a business gps for navigating the k-12 - tata interactive
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Data that drives your business. Marketing that drives results.
Data that drives your business. Marketing that drives results.
A Business GPS for Navigating the K-12 Market in an Uncertain Economy
Tata Interactive Learning Forum October 17, 2008
Nelson B. Heller, PhD, President
The Heller Reports, a QED Company Anne Wujcik, Managing Editor and Research Principal
The Heller Reports/QED
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Data that drives your business. Marketing that drives results.
Data that drives your business. Marketing that drives results.
Overview: K-12 Funding, Drivers, Enrollment, Adoptions
Anne WujcikManaging Editor and Research Principal
The Heller Reports/QED
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Education Funding Landscape
Total Taxpayer Investment in K-12 Education: $540 billion per year
– State Funding: 47.6%– Local Funding: 43.5%– Federal Funding: 8.9%
Source: National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) and National Education Association estimates, 2006-07
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Education Market Drivers
2007 2008 2009
Funding Environment
Adoptions
Enrollment
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Enrollment Growth
Source: NCES
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Adoptions
2008 Bid Year for 2009 Purchasing• California – K-8 reading/language arts• Florida – K-12 language arts• Texas – K-5, reading/language arts• Math – ID, KT, NV, NC, SC, OR
09: AL, FL, WV• Science – MS, NV, TN
09: NC, OR, VA
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State Financial Outlook
With the economic downturn now a reality state fiscal conditions are weakening
• FY 2007 Revenue Collections– 23 states - above forecast (42 states last year)
• FY 2008– 20 states face shortfalls totaling $13 billion– Ed cuts for AL, DE, FL, KT, ME, MD, NV, PA, RI, TN, VA
• FY 2009– 26 states project shortfalls totaling $40 billion in 2009– If downturn continues, 35 to 40 states will face budget
cuts in 2009• Locals hurt by property tax slowdown, rising fuel costs
Source: National Conference of State Legislatures' State Budget Update: June 2008
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Federal Funding
• Operating under a continuing resolution through March 6, 2009
– Holds funding steady at FY 08 level– Possibility of using a CR for all of FY 09
• Before the current fiscal crisis– McCain favored freezing all domestic discretionary
spending, pending a review; strong emphasis on the states’ role
– Obama proposed $18 billion a year in new spending on preschool and K-12 programs and well as addressing the “underfunding” of NCLB
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The Truth About the Recession
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Data that drives your business. Marketing that drives results.
Data that drives your business. Marketing that drives results.
Navigating a Down Economy
Nelson B. Heller, PhDPresident
The Heller Reports, a QED Company
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Insights from Previous Downturns
• Understand the unique factors
• Get ahead of the curve– Cut costs– Improve sales/marketing ROI
• Build for the future
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What’s Unique?
• NCLB
• Stressed fuel and transportation budgets
• Property tax safety valve restricted
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Getting Ahead of the Curve
• Objective cost cutting
• Streamline duplicative operations
• Sampling -> illegal copying?
• Communicate with your team
• Don’t cut product quality
• Improve sales/marketing ROI
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Boosting Sales/Marketing ROI
• Save money on campaigns• Increase ROI for campaigns• Improve mining of customer data• Increase insight into what’s working and
what isn’t• Accelerate response to campaign results• Reduce customer irritation
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Market Database Issues
• Issue: Marketing Data is in an accounting or other legacy system
• Concerns– Objectives of accounting are not the same as marketing– Interface unlikely to be marketing friendly– Likely requires technical expertise to interact with– It is almost a given a single customer can be represented by
several accounts which affects both targeting and analysis
• Solution– Need to extract and periodically update marketing data into a
separate database
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The Environment
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The Environment
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The Environment
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The Environment
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Market Database Issues
• Issue: Address data are not corrected in main system after campaigns
• Concerns– Too many undeliverables
– Moves are not caught unless new order comes (which is probably in a new record
• Solution– Use of systems such as the USPS ACS provides electronic
files of changes
– A separate marketing database might make it easier to update
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Market Database Issues
• Issue: Data are not being gathered comprehensively
• Concerns– Results in a sparse data set that significantly limits the ability
to target
• Solution– It’s difficult if not impossible to go backward to remedy– Focus on a few key elements and ensure they are being
gathered fully– Expand the element list as time goes on
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Market Database Issues
• Issue: Data Entry of much information is free-form
• Concerns– Errors with result in unusable and often uncorrectable
information– Fields may be used be used for “notes” not data– Entry of key elements may not be required
• Solution– Eliminate as many free form entries as possible– Lookups should be standard – Have forms guide the process as if they are a customer
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Market Database Issues
• Issue: Clear definitions of key concepts and coding standards do not exist
• Concerns– Even such basic terms as customer and prospect can mean
different things to different people/groups
– This can result in erroneous analytic results, list definition
– In most cases it can not be corrected
• Solution– Don’t trust to verbal. Have written definitions and ensure all
who use the definitions are aware of and use the definitions be they in marketing, sales, accounting or IT.
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Market Database Issues
• Issue: Marketing may have to request all list pulls, profiling and analysis which require technical intervention
• Concerns– Slows down definition and analysis resulting in missed
opportunities and the lack of ability to construct what-ifs
• Solution– Marketing needs a simple enough system for constructing
what-ifs and list development without technical intervention
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Level the Playing Field
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Data that drives your business. Marketing that drives results.
