“A Changing Ecosystem: Missouri’s Enrollment

Trends”

Presented by:

Brian Crouse

Research Associate

• The University of Missouri ‑ Columbia is up 1,700 students overall for a total enrollment of 29,761. The record freshman class of 5,812 has 785 more students than last year, for a 15.6 percent increase.

• Missouri University of Science & Technology (formerly the University of Missouri ‑ Rolla) is up about 4 percent overall from last year. Total enrollment is expected to be around 6,224.

• According to the Office of Enrollment Services, Westminster expects to start the fall 2008 semester with between 970‑980 students. This represents a steadily increasing enrollment of 32 percent over a nine-year period.

• With 90,390 students attending Missouri’s community colleges, six of the 12 community college systems in the state showing growth of five percent or more and four more showing smaller increases, it is becoming clear that the two-year institutions are in demand.

22 Yrs of Missouri Freshmen Enrollments

Missouri Enrollments

• Missouri increased in Enrollment of First-Time, Full-Time Freshmen by 12,233 Students in 10 years.

• A 28.8% increase over freshmen entering college over a 10 year time span.

US Census US CensusAmerican Indian/ Asian/Pacific Black non- White non- Missouri National

TOTAL Alaska Native Islander Hispanic Hispanic Total Total 1991-92 46,556 94 555 6,344 422 39,141 46,556 4,984 51,540 56,524 108,064 2,461,249 4.39%1992-93 46,864 80 606 5,308 411 40,459 46,864 5,223 52,087 57,310 109,397 2,471,305 4.43%1993-94 46,566 98 539 5,369 391 40,169 46,566 5,389 51,955 57,344 109,299 2,461,216 4.44%1994-95 48,862 88 564 5,420 404 42,386 48,862 5,900 54,762 60,662 115,424 2,520,125 4.58%1995-96 49,011 90 609 5,345 471 42,496 49,011 5,852 54,863 60,715 115,578 2,522,297 4.58%1996-97 50,543 105 644 5,826 481 43,487 50,543 6,214 56,757 62,971 119,728 2,612,740 4.58%1997-98 52,095 119 639 6,239 535 44,563 52,095 6,533 58,628 65,160 123,788 2,705,110 4.58%1998-99 52,531 104 667 6,687 587 44,486 52,531 6,851 59,382 66,233 125,615 2,759,969 4.55%1999-00 52,848 124 829 6,683 643 44,569 52,848 6,867 59,715 66,582 126,297 2,832,879 4.46%2000-01 54,138 134 753 6,824 711 45,716 54,138 6,883 61,021 67,904 128,925 2,850,006 4.52% 5,595,211 281,421,9062001-02 54,487 148 821 7,195 696 45,627 54,487 7,059 61,546 68,605 130,151 2,910,665 4.47%2002-03 56,925 153 800 7,536 867 47,569 56,925 7,235 64,160 71,395 135,555 3,019,234 4.49%2003-04 57,983 189 866 7,863 947 48,118 57,983 7,884 65,867 73,751 139,618 3,058,145 4.57%2004-05 57,841 195 852 8,234 1,075 47,485 57,841 7,809 65,650 73,460 139,110 3,096,834 4.49%2005-06 58,639 190 1,009 8,636 1,254 47,550 58,639 7,872 66,511 74,384 140,895 3,189,538 4.42% 5,765,166 295,507,134 2006-07 59,662 223 1,030 9,057 1,407 47,945 59,662 8,362 68,025 76,387 144,412 3,254,432 4.44%2007-08 60,545 264 1,087 9,369 1,591 48,234 60,545 7,717 68,262 75,979 144,241 3,340,235 4.32%2008-09 61,848 288 1,150 10,028 1,748 48,634 61,848 7,629 69,477 77,105 146,582 3,320,163 4.41%2009-10 62,425 313 1,234 10,165 1,996 48,717 62,425 7,634 70,059 77,693 147,752 3,310,631 4.46%2010-11 60,632 299 1,288 10,213 2,277 46,555 60,632 7,482 68,114 75,596 143,710 3,280,185 4.38% 6,069,556 308,935,581 2011-12 58,115 295 1,403 9,522 2,321 44,573 58,115 7,326 65,441 72,767 138,208 3,225,017 4.29%2012-13 58,005 319 1,595 9,169 2,605 44,318 58,005 7,240 65,245 72,486 137,731 3,228,044 4.27%2013-14 58,064 334 1,647 8,886 2,771 44,425 58,064 7,368 65,432 72,800 138,231 3,188,642 4.34%2014-15 58,346 356 1,771 9,147 3,001 44,070 58,346 7,191 65,537 72,729 138,266 3,189,364 4.34%2015-16 60,484 368 1,928 9,542 3,671 44,975 60,484 7,430 67,914 75,345 143,259 3,248,219 4.41% 6,199,882 322,365,787 2016-17 60,943 403 2,065 9,485 3,974 45,017 60,943 7,454 68,397 75,851 144,248 3,275,484 4.40%2017-18 62,164 446 2,354 9,533 4,831 45,001 62,164 7,550 69,715 77,265 146,980 3,345,212 4.39%2018-19 61,588 442 2,341 9,220 5,365 44,221 61,588 7,445 69,033 76,477 145,510 3,313,988 4.39%2019-20 61,763 462 2,377 9,169 5,852 43,902 61,763 7,409 69,172 76,581 145,752 3,311,763 4.40%2020-21 63,603 461 2,689 9,211 6,277 44,965 63,603 7,597 71,200 78,797 149,997 3,369,265 4.45%2021-22 64,563 481 2,840 9,424 6,904 44,915 64,563 7,663 72,227 79,890 152,116 3,361,696 4.52%

