9.7 % ↓ $8.8 t · global gdp loss equivalents source: international monetary fund $2.9 trillion...
TRANSCRIPT
9.7 % ↓$8.8 T ↓
Global GDP
Source: Asian Development Bank
Global GDP Loss Equivalents
Source: International Monetary Fund
$2.9 Trillion
#7
$3.2 Trillion
#5
$2.6 Trillion
#8
Global Job Losses
Global Job Losses
158 – 224 MM
Global Job Loss Equivalents
Source: CIA Factbook
160 Million
#3
65 Million
#8
Global Job Loss Equivalents
Source: International Monetary Fund
Countries Requesting Assistance from the IMF*
100Requests Approved*
55*As of May 18, 2020
2.3 2.2 3.2 3.5 2.5 3.5 2.9 1.13.1 2.0 2.1 2.1
-4.8
-36.0
-31.0
-26.0
-21.0
-16.0
-11.0
-6.0
-1.0
4.0
Q1/17 Q3/17 Q1/18 Q3/18 Q1/19 Q3/19 Q1/20 Q3/20
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
Growth Rate, % Change from Previous Quarter
US Gross Domestic Product
2.3 2.2 3.2 3.5 2.5 3.5 2.9 1.13.1 2.0 2.1 2.1
-4.8
-33.3-36.0
-31.0
-26.0
-21.0
-16.0
-11.0
-6.0
-1.0
4.0
Q1/17 Q3/17 Q1/18 Q3/18 Q1/19 Q3/19 Q1/20 Q3/20
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
Growth Rate, % Change from Previous Quarter
US Gross Domestic Product
211 282
3,307
6,867 6,615
5,2374,442
3,8673,176
2,687 2,438
March 7 March 14 March 21 March 28 April 4 April 11 April 18 April 25 May 2 May 9 May 16Source: U.S. Employment and Training Administration
000s
Initial Claims for Unemployment
Houston Job Losses (March + April)
330,000
Initial Claims for Unemployment Benefits (Mar 15 – May 9)
425,000
Unemployment Rate
14.2%
Three Houston Indicators
Houston Job Losses (March + April)
330,000
Initial Claims for Unemployment Benefits (Mar 15 – May 9)
425,000
Unemployment Rate
14.2%
Three Houston Indicators
Houston Job Losses (March + April)
330,000
Initial Claims for Unemployment Benefits (Mar 15 – May 9)
425,000
Unemployment Rate
14.2%
Three Houston Indicators
Houston PMI
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
'08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21Source: Institute for Supply Management-Houston
Above 50 = Expansion, Below 50 = Contraction
$99,365,224$107,199,928
$51,381,735
$12,459
Jan '20 Feb '20 Mar '20 Apr '20Source: City of Houston
Houston Mixed Beverage Receipts
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
7-Jan 14-Jan 21-Jan 28-Jan 4-Feb 11-Feb 18-Feb 25-Feb 3-Mar 10-Mar 17-Mar 24-Mar 31-Mar 7-Apr 14-Apr 21-Apr 28-Apr 5-May 12-May
Source: City of Houston
City of Houston Downtown Parking Transactions(7 day average)
Houston Re-Opening
Houston Re-Opening
-120
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
2018
-Feb
25-F
eb
3-M
ar
10-M
ar
17-M
ar
24-M
ar
31-M
ar
7-Ap
r
14-A
pr
21-A
pr
28-A
pr
5-M
ay
12-M
ay
% C
hang
e fro
m S
ame
Wee
k La
st Y
ear
Source: Open Table
Houston-Area Restaurant Reservations
Impact of COVID-19 on Houston’s Global Business
Inventory of Global Assets
Metro Houston Exports – Billions
$65.8
$120.7
'09 '18Source: U.S. International Trade Administration
Top Exporting Metros
47.3
59.7
64.8
97.7
120.7
Chicago
Seattle
Los Angeles
New York
Houston
$ Billions
Source: U.S. International Trade Administration
Top Customs Districts
Rank District Million Metric Tons
1 Houston/Galveston 320.9
2 New Orleans 238.8
3 Los Angeles 115.0
4 Port Arthur 92.5
5 New York 81.4Source: WISERTrade
Trading Partners
183 Trading Partners
45 countries with $1 billion+ bilateral trade
Top Trading Partners – ’19
Mexico $21.7B Brazil $15.4B China $14.7B S. Korea $13.5B Netherlands $11.7B
India $10.1B Germany $10.0B
United Kingdom $9.3B
Japan $9.2B Colombia $7.0B
Top Houston Commodities – ’19
• 11,000+ exporters• 1,700+ foreign-owned firms• 91 countries with official government offices• 56 international chambers, trade associations,
commercial offices• 17 foreign banks
International Snapshot
Impact on Houston’s Global Business
Slower growth over the next 2-3 yearsWeaker demand for Houston exportsLimited access to overseas marketsFewer foreign visitors to HoustonReduction in foreign direct investment (FDI)
