72 11 nav part 4 share prices after
TRANSCRIPT
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Input and Assumptions - XTO Energy Inc. and Exxon Mobil Corporation
Seller Name: XTO Energy Inc. Buyer Name: Exxon Mobil Corporation
Seller Ticker: XTO Buyer Ticker: XOM
Last Historical Year: 12/31/2009 Merger Close Date: 12/31/2009
Valuation Date: 12/11/2009 LBO Close Date: 12/31/2009
Month Multiplier: 29 Blue indicates hard-coded numbers and inputs.
Bbl to Mcf Conversion Factor: 6 Black indicates formulas and text.
Conversion Units: 1000 Green indicates links from other worksheets.
Circularity: Yes Circularity Breaker: No
Seller Share, EV, and Cash Information: Gas O
$ per Mcf $
Common Shares Outstanding: 583.3 Resource Price Case: 5 NAV 7.00$ $
Current Share Price ($ as Stated); 41.49$ 1 Base 7.00$ $
Seller Minimum Cash ($MM): 2$ 2 Downside 4.00
3 Upside 10.00
4 DCF 7.00
5 NAV 7.00
Exercise
Type: Number: Price: Dilution: Enterprise Value Calculation:
Options 18.366 38.39$ 1.372 Equity Value: 24,542
RSU 5.493 5.493 Less: Cash & Cash-Equivalents: (9)
Performance Shares A 0.390 50.00$ - Less: Net Value of Hedges: (1,117)
Performance Shares B 0.228 55.00$ - Plus: Debt: 10,487
Performance Shares C 0.245 77.00$ - Plus: Asset Retirement Obligation: 783
Performance Shares D 0.245 85.00$ - Plus: Preferred Stock: -
Warrants 2.600 20.78$ 1.298 Plus: Noncontrolling Interests: -
Enterprise Value: 34,686$
Diluted Shares: 591.5
Buyer - Current Share Price: 72.83$
Buyer - Minimum Cash Balance: 5,000$
Labels for Valuation - XTO Energy Inc. and Exxon Mobil Corporation
Trailing Twelve Months Label: TTM
Forward Year 1: 12/31/2010
Forward Year 2: 12/31/2011
Forward Year 3: 12/31/2012
Public Company Comparables: Precedent Transactions:
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Company Name 2 Acquirer Name 3
Share Price 45 Target Name 2
Equity Value 69 Announcement Date 46
Enterprise Value 70 Offer Price 48
TTM EBITDA 12 FX Exchange Rate 47
Forward Year 1 EBITDA 82 Equity Value 72
Forward Year 2 EBITDA 85 Enterprise Value 73
TTM EBITDAX 14 TTM EBITDA 15
Forward Year 1 EBITDAX 83 TTM EBITDAX 17
Forward Year 2 EBITDAX 86 Production Areas 21
Production Areas 20 Proved Reserves 20
Proved Reserves 19 Daily Production 23
Daily Production 22 Proved Developed / Total Proved: 89
Proved Developed / Total Proved: 105 Oil Mix %: 90
Oil Mix %: 106 R / P Ratio: 91
R / P Ratio: 107 TTM EBITDA Multiple 84
TTM Proved Reserves Multiple 93 TTM EBITDAX Multiple 85
TTM Daily Production Multiple 94 TTM Proved Reserves Multiple 86
TTM EBITDA Multiple 91 TTM Daily Production Multiple 87
Forward Year 1 EBITDA Multiple 96
Forward Year 2 EBITDA Multiple 99
TTM EBITDAX Multiple 92
Forward Year 1 EBITDAX Multiple 97
Forward Year 2 EBITDAX Multiple 100
Levered Beta 71
Debt 30
Tax Rate 16
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Discounted Cash Flow Analysis - XTO Energy Inc.
($ in Millions Except Per Share Data and Daily Production Figures)
XTO Energy Inc. - Unlevered Free Cash Flow Projections
12/31/2010 12/31/2011 12/31/2012 12/31/2013
Daily Production (MMcfe): 3,150.0 3,465.0 3,799.5 4,084.4
Revenue: 8,935$ 9,818$ 10,762$ 11,529$
EBITDAX: 6,818 7,416 8,040 8,524
Operating Income (EBIT): 3,097 3,323 3,541 3,373
Less: Taxes (1,131) (1,213) (1,293) (1,231)
Plus: DD&A 3,449 3,794 4,172 4,771
Plus: Asset Retirement Accretion 57 63 70 89
Plus: Stock-Based Compensation 129 142 156 167
Plus: Dry Hole Expense 26 29 32 39
Plus: Deferred Income Tax 765 821 875 834
Plus: Non-Cash Derivative Losses 5 5 5 5
Plus: Other Non-Cash Items - - - -
Working Capital (Increase) / Decrease: 682 153 174 291
Less: Capital Expenditures: (5,165) (5,818) (6,397) (7,454)
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 1,917$ 1,300$ 1,335$ 883$
Present Value of Free Cash Flow 1,828$ 1,127$ 1,052$ 633$
Normal Discount Period: 1.000 2.000 3.000 4.000
Mid-Year Discount: 0.500 1.500 2.500 3.500
Free Cash Flow Growth Rate: (32.2%) 2.6% (33.8%)
XTO Energy Inc. - Net Present Value Sensitivity - Natural Gas Prices
Discount Rate
46.51$ 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 10.0% 11.0% 12.0%
9.00$ 54.86$ 51.91$ 49.15$ 46.51$ 44.00$ 41.62$
8.00 54.86 51.91 49.15 46.51 44.00 41.627.00 54.86 51.91 49.15 46.51 44.00 41.62
6.00 54.86 51.91 49.15 46.51 44.00 41.62
5.00 54.86 51.91 49.15 46.51 44.00 41.62
4.00 54.86 51.91 49.15 46.51 44.00 41.62
XTO Energy Inc. - Net Present Value Sensitivity - Terminal EBITDAX Multiples
Discount Rate
46.51$ 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 10.0% 11.0% 12.0%
Natura
lGas
Prices
($PerM
cf
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7.0 x 54.86$ 51.91$ 49.15$ 46.51$ 44.00$ 41.62$
6.0 x 54.86 51.91 49.15 46.51 44.00 41.62
5.0 x 54.86 51.91 49.15 46.51 44.00 41.62
4.0 x 54.86 51.91 49.15 46.51 44.00 41.62
3.0 x 54.86 51.91 49.15 46.51 44.00 41.62
2.0 x 54.86 51.91 49.15 46.51 44.00 41.62
XTO Energy Inc. - Net Present Value Sensitivity - Terminal Daily Production Multiples
Discount Rate
46.51$ 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 10.0% 11.0% 12.0%
14.00$ 65.10$ 61.68$ 58.45$ 55.39$ 52.51$ 49.79$
13.00 59.97 56.79 53.80 50.95 48.27 45.71
12.00 54.86 51.91 49.15 46.51 44.00 41.62
11.00 49.76 47.05 44.47 42.04 39.73 37.51
10.00 44.63 42.15 39.79 37.54 35.36 33.30
9.00 39.49 37.21 35.01 32.93 30.96 29.08
Termina
l
EBITDAX
ultip
les
Termina
lDaily
Pro
duction
ultip
les
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XTO Energy Inc. - DCF Assumptions & Share Price Calculations
12/31/2014
4,390.7 Gas Oil / NGL Hedged
$ per Mcf $ per Bbl Price %
12,386$ DCF-Specific Prices: 7.00$ 75.00$ 110.0%
9,141
3,604 Price Cased Used in DCF: NAV
(1,316) Use Multiples Method? Yes
Use WACC for Discount Rate? No
5,128 Multiple Selection: 2
96 (1 = EBITDAX, 2 = Daily Production)
179
42 Standard O&G Discount: 10.0%
891 Discount Rate: 10.0%
5
- Terminal EBITDAX Multiple: 5.0 x
Terminal Daily Production Multiple: 12.00$
144 Baseline Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0%
(8,173) Terminal Value: 52,689
600$ Present Value of Terminal Value: 32,716
391$ Sum of PV of Free Cash Flows: 5,030Enterprise Value: 37,745$
5.000 Balance Sheet Adjustments: (10,144)
4.500 Implied Equity Value: 27,601$
(32.1%) Diluted Shares Outstanding: 593.5
Implied Share Price: 46.51$
Exercise
Type: Number: Price: Dilution:
13.0% Options 18.366 38.39$ 3.206
39.36$ RSU 5.493 5.493
39.36 Performance Shares A 0.390 50.00 -39.36 Performance Shares B 0.228 55.00 -
39.36 Performance Shares C 0.245 77.00 -
39.36 Performance Shares D 0.245 85.00 -
39.36 Warrants 2.600 20.78 1.438
13.0%
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39.36$
39.36
39.36
39.36
39.36
39.36
13.0%
47.18$
43.27
39.36
35.36
31.33
27.30
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WACC Analysis - XTO Energy Inc.
($ in Millions Except Per Share Data)
Discount Rate Calculation - Assumptions
Risk-Free Rate: 4.39%
Equity Risk Premium: 7.00%Interest Rate on Debt: 5.39%
Comparable Companies - Unlevered Beta Calculation
Levered Equity Unlevered
Name Beta Debt Value Tax Rate Beta
Chesapeake Energy Corporation 1.15 12,295$ 15,489$ 38% 0.77
Anadarko Petroleum 1.41 12,748 28,937 40% 1.12
Occidental Petroleum Corporation 0.98 2,796 61,989 40% 0.95
Apache Corporation 1.19 5,068 32,252 40% 1.09
Devon Energy Corporation 1.05 7,279 28,999 35% 0.90
EOG Resources, Inc. 0.93 2,797 22,289 37% 0.86
Median 0.93
XTO Energy Inc. 1.10
XTO Energy Inc. - Levered Beta & WACC Calculation
Unlevered Equity Levered
Beta Debt Value Tax Rate Beta
XTO Energy Inc. 0.93 10,487$ 24,542$ 36% 1.18
Cost of Equity Based on Comparables: 12.66%
Cost of Equity Based on Historical Beta: 12.09%
WACC 9.90%
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NAV Analysis - XTO Energy Inc.
