APRIL 2020

OXFORD ENERGY COMMENT Anupama Sen

A Double-Edged Sword for India’s Energy Sector?

The contents of this paper are the author’s sole responsibility. They do not necessarily represent the views of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies or any of its Members

2

Like several countries before it, on 25th March India’s 1.3 billion population went into a 21-day

lockdown,1 enforced by its government in order to slow the spread of the novel coronavirus. The

country’s first confirmed case of Covid-19 was on 30th January, with the total number crossing 500 at

the beginning of the lockdown.2 Given the trajectory of infection rates in other countries, and India’s

density of urban population and constrained access to public health infrastructure, experts have stated

that the enforcement of effective social distancing measures in India is critical to containing the spread

of the pandemic (PIB, 2020). The lockdown follows a series of other measures3 adopted by the central

and some state governments over the last few weeks. It can be assumed that as in every other affected

country, these measures are aimed at ‘flattening the curve’ (i.e. slowing down the rate of infection in

the population) in order to try and ensure that the number of reported infections at the peak of the

epidemic, when it arrives, will not overwhelmingly exceed the country’s limited public healthcare system

capacity, which could potentially have a catastrophic impact on its poorest citizens.

While it is still too early to say whether India will manage to buck the global trend by having enforced

social distancing early on, the outcome of this unprecedented period holds implications for India’s

energy sector, and by extension for international energy markets. The lockdown has resulted in the

grounding of flights, near-cessation of all public transport, restrictions on the transport of all but essential

goods, and directives to public and private sector employees to work from home – the impacts of which

will be clearer over the coming months.

This Comment argues that the net impact on the energy sector is likely to be shaped by three factors:

government support measures to mitigate the economic fallout of the pandemic; 4 the level of

international oil prices – which could constrain or expand fiscal space; and, the global economic impact

of the pandemic.

Background – the ‘pre-coronavirus’ economy

India’s economy faced a challenging set of circumstances towards the end of last year. Growth had

slowed down to a six-year low of 4.5 per cent in the quarter of July-September 2019, picking up only

marginally to 4.7 per cent in the quarter ending in December 2019. Advance estimates now put growth

for the year 2019 at 5 per cent, down from 6.1 per cent in 2018 (MoSPI, 2020a).

The underlying reasons for this economic slowdown from previous years – and whether they are

structural or cyclical – have been widely debated. For instance, some have attributed the slowdown in

part to two successive policy shocks in 2016 and 2017 – the demonetization of 86 per cent of India’s

currency, followed by the implementation of its Goods and Services Tax (GST) reform – which may

have had an adverse impact on real economic output (Chodorow-Reich, 2018).5 They argue that both

shocks hit India’s cash-dependent micro, small and medium sized enterprises (MSMEs) and the

informal sector – seen by many as the backbone of the Indian economy – particularly hard, with ripple

effects on employment and consumption that became visible in 2019.

Others, such as Subramanian and Felman (2019), argue that the slowdown is due to both structural

and cyclical factors: the global financial crisis of 2008 precipitated a fall in India’s export growth, whereas

large infrastructure projects that were credit (debt) financed during the mid-2000s began running into

The author is grateful to Bassam Fattouh and Kaushik Deb for their comments on this piece. 1 A term currently being used to indicate the imposition of strict restrictions on the movement of people, while exempting

essential goods and services. 2 At the time of writing, the number of active cases in India was approaching 4,000. 3 Including the screening and quarantine of incoming air passengers, grounding of flights, and ‘contact tracing’ of confirmed

Covid-19 cases. For details see Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, https://www.mohfw.gov.in/index.html. 4 This is distinct from necessary expenditure on the public health system, which will be a priority, and is likely to be augmented

by external support. At the time of writing, US$1 Bn of financial support had been sanctioned by the World Bank, towards

combating the epidemic. 5 Also see Srinivasan (2017). It has been suggested that the implementation of these policies rather than their underpinning

principles per se, led to adverse impacts.

