6th march,2015 daily exclusive oryza rice e newsletter by riceplus magazine

Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter www.ricepluss.com

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Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice

Newsletter

Volume 5, Issue I

March 06, 2015


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Cambodia Rice Federation Seeks Tougher

Code of Conduct for Exporters to Safeguard

Prices

Mar 05, 2015

The Cambodia Rice Federation (CRF) has urged the government to strictly implement the Code

of Conduct, which was devised in February 2014, to prohibit local trading firms export cheap

rice from neighboring countries under the Cambodian brand, according to local sources.The

Code of Conduct was basically meant to reassure the European Union (EU) that Cambodia was

not violating the Everything But Arms Agreement, under which the EU imported rice from Least

Developed Nations (LDCs) at zero-percent duty to support their economies and farmers.


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Currently, punishment for violation of the code includes revoking exporters' certification of

origin, effectively barring them from exporting.

However, the CRF noted that Code was not implemented properly since its inception. Local

sources quoted a statement from the CRF as saying a "laissez-faire" environment and lack of

investigation has led to price falls and consequently putting Cambodia's reputation at risk. The

Senior Advisor to the CRF urged the government to set up a disciplinary committee to

investigate potential violation of the code. He confirmed that some traders have been selling rice

to overseas buyers at below market prices.

Identifying the culprits is a major issue, said another major exporter, but a mechanism should be

found to identify wrongdoers, he added.Cambodia is planning to increase its official rice exports

to one million tons this year, but there are concerns over the government achieving this target

due to lack of sufficient milling capacity and funding. Recently, the CRF agreed to levy a fee of

$1 per ton of fragrant rice and 40.5 per ton of long-grain white rice towards collection of

requisite fund for rice sector development. It is also

USDA estimates Cambodia to export 1.1 million tons of rice (including official and unofficial

exports to Vietnam and Thailand through borders) in 2015, up about 10% from around 1 million

tons in 2014.

Oryza Overnight Recap – Chicago Rough

Rice Futures Get off to a Shaky Start Despite

Firmer Grains

Mar 05, 2015

Chicago rough rice futures for May delivery are currently listed 8.5 cents per cwt (about $2 per

ton) higher at $10.640 per cwt (about $239 per ton) during early floor trading in Chicago. The

other grains are seen trading mostly higher this morning: soybeans are currently seen about 0.1%

higher, wheat is listed about 1.3% lower and corn is currently noted about 0.4% higher.U.S.

stocks opened higher on Thursday, boosted by details on quantitative easing in the euro zone

ahead of domestic data.

The ECB will start its 1 trillion euro ($1.1 trillion) bond-buying program on March 9, with

expectations to end in September 2016, Draghi said during a press conference. The euro edged


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higher but still held below $1.11. Earlier, the euro touched an 11-year low in European trading

ahead of the meeting. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield dipped to 2.10 percent. The U.S. dollar

traded higher against major world currencies. U.S. monthly jobless claims rose 7,000 to a

seasonally adjusted 320,000 for the week ended Feb. 28, above estimates. Productivity topped

estimates with a decline of 2.2% versus estimates of a 2.3% decline but below the 1.8% pace it

had reported last month.

Traders are also waiting for Friday's February U.S. jobs report, expected to be show about

240,000 nonfarm payrolls, below the 257,000 last month. The Dow Jones Industrial Average

opened up 13.20 points, or 0.07%, to 18,110. The S&P 500 opened up 2.14 points, or 0.10%, to

2,100.74, with health care leading gains and energy the greatest of three lagging sectors. The

Nasdaq opened up 12 points, or 0.24%, to 4,977. Gold is currently trading about 0.1% higher,

crude oil is seen trading about 0.6% lower, and the U.S. dollar is currently trading about 0.4%

higher at 9:00am Chicago time.

Oryza February 2015 Rice Market Review

Mar 05, 2015


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The Oryza White Rice Index (WRI), a weighted average of global white rice export quotes,

ended the month of February at about $419 per ton, down $3 per ton from a month ago and down

$42 per ton from a year ago.

Thailand

Thailand 5% broken rice ended the month of February at about $405 per ton, unchanged from a

month ago and down about 6% from a year ago.

Thailand's Finance Ministry has estimated the total losses from 11 subsidy schemes covering 15

harvests from 2004-14 at about 700 billion baht (about $21.5 billion), according to Bloomberg.

The ministry also said that the estimated losses exclude 425,000 tons of rice, the quality of which

could not be assessed by the government, and 130,000 tons that are missing. Meanwhile,

Thailand's Finance Ministry is planning to take over the debts associated with the rice pledging

scheme introduced by the Yingluck-led government from the Bank of Agriculture and

Agricultural Cooperatives (BAAC) in order to allow it to take up more expansion activities.

Thailand' Commerce Ministry is planning to auction one million tons of rice from the

government stockpiles on March 5. Meanwhile, the Honorary President of the Thai Rice

Exporters Association (TREA) expects that this auction is likely to receive a poor response amid

greater supply and price competition. Separately, the government has reportedly approved the

sale of about 496,243 tons of rice from the one million tons auctioned, including 850,000 tons of

5% white rice and 150,000 tons of Hom Mali rice, on January 29, 2015. The Thai government

has about 17.8 million tons of rice in its stockpiles and is planning to sell about 10 million tons

of stockpiled rice in 2015 and about 7 million tons next year. The Thai government may sell

poor-quality rice after August 2015, the Department of Foreign Trade said. Local and overseas

buyers are keen on buying deteriorating quality rice, which is apparently not suitable for human

consumption, for use in non-food sector, according to the Department.

The USDA and the FAO estimate Thailand to export about 11 million tons of rice in 2015,

slightly above 10.97 million tons exported in 2014 as the government is keen on selling about 10

million tons of rice from its stockpiles this year. Separately, TREA has expressed concern that

this year's rice exports may be hit severely if the ongoing drought intensifies in April and reduces

the off-season paddy rice output by 1-2 million tons.