($ in Millions Except Per Share, Acreage, Production Unit, and Other Per-Unit Data)
XTO Energy Inc. - Net Asset Valuation (NAV)
Proved Reserves as of 12/31/2009: Long-Term PNatural Gas (Bcf): 12,502 Natural Ga
Natural Gas Liquids (MBbls): 93 Natural Ga
Oil (MBbls): 294 Oil:
Natural Gas Equivalents (Bcfe): 14,827
Future Estimated Development Costs: 8,484$ Discount R
Development Years 5
Natural Gas Na
Beginning Annual Avg. Beginning
Reserves Production Price Reserves
Year # (Bcf) (Bcf) $ / Mcf (MBbls)
2010 1 12,502 941 6.84$ 93
2011 2 11,561 1,035 6.84 85
2012 3 10,527 1,141 6.84 76
2013 4 9,385 1,223 6.84 66
2014 5 8,162 1,315 6.84 55
2015 6 6,847 1,249 6.84 44
2016 7 5,598 1,187 6.84 33
2017 8 4,411 1,128 6.84 22
2018 9 3,283 1,071 6.84 122019 10 2,212 1,018 6.84 3
2020 11 1,194 967 6.84 -
2021 12 228 228 6.84 -
2022 13 - - 6.84 -
2023 14 - - 6.84 -
2024 15 - - 6.84 -
2025 16 - - 6.84 -
2026 17 - - 6.84 -
2027 18 - - 6.84 -
2028 19 - - 6.84 -
2029 20 - - 6.84 -2030 21 - - 6.84 -
Present Value of Cash Flows from Proved Reserves: 45,520$
Undeveloped Acres (Property Values in $ Millions USD): Other Busin
Region: Acres: $ / Acre: Value:
US - Texas: 281,000 1,500$ 422$ 12/31/200
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US - Oklahoma: 176,000 500 88 EV/EBITDA
US - New Mexico: 21,000 300 6 Estimated E
US - Arkansas: 216,000 700 151
US - Montana: 92,000 500 46
US - Utah: 84,000 400 34
US - Louisiana: 39,000 700 27
US - North Dakota: 191,000 500 96US - Kansas: - 500 -
US - West Virginia: 58,000 600 35
US - Pennsylvania: 119,000 1,200 143
US - Wyoming: 13,000 400 5
US - Colorado: 2,000 500 1
US - Other: 76,000 300 23
US - Offshore: 45,000 400 18
North Sea - Offshore: 133,000 600 80
Total: 1,546,000 1,174$
Enterprise Value: 46,694$
Balance Sheet Adjustments: (10,144)
Implied Equity Value: 36,550$
Diluted Shares Outstanding: 598.0
Implied Share Price: 61.12$
Exercise
Type: Number: Price: Dilution:
Options 18.366 38.39$ 6.830
RSU 5.493 5.493
Performance Shares A 0.390 50.00 0.390Performance Shares B 0.228 55.00 0.228
Performance Shares C 0.245 77.00 -
Performance Shares D 0.245 85.00 -
Warrants 2.600 20.78 1.716
XTO Energy Inc. - Net Present Value Sensitivity - Natural Gas Prices
Discount Rate
61.12$ 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 10.0% 11.0% 12.0%
9.00$ 97.02$ 91.54$ 86.46$ 81.77$ 77.37$ 73.30$
8.00 85.06 80.20 75.68 71.46 67.53 63.87
7.00 73.15 68.84 64.84 61.12 57.66 54.456.00 61.18 57.45 54.01 50.80 47.84 45.04
5.00 49.26 46.11 43.19 40.48 37.94 35.52
4.00 37.24 34.60 32.15 29.87 27.75 25.78
XTO Energy Inc. - Net Present Value Sensitivity - Natural Gas Prices - From DCF Analysis Based on Daily P
Discount Rate
-$ 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 10.0% 11.0% 12.0%
9.00$ 67.71$ 64.46$ 61.38$ 58.45$ 55.67$ 53.06$
Natura
lGas
Prices
($Pe
rMc
f
cf
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8.00 61.28 58.18 55.24 52.48 49.86 47.35
7.00 54.86 51.91 49.15 46.51 44.00 41.62
6.00 48.45 45.66 43.01 40.51 38.13 35.81
5.00 42.01 39.37 36.82 34.38 32.08 29.90
4.00 35.48 32.91 30.49 28.20 26.03 23.98
Natura
lGas
Prices
($PerM
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roduction Decline: Resource Prices for NAV: Gas Oil / NGL Hedged : (5.0%) $ per Mcf $ per Bbl Price %
Liquids: (5.0%) 7.00$ 75.00$ 110.0%
(5.0%)
Price Cased Used in NAV: NAV
te: 10.0%
ural Gas Liquids Oil Revenue ($ in Millions)
Annual Avg. Beginning Annual Avg.
Production Price Reserves Production Price Natural Total
(MBbls) $ / Bbl (MBbls) (MBbls) $ / Bbl Gas Oil & NGL Revenue
8 41.94$ 294 27 76.79$ 6,438$ 2,390$ 8,828$
9 41.94 268 29 76.79 7,081 2,629 9,711
10 41.94 239 32 76.79 7,811 2,844 10,655
11 41.94 207 34 76.79 8,374 3,049 11,422
12 41.94 173 36 76.79 9,002 3,277 12,279
11 41.94 137 35 76.79 8,552 3,113 11,665
10 41.94 102 33 76.79 8,124 2,958 11,082
10 41.94 69 31 76.79 7,718 2,810 10,528
9 41.94 38 30 76.79 7,332 2,669 10,0013 41.94 9 9 76.79 6,965 776 7,742
- 41.94 - - 76.79 6,617 - 6,617
- 41.94 - - 76.79 1,558 - 1,558
- 41.94 - - 76.79 - - -
- 41.94 - - 76.79 - - -
- 41.94 - - 76.79 - - -
- 41.94 - - 76.79 - - -
- 41.94 - - 76.79 - - -
- 41.94 - - 76.79 - - -
- 41.94 - - 76.79 - - -
- 41.94 - - 76.79 - - -- 41.94 - - 76.79 - - -
ess Segments:
Chemicals Midstream Downstream
EBITDA: N/A 12/31/2009 EBITDA: N/A 12/31/2009 EBITDA: N/A
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Multiple: N/A EV/EBITDA Multiple: N/A EV/EBITDA Multiple: N/A
: N/A Estimated EV: N/A Estimated EV: N/A
13.0% 14.0%
69.47$ 65.90$
60.45 57.26
51.44 48.6642.44 40.01
33.25 31.14
23.94 22.22
oduction
13.0%
50.55$
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44.97
39.36
33.61
27.83
22.04
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Production & Development Expenses: Cash Flows ($ in Millions)
Total Total
Annual Production Production Development Pre-Tax Cash After-Tax
Bcfe Per Mcfe Expenses Expenses Cash Flows Tax Rate Cash Flows
1,150 0.95$ 1,092$ 1,697$ 6,039$ 11.8% 5,327$
1,265 0.95 1,201 1,697 6,812 11.8% 6,009
1,391 1.00 1,391 1,697 7,567 11.8% 6,675
1,491 1.00 1,491 1,697 8,235 11.8% 7,264
1,603 1.00 1,603 1,697 8,980 11.8% 7,921
1,522 1.00 1,522 - 10,143 11.8% 8,947
1,446 1.00 1,446 - 9,636 11.8% 8,499
1,374 1.00 1,374 - 9,154 11.8% 8,075
1,305 1.00 1,305 - 8,696 11.8% 7,6711,086 1.00 1,086 - 6,655 11.8% 5,871
967 1.00 967 - 5,650 11.8% 4,984
228 1.00 228 - 1,331 11.8% 1,174
- 1.00 - - - 11.8% -
- 1.00 - - - 11.8% -
- 1.00 - - - 11.8% -
- 1.00 - - - 11.8% -
- 1.00 - - - 11.8% -
- 1.00 - - - 11.8% -
- 1.00 - - - 11.8% -
- 1.00 - - - 11.8% -- 1.00 - - - 11.8% -
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XTO Energy Inc. - Summary of Financial Statements
($ in Millions Except Per Share Data)
Historical
December 31, 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Revenue:
Gas & Natural Gas Liquids: 2,787$ 3,490$ 4,214$ 5,728$ 6,322$Oil & Condensate: 670 1,002 1,204 1,796 2,605
Gas Gath., Proc. & Marketing: 56 86 100 168 125
Other: 6 (2) (5) 3 12
Total Revenue: 3,519 4,576 5,513 7,695 9,064
Net Income: 1,152$ 1,860$ 1,691$ 1,912$ 2,019$
Earnings Per Basic Share: 2.57$ 4.07$ 3.57$ 3.58$ 3.48$
Earnings Per Diluted Share: 2.52 4.02 3.52 3.54 3.46
Dividends Per Common Share: 0.18 0.25 0.41 0.48 0.50
Cash Flow from Operations: 2,094 2,859 3,639 5,235 5,954
Cash Flow from Investing: (2,908) (3,036) (7,345) (13,006) (4,057)
Cash Flow from Financing: 806 180 3,701 7,796 (1,913)
Net PP&E: 8,508 10,824 17,200 31,281 31,934
Total Assets: 9,857 12,885 18,922 38,254 36,255
Total Debt: 3,109 3,451 6,320 11,959 10,487
Shareholders' Equity: 4,209 5,865 7,941 17,347 17,326
EBITDA: 2,615 3,587 4,209 5,790 7,073EBITDAX: 2,639 3,609 4,261 5,878 7,150
XTO Energy Inc. - Production and Operational Summary
Historical
December 31, 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Average Daily Production:
Gas (MMcf): 1,033.1 1,186.3 1,457.8 1,905.4 2,342.5
Natural Gas Liquids (MBbls): 10.4 11.9 13.5 15.6 20.6
Oil (MBbls): 39.1 45.0 47.0 56.0 66.3Total Daily MMcfe: 1,330.1 1,527.7 1,821.4 2,335.3 2,863.6
Total Annual Production (Bcfe): 485 558 665 855 1,045
Average Realized Sale Prices After Hedging:
Gas ($ Per Mcf): 7.38$ 6.26$ 6.26$ 8.04$ 3.67$
Natural Gas Liquids ($ Per Bbl): 34.10 37.03 45.37 52.05 30.03
Oil ($ Per Bbl): 52.58 60.79 68.68 93.17 57.10
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Annual Production Expenses (per Mcfe):
Production: 0.84$ 0.88$ 0.93$ 1.10$ 0.96$
Taxes, Transportation & Other: 0.63$ 0.67$ 0.67$ 0.82$ 0.65$
Proved Reserves:
Gas (Bcf): 6,086 6,944 9,441 11,803 12,502Natural Gas Liquids (MMBbls): 47 53 67 76 93
Oil (MBBls): 209 214 241 268 294
Total Proved Reserves (Bcfe): 7,622 8,549 11,289 13,863 14,827
Total Proved Reserves (MMBOE): 1,270 1,425 1,882 2,310 2,471
Reserve Life Ratio (Years): 15.7 15.3 17.0 16.2 14.2
Proved Reserves % Oil: 16.4% 15.0% 12.8% 11.6% 11.9%
XTO Energy Inc. - Valuation Multiples
Historical
December 31, 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
