a canadian commodity flow...

Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada 1

A Canadian Commodity Flow Survey Statistics Canada and Transport Canada

The Keck Center of the National Academies Washington, D.C. October 29, 2015

Transportation Research Board Commodity Flow Survey Workshop


Transportation Policy Drivers

Freight Analysis Framework

Data Dimensions

Canadian Commodity Flow Survey

Testing and Outstanding Issues

Next Steps

Outline


Gateways and corridors are enablers of Canada’s economic competitiveness (e.g. TPP)

Winston (2013): Assess network capacity to move freight (e.g. surge capacity)

Concerns for the environmental impacts of the sector (e.g. GHG emissions)

Heightened awareness of security and safety matters (e.g. dangerous goods)

Freight Analysis Framework can inform these issues

Canadian Transportation Policy Drivers

30/10/2015 Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada 4

O/D ER1 ER2 ... ERj ... ER76

EX ∑

ER1

ER2

...

ERi

...

ER76

IM

∑ ∑∑

= Flow of Commodity x by Mode y from Origin i to Destination j

A Canadian Freight Analysis Framework


Geography: 76 Economic Regions (ER) OR 45 Urban Areas (CMAs) + rest of province;

Commodity: Use 5-digit SCTG for gathering data and 2-digit SCTG (n = 42) for dissemination; and

Modal and Routing Detail: Similar to U.S. typology with concern on how best to determine routing?

Framework: Data Dimensions


Currently, some data collected from carriers that deliver the goods (NAICS 48-49, Trucking Commodity O-D, Monthly Railway, marine):

o Surveys are modal-based reflecting financial performance for regulatory purposes;

o Programs include imports while often excluding own-account (e.g. private trucking); and

o Non-integrated (i.e. modal segments) and incomplete weight-based freight flows.

Freight Flows: Carrier-Based


Alternatively, freight flow data can be collected directly from the shippers (NAICS 11, 21, 31-33, 41, 44-45), for example the U.S. CFS:

o Comprehensive and integrated (i.e. freight flows from true origin to final destination);

o Excludes imports but includes all modes and collects both value & weight of shipments;

o With policy focus on system performance, able to track commodity flows in their entirety.

Freight Flows: Shipper-Based

8

Transport Canada Data Needs Assessment


2014 Nov Transport Canada asked Statistics Canada to examine a Canadian Commodity Flow Survey (CCFS)

2015 Jan Meet U.S. BTS and Census Bureau Mar Draft feasibility study, Canadian CFS May QDRC Phase I testing of concept May CTRF ½ day session on Transportation Data Jun NATS conference, meet with BTS and USCB Jul Proposed 2016 Canadian CFS pilot study Aug QDRC Phase II testing of instrument Sep Planning 2016 CCFS pilot, costing 2017 survey Oct Washington CFS Workshop.

Developments


Statistics Canada’s (QDRC) tested CCFS in two phases:

Phase I: Discuss with manufacturers / wholesalers in Ottawa, Montréal and Toronto (18) during May: o Activity, shipments, for-hire, routing, mode, tracking o Data availability, formats, response burden and data sharing

Phase II: Other types of industries in Toronto, Halifax, and Ottawa-Montréal (18) during August: o Comprehension, recall, external records, commodity coding o Tested an Excel shipping grid (thanks James!)

Questionnaire Design Resource Centre

Phase II: A “Canadianized” CFS



From Testing: o Export port unknown for shipments by parcel delivery /

freight forwarder (American experience?); o How to target 3PLs and distribution centres in NAICS

488 and 493, further investigation; o Issues of weight (lobster vs potatoes) and deadheading

containers (empty movements back to PEI); and o Collect all shipments for reference week, assume CFS

sample method reflects paper questionnaire?

Outstanding Issues


On-going Concerns: o Data sources for local movements from extractive

industries (e.g. forestry, agriculture)?; o Any consideration of tracking methods rather than

modeling route assignment and distance?; o Commodity classification (SCTG vs. NAPCS) and

improvements in edit & imputation routines?; and o Contain electronic collection via uploads or can it be

pushed to accept unstructured data?

Outstanding Issues


Studies:

QDRC Questionnaire and Cognitive Testing

Private Trucking (to plug carrier-side hole)

Methodology Study (to determine sample design)

o Operational Study (pre-contact, shipping location …)

o Nature of Business and Electronic Collection

o 2016 CCFS Pilot Test (next fiscal year, tbd)

Next Steps


CCFS Stage 1 Sampling: Establishments S

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n =

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n =

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n =

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1 144 13 1,437 3,447 3.0% 1.8% 1.2%2 38 13 462 1,125 1.2% 1.4% 0.7%3 144 45 5,116 13,856 . . .4 38 45 1,671 4,974 4.5% 3.6% 2.3%

Average Cell C.V.(by sample size)

Target Population = 308,203(10% revenue threshold)


Statistics Canada and Transport Canada acknowledge assistant from the BTS and the USCB during the development of a 2017 Canadian Commodity Flow Survey (CCFS)

Questions?

Robert Leore, Transport Canada [email protected] Larry McKeown, Statistics Canada [email protected]

Acknowledgement

mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

a canadian commodity flow...

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