Data that drives your business. Marketing that drives results.
A Glimpse of the Next 20 Years
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Tomorrow’s Big Ideas
• Digital Mobility
• Distance Learning
• Platform wars: next generation portals
• OS/Web 2.0 business models
• Energy and Climate
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Digital mobility, 1989…
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… and today
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Kindle e-Book Reader
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Kindle – Smart and Wireless
• Free EV-DO connectivity
• 1-click wireless purchasing
• 200-600 book capacity
• Newspapers, blogs, web, search
• Dictionary, notes, bookmarks, clippings, search
• Low power consumption
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E-Ink/ePaper Display
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Is Kindle <-> books as iPod <-> media?
• Significant but not explosive sales• Bezos keynote at Book Expo America• But it’s not (yet)…
– Color– Very interactive– …a Netbook
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Distance Learning <-> Online Learning
• US K-12 market trends
• Accelerating internationally
• US K-12 acquisition flurry
• Market drivers
• Blended/Hybrid Learning
• implications
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K-12 DL/OL Insight
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US K-12 DL/OL
• $50 mil/yr, growing at 30%
• 42 states w significant OL pgms
• 26 state-wide/state-led VS
• 2014: 10% HS courses OL
• 2019: 50% HS courses OL
• 72% of DL districts expanding OL in coming year
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Accelerating internationally
• South Korea
• European Union
• Mexico
• Singapore
• India
• China
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UK-China Deal
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US K-12 acquisition flurry
• GlobalScholar.com (Knowledge Universe/Ignition Partners)
• Insight Schools (Apollo Group/U of Phoenix)
• Advanced Academics (DeVry)• U of Miami HS (Kaplan) • eCollege/eClassroom (Pearson)• Penn Foster (The Wright Group)
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K-12 Market drivers
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Why bother?
• ADA, counter-recessionary
• Credit recovery eclipsing AP
• Legislators/public motivated
• "Real estate leverage” and scalability
• Efficiency/Effectiveness
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Blended/Hybrid Learning Cinderella?
• Digital classrooms in B/M facilities
• Mainstream – not alternative -opportunity
• Flexnet, "the online education with class“ (U of Phoenix)
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implications for the K-12 market
• Books digital resources
• Learning module structure
• LMS/CMS
• Not just anytime, anywhere: its any way too
• Content aggregation no longer viable business model
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Hurdles
• Teachers and Unions
• Shortage of qualified instructors
• ADA funding competition
• Bandwidth
• Locally authored curricula
• Exam proctoring
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Platforms: next generation portals
• Your future home
• Escalating capabilities spectrum
• Growing list of players– Veterans– Newbies
• Business implications
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Chrome: blurring Web/Local boundary
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Desktop Web App Shortcuts
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Google Docs Spreadsheet App
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Platform Capabilities Spectrum
• Single sign-on and user authentication• SaaS or local• Collaboration, communication, social
networking• Content archives, lockers, e-portfolios• Rich multimedia
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Capabilities - more
• Scheduling• Courseware authoring• Assessment• Off-line functionality• Portable desktops• Students, educators, parents• API friendly• Business terms
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Veteran players
• Blackboard• K12 Inc.• Desire2Learn• Angel Learning• eClassroom• LearningStation• Moodle• Sakai
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Blackboard School Central
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Newbies
• Follett Digital Classroom
• IQ-ity
• Agilix's GoCourse
• Etech's Studywiz Spark
• VIP Tone
• Editure's MySuite
• Drupal
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Platform wars: business implications
• Compatibility– Pedagogy– Software architecture
• Business models– Mix’n’match– Platform intermediation– Support
• Auditing
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OS/Web 2.0 business models
• Open Content: Failure to Thrive?
• NROC: Nat'l Repository of Online Courses (MITE)
• Open API opportunities: Facebook
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Open Content: Failure to Thrive?
• Quality
• Coverage
• Standardization
• Alignment
• Marketing/sales
• Customer service, support
• Professional development
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Monterey Institute for Technology and Education
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National Repository of Online Courses (NROC)
• Open Educational Resource (OER)
• Courses contributed by academic institutions
• Editorial investment
• Income from Institutions
• Two parallel value propositions
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NROC: Editorial Investment
• Editorial accuracy
• Learning module structure
• Content correlation and alignment
• Assessments
• Problem sets
• Teachers guides
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NROC: Institutional Value Proposition
Student/Instructor proposition plus• High-quality content in full-course
sets• Maintenance• Compatibility with leading LMS/CMS
enterprise systems• Customizable delivery site• ASP/SAAS hosting
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Open API opportunities
Facebook partners
• Cramster.com
• Blackboard.com
• Scholastic
• …
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Cramster.com/Fb
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Blackboard.com/Fb
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Bb Sync Fb User Posts
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Energy and Climate: Business opportunities
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“Green is the new gold”
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Finding Opportunities
• Virtualization
• Cloud Computing
• Stressed School Budgets
• 21st Century Skills, STEM
• Sustainability
• HESA Federal Funding
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Contact Info
Nelson B. Heller, PhDPresident, The Heller Reports, a QED Company
Anne WujcikManaging Editor and Research Principal
The Heller Reports/QED(773) 594-9392
http://HellerReports.com