3 The contents of this paper are the author’s sole responsibility. They do not necessarily represent the views

of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies or any of its Members

financial problems by the late 2010s. Economic growth continued despite these problems (as well as

the two aforementioned policy shocks), supported first by income gains from the drop in international

oil prices in mid-2014, then by government spending and a non-bank financial company (NBFC)-led

credit boom. Credit from the latter was injected mainly into the real estate sector in an unsustainable

manner, creating a bubble; Subramanian and Felman (2019) argue that this pushed the economy past

a tipping point, impacting consumption and causing the economy to finally slow down in 2019.

Attempts were made to address the slowdown, including the recapitalization of public sector banks and

NBFCs, the passing of a bankruptcy code, corporate tax cuts and efforts to support infrastructure

investment, all of which had limited effect. There has also been much debate in the academic literature

on the methodological accuracy of estimation of GDP growth rates, following a revision in 2015 to the

baseline year that is used to compute the National Accounts Statistics.6 India’s recent Union Budget

(announced in February 2020) listed seven indicators of ‘green shoots’ in the economy for 2020,

including improved global sentiment, rising net portfolio investments, a rebound in industrial activity, an

increase in forex reserves and growth in GST collections (GoI, 2020a).

It is against this context of an economic slowdown however, that India now has to contend with the

economic impact of the pandemic. At the time of writing, the country’s 2021 GDP growth forecast had

predictably been revised downwards by many ratings agencies.7 Indeed, the real economic impact may

be far deeper than expected, as statistics may not fully reflect the likely massive impact of the pandemic-

induced slowdown on India’s informal sector, which by some accounts is said to employ somewhere

between 85 and 93 per cent of the workforce (Mohanty, 2019). The next section sets out some

observations on the balance of policy trade-offs that could determine the potential implications of the

crisis caused by the pandemic for India’s energy sector, based on past experience.

Fiscal security – keystone of energy policy

To understand the potential impacts on its energy sector, it is useful to look at a key element of energy

policy, which relates to the issue of ‘energy security’. It can be argued that for a net energy importing

nation, ‘energy security’ is synonymous with fiscal security, rather than solely with the security of

physical supplies. India meets a substantial proportion of its domestic energy demand through imports

(primarily oil, plus LNG, and coal). Energy imports have typically formed a major proportion of the total

import bill; this can be seen in the ‘oil’ versus ‘non oil’ trade balance8 and oil as a significant percentage

of total imports, in Figure 1 below.

At the same time, the government subsidizes specific petroleum products (i.e. LPG and kerosene) and

products for which hydrocarbons are used as an intermediate input (e.g. electricity produced from coal

and natural gas; fertilizers produced from natural gas) to certain categories of consumers.

Over the last 10 years, there has been a process of gradual rationalization of petroleum product

subsidies – petrol (gasoline) price subsidies were removed in June 2010, and diesel prices were

gradually deregulated by October 2014. Policymakers took advantage of the fall in international oil

prices in 2014 to gradually liberalize the retail prices of selected petroleum products, while at the same

time raising revenues from higher excise duties imposed on these products, implying that the full effect

6 For a range of the debate see Subramanian and Felman (2019), Goldar (2015), Nagaraj (2015), Mazumdar (2015) and Goyal

(2015). See EPW (https://www.epw.in/engage/discussion/are-indias-gdp-figures-accurate) for a summary of some views from

the literature. 7 At the time of writing, the range of 2021 GDP forecasts include 3.5 per cent (S&P), 3.6 per cent (India Ratings and Research)

2 per cent (Fitch Solutions), 5.2 per cent (Moody’s ratings– up from a forecast of 2.5 per cent for calendar year 2020) and 2.1

per cent (Economist Intelligence Unit). It should be noted that forecasts are likely to be frequently revised in periods of

uncertainty. 8 The trade balance reflects exports less imports.