EV / EBITDA: 4.9 x
EV / EBITDAX: 4.9 x
EV / Proved Reserves (Bcfe): 2.34$
EV / Daily Production (MMcfed): 12.11$
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Projected
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
6,784$ 7,462$ 8,231$ 8,824$ 9,486$2,044 2,248 2,424 2,598 2,793
107 107 107 107 107
- - - - -
8,935 9,818 10,762 11,529 12,386
1,612$ 1,764$ 1,925$ 1,865$ 2,051$
2.70$ 2.87$ 3.05$ 2.88$ 3.09$
2.68 2.86 3.03 2.86 3.07
0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50
6,589 6,637 7,282 7,953 8,444
(5,165) (5,818) (6,397) (7,454) (8,173)
(1,076) 388 (521) (929) (137)
33,623 35,618 37,811 40,455 43,458
38,655 41,984 44,677 47,001 50,261
9,015 9,015 8,115 6,815 6,315
19,464 21,758 24,217 26,620 29,214
6,738 7,328 7,943 8,405 9,0136,818 7,416 8,040 8,524 9,141
Projected
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
2,576.7 2,834.4 3,117.9 3,351.7 3,603.1
22.6 24.9 27.4 29.4 31.6
72.9 80.2 86.2 92.7 99.73,150.0 3,465.0 3,799.5 4,084.4 4,390.7
1,150 1,265 1,391 1,491 1,603
6.22$ 6.22$ 6.22$ 6.22$ 6.22$
41.94 41.94 41.94 41.94 41.94
69.81 69.81 69.81 69.81 69.81
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0.95$ 0.95$ 1.00$ 1.00$ 1.00$
0.65$ 0.70$ 0.70$ 0.75$ 0.75$
Projected
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
5.1 x 4.7 x 4.4 x 4.1 x 3.8 x
5.1 x 4.7 x 4.3 x 4.1 x 3.8 x
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XTO Energy Inc. - Production Profile
Historical Pr
December 31, 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Days in Year: 365 365 365 366 365 365 365
Average Daily Production:
Gas (MMcf): 1,033.1 1,186.3 1,457.8 1,905.4 2,342.5 2,576.7 2,834.4
Natural Gas Liquids (MBbls): 10.4 11.9 13.5 15.6 20.6 22.6 24.9
Oil (MBbls): 39.1 45.0 47.0 56.0 66.3 72.9 80.2
Total Daily MMcfe: 1,330.1 1,527.7 1,821.4 2,335.3 2,863.6 3,150.0 3,465.0
Total Annual Production:
Gas (Bcf): 377.1 433.0 532.1 697.4 855.0 940.5 1,034.6
Natural Gas Liquids (MMBbls): 3.8 4.3 4.9 5.7 7.5 8.3 9.1
Oil (MMBbls): 14.3 16.4 17.2 20.5 24.2 26.6 29.3
Total Bcfe: 485.5 557.6 664.8 854.7 1,045.2 1,149.7 1,264.7
Average Daily Production Growth / (Decline) Rates:
Gas: 14.8% 22.9% 30.7% 22.9% 10.0% 10.0%
Natural Gas Liquids: 13.5% 14.3% 15.3% 31.6% 10.0% 10.0%
Oil: 15.3% 4.5% 19.1% 18.3% 10.0% 10.0%
XTO Energy Inc. - Resource Price, Hedging and Revenue Profile
($ as Stated Except Revenue in Millions)
Historical Pr
December 31, 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Average NYMEX Prices:
Gas ($ Per Mcf): 8.62$ 7.23$ 6.86$ 9.03$ 3.99$ 7.00$ 7.00$ $
Natural Gas Liquids ($ Per Bbl): 56.57 66.22 72.39 99.75 61.82 75.00 75.00 Oil ($ Per Bbl): 56.57 66.22 72.39 99.75 61.82 75.00 75.00
NYMEX Gas Prices ($ Per Mcf):
Base Case: 7.00$ 7.00$ $
Downside Case: 4.00 4.00
Upside Case: 10.00 10.00
DCF Case: 7.00 7.00
NAV Case: 7.00 7.00
Selected Case: NAV 7.00$ 7.00$ $
NYMEX Natural Gas Liquids Prices ($ Per Bbl):
Base Case: 75.00$ 75.00$ $
Downside Case: 50.00 50.00
Upside Case: 100.00 100.00 DCF Case: 75.00 75.00
NAV Case: 75.00 75.00
Selected Case: NAV 75.00$ 75.00$ $
NYMEX Oil Prices ($ Per Bbl):
Base Case: 75.00$ 75.00$ $
Downside Case: 50.00 50.00
Upside Case: 100.00 100.00
DCF Case: 75.00 75.00
NAV Case: 75.00 75.00
Selected Case: NAV 75.00$ 75.00$ $
Average Realized Sale Prices Before Hedging:
Gas ($ Per Mcf): 7.38$ 6.26$ 6.26$ 8.04$ 3.67$ 6.22$ 6.22$ $ Natural Gas Liquids ($ Per Bbl): 34.10 37.03 45.37 52.05 30.03 41.94 41.94
Oil ($ Per Bbl): 52.58 60.79 68.68 93.17 57.10 69.81 69.81
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XTO Energy Inc. - Income Statement
($ in Millions Except Per Share Data)
Historical
December 31, 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Revenue:
Gas & Natural Gas Liquids: 2,787$ 3,490$ 4,214$ 5,728$ 6,322$Oil & Condensate: 670 1,002 1,204 1,796 2,605
Gas Gath., Proc. & Marketing: 56 86 100 168 125
Other: 6 (2) (5) 3 12
Total Revenue: 3,519 4,576 5,513 7,695 9,064
Expenses:
Production: 406 491 615 942 999
Taxes, Transportation & Other: 306 372 444 703 678
Exploration: 24 22 52 88 77
DD&A: 655 875 1,187 2,025 3,079
Accr. of Asset Retirement Obli.: 12 16 22 31 40
G&A (Exc. Stock-Based Comp.): 121 126 166 212 219
Gas Gathering & Processing: 11 41 81 101 124
Stock-Based Compensation: 34 63 65 170 137
Derivative FV (Gain) / Loss: (13) (102) (11) (85) 24
Total Expenses: 1,556 1,904 2,621 4,187 5,377
Operating Income: 1,963$ 2,672$ 2,892$ 3,508$ 3,687$
Other (Income) / Expense:
Gain on Royalty Trusts: - (469) - - -Net Interest Expense: 153 180 250 482 524
Total Other (Income) / Exp.: 153 (289) 250 482 524
Pre-Tax Income: 1,810$ 2,961$ 2,642$ 3,026$ 3,163$
Income Tax Expense:
Current: 243 572 292 140 333
Deferred: 415 529 659 974 811
Total Income Tax Exp.: 658 1,101 951 1,114 1,144
Net Income: 1,152$ 1,860$ 1,691$ 1,912$ 2,019$Attributable to Participating: N/A N/A (4) (10) (16)
Net Income Used in EPS: N/A N/A 1,687$ 1,902$ 2,003$
Earnings Per Basic Share: 2.57$ 4.07$ 3.57$ 3.58$ 3.48$
Earnings Per Diluted Share: 2.52 4.02 3.52 3.54 3.46
Dividends Per Common Share: 0.18 0.25 0.41 0.48 0.50
Average Basic Shares: 448.1 456.1 471.9 531.6 575.6
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Average Diluted Shares: 457.0 462.2 479.2 537.5 579.4
XTO Energy Inc. - Non-Cash and One-Time Expenses, EBITDA, and EBITDAX
($ in Millions)
Historical
December 31, 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Operating Income: 1,963$ 2,672$ 2,892$ 3,508$ 3,687$
Plus: Non-Cash Deriv. Change: (39) (39) 43 (72) 130
Plus: Impairment Charge: - - - 128 -
Plus: Gain on Prop. Exchange: (10) - - - -
Plus: DD&A: 655 875 1,187 2,025 3,079
Plus: Asset Retirement Accr.: 12 16 22 31 40
Plus: Stock-Based Comp.: 34 63 65 170 137
EBITDA: 2,615$ 3,587$ 4,209$ 5,790$ 7,073$
Plus: Exploration: 24 22 52 88 77
EBITDAX: 2,639$ 3,609$ 4,261$ 5,878$ 7,150$
XTO Energy Inc. - Tax Rate Projections
Historical
December 31, 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Income Tax %:
Current: 13.4% 19.3% 11.1% 4.6% 10.5%
Deferred: 22.9% 17.9% 24.9% 32.2% 25.6%
XTO Energy Inc. - Balance Sheet
($ in Millions)Historical
December 31, 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Assets:
Current Assets:
Cash & Cash-Equivalents: 2$ 5$ -$ 25$ 9$
Accounts Receivable, Net: 644 656 852 1,217 965
Derivative Fair Value: 193 804 199 2,735 1,222
Current Inc. Tax Receivable: 35 66 118 57 170
Deferred Inc. Tax Benefit: - - 20 - -
Other: 69 54 98 224 182
Total Current Assets: 943 1,585 1,287 4,258 2,548
PP&E:
Proved Properties: 9,979 12,369 18,671 30,994 34,180
Unproved Properties: 283 414 1,050 3,907 3,691
Other: 278 799 1,376 2,239 2,810
Total PP&E: 10,540 13,582 21,097 37,140 40,681
Accumulated DD&A: (2,032) (2,758) (3,897) (5,859) (8,747)
Net PP&E: 8,508 10,824 17,200 31,281 31,934
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Derivative Fair Value: 1 56 - 1,023 68
Net Gas Gathering Contracts: 132 121 112 105 97
Goodwill: 213 215 215 1,447 1,475
Other: 60 84 108 140 133
Total Other Assets: 406 476 435 2,715 1,773
Total Assets: 9,857$ 12,885$ 18,922$ 38,254$ 36,255$
Liabilities & Shareholders' Equity:
Current Liabilities:
Accounts Payable: 739$ 912$ 1,264$ 1,912$ 1,482$
Payable to Royalty Trusts: 13 23 30 13 28
Derivative Fair Value: 90 37 239 35 167
Deferred Income Taxes: 38 263 - 940 342
Other: 4 5 4 30 32
Total Current Liabilities: 884 1,240 1,537 2,930 2,051
Total Debt: 3,109 3,451 6,320 11,959 10,487
Derivative Fair Value: - 1 4 - 6
Deferred Income Taxes: 1,390 1,978 2,610 5,200 5,522
Asset Retirement Obligation: 219 303 450 735 783
Other: 46 47 60 83 80
Total Long-Term Liabilities: 4,764 5,780 9,444 17,977 16,878
Stockholders' Equity:
Common Stock & APIC: 1,869 2,062 3,177 8,321 8,477
Treasury Stock: (39) (125) (134) (147) (177)Retained Earnings: 2,311 3,442 4,938 6,588 8,317
Accum. Other Comp. Inc.: 68 486 (40) 2,585 709
Total Stockholders' Equity: 4,209$ 5,865$ 7,941$ 17,347$ 17,326$
Total Liabilities & SE: 9,857$ 12,885$ 18,922$ 38,254$ 36,255$
Balance Check: OK! OK! OK! OK! OK!
