

dent

ial

high

light

s • Asteco anticipates a significant movement in the rental market as residents become more budget conscious and downsize to smaller or more affordable units. There may be a steady outflow of residents if job cuts continue or an emerging trend where expatriate family members are sent back to their home country and the main breadwinner remains in the Emirate.

• This is likely to put further pressure especially on larger units where rental rates could soften further.

• Smaller units in more desirable locations or buildings could see a slight surge in rental rates as demand is strong in this segment.

• As individual landlords become conscious of losing tenants, their willingness to renegotiate rental rates upon renewal is expected to increase.

• Mid to low quality buildings located inside Abu Dhabi city, which witnessed no declines over the last six months, could also see rates come under pressure, especially for the larger units.

• We expect more units to appear on the market, which could lead to good investment opportunities becoming available. This would predominantly be cash-rich investors keen to purchase property instead of keeping their money in the bank, where returns are currently low.

• Sales prices for mid quality projects, such as the Al Reef units are expected to remain stable.

• Owner-occupiers are less likely to enter the property market at this time as sales rates remain high and job security concerns are still omnipresent, especially in the oil and gas sector.

Offi

ce

high

light

s • The office market is expected to remain stable in the second half of the year, with no major decrease in rental rates. However, some office buildings will see more activity coming from established companies either downsizing or upgrading and taking advantage of competitive rates currently on offer.

• New prime office projects should be handed over by end of 2016, which will increase vacancy rates especially in older and poorer quality buildings.

• Office sales are unlikely to pick up due to limited quality supply available in the market and low rental rates, making potential yields unattractive at this point in time.

Supply expectedin H2 2016

250 Apartments

650 Villas andTown houses

150,000 sq m Office Space (BUA)

The Abu Dhabi real estate sector is highly dependent on government initiatives and therefore, if budget cuts continue as planned, vacancy rates are expected to increase leading to pressure on rental rates. At the same time, negative market sentiment is likely to lead to limited purchases from owner-occupiers in both the residential and commercial sectors.

Selection of projects expected in H2 2016

RESIDENTIAL• Saadiyat Island – Hidd Al Saadiyat

Phase 1 – 488 Villas • Saraya, Corniche: Aabar Tower – 229 Units• Baniyas: Bawabbat Al Sharq Phase 2 – 153 Villas

COMMERCIAL • Maryah Island: Al Hilal Bank Headquarters• Corniche: ADNOC Headquarters• Airport Road: ADIB Headquarters

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UAE Real Estate Report - H1 2016

-4% -4%Abu Dhabi Apartment Rental Rates

TYPE 1BR 2BR 3BR

YEAR 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 H1 2016 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 H1

2016 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 H1 2016

PRIME PROPERTIES

Abu Dhabi Island - - - - 125 125 125 128 125 - - - - 156 165 175 191 184 - - - - 230 235 265 275 265

Investment Areas - - - 120 130 130 140 145 145 - - - 165 165 165 180 193 193 - - - 220 250 255 255 275 265

HIGH END PROPERTIES

Abu Dhabi Island Central Abu Dhabi 165 110 90 80 85 85 90 95 95 250 140 140 130 110 135 145 150 150 290 175 175 160 130 165 175 177 174

Corniche 185 135 120 95 85 105 120 120 112 280 160 160 155 125 135 150 153 151 365 240 240 225 180 225 245 243 228

Khalidya / Bateen 185 135 120 90 85 105 120 123 115 280 160 160 140 125 155 160 168 151 365 230 230 190 155 210 215 213 201

Investment Areas Al Raha Beach - - 110 110 100 100 110 115 113 - - 155 145 140 150 155 161 159 - - 205 200 185 190 200 205 205

Marina Square - - - - 80 85 100 105 101 - - - - 110 130 140 148 139 - - - - 140 170 175 185 180

Saadiyat Beach - - - - - 110 120 130 123 - - - - - 150 175 179 176 - - - - - 190 210 233 224

Shams Abu Dhabi - - - 95 95 110 115 115 106 - - - 130 130 150 155 154 149 - - - 165 165 170 195 193 180

MID & LOWER END PROPERTIES

Abu Dhabi Island Central Abu Dhabi 145 85 70 60 55 70 75 76 75 215 120 100 80 100 100 105 103 103 265 145 145 110 90 140 145 148 140

Corniche 155 120 95 80 70 80 80 86 86 225 145 145 120 100 105 120 125 121 325 175 175 155 130 155 170 165 158

Khalidya / Bateen 155 120 100 75 65 80 80 81 81 225 130 130 95 90 110 120 121 115 325 170 170 125 110 135 145 146 142

Investment Areas Reef Downtown - - - - 60 70 80 83 83 - - - - 75 85 100 104 104 - - - - 90 100 130 130 129

Off Island MBZ & Khalifa City A - 75 55 40 40 60 65 70 70 - 90 60 45 45 85 90 95 95 - 115 80 70 65 110 120 126 125

Average 165 111 95 85 83 94 101 105 102 246 135 131 121 113 130 141 146 142 323 179 178 162 148 175 189 194 187

Annual % Change - -32% -15% -11% -2% 14% 8% 4% -3% - -45% -3% -8% -6% 15% 8% 4% -3% - -45% -1% -9% -9% 18% 8% 3% -4%

% Change since peak (2008) -38% -42% -42%

% Change since market low (2012) 24% 26% 27%

-2% -2%

H1 2016 % change

High End Apartments

Prime Apartments

Mid & Lower End

Apartments(All figures in AED 000’s pa)

Page 11: A historic review and outlook since 2008 UAE Real Estate Report · 2016-08-29 · A historic review and outlook since 2008 UAE Real Estate Report. UAE Real Estate Report - H1 2016

UAE Real Estate Report - H1 2016

Abu Dhabi

Abu Dhabi Villa Rental Rates

TYPE 3BR 4BR 5BR

YEAR 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 H1 2016 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 H1

2016 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 H1 2016

Khalidiya / Bateen 395 275 235 210 190 185 185 185 185 460 290 310 225 230 240 230 225 213 530 325 330 280 255 270 245 240 230

Mushrif / Karama / Manaseer 390 235 220 180 170 195 180 170 170 455 270 260 230 210 190 190 185 185 535 315 345 260 240 250 265 255 250

Khalifa A & B 360 190 155 125 100 130 135 133 133 400 205 180 150 135 170 150 150 150 445 255 220 180 170 185 180 180 175

Al Raha Gardens 380 205 185 175 165 175 190 193 193 420 230 210 210 200 210 243 245 243 475 240 260 270 270 285 290 290 290

Golf Gardens - - 265 240 190 210 225 225 225 - - 200 285 260 255 260 260 259 - - 345 335 340 325 325 325 321

Al Reef - - 115 130 105 120 135 145 145 - - 140 155 125 150 160 168 168 - - 165 175 150 170 190 190 190

Saadiyat Beach - - - - 275 295 295 310 310 - - - - 305 295 330 375 375 - - - - 400 400 400 450 450

Al Raha Beach - - - - 220 250 250 255 248 - - - - 300 255 255 263 258 - - - - - 320 320 320 318

Hydra Village - - - - 90 90 103 103 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Average 378 233 202 173 168 177 178 180 180 433 257 224 203 208 214 214 219 216 504 285 278 244 253 263 276 267 263

Annual % Change - -38% -13% -14% -3% 6% 0% 2% 0% - -41% -13% -9% 2% 3% 0% 2% -1% - -43% -2% -12% 3% 4% 5% -3% -2%

% Change since peak (2008) -52% -50% -48%

% Change since market low (2011) 4% 6% 7%

Abu Dhabi Office Rental RatesTYPE OFFICE

YEAR 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 H1 2016

RECENT BUILDING

Prime Fitted* 320 179 156 135 111 114 111 118 116

Prime Shell & Core - - 125 107 91 91 91 95 93

OLDER STOCK

Good Quality 228 154 111 98 81 79 79 79 79

Typical 135 129 93 65 65 65 67 67 67

Average 228 154 121 101 87 87 87 90 83

Annual % Change - -32% -21% -16% -14% 0% 0% 3% -8%

% Change since peak (2008) -64%

% Change since market low (2012) -5%

-2% 0%

Prime Grade A Offices

Standard Offices

(All figures in AED 000’s pa)

(All figures in AED per ft2 pa)

-1%

Villa

H1 2016 % change

* Includes developments such as Al Maryah Island, Aldar Head Quarters, International Tower, Nation Towers, Ittihad Towers, Capital Plaza, Capital Gate, etc.