4 The contents of this paper are the author’s sole responsibility. They do not necessarily represent the views

of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies or any of its Members

of falling oil prices was not immediately passed on to consumers, but instead that the windfall was used

to create fiscal headroom.9

Figure 1: Oil & Non-Oil Trade Balance (LHS); Oil as % of Total Imports10 (RHS)

Source: RBI Bulletins (various); GoI (2020a)

Jain (2018) describes how the application of three simultaneous levers of policy reform – retail price

reforms, tax increases on petroleum products, and reduction/reform of subsidies – concurrent with the

drop in the crude oil price, led to a reduction in India’s oil subsidy bill from $24.6 bn in 2013 to $1.16

billion in 2017 (see Figure 2). The channels of subsidy distribution were restructured, by instituting direct

benefit transfers to eligible consumers’ bank accounts, and caps (e.g. limiting the number of subsidized

LPG cylinders to each household based on need or income group). Retail prices of most petroleum

products (notably petrol and diesel) have been adjusted daily by India’s oil marketing companies since

June 2017.

Figure 2: Total Subsidy Bill, 2004-18

Source: RBI Bulletins (various); GoI (2020a); Note: Data reflects Union subsidy bill

9 Tax revenues from petrol and diesel increased from 0.44 per cent of GDP in 2013/14 to 1.44 per cent of GDP in 2016/17. This

reportedly helped finance a reduction in the fiscal deficit, from 4.5 per cent to 3.5 per cent in the same time period (IISD, 2017;

Kundu, 2017). 10 Based on value.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Trad

e B

alan

ce (

US$

Bn

)

Oil Trade Balance

Non Oil Trade Balance

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18 Pet

role

um

as

a %

of

Tota

l Su

bsi

die

s

Sub

sid

y B

ill (

US$

Bn

)

Food Fertiliser

Petroleum Interest Subsidies

Other Petroleum (%)

5 The contents of this paper are the author’s sole responsibility. They do not necessarily represent the views

of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies or any of its Members

Given the substantial impact of energy on the trade balance, India’s energy policy, it can be argued,

has been closely tied to managing the impacts on the balance of trade (and specifically, the energy

import bill).11 The economic indicators that reflect this impact are the current account balance (or current

account deficit, in India’s case) and fiscal deficit. A worsening of the current account balance – say

through higher international oil prices – could feed into the fiscal deficit through a higher subsidy bill,

that would in turn need to be financed by government expenditure.12

The opposite effect may apply when oil prices fall – improving the current account balance, lowering

the total subsidy bill, and reducing the fiscal deficit.13 It has been estimated for instance, that every

$10/barrel decline in international crude oil prices turns into a saving of roughly $15 billion in India’s net

oil import bill (benefitting the current account balance); one rough estimate puts the fiscal headroom

that could be created by this at $1.9 billion, gained through subsidy savings (Bloomberg, 2020). This

creates some fiscal space to carry out other stimulus and reforms, or to raise more revenues (e.g. from

increasing excise duties on petroleum products).

Global economic activity, and specifically the competitiveness of Indian energy companies – such as

export refineries – in the international energy market, also influences fiscal security, as export revenues

contribute positively to the trade balance.

Figure 3: Current Account Deficit (CAD, % of GDP), GDP Growth (%) & Indian Crude Import

Price (US$/barrel)

Source: GoI (2020a); PPAC (2020)

This policy mechanism arguably holds not just for oil but also to some extent for imported LNG and

imported coal, which also feed into the twin (current account and fiscal) deficits. A key distinction is

however, that the liberalisation of retail petroleum product prices exposes oil consumers directly to oil

price volatility, whereas for gas and coal this is less the case: Indian gas prices for long-term contracted

LNG imports have a lag to international oil and gas prices, while domestic gas is sold at prices that are

11 An example is evident in the fertilizers (urea) sector which is state owned and operated. The retail price of urea (along with

other fertilizer products) is subsidized (at nearly 50 per cent) to the farmer to ensure affordability. The total fertilizer subsidy

(which is India’s second largest subsidy, after food) is mainly driven by the differential between the prices of its main competing

inputs - domestic gas, imported LNG, and imported urea - with government policy usually favouring the cheapest of these

inputs, which in turn drives the consumption (including imports) of that input (Sen, 2017). 12 This relationship is now weaker with the deregulation of transport fuel pricing, especially diesel. 13 Ceteris paribus.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

Oil

Pri

ce (

US$

/bar

rel)

CA

D, a

nd

GD

P G

row

th (

%)

Current Account Deficit (% of GDP) GDP Growth Rate (%) Crude Oil Price ($)

6 The contents of this paper are the author’s sole responsibility. They do not necessarily represent the views

of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies or any of its Members

adjusted at six-monthly intervals by the government. Similarly, imported coal forms a small proportion

of India’s energy import requirement (and overall import bill), given the country’s large coal reserves.

Implications for the energy sector

The countrywide lockdown initiated by the epidemic will seriously disrupt economic activity in the short-

to medium-term, as is already evident in downward revisions for multiple third-party growth forecasts

for India. An UNCTAD report released in March predicted that despite stimulus packages translating

into a US$1 to US$2 trillion injection of demand into the major G20 economies, the world economy will

go into recession this year, with developing countries severely impacted, but with the likely exception

of China and the possible exception of India, which will nevertheless experience economic

slowdowns.14 This outlook could evolve further, depending on the length and severity of the pandemic.

This disruption will impact India’s energy consumption in different ways: a sharp drop in the demand for

aviation turbine fuel, declines in gasoline and diesel demand, potential increases in the demand for

LPG and piped gas for cooking, and an unclear outcome for electricity demand. There will also be

knock-on effects, for instance on upstream company finances, on energy marketing and distribution

companies, on the energy trade balance, and on energy users.

How quickly economic activity begins to recover in the medium-term, especially in relation to the Indian

energy sector, will depend on the balance between three factors:

government fiscal and monetary support to manage the shock to the economy in the short-term;

the level of international oil prices; and,

the impact of the pandemic on global economic activity.

The first two factors are interlinked, as discussed earlier. India recently announced a package of

measures mainly aimed at supporting unorganized sector workers, especially daily wage workers, and

the urban and rural poor. The package includes cash transfers, food grain rations and LPG supplies

using the Public Distribution System, to cover a three-month period from 1st April. Other measures, such

as loan repayment waivers have also been introduced for a three-month period, with the federal

government also committing to continue paying into Employee Provident Funds (a retirement scheme

for Indian workers) on behalf of employees and employers for three months. No stimulus has been

announced for industry and commerce15, although there has been some speculation around ‘sector-

specific’ stimuluses (NIE, 2020).

The relief package amounts to just under 1 per cent of GDP, or roughly $22 billion – a proportionately

smaller amount compared with measures announced in other countries affected by the pandemic, such

as the US (10 per cent of GDP) or the UK (15 per cent), but further relief measures and/or stimulus

could follow in the coming months. Should oil prices continue to fall or even remain at sub-$50/barrel

levels, this could create some fiscal space for measures, such as higher government expenditure, or

raising additional tax revenue, to support the economic recovery. There are already indications of this

- for instance, an amendment to the Finance Bill passed on 24 March, permitted the government to

raise the limit up to which it can increase special excise duty on petrol and diesel (ET, 2020a).

The second factor is the level of international oil prices. The current low-price environment was triggered

by a combination of a demand shock and a supply shock. One can assume that demand will continue

to fall as a consequence of the pandemic. Low oil prices typically provide a stimulus to demand (as was

the case in 2014 for India – see Figure 4). However, the medium-term impact of sustained low oil prices

is as yet unclear. One possibility is that the supply-side shock (from the cessation of production and

distribution of all but essential goods and services) may well be followed by a second round of demand-

14 See https://unctad.org/en/pages/newsdetails.aspx?OriginalVersionID=2315 15 At the time of writing.

7 The contents of this paper are the author’s sole responsibility. They do not necessarily represent the views

of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies or any of its Members

side shocks, due to unemployment and falling demand from the first round (supply-side) shock –

negating any stimulus from low oil prices. Another possibility is that low oil prices could support a well-

timed stimulus package aimed at specific industrial sectors.

Figure 4: Year/year growth in India oil consumption (thousand b/d) vs India crude oil price

(US$/barrel)

Source: PPAC (2020)

The composition of India’s petroleum product demand may undergo a short-term shift: higher LPG

demand and lower diesel (Light Diesel Oil and High-Speed Diesel) demand. LPG growth has mainly

come from a policy drive to replace kerosene in household energy use (see Figure 5 below). India

imported 14.5 Million tonnes (Mt) of LPG in 2019, up 19 per cent from the previous year as demand (at 27 Mt,

a nearly 8 per cent increase on the previous year) outpaced production growth (Mohanty, 2020). India’s federal

government has pledged one free LPG cylinder per month for the next three months to over 80 million

poor households as part of its relief measures.

An anticipated increase in household LPG demand recently created concerns around the availability of

LPG supplies – even prompting India’s oil minister to seek assurances from Saudi Arabia over the

adequacy of LPG imports (Saadi, 2020). However, although the concerns around a potential supply

shortage may have risen from the fact that Indian refiners have sharply cut back their runs due to a

drop in the demand for the major petroleum products, the perceived problem may be more to do with

infrastructure and logistics; specifically, the difficulties around scaling up supplies in a lockdown, due to

local staff shortages and transport bottlenecks.

Low oil prices are also likely to impact India’s domestic oil and gas production, through adverse effects

on upstream oil companies’ profitability. Some of India’s main upstream oil producing companies16,

indicated that they would not resort to cuts in planned capital expenditure and project expansion plans

(Abdi, 2020a) – but these plans could be delayed in a falling oil price environment.

16 India produced 869 thousand b/d and consumed 5.16 million b/d of crude oil in 2018 (BP, 2019).

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

4502

00

0

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

Ind

ian

Bas

ket

Cru

de

Pri

ce (

US$

/bb

l)

Y/y

gro

wth

in o

il co

nsu

mp

tio

n (

tho

usa

nd

b

/d)

Y/y Growth Indian Basket Price

8 The contents of this paper are the author’s sole responsibility. They do not necessarily represent the views

of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies or any of its Members

Figure 5: Consumption of Petroleum Products (million tonnes)

Source: PPAC (2020a); *April 2019-February 2020

The third factor shaping the implications for the Indian energy sector pertains to the global economic

impact of the pandemic, and the fallout for the competitiveness of Indian energy companies in global

energy markets. Refiners are a key part of this, as India’s refining capacity has expanded significantly

over the past two decades (see Figure 6), and petroleum product exports also contribute positively to

the trade balance, potentially easing the twin deficits.

Figure 6: India refining capacity and product exports (million b/d)

Source: PPAC (2020a)

While refiners’ margins initially benefitted from the decline in the oil price, declining product demand

worldwide, due to lockdowns initiated by the pandemic, has begun to have adverse impacts as product

tanks rapidly fill up with the current oversupply, and freight rates spike. As a result of this, two Indian

refiners, MRPL and IOCL, recently had to shut down a portion of their refining capacity, declaring force

0

50

100

150

200

250

LPG Naphtha MS ATF

SKO HSD LDO Lubricants & Greases

FO & LSHS Bitumen Petroleum coke Others

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Pro

du

ct E

xpo

rts

(Mb

/d)

Ref

inin

g C

apac

ity

(mill

ion

b/d

)

Refining Capacity (Public Sector) Refining Capacity (Pvt/JV) Product Exports

9 The contents of this paper are the author’s sole responsibility. They do not necessarily represent the views

of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies or any of its Members

majeure to their vendors and suppliers in order to cease having to make further payments (Verma,

2020). In contrast, the current global oil price environment presents an opportunity for India to fill up its

Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), which contains roughly 39 million barrels of storage space, of

which half is reportedly empty (S&P, 2020). This is seemingly underway, despite some logistical barriers

– some capacity in the SPR was originally reserved through MoUs signed with ADNOC and Saudi

Aramco, but the Indian government has indicated that it is open to other options (e.g. purchasing oil

from other sources, or asking Indian state-owned oil marketing companies to provide supplies) (ET,

2020b).

The global economic impact is not limited to oil; prolonged low global gas prices could benefit Indian

energy importers and gas consumers, as gas at a price significantly below $5 per MMBtu could become

economically viable in consuming sectors such as power generation (Sen, 2017). The structure of

India’s gas consumption has changed over the last four years, with LNG imports steadily rising, and

accounting for around 50 per cent of consumption (up from around 30 per cent in 2012). In fact, India

imported a record amount of LNG in February 2020 – but due to the restrictions on movement and trade

imposed to tackle the spread of the coronavirus, demand fell in March (Hellenic Shipping News, 2020).

India in recent years has also had a series of successful renegotiations to lower the price for long-term

contracted LNG with several suppliers, including RasGas Qatar, Gazprom and ExxonMobil. The

proportion of LNG procured on the spot market has also risen, signaling the country’s residual buying

power in an oversupplied market. Recently, Petronet LNG was among a few Indian companies that

have reportedly served a force majeure notice to their suppliers (in Petronet’s case, Qatargas), seeking

a delay on deliveries due to the economic effects of the lockdown (Reuters, 2020).

Figure 7: India – Illustrative Price Elasticity of Demand for LNG

Source: Sen (2017)

The pandemic could temporarily disrupt global supply chains for renewable energy – India, which has

a target of achieving 175 Gigawatts of renewable generation capacity (mainly solar) by 2022, imports

nearly 80 per cent of its solar cells requirement from China. Renewable energy projects are also capital

intensive, and hence reliant on the availability of liquidity in the system, which could be constrained in

the short-term as a result of the pandemic – renewable energy developers are therefore likely to seek

project extensions through invoking force majeure (FE, 2020a). Recent data from India’s state owned

Power System Operation Corporation Limited (POSOCO) showed that electricity consumption fell by

26 per cent in the ten days following 18 March, attributing it to the slowdown in economic activity as

confirmed coronavirus cases began to increase and measures on social distancing began to be

introduced (Abdi, 2020b). In the long-term, falling electricity demand could reorient India’s long-term

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

201

6

201

7

LNG

Pri

ce (

Jap

an)

(US$

/MM

Btu

)

Gas

Co

nsu

mp

tio

n (

Bcm

)

Power Fertilisers City Gas

Petrochemicals Refineries LPG Shrinkage

Others LNG Import Price (Japan)

10 The contents of this paper are the author’s sole responsibility. They do not necessarily represent the views

of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies or any of its Members

strategy on renewables from building out new capacity, to utilizing existing capacity in an efficient and

flexible manner. In the short-term, it could impact cash flows in the electricity distribution sector,

exacerbating financial problems in the power sector.17

Conclusion

The coronavirus pandemic is just beginning to take hold in India, which instituted measures on social

distancing and a 21-day lockdown at a relatively early stage in comparison with many other countries.

Third party forecasts for economic growth in 2021 have been revised downward, although these may

not fully reflect the economic impact on India’s massive informal sector. Although time will tell whether

the measures taken thus far will succeed in “flattening the curve” and enabling the beginnings of a

recovery in economic activity, the implications for India’s energy sector, could go either way, partly

contingent on the three key factors laid out in this Comment:

government support measures to mitigate the economic fallout of the pandemic and the fiscal

headroom available to implement them;

the level of international oil prices – which could constrain or contribute to fiscal space; and,

the global economic impact of the pandemic, and its effect on the competitiveness of India’s energy

sector.

The unprecedented nature of this crisis may also present opportunities for reforms towards other

important goals such as environmentally sustainable and socially equitable growth, as the government

may seek to expand the fiscal space available to it to support domestic economic activity through the

coming months. The pandemic could be a double-edged sword for the Indian energy sector; and given

India’s massive consumer base and expected contribution to global energy demand, the outcome will

matter for international energy markets.

17 Bank lending to the power sector has contributed to a large proportion of nonperforming assets in the banking sector,

although this had reportedly declined at the end of 2019 (FE, 2020b). Also see TOI (2020).

11 The contents of this paper are the author’s sole responsibility. They do not necessarily represent the views

of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies or any of its Members

References

Abdi, B. (2020a) ‘Low crude oil prices cast a shadow on India’s oil and gas E&P prospects’, ET Energy

World, 23 March. https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/oil-and-gas/low-crude-oil-prices-

cast-a-shadow-on-indias-oil-and-gas-ep-prospects/74778521 [Accessed 31 March]

Abdi, B. (2020b). ‘Coronavirus impact: Within ten days, 26 per cent fall in India’s energy consumption’,

ET Energy World, 28 March. https://energy.eco.nomictimes.indiatimes.com/news/power/coronavirus-

impact-within-ten-days-26-per-cent-fall-in-indias-energy-consumption/74854825 [Accessed 02 April]

Bloomberg (2020). ‘Lower oil prices boon for India’s twin deficits if not consumers’, Bloomberg, 11

March. https://www.bloombergquint.com/business/lower-oil-prices-boon-for-indias-twin-deficits-if-not-

consumers [Accessed 31 March].

BP (2020). Statistical Review of World Energy.

Chodorow-Reich, G., Gopinath, G., Mishra, P. and Narayanan, A. (2018). ‘Cash and The Economy:

Evidence from India's Demonetization’, NBER Working Paper 25370.

https://www.nber.org/papers/w25370.pdf [Accessed 30 March]

ET (2020a). ‘Govt gets nod to raise excise duty on petrol, diesel by Rs 8 in future; Parl approves Finance

Bill’, ET Energy World, 24 March. https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/oil-and-gas/govt-

gets-nod-to-raise-excise-duty-on-petro-diesel-by-rs-8-in-future-parl-approves-finance-bill/74784477

[Accessed 02 April]

ET (2020b). ‘India to top up strategic oil reserve with cheaper crude’, ET Energy World, 20 March.

https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/oil-and-gas/india-to-top-up-strategic-oil-reserve-

with-cheaper-crude/74728737 [Accessed 02 April]

FE (2020a). ‘Relief to renewable energy: MNRE declares Coronavirus force majeure’, Financial

Express, 21 March. https://www.financialexpress.com/economy/relief-to-renewable-energy-mnre-

declares-coronavirus-force-majeure/1905026/ [Accessed 02 April]

FE (2020b). ‘After 2018 surge, energy sector’s NPAs decline in 2019 because of these key reasons’,

Financial Express, 8 March. https://www.financialexpress.com/industry/after-2018-surge-energy-

sectors-npas-decline-in-2019-because-of-these-key-reasons/1892324/ [Accessed 05 April]

Goldar, B. (2015). ‘Growth in Gross Value Added of Indian Manufacturing, Economic and Political

Weekly, Vol. 50, Issue No. 21, 23 May. https://www.epw.in/journal/2015/21/commentary/growth-gross-

value-added-indian-manufacturing.html [Accessed 30 March]

Goyal, A. (2015). ‘Why the Data Should be Doubted Less: Measuring Indian Growth’, Economic and

Political Weekly, Vol. 50, Issue 32, 8 August.

https://www.epw.in/journal/2015/32/discussion/measuring-indian-growth.html [Accessed 30 March]

GoI (2020a). Union Budget and Economic Survey, Government of India.

https://www.indiabudget.gov.in/ [Accessed 30 March]

Hellenic Shipping News (2020). ‘India set to import record LNG volumes as spot prices slump on virus

impact’, 16 March. https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/india-set-to-import-record-lng-volumes-as-

spot-prices-slump-on-virus-impact-2/ [Accessed 05 April]

IISD (2017). ‘India Energy Subsidy’, International Institute for Sustainable Development.

https://www.iisd.org/sites/default/files/publications/india-energy-subsidy-briefing-note-october-

2017.pdf [Accessed 02 April]

Jain, A. (2018). ‘A Fine Balance: Lessons from India's experience with petroleum subsidy reforms’,

Energy Policy, Vol. 118, pp. 242-249.

Kundu, T. (2017). Will politics trump economics on petrol, diesel pricing? Livemint, 20 September.

https://www.livemint.com/Industry/ruee0aHV0FYavh7Bx8N31L/Will-politics-trump-economics-on-

petroldiesel-pricing.html [Accessed 02 April]

12 The contents of this paper are the author’s sole responsibility. They do not necessarily represent the views

of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies or any of its Members

Mazumdar, M. (2015). ‘Manufacturing Growth in the New GDP Series’, Vol. 50, Issue No. 24, 13 June.

https://epw.in/journal/2015/24/discussion/manufacturing-growth-new-gdp-series.html [Accessed 30

March]

Mohanty, P. (2019). ‘Labour reforms: No one knows the size of India's informal workforce, not even

the govt.’, Business Today, 15 July. https://www.businesstoday.in/sectors/jobs/labour-law-reforms-no-

one-knows-actual-size-india-informal-workforce-not-even-govt/story/364361.html [Accessed 02 April]

Mohanty, S. (2020). ‘India lockdown: Coronavirus boosts LPG demand as quarantine cooking peaks’

S&P Global, 31 March. https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/033120-

india-lockdown-coronavirus-boosts-lpg-demand-as-quarantine-cooking-peaks [Accessed 02 April]

MoSPI (2020a). Press Note on second advance estimates of national income 2019-20 and quarterly

estimates of gross domestic product for the third quarter (q3) of 2019-20, Ministry of Statistics and

Programme Implementation, Government of India.

http://www.mospi.gov.in/sites/default/files/press_release/PRESS_NOTE_SAE_Q3_%202019-

20_28022020.pdf [Accessed 30 March]

Nagaraj, R. (2015). ‘Growth in GVA of Indian Manufacturing’, Economic and Political Weekly, Vol. 50,

Issue No. 24, 13 June. https://www.epw.in/journal/2015/24/discussion/growth-gva-indian-

manufacturing.html [Accessed 30 March]

NIE (2020). ‘Stimulus for India Inc to wait as Nirmala Sitharaman’s task force takes stock of sectorwise

impact of virus’, New Indian Express, 31 March.

https://www.newindianexpress.com/business/2020/mar/31/stimulus-for-india-inc-to-wait-as-nirmala-

sitharamans-taskforce-takes-stock-of-sectorwise-impact-of-virus-2123743.html [Accessed 02 April]

PIB (2020.) ‘Government of India issues Orders prescribing lockdown for containment of COVID-19

Epidemic in the country’, Press Information Bureau Government of India

https://pib.gov.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=200655 [Accessed 30 March]

PPAC (2020). ‘Indian Crude Basket Price’, Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell, Government of India.

https://www.ppac.gov.in/content/149_1_PricesPetroleum.aspx [Accessed 30 March]

RBI Bulletins (various). Reserve Bank of India. https://www.rbi.org.in/Scripts/BS_ViewBulletin.aspx

[Accessed 30 March]

Reuters (2020). ‘Indian gas importer issues force majeure notice to Qatargas’, 25 March.

https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/oil-and-gas/indian-gas-importer-issues-force-

majeure-notice-to-qatargas/74812197 [Accessed 02 April]

Sen, A. (2017). ‘India’s Gas Market Post-COP21’, OIES Paper NG120, Oxford Institute for Energy

Studies. https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Indias-Gas-Market-Post-

COP21-NG-120.pdf

Saadi, D. (2020). ‘India's oil minister says Saudi Arabia to supply LPG in coming days’, S&P Global

Platts, 29 March. https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/032920-indias-oil-

minister-says-saudi-arabia-to-supply-lpg-in-coming-days [Accessed 03 April]

Srinivasan, R. (2017). ‘The Unintended Consequences of GST’, The Hindu, 8 October.

https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/columns/the-unintended-consequences-of-gst/article19820697.ece

[Accessed 30 March]

Subramanian, A. and Felman, J. (2019). ‘India’s Great Slowdown: What Happened? What’s the Way

Out?’ CID Faculty Working Paper No. 370, Centre for International Development at Harvard University

https://www.hks.harvard.edu/sites/default/files/centers/cid/files/publications/faculty-working-

papers/2019-12-cid-wp-369-indian-growth-diagnosis-remedies-final.pdf [Accessed 02 April]

TOI (2020). ‘Covid lockdown to impact electricity demand, cash flows for discoms: ICRA., Times of

India, 30 March. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/energy/power/covid-lockdown-to-

13 The contents of this paper are the author’s sole responsibility. They do not necessarily represent the views

of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies or any of its Members

impact-electricity-demand-cash-flows-for-discoms-icra/articleshow/74896822.cms?from=mdr

[Accessed 05 April]

Verma, N. (2020). ‘Two Indian refiners declare force majeure to curb Mideast oil supply’, Reuters, 27

March. https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-india-refineries-e/exclusive-two-indian-

refiners-declare-force-majeure-to-curb-mideast-oil-supply-idUKKBN21E2W2 [Accessed 02 April]