2,715 192 1,690 -604 5,156 -3,719

ActualProjected

PUBLIC & NONPUBLIC

TOTAL

PUBLIC & NONPUBLIC

TOTAL

PUBLIC & NONPUBLIC

TOTAL

United States Public &

Nonpublic TOTAL

Missouri Percent of

National TotalHispanic PUBLIC TOTALNON-PUBLIC

TOTAL

MISSOURI

Public and Nonpublic High School Graduates1991-92 through 2004-05 (actual), 2005-06 through 2021-22 (projected)

Missouri Public and Nonpublic High School Graduates

1991-92 through 2004-05 (actual), 2005-06 through 2021-22 (projected)

The Decline in Enrollment

• Missouri will reach peak high school graduation numbers at 62,500 in 2009‑2010

• Missouri will then decline in high school graduates by 7.6% or 4,800 until 2014‑1015

• Missouri is then expected to increase returning to its 2009‑2010 level by 2021‑2022

The Peaks and Valleys of Missouri’s Enrollment Past and

Future

Demographic Changes

Minority Changes

The Changing Tide

• From 2004‑2005 to 2014‑2015 Missouri will see a projected 7.1% decrease in the amount of White Non‑Hispanic public high school students graduating from 47,485 to 44,070.

• An increase in minority groups is projected to take place during this decline in White Non‑Hispanics, with all other minority groups increasing on a whole from 10,356 in 2004‑2005 to a projected increased amount in 2014‑2015 to 13,660, a 31% increase in non‑white public high school graduates.

Demographic Change in Missouri until 2022

• All time high for the state with a total of 75,661 Freshmen submitting FAFSA Applications

• First-time Freshmen filling the FAFSA in 2007-2008 for 19 and under was 44,270

• 2004 - 2007 FAFSA filers increased by 7.14%

• As the amount of Missouri 12 grade students has increased, there has been a closing of the gap in discrepancy between students that File a FAFSA application.

• Still much work to be done in bringing underserved populations in-line with FAFSA Priority Deadlines.

2007-2008 FAFSA Applicants by Gender and Age

2007-2008 Missouri FAFSA Applications by Date of Filing

Data analysis provided by Dr. Mark Elhert and Susan Li of the University of Missouri

College Goal Sunday

• Sunday, February 8, 2009

• Available throughout Missouri

• Benefits for attending:– Financial aid professional assistance available – In-depth, line-by-line explanation of the FAFSA form– Deadline announcements

• Official website: www.collegegoalmissouri.org

Remediation and the Missouri Student

Missouri’s International Student Population Trend

10 Year Trend of International Students in Missouri

Data Sources for Presentation

• DHE (Department of Higher Education) – EMSAS (Enhanced Missouri Student Achievement Study)- FAFSA

Data

• WICHIE –Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education– “Knocking at the College Door “

• http://www.wiche.edu/

• DESE- Department of Elementary and Secondary Education

• Assistance Provide on FAFSA Data Analysis by Dr. Mark Elhert and Susan Li- University of Missouri

• Assistance Provide on Remediation Data Analysis-Jeffrey Smith-DHE

• Assistance Provide on International Student Data- Jeremy Kinitzle-DHE

Questions?

3515 Amazonas DriveJefferson City, MO 651O9

(8OO) 473-6757(573) 751-6635

Fax (573) 751-6635Info@dhe.mo.govwww.dhe.mo.gov