XTO Energy Inc. - Cash Flow Statement
($ in Millions)
HistoricalDecember 31, 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Operating Activities:
Net Income: 1,152$ 1,860$ 1,691$ 1,912$ 2,019$
Adjustments to NI:
DD&A: 655 875 1,187 2,025 3,079
Accr. of Asset Retirement Obli.: 12 16 22 31 40
Stock-Based Compensation: 34 63 65 170 137
Dry Hole Expense: - 9 21 22 44
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Deferred Income Tax: 415 529 659 974 811
Gain on Royalty Trusts: - (469) - - -
Gain on Debt Extinguish.: - - - - (17)
Non-Cash Deriv. (Gain) / Loss: (39) (39) 43 (72) 130
Other Non-Cash Items: 23 10 23 2 (24)
Other Changes: - - - - -
Changes in Working Capital: (158) 5 (72) 171 (265)Cash Flow from Operations: 2,094 2,859 3,639 5,235 5,954
Investing Activities:
Proceeds from Sale of PP&E: 17 6 1 24 3
Acquisitions: (1,407) (616) (4,012) (8,456) (264)
Development & Exploration: (1,304) (2,047) (2,668) (3,661) (3,190)
Other Property Additions: (214) (379) (666) (913) (606)
Cash Flow from Investing: (2,908) (3,036) (7,345) (13,006) (4,057)
Financing Activities:
Historical Debt Proceeds: 3,825 5,719 7,293 19,560 7,730
Historical Debt Payments: (2,977) (5,377) (4,433) (14,250) (9,183)
Common Stock Proceeds: - - 1,009 2,612 -
Dividends: (67) (109) (170) (250) (287)
Senior Note and Debt Costs: (5) (9) (18) (32) (2)
Option and Warr. Proceeds: 73 24 33 23 23
Stock Option Exer. Payments: (20) (46) (57) (70) (23)
Stock Option Tax Benefits: - 50 57 64 20
Treas. Stock Purch. & Other: (23) (72) (13) 139 (191)
Cash Flow from Financing: 806 180 3,701 7,796 (1,913)
Revolver Borrowing:
Cash Used for Debt Repayment:
Cash Increase / (Decrease): (8)$ 3$ (5)$ 25$ (16)$
Beginning Cash: 10 2 5 - 25
Ending Cash: 2$ 5$ -$ 25$ 9$
XTO Energy Inc. - Working Capital and Cash Flow Statement Projections
Historical
December 31, 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Accounts Receivable % Revenue: 18.3% 14.3% 15.5% 15.8% 10.6%
Accounts Payable % Expenses: 47.5% 47.9% 48.2% 45.7% 27.6%
Dry Hole % Total Exploration: 0.0% 40.9% 40.4% 25.0% 57.1%
XTO Energy Inc. - Debt Schedules
($ in Millions)
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Historical
December 31, 2009
Maximum Revolver Borrowing: 2,840
Numerical Year:
LIBOR Curve:
Interest Income: 1.0 3.0 17.0 13.0 1.0
Effective Cash Interest Rate:
End of Year Debt Amounts:
Revolver: 622$
Term Loan A: 500
Term Loan B: 100
Senior Notes - A 250
Senior Notes - B 350
Senior Notes - C 550
Senior Notes - D 400
Senior Notes - E 400
Senior Notes - F 500
Senior Notes - G 500
Senior Notes - H 348
Senior Notes - I 400
Senior Notes - J 400
Senior Notes - K 735
Senior Notes - L 773
Senior Notes - M 1,000
Senior Notes - N 591Senior Notes - O 1,399
Senior Notes - P 704
Net Discount on Senior Notes: (35)
Total Debt: 10,487$
Fixed
Interest Rate Assumptions: LIBOR + Interest
Revolver: 0.40%
Term Loan A: 0.50%
Term Loan B: 0.50%
Senior Notes - A 5.00%Senior Notes - B 7.50%
Senior Notes - C 5.90%
Senior Notes - D 6.25%
Senior Notes - E 4.63%
Senior Notes - F 5.75%
Senior Notes - G 4.90%
Senior Notes - H 5.00%
Senior Notes - I 5.30%
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Senior Notes - J 5.65%
Senior Notes - K 6.25%
Senior Notes - L 5.50%
Senior Notes - M 6.50%
Senior Notes - N 6.10%
Senior Notes - O 6.75%
Senior Notes - P 6.38%Undrawn Revolver Commitment Fee: 0.09%
Interest Increase If > 50.0% of Revolver Utilized: 50.00% 0.05%
Revolver % Drawn:
Interest Expense Calculations:
Revolver:
Term Loan A:
Term Loan B:
Senior Notes - A
Senior Notes - B
Senior Notes - C
Senior Notes - D
Senior Notes - E
Senior Notes - F
Senior Notes - G
Senior Notes - H
Senior Notes - I
Senior Notes - J
Senior Notes - K
Senior Notes - L
Senior Notes - MSenior Notes - N
Senior Notes - O
Senior Notes - P
Total Interest Expense:
Yearly
Beginning Amort. Prepay
Debt Amortization: Balance %: Allowed? Maturity
Revolver: 622$ 0.0% Yes N/A
Term Loan A: 500 10.0% Yes 2013
Term Loan B: 100 10.0% Yes 2013Senior Notes - A 250 0.0% No 2010
Senior Notes - B 350 0.0% No 2012
Senior Notes - C 550 0.0% No 2012
Senior Notes - D 400 0.0% No 2013
Senior Notes - E 400 0.0% No 2013
Senior Notes - F 500 0.0% No 2013
Senior Notes - G 500 0.0% No 2014
Senior Notes - H 348 0.0% No 2015
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Senior Notes - I 400 0.0% No 2015
Senior Notes - J 400 0.0% No 2016
Senior Notes - K 735 0.0% No 2017
Senior Notes - L 773 0.0% No 2018
Senior Notes - M 1,000 0.0% No 2018
Senior Notes - N 591 0.0% No 2036
Senior Notes - O 1,399 0.0% No 2037Senior Notes - P 704 0.0% No 2038
Sources of Funds:
Beginning Cash Balance:
Less: Minimum Cash Balance:
Plus: Cash Flow Available for Debt Repayment:
Subtotal Before Revolver:
Revolver Borrowing Required:
Total Sources of Funds:
Uses of Funds:
Mandatory Debt Repayment:
Term Loan A:
Term Loan B:
Senior Notes - A
Senior Notes - B
Senior Notes - C
Senior Notes - D
Senior Notes - E
Senior Notes - F
Senior Notes - GSenior Notes - H
Senior Notes - I
Senior Notes - J
Senior Notes - K
Senior Notes - L
Senior Notes - M
Senior Notes - N
Senior Notes - O
Senior Notes - P
Mandatory Repayment Total:
Optional Debt Repayment:
Revolver:
Term Loan A:
Term Loan B:
Senior Notes - A
Senior Notes - B
Senior Notes - C
Senior Notes - D
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Senior Notes - E
Senior Notes - F
Senior Notes - G
Senior Notes - H
Senior Notes - I
Senior Notes - J
Senior Notes - KSenior Notes - L
Senior Notes - M
Senior Notes - N
Senior Notes - O
Senior Notes - P
Optional Repayment Total:
Excess Cash Generated on Balance Sheet:
Total Uses of Funds:
Balance Check:
XTO Energy Inc. - Dividends and Stock Repurchases / Issuances
($ in Millions Except Per Share Data)
Historical
December 31, 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Dividends Per Common Share: 0.18$ 0.25$ 0.41$ 0.48$ 0.50$
Dividends Issued ($MM): 67 109 170 250 287
Stock Repurchases & Issuances:Common Stock Proceeds ($MM): - - 1,009 2,612 -
Stock Repurchases ($MM): (23) (72) (13) 139 (191)
Assumed Share Price:
# Shares Issued (MM):
# Shares Repurchased (MM):
Net Change in Shares (MM):
Average Basic Shares (MM): 448.1 456.1 471.9 531.6 575.6
Average Diluted Shares (MM): 457.0 462.2 479.2 537.5 579.4
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Projected
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
6,784$ 7,462$ 8,231$ 8,824$ 9,486$2,044 2,248 2,424 2,598 2,793
107 107 107 107 107
- - - - -
8,935 9,818 10,762 11,529 12,386
1,092 1,201 1,391 1,491 1,603
747 885 973 1,118 1,202
80 89 97 119 128
3,449 3,794 4,172 4,771 5,128
57 63 70 89 96
253 291 334 373 417
66 66 66 66 66
129 142 156 167 179
(37) (37) (37) (37) (37)
5,838 6,494 7,221 8,156 8,782
3,097$ 3,323$ 3,541$ 3,373$ 3,604$
- - - - -558 545 510 436 374
558 545 510 436 374
2,539$ 2,778$ 3,031$ 2,937$ 3,231$
299 328 357 346 381
627 687 749 726 798
927 1,014 1,106 1,072 1,179
1,612$ 1,764$ 1,925$ 1,865$ 2,051$(13) (14) (15) (15) (16)
1,599$ 1,750$ 1,909$ 1,850$ 2,035$
2.70$ 2.87$ 3.05$ 2.88$ 3.09$
2.68 2.86 3.03 2.86 3.07
0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50
592.3 609.0 625.7 642.3 659.0
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596.1 612.8 629.5 646.1 662.8
Projected
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
3,097$ 3,323$ 3,541$ 3,373$ 3,604$
5 5 5 5 5
- - - - -
- - - - -
3,449 3,794 4,172 4,771 5,128
57 63 70 89 96
129 142 156 167 179
6,738$ 7,328$ 7,943$ 8,405$ 9,013$
80 89 97 119 128
6,818$ 7,416$ 8,040$ 8,524$ 9,141$
Projected
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
11.8% 11.8% 11.8% 11.8% 11.8%
24.7% 24.7% 24.7% 24.7% 24.7%
Projected
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
357$ 1,564$ 1,929$ 1,498$ 1,631$
1,332 1,464 1,605 1,719 1,847
1,217 1,213 1,208 1,204 1,199
170 170 170 170 170
- - - - -
182 182 182 182 182
3,259 4,593 5,093 4,773 5,029
38,054 42,451 47,287 52,615 58,502
4,266 4,898 5,594 6,637 7,759
3,500 4,259 5,093 6,137 7,258