Impact on Houston’s Global Business
Slower growth over the next 2-3 yearsWeaker demand for Houston exportsLimited access to overseas marketsFewer foreign visitors to HoustonReduction in foreign direct investment (FDI)
Impact on Houston’s Global Business
Slower growth over the next 2-3 yearsWeaker demand for Houston exportsLimited access to overseas marketsFewer foreign visitors to HoustonReduction in foreign direct investment (FDI)
Impact on Houston’s Global Business
Slower growth over the next 2-3 yearsWeaker demand for Houston exportsLimited access to overseas marketsFewer foreign visitors to HoustonReduction in foreign direct investment (FDI)
Impact on Houston’s Global Business
Slower growth over the next 2-3 yearsWeaker demand for Houston exportsLimited access to overseas marketsFewer foreign visitors to HoustonReduction in foreign direct investment (FDI)
Impact on Houston’s Global Business
Export Demand
Published October 1, 2019
73 126 234 306 407 467 598 570
814
1,463
0.6 0.81.3
1.72.2 2.5
3.7 3.6
4.7
7.5
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
'09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18
% o
f Wor
ld’s
Impo
rts
Rest
rictio
ns in
For
ce
Source: World Trade Organization
Import Restrictions In Force % of World's Imports
Import Restrictions In Force
May 10, 2019
April 3, 2019
$7.6 B
$4.4 B
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19
$ Bi
llion
s
Source: WISERTrade
Houston Exports to China
$12.7 B
$14.6 B
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19
$ Bi
llion
s
Source: WISERTrade
Houston Exports to Mexico
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
'71 '73 '75 '77 '79 '81 '83 '85 '87 '89 '91 '93 '95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17 '19
% C
hang
e
Source: Partnership calculations based on World Bank data
% Change from Previous Year
GDP Exports
Global Growth, Exports v GDP
International Air Service
• 2 international airports• 23 carriers offering international service• 67 international destinations• 37 countries• 851 international flights per week
Ranking Airport International Flights/Week
1 New York – JFK 1,526 2 Miami – MIA 1,424 3 Los Angeles – LAX 1,111 4 Newark – EWR 880 5 Houston – IAH 851 6 Chicago – ORD 768 7 Atlanta – ATL 697 8 San Francisco – SFO 684 9 Fort Lauderdale – FLL 648
10 Dallas/Fort Worth - DFW 628
U.S. International Airports
U.S. International Airports
“. . . 3 to 5 years for airline industry to return from ‘apocalyptic’ state . . .”
David L. CalhounCEO of Boeing
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
1-Mar 8-Mar 15-Mar22-Mar29-Mar 5-Apr 12-Apr 19-Apr 26-Apr 3-May 10-May17-May24-May
Mill
ions
Source: Transportation Safety Administration
2020 Same Weekday 1 Year Ago
TSA Checkpoint Travel Data, Entire US
International Air Transportation Association (IATA) Survey
• 86% respondents concerned about quarantine while traveling
• 69% would reconsider travel if it might result in a 14-day quarantine
Possible solutions
IATA Forecast
• Domestic traffic returns to pre-COVID levels in 2022
• International traffic returns in 2024
• Reduces Houston’s global reach• More difficult to recruit overseas clients• Loss of touch with existing clients• More difficult to attract foreign talent• Slows tech transfers• Reduces tourism• Weakens global supply chains• Affects investment decisions (FDI)
Why is this a problem?
• Reduces Houston’s global reach• More difficult to recruit overseas clients• Loss of touch with existing clients• More difficult to attract foreign talent• Slows tech transfers• Reduces tourism• Weakens global supply chains• Affects investment decisions (FDI)
Why is this a problem?
• Reduces Houston’s global reach• More difficult to recruit overseas clients• Loss of touch with existing clients• More difficult to attract foreign talent• Slows tech transfers• Reduces tourism• Weakens global supply chains• Affects investment decisions (FDI)
Why is this a problem?
