COL Kevin M. Felix

A Case for Human Dimension Training:

Decision Science and Its Potential for Improved Soldier Resilience and Decisionmaking at Every Level

“…the essence of ultimate decision remains impenetrable to the observer --, indeed, to the decider himself.”

- John F. Kennedy

Lerner, HKS

“…the essence of ultimate decision remains impenetrable to the observer --, indeed, to the decider himself.” - John F. Kennedy

Lerner, HKS

BACK UP SLIDES

In the brain…

Sensory Cortex

“high road”

Sensory Thalamus

Amygdala

Emotional Stimulus

Emotional Responses

“low road”

Low road = 12 milliseconds High road = 24 milliseconds

The temporal primacy of emotion means that any attempt to exert cognitive control comes AFTER the emotions have already been activated.

Lerner, Slide 7

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Expected Emotion

Anticipatory Emotion

Incidental Emotion

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Emotion exerts normative influence

Emotion felt at time of decision

(Loewenstein & Lerner, 2003, in Handbook of Affective Science)

Historically, emotion attracted little attention from decision researchers. Even psychological

critiques of rational actor models focused exclusively on cognition.

Lerner, Slide 10

Emotion attracts considerable attention. Most models rely on

valence and/or arousal.

Are these the only dimensions that matter for JDM?

Hi Activation

Low Activation

Negative Valence

Happiness

Serenity

Disgust

Sadness

Positive Valence

Appraisal Tendency: (Def.) A proclivity to perceive new information in

ways that are consistent with the original appraisal themes of an emotion (Lerner & Keltner, 2000)

Research strategy: Compare emotions that are highly differentiated in

their appraisal themes on judgments/choices that relate to that appraisal theme.

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With respect to the self, anger creates an optimistic perceptual lens.

This lens, which we call an “appraisal tendency,” triggers distinct judgment, behavioral, and biological consequences.

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Appraisal Tendency

Fear Anger

Mood-Congruent/ Valence

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People are risk seeking if they prefer a gamble to a sure outcome of equal or greater expected value Example: if they prefer a coin flip that pays either

$20 or $0 over a sure outcome of $10 or more. “Excessive” risk taking occurs when people

prefer a gamble over a sure outcome of greater expected value.

Larrick, R. P., Heath, C., & Wu, G. (2009). Goal-induced risk taking in and decision making. Social Cognition, 27 (3) 343.

Conclusion: People are risk averse in the gain frame and risk seeking in the loss frame

New Influenza: Results

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%

Gain Frame Loss Frame Gain Frame Loss Frame Gain Frame Loss Frame

Tversky & Kahneman(1987)

S&LG Classroom Results(June 2010)

S&LG Classroom Results(July 2010)

Sure Thing Gamble

Emotion and Risk Taking

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•Overly contentious •Sub-optimal processing of

information

Stress decreases the quality of agreements in

complex cognitive tasks.

•Chronic stress predicts anxiety, depression, and heart disease – all leading causes of morbidity and mortality in the US.

Stress increases

disease and death.

More than just a bad hair day… Two biological stress response systems are affected

The Sympathetic Nervous System (SNS), a branch of the Autonomic Nervous System. Cardiovascular responses, useful indicator

The Hypothalamic Pituitary Adrenocortical

(HPA) Axis Cortisol, useful indicator

Do fear and anger have opposing influences on biological stress

responses?

Hypothesis: Stress is not unitary. Fear/anxiety versus indignation/anger will evoke

different responses Method: Classic Trier social stress paradigm

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Anger alters perceived control, a variable that has been identified as one of the most important factors in coping with stressful circumstances (for review, see Taylor’s Health Psychology).

Darwin (1872/1998) first proposed that facial expressions of emotion signal biological responses to challenges and opportunities.

Over a century later, scientists (e.g., Ekman) have

taken up Darwin’s hypothesis, making the biological significance of facial expression a topic of renewed scientific inquiry.

Code either [1+2+4] or [20] * = reliable muscle

Code either [4+7] or [17+24] or [23] * = reliable muscle

Emotions are powerful. Even incidental emotions drive decisions without our realizing it.

Incidental fear and anger exert opposite effects on risk perception, fear increasing the perception of risk and anger decreasing it.

These opposing patterns appear in risk-taking behavior as well as in cognitive and biological mechanisms.

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Conclusions Thus Far

• Consider the sunk cost bias • Question A: As the president of an airline company, you have invested 10 million

dollars of the company’s money into a research project. The purpose was to build a plane that would not be detected by conventional radar, in other words, a radar-blank plane. When the project is 90% completed, another firm begins marketing a plane that cannot be detected by radar. Also, it is apparent that their plane is much faster and far more economical than the plane your company is building. The question is: should you invest the last 10% of the research funds to finish your radar-blank plane?

• Question B: As president of an airline company, you have received a suggestion from one of your employees. The suggestion is to use the last 1 million dollars of your research funds to develop a plane that would not be detected by conventional radar, in other words, a radar-blank plane. However, another firm has just begun marketing a plane that cannot be detected by radar. Also, it is apparent that their plane is much faster and far more economical than the plane your company could build. The question is: should you invest the last million dollars of your research funds to build the radar-blank plane proposed by your employee?

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Why did we measure it? An important skill of

leadership. “Emotional

intelligence” not well supported empirically.

Reappraisal skills predict less susceptibility to sunk cost bias.

How did we measure it? ERQ, frequency ERQ, ability Mind in the eyes task

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• Become a “choice architect” – a leader who designs the context in which people make decisions.

Recognize that small and apparently insignificant details can have major impacts on people’s behavior.

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• Engage in counter-factual thought experiments 1. Reverse the frame on any choice

1. Example: Translate from gains to losses and vice versa

2. Example: If a prior investment has been made, imagine that it had not been made. 1. If too difficult, write up the case for someone who has not

made a prior investment.

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39

Heighten appraisals of predictability/certainty: Prepare your staffs for any aversive situations they may encounter. Recall the rats received the same shock but reacted

differently if they had a bell first. Especially important for announcing layoffs

Heighten appraisals of individual control:

Encourage your staffs to focus on what they, themselves, can control.

1. Implement the right kind accountability for

judgment and decision process, focusing on which cues shape decisions.

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1. Add structures that distance decision makers from

the impact of emotions.

• Example: Use a checklist even if you are expert

• Example: Add a cooling off period for re-visiting a key decision

• Example: Create a judgment model that calculates expected value of

completing options.

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“…the essence of ultimate decision remains impenetrable to the observer --, indeed, to the decider himself.”

- John F. Kennedy