Page 12: A historic review and outlook since 2008 UAE Real Estate Report · 2016-08-29 · A historic review and outlook since 2008 UAE Real Estate Report. UAE Real Estate Report - H1 2016

UAE Real Estate Report - H1 2016

12 © Asteco Property Management, 2016

Abu Dhabi Apartment Sales Prices

Abu Dhabi Villa Sales Prices

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 H1 2016

AED

per

ft2

2,00

0

1,02

5

1,02

5

1,00

0

965

1,17

5

1,37

5

1,37

5

1280

Marina Square

1,75

0

1,35

0

1,30

0

1,22

5

1,10

0

1,42

5

1,65

0

1,70

0

1,70

0 Raha Beach / Al Bandar

1,75

0

1,10

0

900

975

925

1,17

5

1,42

5

1,50

0

1,50

0

Raha Beach / Al Muneera

1,75

0

1,10

0

900

1,01

5

930

1,17

5

1,20

0

1,30

0

1,32

5

Raha Beach / Al Zeina

1,17

5

1,47

5

1,50

0

1,40

0

The Gate

500

550

825

1,00

0

1,02

5

1,02

5

Reef Downtown

2,45

0

1,25

0

1,25

0

1,13

0

1,05

0

1,32

5

1,47

5

1,52

5

1,45

0

Sun & Sky Towers

AED

per

ft2

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 H1 2016

-2% -2%

Apartments Villas

1,19

0

900

825

770

730

890

1,11

5

1,11

5

1,08

2

Raha Gardens

1,20

0

860

850

810

770

870

1,02

0

1,02

0

989

Golf Gardens

950

600

560

520

540

745

845

836

819

Al Reef Villas

1,37

5

1,55

0

1,55

0

1,55

0

Saadiyat Beach Villas(Standard)

600

660

660

660

Hydra Village

H1 2016 % change

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UAE Real Estate Report - H1 2016

13© Asteco Property Management, 2016

Abu Dhabi

Abu Dhabi Area & Rent Affordability Map1 Al Bandar – Raha Beach2 Al Bateen Wharf3 Al Gurm4 Al Maqtaa5 Al Muneera – Al Raha Beach6 Al Nahyan Camp7 Al Raha Gardens8 Al Rayanna9 Al Reef10 Al Zeina – Al Raha Beach11 Baniyas12 Bateen Airport Area13 Bateen Area14 Bawabat Al Sharq15 Capital District (ADNEC)16 CBD / Tourist Club Area17 Corniche 18 Danet Abu Dhabi19 Eastern Mangroves20 Golf Gardens21 Hydra Village22 Khalidia / Al Hosn / Al Manhal23 Khalifa City A24 Khalifa City B25 Maryah Island26 MBZ City27 Mina28 Mushrif / Karama / Manaseer / Muroor29 Officer’s City30 Rawdhat Abu Dhabi31 Reem Island - Marina Square32 Reem Island – Najmat Abu Dhabi33 Reem Island – rest of Shams Abu Dhabi34 Reem Island – City of Lights35 Reem Island – The Gate District36 Rihan Heights37 Saadiyat Beach District38 The Hills

The following map highlights some of Abu Dhabi’s most popular residential areas, in terms of their affordability for rent or sale.

YASISLAND

11

33

2211

14

11

17

132

22

31

25

19

33

35

34

32

37

36

38

29

15

18

28

24

6

12

4

26

2320

8

1

7

10 9

5

30

27

16

3

21

Most Expensive

Expensive

Mid Priced

Affordable

Note: Area classification by affordability is provided for indicative purposes only as most areas in Abu Dhabi offer various types of residential units, from affordable to high end. As such, the map colour coding takes into account the most prevalent type of product and exceptions of a lower and / or higher price could be available.

Page 14: A historic review and outlook since 2008 UAE Real Estate Report · 2016-08-29 · A historic review and outlook since 2008 UAE Real Estate Report. UAE Real Estate Report - H1 2016

UAE Real Estate Report - H1 2016

14 © Asteco Property Management, 2016

DubaiHistoric Review & Outlook

Growth 2002-2008

Recession 2009-2011

• Since the Dubai Government permitted the ownership of property on a freehold/leasehold basis to non-GCC nationals in 2002, the overseas interest in the local market was exceptional and resulted in the launch of numerous development projects.

• Nakheel, Dubai Properties and Emaar established themselves as the dominant master developers in the market launching a range of villa and apartment projects across Dubai.

• However, the delivery of the properties in Dubai was slower than anticipated, which resulted in an undersupply causing both rental rates and sales prices to spiral out of control.

• Sales prices were further inflated due to rampant speculation in the market due to limited real estate laws being in place to curb the speculative market.

• The financial crisis at the end of 2008 resulted in significant job losses, defaults, distressed sales and consequently declining rental rates and sales prices.

• Residential sales prices and rental rates corrected sharply in 2009 and 2010 compounded by an increased supply and a subdued demand. There was also a noticeable movement with tenants from neighbouring emirates such as Abu Dhabi and Sharjah due to the decreased rental rates in Dubai.

• Sales activity remained subdued although transaction levels slowly picked up by 2011 when the market reached its low point.

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UAE Real Estate Report - H1 2016

15© Asteco Property Management, 2016

Dubai

Recovery & Growth 2012-2013

Market slow down 2014-2015

Residential market bottoming out H1 2016

Outlook H2 2016

• The market began to show signs of recovery in 2012. With the Euro Crisis and Arab Spring making Dubai an attractive and ’safe’ haven to invest and live.

• Established communities and quality buildings experienced increased demand whilst emerging developments saw increased take-up in line with improving infrastructure and connectivity.

• The increase in competitive finance options offered by banks also contributed to the overall increase in activity.

• Rent rapidly increased in 2013 and restricted tenants to move within Dubai and thus resulted in an increase in relocations to the Northern Emirates in search of lower rental accommodation.

• Transaction levels increased as job security and increased market confidence created demand for tenants to upgrade, and readily available finance stimulated home ownership.

• In 2013 Dubai was awarded to host Expo 2020 and this announcement saw an increase in new project launches near the Expo site whilst the DWC Airport masterplan experienced increased demand.

• In September 2013, the Government doubled the land registration fee to 4%, and new loan-to-value rules were introduced to limit property speculation.

• The market peaked in Q2 2014 and corrected thereafter due to a combination of factors such as, the doubling of the registration fee to 4%, the reduction in LTV’s, low oil prices and the US dollar being strong.

• This was especially marked for residential sales prices; however, rental rates remained broadly stable as the handover of new supply was slower than anticipated.

• Due to the substantial number of launches witnessed in 2013, 2014 and 2015, concerns of an oversupply of high end product led developers to focus predominantly on the mid and affordable housing sector.

• To try and stimulate the buyer’s interest, developers began offering incentives such as extended payment plans post completion, which potentially increased the risk of non-delivery due to insufficient funding.

• Because of a forecasted oversupply of residential properties in the market, developers, it appeared, had slowed the pace of project completions and handovers.

• The slowdown had a direct impact on rental rates, which dropped less than expected by 2%, on average, since the beginning of the year for apartments and less than 1% for villas.

• Rental demand, however, remained strong with a noteworthy tenant movement including downsizing, upgrades and moves to better value for money properties. One of the key trends noted during the second quarter was families making the decision to downsize to smaller units and send family members back to their home country as a cost saving measure.