In the latest report on production estimates, the Office of the Agricultural Economics (OAE) of

Thailand estimated the output from the 2014-15 secondary/off-season crop at about 6.7 million

tons (about 4.4 million tons, basis milled), down about 31% from about 9.75 million tons (about


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6.4 million tons, basis milled) last year. The OAE has estimated the country's total paddy rice

output for 2014-15 at about 33.8 million tons (about 22.3 million tons, basis milled), down about

8% from about 36.8 million tons (about 24.3 million tons, basis milled) last year. The USDA

estimates 2014-15 (January 2015 - December 2015) milled rice production to decline to about

19.7 million tons, down about 4% from about 20.46 million tons last year due to an expected

decline in off-season rice planting following drought forecasts. Meanwhile, the FAO estimates

Thailand's 2014-15 aggregate paddy rice production at about 36.106 million tons (about 23.83

million tons, basis milled), down about 2% from about 36.84 million tons (about 24.31 million

tons, basis milled) produced in 2013 due to an expected decline in output from the secondary

season (January - June).

Thailand is expected to experience worst drought in more than a decade in 2015, the Irrigation

Department Officials said. While already 8 provinces of 76 provinces are drought-struck, nearly

31 other provinces are put in high risk category. The Agriculture Ministry is estimating nearly

160,000 hectares or about 1.3% of the rice land to be affected by drought. Meanwhile, Thailand's

Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives is planning to allocate about 6.5 billion baht (about

$200 million) to support rice farmers' cooperatives to improve their business capabilities,

according to local sources.

Separately, Thailand's National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) is likely to recommend to

the Commerce and Finance Ministries to file a civil suit against the 21 state officials and

employees of private firms, including the former Commerce Minister and the former Deputy

Commerce Minister, for alleged corruption in rice export deals with two Chinese firms,

according to local sources. Thailand's former Prime Minister (PM) Yingluck Shinawatra is also

facing criminal and civil suits in the controversial rice pledging scheme introduced by her

government in October 2011, according to local sources.

Vietnam

Vietnam 5% broken rice ended the month of February at about $370 per ton, up about 3% from a


Vietnam exported about 356,012 tons of rice in January 1 - February 25, 2015, down about 44%

from about 637,756 million tons of rice exported in in first two months of 2014, according to

data from the Vietnam Food Association (VFA). Average rice export price so far in this year

stands at about $446 per ton (FOB), up about 3.7% per ton from same time last year.

Meanwhile, Vietnam is planning to stockpile one million tons of rice starting March 1 - April 15,

2015, according to a government posting on the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development


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(MARD) website. Businesses participating in the plan will receive state bank subsidized interest

rates for up to 4 months from the date of temporary storage until July 1, 2015.

Separately, Vietnam's state-owned Vinafood 2 (Southern Food Corporation) has decided to make

changes to its rice purchasing pattern for export. The company will, under the new pattern, buy

paddy directly from farmers and process it for export instead of buying processed rice from

merchants and millers, according to local sources. Some suggested that Vinafood 2 could enter

into agreements with local enterprises and outsource some production and processing operations

so that it could save time as well as costs.

The VFA has cut the floor price (minimum export price) of the lower quality 25% broken rice to

about $350 per ton, down about 3% from about $360 per ton due to increasing supplies from the

ongoing harvest and subdued demand for Vietnamese rice.

India

India 5% broken rice ended the month of February at about $395 per ton, down about 1% from a


Average monthly wholesale rice prices in India declined to about Rs.2,709.78 per quintal (about

$438 per ton) in February 2015, down about 4% from about Rs.2,836 per quintal (about $461 per

ton) in January 2015, and down about 2% from their year-ago levels of about Rs.2,761.2 per

quintal (about $445 per ton). Meanwhile, the government of India said it would not consider the

recommendations of the National Commission on Farmers (NCF) to increase the minimum

support price (MSP) on rice and wheat to at least 50% more than the weighted average cost of

production, according to local sources.

The government of India is estimating 2014-15 (April 2014 - March 2015) rice exports,

including basmati and non-basmati, at about 10.1 million tons, down about 7% from about 10.9

million tons exported in 2013-14, according to local sources. Decline in total rice exports is

mainly attributed to lower basmati rice exports. Meanwhile, the FAO has forecasted India's 2015

rice exports to decline about 20% to about 8.8 million tons from about 10.9 million tons exported

in 2014 due to an estimated lower harvest from the 2014 Kharif rice crop (June - December) as

well as a reduction in demand from its main basmati rice importer Iran, which temporarily

banned rice imports citing excess stocks as a reason. The USDA has estimated India's MY 2014-

15 (October - September) rice exports at about 9 million tons (about 5.8 million tons of basmati

and 3.2 million tons of non-basmati), down about 13% from an estimated 10.3 million tons last

year due to anticipated decline in supplies from low production and competition from other rice

exporting countries. The agency reports that the Government of India is unlikely to impose any


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export restrictions as feared earlier (due to late arrival of monsoons and consequent reduction in

production) due to high domestic supplies.

Separately, India’s rice exporters are expecting 2015 rice exports to decline by about 20% to

about 8 million tons (about 5 million tons of non-basmati and about 3 million tons of basmati)

from about 10 million tons in 2014 due to competition from cheaper supplies from Thailand,

which is planning to sell about 10 million tons of rice this year from its stockpiles. India's

basmati rice exports in the fiscal year 2014-15 (April - March) are likely to decline by about 10%

to about 3.2 million tons from about 3.57 million tons exported in FY 2013-14, local sources

quoted the Executive Director (ED) of the All India Rice Exporters Association (AIREA).

The government of India, in its second advance estimates for major crops, has estimated India's

rice production for 2014-15 marketing year (October 2014 - September 2015) at about 103.04

million tons, down about 3% from an estimated 106.65 million tons in 2013-14, according to a

statement from the agriculture Ministry. The decline can be attributed to late arrival of monsoons

in June 2014 delaying the kharif main rice crop planting process in many key rice growing areas.

