a framework for international scenario analysis of europe’s water futures
DESCRIPTION
A Framework for International Scenario Analysis of Europe’s Water Futures. EC Workshop on European Water Scenarios Brussels 30 June 2003. Joseph Alcamo Center for Environmental Systems Research University of Kassel, Germany. Some Key Questions. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany (CESR)) ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ___
A Framework for International A Framework for International
Scenario Analysis of Europe’s Water Scenario Analysis of Europe’s Water
FuturesFutures
Joseph Alcamo Center for Environmental Systems Research
University of Kassel, Germany
EC Workshop on European Water Scenarios Brussels 30 June 2003
Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany (CESR)) ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ___
Some Key Questions Some Key Questions
• What should be the goals of European water scenarios?
• What types of scenarios should be developed?
• How should the scenarios be developed and be brought into the policy process?
• How does the knowledge base need to be improved in order to develop rich and useful scenarios?
Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany (CESR)) ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ___
Different Parts of Europe: Different Water Situation
Water Stress (1995) (Withdrawals to Availability Ratio)
WaterCalculations:WaterGAPSource:UNESCO World Water Assessment
Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany (CESR)) ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ___
Different Parts of Europe: Different Water Needs Water Withdrawals (1995)
Quelle: WaterGAP, 2000
Percent of total water withdrawals
Domestic Agriculture
Industry
Calculations: WaterGAPSource: UNESCO World Water Assessment
Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany (CESR)) ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ___
Changing Water NeedsChange in Withdrawals 1995 to
2025
Increase %Decrease %
Calculations:WaterGAPSource: World Water Council et alWater & Climate Dialogue
IPCC A2 Scenario
Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany (CESR)) ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ___
Impact of Climate Change Change in Runoff (Current to 2070s)Change in Runoff (Current to 2070s)
Calculations:Calculations:WaterGAP ModelWaterGAP ModelClimate Scenario:Climate Scenario:Hadley ModelHadley Model
small change
Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany (CESR)) ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ___
Goals for a Goals for a European Water Futures ProjectEuropean Water Futures Project
Develop policy-relevant and plausible scenarios that provide a vision for Europe‘s water for the next 50 years.
The scenarios should:• take into account the special characteristics of water resources in different parts of Europe, in different sectors • be developed with stakeholders & decision makers • assess sustainability of European water resources• identify unexpected developments, thresholds, emerging problems• explore possible solutions to current and emerging problems• advance the state of scientific understanding, and ...• be incorporated in policymaking
Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany (CESR)) ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ___
Some Key Questions Some Key Questions
• What should be the goals of European water scenarios?
• What types of scenarios should be developed?
• How should the scenarios be developed and be brought into the policy process?
• How does the knowledge base need to be improved in order to develop rich and useful scenarios?
Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany (CESR)) ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ___
Some Key Questions Some Key Questions
• What should be the goals of European water scenarios?
• What types of scenarios should be developed?
• How should the scenarios be developed and be brought into the policy process?
• How does the knowledge base need to be improved in order to develop rich and useful scenarios?
Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany (CESR)) ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ___
What Types of Scenarios are Needed What Types of Scenarios are Needed for for
European Water Futures?European Water Futures?
Qualitative Scenarios
Typically in form of storylines – Narrative description of scenario, highlighting main features, and relationship between driving forces and main features.
Qualitative Quantitative
Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany (CESR)) ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ___
ExampleExample Storyline – World Water Vision Storyline – World Water Vision ScenariosScenarios Business as Usual (to 2025)Business as Usual (to 2025)
Per capita material and energy consumption increase as lifestyles throughout the world become more like those in the North… Income inequality between and within rich and poor countries increases tensions, but conflicts over social issues that do occur remain largely within national boundaries. … In some areas with limited water and rapid population growth, the development of water infrastructure lags behind population growth, and the number of people without access to safe water increases. In most parts of the world, however, economic growth, combined with technological improvements, result in better living conditions, including increased access to safe drinking water…
Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany (CESR)) ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ___
Model
Changed
model inputs
Changed
model outputs
Quantitative Scenarios
•Numerical information
•Commonly computed with models
Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany (CESR)) ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ___
Example of Quantitative ScenarioWater Stress 2025 IPCC A2 Scenario WaterGAP Calculations
Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany (CESR)) ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ___
Qualitative ScenariosDisadvantages: Arbitrary (?), tough to identify/test assumptions; do not
provide numerical information.
Advantages: Understandable/interesting (communicate with stakeholders, policymakers), represent many views, involve many different interests.
Advantages/Disadvantages
Quantitative ScenariosDisadvantages: Models have limited view of world; not transparent;
exactness gives illusion of certainty. Advantages: Scientifically-defensible (?); provide numerical
information; can identify underlying assumptions, can test consistency.
Conclusion:Develop both qualitative and quantitative scenarios!
Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany (CESR)) ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ___
European Modeling
What Types of Scenarios are Needed What Types of Scenarios are Needed for for
European Water Futures?European Water Futures? Not only qualitative/quantitative, Not only qualitative/quantitative,
but also multi-scale but also multi-scale
Regional/River Basin Modeling
European Scenarios
Regional Scenarios
• Data for validationData for validation• Process Process parameterizationparameterization
BoundarBoundary y conditioconditionsns
BoundarBoundary y conditioconditionsns
River River basin basin detail detail
Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany (CESR)) ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ___
Some Key Questions Some Key Questions
• What should be the goals of European water scenarios?
