a boom in gas volume

8/8/2019 A Boom in gas volume

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JACCAR EQUITY RESEARCH – VIETNAM

Disclaimer : Please refer to important disclosuresat the end of this report. www.jaccar.net

An Pha S.G. Petrol JSC

A ‘boom’ in gas volume?• In term of 2008 business, the revenues reached VND 1,434 bn vs VND

1,400 bn forecasted, i.e. a difference of 2%. The gap is higher regarding the

net profit as we forecasted only VND 12 bn (an assumption very closed to

the unaudited accounts) vs VND 17.2 bn published. The difference came

mainly from: 1/ strong contribution of the other incomes and 2/ higher

financial results even if the company paid VND 15 bn for its interest rate

and suffered of foreigner exchange.

• 2008 dividends will be paid 7%/share by cash and bonus share at 3:1 ratio.

The company kept VND 965 m for its working capital.

•

The company disposed its investment capital in AnPha Hydroelectric toanother company and stopped the investment. Moreover, the company

hasn’t completed its plan of buying another gas company as mentioned in

our previous report due to lack of capital.

• For 2009, the company is expecting a net profit of VND 41.6 bn (USD 2.5

m) by increasing gas volume by 33%. But we think that it is quite

impossible to reach this target as we forecasted Vietnam LPG demand

won’t grow more than 6% y-o-y and the company’s market share is only

10%. So we have decided to keep our assumptions as we know 2009 will

be a very difficult year, especially with oil price and global demand

decreasing.

• 2009 investments could reach about VND 111 bn (USD 6.3 m), dedicated

to business infrastructure like storages, transportation and gas cylinders.

Jaccar reckons it is a huge investment for the company as ASP burned half

of its cash in 2008 while no huge investments were done.

• Otherwise we would like to underline that for 2009, the company has

planned to merge ANPHA PETROL JOINT STOCK COMPANY -

Subsidiary Co and GIA DINH LIQUID PETROLIEUM GAS CO.,Ltd -

Subsidiary Co. in order to reduce management fees and develop the market

shares with same brand of product in Ha Noi. Otherwise, the company

planned to convert MINH THONG GAZ JPGAZ - Subsidiary Co. to one-

member limited liability company form. However, there is no particular plan for this new strategy.

• Last key point regarding the management, M. Chairman Tran Minh Loan

left the post of General Director and will be replaced by M. Tr ươ ng Hữ u

Phướ c. At the same time, M. Tr ươ ng Hữ u Phướ c was appointed to be a

board member replacing M. Vu Hong Minh.

• At this stage, we keep our Reduce recommendation with a target price of

VND 7,872 (i.e. 0.65 USD). We are waiting for a meeting with the

management for adjusting any assumption for 2009 and 2010, as the

company is more aggressive than us in terms of net profit growth. We opt

for a cautious stance.

Performance

Rating: REDUCE

Target Price: 7,872 VND

Company DataPrice, close (Apr 20, 2009): 10,300 VND

Price, close (Apr 20, 2009): 0.62 USD

Market cap. (VND bn): 216

Market cap. (USD m): 12.98

Turnover per day: 57,260

Bloomberg code: ASP VN

Company ContactsMr. Tran Minh Loan (CEO)

Mr. Vu Van Thang (CFO)Mr. Vu Van Thang (IR)

http://www.anphapetrol.com

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

2/08 5/08 8/08 11/08 2/09

Price Price/VN Index

P&L Highlights(VND bn) 2006 2007 2008 2 009e 2 010e

Sales 347 1,265 1,435 1,296 1,607

EBIT 8 34 49 43 53

Op. Margin (%) 2% 3% 3% 3% 3%

Net Income 2 17 17 12 22

Net Margin (%) 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%

Fixed Assets 61 375 397 518 515

Debts 49 103 166 261 229

FCF (21) (159) (64) (135) 32

FCF yield (%) - - -693% ###### 309%

Key Ratios(x) 2006 2007 2008 2009e 2010e

EV/Sales - - 0.2 0.4 0.3

EV/EBITDA - - 4.1 10.9 8.2

EV/EBIT - - 4.5 10.8 8.2PE - - 6.8 12.0 8.4

P/Book - - 0.5 0.9 0.9

ROE (%) 8% 9% 10% 6% 9%

ROCE (%) 9% 7% 9% 7% 10%

Div. Yield (%) - - 15% 5% 5%

Payout ratio (%) 187% 135% 102% 72% 99%

Next Events

Analyst

Le Mai Thuy Linh

81-85 Ham Nghi

District 1Ho Chi Minh City

Tel: +84 8 39 14 90 60

[email protected]




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VALUATION

To valuate An Pha Petrol we looked at different methods: DCF, Peer Comparision (EV/Ebitda

and P/Book) and Sector-based transactions.

• We could not choose the DCF method. Indeed the Free Cash Flows of the company are

mostly negative;• The peer comparison seems to be more relevant although it was not easy to find a similar

business model;

• Sector-based transactions: we think that it is one of the most relevant method as the

sector is currently facing to a merger & acquisition wave, as mentioned in our sector

division.