The FAO estimates the total paddy rice production for 2014-15 (including that from Kharif and

ongoing Rabi seasons) at about 154.6 million tons (about 103.6 million tons, basis milled), down

about 3% from last year's record output of about 160 million tons (about 102 million tons, basis

milled). Meanwhile, the USDA estimates MY 2014-15 rice production at about 102 million tons

(about 89.5 million tons from kharif and 13 million tons from rabi), down about from an

estimated 106.6 million tons in 2013-14, based on lower yields of kharif (June - December) and

less acreage if rabi (November - March).

The Food Corporation of India (FCI), the nodal agency for food grain procurement and

distribution has procured about 20.744 million tons of rice as of February 16, 2015 in KMS

2014-15 (October 2014 - September 2015), according to data by the Ministry of Consumer

Affairs, Food & Public Distribution. The government of India also fixed rice procurement target

for KMS 2014-15 at about 35.109 million tons rice, which include 30.050 million tons of kharif

crop (main crop) and about 5.059 million tons rice for rabi crop (second crop). Separately, the

government of India has also decided to end the levy rice procurement system starting from the

2015-16 (October - September) marketing season to ensure better prices to farmers, local sources

quoted a communication from the Food Ministry as saying. Under the levy rice procurement

system, millers purchase paddy from farmers at minimum purchase price (MSP) and the state

governments in turn procure milled rice from millers to meet their public distribution needs.

The Indian government has decided to sell about 2-3 million tons of excess rice stocks under the

Open Market Sale Scheme (OMSS) to bulk buyers and traders through e-auctions, according to

local sources. India’s rice stocks in the central pool as of February 1, 2015 stood at about 24.88


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million tons (including a milled equivalent of about 17.43 million tons of paddy), down about

20% from about 31.27 million tons recorded during the same period last year, according to data

from the FCI.

Pakistan

Pakistan 5% broken rice ended the month of February at about $340 per ton, down about 6%

from a month ago and down about 15% from a year ago.

Pakistan exported about 419,153 tons of rice in January 2015, down about 14.5% from about

490,371 tons exported in December 2014, according to provisional data from the Pakistan

Bureau of Statistics (PBS). Separately, the National Space Agency of Pakistan (SUPARCO) has

estimated Pakistan FY 2014-15 (July - June) paddy rice production to decline about 19% to

about 8.437 million tons (about 5.65 million tons, basis milled) from about 10.04 million tons

(about 6.72 million tons, basis milled) produced last year.

Pakistan's rice exporters have also urged the government to negotiate with the Malaysian

government to remove quota restrictions placed on rice imports from Pakistan, according to local

sources.

Cambodia

Cambodia 5% broken rice ended the month of February at about $435 per ton, down about 2%

from a month ago and down about 4% from a year ago.

Cambodia exported about 35,921 tons of rice in January 2015, up about 66.8% from about

21,536 tons rice exported in the same period last year, according to data from the Cambodia Rice

Federation (CRF). Cambodia exported about 387,061 tons of rice in calendar year 2014, up

about 2% from about 379,856 tons exported in 2013. Separate Cambodia's Commerce Minister

said that Cambodia may not reach one million tons export target in 2015due to lack of sufficient

milling capacity and funding. The Minister also noted that Cambodia produces about 9 million

tons of paddy rice (about 5.8 million tons, basis milled) yearly and after catering to domestic

consumption, about 3 million tons of rice is left for exports.

Cambodia's state-owned Center for Study and Development in Agriculture (CEDAC) is targeting

to nearly double its fragrant organic rice exports to about 1,000 tons in 2015 from about 540 tons

exported in 2014 expecting an increasing demand, according to local sources.


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The Cambodia Rice Federation (CRF) is also planning to approach the government, banks and

financial institutions within the country as well as explore overseas means to raise the requisite

$777,000 towards the rice sector development fund, according to local sources.

South America

Brazil 5% broken rice ended the month of February at about $550 per ton, up about 2% from a


Brazil has exported about 69,913 tons of rice in the first month of 2015, according to data

released by the Rice Institute of Rio Grande do Sul (IRGA). Cuba remained the largest importer

of Brazilian rice in January 2015 with about 36,967 tons, or about 53% of Brazil's total rice

exports during the month. Brazil exported about 1.24 million tons of rice in 2014, up about 2.4%

from about 1.209 million tons exported in 2013, according to data from IRGA.

Argentina has exported about 499,007 tons of rice in the first eleven months (January –

November) of 2014, down about 1.25% from about 492,807 tons exported during the same

period in 2013, according to data from the Ministry of Agriculture in Argentina.

The Guyana government is targeting to export about 521,000 tons of rice in 2015, up about 4%

from an estimated 501,208 tons exported in 2014, the Agriculture Minister said. The Minister

also told local sources that Guyana currently has export agreements with Venezuela, Panama and

several other Caribbean countries, and the government is pursuing sales agreements with

Nicaragua and other Central American countries such as Belize. The government has set the

2015 milled rice production target at about 618,000 tons, about 3% below an estimated 635,238

tons produced in 2014, according to the Agriculture Minister.

The USDA estimates Venezuela's MY 2014-15 paddy rice production at about 380,000 tons,

down about 1.2% from about 385,000 tons produced last year due to severe drought conditions

during the first crop season. The agency also reports that world oil price falls have led to a

significant reduction in Venezuela's foreign exchange reserves and consequently less dollar

availability. This situation is expected to impact rice and other commodities importers.

U.S.

U.S. 4% broken rice ended the month of February at about $480 per ton, down about 4% from a

month ago and down about 17% from a year ago. CBOT rough rice future ended the month of

February at about $10.745 per cwt (about $237 per ton), 1.7% from a month ago and down about

31% from a year ago.


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The USDA has forecasted U.S. MY 2014-15 all rice imports at about 1.04 million tons,

unchanged from last year. The USDA kept its estimates for U.S. all rice exports unchanged as it

is estimating increase in long-grain exports to offset decline in combined medium and short grain

exports. The USDA raised its estimates for U.S. MY 2014-15 all rice ending stocks by about 2%

to about 1.9 million tons from its last month's estimates of about 1.86 million tons. It estimates

U.S. all rice ending stocks to increase about 28% y/y in MY 2014-15.