• Furthermore, Asteco noted an overall increase in residential sales transactions by value, where bulk buyers and investors remained the main purchasers.

• The office sector, however, lagged behind the residential market as there was a reduction in transaction levels, sales prices and leasing rates. New supply intensified competition amongst landlords and the run up to summer and the holy month of Ramadan had its usual toll on deals closing.

• Whilst declines in values may still be recorded, these are likely to be marginal over the next six months; in addition to a possible increase in transaction volume as low prices unlock demand.

• Whilst bulk investments were predominant during the first 6 months of the year, Asteco expects an increase in single-unit buyers, especially for nearly completed or finished properties.

• Expo related investments allocated towards airport extensions, rail, transportation, tourism facilities and real estate could promote economic growth in 2017 and beyond.

• An increase in interest to purchase land was also noted in the first of half of the year, which could potentially indicate a pick-up in activity from developers going forward.

• Specifically, project launches related to the Dubai Water Canal, Dubai South and the Dubai Park areas could be announced and stimulate strong interest.

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UAE Real Estate Report - H1 2016

DubaiH1 2016 Highlights

Leasing Sales

Resi

dent

ial

high

light

s Apartments

• As predicted, rental performance was closely linked to the handover of supply, which slowed down considerably during the first half of the year. Overall rental rates decreased by a modest 2% during the period as only approximately 3,000 apartment units were handed over, which were mostly mid-range and affordable accommodation.

• Despite strong demand for smaller apartments, the delivery of new stock included a large majority of affordable studio to 2 bedroom units, pushed rental rates down by 4%, on average. In comparison, affordable 3 bedroom units recorded only half a percent decrease over the first half of 2016, as these units were in low supply.

• Larger units in the high and mid-end segment, however, witnessed declines of over 3%, on average. Tenants looked at reducing their costs by sending their families back to their home country and moving to a smaller unit. This trend was witnessed throughout the market for both freehold and leasehold areas.

• Private landlords were also willing to negotiate rental rates upon renewal in order to avoid tenants moving out, especially when discussions began months before tenancy contracts were due to expire. Many corporate landlords have been slow to negotiate amiable terms and thus led to a temporary increase in vacancy levels in select locations.

Villas

• Rental rates for villas recorded less than 1% decline over H1 2016 as limited new supply was handed over and occupancy rates improved in recently handed-over communities.

• A shift in demand was noted as tenants upgraded to better value-for-money units, for instance moving out of Al Furjan and in to Jumeirah Park, where larger units at a lower price were on offer.

Apartments

• Asteco noted an increase in interest from bulk investors, who were seeing value and potential in the market. This led to several large deals concluding.

• There also appeared to be a substantial amount of interest in Jumeirah Village from end users and investors. Buyers are seeing the community’s potential and attractiveness from a locational point of view in comparison to newer projects launched south of Mohamed Bin Zayed Road.

• Despite these increases in the number of transactions, prices continued to be under pressure in most communities, with an overall price reduction of 3% during H1 2016. These prices represent a 64% improvement since 2011, when they stood at below AED 800 per square foot, on average.

Villas

• Villa rates were broadly stable over the last 6 months, with an average increase of 0.3% recorded, the first since rates peaked in Q2 2014.

• The trend seen last year continued during the first half of 2016, whereby end-users, rather than investors, were the predominant buyers of villas and townhouses, with a clear preference for smaller 2, 3 and 4 bedroom units.

• Arabian Ranches and The Springs were the most transacted areas over the quarter, with Mudon recording strong levels of demand.

• Jumeirah Village Triangle ( JVT) townhouses saw a reduction in the number of transactions as competition from Mira, for instance, made the area seem less attractive. Indeed, Mira offered 3 bedroom townhouses from as low as AED1.2 Million, which is typically the price of a 1 bedroom townhouse in JVT.

Offi

ce

high

light

s • There was a marked reduction in lease deals completing during H1 2016, despite 8,000 new companies setting up, representing a 4.3% increase according to the Dubai Chamber of Commerce and Industry., Most of these were SME’s looking for small sized serviced offices.

• Rates were under pressure in most areas as landlords had to compete to attract tenants.

• Office sales remained slow during the first half of 2016, with Business Bay and Jumeirah Lake Towers topping the list in terms of transaction numbers.

• DIFC continued to attract a reasonable amount of interest as gross yields averaged over 10% due to a limited number of supply for the next two to three years thereby keeping rental rates high. This has been exacerbated with the DIFC authority enforcing the number of visas per area, which has led to several companies taking up more space.

Supply completedin H1 2016

2,177 Apartments

208 Villas andTown houses

156,064 sq m Office Space (BUA)

According to DLD data, whilst the number of residential transactions continued to decrease compared with figures at the end of 2015, the second quarter of 2016 picked up significantly by 15% for apartments and 14% for villas compared with the first quarter of the year. The figures, however, did remain below Q4 2015 levels, with the exception of the office market, which saw an increase of 9%.

Selection of projects completed in H1 2016

RESIDENTIAL Affordable• Arjan: Siraj Tower – 354 Units• Dubai Silicon Oasis: +/- 400 Units

Mid-End• Residential Complex: Ajmal

Sarah Tower – 274 Units• Dubai Sports City: Canal Residence

West – 240 Units

High-End• Jumeirah Golf Estates: Sienna Views,

Orange lakes – 103 Units• Palm Jumeirah - Osaimi Apartment – 256 units

COMMERCIAL• Business Bay: Capital Bay

Tower – 30,669 Sqm NLA• Business Bay: The Exchange – 6,500 Sqm• JLT: JLT One Tower – 27,067 sq m NLA16 © Asteco Property Management, 2016

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UAE Real Estate Report - H1 2016

17© Asteco Property Management, 2016

DubaiH2 2016 Outlook Supply expected

in H2 2016

15,178 Apartments

6,093 Villas andTown houses

772,500 sq m Office space (BUA)

Further delays in delivery are expected to keep rental rates relatively stable. At the same time, new project launches will continue throughout the year, especially towards Dubai South, the new airport and the Expo 2020 site. The handover of Dubai Entertainments LLC (previously Dubai Parks & Resorts) is also likely to drive substantial demand for corporate accommodation in the area.

Selection of projects expected in H2 2016

RESIDENTIAL Affordable• Dubai Silicon Oasis: 1,900 Units• Jumeirah Village: 590 units• Al Quoz- Al Khail Heights: 2,156 units

Mid-End• Al Furjan: 208 Units• Dubai Sports City: 346 units• Downtown - Rove Hotel: 420 units

High-End• Palm Jumeirah: 170 Units• Dubai Marina: 537 units

COMMERCIAL• Dubai Media City: The Butterfly – 23,698 sq m• Sheikh Zayed Road: Lamborghini

Building – 12,034 sq m

Leasing Sales

Resi

dent

ial

high

light

s • The trend witnessed in the first half of the year is expected to continue, with rates under moderate pressure. Albeit, this will largely depend on the timely delivery of new supply, which has already slowed down significantly.

• Landlords of single-owned buildings that have not yet reduced their asking rates and are faced with increasing vacancy levels will likely drop their rates, as dictated by the market.

• The summer months might see a further population shift as residents wait for the end of the school year to relocate.

• Demand for studio, one and affordable two bedroom units is likely to remain strong, with a potential increase in rates in some areas as occupancy levels improve.

• Demand in this segment could increase as requirements for corporate accommodation rise with the delivery of major tourism projects, such as the theme parks by Dubai Entertainments LLC.

• With bulk investors having entered the market in the first half of the year, single buyers/owner occupiers are expected to follow suit over the next few months when market sentiment improves.

• This could lead to further increase in transaction levels, although sales prices are unlikely to rise before the end of the year.

• Generally speaking, Asteco views prices to be close to bottoming out, with at most a 5% decline by year end. This appears to be a window of opportunity where buyers will be able to continue securing good deals for both completed and off plan products.