• Reduces Houston’s global reach• More difficult to recruit overseas clients• Loss of touch with existing clients• More difficult to attract foreign talent• Slows tech transfers• Reduces tourism• Weakens global supply chains• Affects investment decisions (FDI)
Why is this a problem?
• Reduces Houston’s global reach• More difficult to recruit overseas clients• Loss of touch with existing clients• More difficult to attract foreign talent• Slows tech transfers• Reduces tourism• Weakens global supply chains• Affects investment decisions (FDI)
Why is this a problem?
• Reduces Houston’s global reach• More difficult to recruit overseas clients• Loss of touch with existing clients• More difficult to attract foreign talent• Slows tech transfers• Reduces tourism• Weakens global supply chains• Affects investment decisions (FDI)
Why is this a problem?
• Reduces Houston’s global reach• More difficult to recruit overseas clients• Loss of touch with existing clients• More difficult to attract foreign talent• Slows tech transfers• Reduces tourism• Weakens global supply chains• Affects investment decisions (FDI)
Why is this a problem?
• Reduces Houston’s global reach• More difficult to recruit overseas clients• Loss of touch with existing clients• More difficult to attract foreign talent• Slows tech transfers• Reduces tourism• Weakens global supply chains• Affects investment decisions (FDI)
Why is this a problem?
Foreign Direct Investment
Foreign Direct Investment
Since ’09• 669 announcements• 439 foreign-owned firms• 37 countries• 63 industries• $35.6 billion invested
Foreign Direct Investment
• Infuses new capital into the region• Expands the manufacturing base• Helps underpin jobs• Facilitates the exchange of ideas and best practices• Increases trade• Stimulates growth• Adds to the tax base
Foreign Direct Investment
• Infuses new capital into the region• Expands the manufacturing base• Helps underpin jobs• Facilitates the exchange of ideas and best practices• Increases trade• Stimulates growth• Adds to the tax base
Foreign Direct Investment
• Infuses new capital into the region• Expands the manufacturing base• Helps underpin jobs• Facilitates the exchange of ideas and best practices• Increases trade• Stimulates growth• Adds to the tax base
Foreign Direct Investment
• Infuses new capital into the region• Expands the manufacturing base• Helps underpin jobs• Facilitates the exchange of ideas and best practices• Increases trade• Stimulates growth• Adds to the tax base
Foreign Direct Investment
• Infuses new capital into the region• Expands the manufacturing base• Helps underpin jobs• Facilitates the exchange of ideas and best practices• Increases trade• Stimulates growth• Adds to the tax base
Foreign Direct Investment
• Infuses new capital into the region• Expands the manufacturing base• Helps underpin jobs• Facilitates the exchange of ideas and best practices• Increases trade• Stimulates growth• Adds to the tax base
Foreign Direct Investment
• Infuses new capital into the region• Expands the manufacturing base• Helps underpin jobs• Facilitates the exchange of ideas and best practices• Increases trade• Stimulates growth• Adds to the tax base
Foreign Direct Investment
Published January 20, 2020
Foreign Direct Investment
Foreign Direct Investment in U.S.
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
'87
'88
'89
'90
'91
'92
'93
'94
'95
'96
'97
'98
'99
'00
'01
'02
'03
'04
'05
'06
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
'12
'13
'14
'15
'16
'17
'18
'19
'20
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
% Change from Year Ago
Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions
What about crude?
Crude Futures
U.S. Rig Count
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
'14 '15 '16 17 '18 '19 '20 '21
Num
ber o
f Dril
ling
Rigs
Source: Baker Hughes
404 Rigs318 Rigs
Energy Layoffs
Houston’s Energy Sector Layoffs
Since February ’20 13,200 Jobs ↓
Since April ’19 21,200 Jobs ↓
Includes exploration and production, oil field services, fabricated metal products and oil field equipment manufacturing
Houston and Energy in a Post-COVID WorldTuesday, June 23 | 12:00 p.m.
www.Houston.org/events
Slower growth over the next 2-3 years• Weaker demand for Houston exports• Limited access to overseas markets• Fewer foreign visitors to Houston• Reduction in foreign direct investment (FDI)
Impact on Our Global Business
Larry KudlowDirector, United States National Economic Council
Jerome H. PowellChairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve
“We will not go back to where we were when the pandemic started. That is pretty certain. But that is the only thing that is certain.”
George Soros