Meanwhile, U.S. farmers are likely to cut down acreage of eight important crops, including rice,

wheat, corn, soybeans and cotton, in 2015-16 (August - July) due to declining crop prices and

profit margins, the USDA's Acting Chief Economist said. The USDA official estimated that the

U.S. rice acreage would decline about 1.3% to about 1.16 million hectares in 2015-16 from an

estimated 1.176 million hectares in 2014-15.

In early February, California rice sector was hit by the U.S. West Coast ports Closures. Nearly

80% of the rice grown in California is medium-grain rice and is exported through the port of

West Sacramento and Oakland port to the countries in the south Pacific. But strikes and closures

by the dock workers and terminal operators due to some issues over contract terms have been

delaying the shipment of rice to destination countries causing severe losses to the exporters.

However in late February, problems between dock workers and terminal operators in the U.S.

West Coast ports seems to be over with the signing of a new contract signed by the dockworkers'

union and the terminal operators at 29 West Coast ports, including the Port of Oakland.

Separately, rice producers in the U.S. Missouri state have reportedly secured permission from the

U.S. Department of Commerce (USDC) to ship one container of sample rice to Cuba after the

50-year long trade embargo with the Caribbean nation had been lifted, according to local

sources.

Africa

Nigeria's milled rice production reached about 2.9 million tons in 2014, up about 52% from

about 1.9 million tons produced in 2013, the country's Agriculture Minister said. He also noted

that a number of private investors willing to invest in the country's rice sector. Already some of

the investors have invested in rice mills at strategic locations to promote production and milling

activities in captive areas. The Minister stated that if the 2014 output is added to the existing

stock, the country would need to import about 1.9 to 2 million tons of rice this year to meet a

consumption demand of about 6 million tons. The government initially planned achieves rice

self-sufficiency and ban rice imports from 2015.

The FAO said Madagascar's paddy rice production has increased about 10% to about 4 million

tons in 2014 from about 3.6 million tons in 2013 despite uneven rains in the south and impact of


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locusts. The agency reports that prospects for 2015 rice production are mixed because of heavy

rains in western, central and eastern parts due to cyclone Chedza on one hand and dry conditions

in the southern regions on the other. Harvesting of 2015 main rice crop (October - June) will

begin in April and may extend till June.

The government of Ghana has received a grant of about $145 million - $100 million from World

Bank and $45 million from the United States Agency for International Development - for the

development and commercialization of the country's rice sector, according to local sources.

Separately, About 120,000 small scale rice farmers, millers and rural service providers from

Nigeria, Burkina Faso, Ghana and Tanzania will receive support under the Competitive African

Rice Initiative (CARI) initiative, according to local sources.

Myanmar

The Myanmar Rice Federation (MRF) has signed a contract with the China's state run China

National Cereals, Oils and Foodstuffs Corporation (COFCO) to export 100,000 tons of rice to

China in separate monthly shipments in accordance with market prices at the time of shipment,

local sources said. Meanwhile, the Myanmar Rice Miller Company (MRMC), a part of the

Myanmar Rice Millers Association (MRMA), has also signed an agreement with China CAMC

Engineering Company Limited (CAMCE) to construct modern and advanced rice mills in the

country, according to local sources. According to the agreement, both the sides have agreed to

build two 200-ton rice mills in Myanmar by 2017

China

China has imported about 2.56 million tons of rice in 2014 (January - December), up about 13%

from about 2.267 million tons imported in 2013, according to data from China Customs General

Administration.

The Chinese government has decided to continue the state stockpiling policy for rice in 2015 but

will retain the minimum rice purchase prices (MRPP) at last year's level, the National

Development and Reform Commission said. The MRPP for early indica rice reserve purchases

will continue at 135 yuan per 50 kilograms (about $432 per ton), MRPP for middle and late-

season indica rice as well as for japonica rice will be retained at 138 yuan per 50 kilograms

(about $442 per ton) and 155 yuan per 50 kilograms (about $496 per ton), respectively.

Philippines


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Average domestic rice prices in the Philippines increased sharply in 2014, according to data from

the Philippines Bureau of Agricultural Statistics (BAS), despite importing about 1.8 million tons

of rice during the year (including 1.5 million tons of 2014 imports and 300,000 tons of 2013

residual imports) to replenish rice stocks and control price hikes.

The National Food Authority (NFA) of the Philippines has decided to import 500,000 tons of

well-milled long grain white rice through government-to-government (G2G) deals to boost

buffer stocks ahead of the lean season (June - August). Meanwhile, the government of the

Philippines accepted bids from Thailand and Vietnam for the import of 500,000 tons as the

prices offered by both the nations were lower than the price of $434 per ton specified by the

NFA. The Philippine government allotted about $217.2 million for total 500,000 tons import.

Separately, the NFA Presidential Assistant for Food Security and Agricultural Modernization is

encouraging farmers to sell their paddy output to the agency. The NFA has fixed the paddy

procurement price at about P17 per kilogram (about $384 per ton) but has decided to provide

other incentives to farmers taking the total price to about P17.7 per kilogram (about $399 per

ton). Recently, farmers are reportedly getting attracted to selling their output to private traders

who have been offering about P18.9 per kilogram (about $426 per ton).

The Philippines Department of Agriculture (DA) is also encouraging farmers to test elite rice

varieties through multi-environment trials (MET) to evaluate their performance in various

cropping conditions, according to local sources. The DA is also planning to increase hybrid rice

acreage in the country in order to achieve self-sufficiency in rice production, according to local

sources. The DA is aiming to plant hybrid rice in about 72,563 hectares by 2014-15 dry season

and to more than double the hybrid rice acreage to about 147,626 hectares by 2015-16 dry

season.

Total rice stocks in the Philippines as of January 1, 2015 reached about 2.66 million tons, down

about 12% from about 3.03 million tons recorded in December 2014, and up about 25% from

about 2.13 million tons recorded during the same period last year, according to the BAS. The

rice stocks as of January 1, 2015 are enough to last for 78 days (household stocks are enough for

39 days, commercial warehouses stocks are enough for 24 days and stocks with NFA are enough

for 15 days).