• As previously mentioned, smaller units will be preferred to larger units, with stable transaction levels for studio and 1 bedroom apartments as well as smaller 1, 2 and 3 bedroom townhouses and villas.

• Sales for large, premium units are likely to remain subdued during 2016.

• Interestingly, developers have been relooking at purchasing land, for which interest had dried up over the last year. With land rates relatively low, we expect transactions to conclude in areas closest to the new airport, as these are expected to be the new growth zones in the city.

Offi

ce

high

light

s • With rates already coming under pressure over the first half of the year, if any further reductions occur, they would only be for buildings that had not yet reduced their rates.

• Dubai Media City (DMC) free zone may be the exception in the market, as with limited vacancy and new supply handing over, rates could increase moderately. Current occupancy levels are at around 95% and The Edge building, which will be handing over soon, is nearly fully pre-leased.

• Sales rates appear to have reached a low point in 2016 and, as such, are unlikely to decline further, although an increase in transactions would be heavily reliant on an improved market sentiment.

• According to the IMF, the growth forecast for Dubai’s GDP over 2016 is expected to reach 3.7 % compared with 3.6% in 2015, which could indicate a slight economic improvement. This contrasts with Abu Dhabi, where growth estimates are significantly lower with a 1.7% GDP growth forecast (compared with 4.4% in 2015).

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UAE Real Estate Report - H1 2016

Dubai Apartment Rental Rates

TYPE 1BR 2BR 3BR

YEAR 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 H1 2016 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 H1

2016 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 H1 2016

HIGH TO LUXURY END

DIFC - - - 73 80 103 113 113 108 - - - 115 130 158 173 158 170 - - - 145 170 198 235 230 210

Downtown Dubai 133 85 70 68 80 98 118 115 110 185 120 100 100 125 160 170 175 170 275 165 150 150 180 228 245 240 245

Dubai Marina 130 78 63 63 75 105 113 98 98 180 110 90 80 100 140 158 143 140 245 160 125 115 135 178 210 205 195

Jumeirah Beach Residence 115 85 73 70 80 108 118 115 110 168 118 95 90 100 135 163 148 150 203 148 115 110 140 175 200 193 183

Palm Jumeirah 200 113 90 90 95 135 150 135 133 228 145 120 120 140 175 208 198 195 300 200 170 170 190 223 243 255 250

Sheikh Zayed Road 160 83 70 68 83 98 113 100 100 203 130 105 100 110 148 148 130 135 290 175 120 120 135 195 200 175 173

HIGH TO LUXURY END AVERAGE 148 89 77 75 88 112 123 113 110 193 125 113 108 124 151 167 158 160 263 170 143 141 175 194 215 216 209

MID TO HIGH END

Business Bay - - 55 45 60 90 93 93 95 - - 85 70 85 130 135 135 138 - - 115 100 125 178 180 185 185

Greens 120 65 58 55 65 85 83 95 98 160 88 78 75 100 135 148 143 133 180 130 115 105 130 155 173 175 173

Jumeirah Lakes Towers 110 65 50 45 55 83 90 90 83 160 85 65 65 75 110 133 125 120 210 118 85 85 100 148 168 153 140

MotorCity - - - 48 55 65 83 85 83 - - - 70 80 110 128 125 113 - - - 90 120 183 178 160 158

MID TO HIGH END AVERAGE 114 66 55 49 57 79 86 90 89 153 91 77 70 83 117 126 126 126 217 138 120 105 123 158 165 171 164

AFFORDABLE

Al Barsha 100 60 45 44 50 78 78 75 73 145 75 58 55 65 100 103 95 95 175 95 80 78 100 145 148 135 133

Bur Dubai 105 43 43 43 45 73 75 73 73 153 80 68 65 63 103 105 108 108 190 80 83 80 83 125 135 138 138

Deira 88 48 40 37 35 68 65 65 63 103 55 55 53 53 85 90 90 93 138 83 75 70 75 135 133 113 118

Discovery Gardens 100 58 45 38 45 70 70 72 68 135 85 70 53 70 83 80 80 85 - - - - - - - - -

Dubai Sports City - - - 35 40 59 65 74 68 - - - 45 55 88 98 105 98 - - - - - - - - 113

International City 70 44 27 23 24 43 46 50 50 93 63 39 38 38 65 63 65 65 - - - - - - - - -

Jumeirah Village - - - 35 45 70 65 73 60 - - - 53 70 95 103 105 98 - - - 80 90 120 130 138 145

AFFORDABLE AVERAGE 93 50 40 35 39 64 65 66 65 126 72 58 48 55 86 88 91 91 168 86 79 76 86 125 128 120 129

Average 118 68 57 53 61 85 91 91 89 157 96 82 75 87 118 127 125 126 216 131 114 107 128 159 169 169 167

Annual % Change - -42% -16% -7% 15% 39% 7% -2% -2% - -39% -14% -8% 16% 35% 7% -1% -1.5% - -39% -13% -6% 19% 24% 7% 0% -2.7%

% Change since peak (2008) -26% -20% -22%

% Change since market low (2011) 66% 67% 56%

(All figures in AED 000’s pa)

-2% -3%-2%

H1 2016 % change

High End Apartments

High-Luxury Apartments

Affordable Apartments

-2.5%

Page 19: A historic review and outlook since 2008 UAE Real Estate Report · 2016-08-29 · A historic review and outlook since 2008 UAE Real Estate Report. UAE Real Estate Report - H1 2016

UAE Real Estate Report - H1 2016

Dubai Office Rental Rates

Dubai

Dubai Villa Rental Rates

TYPE 3BR 4BR 5BR

YEAR 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 H1 2016 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 H1

2016 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 H1 2016

Al Barsha - - - 120 140 175 195 213 198 - - - 160 180 240 255 230 235 - - - 195 210 265 285 273 275

Arabian Ranches 275 140 125 125 155 213 215 203 203 335 180 160 160 220 285 300 243 240 425 265 250 250 285 365 343 303 303

Victory Heights - - - 150 155 205 195 180 178 - - - 165 180 220 250 215 210 - - - 220 275 320 313 318 305

Jumeirah 325 160 140 140 155 195 215 190 200 400 190 160 160 185 238 275 253 245 450 225 200 200 220 310 350 285 290

Jumeirah Park - - - - - 195 220 218 213 - - - - - 250 290 245 245 - - - - - 295 340 290 280

Jumeirah Village - - - 90 125 155 163 160 168 - - - 110 150 165 178 170 173 - - - 145 165 180 210 208 193

Meadows 325 180 180 180 210 230 238 233 228 350 240 200 200 225 250 275 260 260 425 265 225 225 265 285 310 283 290

Mirdif 240 100 80 80 90 138 133 138 130 260 120 110 105 115 165 155 160 153 275 165 125 125 140 175 175 175 170

Palm Jumeirah 375 270 275 275 325 350 355 333 350 550 340 315 315 400 495 485 420 398 800 450 450 450 500 723 725 675 665

Springs 250 125 105 105 140 163 195 180 185 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

The Lakes - - - 170 200 220 228 223 218 - - - 260 280 290 283 260 268 - - - 340 350 350 400 363 388

Umm Suqeim 325 160 140 135 160 215 250 195 198 400 190 160 160 180 290 275 260 255 490 230 210 210 220 313 305 290 280

Average 314 179 162 152 179 213 225 206 205 388 223 204 186 219 261 271 244 244 482 274 246 224 259 311 314 290 313

Annual % Change - -43% -9% -6% 18% 19% 5% -8% 0% - -43% -8% -9% 18% 19% 4% -10% -1.6% - -43% -10% -9% 15% 20% 1% 1% -1.2%