45,819 51,608 57,973 65,388 73,520
(12,196) (15,990) (20,162) (24,933) (30,061)
33,623 35,618 37,811 40,455 43,458
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68 68 68 68 68
97 97 97 97 97
1,475 1,475 1,475 1,475 1,475
133 133 133 133 133
1,773 1,773 1,773 1,773 1,773
38,655$ 41,984$ 44,677$ 47,001$ 50,261$
2,532$ 2,817$ 3,132$ 3,537$ 3,809$
28 28 28 28 28
167 167 167 167 167
342 342 342 342 342
32 32 32 32 32
3,101 3,386 3,701 4,106 4,378
9,015 9,015 8,115 6,815 6,315
6 6 6 6 6
6,149 6,836 7,585 8,311 9,109
840 904 973 1,063 1,159
80 80 80 80 80
16,091 16,841 16,759 16,275 16,669
9,331 10,197 11,077 11,968 12,872
(209) (241) (273) (305) (337)9,633 11,093 12,704 14,248 15,970
709 709 709 709 709
19,464$ 21,758$ 24,217$ 26,620$ 29,214$
38,655$ 41,984$ 44,677$ 47,001$ 50,261$
OK! OK! OK! OK! $0
Projected2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
1,612$ 1,764$ 1,925$ 1,865$ 2,051$
3,449 3,794 4,172 4,771 5,128
57 63 70 89 96
129 142 156 167 179
26 29 32 39 42
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627 687 749 726 798
- - - - -
- - - - -
5 5 5 5 5
- - - - -
- - - - -
682 153 174 291 1446,589 6,637 7,282 7,953 8,444
- - - - -
(575) (632) (695) (1,044) (1,122)
(3,900) (4,427) (4,867) (5,367) (5,930)
(690) (759) (834) (1,044) (1,122)
(5,165) (5,818) (6,397) (7,454) (8,173)
- - - - -
- - - - -
724 724 724 724 724
(296) (304) (313) (321) (330)
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
(32) (32) (32) (32) (32)
396 388 379 371 363
- - - - -
(1,472) - (900) (1,300) (500)
348$ 1,207$ 364$ (430)$ 133$
9 357 1,564 1,929 1,498
357$ 1,564$ 1,929$ 1,498$ 1,631$
Projected
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
14.9% 14.9% 14.9% 14.9% 14.9%
43.4% 43.4% 43.4% 43.4% 43.4%
32.7% 32.7% 32.7% 32.7% 32.7%
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Projected
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
0.30% 0.30% 0.50% 1.00% 2.00%
0.5 2.9 8.7 17.1 31.3
0.30% 0.30% 0.50% 1.00% 2.00%
-$ -$ -$ -$ -$
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
350 350 - - -
550 550 - - -
400 400 400 - -
400 400 400 - -
500 500 500 - -
500 500 500 500 -
348 348 348 348 348
400 400 400 400 400
400 400 400 400 400
735 735 735 735 735
773 773 773 773 773
1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
591 591 591 591 5911,399 1,399 1,399 1,399 1,399
704 704 704 704 704
(35) (35) (35) (35) (35)
9,015$ 9,015$ 8,115$ 6,815$ 6,315$
0.70% 0.70% 0.90% 1.40% 2.40%
0.80% 0.80% 1.00% 1.50% 2.50%
0.80% 0.80% 1.00% 1.50% 2.50%
5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00%7.50% 7.50% 7.50% 7.50% 7.50%
5.90% 5.90% 5.90% 5.90% 5.90%
6.25% 6.25% 6.25% 6.25% 6.25%
4.63% 4.63% 4.63% 4.63% 4.63%
5.75% 5.75% 5.75% 5.75% 5.75%
4.90% 4.90% 4.90% 4.90% 4.90%
5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00%
5.30% 5.30% 5.30% 5.30% 5.30%
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5.65% 5.65% 5.65% 5.65% 5.65%
6.25% 6.25% 6.25% 6.25% 6.25%
5.50% 5.50% 5.50% 5.50% 5.50%
6.50% 6.50% 6.50% 6.50% 6.50%
6.10% 6.10% 6.10% 6.10% 6.10%
6.75% 6.75% 6.75% 6.75% 6.75%
6.38% 6.38% 6.38% 6.38% 6.38%2.6$ 2.6$ 2.6$ 2.6$ 2.6$
0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
5$ 3$ 3$ 3$ 3$
2 - - - -
0 - - - -
6 - - - -
26 26 13 - -
32 32 16 - -
25 25 25 13 -
19 19 19 9 -
29 29 29 14 -
25 25 25 25 12
17 17 17 17 17
21 21 21 21 21
23 23 23 23 23
46 46 46 46 46
43 43 43 43 43
65 65 65 65 6536 36 36 36 36
94 94 94 94 94
45 45 45 45 45
559$ 548$ 519$ 453$ 405$
10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 70.0% 0.0%
10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 70.0% 0.0%100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%
0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%
0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%
0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
9$ 357$ 1,564$ 1,929$ 1,498$
(2) (2) (2) (2) (2)
1,820 1,207 1,264 870 633
1,827$ 1,562$ 2,827$ 2,796$ 2,129$
- - - - -
1,827$ 1,562$ 2,827$ 2,796$ 2,129$
50$ -$ -$ -$ -$
10 - - - -
250 - - - -
- - 350 - -
- - 550 - -
- - - 400 -
- - - 400 -
- - - 500 -
- - - - 500- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
310$ -$ 900$ 1,300$ 500$
622$ -$ -$ -$ -$
450 - - - -
90 - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
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- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
1,162$ -$ -$ -$ -$
355 1,562 1,927 1,496 1,629
1,827$ 1,562$ 2,827$ 2,796$ 2,129$
OK! OK! OK! OK! OK!
Projected
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
0.50$ 0.50$ 0.50$ 0.50$ 0.50$
296 304 313 321 330
724 724 724 724 724
(32) (32) (32) (32) (32)
41.49$ 41.49$ 41.49$ 41.49$ 41.49$
17.5 17.5 17.5 17.5 17.5
(0.8) (0.8) (0.8) (0.8) (0.8)
16.7 16.7 16.7 16.7 16.7
592.3 609.0 625.7 642.3 659.0
596.1 612.8 629.5 646.1 662.8
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Exxon Mobil Corporation - Income Statement
($ in Millions Except Per Share Data)
Historical
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Net Income by Segment:
E&P - United States: 6,200 5,168 4,870 6,243 2,893E&P - International: 16,529 21,062 21,627 27,539 14,214
R&M - United States: 4,111 4,250 4,120 1,649 (153)
R&M - International: 3,771 4,204 5,453 6,502 1,934
Chemicals - Global: 3,403 4,382 4,563 2,957 2,309
Other Operations: - - - - -
Existing After-Tax Interest: (188) (276) (260) (437) (356)
Revolver After-Tax Interest: - - - - -
Other Corporate: 34 300 237 (393) (1,421)
Operating Net Income: 33,860$ 39,090$ 40,610$ 44,060$ 19,420$
Special Items, Net of Taxes: 2,270 410 - 1,160 (140)
Reported Net Income: 36,130$ 39,500$ 40,610$ 45,220$ 19,280$
Net Inc. to Noncontrolling: 799 1,051 1,005 1,647 378
% Reported: 2.2% 2.7% 2.5% 3.6% 2.0%
Net Income to All: 36,929$ 40,551$ 41,615$ 46,867$ 19,658$
Earnings Per Diluted Share: 5.71$ 6.62$ 7.26$ 8.66$ 3.98$
Effective Tax Rate: 38.7% 40.8% 41.8% 43.8% 43.5%
Avg. Diluted Shares (MM): 6,322.0 5,970.0 5,594.0 5,221.0 4,848.0
Exxon Mobil Corporation - Balance Sheet
($ in Millions)
Historical
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Assets:
Current Assets:
Cash & Cash-Equivalents: 28,671$ 28,244$ 33,981$ 31,437$ 10,693$
Restricted Cash: 4,604 4,604 - - -
Marketable Securities: - - 519 570 169
Accounts Receivable, Net: 27,484 28,942 36,450 24,702 27,645
Inventory: 9,321 10,714 11,089 11,646 11,553Other Current Assets: 3,262 3,273 3,924 3,911 5,175
Total Current Assets: 73,342 75,777 85,963 72,266 55,235
Long-Term Assets:
Investments & LT Receiv.: 20,592 23,237 28,194 28,556 31,665
Net PP&E: 107,010 113,687 120,869 121,346 139,116
Other / Intangible Assets: 7,391 6,314 7,056 5,884 7,307
Total Long-Term Assets: 134,993 143,238 156,119 155,786 178,088
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Total Assets: 208,335$ 219,015$ 242,082$ 228,052$ 233,323$
Liabilities:
Current Liabilities:
Revolver: -$ -$ -$ -$ -$
Notes and Loans Payable: 1,771 1,702 2,383 2,400 2,476AP & Accrued Expenses: 36,120 39,082 45,275 36,643 41,275
Income Taxes Payable: 8,416 8,033 10,654 10,057 8,310
Total Current Liabilities: 46,307 48,817 58,312 49,100 52,061
Long-Term Liabilities:
Long-Term Debt: 6,220 6,645 7,183 7,025 7,129
Postretirement Benefits: 10,220 13,931 13,278 20,729 17,942
Deferred Income Taxes: 20,878 20,851 22,899 19,726 23,148
Other LT Obligations: 9,997 11,123 14,366 13,949 17,651
Total Long-Term Liabilities: 47,315 52,550 57,726 61,429 65,870
Total Liabilities: 93,622$ 101,367$ 116,038$ 110,529$ 117,931$
Stockholders' Equity:
Common Stock (Excl. Par): 4,477$ 4,786$ 4,933$ 5,314$ 5,503$
Treasury Stock: (55,347) (83,387) (113,678) (148,098) (166,410)
Retained Earnings: 163,335 195,207 228,518 265,680 276,937
Accum. Other Comp. Inc.: (1,279) (2,762) 1,989 (9,931) (5,461)
Total Stockholders' Equity: 111,186$ 113,844$ 121,762$ 112,965$ 110,569$
Noncontrolling Interests: 3,527 3,804 4,282 4,558 4,823
Total Liabilities & Equity: 208,335$ 219,015$ 242,082$ 228,052$ 233,323$
Balance Check: OK! OK! OK! OK! OK!
