a comprehensive analysis of the sources of uncertainty of the upscaling method for estimating...
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© Fraunhofer IWES
A comprehensive analysis of the sources of
uncertainty of the upscaling method for
estimating regional PV power generation
Yves-Marie Saint-Drenan
6th PV Performance Modeling and Monitoring Workshop
Freiburg, Germany
24.10.2016
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1. Background and motivation
2. Introduction to the upscaling method
3. Analysis of the interpolation error of specific power measurements
4. Effect of the set of reference plants on the upscaling error
5. Conclusion
Outline
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Source: TSOs (Wind & PV power generation), ENTSO-E (consumption)
Installed capacity (01/2016):Wind : 44.28 GW
PV : 38.46 GWp
Wind+PV : 82.74 GW
Maximal power generation:Wind : 30.60 GW
PV : 25.86 GW
Wind+PV : 42.55 GW
1 - Background and motivation
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http://www.ventea.fr
One of the main task of RES
integration consists in
maintaining constantly a
balance between generation
and demand
Estimates and forecast of the
regional PV power generation
are needed to maintain an
equilibrium between generation
and demand
Production > Demand
f > 50Hz
Production = Demand
f = 50Hz
Production < Demand
f < 50Hz
1 - Background and motivation
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The upscaling approach is currently the standard method for
calculating the aggregated PV power generated in a region.
It is implemented to estimate and forecast
the PV power generation area-wide.
WPMS
It has been successfully implemented for
wind over the last years
Little investigation has been made on the
accuracy of this approach for PV
1 - Background and motivation
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2 - Introduction to the upscaling approach
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2 - Introduction to the upscaling approach
1. Choice of a set of reference plants with
available power measurements
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2 - Introduction to the upscaling approach
1. Choice of a set of reference plants with
available power measurements
2. Normalization of all power
measurements to the peak capacity
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2 - Introduction to the upscaling approach
Spatial interpolation method used:
Inverse-distance weighting interpolation
[Shepard 1968]
1. Choice of a set of reference plants with
available power measurements
2. Normalization of all power
measurements to the peak capacity
3. Spatial interpolation of the normalized
power values to all installed plants
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2 - Introduction to the upscaling approach
1. Choice of a set of reference plants with
available power measurements
2. Normalization of all power
measurements to the peak capacity
3. Spatial interpolation of the normalized
power values to all installed plants
4. Scaling of interpolated values to the peak
capacity of the plants
Spatial interpolation method used:
Inverse-distance weighting interpolation
[Shepard 1968]
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3 - Analysis of the interpolation error of specific power measurements
Dataset
366 PV plants provided by LEW
Verteilnetz
15 min time series of the AC power
measurements between 01/08/2013 and
01/08/2014
Only plant with a fully availability and
error free data on the considered period
Average: 262 kWp
Sum: 96 MWp
Minimum: 16 kWp
Maximum: 4 340 kWp
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3 - Analysis of the interpolation error of specific power measurements
1. To analyse the interpolation error the
RMSE between the actual specific
power and the interpolation is
evaluated for each unknown location
2. Since the error can be expected to
depend on the local density of
reference plants, the distance to the
next reference plant is considered in
the analysis.
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3 - Analysis of the interpolation error of specific power measurements
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3 - Analysis of the interpolation error of specific power measurements
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3 - Analysis of the interpolation error of specific power measurements
(a) Mismatch between
meteorological conditions at
reference and unknown plants
(a)(a)
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3 - Analysis of the interpolation error of specific power measurements
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3 - Analysis of the interpolation error of specific power measurements
(a) Mismatch between
meteorological conditions at
reference and unknown plants
(a)(a)
(b)
(b)
(b) Mismatch between
characteristics of reference and
unknown plants
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3 - Analysis of the interpolation error of specific power measurements
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3 - Analysis of the interpolation error of specific power measurements
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3 - Analysis of the interpolation error of specific power measurements
-> Balancing effect limited
by the spatial weights
made by considering the
actual plant capacities
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4 - Effect of the set of reference plants on the upscaling error
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4 - Effect of the set of reference plants on the upscaling error
(a)
(a) Mismatch between
meteorological conditions
assessed by the reference
plants with the actual
ones
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4 - Effect of the set of reference plants on the upscaling error
(a)
(b)
(a) Mismatch between
meteorological conditions
assessed by the reference
plants with the actual
ones
(b) Mismatch between the
characteristics of the
reference and unknown
plants
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4 - Effect of the set of reference plants on the upscaling error
A limited number of
reference plants is sufficient
if:
- the reference plants are
spatially representative of
the set of unknown plants
- the characteristics of the
reference plants are
representative of the set of
unknown plants
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4 - Effect of the set of reference plants on the upscaling error
A limited number of
reference plants is sufficient
if:
- the reference plants are
spatially representative of
the set of unknown plants
Easy to assess!
- the characteristics of the
reference plants are
representative of the set of
unknown plants
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4 - Effect of the set of reference plants on the upscaling error
A limited number of
reference plants is sufficient
if:
- the reference plants are
spatially representative of
the set of unknown plants
Easy to assess!
- the characteristics of the
reference plants are
representative of the set of
unknown plants
Information on the
unknown plants needed!!!
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Yves-Marie Saint-Drenan
Tel: 0049 561 7294 246
A comprehensive analysis of the sources of uncertainty of the upscaling
method for estimating regional PV power generation
Saint-Drenan, Yves-Marie, Good, Garrett, Braun, Martin, Freisinger Thomas, “Analysis of
the uncertainty in the estimates of regional PV power generation evaluated with the
upscaling method”, Solar Energy, Volume 135, October 2016, Pages 536–550
Thank you for your attention !