% Change since peak (2008) -34% -38% -41%

% Change since market low (2011) 36% 29% 28%

TYPE 1BR

YEAR 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 H1 2016

Bur Dubai 360 150 110 90 80 95 105 108 105

Business Bay - - - 75 70 100 103 88 95

DIFC 525 370 230 220 225 220 235 255 245

Dubai Investment Park 205 95 50 40 40 55 65 70 68

Jumeirah Lake Towers 235 100 60 50 50 90 95 98 93

Sheikh Zayed Road 425 215 160 140 140 175 180 185 185

Tecom C 350 105 75 60 55 85 100 110 100

Average 350 173 114 96 94 117 126 130 127

Annual % Change - -51% -34% -16% -2% 24% 8% 3% -2.5%

% Change since peak (2008) -64%

% Change since market low (2012) 35%

H1 2016 % change

(All figures in AED 000’s pa)

(All figures in AED per ft2 pa)

-1%

H1 2016 % change

-2.5%

Page 20: A historic review and outlook since 2008 UAE Real Estate Report · 2016-08-29 · A historic review and outlook since 2008 UAE Real Estate Report. UAE Real Estate Report - H1 2016

UAE Real Estate Report - H1 2016

20 © Asteco Property Management, 2016

Arabian Ranches

2,20

0 85

0 75

0 75

0 95

0 1,

225

1,00

0 1,

125

1,15

0

Dubai Sports City

1,50

0 85

0 75

0 75

0 90

0 1,

125

1,15

0 1,

160

1,25

0

Jumeirah Park

1,50

0 72

5 65

0 55

0 80

0 1,

175

1,11

0 1,

075

1,17

5

Jumeirah Village

1,10

0 60

0 50

0 47

5 55

0 85

0

950

900

975

Meadows

2,20

0 1,

000

850

850

1,00

0 1,

300

1,15

0 1,

150

1,35

0

Palm Jumeirah

2,75

0 1,

800

1,55

0 1,

500

1,80

0 3,

000

2,47

5 2,

450

2,85

0

Springs

1,80

0 85

0 65

0 65

0 90

0 1,

100

950

950

1,07

5

Business Bay

2,05

0 1,

000

750

700

900

1,22

5

1,21

0 1,

345

1,30

0

DIFC

2,70

0 1,

600

1,50

0 1,

300

1,35

0 1,

875

1,70

0 1,

650

1,87

5

Discovery Gardens

1,25

0 55

0 50

0 45

0 45

0 82

5

850

850

885

Downtown Dubai

2,70

0 1,

400

1,30

0 1,

100

1,30

0 2,

200

2,20

0 2,

000

2,32

5

Dubai Marina

1,80

0 1,

100

1,00

0 92

5 1,

050

1,90

0

1,60

0 1,

420

1,75

0

Greens

1,70

0 1,

050

825

775

950

1,40

0

1,36

5 1,

300

1,37

5

International City

1,05

0 50

0 42

5 3

25

350

67

5

688

700

710

JBR

2,00

0 1,

100

925

925

1,00

0 1,

525

1,37

0 1,

300

1,62

5

JLT

1,40

0 85

0 70

0 65

0 75

0 1,

200

1,15

0 1,

180

1,25

0

Jumeirah Village

1,10

0 60

0 50

0 47

5 50

0 87

5

938

940

925

Palm Jumeirah

2,80

0 1,

500

1,17

5 1,

100

1,40

0 2,

000

1,72

0 1,

620

2,00

0

Dubai Apartment Sales Prices

Dubai Villa Sales Prices

Dubai Office Sales Prices

AED

per

ft2

AED

per

ft2

AED

per

ft2

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 H1 2016

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 H1 2016 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 H1 2016

0%-3%

VillasApartments Offices

Business Bay

2,20

0 1,

250

900

750

700

975

1,25

0 1,

255

1,22

5

DIFC

4,25

0 1,

900

1,90

0 1,

800

1,70

0 1,

800

1,92

5 1,

900

1,87

5

Jumeirah Lake Towers

2,00

0 90

0 65

0 55

055

0 9

25

975

925

1,07

5

Tecom C

2,50

0 1,

100

850

750

750

825

975

920

975

-13%H1 2016 % change

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UAE Real Estate Report - H1 2016

21© Asteco Property Management, 2016

Dubai

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 H1 2016

Dubai Area & Rent Affordability Map1 Akoya2 Al Barari3 Al Furjan4 Al Nahda5 Al Qusais6 Al Warqaa7 Arabian Ranches8 Barsha9 Bur Dubai10 Business Bay11 Culture Village12 Deira13 DIFC14 Discovery Gardens15 Downtown Dubai16 Downtown Jebel Ali17 Dubai Creek18 Dubai Hills19 Dubai Investment Park20 Dubai Land

Residential Complex21 Dubai Marina22 Dubai Silicon Oasis23 Dubai Sports City24 Dubailand25 Emirates Hills26 Green Community27 IMPZ28 International City29 JBR30 Jumeirah31 Jumeirah Golf Estates32 Jumeirah Islands33 Jumeirah Park34 Jumeirah Village35 Jumeirah Lakes Towers36 Living Legends37 Liwan38 Maritime City39 Meydan40 Mirdif41 MotorCity

42 Mudon43 Muhaisnah44 Palm Jumeirah45 Remraam46 Residential City47 Rigga Al Buteen48 Sheikh Zayed Road49 Springs / Meadows50 Studio City51 Tecom C52 The Greens53 The Lakes54 The Villa55 Town Square56 Umm Suqeim57 Uptown Mirdiff58 Victory Heights

Note: Area classification by affordability is provided for indicative purposes only as many areas in Dubai offer various types of residential units, from affordable to high end. As such, the map colour coding takes into account the most prevalent type of product and exceptions of a lower and / or higher price could be available.

Most Expensive

Expensive

Mid Priced

Affordable

611

611

311

11

11

11

11

44

44

44

311

311

311

611

611

29

21

35

3

1433

8

56

26

16

31

46

19

2358

41

50

7

45

1

42

55

36 2

18

24

34

27

2254

37

20

28

57

40

44

52

25

53

49

32

51

15

39

10

309

38

13

48 12

47

4

5

6

43

11

17

To SharjahTo Abu Dhabi

Arabian Gulf

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UAE Real Estate Report - H1 2016

22 © Asteco Property Management, 2016

Northern EmiratesHistoric Review & Outlook

Growth 2002-2008

Recession 2009-2011

Recovery & Growth 2012-2013

Stabilisation 2014-2015

Highlights H1 2016

• Rising rents in Dubai led to a migration of many low to middle-income families and bachelors from Dubai to Sharjah and Ajman in search of comparatively lower rental rates, thereby causing rates to soar in these two Emirates.

• The emirates further north recorded strong growth, especially during 2008. Ras Al Khaimah recorded the highest apartment average rental growth of close to 50% from Q4 2007 to Q4 2008. This was due to an increased expatriate population on the back of a spurt in economic activity.

• Umm Al Quwain, which had the lowest rental rates in the Northern Emirates also benefited as rates were up close to 40% over the course of 2008.

• Rates in Sharjah and Ajman increased by close to 30% over the same period.

• Freehold properties, launched in Ajman and Ras Al Khaimah, took off rapidly as exponential price rises in Dubai and Abu Dhabi enticed buyers to these seemingly more affordable locations.

• As rental rates in neighboring Dubai declined rapidly, a large number of residents took the opportunity to leave the Northern Emirates and move back to Dubai to avoid the long commute.

• Leasing activity was slow and many of the new buildings that were delivered during this period stood empty.

• The whole of the Northern Emirates was in a period of recession for a longer period of time than Dubai and Abu Dhabi, from 2009 until middle of2013.

• With the exception of Ras Al Khaimah, which witnessed limited traction as a few of the master-planned communities actually had some completed products, the rest of the Northern Emirates witnessed hardly any sales activity.

• Rental rates in the Northern Emirates bottomed out in the second quarter of 2013. This was followed by a rapid growth in Sharjah and Ajman due to rental increases in Dubai.

• This growth also led to the recommencement of previously stalled projects, specifically in the areas closest to Dubai such as Al Nahda and Al Khan.

• On average, apartment rental growth was 24% year-on-year from Q1 2013 to Q1 2014, with the strongest growth witnessed in Sharjah (38%), Ras Al Khaimah (34%) and Ajman (29%).

