a circular economy: why, and how?€¦ · dr dominic hogg chairman eunomia research &...
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![Page 1: A Circular Economy: Why, and How?€¦ · Dr Dominic Hogg Chairman Eunomia Research & Consulting 5thJune 2018. Outline 1.Commodity Prices 2.Why Change? 3.The Economic Upside 4.Delivering](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050601/5fa8f5a9ee3b3f7fe202a92f/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
A Circular Economy: Why, and How?Avfall Norge Conference
Dr Dominic HoggChairmanEunomia Research & Consulting
5th June 2018
![Page 2: A Circular Economy: Why, and How?€¦ · Dr Dominic Hogg Chairman Eunomia Research & Consulting 5thJune 2018. Outline 1.Commodity Prices 2.Why Change? 3.The Economic Upside 4.Delivering](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050601/5fa8f5a9ee3b3f7fe202a92f/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Outline
1. Commodity Prices2. Why Change?3. The Economic Upside4. Delivering the Upside
![Page 3: A Circular Economy: Why, and How?€¦ · Dr Dominic Hogg Chairman Eunomia Research & Consulting 5thJune 2018. Outline 1.Commodity Prices 2.Why Change? 3.The Economic Upside 4.Delivering](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050601/5fa8f5a9ee3b3f7fe202a92f/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Commodity Prices
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Underpinning Analysis
• ‘the costs of making stuff are becoming unpredictable & expensive’… ‘resource scarcity and tighter environmental standards are here to stay’
Source: Ellen MacArthur Foundation 2012• ‘In a world of high and volatile resource
prices, a CE offers huge business opportunities’
Source: Chatham House briefing paper
![Page 5: A Circular Economy: Why, and How?€¦ · Dr Dominic Hogg Chairman Eunomia Research & Consulting 5thJune 2018. Outline 1.Commodity Prices 2.Why Change? 3.The Economic Upside 4.Delivering](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050601/5fa8f5a9ee3b3f7fe202a92f/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Commodity Prices as a Driver?
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Commodity Prices as a Driver?
![Page 7: A Circular Economy: Why, and How?€¦ · Dr Dominic Hogg Chairman Eunomia Research & Consulting 5thJune 2018. Outline 1.Commodity Prices 2.Why Change? 3.The Economic Upside 4.Delivering](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050601/5fa8f5a9ee3b3f7fe202a92f/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Why?
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A Seductive Identity?
Rising demand +
increasing volatility =
high commodity prices & a circular economy
What if prices fall?
![Page 9: A Circular Economy: Why, and How?€¦ · Dr Dominic Hogg Chairman Eunomia Research & Consulting 5thJune 2018. Outline 1.Commodity Prices 2.Why Change? 3.The Economic Upside 4.Delivering](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050601/5fa8f5a9ee3b3f7fe202a92f/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Index of Primary Commodity Prices (2005=100)
Source: IMF
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Index of Non-Fuel Primary Commodity Prices (2005=100)
Source: IMF
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Key Observation 1
1. A ‘view’ on future commodity prices is not a sound basis for businesses to change what they do
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Why Change?
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Climate Scenarios
Source: Climate Analytics
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Renewables or Efficiency?