Exxon Mobil Corporation - Cash Flow Statement
($ in Millions)
Historical
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Operating Activities:
Net Income to Common: 36,130$ 39,500$ 40,610$ 45,220$ 19,280$Net Inc. to Noncontrolling: 799 1,051 1,005 1,647 378
Adjustments to NI:
Depreciation & Depletion: 10,253 11,416 12,250 12,379 11,917
Def. Inc. Tax / (Credit): (429) 1,717 124 1,399 -
Pensions + / (-) Payments: 254 (1,787) (1,314) 57 (1,722)
LT Obli. + / (-) Payments: 398 (666) 1,065 (63) 731
Div. + / (-) Equity Interests: (734) (579) (714) 921 (483)
Change in AR: (3,700) (181) (5,441) 8,641 (3,170)
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Change in Inventory: (434) (1,057) 72 (1,285) 459
Change in Oth. Cur. Assets: (7) (385) 280 (509) 132
Change in AP & Accrued: 7,806 1,160 6,228 (5,415) 1,420
Net (Gain) on Asset Sales: (1,980) (1,531) (2,217) (3,757) (488)
All Other Items - Net (218) 628 54 490 (16)
Cash Flow from Operations: 48,138 49,286 52,002 59,725 28,438
Investing Activities:
Capital Expenditures: (13,839) (15,462) (15,387) (19,318) (22,491)
Sales of Invest. and PP&E: 6,036 3,080 4,204 5,985 1,545
Decrease in Restricted Cash: - - 4,604 - -
Add'tl Invest. / Advances: (2,810) (2,604) (3,038) (2,495) (2,752)
Collection of Advances: 343 756 391 574 724
Mark. Securities Additions: - - (646) (2,113) (16)
Sales of Mark. Securities: - - 144 1,868 571
Cash Flow from Investing: (10,270) (14,230) (9,728) (15,499) (22,419)
Financing Activities:
Additions to LT Debt: 195 318 592 79 225
Payments of LT Debt: (81) (33) (209) (192) (68)
Additions to ST Debt: 377 334 1,211 1,067 1,336
Payments of ST Debt: (687) (451) (809) (1,624) (1,575)
Other Debt Changes: (1,306) (95) (187) 143 (71)
Dividends to Common: (7,185) (7,628) (7,621) (8,058) (8,023)
Dividends to Noncontrolling: (293) (239) (289) (375) (280)
Changes in Noncontrolling: (681) (493) (659) (419) (113)
SBC Tax Benefits: - 462 369 333 237
Treasury Stock Purchased: (18,221) (29,558) (31,822) (35,734) (19,703)Common Stock Issued: 941 1,173 1,079 753 752
Cash Flow from Financing: (26,941) (36,210) (38,345) (44,027) (27,283)
FX Rate Effect: (787) 727 1,808 (2,743) 520
Cash Increase / (Decrease): 10,140$ (427)$ 5,737$ (2,544)$ (20,744)$
Beginning Cash: 18,531 28,671 28,244 33,981 31,437
Less: Minimum Cash:
Required Borrowing:
Revolver Repayments:
Ending Cash: 28,671$ 28,244$ 33,981$ 31,437$ 10,693$
Exxon Mobil Corporation - Working Capital Projections
Historical
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
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Accounts Receivable % NI: 76.1% 73.3% 89.8% 54.6% 143.4%
Inventory % NI: 25.8% 27.1% 27.3% 25.8% 59.9%
AP & Accrued % NI: 100.0% 98.9% 111.5% 81.0% 214.1%
Exxon Mobil Corporation - Debt and Interest Schedule for New Debt Issuances
Historical
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
LIBOR:
End of Year Debt Amounts:
Revolver: -$
Fixed
Interest Rate Assumptions: LIBOR + Interest
Revolver: 0.40%
Interest Expense Calculations:
Revolver:
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Projected
2010 2011 2012
4,772 4,736 4,65420,521 20,759 22,080
763 1,571 1,303
1,823 2,991 3,128
3,570 3,150 3,235
- - -
(145) (144) (143)
- (19) (67)
(2,247) (2,281) (2,315)
29,057$ 30,763$ 31,875$
- - -
29,057$ 30,763$ 31,875$
753 797 826
2.6% 2.6% 2.6%
29,810$ 31,560$ 32,700$
6.25$ 7.12$ 7.94$
43.5% 43.5% 43.5%
4,649.1 4,320.6 4,014.4
Projected
2010 2011 2012
5,509$ 5,000$ 5,000$
- - -
169 169 169
25,402 26,894 27,865
9,641 10,207 10,5765,175 5,175 5,175
45,897 47,445 48,786
34,165 36,665 39,165
146,664 153,411 160,024
7,307 7,307 7,307
188,136 197,383 206,496
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234,033$ 244,828$ 255,282$
-$ 9,659$ 16,876$
2,476 2,476 2,47635,189 37,255 38,601
8,310 8,310 8,310
45,975 57,699 66,264
7,129 7,129 7,129
17,040 16,137 15,235
23,648 24,148 24,648
17,944 18,237 18,530
65,761 65,651 65,542
111,736$ 123,351$ 131,805$
5,503 5,503 5,503
(180,894) (204,818) (227,120)
297,389 319,511 342,800
(5,276) (5,091) (4,905)
116,722$ 115,105$ 116,278$
5,576 6,372 7,198
234,033$ 244,828$ 255,282$
OK! OK! OK!
Projected
2010 2011 2012
29,057$ 30,763$ 31,875$753 797 826
13,443 14,244 14,378
500 500 500
(902) (902) (902)
293 293 293
(318) (318) (318)
2,243 (1,491) (972)
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1,912 (566) (369)
- - -
(6,086) 2,066 1,346
- - -
- - -
40,894 45,385 46,656
(22,491) (22,491) (22,491)
1,500 1,500 1,500
- - -
(2,740) (2,740) (2,740)
558 558 558
- - -
- - -
(23,173) (23,173) (23,173)
- - -
- - -
- - -
- - -
- - -
(8,310) (8,346) (8,290)
(295) (295) (295)
- - -
280 280 280
(14,484) (23,924) (22,301)- - -
(22,809) (32,285) (30,606)
(95) (95) (95)
(5,184)$ (10,168)$ (7,218)$
10,693 5,509 5,000
(5,000) (5,000) (5,000)
- 9,659 7,218
- - -
5,509$ 5,000$ 5,000$
Projected
2010 2011 2012
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44/75
87.4% 87.4% 87.4%
33.2% 33.2% 33.2%
121.1% 121.1% 121.1%
Projected
2010 2011 2012
0.30% 0.30% 0.50%
-$ 9,659$ 16,876$
0.70% 0.70% 0.90%
-$ 34$ 119$
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Comparable Companies - North American Oil & Gas E&P Companies with Over 10 Tcfe Proved Reserves
($ in Millions Except Per Share, Reserve, and Production Data)
Operating Statistics Capitalization
Equity Enterprise EBITDAX(3)
Company Name Value(1)
Value(1)(2)
TTM 12/31/2010 12/31/2011Chesapeake Energy Corporation 15,489$ 29,710$ 4,509$ 4,571$ 4,949$
Anadarko Petroleum 28,937 40,880 5,743 8,099 9,908
Occidental Petroleum Corporation 61,989 64,381 8,447 12,659 16,428
Apache Corporation 32,252 37,384 5,989 8,264 9,694
Devon Energy Corporation 28,999 37,353 4,797 6,364 5,613
EOG Resources, Inc. 22,289 24,882 1,761 4,375 5,507
Maximum 61,989$ 64,381$ 8,447$ 12,659$ 16,428$
75th Percentile 31,439 40,006 5,927 8,223 9,855
Median 28,968$ 37,368$ 5,270$ 7,232$ 7,654$
25th Percentile 23,951 31,620 4,581 5,019 5,534
Minimum 15,489 24,882 1,761 4,375 4,949
XTO Energy Inc. 24,542$ 34,686$ 7,150$ 6,818$ 7,416$
Valuation Statistics Capitalization Enterprise Value /
Equity Enterprise EBITDAX(3)
Company Name Value(1)
Value(1)(2)
TTM 12/31/2010 12/31/2011
Chesapeake Energy Corporation 15,489$ 29,710$ 6.6 x 6.5 x 6.0 x
Anadarko Petroleum 28,937 40,880 7.1 x 5.0 x 4.1 x
Occidental Petroleum Corporation 61,989 64,381 7.6 x 5.1 x 3.9 x
Apache Corporation 32,252 37,384 6.2 x 4.5 x 3.9 x
Devon Energy Corporation 28,999 37,353 7.8 x 5.9 x 6.7 x
EOG Resources, Inc. 22,289 24,882 14.1 x 5.7 x 4.5 x
Maximum 61,989$ 64,381$ 14.1 x 6.5 x 6.7 x
75th Percentile 31,439 40,006 7.7 x 5.8 x 5.6 x
Median 28,968$ 37,368$ 7.4 x 5.4 x 4.3 x
25th Percentile 23,951 31,620 6.7 x 5.1 x 4.0 x
Minimum 15,489 24,882 6.2 x 4.5 x 3.9 x
XTO Energy Inc. 24,542$ 34,686$ 4.9 x 5.1 x 4.7 x
(1) Valuation as of 12/11/2009.
(2) Enterprise Value defined as Equity Value less Cash & Cash Equivalents, less Net Value of Derivatives, les
Obligation, plus Capital Leases, plus Unfunded Pension Obligations, plus Preferred Stock, plus Noncontrolli
(3) EBITDAX defined as Operating Income plus DD&A, plus Asset Retirement Accretion, plus Stock-Based C
Other One-Time and Restructuring Charges, plus Exploration Expense.
(4) Oil Mix % Based on TTM Production Data rather than Reserves.
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Proved Daily Proved R / P
Reserves Production Production Developed Oil Ratio
(Bcfe) (MMcfe) Areas / Proved Mix %(4)
(Years)14,254.0 2,480.8 US Diversified 58.4% 7.8% 15.7
13,824.0 3,624.0 International; US-Focused 70.5% 30.9% 10.5
19,350.0 3,870.0 International 77.3% 76.2% 13.7
14,199.5 3,499.7 International 69.1% 47.8% 11.1
16,398.0 3,830.1 US & Canada 70.3% 18.0% 11.7
10,776.1 2,118.0 US, Canada & Trinidad 54.4% 15.6% 13.9
19,350.0 3,870.0 77.3% 76.2% 15.7
15,862.0 3,778.6 70.4% 43.6% 13.9
14,226.8 3,561.9 69.7% 24.5% 12.7
13,917.9 2,735.5 61.1% 16.2% 11.3
10,776.1 2,118.0 54.4% 7.8% 10.5
14,827.3 2,863.6 US Diversified 60.7% 13.9% 14.2
Enterprise Value /
Proved Daily
Reserves Production
2.08$ 11.98$
2.96 11.28
3.33 16.64
2.63 10.68
2.28 9.75
2.31 11.75
3.33$ 16.64$
2.88 11.92
2.47$ 11.51$
2.29 10.83
2.08 9.75
2.34$ 12.11$
s Investments in Equity Companies, plus Total Debt, plus Asset Retirement
g Interests.