• Villa sales in Ras Al Khaimah were also strong as good value for money options in comparison with Dubai were available.

• The office market however remained stagnant, recording only a 4% growth over the period, due to limited demand.

• The interdependence of the Dubai and Northern Emirate markets were apparent; the slowdown witnessed in Dubai had a direct effect on the rental rates in Sharjah & Ajman which saw no increases during the year.

• There were however some exceptions as some new properties handed over in Sharjah were able to charge above average market rates due to improved quality and facilities. Pricing was nonetheless competitive in comparison with Dubai.

• Overall, occupancy rates remained high during the years as only a few buildings were handed over.

• Overall, rental rates in the Northern Emirates remained broadly unchanged over the period, as rates in Dubai were stable.

• The office sector was the only one to show some improvements, as new stock handed over, led to internal movement from tenants upgrading. This however did not result in any rental increases.

Outlook H2 2016

• A number of buildings in Sharjah and Ajman are expected to be handed over in the remaining half of 2016, which could lead to a reduction in rates for older and poorer quality buildings as tenants upgrade to newer accommodation.

• The commercial market in Sharjah is also expected to see slight improvements as new supply enters the market, which will lead to an increase in tenant movement with the Emirate. Rental rates, however, are not expected to witness any growth due to an oversupply combined with a lack of demand.

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23© Asteco Property Management, 2016

Northern EmiratesHighlights and Outlook Supply completed

in H1 2016

• Al Qasimiyah: Al Marzouqi Towers - 176 units • Al Qasimiyah: CG mall- 74,000 sqft GLA

Selection of projects expected in H2 2016

• Al Nahda: Al Rayyan Complex – 504 Units• Al Khan: Pearl tower – 360 Units• Fujairah: Business Centre – 80,058 sqm BUA• Ajman: Al Zorah - Oberoi Resort – 113 Villas• Ajman: Al Zorah - Golf Villas – 42 Villas• Mina Al Arab: Flamingo Villas Phase 2: 68 Units

The first half of 2016 saw marginal declines in apartment rental rates throughout the Northern Emirates, which are expected to reduce further in the second half of 2016. Despite increasing by nearly 50% from its market low in 2011, residential rates in the Northern Emirates, on average are now 16% lower compared with its peak rates in 2008.

H1 2016 Highlights H2 2016 Outlook

Resi

dent

ial

high

light

s • During the first half of 2016, rental rates in Ajman and Fujairah remained stable whereas rates in Sharjah and Umm Al Quwain both saw marginal increases of 1% and Ras Al Khaimah recorded a decline of 1%.

• In Sharjah, an internal movement trend in Al Khan, Al Nahda and Al Tawuun was noticed as new annual rents were almost AED 2,000 to AED 3,000 lower compared to last year.

• The residential buildings in the newly handed over mixed-use development, Al Marzouqi Tower, in Al Qasimiah is nearly 75% occupied. A two bedroom unit with a size of 2,300 sqft can be rented out between AED 70,000 – AED 72,000 per annum.

• The Sharjah Municipality has doubled the rent contract attestation fee from 2% to 4% of the annual rent, which will be implemented as of 1 August 2016. This could put a break on tenant relocations and upgrades until rental rates drop further to make such a move worthwhile.

• According to the Ajman Real Estate Regulatory Agency (ARRA), approximately 3,000 residential units are expected to be delivered by the end of 2016 within 12 new freehold developments such as Paradise Lake Towers in Emirates City, which could lead to a reduction in rates. In addition, the first phase of the luxury Al Zorah development is expected to reach completion by the end of the year adding to the tourism industry. The development also includes 42 golf villas, which are due in the second half of 2016.

• The tourism industry in Sharjah, Fujairah, Ras Al Khaimah, and Ajman is developing rapidly. Several new residential and hotel developments are in the pipeline, which will continue to make those Emirates more attractive over time.

Offi

ce

high

light

s • For the first time since 2011 the commercial sector is seeing some changes with the handover of new office space in Al Qasimiah within the CG Mall complex. The tower comprises of both shell & core and semi fitted office space which can be rented starting from AED 65 per sqft. The attached CG Mall has Carrefour as the main anchor tenant whereas numerous retail outlets and coffee shops have now started fit-out.

• A new 32 million square foot mixed-use industrial development located in Al Arqoub has sold 80% of its plots in the first two phases according to Sharjah Investment Centre (SIC) which shows positive interest from investors in the industrial sector of the Emirate in long term.

• The commercial market in Sharjah is expected to see more interest from tenants as new good quality supply was handed over at the beginning of the year. However, as vacancy increases in older buildings, a reduction in rates could be witnessed in the second half of 2016.

• Fujairah Business Centre, by Taif Investment, comprising of an office tower and a 228 room Marriott Hotel is also expected to reach completion in 2017.

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24 © Asteco Property Management, 2016

3%Northern Emirates

Sharjah Apartment Rental Rates Sharjah Office Rental Rates

Northern Emirates Rental Rates

5% 1%

Ras Al Khaimah Apartments

Ajman Apartments

Sharjah Offices

(All figures in AED 000’s pa)

(All figures in AED 000’s pa) (All figures in AED per ft2 pa)

TYPE 1BR 2BR 3BR

YEAR 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 H1 2016 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2014 H1

2016 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2014 H1 2016

Ajman 42 30 26 25 22 27 29 32 32 47 33 28 27 26 35 39 35 35 66 49 40 40 38 45 50 51 49

Fujairah 39 24 23 23 23 30 32 43 41 49 30 29 30 30 38 43 49 50 59 45 40 42 40 47 50 64 65

Sharjah Typical 44 32 24 23 23 29 31 33 31 63 41 32 30 33 37 37 36 37 76 51 42 40 44 52 54 52 52

Sharjah New 44 32 24 23 25 35 39 39 38 63 41 32 30 36 51 58 56 56 76 51 42 40 48 70 73 70 68

RAK Typical 43 30 26 23 22 29 33 38 35 55 35 32 31 28 38 39 40 40 65 49 43 40 38 47 50 50 50

RAK New 43 30 26 23 33 45 45 38 45 55 35 32 31 55 60 63 60 60 65 49 43 40 80 93 110 100 98

Umm Al Quwain 37 21 20 20 20 20 22 38 23 48 30 28 28 27 27 29 30 32 53 40 38 38 38 38 40 40 40

Average 42 28 24 23 24 31 33 37 35 54 35 30 29 33 41 44 44 44 66 48 41 40 46 56 61 61 60

Annual % Change - -32% -16% -6% 5% 28% 7% 12% -5% - -35% -14% -3% 13% 22% 7% 0% 1% - -27% -14% -3% 16% 21% 9% 0% -1%

% Change since peak (2008) -16% -19% -8%

% Change since market low (2011) 55% 50% 51%

TYPE OFFICES

YEAR 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 H1 2016

Al Taawun Road 130 70 60 53 50 48 48 48 48

Corniche Area 150 70 60 55 55 63 68 63 63

Al Wahda Street 100 50 45 48 48 50 53 50 50

Mina Road 100 50 45 48 48 50 50 50 50

Al Qasemeh 110 50 45 45 45 43 43 43 45

Clock R/A 100 50 45 45 45 45 45 45 45

Al Yarmook 100 50 45 45 45 40 40 40 40

Industrial Area 100 50 45 53 50 50 50 45 45

Average 111 55 49 49 48 48 49 48 48

Annual % Change - -51% -11% 0% -1% 1% 2% -3% -

% Change since peak (2008) -57%

% Change since market low (2012)

0%

-1%

Sharjah Apartments

TYPE 1BR 2BR 3BR

YEAR 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 H1 2016 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 H1

2016 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 H1 2016

Al Majaz 45 35 28 23 23 32 40 41 38 65 43 33 31 32 45 53 58 56 75 58 47 38 45 68 75 73 69

Al Qasimiah 40 29 23 23 23 34 38 33 31 60 41 30 29 31 43 45 39 36 70 57 47 42 40 55 58 55 58