Europe

The European Union (EU) has imported about 442,433 tons of milled rice from non-EU nations

in September 1, 2014 - February 17, 2015, up about 2% from about 433,770 tons imported

during the same period last year.


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Italy's National Antitrust Agency, which is responsible for market liberalization in the country,

has urged the Ente Nazionale Risi (ENR), the National Agency for Rice, to formulate common

paddy pricing rules as the current paddy pricing system does not provide balanced pricing

acceptable to both farmers and millers, according to local sources. Separately, Certified paddy

rice usage has been declining over the last four years and Assosementi, the association of Italian

seeding companies, has expressed concern that the trend does not imply promising future for the

Italian rice sector. According to Assosementi, certified paddy seeds acreage in Italy has declined

about 30% from about 13,700 hectares (5.6% of total paddy acreage) in 2011 to about 9,700

hectares (4.4% of total paddy acreage) in 2014.

Other Markets

Indonesia may not import rice immediately despite rising domestic prices, as the existing stocks

and the output from upcoming harvest in March and April would be sufficient to control price

hikes, the country's Trade Minister said. Meanwhile, Indonesia's State Logistics Agency Bulog

has decided to release about 400,000 tons of rice into the market to control price hikes. In late

February, the Indonesian President Joko Widodo has formally begun the operations for

distributing Bulog rice in the market in line with the government's decision to control price

hikes. The Indonesia's Agriculture Ministry is expecting the harvest from the ongoing crop

season at about 13.2 million tons, basis paddy. Indonesia's 2015 paddy rice production is

expected to reach about 71.28 million tons, up about 0.95% from about 70.6 million tons

produced in 2014.The Indonesian Agency for Agricultural Research and Development (IAARD)

has collaborated with the IRRI) as part of its efforts to boost rice production and achieve self-

sufficiency over the next four years, according to local sources.

The USDA has estimated Bangladesh to import about 700,000 tons of rice in MY 2014-15 (May

- April), down about 7% from an estimated 751,000 tons imported in MY 2013-14, and up about

40% from USDA's official estimates of about 500,000 tons based on the current import pace.

Imports in 2013-14 (mostly by private sector) are said to have increased due to competitive

Indian as well as global rice prices. The agency has estimated Bangladesh's 2014-15 milled rice

production at about 34.5 million tons, slightly up from an estimated 34.39, and slightly down

from USDA's official estimates of about 34.6 million tons. The government has planned to

procure about 1.4 million tons of paddy and 200,000 tons of milled rice in 2014-15.

Nepal has imported about 97,098 tons of rice from India through the Belhiya (Bhairahawa)

transit point in the first six months of the current fiscal year 2014-15 (August 2014 - July 2015),

up about 42% from about 68,397 tons imported during the same period in FY 2013-14 according

to the Customs officials.


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The government of Turkey has announced on December 9, 2014 that it would reduced the value

added tax (VAT) on milled rice to 1% from the existing 8% and make it equal with the VAT on

paddy rice, according to the USDA. However, the Post reports that the government has so far not

announced the effective date. Turkey produces only 60% of total annual consumption and

imports the rest. The USDA has estimated Turkey's rice imports at about 300,000 tons in MY

2014-15 (September - August), down about 12% from an estimated 341,000 tons imported in the

previous year. According to data from the Turkish Grain Board (TMO), Turkey imported about

413,932 tons of rice in MY 2013-14. The U.S. was the top exporter to Turkey with about

172,872 tons followed by India with 67,338 tons.

Australia's paddy rice production in MY 2014-15 (April 2014 - March 2015) is estimated to

decline to about 684,000 tons (about 492,000, basis milled), down about 18% from an estimated

833,000 million tons (about 600,000 tons, basis milled) in MY 2013-14, according to data from

the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences.

The USDA estimates Malaysia's milled rice production to increase slightly to about 1.81 million

tons in MY 2015-16 from an estimated 1.8 million tons in MY 2014-15 due to expected increase

in rice planting area, better irrigation system and the use of high yielding paddy varieties. The

USDA estimates domestic consumption to increase slightly to about 2.82 million tons in 2015-16

from an estimated 2.8 million tons in 2014-15 due to an increase in immigrant labor population.

The FAO has estimated North Korea's 2015 paddy production to decline about 9% to about

2.62 million tons from about 2.9 million tons in 2014 due to a 4% decline in plantings and

expected lower yields. Separately, the government of South Korea has announced that it will take

requisite measures to increase rice exports as the country is likely to experience oversupply of

rice this year from its own production and mandatory imports under WTO regulations, according

to local sources.

Research and Scientific Development:

The regional rice seed cooperation agreement between India, Bangladesh and Nepal, launched by

the Philippines-based International Institute of Rice Research (IRRI) is speeding up the release

of rice varieties in these countries.

http://oryza.com/irris-regional-seed-cooperation-agreement-speeds-release-rice-varieties-india-

nepal-and-bangladesh

Natural farming is the latest technique used by the rice farmers of India's North-western State

Punjab to increase yields at minimal input costs as well as earn better incomes.

http://oryza.com/irris-regional-seed-cooperation-agreement-speeds-release-rice-varieties-india-nepal-and-bangladesh

http://oryza.com/irris-regional-seed-cooperation-agreement-speeds-release-rice-varieties-india-nepal-and-bangladesh


16

http://oryza.com/natural-farming-techniques-can-increase-rice-yields-minimal-costs

Rice husk mixed with annelids (segmented worms) can be transformed into organic humus that

can used as fertilizer in cultivation of rice and many other crops.

http://oryza.com/rice-husk-annelids-can-do-wonders

Guyana has released two new hybrid rice varieties - GRDB 14 and Maria's Delight aromatic rice.

http://oryza.com/guyana-releases-two-new-hybrid-rice-varieties

A report published in the International Journal of Agriculture shows the results of a study on

"competitive ability of rice varieties against weeds under aerobic rice production in Malaysia".