Discounted cash flow (DCF)We didn’t choose to valuate ASP with the DCF method, because the company doesn’t have

recurrent positive FCF. The positive Free Cash Flow starting 2010 (see table below) depends on

the policy of cylinders sales. We estimate that the group can proceed to important cylinders sales

during this period but it could not sustain this rhythm as it would imply the sales of all assets.

According to the historical data, ASP did huge cylinders sales each 5 years.

The above figures indicate that the ASP's free cash flow (FCF) remained negative from 2005 to

2009e. Here are some explanations:

1/Low net margin,

2/Huge investments and

3/High dividend yield.

• Net margin: The primary business of ASP is to buy out LPG and resell it to consumers.

For this form of business, the cost of sales represents a rather high portion (accounting

for 90% of the sales revenue). According to Jaccar's financial analysis, it’s impossible to

reduce the costs of the raw materials, which implies a constant low operating and netmargins;

• Large investments: Despite its low return on investment, ASP is continuing to make large

investments. In 2007, the company spent VND 27bn (equivalent to 160% of net profit)

and in 2009, the investment planned more than VND 100 bn.

• Dividends: The Company has a generous dividend policy. In 2007, its dividend yield

came as high as 15% (VND 1,500 / share), accounting for 20% of net profit.. In 2008, it

has a dividend payment plan of VND 14.2 bn (equivalent to 85% of the net profit!). For

the two following years, its dividend payment schedule is expected at 80% - 90% of the

net income.

In conclusion, with its low net margin, large investment schemes, and excessively generous

dividend yield, the ASP’s free cash flow has remained negative from 2005 to 2010, making it

impossible to apply the DCF method in this case.

Cash-flows and Free Cash-Flows generation

Year Cash Flow Cash FlowFree Cash

FlowFree Cash

Flow(VND, m) (USD, m) (VND, m) (USD, m)

2006 60 3.6 (21) (1.2)2007 (21) (1.2) (159) (9.5)

2008 (19) (1.5) (64) (3.9)2009e 10 0.6 (135) (8.1)

2010e 19 1.1 32 1.9

2011e 17 1.0 33 2.0Source: Jaccar




www.jaccar.net 3

Peer comparisonTo value ASP, using peer comparision, Jaccar uses two sets of different peers. One set includes

big international companies, the other inlucdes regional smaller players, which are closer to

ASP. For this method, we used only two key multiples, as they are considered as the most

relevant by the players in the sector when they have to value the competitors in M&A cases.

Regional players

• Shell Refining Co Federation of Malaysia Bhd: is a company that refines and

manufactures petroleum products including liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), lubricant, oil

and bitumen. The company also blends lubricating oil;

• IPRC PCL (Thailand): is a company producing a variety of petrochemical products

including polypropylene, high density polyethylene and expandable polystyrene

primarily in packaging materials. Through its subsidiaries, the company produces and

distributes gasoline, LPG, asphalt, as well as electricity and construction materials;

• PetroChina Co Ltd (China): explores, develops and produces crude oil and natural gas.

The company also refines, transports, and distributes crude oil and petroleum products, as

well as produces and sells chemicals, and transmits markets and sells natural gas.

• Petronas Gas Berhad (Malaysia): is processing and separating natural gas into its

components from the gas field offshore Terengganu. The company stores, transports and

distributes these components as well as trades utilities to petrochemical.

Based on the EV/Ebitda multiple, we find the company’s share value of VND 8,025, i.e USD

0.45, recording a premium of 36% of the current price.

If we use at the same time the P/Book ratio, the valuation of ASP reaches VND 15 232, i.e.0.87

USD per share.

Before applying this method, we test the reliability of the book value (usually, we have to have a

rotation rate of the cylinder of 3% per month. This figure allows us to check the right level of

sales of the company).

International PlayersThe first player Gazprom is a Russian company which extracts, transports, stores and sells

natural gas. The company is the successor to the State-owned gas company. Gazprom owns andoperates Russia’s Unified Gas Supply system. The company has a monopoly in supplying gas in

the Russian Federation and exports natural gas to Western Europe.

Peer Comparison (EV/Ebitda)

Company NameLastPrice

Marketcap

EV/ Ebitda 2009e

EV/ Ebitda 2010e

EV/ Ebitda 2011e

Shell Refining Co. 9.85 814 7.86 7.52 -Petronas Gas Berhad 9.55 5,234 9.56 9.10 8.92

PetroChina Co Ltd 6.89 301 8.24 7.11 5.72

IRPC PCL (Thailand) 2.76 1,519 7.34 6.26 4.56Median 8.05 7.31 5.72Source: Bloomberg

A valuation of VND

8 025 per share based on

EV/Ebitda ratio vs…

…VND 15 232 per share

via P/Book ratio

Peer Comparison (P/Book)Company Name P/BookShell Refining Co Federation of Malaysia Bhd 1.54

IRPC PCL (Thailand) 2.43PetroChina Co Ltd 1.38

Petronas Berhad 0.79

Median 1.46Source: Bloomberg




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The second is BP London, which is an oil and petrochemicals company. The company explores

oil and natural gas, produces, refines, markets and supplies petroleum products. The company

also generates solar energy, manufactures and markets chemicals.