Al Nahda 45 35 29 28 27 36 41 44 40 64 41 33 30 32 48 55 55 55 80 58 47 45 46 60 75 73 68

Al Khan (Al Mamzar) 45 35 29 29 28 34 42 39 40 65 41 35 33 33 44 53 63 61 80 58 47 45 43 63 78 80 80

Abu Shagara 40 29 24 22 20 31 34 32 34 62 41 32 27 25 34 42 42 43 70 49 40 34 32 50 53 54 53

Al Yarmook 37 29 24 23 20 23 24 26 26 52 34 30 29 24 28 28 28 28 65 44 38 36 33 48 48 48 48

Al Wahda 40 29 23 23 23 34 39 39 39 61 41 31 29 31 45 50 57 49 70 48 40 38 42 63 68 65 65

Corniche 48 35 30 28 26 37 48 48 44 63 45 40 40 41 60 65 64 64 75 58 50 54 55 73 80 78 83

Mina Road 40 29 23 23 20 29 34 34 34 62 40 32 31 25 38 39 39 39 75 55 50 50 39 48 53 53 53

Average 42 30 25 23 22 29 35 34 36 62 39 32 30 29 39 44 45 48 73 51 42 40 39 54 59 58 64

Annual % Change - -28% -19% -5% -4% 31% 19% -2% -2% - -36% -19% -6% -3% 35% 13% 2% -1% - -31% -16% -6% -3% 39% 8% -1% 0%

% Change since peak (2008)

-21% -28% -21%

% Change since market low (2012)

50% 53% 49%

H1 2016 % change

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UAE Real Estate Report - H1 2016

25© Asteco Property Management, 2016

Northern Emirates

Marjan Island

2

Arabian Gulf

311

11

11

11

5

1

10

8

9

3

2

6

4

7

Northern Emirates Area Map

ABU DHABI

DUBAI

SHARJAH FUJAIRAH

RAS AL KHAIMAHUMM AL QUWAIN

AJMAN

SHARJAH

1 Abu Shagara2 Al Khan3 Al Majaz4 Al Nahda5 Al Qasimiyah6 Al Taawun7 Al Wahda8 Corniche / Buhaira9 Khaledia10 King Faisal & King Abdul Aziz Streets

Mina Al Arab

Marjan Island

1

Al Hamra

3

RAS AL KHAIMAH

1 Mina Al Arab2 Marjan Island3 Al Hamra

UNITED ARAB EMIRATES

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UAE Real Estate Report - H1 2016

Al AinHistoric Review & Outlook

Growth 2002-2008

Recession 2009-2011

Recovery & Growth 2012-2014

Stabilisation 2015

Highlights H1 2016

• A period of growth for the overall Al Ain real estate market as demand increased for office and residential units.

• As a consequence of a rapid increase in residential rental rates in Dubai and Abu Dhabi, rental rates in Al Ain also witnessed an increase due to a large number of residents moving to lower priced units in Al Ain.

• The residential sector saw a rapid drop in rental rates by early 2009 that continued to the end of 2012.

• Apartment and villa rental rates decreased by 46% and 29% respectively, from their highest rates in 2008 to the end of 2012

• The office sector followed a different trend as rental rates continued to increase till 2010, declining thereafter. This was due to a general lack of supply at the time.

• Overall, the Al Ain market saw a remarkable growth during this period especially in the residential sector.

• The new delivery of quality villa projects led to high demand that affected rental rates positively, increasing by 25% on average from 2012 to 2013. Apartment rental growth was however slower, recording only 9% increases over the same period.

• However, office rates continued to decrease due to the delivery of new office supply, which affected occupancy rates on existing low quality stock; a large percentage of these were located in commercial villas.

• The UAE ‘s overall market conditions has been under pressure due to low oil prices, which has led to a reduction in government spending, and thus a slowdown in the overall Al Ain real estate market.

• Apartment and villa rental rates increased by 3% and 10%, respectively, over the period.

• The Al Ain market was relatively stable in the first half of the year recording low market activity in the residential and office sectors. The second quarter was slower than usual due to several companies having cut jobs. This put pressure on market demand, especially for large higher priced units. However, this pressure was marginal as average rental rates for the majority of good quality residential stock remained unchanged.

Outlook H2 2016

• The effects of the market slowdown is expected to become more apparent in the second half of the year due to a general slowdown in demand, especially for more expensive units. Demand for smaller office space could pick up, as companies also seek to cut costs.

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UAE Real Estate Report - H1 2016

27© Asteco Property Management, 2016

Al Ain Highlights and Outlook Supply completed

in H1 2016RESIDENTIAL• 4 buildings in Town Centre - 50 apartments• 3 buildings in Asharaj - 30 apartments

Selection of projects expected in H2 2016RESIDENTIAL• 6 buildings in Town Centre - 100 apartments• 4 buildings in Ashara - 35 apartments• Al Ain Stadium Mixed Use Development -

800 apartments (2016 or 2017)

COMMERCIAL• 6 to 7 buildings in Town Centre,

with 2,000 sqm Office BUA

The Al Ain market was overall relatively stable, however, the main changes witnessed this year was the increase in demand for apartments versus a decrease in demand for villa units. Furthermore, demand for high quality office space decreased as companies looked for low rental rate spaces.

H1 2016 Highlights H2 2016 Outlook

Resi

dent

ial h

ighl

ight

s • Rental rates for apartments were relatively stable with a slight decrease of 1% recorded in the second quarter. However, demand for smaller units increased over the period.

• The villa rental market followed a negative trend since the end of 2015, and has continued to record a decline, on average, of 7% in H1 2016.

• Contrary to the apartment sector, small villa units saw the highest decrease, as three bedroom units located in Town Centre, Al Khabisi and Al Muwaiji decreased by 12%.

• However, it should be noted that the Al Ain market is characterised by tenant’s preference for larger villa units.

• The residential market in the later half of the year is expected to be similar to H1 2016.

• The villa market will likely remain under pressure, especially for smaller units, which are usually occupied by expatriates, who are more than willing to move to a more affordable apartment.

• However, the expected decrease will not be significant especially in the short term.

• Residential apartments in the Hazza Bin Zayed Stadium development are expected for handover during the second half of the year.

Offi

ce h

ighl

ight

s • The office market was also quiet in H1 2016; although the demand was low, rental rates remained stable.

• However, smaller sized offices remained the most in demand, especially since several companies have downsized.

• The Al Ain office market is expected to remain stable; however, it is likely to see increased activity as companies relocate to smaller office space.

• Rental rates for large office units are likely to come under pressure, at least in the short term.

• Around 2,000 sqm of office space is expected to enter the market by the end of 2016, mainly in the form of low rise, mid quality, buildings located in Town Centre and Al Senaya areas.

Mar

ket

chan

ges • Retail rental rates were stable in the first half of the year and positive

demand was witnessed for new developments.

• Overall, the retail market is performing well especially in good quality shopping centres. Prime shopping centres achieved, on average, AED 2,225 per sqm per annum whereas strip retail demand continued to be low with minimal market activity.

• The retail market will likely remain stable and demand for quality retail in malls is likely to be positive, especially as no major retail supply is expected for H2 2016.