mpensation, plus Non-Cash Derivative Losses, plus Impairment Charges, plus
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CHK
Chesapeake Energy Corporation
Calendarization
Old Partial New Partial FY TTM
Operating Income: (8,945)$ (8,945)$
Plus: DD&A: 1,615 1,615Plus: Asset Retirement Accretion: - -
Plus: Stock-Based Compensation: 140 140
Plus: Non-Cash Derivative Losses: 497 497
Plus: Impairment Charge: 11,130 11,130
Plus: Other One-Time Charges: 72 72
EBITDA: -$ -$ 4,509$ 4,509$
Plus: Exploration: - -
EBITDAX: -$ -$ 4,509$ 4,509$
Tax Rate: 38%
Production Data
Proved Reserves (Bcfe): 14,254.0
Production Area: US Diversified
Proved Developed Reserves (Bcfe): 8,331.0
Daily Production (MMcfe): 2,480.8
Period Production (Bcfe): 905.5 905.5
Oil, Period Production (Bcfe): 70.8 70.8
Balance Sheet Data
Cash & Cash-Equivalents: 307$Net Value of Derivatives: (62)
Investments in Equity Companies: 404
Total Debt: 12,295
Asset Retirement Obligation: 282
Capital Leases, Pensions & Other: 930
Preferred Stock: 466
Noncontrolling Interests: 897
Equity Research Projections
12/31/2010 12/31/2011 12/31/2012
Bank: DBDate: 02.03.2010
EBITDA: 4,571$ 4,949$ N/A
Plus: Exploration: - - N/A
EBITDAX: 4,571$ 4,949$ N/A
Diluted Shares Calculation
Current Share Price: 23.03$
Common Shares: 651.86
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Restricted Shares: 19.22
Options, Warrants & Other Dilutive: Total Strike Dilution
0.13 3.82$ 0.10
0.26 5.20 0.20
0.12 5.54 0.09
0.42 6.11 0.310.09 6.95 0.06
0.38 7.80 0.25
0.11 8.58 0.07
0.43 10.08 0.24
0.25 13.31 0.11
0.09 19.72 0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Total Diluted Shares: 672.54
Valuation Metrics
Equity Value: 15,489$
Enterprise Value: 29,710
Beta: 1.15
Valuation Multiples
TTM 12/31/2010 12/31/2011 12/31/2012EV / EBITDA: 6.6 x 6.5 x 6.0 x N/A
EV / EBITDAX: 6.6 x 6.5 x 6.0 x N/A
EV / Proved Reserves: 2.08$ N/A N/A N/A
EV / Daily Production: 11.98$ N/A N/A N/A
Lookup Variables
12/31/2010 EBITDA: 4,571
12/31/2010 EBITDAX: 4,571
12/31/2011 EBITDA: 4,94912/31/2011 EBITDAX: 4,949
12/31/2012 EBITDA: N/A
12/31/2012 EBITDAX: N/A
TTM EV / EBITDA: 6.6 x
TTM EV / EBITDAX: 6.6 x
TTM EV / Proved Reserves: 2.08$
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TTM EV / Daily Production: 11.98$
12/31/2010 EV / EBITDA: 6.5 x
12/31/2010 EV / EBITDAX: 6.5 x
12/31/2011 EV / EBITDA: 6.0 x
12/31/2011 EV / EBITDAX: 6.0 x
12/31/2012 EV / EBITDA: N/A
12/31/2012 EV / EBITDAX: N/A
Proved Developed / Total Proved: 58.4%
Oil Mix %: 7.8%
R / P Ratio: 15.7
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3.83
Total Strike Dilution
9.48 42.01$ 2.61
0.00
0.00
0.000.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
499.00
28,937$
40,880
1.41
Valuation Multiples
TTM 12/31/2010 12/31/2011 12/31/2012 TTM8.8 x 5.8 x 4.6 x N/A 7.9 x
7.1 x 5.0 x 4.1 x N/A 7.6 x
2.96$ N/A N/A N/A 3.33$
11.28$ N/A N/A N/A 16.64$
Lookup Variables
6,992
8,099
8,8019,908
N/A
N/A
8.8 x
7.1 x
2.96$
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11.28$
5.8 x
5.0 x
4.6 x
4.1 x
N/A
N/A
70.5%
30.9%
10.5
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OXY
Occidental Petroleum Corporation Apach
Calendarization Calendarization
New Partial FY TTM Old Partial New Partial FY
4,669$ 4,669$ 326$
3,117 3,117 5,21336 36 105
151 151 104
- - (2)
170 170 -
37 37 242
-$ 8,180$ 8,180$ -$ -$ 5,989$
267 267 -
-$ 8,447$ 8,447$ -$ -$ 5,989$
40%
Production Data Production Data
19,350.0
International
14,957.0
3,870.0
1,410.0 1,410.0 1,277.4
1,074.0 1,074.0 610.4
Balance Sheet Data Balance Sheet Data
1,230$(339)
1,732
2,796
722
1,419
-
78
Equity Research Projections Equity Research Projections
12/31/2011 12/31/2012 12/31/2010 12/31/2011 12/31/2012
MS01.28.2010
16,176$ 17,681$ 8,264$ 9,694$ N/A
252 287 - - N/A
16,428$ 17,968$ 8,264$ 9,694$ N/A
Diluted Shares Calculation Diluted Shares Calculation
76.00$
811.96
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1.51
Total Strike Dilution Total Strike
2.41 30.40$ 1.45 5.92 72.29$
1.09 24.66 0.73 1.56 216.00
0.00 1.04 162.00
0.00 0.26 81.000.00 0.84 108.00
0.00 0.78 34.68
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
815.64
61,989$
64,381
0.98
Valuation Multiples Valuation Multiples
12/31/2010 12/31/2011 12/31/2012 TTM 12/31/2010 12/31/20115.2 x 4.0 x 3.6 x 6.2 x 4.5 x 3.9 x
5.1 x 3.9 x 3.6 x 6.2 x 4.5 x 3.9 x
N/A N/A N/A 2.63$ N/A N/A
N/A N/A N/A 10.68$ N/A N/A
Lookup Variables Lookup Variables
12,441
12,659
16,17616,428
17,681
17,968
7.9 x
7.6 x
3.33$
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16.64$
5.2 x
5.1 x
4.0 x
3.9 x
3.6 x
3.6 x
77.3%
76.2%
13.7
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APA DVN
e Corporation Devon Energy Corporation
Calendarization
TTM Old Partial New Partial FY TTM
326$ (4,526)$ (4,526)$
5,213 2,108 2,108105 91 91
104 209 209
(2) 121 121
- 6,408 6,408
242 386 386
5,989$ -$ -$ 4,797$ 4,797$
- - -
5,989$ -$ -$ 4,797$ 4,797$
40% 35%
Production Data
14,199.5 16,398.0
International US & Canada
9,813.4 11,532.0
3,499.7 3,830.14
1,277.4 1,398.0 1,398.0
610.4 252.0 252.0
Balance Sheet Data
2,048$ 646$(266) 304
- -
5,068 7,279
1,784 1,513
63 512
- -
- -
Equity Research Projections
12/31/2010 12/31/2011 12/31/2012
WF PCP01.28.2010 11.18.2009
6,364$ 5,613$ N/A
- - N/A
6,364$ 5,613$ N/A
Diluted Shares Calculation
94.63$ 63.89$
336.55 446.80
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8/12/2019 72 11 NAV Part 4 Share Prices After
57/75
1.84 6.17
Dilution Total Strike Dilution
1.40 12.16 59.07$ 0.92
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
0.26 0.000.00 0.00
0.78 0.00
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
340.82 453.88
32,252$ 28,999$
37,384 37,353
1.19 1.05
Valuation Multiples
12/31/2012 TTM 12/31/2010 12/31/2011 12/31/2012N/A 7.8 x 5.9 x 6.7 x N/A
N/A 7.8 x 5.9 x 6.7 x N/A
N/A 2.28$ N/A N/A N/A
N/A 9.75$ N/A N/A N/A
Lookup Variables
8,264 6,364
8,264 6,364
9,694 5,6139,694 5,613
N/A N/A
N/A N/A
6.2 x 7.8 x
6.2 x 7.8 x
2.63$ 2.28$
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8/12/2019 72 11 NAV Part 4 Share Prices After
58/75
10.68$ 9.75$
4.5 x 5.9 x
4.5 x 5.9 x
3.9 x 6.7 x
3.9 x 6.7 x
N/A N/A
N/A N/A
69.1% 70.3%
47.8% 18.0%
11.1 11.7
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8/12/2019 72 11 NAV Part 4 Share Prices After
59/75
EOG
EOG Resources, Inc.
Calendarization Calenda
Old Partial New Partial FY TTM Old Partial New Partial
971$ 971$
1,549 1,549- -
95 95
(846) (846)
306 306
(535) (535)
-$ -$ 1,540$ 1,540$ -$ -$
221 221
-$ -$ 1,761$ 1,761$ -$ -$
37%
Production Data Producti
10,776.1
US, Canada & Trinidad
5,858.2
2,118.0
773.0 773.0
120.9 120.9
Balance Sheet Data Balance S
686$(65)
41
2,797
456
1
-
-
Equity Research Projections Equity Resear
12/31/2010 12/31/2011 12/31/2012 12/31/2010 12/31/2011
MS01.12.2010
4,028$ 5,092$ N/A 6,738$ 7,328$
347 415 N/A 80 89
4,375$ 5,507$ N/A 6,818$ 7,416$
Diluted Shares Calculation Diluted Share
86.05$
252.58
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8/12/2019 72 11 NAV Part 4 Share Prices After
60/75
3.64
Total Strike Dilution Total
0.48 16.60$ 0.38 18.37
1.43 18.37 1.12 2.60
0.68 23.42 0.50 0.39
2.31 61.94 0.65 0.233.44 82.13 0.16 0.25
0.00 0.25
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
259.02
22,289$
24,882
0.93
Valuation Multiples Valuation
TTM 12/31/2010 12/31/2011 12/31/2012 TTM 12/31/201016.2 x 6.2 x 4.9 x N/A 4.9 x 5.1 x
14.1 x 5.7 x 4.5 x N/A 4.9 x 5.1 x
2.31$ N/A N/A N/A 2.34$ N/A
11.75$ N/A N/A N/A 12.11$ N/A
Lookup Variables Lookup
4,028
4,375
5,0925,507
N/A
N/A
16.2 x
14.1 x
2.31$
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8/12/2019 72 11 NAV Part 4 Share Prices After
61/75
11.75$
6.2 x
5.7 x
4.9 x
4.5 x
N/A
N/A
54.4%
15.6%
13.9
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8/12/2019 72 11 NAV Part 4 Share Prices After
62/75
XTO
XTO Energy Inc.
rization
FY TTM
3,687$ 3,687$
3,079 3,07940 40
137 137
130 130
- -
- -
7,073$ 7,073$
77 77
7,150$ 7,150$
36%
on Data
14,827.3
US Diversified
9,004.9
2,863.6
1,045.2 1,045.2
145.2 145.2
heet Data
9$1,117
-
10,487
783
-
-
-
ch Projections
12/31/2012
N/AN/A
7,943$
97
8,040$
s Calculation
41.49$
583.34
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8/12/2019 72 11 NAV Part 4 Share Prices After
63/75
5.49
Strike Dilution
38.39$ 1.37
20.78 1.30
50.00 0.00
55.00 0.0077.00 0.00
85.00 0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
591.51
24,542$
34,686
1.10
Multiples
12/31/2011 12/31/20124.7 x 4.4 x
4.7 x 4.3 x
N/A N/A
N/A N/A
ariables
6,738
6,818
7,3287,416
7,943
8,040
4.9 x
4.9 x
2.34$
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8/12/2019 72 11 NAV Part 4 Share Prices After
64/75
12.11$
5.1 x
5.1 x
4.7 x
4.7 x
4.4 x
4.3 x
60.7%
13.9%
14.2
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8/12/2019 72 11 NAV Part 4 Share Prices After
65/75
Precedent Transactions - Oil & Gas M&A Deals Worth Over $2 Billion USD with North American-Base
($ in Millions USD Except Per Share, Reserve, and Production Data)
XTO Energy Inc. - Comparable M&A Transactions
Transacti
Announce EquityAcquirer Name Target Name Date Value
(1)
Suncor Energy Inc. Petro-Canada 3/23/2009 15,515$
Denbury Resources Inc. Encore Acquisition Company 11/3/2009 2,875
Petrobank Energy and Resources Ltd. TriStar Oil & Gas Ltd. 8/5/2009 2,112
Shell Canada Limited Duvernay Oil Corp. 7/14/2008 5,193
XTO Energy Inc. Hunt Petroleum Corp. 6/10/2008 4,186
Maximum 15,515$
75th Percentile 5,193
Median 4,186$
25th Percentile 2,875
Minimum 2,112
(1) Valuation as of announcement date, assuming per-share offer price from acquirer.