The next one is ConocoPhillips, an international, integrated energy company which operates in

several business segments. The company explores for and produces petroleum and refines,

markets, supplies and transports petroleum. The company also gathers and processes natural gas

and produces and distributes chemicals and plastics.

Total Gabon is the last one in the set of peer comparison “international players”. Total Gabon is

from France. The company explores for, produces and sells crude oil and natural gas. The

company’s sole operation is located in Gabon, Central Africa. The company has no subsidiaries

but does have a large investment program with companies based in Gabon.

Through this set, the share price will reach only VND 500. We think that this peer is not relevant

as 1/the player are too big compare with ASP, 2/some of them are suffering from special

situations like Gazprom (conflict with Ukraine and difficult environment on the Russian stock

market / Total Gabon has a thin liquidity as the free float is limited at less than 15%) and 3/the

key ones are facing short positions on the stock market due to the oil weakness. According to

these different arguments, we don’t apply this valuation multiple to ASP share.

Sector-based transactions

International Gas transactions (inEUR m)

Target Bidder Country Date Price EV P/Sales P/Ebitda

P/

Ebit PE EV/S

EV/E

bitda

EV/

Ebit PE

Gas Natural Mexico SA Sinca Inbursa Mexico 22/09/2008 328 328 - - - - - - - -

Caythorpe Gas Storage Centrica UK 22/09/2008 89 89 - - - - - - - -

Union Fenosa SA Gas Natural SDG Spain 31/07/2008 16,754 22,839 3.8 11.1 15.6 17 2.7 9 10.3 13

Distrigas and Co Fluxys SA Belgium 30/06/2008 958 958 4.9 - - - 4.9 - - -

Europa Mil D.O.O. Lukoil Europe oldings Croatia 30/04/2008 40 40 - - - - - - - -

Petrol AD Sofia Lukoil Bulgaria Bulgaria 24/04/2008 237 237 - - - - - - - -

Favorite Markets Mapco Express USA 27/08/2007 50 50 - - - - - - - -Shell Gas Amerigas Partner USA 30/04/2007 - - - - - - - - - -

Gasnalsa SA Naturgas Energia

Groupo SA Spain 9/9/2006 45 45 3.2 8.2 - - 3.2 8.2 - -

Bilbogas SA Naturgas Energia

Groupo SA Spain 3/5/2006 35 70 - - - - 6.4 - - -

Median 3.8 9.7 15.6 17.0 4.1 8.6 10.3 13.0

Average 4.0 9.7 15.6 17.0 4.3 8.6 10.3 13.0Source: Mergermarket.com

If we apply the same method as for the peer comparison, i.e. applying only EV/Ebitda multiple

(median), we obtain a share price of VND 9 262 (USD 0.54).

Peer Comparison

Company Name Last PriceMarket

capEV/Ebitda

2009eEV/Ebitda

2010eEV/Ebitda

2011eGazprom 4.10 100,612 2.65 3.70 3.64BP London 448.5 123,720 4.50 3.57 3.13

ConocoPhilips 40.17 61,149 4.75 3.42 3.01Total Gabon 220 1,280 2.28 1.85 1.35

Median 3.57 1.85 1.35Source Jaccar




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Conclusion

As a result, taking the regional peer comparison and the sector-based transaction methods shown

above, and using a 15% country discount on the price, we arrive at a target price of VND 7 872

(USD 0.65). Also, we keep our Reduce recommendation.

Valuation per share summary

VND

VND (in.

discount) USDRegional peer comparison (EV/Ebitda) 8 025 6 821 0.39

Regional peer comparison (P/Book) 15 232 12 947 0.73

Sector-based transactions 9 262 7 872 0.65

Median 9 262 7 872 0.65Source: Jaccar




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Income Statement (VND bn) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009e 2010e 2011eSales 76 166 347 1,265 1,435 1,296 1,607 1,844

% of growth - 119% 109% 265% 13% -10% 24% 15%

Price (%) 0% -173,898% -3% 40% 22% -2% -1% 0%

Volume (%) 0% 174,018% 112% 225% -9% -5% 25% 15%

Organic growth (%) 0% 119% 109% 265% 13% -10% 24% 15%

External growth (%) 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Other income 0 0 0 (1) (6) 0 0 0

Total Sales 76 166 347 1,264 1,435 1,296 1,607 1,844

Change in inventories 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

COGS 73 155 335 1,205 1,304 1,219 1,510 1,733

Gross Income 3 10 11 59 125 78 96 111

% of growth - 255% 10% 418% 111% -38% 24% 15%

Other external costs 1 2 2 27 50 23 27 31

Taxes 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Personnel costs 0 1 1 17 21 13 16 18