http://oryza.com/study-identifies-ecologically-safe-and-sustainable-weed-management-strategy-

under-aerobic-rice

Bio fuel made from sugar molasses and sweet sorghum can serve as a good source of energy to

run rice farming machinery such as threshers, dryers as well as small rice mills, according to a

notice on the Philippines government website.

http://oryza.com/21932/philippines-embarks-green-rice-mechanization

Indonesia's National Atomic Energy Agency (BATAN) has developed two varieties of rice

seedlings, which can withstand pests and yield about 10.5 tons per hectare, using nuclear

technology.

http://oryza.com/indonesia-develops-superior-rice-seedlings-using-nuclear-technology

February Tenders:

Japan is seeking to purchase about 50,856 tons of rice in ordinary tender.

http://oryza.com/japan-seeks-purchase-50856-tons-rice-tender

Japan is seeking to import about 50,000 tons of rice in 12th ordinary import tender for FY 2014

(April 2014 - March 2015).

http://oryza.com/japan-seeks-import-50000-tons-rice-tender

http://oryza.com/natural-farming-techniques-can-increase-rice-yields-minimal-costs

http://oryza.com/rice-husk-annelids-can-do-wonders

http://oryza.com/guyana-releases-two-new-hybrid-rice-varieties

http://oryza.com/study-identifies-ecologically-safe-and-sustainable-weed-management-strategy-under-aerobic-rice

http://oryza.com/study-identifies-ecologically-safe-and-sustainable-weed-management-strategy-under-aerobic-rice

http://oryza.com/21932/philippines-embarks-green-rice-mechanization

http://oryza.com/indonesia-develops-superior-rice-seedlings-using-nuclear-technology

http://oryza.com/japan-seeks-purchase-50856-tons-rice-tender

http://oryza.com/japan-seeks-import-50000-tons-rice-tender


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Japan has bought and sold a total of about 412 tons of whole grain/brown rice of the U.S.,

Australia and Thailand origins; and about 640 tons of broken rice of the U.S. and Thailand

origins, in the seventh SBS (Simultaneous Buy-Sell) tender of FY 2014.

http://oryza.com/japan-buys-and-sells-412-tons-whole-grain-rice-and-640-tons-broken-rice-7th-

sbs-tender-fy-2014

South Korea issued a tender to buy about 44,000 tons rice.

http://oryza.com/south-korea-seeks-buy-44000-tons-non-glutinous-rice-tender

South Korea has purchased 35,000 tons of non-glutinous rice for delivery between April and

June in a tender.

http://oryza.com/south-korea-buys-35000-tons-rice-international-tender-passes-tender-5000-tons

South Korea has bought 44,000 tons of brown rice of the U.S. and Chinese origins for delivery

by May 31, 2015.

http://oryza.com/21935/south-korea-buys-44000-tons-rice-us-and-china-tender

Mauritius' issued a tender to buy about 6,000 tons rice.

http://oryza.com/mauritius-tenders-buy-6000-tons-long-grain-white-rice

Oryza U.S. Rough Rice Recap - Unchanged

Prices as Market Enthusiasm Fades

Mar 05, 2015

The U.S. cash market was unchanged today with neither buyers or sellers showing any

enthusiasm in trading at these levels.

Analysts note that most buyers see it difficult for prices to firm given the pace of exports while

sellers believe that the U.S. will remain competitive given the U.S. price relative to South

American prices.

http://oryza.com/japan-buys-and-sells-412-tons-whole-grain-rice-and-640-tons-broken-rice-7th-sbs-tender-fy-2014

http://oryza.com/japan-buys-and-sells-412-tons-whole-grain-rice-and-640-tons-broken-rice-7th-sbs-tender-fy-2014

http://oryza.com/south-korea-seeks-buy-44000-tons-non-glutinous-rice-tender

http://oryza.com/south-korea-buys-35000-tons-rice-international-tender-passes-tender-5000-tons

http://oryza.com/21935/south-korea-buys-44000-tons-rice-us-and-china-tender

http://oryza.com/mauritius-tenders-buy-6000-tons-long-grain-white-rice


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In the meantime, the USDA reported that cumulative net export sales for the week ending on

February 26, totaled 69,300 tons, which was 27% lower than last week and the prior 4-week

average.

Increases were reported for the following destinations: 15,000 tons to Colombia, 12,000 tons to

Japan, 8,600 tons to Mexico, 8,600 tons to Saudi Arabia, 7,000 tons to Ghana, and 6,800 tons to

Guatemala, including 5,500 tons switched from unknown destinations and 1,000 tons switched

from El Salvador.

U.S. rice exporters shipped 33,400 tons, which was 64% lower than last week and 32% lower

than the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations included 9,200 tons to Saudi Arabia,

8,500 tons to Guatemala, 5,400 tons to El Salvador, 2,800 tons to Jordan, and 2,500 tons to

Mexico.

Oryza Global Weather Outlook

Mar 05, 2015

Rain is expected across the southern Yangtze Valley, and central and eastern South China this

week. Rice planting for early double crop is expected to begin in next few weeks in South China.

Rain is expected across southern India and north-western India this week, which should improve

moisture there for late growth of rabi rice.

Rain is expected across central and northern Pakistan this week.

Light rain is expected across southern Bangladesh this week.

In Indonesia, rain is expected across western Malay Peninsula, Sumatra, Kaliman-tan, East

Malaysia, Sulawesi, and Java this week. Active rains in Kalimantan, central East Malaysia, Java,

and southern Sulawesi could slow early harvesting of the main crop.

Rain showers are expected across northern Vietnam this week. Dryness will continue to increase

across central and southern Vietnam, which will increase stress on rice growth.

Isolated rain showers are expected in southern Thailand this week.

A few showers are expected in south-eastern Philippines this week.


19

Rain is expected across the centre-south and north-east Brazil this week, which could slow the

harvesting there.

A few showers are expected in east central Uruguay and northern Argentina rice areas this

week.

In the U.S., rain is expected in the southern Delta and Coastal Bend this week. Rice planting is

expecting to begin in April.