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28 © Asteco Property Management, 2016

850

1,05

0

1,15

0

1100

975

850

800

800

850

950

1,00

0

1,12

5

1,07

5

925

850

800

800

850

950

950

1,15

0

1,10

0

975

850

800

800

850

800

800

900

900

550

500

500

500

500

0%-2%Al Ain

Villa Rental Rates

Office Rental Rates

Apartment Rental Rates-4%

VillasApartments Offices

(All figures in AED 000’s pa)

(All figures in AED 000’s pa)

TYPE 3BR 4BR 5BR

YEAR 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 H1 2016 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 H1

2016 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 H1 2016

MATURE UNITS

Town Centre 70 60 60 55 50 65 83 78 73 95 80 75 70 65 75 95 90 90 95 90 90 85 85 105 125 122 122

Others * 70 60 60 55 50 65 83 78 73 85 75 75 70 65 75 95 90 90 95 90 90 85 85 105 125 122 122

Zaker 65 55 55 50 45 65 75 75 73 75 70 70 65 60 75 75 75 80 85 75 85 80 80 105 105 105 105

Al Towaya 75 65 65 60 50 70 80 80 80 85 80 80 80 65 85 95 93 93 100 95 95 95 85 110 125 115 115

Al Jimi 70 60 60 55 50 65 83 78 73 85 75 75 70 65 75 95 90 90 95 90 90 85 85 105 125 122 122

NEW UNITS

Town Centre 115 95 80 65 65 75 88 83 78 125 115 100 90 85 100 110 105 105 140 135 125 110 105 130 155 145 135

Others * 115 95 80 65 65 75 88 83 78 120 115 100 90 85 100 110 105 105 140 135 125 110 105 130 155 145 135

Zaker 105 85 65 55 50 75 80 80 78 115 95 90 85 75 100 98 98 98 135 100 115 105 90 130 128 128 128

Al Towaya 110 105 85 70 65 80 93 93 93 130 125 105 100 85 105 110 105 105 140 135 130 120 105 135 160 150 150

Al Jimi 120 95 80 65 65 75 88 83 78 120 115 100 90 85 100 110 105 105 140 135 125 110 105 130 155 145 135

Average 92 78 69 60 56 71 84 81 77 104 95 87 81 74 89 100 96 96 117 108 107 99 93 119 136 130 127

Annual % Change - -15% -11% -14% -7% 28% 18% -4% -5% - -9% -8% -7% -9% 21% 12% 12% 0% - -7% -1% -8% -6% 27% 15% -4% -2%

% Change since peak (2008) -16% -7% 9%

% Change since market low (2012) 39% 31% 36%

TYPE AVERAGE APARTMENT RENTAL RATES

YEAR 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 H1 2016

MATURE UNITS

1BR 50 35 25 23 23 29 33 33 33

2BR 70 55 45 43 35 39 43 45 45

3BR 90 75 60 53 48 51 53 56 54

NEW UNITS

1BR 60 50 38 28 28 32 38 38 37

2BR 75 65 58 45 45 45 48 50 47

3BR 95 85 73 55 58 63 65 68 67

Average 73 61 50 41 40 43 47 49 47

Annual % Change - -17% -18% -17% -4% 9% 8% 4% -4%

% Change since peak (2008) -36%

% Change since market low (2012) 19%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 H1 2016

AED

per

ft2 p

a

Khalifa Street Aud Al Touba Street Main Street Senaya Street

H1 2016 % change

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UAE Real Estate Report - H1 2016

29© Asteco Property Management, 2016

Al Ain

Al Ain Area Map

Town Centre

Al Jimi

Al Khabisi

Al Muwaiji

Al Masoudi

Zaker

Al Towaya

East Airport District

Al Foaa

Hili

Al Oattara

Al Buraimi

Al Mutaredh

Al Jahili

AlMutawa’a

Al Sarooj

Al Shuwaimah

Aflaj

Al KhrairDefence

Al Dhahir Um GhafahJebel Hafeet

NeimaAl Qisais

Al Shuaibah

Al Aqabiyya

Zoo District

Falaj Hazza’a

Asharej

Al Markhaniya

Al Dahmaa

Al Bateen

Al Maqam

Gharebah

Al Salamat District

Al Yahar South

Al Yahar North

Al AinInternational

Airport

SULTANATE OF OMAN

Khalifa Bin Zayed St.

Khalifa Bin Zayed St.

Moh

d Bi

n Kh

alifa

St

Baniyas St

Ardh

Jow

St

Emira

tes

St

Zayed Bin Sultan St.

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UAE Real Estate Report - H1 2016

30 © Asteco Property Management, 2016

VALUATION & ADVISORYOur professional advisory services are conducted by suitably qualified personnel all of whom have had extensive real estate experience within the Middle East and internationally.

Our valuations are carried out in accordance with the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) and International Valuation Standards (IVS) and are undertaken by appropriately qualified valuers with extensive local experience.

The Professional Services Asteco conducts throughout the region include:

• Consultancy and Advisory Services• Market Research• Valuation Services

SALESAsteco has established a large regional property sales division with representatives based in the UAE, Qatar and Jordan. Our sales teams have extensive experience in the negotiation and sale of a variety of assets.

LEASINGAsteco has been instrumental in the leasing of many high-profile developments across the GCC.

ASSET MANAGEMENTAsteco provides comprehensive asset management services to all property owners, whether a single unit (IPM) or a regional mixed use portfolio. Our focus is on maximising value for our Clients.

OWNERS ASSOCIATIONAsteco has the experience, systems, procedures and manuals in place to provide streamlined comprehensive Association Management and Consultancy Services to residential, commercial and mixed use communities throughout the GCC Region.

SALES MANAGEMENTOur Sales Management services are comprehensive and encompass everything required for the successful completion and handover of units to individual unit owners.

LICENSINGOur brand, network, system and procedures are now available in territories across the MENA region. Our Licensing services currently include Real Estate Brokerage Franchising and associated support services with many of the key elements designed specifically around the franchisee, making it a truly unique and bespoke franchise opportunity.

The Middle East’s largest full service real estate consultancy company, Asteco was formed in Dubai in 1985. Over the years, Asteco has gained enormous respect for consistently delivering high quality, professional, value-added services in a transparent manner. It is also widely recognised for its involvement with many of the projects that have defined the landscape and physical infrastructure of the Emirates.

Asteco has an essential combination of local knowledge and international expertise. A deeply established brand, renowned for its application of the latest technological advances, its commitment to transparency, winning strategies and human expertise. Undisputed real estate experts, Asteco represents a significant number of the region’s top property owners, developers and investors.

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UAE Real Estate Report - H1 2016

31© Asteco Property Management, 2016

John Stevens, BSc MRICSManaging Director/Director, Asset Services+971 600 54 [email protected]

Sean McCauley, MBA BComDirector, Agency Services+971 600 54 [email protected]

Julia Knibbs, MScAssociate Director, Research & Advisory+971 600 54 [email protected]

James Joughin, BSc (Hons) MRICSAssociate Director, Valuation +971 600 54 [email protected]

John Allen, BSc MRICSDirector, Valuation & Advisory+971 600 54 [email protected]

Omar Binder, BA (Hons)Director, Licensing Services+971 600 54 [email protected]

Ghada Amhaz, MBAResearch & Consultancy Manager, Abu Dhabi+971 2 626 [email protected]

Tamer Ibrahim ChaabanBranch Manager, Al Ain+971 3 [email protected]

Zahra Alvi, MScResearch Analyst+971 600 54 [email protected]

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UAE Real Estate Report - H1 2016

DISCLAIMER: The information contained in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources that Asteco Property Management believes to be reliable, however, no warranty or representation, expressed or implied, is made to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein, and same is submitted subject to errors, omissions, change of price, rental or other conditions, withdrawal without notice, and to any special listing conditions imposed by our principals. Asteco Property Management will not be held responsible for any third-party contributions. All opinions and estimates included in this report constitute Asteco Property Management’s judgment, as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. Figures contained in this report are derived from a basket of locations highlighted in this report and therefore represent a snapshot of the Dubai market. Due care and attention has been used in the preparation of forecast information. However, actual results may vary from forecasts and any variation may be materially positive or negative. Forecasts, by their very nature, involve risk and uncertainty because they relate to future events and circumstances which are beyond Asteco Property Management’s control. For a full in-depth study of the market, please contact Asteco Property Management’s research team. Asteco Property Management LLC. Commercial License No. 218551. Paid-up Capital AED 4,000,000. © Asteco Property Management, 2016

2008 - H1 2016 UAE Real Estate Report

UAE Real Estate Report - Mid Year Review and Outlook

In the Middle East for over 30 Years