9 priority FfD commitments

@mcarthur

SITE - Stockholm School of EconomicsFfD Conference11 May 2015

Megatrends

Source: World Bank 2014

Global extreme poverty rate (%)

Child survival (U5MR)

Source: JW McArthur. 2014. “Seven Million Lives Saved …”

7.5 million additional lives saved

Source: JW McArthur. 2014. “Seven Million Lives Saved…”

Global shifts

Rates of progress

Source: JW McArthur. 2014. “Seven Million Lives Saved…”

Sources of global growth

Source: CIPS Development Study Group. 2015. Based on WDI 2015.

30 - 30 - 130

30 - 30 - 130

3 Big Breakthroughs

9 Recommendations

#1

Basic needs budget

$300 per capita (PPP)or

10% of GNI (if >$3000)

AIC vs GNI per capita

Source: Kharas and McArthur. 2015. “Nine Priority Commitments …”

Lowest AIC per capita

Source: Kharas and McArthur. 2015. “Nine Priority Commitments …”

#2

Domestic Resource Mobilization

½ the gap to 20% of GDP by 2025

Average non-grant revenue in 2010 (%GDP)

Note: Unweighted averages among available observations. Source: JW McArthur calculations based on WDI 2015

#3

Middle-income financing “trough”

MDB system review by 2016

Source: Kharas and McArthur. 2015. “Nine Priority Commitments …”

#4

~ $1 Trillion gap for

infrastructure & decarbonization

no silver bullet

peak urban population growth

#5

Timetable for ODA to LDCs

> 0.15-20% of GNI by 2020

DAC DonorODA to LDCs

(% of GNI)Absolute Value

(2005 $Mns)

1 Luxembourg 0.38% 137

2 Denmark 0.33% 955

3 Sweden 0.31% 1,449

4 Norway 0.30% 1,264

5 Ireland 0.27% 425

6 Belgium 0.22% 988

7 United Kingdom 0.20% 4,362

8 Netherlands 0.20% 1,401

9 Finland 0.19% 417

Already there (2010 - 2012 average)

Source: Kharas and McArthur. 2015. “Nine Priority Commitments …” based on OECD-DAC online statistics 2014.

DAC DonorODA to LDCs

(% of GNI)Absolute Value

(2005 $Mns)10 Portugal 0.13% 255

11 France 0.12% 2,960

12 Canada 0.12% 1,767

13 Iceland 0.11% 11

14 Germany 0.11% 3,389

15 Switzerland 0.11% 607

16 Australia 0.10% 1,222

17 New Zealand 0.09% 115

18 Austria 0.08% 299

19 Spain 0.08% 1,045

20 United States 0.07% 9,947

21 Japan 0.07% 3,735

22 Italy 0.06% 1,136

23 Korea 0.04% 436

24 Czech Republic 0.04% 71

25 Greece 0.04% 91

26 Slovenia 0.03% 14

27 Slovak Republic 0.03% 21

28 Poland 0.03% 109

Not yet there (2010 - 2012 average)

Source: Kharas and McArthur. 2015. “Nine Priority Commitments …” based on OECD-DAC online statistics 2014.

#6

Global Skills Gap

put the “G” in GPE

Source: UNESCO. 2015. EFA Global Monitoring Report Policy Paper 18

Source: UNESCO. 2015. EFA Global Monitoring Report Policy Paper 18

#7

Climate Finance Accounting

ODA ≠ mitigation

“climate”

All “ODA”

TODAY "AID" ADAPTATION MITIGATION

• Much “climate” ODA is for mitigation in UMICs

• Pulls aid away from LDCs

Source: Kharas and McArthur. (2015 rev) “Nine Priority Commitments …”

“climate”

True “ODA”

“climate”

All “ODA”

TODAY

RECOMMEND "AID" ADAPTATION MITIGATION

"AID" ADAPTATION MITIGATION

Source: Kharas and McArthur (2015 rev) “Nine Priority Commitments …”

#8

Business performance metrics

“A timetable to fair play”

GASDAP* by 2020

Source: Sustainability Accounting Standards Board. 2015. 101 Briefing Presentation

#9

LDC/LIC Private Investment

LDC closed-end investment fund

FDI vs ODA in sub-Saharan Africa

IV.

Post-script:

Complexities of inequality

Note: ODA is net disbursements net of debt relief; Source: OECD-DAC database 2013

Note: Aid is ODA net disbursements net of debt relief; Sources: J McArthur calculations based on OECD-DAC database 2013; BEA 2013; NYS Controller 2013

thank you

@mcarthur