Long-Awaited El Niño May Not Benefit

California, Say Meteorologists

Mar 05, 2015

Meteorologists from the National Weather Service noted that the long-awaited El Niño is now in

place but is very weak that many places are not feeling its effects.Usually, moderate to strong El

Niño patterns help subside south-western droughts in the U.S. They typically bring more winter

rain and snow to California. The Deputy Director of the weather service’s Climate Prediction

Center noted that the 1998 El Niño, which was considered to be a strong one, even caused

flooding and mudslides.

However, this time the pattern has arrived at the end of California's rainy season and it is weak,

he said. So, it has not brought any respite to California agriculturalists who have been suffering

from drought. Especially California rice growers cut this year’s rice acreage by about 25% to

around 420,000 hectares in 2014 from around 525,000 hectares in 2013.The Deputy Director

noted that the U.S. south-east may receive some rains.

Global Rice Quotes

March 5th, 2015

Long grain white rice - high quality

Thailand 100% B grade 415-425 ↔

Vietnam 5% broken 370-380 ↔

India 5% broken 390-400 ↔

Pakistan 5% broken 345-355 ↔

Myanmar 5% broken 410-420 ↔


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Cambodia 5% broken 425-435 ↔

U.S. 4% broken 480-490 ↔

Uruguay 5% broken NQ ↔

Argentina 5% broken NQ ↔

Long grain white rice - low quality

Thailand 25% broken 365-375 ↔


Pakistan 25% broken 305-315 ↔

Cambodia 25% broken 410-420 ↔

India 25% broken 355-365 ↔

U.S. 15% broken 470-480 ↔

Long grain parboiled rice

Thailand parboiled 100% stxd 400-410 ↔

Pakistan parboiled 5% broken stxd 390-400 ↔

India parboiled 5% broken stxd 385-395 ↔

U.S. parboiled 4% broken 555-565 ↔

Brazil parboiled 5% broken 570-580 ↔

Uruguay parboiled 5% broken NQ ↔

Long grain fragrant rice

Thailand Hommali 92% 920-930 ↔

Vietnam Jasmine 455-465 ↔

India basmati 2% broken NQ ↔

Pakistan basmati 2% broken NQ ↔

Cambodia Phka Mails 785-795 ↔

Brokens

Thailand A1 Super 320-330 ↔


Pakistan 100% broken stxd 290-300 ↔

Cambodia A1 Super 345-355 ↔

India 100% broken stxd 280-290 ↔

Egypt medium grain brokens NQ ↔

U.S. pet food 380-390 ↔

Brazil half grain NQ ↔

All prices USD per ton, FOB vessel, oryza.com


21

India 2014-15 Rabi Rice Planting Reaches 3.2

Million Hectares as of March 5, 2015; Down

14% from Last Year

Mar 05, 2015

Planting for India 2014-15 rabi (secondary) rice crop (November - May) has reached around 3.2

million hectares as of March 5, 2015; down about 14% from around 3.72 million hectares

planted during the same period last year, local quoted preliminary data on sowing released by

respective states.

The decline is due to untimely rains in some part of the rabi rice growing areas.The government

of India, in its second advance estimates for major crops, has estimated India's rice production

for 2014-15 marketing year (October 2014 - September 2015) at around 103.04 million tons,


22

down about 3% from an estimated 106.65 million tons in 2013-14, according to a statement from

the agriculture Ministry. It estimates around 88.02 million tons from kharif rice crop and around

15.02 million tons for rabi rice crop.

FAO Forecasts 2014-15 Global Rice

Production at 495.9 Million Tons; Slightly

Down from Last Year

Mar 05, 2015

Oryza.com -

The UN's FAO has forecasted 2014-15 global rice production at around 495.9 million tons,

slightly down from around 496.9 million tons in 2013-14 and slightly down from its last month's

forecast of around 496.2 million tons.

According to the FAO, the 2014 paddy output had declined in Asian countries such as India,

Indonesia, Sri Lanka and Thailand due to erratic weather conditions but had been slightly

compensated by increases in Bangladesh, China, Myanmar, Vietnam and the Philippines. On the

whole, the region witnessed a 0.5% in rice production. Australia witnessed a 28% fall in 2014


23

rice output due to water shortages. African rice production fell by 2% in 2014. Strong recovery

in Madagascar and the United Republic of Tanzania compensated for fall in output in most of the

west African nations. The Latin America and the Caribbean region also witnessed a slight

improvement in rice production due to gains in Brazil, Guyana and Paraguay. In Europe, strong

rebound of production in Russia compensated for a contraction in the EU. In North America, the

U.S. rice production increased by about 16% in 2014 compared to that in 2013.

In 2015, the FAO expects reasonably good output from Indonesia and Sri Lanka in Asia backed

by government measures and reconstitution of water reserves respectively. It forecasts modest

increases in Madagascar and Mozambique in Africa amid reports of erratic weather conditions.

In South America, while excessive rains have lowered production prospects in Brazil,

unfavourable climatic conditions or water shortages are expected to affect production in

Argentina, Uruguay and Peru. However, according to the FAO, production prospects are positive

for Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana and Paraguay, in some cases supported by high prices.

Australian production is expected to decline due to lack of irrigation water and a return to

normal yields (from last year's exceptionally high yields).

The FAO estimates 2014-15 global rice utilization at around 500 million tons, up about 1.7%

from an estimated 491.5 million tons in 2013-14, and slightly down from last month's estimates

of around 500.1 million tons. Around 416 million tons are anticipated to be consumed as food in

2014-15, up about 1.5% from 2013-14 due a slight increase in the annual per capita consumption

to around 57.6 kilograms from last year's 57.3 kilograms.

The FAO estimates 2014-15 global rice stocks at around 176.2 million tons, down about 2%

from around 180 million tons last year and slightly down from last month's forecast of around

177.6 million tons due to ongoing efforts by the Thai government to curtail the size of its public

rice stockpile through continuous tenders.