Source: IRENA
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GHG Impacts
-23 000 -18 000 -13 000 -8 000 -3 000 2 000
Paper / card
Plastic
Glass
Textiles
Steel
Aluminium
Garden (composting)
Food waste (AD)
WEEE
Others
Paper / card
Plastic
Glass
Textiles
Steel
Aluminium
Garden (composting)
Food waste (AD)
WEEE
Others
Landfill
Incineration CHP
Incineration
Emissions, kg CO2 equivalent per tonne of waste managed
RESIDUAL WASTE TREATMENT
RECYCLING & COMPOSTING
AVOIDED PRODUCTION (WASTE PREVENTION)
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Resource Efficiency and Climate Change
Source: Green Alliance
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Moving to High Recycling Rates
Source: Eunomia
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Managing Wastes in a ‘More Circular’ Manner
-30.00
-25.00
-20.00
-15.00
-10.00
-5.00
0.00
5.00
Tentative Transition Positive Transition
GHG
Emiss
ions
(mill
ion
tonn
es C
O2eq
) Waste PreventionPreparation for ReuseDry RecyclingComposting DigestionMBT / C&D TreatmentIncineration - DomesticIncineration - EuropeanLandfill / Land Disposal
Source: Eunomia
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Key Observation 2
1. A ‘view’ on future commodity prices is not a sound basis for businesses to change what they do
2. Responding to the threat of climate change will not be possible without radical changes in production and consumption: the CE is a means to achieve this
![Page 20: A Circular Economy: Why, and How?€¦ · Dr Dominic Hogg Chairman Eunomia Research & Consulting 5thJune 2018. Outline 1.Commodity Prices 2.Why Change? 3.The Economic Upside 4.Delivering](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050601/5fa8f5a9ee3b3f7fe202a92f/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
The Upside
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Effects on Gross Value Added (GVA) (incl indirect and induced effects)
-2 000
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
TentativeTransition
PositiveTransition
GVA
of S
witc
hes,
all
figur
es fo
r 203
0,
incl
udes
Typ
e 2
mul
tiplie
r effe
cts,
£
milli
on
Circularising Flows Prevention Recycling and Prep for Reuse TreatmentLandfill, backfilling etc.
Textiles, EEE and Furniture
Mainly food
Source: Eunomia
![Page 22: A Circular Economy: Why, and How?€¦ · Dr Dominic Hogg Chairman Eunomia Research & Consulting 5thJune 2018. Outline 1.Commodity Prices 2.Why Change? 3.The Economic Upside 4.Delivering](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050601/5fa8f5a9ee3b3f7fe202a92f/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Key Observation
Source: Club of Rome
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Key Observation 3
1. A ‘view’ on future commodity prices is not a sound basis for businesses to change what they do
2. Responding to the threat of climate change will not be possible without radical changes in production and consumption: the CE is a means to achieve this
3. There are additional upsides for businesses and the economy: jobs, and GVA
![Page 24: A Circular Economy: Why, and How?€¦ · Dr Dominic Hogg Chairman Eunomia Research & Consulting 5thJune 2018. Outline 1.Commodity Prices 2.Why Change? 3.The Economic Upside 4.Delivering](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050601/5fa8f5a9ee3b3f7fe202a92f/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
How can we Access the Benefits?
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The Hierarchy
Prevention (incl reuse)
Preparation for Reuse
Recycling
Other Recovery
Disposal
Design
as Viewed by Designers
Savings in Embodied Energy and GHG Emissions Savings in
Embodied Energy, GHG Emissions and Value Added
Too much funding at base of the hierarchy on infrastructure
£
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An Industrial Strategy
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How Will (More) Businesses Change?
Ø (Some) citizens are seeking more responsible ‘choice editing’ from producers / retailers
ØBusinesses want confidence that citizens will ‘accept’ a change in business model
ØForward thinking businesses want to know they are ‘on the right path’
ØGovernments will act if they have the mandate to do so from citizens
ØAction is required from citizens, businesses and government…
Ø… a co-evolutionary phenomenon
![Page 28: A Circular Economy: Why, and How?€¦ · Dr Dominic Hogg Chairman Eunomia Research & Consulting 5thJune 2018. Outline 1.Commodity Prices 2.Why Change? 3.The Economic Upside 4.Delivering](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050601/5fa8f5a9ee3b3f7fe202a92f/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Key Observation 4
1. A ‘view’ on future commodity prices is not a sound basis for businesses to change what they do
2. Responding to the threat of climate change will not be possible without radical changes in production and consumption: the CE is a means to achieve this
3. There are additional upsides for businesses and the economy: jobs, and GVA
4. They will flow from changes made by citizens, businesses and government