EBITDA 2 8 8 14 54 42 53 61

% of growth - 353% 4% 77% 273% -21% 26% 15%

Depreciation 0 0 0 4 13 5 5 6

Reported provisions 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Other incomes and charges 0 0 0 24 7 5 5 6

EBIT 2 8 8 34 49 43 53 50

% of growth - 352% 5% 335% 42% -12% 25% -6%

Interest income 0 0 1 3 4 0 0 0

Interest expenses 0 2 6 8 20 15 15 16

Interest balance (0) (1) (5) (5) (16) (15) (15) (15)

Pretax Income 1 6 3 29 32 28 38 35

% of growth - 380% -55% 962% 13% -15% 38% -9%

Income taxes 0 1 0 7 10 3 5 6

Tax rate 30% 22% 4% 26% 29% 13% 13% 16%

Minority interest 0 0 0 4 6 3 3 3

Associate income - - - - - - - -

Net income before extraordinary items 1 5 2 17 17 21 30 26

% of growth - 435% -47% 578% 2% 23% 43% -15%

Extraordinary items - - - - 0 (9) (9) (9)

Net Income 1 5 2 17 17 12 22 17

% of growth - 435% -47% 578% 2% -28% 73% -21%

Division breakdown / Sales (% of growth)

LPG Selling - - 147% 295% 10% -9% 22% 12%Shipping Servise - - 8% 33% 24% 28% 46% 0%

Others - - -94% 31% -100% high 41% 0%

Geographical breakdown / Sales (% of growth)

Viet Nam - - 109% 265% 13% -10% 24% 15%

- - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - -

Cash Flow Statement (VND bn) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009e 2010e 2011eNet Income 1 5 2 17 17 12 22 17

Depreciation and amortization 0 0 0 14 13 5 5 6

Capital gains/losses on asset disposals 0 0 0 (14) (6) (6) 0 0

Others 0 0 0 19 11 0 0 0

Cash Flow from Operations - Gross 0 0 0 35 34 11 27 23

Net change in operating assets & liabs 0 0 0 (56) 59 1 (8) (6)

Cash Flow from Operations - Net (4) (3) 60 (21) (24) 10 19 17

Gross CAPEX 34 62 37 40 11 149 30 5Net CAPEX 34 23 33 27 (3) 116 (22) (42)

Money spent on acquisitions 0 21 16 145 (0) 0 0 0

Cash received from divestment 0 (0) (1) (1) 4 0 0 0

Net financial investment 0 21 15 144 4 0 0 0

Dividends paid 0 0 9 3 17 12 12 10

Dividends received 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Others (1) 3 24 (36) 23 17 (4) 16

FCF (36) (50) (21) (159) (64) (135) 32 33

Increase in shareholder equity 24 33 11 181 0 40 0 0

Excess Cash Flow (13) (17) (9) 22 (64) (95) 32 33

Change in long term debt 14 18 16 24 8 95 (32) (44)

Foreign exchange rate effect - - 0 0 0 0 0 0

Net Increase (Decrease) Cash & Equivs 2 0 7 46 (56) 0 0 (11)




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Balance Sheet (VND bn) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009e 2010e 2011e

Gross tangible fixed assets 17 41 60 119 105 221 251 256

Accumulated depreciation tangibles 1 5 11 30 31 41 41 41

Tangible Fixed Assets 16 36 49 89 74 183 228 251

% of growth - 131% 34% 83% -17% 147% 25% 10%

Gross intangible fixed assets 0 0 0 101 14 14 14 14

Accumulated depreciation intangibles 0 0 0 0 0 9 18 26

Intangible Fixed Assets 0 0 0 101 14 5 (4) (13)of which goodwill 0 0 0 88 79 70 61 53

Long Term Investments - - - - - - - -

% of growth - - - - - - - -

Construction work in progress 0 0 0 0 0 3 19 36

Long term deposit 10 0 0 0 0 0 3 3

Long term prepaid expenses - - - - - - - -

Long term assets 6 11 12 185 310 329 288 320

Total Financial Fixed Assets 10 0 0 0 0 0 3 3

% of growth - -96% n/m n/m -52% 611% 889% 5%

Fixed Assets 32 47 61 375 397 518 515 561

% of growth - 46% 29% 513% 6% 30% -0% 9%

Inventories 0 1 1 14 5 5 6 7

Trade debtors 15 29 44 104 89 81 100 115

Prepayments 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Provisions - - - - - - - -Other debtors 1 3 15 24 16 15 18 21

Cash Bank 2 2 9 67 37 15 15 15

Marketable securities 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Accruals and deferrals - - - - - 69 50 0

Current Assets 18 35 69 210 147 185 189 158

% of growth - 92% 100% 203% -30% 25% 2% -17%

Shareholders Equity 25 36 33 233 229 269 279 297

% of growth - 41% -7% 608% -2% 18% 3% 7%

Minority interest 0 6 11 31 27 37 30 30

Discretionary provisions 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Bonus and welfare funds 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 2

Training funds - - - - - - - -

Fund for board of management - - - - - - - -

Other funds 0 0 0 - - - - -Provisions - total 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 2