The FAO estimates 2014-15 global rice trade at around 41.4 million tons, down about 1.4%

from around 42 million tons last year and up about 1% from last month's forecast of around 41

million tons.

FAO Global Rice Price Index Declines for

Sixth Consecutive Month

Mar 05, 2015


24

The FAO All Rice Price Index declined to around 220 points in February 2015, down about 1%

from around 222 points in January 2015 due to a decline in the Higher and Lower Quality Indica

as well as Japonica sub-indices. The FAO index has been declining continuously since

September 2014. It declined about 8% during the 6-month period.In February 2015, the Higher

Quality sub-index registered the highest decline of about 2.6% or 5 points to around 189 points

this month from around 194 points last month. Lower Quality Indica sub-index declined by

about 3 points, or about 1.6% to around 186 points in February 2015, from around 189 points last

month. Japonica sub-index declined by about 3 points, or about 1% to around 276 points this

month from around 279 points last month. However, the Aromatic sub-index increased about

3.7% to around 196 points in February 2015 from around 189 points last month.

In January - February 2015, the FAO All Rice Price Index averaged 221 points, down about

4.7% from around 232 points during the same period last year. Sub-index for higher quality

Indica rice prices declined about 9.6% y/y and sub-index for lower quality Indica rice prices

declined about 5.1% y/y. Aromatic rice price sub-index declined about 26.8% y/y. However,


25

sub-index for Japonica rice prices increased about 10.4% y/y due to likely lower supplies in

Australia, the U.S. (California) and Egypt.

According to the FAO, rice export prices in the Asian origins such as Vietnam and Pakistan

softened in February 2015 due to increased supplies from new harvest and subdued export

demand. However, Thai rice export prices remained relatively stable or increased during the

month as prospects of a much smaller 2014-15 secondary paddy crop outweighed the effects of

large public stocks, says the FAO. Rice export prices in India firmed up due to a revival of

demand in Africa as well as a stronger rupee. Export prices of U.S. origin as well as other

American origins also declined due to increasing supplies from new harvests.

During February 2015, average rice export prices of Thai 100% broken rice, Thai parboiled rice,

Thai A1 Super and Thai fragrant rice increased to around $430 per ton, $430 per ton, $331 per

ton and $1,083 per ton respectively; Prices of Thai 5% broken rice and Thai 25% broken rice

remained unchanged at last month's levels of around $420 per ton and around $400 per ton

respectively.

Export prices of Vietnam and Pakistan 25% broken rice declined about 4.3% m/m and 3% m/m

to around $334 per ton and $316 per ton respectively. Export prices of India 25% broken rice

increased slightly m/m to around $350 per ton; and export prices of the U.S. and Uruguay rice

declined about 1% m/m and slightly m/m to around $503 per ton and around $593 per ton

respectively.

Oryza Afternoon Recap - Chicago Rough

Rice Futures Retrace Yesterday's Gains as

Market Remains Trapped Sideways as

Physical Trade Stays Subdued

Mar 05, 2015

Chicago rough rice futures for May delivery settled 13 cents per cwt (about $3 per ton) lower at

$10.595 per cwt (about $234 per ton). The other grains closed mostly lower, once again led by a

sharp decline in wheat; Soybeans closed about 0.9% lower at $9.8550 per bushel; wheat finished

about 3.1% lower at $4.8050 per bushel, and corn finished the day about 0.3% higher at $3.9050

per bushel.U.S. stocks traded in a narrow range on Thursday, paring gains after an initial boost

from details on quantitative easing in the euro zone, ahead of Friday's jobs report. The S&P

struggled to stay in positive territory, while the Dow and Nasdaq held modest gains.


26

U.S. stocks have ended lower for each of the last two days, pulling back from Monday's records

that sent the Nasdaq above 5,000 in the close for the first time since March 2000. The European

Central Bank will start its 1 trillion euro ($1.1 trillion) bond-buying program on Monday, March

9, with expectations to end in September 2016, President Mario Draghi said during a press

conference on Thursday. He also raised regional growth forecasts for 2015 and 2016 to 1.5% and

1.9%, respectively. European equities closed higher on the news, and U.S. stocks initially traded

higher. U.S. monthly jobless claims rose 7,000 to a seasonally adjusted 320,000 for the week

ended Feb. 28, above estimates.

Other data reports came in slightly negative, mostly due to seasonal factors, analysts said. The

Dow Jones Industrial Average traded up 4 points, or 0.02%, to 18,100. The S&P 500 traded

down 1 point, or 0.06%, to 2,097, with utilities leading gains and materials the greatest of five

declining sectors. The Nasdaq traded up 0.45 points, or 0.01%, to 4,967. Gold is trading about

0.4% lower, crude oil is seen trading about 1.4% lower, and the U.S. dollar is seen trading about

0.5% higher at about 1:00pm Chicago time.Wednesday, there were 517 contracts traded, down

from 799 contracts traded on Tuesday. Open interest – the number of contracts outstanding – on

Wednesday decreased by 24 contracts to 9,068.

Thailand Receives 45 Bids for March 6

Auction, Says Foreign Trade Department

Mar 05, 2015

Thailand has received 45 bids for the one million tons of

rice it is planning to auction on March 6, 2015, Bloomberg

quoted the Department of Foreign Trade as saying.The

Department will announce the names of the shortlisted

bidders tomorrow before the auction.The government sold

about 500,000 tons of rice of the one million tons auctioned

on January 29, 2015. It sold 350,039 tons of 5% broken rice

with bidding price range of around 7,650-12,220 baht

(around $235-$375) per ton and around 146,205 tons of

Hommali rice with bidding price range of around 23,010-31,000 baht (around $707-$952) per

ton. The prices were supposedly close to the market prices of around 8,000-10,000 baht (around

$246-$307) per ton for white rice and around 25,000 baht (around $767) per ton for Hommali

rice.The Thai government currently holds around 17.8 million tons of rice in its stockpiles and is

keen on selling around 10 million tons of stockpiled rice in 2015 and around 7 million tons in

2016 through tenders.

6th march,2015 daily exclusive oryza rice e newsletter by riceplus magazine

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