• What types of scenarios should be developed?
• How should the scenarios be developed and be brought into the policy process?
• How does the knowledge base need to be improved in order to develop rich and useful scenarios?
Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany (CESR)) ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ___
Some Key Questions Some Key Questions
• What should be the goals of European water scenarios?
• What types of scenarios should be developed?
• How should the scenarios be developed and be brought into the policy process?
• How does the knowledge base need to be improved in order to develop rich and useful scenarios?
Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany (CESR)) ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ___
How to Develop Scenarios?How to Develop Scenarios?Example from Contemporary Example from Contemporary
Assessments Assessments e.g. World Water Vision Scenarios e.g. World Water Vision Scenarios
(2000)(2000)
Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany (CESR)) ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ___
(6) Panel: revises storylines
(7) General review of scenarios
(5) Modeling groups: quantify
scenarios
(9) Publication & distribution
(8) Team & Panel: final revision of
scenarios
How Should the Scenarios be Developed?
SAS (Story and Simulation) Approach
(2) Team: proposes goals
and outline
Repeat Steps
(3) Panel: revises outline & drafts
zero order storylines
(1) Establish scenario team,
(1) Establish scenario team, scenario panel
(4) Team: quantifies driving
forces
(4) Team: quantifies driving
forces
Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany (CESR)) ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ___
Summing Up the “SAS” Summing Up the “SAS” Qualitative/Quantitative Approach Qualitative/Quantitative Approach
1. “Open” approach → Stakeholders involved in core activities, all interested parties can contribute to the scenarios
2. Iterative process → Enhances involvement & interaction between writers, experts, modelers, & stakeholders
3. Combines advantages of qualitative and quantitative scenarios.
Qualitative -- understandable, represent many views, communicate with policymakers & stakeholders
Quantitative -- consistency check of assumptions of qualitative scenarios, provide quantitative data, scientifically-defensible
Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany (CESR)) ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ___
• By developing not only quantitative but also qualitative scenarios
• By participation of stakeholders & policy advisors in scenario development
• After scenarios are developed By organizing “policy exercises”, and other direct contact with policymakers & stakeholders
How Should the Scenarios be Brought into the Policy Process?
Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany (CESR)) ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ___
Some Key Questions Some Key Questions
• What should be the goals of European water scenarios?
• What types of scenarios should be developed?
• How should the scenarios be developed and be brought into the policy process?
• How does the knowledge base need to be improved in order to develop rich and useful scenarios?
Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany (CESR)) ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ___
Some Key Questions Some Key Questions
• What should be the goals of European water scenarios?
• What types of scenarios should be developed?
• How should the scenarios be developed and be brought into the policy process?
• How does the knowledge base need to be improved in order to develop rich and useful scenarios?
Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany (CESR)) ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ___
Example of weak knowledge base:Example of weak knowledge base:Net irrigation requirements (1995)Net irrigation requirements (1995)
Source: WaterGAP model
mm per year
Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany (CESR)) ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ___
Water Demand and Use (current and future)• Household• Manufacturing • Electrical power production• Irrigation & other agriculture
How Does the Knowledge Base Need to be Improved?
Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany (CESR)) ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ___
Water Availability (current and future)• Storage • Routing• Climate variability• Climate change • Drought prediction
How Does the Knowledge Base Need to be Improved?
Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany (CESR)) ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ___
Global Connections• Impact of global climate change – regional
climate modeling.• Impact of global industrial trade on European
water resources.• Impact of global food trade on European
water resources (virtual water).
How Does the Knowledge Base Need to be Improved?
Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany (CESR)) ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ___
Mitigation and Adaptation • Water pricing • Water storage and distribution• Conjunctive use of surface and groundwater• Wastewater control, water quality and
ecosystem protection• Restoration of water quality and ecosystems • ...
How Does the Knowledge Base Need to be Improved?
Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany (CESR)) ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ___
Governance and Participation in Water Resource Development
and Water Protection • Water rights • The role of government institutions• The role of private and business institutions• The role of civil society • The role of scientists and other experts
How Does the Knowledge Base Need to be Improved?
Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany (CESR)) ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ___
Other Important Background Trends• Demographic trends• Trends in income and its distribution• Technological development• Institutional changes
How Does the Knowledge Base Need to be Improved?
Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany (CESR)) ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ___
Summary
• Develop water scenarios for Europe that are ... policy-relevant, advance scientific state-of-the-art qualitative & quantitative multi-scale
• Use an „open“ and iterative approach to develop the scenarios involvement/interaction of stakeholders & experts
• Build up the knowledge base in many areas.
• Incorporate the scenarios in the policy-process.
Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany (CESR)) ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ___
A Framework for International A Framework for International
Scenario Analysis of Europe’s Water Scenario Analysis of Europe’s Water
FuturesFutures
Joseph Alcamo Center for Environmental Systems Research
University of Kassel, Germany
EC Workshop on European Water Scenarios Brussels 30 June 2003
Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany (CESR)) ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ___