a day’s work for new dimensions an international consulting firm
DESCRIPTION
A Day’s Work for New Dimensions an International Consulting Firm. Glenn Meyers Insurance Services Office, Inc. CAS/ARIA Financial Risk Management Seminar. DFA - Dynamic Financial Analysis. Coined by the CAS in 1994. Best defined in terms of the problems it seeks to solve. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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A Day’s Work for New Dimensions
an International Consulting Firm
Glenn Meyers
Insurance Services Office, Inc.
CAS/ARIA Financial Risk
Management Seminar
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DFA - Dynamic Financial Analysis
• Coined by the CAS in 1994.
• Best defined in terms of the problems it seeks to solve.– How much capital does an insurer need?– For how much time is the capital needed?– What decisions does an insurer make to
provide the greatest return on its capital?• Underwriting • Asset management (Include hedges)
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Outline of Talk
• Multi-dimensional aspects of insurer capital management
• Provide simple (perhaps artificial) examples focusing on particular dimensions.– Short and long tailed lines– Catastrophe options and reinsurance
• Describe (but not solve) a multi-dimensional insurer problem in capital management.
• Compare approach with efficient frontier methods.
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Assignment #1 Lineland Life Insurance Company
• Writes one life insurance policy
• Face value $1
• t is the term of the policy
• Mortality assumptions– Probability of death in [0,t] = q– Uniform distribution of deaths within [0,t]
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Assignment #1 Lineland Life Insurance Company
• Investors provide $1 of capital.
• Capital is invested at rate I compounded continuously.
• In return for exposing the capital to loss they demand a return of R compounded continuously.
R > I
• Find minimum premium, P, it must get.
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Assignment #1 Lineland Life Insurance Company
PV withclaime
I
T
R
R
1
E PV withclaime q
td
qe
t
IR
t
I
R
t
R
R
R
F
HGIKJ
z
1
11
0
Case 1 - Claim occurs at time T
The return is a continuous annuity of I
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Assignment #1 Lineland Life Insurance Company
Case 2 - Claim does not occur
Return = PV[Annuity] + PV of Capital
PV withoutclaime
eI
t
R
tR
R
1
E PV withoutclaim qe
eI
t
R
tR
R
FHG
IKJ
1
1a f
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Assignment #1 Lineland Life Insurance Company
• Receives P immediately.
• Receives annuity until claim occurs or the term ends.
1 = P + E[PV with Claim] + E[PV without Claim]
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Assignment #1 Lineland Life Insurance Company
q6% 10% 0.100
t P P-q1 0.131 0.0312 0.160 0.0603 0.185 0.0854 0.208 0.1085 0.229 0.1296 0.248 0.1487 0.264 0.164
I R
P increases when capital must be held longer.
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Background - Capital RequirementsDefine Terms
X = Random Insurer Loss
=
=
= Standard Deviation of X
C = Required Insurer Capital
F x X x
f x F x
LEV L x f x dx L F LL
( ) Pr{ }
( ) ( )
( ) ( )
zaf a f10
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Background - Capital RequirementsThree Formulas
#1 Probabililty of Ruin
F C E X( [ ]) 1
is determined by judgment of insurer management.
Insurer management always knows what the rating agencies - NAIC, Best, S&P think they should have.
Value at Risk -- VaR = C+E[X]
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Background - Capital RequirementsThree Formulas
#2 Expected Policyholder Deficit (EPD)
1
LEV C E x
E X
[ ]
[ ]a f
is determined by judgment of insurer management.
Sensitive to amount of insolvency
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Background - Capital RequirementsThree Formulas
#3 Standard Deviation Formula
T is determined by judgment of insurer management.
Normal approximation to ruin formula, but you can use this formula as is.
Easiest to work with
C T
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Assignment #2 Lineland Property Insurance Company
• Losses have a Gamma(100,100) distribution.
• Claims settle quickly– Time value of money is not an issue.
• Investors expect 10% ROE.
• Find the Cost of Capital.
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Gamma Distribution Mathematics
Cumulative Distribution Function
Expected Value
F x x
GammaDist x TRUE
( ) ; /
, , ,
a fa f
E X
1a faf
ExcelFormula
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Gamma Distribution Mathematics
Limited Expected Value (LEV) Function
Variance
LEV L L L L
11 1 1
a faf a f a fb g
; / ; /
exp ( ) ( ) ( , , , )
( , , , )
GammLn GammaLn GammaDist x TRUE
x GammaDist x TRUE
1 1
1
a fa f
E X
Var X E X E X
22
2
2 2 2 2
21
a faf a f
ExcelFormula
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Assignment #2 Lineland Property Insurance Company
Probability of Ruin
• E[X] = 10,000
• F(12,472) = 0.99
Capital = 2,472 @ 1.0% Level
• Cost of capital = 247
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Assignment #2 Lineland Property Insurance Company
Expected Policyholder Deficit
• E[X] = 10,000
• LEV[12,091] = 9,990
Capital = 2,091 @ 0.10% Level• Cost of Capital = 209
EPDLEV
E X 1
12 0910 0010
[ , ][ ]
.
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Assignment #2 Lineland Property Insurance Company
Standard Deviation• E[X] = 10,000• Std[X] = 1000• Select T = 2.33
Capital = 2,330 • Cost of Capital = 233
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Cost of Capital Depends Upon:
Economic Environmente.g. interest rates
Volatility of Net Worth
How long Capital is held
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Parameter Uncertaintyfor Gamma(,)
• Let be a random variable– E[] = 1– Var[] = b
• Select at random
• Conditional distribution given Gamma(,)
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Parameter Uncertainty for Gamma(,)
A simple, but nontrivial example
1 2 31 3 1 1 3 b b, ,
Pr Pr / Pr / 1 3 21 6 2 3k p k p k pand
E[] = 1 and Var[] = b
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Assignment # 2´Capital Requirements with
Parameter Uncertainty
b
0 02
100 75 51
100 100 00
100 124 49
1 1
2 2
3 2
.
.
.
.
F xx x x
Uaf a f a f a f
, / , / , /1 2 3
6
2
3 6
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Assignment # 2´Capital Requirements with
Parameter Uncertainty
Probability of Ruin
• E[X] = 10,000
• FU(14,443) = 0.99
Capital = 14,443 @ 1.0% Level
• Cost of capital = 444
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Assignment # 2´Capital Requirements with
Parameter UncertaintyProbability of Ruin
ThresholdCapitalw/o PU
Capitalwith PU
1.0% 2,472 4,443
Expected Policyholder Deficit
ThresholdCapitalw/o PU
Capitalwith PU
0.10% 2,091 4,129
Standard Deviation
ThresholdCapitalw/o PU
Capitalwith PU
2.33 2,330 4,049
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Assignment #3 Lineland Property Insurance Company
Considers Renewing a Policy
• The renewal business has a Gamma(100,1) loss distribution.
• Lineland has a Gamma(100,99) loss distribution without the renewal.
Property of the Gamma Distribution
• Lineland has a Gamma(100,100) loss distribution with the renewal.
This Property Assumes Independence
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Assignment #3 Lineland Property Insurance Company
Considers Renewing a Policy
• What is the marginal capital needed for the renewal business?
• Calculate capital needed without the business.
• Calculate capital needed with the business.
• Marginal capital is the difference.
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Assignment #3´Find Marginal Capital
Assuming Parameter Uncertainty
• The random variable affects all business (including renewal) simultaneously.
• The renewal’s parameter changes at the same time as the for the remaining business.
• The renewal’s losses are correlated with the rest of the losses.
In case you are interested -- = 0.195
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Assignment #3 and #3´Results
Total Capital Double
Marginal Capital Triple +
With Parameter Uncertainty
Probability of Ruin @ 1.0%b C-R C C
0.00 2,460.59 2,472.26 11.670.02 4,409.12 4,443.25 34.13
Expected Policyholder Deficit @0.1%b C-R C C
0.00 2,083.58 2,091.11 7.530.02 4,100.04 4,129.19 29.15
Standard Deviation @ 2.33b C-R C C
0.00 2,318.32 2,330.00 11.680.02 4,015.75 4,049.11 33.66
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How do you use the marginal cost of capital?
• Allocate the total cost of capital in proportion to the marginal cost of capital.– No consensus among actuaries yet.
• Add the allocated cost of capital to the expected loss and expense to see if you can make money at the “going market premium.”
• Can be done at individual insured level, or the line of business level.
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Assignment #4 Flatland Casualty Insurance Company
• Claim count distribution is negative binomial - by settlement lag.
• Claim severity distribution is mixed exponential - by settlement lag.
Name E[Count] Std[Count] E[Severity] Std[Severity] Lag 0 1,200 244 40,349 160,219Lag 1 600 123 59,798 194,452Lag 2 300 63 79,248 221,804
Summary Statistics by Settlement Lag
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Assignment #4 Flatland Casualty Insurance Company
Outstanding Aggregate Loss Statistics
E[Loss] 99th Pct EPD = 0.1% Std DevLags 0-2 108,071,943 158,505,938 155,520,667 19,835,337Lags 1-2 59,653,299 91,387,990 90,579,282 12,265,291
Lag 2 23,774,319 40,533,916 41,250,295 6,283,149
Aggregate Loss Statistics for OS Losses
The aggregate loss model included parameter uncertainty affecting all claim count distributions simultaneously.
(g =.02 - analogous to b =.02 above.)
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Assignment #4 Flatland Casualty Insurance Company
Capital is released over time as losses are paid.
Pr{Ruin}@1.0% [email protected]% Std Dev x 2.33Lags 0-2 50,433,995 47,448,724 46,216,335Lags 1-2 31,734,691 30,925,983 28,578,127
Lag 2 16,759,597 17,475,976 14,639,737
Required Capital for OS Losses
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Assignment #4 Flatland Casualty Insurance Company
What is the cost of providing the capital?
r = Rate of return needed to attract capital.i = Interest rate on invested capital
C0 = Capital needed at beginning of year 0.
Re ( )lease C i Ct t t 1 1
The cost of capital, R, satisfies:
C Rlease
rt
tt
01
3
1
Re
a f
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Assignment #4Given i = 6% and r = 10%
What is the cost of providing the capital?
Pr{Ruin}@1.0% [email protected]% Std Dev x 2.33Lags 0-2 50,433,995 47,448,724 46,216,335Lags 1-2 31,734,691 30,925,983 28,578,127
Lag 2 16,759,597 17,475,976 14,639,737
Time t1 21,725,344 19,369,665 20,411,1872 16,879,175 15,305,566 15,653,0783 17,765,172 18,524,534 15,518,122
Cost of Capital
3,386,713 3,272,953 3,065,288
Required Capital for OS Losses
Expected Return at Time t
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Asset Management Reinsurance and Catastrophe Options
• “Value will be determined not by the ability of an [insurance] enterprise to accumulate capital and sit on it.
• Rather it will be determined by a company’s franchise with its customers and its ability to originate risk.
• In this scenario the capital markets become the more efficient warehouse of [insurance] risk.”
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Asset Management Reinsurance and Catastrophe Options
• Reduce the cost of financing insurance– Expected insurer costs– Cost of Capital– Cost of Capital Substitutes
• Reinsurance• Contracts on a catastrophe index
• Find the right mix of capital and capital substitutes
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Quantifying the Cost of Capital
• We use the “easy” formula
Cost of Capital = K T Where:
= Standard deviation of total loss
T = Factor reflecting risk aversion
K = Rate of return needed to attract capital
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Quantifying Basis Risk
Ran RMS cat model through insurers and index.
• Compare variability before and after• Is the risk reduction worth the cost?
Index Event Max Event Contract Direct Reinsurance Event LossEvent Value Probability Probability Value Insurer Loss Recovery Given Max
1 100.0 0.00000121 0.00000121 1,125,200,000 1,212,550,269 16,000,000 71,350,2692 89.04 0.00000121 0.00000121 1,021,700,000 1,509,161,589 16,000,000 471,461,5893 87.56 0.00000181 0.00000181 1,021,700,000 1,303,694,653 16,000,000 265,994,6534 83.48 0.00000702 0.00000702 939,300,000 761,956,629 16,000,000 (193,343,371)5 83.20 0.00000702 0.00000702 939,300,000 734,137,782 16,000,000 (221,162,218)6 82.15 0.00000466 0.00000466 939,300,000 735,660,852 16,000,000 (219,639,148)7 80.95 0.00000791 0.00000791 939,300,000 1,004,861,128 16,000,000 49,561,1288 80.55 0.00005060 0.00005060 939,300,000 1,071,076,934 16,000,000 115,776,9349 79.19 0.00000702 0.00000702 856,900,000 688,269,904 16,000,000 (184,630,096)
10 77.48 0.00000181 0.00000181 856,900,000 1,652,933,116 16,000,000 780,033,116
+ about 9000 more
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Minimize Sum of Cost Elements
• Insurer Capital
Cost of Capital = K T (Net Losses)
• Reinsurance
Transaction Cost + Expected Cost
• Cat index contracts
Transaction Cost + Expected Cost
Use cat model results to back out transaction costs.
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ReferencesMissing transaction costs are in the first paper.
• “The Cost of Financing Catastrophe Insurance” by Glenn Meyers and John Kollar - 1998 DFA Call Paper Program
• Catastrophe Risk Securitization: Insurer and Investor Perspectives” by Glenn Meyers and John Kollar - 1999 CAS Spring Meeting Call Paper Program
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Assignment #5Analyze Three Insurers
• Insurer #1 - A medium national insurer
Highly correlated with the index
• Insurer #2 - A large national insurer
Moderately correlated with the index
• Insurer #3 - A small regional insurer
Slightly correlated with the index
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Search for Best Strategy to Minimize Cost of Financing
Insurance
• Search for the combination of index and reinsurance purchases that minimizes total cost of providing insurance.
Questions• How many index contracts at each
strike price?
• What layer of reinsurance?
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Results of SearchContractRange Insurer #1 Insurer #2 Insurer #3
5-20 47,400 93,100 025-40 74,400 118,100 6,30045-55 59,500 67,900 060-70 47,600 28,600 075-85 81,400 545,100 0
90-100 37,200 634,800 0
Retention 73,000,000 457,000,000 54,000,000Limit 13,000,000 36,000,000 105,000,000
Number of Index Contracts
Reinsurance
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Financing With Reinsurance and Catastrophe Options
Insurer #1 Insurer #2 Insurer #3Expected Net Loss 16,315,629 62,086,995 1,464,410Cost of Capital 53,470,927 143,662,761 12,914,922Cost of Reinsurance 2,088,287 1,848,530 1,726,342Cost of Catastrophe Options 22,252,015 42,409,101 249,427Cost of Financing Insurance 94,126,858 250,007,387 16,355,100
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Financing Without Reinsurance and Catastrophe Options
Insurer #1 Insurer #2 Insurer #3Expected Net Loss 34,839,348 95,417,229 2,385,629Cost of Capital 68,768,384 166,962,499 15,356,683Cost of Reinsurance 0 0 0Cost of Catastrophe Options 0 0 0Cost of Financing Insurance 103,607,732 262,379,728 17,742,312
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Differences in Costs
Insurer #1 Insurer #2 Insurer #3Without Reins & Options 103,607,732 262,379,728 17,742,312With Reins & Options 94,126,858 250,007,387 16,355,100Difference 9,480,874 12,372,341 1,387,212Pct Difference 9.2% 4.7% 7.8%
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Assignment #6Spaceland Property and Casualty
• Short tailed property exposure– Include catastrophe exposure
• Long tailed casualty exposure– Include unsettled claims from prior years
• Capital Management Questions– Catastrophe options/reinsurance?– Casualty reinsurance?
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Assignment #6Spaceland Property and Casualty
Underwriting Management Decisions
• Allocate the cost of capital to the lines of insurance - in proportion to the marginal cost of capital.
• Allocate the cost of reinsurance and/or catastrophe options to the lines of insurance - in proportion to the marginal costs.
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Assignment #6Information and Technology
Requirements
• An Aggregate Loss Model
• Size of loss distributions by settlement lag
• Correlation structure between lines of insurance
• A catastrophe model
• Exposure underlying catastrophe index
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References• “Underwriting Risk” by Glenn Meyers
– 1999 CARe Call Paper Program
• “Estimating Between Line Correlations Generated by Parameter Uncertainty” by Glenn Meyers– 1999 DFA Call Paper Program
• These papers should be eventually available at CAS web site.
• Currently available on my personal web site
http://www.crimcalc.com/glenn.htm
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Relationship Between this Capital Cost Allocation Method
and the Efficient Frontier Methods
• They are equivalent – (loosely speaking)
• I say “loosely speaking” because: – There is a lot of loose speaking about the
meaning of “risk.”– There is a lot of loose speaking about the
meaning of “allocated cost of capital.”
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Relationship Between the Capital Cost Allocation Methods and the Efficient Frontier Methods
• The intuition
• Allocated cost of capital depends upon marginal risk.
• Making decisions that yield a higher return on marginal capital moves you closer to the efficient frontier.
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Relationship Between the Capital Cost Allocation Methods and the Efficient Frontier Methods
• Some History from PCAS– Kreps: Risk loads from marginal capital
requirements, 1990– Meyers: Risk loads from efficient frontiers
(mimic CAPM), 1991– Heckman: Kreps and Meyers are
equivalent, 1993 (CAS Forum)– Meyers: Cat risk loads from marginal
capital requirements, 1997
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Relationship Between the Capital Cost Allocation Methods and the Efficient Frontier Methods
If two are equivalent, why did I switch?
• Easier to explain
• Easier to extend– To different measures of risk– To different capital holding times