Debt - long term 0 20 10 4 59 154 122 78

Debt - short term 14 12 38 99 107 107 107 58

Debts 14 32 49 103 166 261 229 136

% of growth - 127% 51% 111% 61% 58% -12% -41%

Accounts payable 10 6 32 131 133 125 154 177

Other current liabilities 1 2 6 86 10 9 11 13

Accruals and deferrals - - - - - - - 64

Total Liabilities 50 82 131 585 567 702 705 719

Treasury shares - - - - - - - -

Working capital 5 25 23 (75) (33) (34) (42) (48)

% of growth - 359% -9% n/m n/m n/m n/m n/m

Tangible Fixed Assets 16 36 49 89 74 183 228 251

Average Capital Employed 38 72 84 300 365 484 473 513

Off-Balance Sheet - - - - - - - -

Off-balance lease liabilities 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Off-balance rental liabilities 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Others Off-balance liabilities 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Valuation (x) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009e 2010e 2011eEV/Sales - - - - 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2

EV/EBITDA - - - - 4.1 10.9 8.2 5.6

EV/EBIT - - - - 4.5 10.8 8.2 6.9

PE - - - - 6.8 12.0 8.4 9.8

PEG - - - - - 76% -30% 17%

P/Book - - - - 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.9

Dividend yield (%) - - - - 15% 5% 5% 4%




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Per Share Data (k VND) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009e 2010e 2011eShares outstanding (millions) - - 0 13 13 25 25 25

Number of share fully diluted (millions) - - - 9 13 25 25 25

EPS - Basic - Before extras - - - 1 1 1 1 1

EPS - Basic - After extras - - - 1 1 1 1 1

EPS - Diluted - Before extras - - - - - - - -

EPS - Diluted - After extras - - - - - - - -

Latest price - - - - 9.2 10.3 10.3 10.3High price - - - - 26.1 11.2 - -

Low price - - - - 6.3 7.0 - -

Average price - - - - 9.3 10.3 10.3 10.3

Dividend per share - - - 0 1 1 1 0

Book value per share - - - 18 18 11 11 12

Cash Flow from Oper Per Share - Gross - - - 3 3 0 1 1

Cash Flow from Oper Per Share - Net - - - (2) (2) 0 1 1

Free Cash Flow Per Share - - - (13) (5) (5) 1 1

Profitability Ratios (%) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009e 2010e 2011eGross Margin 4% 6% 3% 5% 9% 6% 6% 6%

EBITDA Margin 2% 5% 2% 1% 4% 3% 3% 3%

Operating Margin 2% 5% 2% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%

Net Margin 1% 3% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%

Division breakdown / Margins

EBITDA Margin

LPG Selling - 92% 57% 76% 48% 93% 92% 90%

Shipping Servise - 8% 43% 23% 16% 6% 8% 10%

Others - 0% -0% 1% 35% 0% 0% 0%

Operating Margin

LPG Selling - - - - - - - -

Shipping Servise - - - - - - - -

Others - - - - - - - -

Net Margin

LPG Selling - - - - - - - -


Others - - - - - - - -

Geographical breakdown / Margins

EBITDA Margin Viet Nam - 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

- - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - -

Operating Margin

Viet Nam - 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

- - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - -

Net Margin

Viet Nam - 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

- - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - -

Solvability & Efficiency Ratios (%) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009e 2010e 2011eROE 4% 13% 8% 9% 10% 6% 9% 7%

ROCE 3% 9% 9% 7% 9% 7% 10% 8%

Gearing 51% 86% 121% 15% 56% 91% 77% 40%

Equity / Total Assets 50% 43% 25% 40% 40% 38% 40% 41%

Pay-out Ratio - 0% 187% 135% 102% 72% 99% 46%

Interest cover 3.9 4.8 1.3 1.7 2.7 2.7 3.5 3.9

Inventories (nb of days) 0.0 2.6 1.3 4.1 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3

Trade debtors (nb of days) 72.4 62.2 45.5 29.6 22.4 22.4 22.4 22.4

Accounts payable (nb of days) 49.9 13.0 33.0 37.4 33.5 34.6 34.6 34.6

Working capital (nb of days) 22.5 51.8 13.9 (3.8) (9.8) (11.0) (11.0) (11.0)

Number of employees (FTE's) - - - - - - - -

Sales / Employee - - - - - - - -

EBIT / Employee - - - - - - - -

Salary / Employee - - - - - - - -

Bonus / Personnel costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1




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Income Statement (USD m) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009e 2010e 2011eSales 4.53 9.95 20.81 75.90 86.10 77.78 96.39 110.64

% of growth - 119% 109% 265% 13% -10% 24% 15%

Price (%) 0% -173,898% -3% 40% 22% -2% -1% 0%

Volume (%) 0% 174,018% 112% 225% -9% -5% 25% 15%

Organic growth (%) 0% 119% 109% 265% 13% -10% 24% 15%

External growth (%) 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Other income 0.00 0.00 0.00 (0.05) (0.35) 0.00 0.00 0.00

Total Sales 4.53 9.95 20.81 75.85 86.10 77.78 96.39 110.64

Change in inventories 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

COGS 4.36 9.32 20.13 72.30 78.25 73.12 90.61 104.00

Gross Income 0.18 0.62 0.68 3.55 7.49 4.67 5.78 6.64

% of growth - 255% 10% 418% 111% -38% 24% 15%

Other external costs 0.05 0.11 0.13 1.64 2.97 1.35 1.62 1.86

Taxes 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Personnel costs 0.02 0.05 0.07 1.04 1.28 0.77 0.95 1.10

EBITDA 0.10 0.47 0.49 0.87 3.24 2.54 3.21 3.68

% of growth - 353% 4% 77% 273% -21% 26% 15%

Depreciation 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.23 0.75 0.28 0.32 0.37

Reported provisions 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Other incomes and charges 0.00 0.00 0.01 1.42 0.43 0.30 0.30 0.33

EBIT 0.10 0.45 0.47 2.05 2.91 2.56 3.19 2.99

% of growth - 352% 5% 335% 42% -12% 25% -6%

Interest income 0.00 0.01 0.07 0.17 0.24 0.03 0.03 0.03

Interest expenses 0.03 0.10 0.38 0.50 1.21 0.93 0.93 0.94

Interest balance (0.02) (0.09) (0.31) (0.33) (0.97) (0.90) (0.90) (0.91)

Pretax Income 0.08 0.36 0.16 1.73 1.95 1.66 2.29 2.08

% of growth - 380% -55% 962% 13% -15% 38% -9%

Income taxes 0.02 0.08 0.01 0.44 0.57 0.21 0.29 0.34

Tax rate 30% 22% 4% 26% 29% 13% 13% 16%

Minority interest 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.27 0.34 0.18 0.18 0.18

Associate income - - - - - - - -

Net income before extraordinary items 0.05 0.28 0.15 1.01 1.04 1.28 1.82 1.56

% of growth - 435% -47% 578% 2% 23% 43% -15%

Extraordinary items - - - - 0.00 (0.53) (0.53) (0.53)

Net Income 0.05 0.28 0.15 1.01 1.04 0.75 1.30 1.03

% of growth - 435% -47% 578% 2% -28% 73% -21%

Division breakdown / Sales (% of growth)

LPG Selling - - 147% 295% 10% -9% 22% 12%Shipping Servise - - 8% 33% 24% 28% 46% 0%

Others - - -94% 31% -100% high 41% 0%

Geographical breakdown / Sales (% of growth)

Viet Nam - - 109% 265% 13% -10% 24% 15%

- - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - -

Cash Flow Statement (USD m) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009e 2010e 2011eNet Income 0.05 0.28 0.15 1.01 1.04 0.75 1.30 1.03

Depreciation and amortization 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.82 0.75 0.28 0.32 0.37

Capital gains/losses on asset disposals 0.00 0.00 0.00 (0.86) (0.38) (0.38) 0.00 0.00

Others 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.13 0.64 0.00 0.00 0.00

Cash Flow from Operations - Gross 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.10 2.05 0.65 1.62 1.40

Net change in operating assets & liabs 0.00 0.00 0.00 (3.34) 3.52 0.08 (0.49) (0.37)

Cash Flow from Operations - Net (0.22) (0.17) 3.62 (1.24) (1.47) 0.58 1.13 1.02

Gross CAPEX 2.01 3.75 2.21 2.39 0.69 8.92 1.80 0.30Net CAPEX 2.01 1.37 2.01 1.63 (0.20) 6.96 (1.29) (2.49)

Money spent on acquisitions 0.00 1.26 0.99 8.68 (0.03) 0.00 0.00 0.00

Cash received from divestment 0.00 (0.00) (0.09) (0.04) 0.24 0.00 0.00 0.00

Net financial investment 0.00 1.26 0.90 8.65 0.22 0.00 0.00 0.00

Dividends paid 0.00 0.00 0.53 0.20 1.03 0.74 0.74 0.59

Dividends received 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Others (0.05) 0.20 1.42 (2.17) 1.36 0.99 (0.23) 0.94

FCF (2.19) (3.00) (1.24) (9.54) (3.87) (8.12) 1.91 1.99

Increase in shareholder equity 1.43 1.97 0.69 10.89 0.00 2.40 0.00 0.00

Excess Cash Flow (0.76) (1.03) (0.56) 1.34 (3.87) (5.72) 1.91 1.99

Change in long term debt 0.86 1.06 0.98 1.44 0.50 5.72 (1.91) (2.65)

Foreign exchange rate effect - - 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Net Increase (Decrease) Cash & Equivs 0.10 0.02 0.43 2.78 (3.37) 0.00 0.00 (0.66)




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Balance Sheet (USD m) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009e 2010e 2011eGross tangible fixed assets 1.01 2.47 3.58 7.16 6.29 13.25 15.05 15.35

Accumulated depreciation tangibles 0.06 0.28 0.66 1.81 1.85 2.43 2.48 2.46

Tangible Fixed Assets 0.95 2.19 2.92 5.35 4.45 10.99 13.69 15.06

% of growth - 131% 34% 83% -17% 147% 25% 10%

Gross intangible fixed assets 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.09 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83

Accumulated depreciation intangibles 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.54 1.06 1.59

Intangible Fixed Assets 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.09 0.82 0.29 (0.23) (0.76)of which goodwill 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.26 4.73 4.21 3.68 3.15

Long Term Investments - - - - - - - -

% of growth - - - - - - - -

Construction work in progress 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.17 1.12 2.17

Long term deposit 0.62 0.02 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.02 0.18 0.19

Long term prepaid expenses - - - - - - - -

Long term assets 0.38 0.63 0.75 11.08 18.57 19.76 17.29 19.19

Total Financial Fixed Assets 0.62 0.02 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.02 0.18 0.19

% of growth - -96% n/m n/m -52% 611% 889% 5%

Fixed Assets 1.95 2.84 3.67 22.52 23.84 31.06 30.93 33.69

% of growth - 46% 29% 513% 6% 30% -0% 9%

Inventories 0.00 0.07 0.08 0.86 0.31 0.28 0.34 0.40

Trade debtors 0.91 1.72 2.63 6.23 5.35 4.83 5.99 6.87

Prepayments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Provisions - - - - - - - -Other debtors 0.07 0.17 0.90 1.44 0.98 0.88 1.09 1.25

Cash Bank 0.10 0.12 0.55 4.05 2.22 0.93 0.93 0.93

Marketable securities 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Accruals and deferrals - - - - - 4.17 3.00 0.00

Current Assets 1.08 2.08 4.16 12.58 8.85 11.09 11.36 9.45

% of growth - 92% 100% 203% -30% 25% 2% -17%

Shareholders Equity 1.51 2.13 1.97 13.96 13.75 16.16 16.71 17.81

% of growth - 41% -7% 608% -2% 18% 3% 7%

Minority interest 0.00 0.37 0.67 1.87 1.64 2.23 1.80 1.80

Discretionary provisions 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01

Bonus and welfare funds 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.11

Training funds - - - - - - - -

Fund for board of management - - - - - - - -

Other funds 0.00 0.00 0.00 - - - - -Provisions - total 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.11

Debt - long term 0.00 1.23 0.62 0.26 3.53 9.25 7.34 4.69

Debt - short term 0.86 0.72 2.31 5.92 6.41 6.41 6.41 3.45

Debts 0.86 1.95 2.93 6.18 9.94 15.66 13.75 8.14

% of growth - 127% 51% 111% 61% 58% -12% -41%

Accounts payable 0.63 0.36 1.91 7.88 8.00 7.48 9.27 10.64

Other current liabilities 0.03 0.11 0.35 5.17 0.59 0.55 0.68 0.78

Accruals and deferrals - - - - - - - 3.85

Total Liabilities 3.03 4.92 7.83 35.10 33.99 42.15 42.28 43.14

Treasury shares - - - - - - - -

Working capital 0.32 1.49 1.36 (4.53) (1.96) (2.03) (2.52) (2.89)

% of growth - 359% -9% n/m n/m n/m n/m n/m

Tangible Fixed Assets 0.95 2.19 2.92 5.35 4.45 10.99 13.69 15.06

Average Capital Employed 2.27 4.33 5.03 17.99 21.88 29.03 28.41 30.79

Off-Balance Sheet - - - - - - - -

Off-balance lease liabilities 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Off-balance rental liabilities 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Others Off-balance liabilities 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Valuation (x) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009e 2010e 2011eEV/Sales - - - - 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2

EV/EBITDA - - - - 4.1 10.9 8.2 5.6

EV/EBIT - - - - 4.5 10.8 8.2 6.9

PE - - - - 6.8 12.0 8.4 9.8

PEG - - - - - 76% -30% 17%

P/Book - - - - 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.9

Dividend yield (%) - - - - 15% 5% 5% 4%




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Per Share Data (USD) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009e 2010e 2011eShares outstanding (millions) - - 0.00 12.60 12.60 24.70 24.70 24.70

Number of share fully diluted (millions) - - - 9.25 12.60 24.70 24.70 24.70

EPS - Basic - Before extras - - - 0.08 0.08 0.05 0.07 0.06

EPS - Basic - After extras - - - 0.08 0.08 0.03 0.05 0.04

EPS - Diluted - Before extras - - - - - - - -

EPS - Diluted - After extras - - - - - - - -

Latest price - - - - 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6High price - - - - 1.6 0.7 - -

Low price - - - - 0.4 0.4 - -

Average price - - - - 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6

Dividend per share - - - 0.02 0.08 0.03 0.03 0.02

Book value per share - - - 1.11 1.09 0.65 0.68 0.72

Cash Flow from Oper Per Share - Gross - - - 0.17 0.16 0.03 0.07 0.06

Cash Flow from Oper Per Share - Net - - - (0.10) (0.12) 0.02 0.05 0.04

Free Cash Flow Per Share - - - (0.76) (0.31) (0.33) 0.08 0.08

Profitability Ratios (%) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009e 2010e 2011eGross Margin 4% 6% 3% 5% 9% 6% 6% 6%

EBITDA Margin 2% 5% 2% 1% 4% 3% 3% 3%

Operating Margin 2% 5% 2% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%

Net Margin 1% 3% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%

Division breakdown / Margins

EBITDA Margin

LPG Selling - 92% 57% 76% 48% 93% 92% 90%

Shipping Servise - 8% 43% 23% 16% 6% 8% 10%

Others - 0% -0% 1% 35% 0% 0% 0%

Operating Margin

LPG Selling - - - - - - - -


Others - - - - - - - -

Net Margin

LPG Selling - - - - - - - -


Others - - - - - - - -

Geographical breakdown / Margins

EBITDA Margin Viet Nam - 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

- - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - -

Operating Margin

Viet Nam - 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

- - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - -

Net Margin

Viet Nam - 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

- - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - -

Solvability & Efficiency Ratios (%) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009e 2010e 2011eROE 4% 13% 8% 9% 10% 6% 9% 7%

ROCE 3% 9% 9% 7% 9% 7% 10% 8%

Gearing 51% 86% 121% 15% 56% 91% 77% 40%

Equity / Total Assets 50% 43% 25% 40% 40% 38% 40% 41%

Pay-out Ratio - 0% 187% 135% 102% 72% 99% 46%

Interest cover 3.9 4.8 1.3 1.7 2.7 2.7 3.5 3.9

Inventories (nb of days) 0.0 2.6 1.3 4.1 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3

Trade debtors (nb of days) 72.4 62.2 45.5 29.6 22.4 22.4 22.4 22.4

Accounts payable (nb of days) 49.9 13.0 33.0 37.4 33.5 34.6 34.6 34.6

Working capital (nb of days) 22.5 51.8 13.9 (3.8) (9.8) (11.0) (11.0) (11.0)

Number of employees (FTE's) - - - - - - - -

Sales / Employee - - - - - - - -

EBIT / Employee - - - - - - - -

Salary / Employee - - - - - - - -

Bonus / Personnel costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1




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Price Performance - An Pha S.G. Petrol JSC

Analyst Certification

I, Le Mai Thuy Linh, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personalviews about the subject sector(s) and subject company (ies). The compensation of the analyst who prepared thisreport is determined exclusively by research management and senior management.

Important Disclosures

This report has been prepared by Jaccar Investment Managers (“JACCAR”). This document is confidential and isintended solely for the information of the person to which it has been delivered. It is not to be reproduced ortransmitted, in whole or in part, by any means, to third parties without the written prior consent of JACCAR.

Information contained herein is not intended to be a complete statement or summary of the securities, markets ordevelopments referred to in the report. JACCAR does not undertake that investors will obtain profits nor acceptany liability for any investment losses. Investments involve risks and investors should exercise prudence in makingtheir investment decisions. Prior to entering into any proposed transaction you are advised to engage in your owntax, accounting, regulatory, legal or other professionals as you deem necessary. The report should not beregarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment. Any opinions expressed in this reportare subject to change without notice.

Research will initiate, update and cease coverage solely at the discretion of JACCAR. The analysis containedherein is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results. Theanalyst(s) responsible for the preparation of this report may interact with trading desk personnel, sales personneland other interested parties for the purpose of gathering, synthesizing and interpreting market information.JACCAR is under no obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein.

Neither JACCAR nor any of directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising outof the use of all or any part of this report.

4,0006,0008,000

10,00012,00014,00016,000

18,00020,00022,00024,00026,00028,000

Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09

BUY ACCUMULATE REDUCE SELL TARGET PRICE

Rating History

Date Rating

23. Jan 09 REDUCE

Distribution of Ratings

Investment Rating Distribution: Global Group

Count Percent

BUY 5 25%

ACCUMULATE 5 25%

REDUCE 8 40%

SELL 2 10%

Investment Rating Distribution: Oil & Gas

Count Percent

BUY 5 25%

ACCUMULATE 5 25%

REDUCE 8 40%SELL 2 10%




www.jaccar.net 13

JACCAR Ratings and Valuation Methodology

Company Rating Definition (within a 12 month period)

BUY: Expected to outperform the market by at least 15% or moreACCUMULATE: Expected to outperform the market by 5%REDUCE: Expected to perform in line with the market

SELL: Expected to underperform the market by at least 10%

Valuation Methodology

The target price are based on several methods which include, but not restricted to analyses of market risks, growthrate, revenue stream, DCF (discounted cash flows), EBITDA, Net attributable profit, FCF (free cash flows),EV/SALES, EV/EBITDA, EV/EBIT, PE, P/CF, P/Book, ROE (Return on Equity), NAV (Net Asset Value), DividendReturns and SOP (sum of the parts).

RiskPast performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Foreign currency rates of exchange may adverselyaffect the value, price or income of any security or related instrument mentioned in this report. For investment

advice, trade execution or other enquiries, clients should contact their local sales representative .

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