(2) Enterprise Value defined as Equity Value less Cash & Cash Equivalents, less Net Value of Derivatives,
Obligation, plus Capital Leases, plus Unfunded Pension Obligations, plus Preferred Stock, plus Noncontr
(3) Oil Mix % Based on TTM Production Data rather than Reserves.
(4) EBITDAX defined as Operating Income plus DD&A, plus Asset Retirement Accretion, plus Stock-Base
Other One-Time and Restructuring Charges, plus Exploration Expense.
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8/12/2019 72 11 NAV Part 4 Share Prices After
66/75
Sellers Since 1/1/2008
Operating Metrics - TTM:
on Value Proved R / P Proved Daily
Enterprise Production Developed Oil Ratio Reserves ProductionValue
(2)Areas / Proved Mix %
(3)(Years) EBITDAX
(4)(Bcfe) (MMcfe)
19,407$ Canada 54.0% 71.9% 8.4 7,477$ 7,716.0 2,508.2
4,419 US Diversified 80.1% 65.4% 12.1 518 1,114.2 259.4
2,478 Canada 74.0% 72.9% 6.9 210 316.0 122.4
5,696 Canada 50.2% 10.7% 9.8 267 467.7 144.6
4,480 US Diversified 62.0% N/A N/A 1,200 1,052.0 261.8
19,407$ 80.1% 72.9% 12.1 7,477$ 7,716$ 2,508$
5,696 74.0% 72.2% 10.4 1,200 1,114 262
4,480$ 62.0% 68.7% 9.1 518$ 1,052$ 259$
4,419 54.0% 51.7% 8.0 267 468 145
2,478 50.2% 10.7% 6.9 210 316 122
less Investments in Equity Companies, plus Total Debt, plus Asset Retirement
olling Interests.
d Compensation, plus Non-Cash Derivative Losses, plus Impairment Charges, plus
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8/12/2019 72 11 NAV Part 4 Share Prices After
67/75
Transaction Valuation Multiples:
Proved DailyEBITDAX
(4)Reserves Production
2.6 x 2.52$ 7.74$
8.5 x 3.97 17.04
11.8 x 7.84 20.24
21.3 x 12.18 39.39
3.7 x 4.26 17.11
21.3 x 12.18$ 39.39$
11.8 x 7.84 20.24
8.5 x 4.26 17.11
3.7 x 3.97 17.04
2.6 x 2.52 7.74
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8/12/2019 72 11 NAV Part 4 Share Prices After
68/75
TSX:PCA
Petro-Canada
Suncor Energy Inc.
Calendarization
Interim Period: 12/31/2008
FY Ends: 12/31/2008Old Partial New Partial FY TTM
Operating Income: 5,753$ 5,753$
Plus: DD&A: 2,155 2,155
Plus: Asset Retirement Accretion: 79 79
Plus: Stock-Based Compensation: - -
Plus: Non-Cash Derivative Losses: - -
Plus: Impairment Charge: - -
Plus: Other One-Time Charges: 706 706
EBITDA: 8,693$ 8,693$
Plus: Exploration: 587 587
EBITDAX: 9,280$ 9,280$
Production Data
Proved Reserves (Bcfe): 7,716.0
Production Areas: Canada
Proved Developed Reserves (Bcfe): 4,166.6
Daily Production (MMcfe): 2,508.2
Period Production (Bcfe): 918.0 918.0
Oil, Period Production (Bcfe): 660.0 660.0
Balance Sheet DataCash & Cash-Equivalents: 1,445$
Net Value of Derivatives: -
Investments in Equity Companies: -
Total Debt: 4,749
Asset Retirement Obligation: 1,527
Capital Leases, Pensions & Other: -
Preferred Stock: -
Noncontrolling Interests: -
Equity Research Projections
N/A N/A N/ABank: N/A
Date: N/A
EBITDA: N/A N/A N/A
Plus: Exploration: N/A N/A N/A
EBITDAX: N/A N/A N/A
Diluted Shares Calculation
Announcement Date: 3/23/2009
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FX Exchange Rate: 0.8057
Offer Price Per Share: 39.55$
Common Shares: 484.60
Restricted Shares: -
Options, Warrants & Other Dilutive: Total Strike Dilution
22.13 37.00$ 1.430.83 0.83
7.21 46.00 0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Total Diluted Shares: 486.85
Transaction Valuation Metrics
Equity Value: 19,256$
Enterprise Value: 24,087
Valuation Multiples
TTM N/A N/A N/A
EV / EBITDA: 2.8 x N/A N/A N/A
EV / EBITDAX: 2.6 x N/A N/A N/A
EV / Proved Reserves: 3.12$ N/A N/A N/A
EV / Daily Production: 9.60$ N/A N/A N/A
Lookup Variables
TTM EV / EBITDA: 2.8 x
TTM EV / EBITDAX: 2.6 xTTM EV / Proved Reserves: 3.12$
TTM EV / Daily Production: 9.60$
Proved Developed / Total Proved: 54.0%
Oil Mix %: 71.9%
R / P Ratio: 8.4
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70/75
EAC
Encore Acquisition Company
Denbury Resources Inc.
Calendarization
Interim Period: 9/30/2009 Interim Period:
FY Ends: 12/31/2008 FY Ends:Old Partial New Partial FY TTM Old Partial
388$ (39)$ 796$ 369$ (42)$
159 217 228 286 118
- - - - -
10 10 14 14 3
38 106 (300) (232) 129
26 - 60 33 -
0 (1) (4) (4) 7
622$ 293$ 794$ 465$ 215$
30 44 39 53 -
652$ 337$ 834$ 518$ 215$
Production Data
1,114.2
US Diversified
892.8
259.4
63.6 69.1 86.7 92.2 21.7
44.7 44.7 60.3 60.3 15.7
Balance Sheet Data7$
23
-
1,243
54
1
-
275
Equity Research Projections
N/A N/A N/A N/AN/A
N/A
N/A N/A N/A N/A
N/A N/A N/A N/A
N/A N/A N/A N/A
Diluted Shares Calculation
11/3/2009
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8/12/2019 72 11 NAV Part 4 Share Prices After
71/75
1.0000
50.00$
55.54
0.92
Total Strike Dilution
1.73 19.85$ 1.040.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
57.51
Transaction Valuation Metrics
2,875$
4,419
Valuation Multiples
TTM N/A N/A N/A TTM
9.5 x N/A N/A N/A 11.8 x
8.5 x N/A N/A N/A 11.8 x
3.97$ N/A N/A N/A 8.38$
17.04$ N/A N/A N/A 21.63$
Lookup Variables
9.5 x
8.5 x3.97$
17.04$
80.1%
65.4%
12.1
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8/12/2019 72 11 NAV Part 4 Share Prices After
72/75
TS
TriStar Oil & Gas Ltd. Duve
Petrobank Energy and Resources Ltd. Shell C
Calendarization Calendarization
6/30/2009 Interim Period:
12/31/2008 FY Ends:New Partial FY TTM Old Partial New Partial FY
(78)$ 158$ 122$ 16$ (17)$ 61$
119 246 247 39 47 158
- - - - - -
5 7 9 2 3 9
37 (73) (166) 7 41 10
- - - - - -
5 13 11 4 6 21
87$ 352$ 224$ 68$ 79$ 259$
- - - - - -
87$ 352$ 224$ 68$ 79$ 259$
Production Data Production Data
316.0
Canada
233.8
122.4
22.4 45.2 45.9 11.3 13.2 45.9
17.7 31.5 33.5 1.2 1.3 5.0
Balance Sheet Data Balance Sheet Data-$
(0)
-
348
42
-
-
-
Equity Research Projections Equity Research Projections
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/AN/A
N/A
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Diluted Shares Calculation Diluted Shares Calculation
8/5/2009
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8/12/2019 72 11 NAV Part 4 Share Prices After
73/75
0.9357
14.75$
152.04
-
Total Strike Dilution Total Strike
4.24 11.23$ 1.01 5.42 29.30$0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
153.05
ransaction Valuation Metrics Transaction Valuation Metrics
2,257$
2,648
Valuation Multiples Valuation Multiples
N/A N/A N/A TTM N/A N/A
N/A N/A N/A 21.3 x N/A N/A
N/A N/A N/A 21.3 x N/A N/A
N/A N/A N/A 12.30$ N/A N/A
N/A N/A N/A 39.77$ N/A N/A
Lookup Variables Lookup Variables
11.8 x
11.8 x8.38$
21.63$
74.0%
72.9%
6.9
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8/12/2019 72 11 NAV Part 4 Share Prices After
74/75
DUV HNT
nay Oil Corp. Hunt Petroleum Corp.
nada Limited XTO Energy Inc.
Calendarization
3/31/2008 Interim Period: 6/30/2008
12/31/2007 FY Ends: 12/31/2007TTM Old Partial New Partial FY TTM
28$ N/A N/A N/A N/A
165 N/A N/A N/A N/A
- N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 N/A N/A N/A N/A
44 N/A N/A N/A N/A
- N/A N/A N/A N/A
23 N/A N/A N/A N/A
270$ N/A N/A N/A 1,200$
- N/A N/A N/A N/A
270$ N/A N/A N/A 1,200$
Production Data
467.7 1,052.0
Canada US Diversified
234.6 652.2
144.6 261.8
47.8 -
5.1 -
Balance Sheet Data-$ 198$
(42) -
15 -
464 337
16 155
- -
- -
- -
Equity Research Projections
N/A N/A N/AN/A N/A
N/A N/A
N/A N/A N/A
N/A N/A N/A
N/A N/A N/A
Diluted Shares Calculation
7/14/2008 6/10/2008
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8/12/2019 72 11 NAV Part 4 Share Prices After
75/75
0.9904 1.0000
83.00$
59.67
-
Dilution Total Strike Dilution
3.51 0.000.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
63.18 0.00
Transaction Valuation Metrics
5,244$ 4,186$
5,751 4,480
Valuation Multiples
N/A TTM N/A N/A N/A
N/A 3.7 x N/A N/A N/A
N/A 3.7 x N/A N/A N/A
N/A 4.26$ N/A N/A N/A
N/A 17.11$ N/A N/A N/A
Lookup Variables
21.3 x 3.7 x