61936632 commodity briefing commodities not king crimson 8-9-11

7/30/2019 61936632 Commodity Briefing Commodities Not King Crimson 8-9-11

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COMMODITIES RESEARCH 9 August 20

PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES STARTING AFTER PAGE 7

COMMODITY BRIEFING

Daily FocusIn the sea of red that represents asset class performance over the past few weeks, some are

glowing less crimson than others. Commodities in particular seem to be showing signs of

relative resilience. In August, commodity benchmarks are down by between 6% and 9%.

Broad equity benchmarks are down much more, eg the S&PBRIC40 is down -15%.

Performance between commodity market sectors and their equity counterparts is even

more marked. The EuroStoxx industrial metals index is down -23%, the S&PGSCI industrial

metals index by just -9.9%. The Gold bugs index is down -3.2%, S&PGSCI precious metals

index is up 5%. And it's not that commodity markets are holding up better because they

have already fallen. In July, commodity returns were positive across the board (ie, for each

sector with precious and industrial metals leading the way) and commodity benchmarks

outperformed all of the other asset classes with S&P500 and emerging market indices both

in negative territory, but commodity benchmarks gaining 2-3%. In the year to date, only one

commodity sector (precious metals +21%) is actually up, but the main benchmarks have

fallen far less than other asset classes. And the individual sectors are outperforming versus

their equity counterparts. In the past, equities have often led commodities. But there are

good reasons for further outperformance in commodity assets over the rest of the year.

One, because commodity demand is still strong. H1 has seen demand push into fresh

territory (all-time highs for global steel and copper demand, oil demand setting an all-time

high for the second quarter). Emerging markets matter most for commodities. As long as

there is a soft landing in China, the demand picture will continue to be positive. Two,

because producer cost pressures have intensified and cost floors are much higher now (eg,

oil at $95-100 because of increases in producer budgets, aluminium at $2300, because ofrising electricity costs, US natgas at $4, due to competitiveness vs coal). Resource shortages

mean that producer profits will continue to be constrained, underperformance relative to

plans and delays to new projects will remain endemic. Three, because commodity markets

are highly vulnerable to supply shocks. Inventory and spare capacity levels are thin, but the

threats to supply still great, encompassing geopolitics, deteriorating labour relations, and

bad weather. Moreover, market participants remember the dramatic recovery after

commodities overshot to the downside in early 2009 in the wake of the first financial crisis,

so prices will probably fall much less far this time before buying emerges. Four, because

there are a number of commodity markets that will actually benefit from the current turmoil

(gold and silver) or are at least insulated from short-term financial market and business

cycle fluctuations, especially livestock and agriculture.

Commodities have lost much less value than other assetsso far

Asset class benchmarks Aug to date July YTD EuroStoxx equity indices Aug to date July YTD

S&P BRIC 40 -15.0% -2% -13% Ind metals -23.0% -7% -36%

GPR Property developers -14.6% 1% -14% Oil and gas producers -13.3% 0% -13%

EM MSCI -13.7% 0% -12% Food producers -5.6% 1% -3%

S&P500 -13.0% -2% -10% Gold Bugs -3.2% 4% -7.0%

Commodity market benchmarks Commodity market sectors

S&PGSCI -9.4% 2% -5% Energy -11.9% 2% -5%

Rogers -8.2% 3% -5% Ind. Metals -9.9% 4% -10%

CRB -6.9% 1% -5% Ags -3.3% 3% -8%

DJ-UBS -5.8% 3% -6% Livestock -1.4% 3% -1%

P. Metals 4.7% 9% 21%

Change in value of different asset classes (total returns)

Source: Ecowin, Barclays Capital

FocusKevin Norrish: +44 (0)20 7773 0369

Will the relative resilience of commodities ovother asset classes continue?

Oil Amrita Sen & Miswin Mahesh

Crude oil prices continue to fall sharply as brbased risk aversion, increasing margin calls atechnical triggers play their part.Natural gas Michael Zenker & Kerri Maddo

US natural gas watched the day's marketturmoil from the sidelines; meanwhile, NBP dahead prices gain some value on a shortsystem, economic worries pull down on pric

along the curve.Base metals Nicholas Snowdon

Aluminium is the stand out performer havinfallen less than 1% yesterday and is higher tmorning against a backdrop of sharp declineacross the other metals.

Precious metals Suki Cooper

Gold prices storm through the $1700/oz maboosted by a flight to safety with ETP holdinat a new record.

Agriculture Sudakshina Unnikrishnan

Prices ease further in early trade this mornin

Near-term price direction is likely to remainchoppy driven by macro-economic uncertaiand volatile external markets.

Key commodity price changes

8 Aug chang

WTI Crude Oil (US$/bbl) 86.9 0.3%

Copper 3M (US$/t) 9041 -3.4%

Gold (US$/oz) 1664.5 1.0%

Reuters/CRB TR 327.0 -0.4%

S&P GSCITM TR 4892.3 0.1%

S&P GSCITM Energy TR1034.9 0.7%

S&P GSCITM Ind. Metals TR 1855.6 -3.6%

S&P GSCITM Prec. Metals TR 2238.6 -0.9%

S&P GSCITM Agriculture TR 779.8 -0.5%

S&P GSCITM Livestock TR 2256.4 0.2%

Source: EcoWin, Barclays Capital


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Barclays Capital | Commodity Briefing

9 August 2011 2

MARKET VIEWS AND COMMENTS

Oil

Crude oil prices continue to fall sharply as broad-based risk aversion, increasing margincalls and technical triggers play their part.

The latest Monthly Oil Market Report from the OPEC Secretariat makes a smalldownward revision to world oil demand in 2011 and 2012, with a weaker outlook for

the US, in line with expectations.

Crude oil prices fell sharply yesterday as the markets opened following the S&P downgrade

of US long-term debt over the weekend. Brent settled $5.36 lower at $103.74/bbl, still

above this years lows, while WTI settled $5.57 lower at $81.31/bbl, its lowest levels since

November 2010. In a day characterised by significant intraday volatility across asset classes,

both the oil benchmarks traded in a six dollar range. After market close, Brent traded close

to the psychologically important $100 mark and though it showed remarkable resistance in

breaking through yesterday, in early trade this morning, selling pressure propelled Brent to

below $98 to their lowest since January this year, while WTI has traded through the $80level for the first time since September 2010. The current mayhem in oil prices is a result of

broad-based risk aversion across asset classes, increasing margin calls and a domino effect

from technical triggers being crossed. We believe underlying oil market fundamentals do

not warrant such a sharp correction in prices. In fact, the supply side continues to be

plagued with the absence of Libyan volumes expected to continue through to the rest of the

year at the very least given the latest indications from the political and the operational front

from foreign oil companies. With Libyan volumes out of the market, Saudi Arabia has

stepped up its production no doubt, but in the short term, that has increasingly gone to feed

direct domestic crude burn over the summer for producing electricity. While not ruling out

further undershooting to the downside unless economic sentiment improves, it is worth

noting that the sustainable floor for prices in general should be higher in this cycle

compared to 08/09 given the higher producer price aspirations from running elevatedbudgets that warrant a higher breakeven price. With OPEC output at a three-high year, the

key producers have some room for manoeuvre if they chose to prioritise their own cash

flows. Over today and tomorrow, monthly reports from key agencies will be released, which

will aid in shaping the sentiment around oil market balances against the current

macroeconomic backdrop. We would expect some downward revisions to 2011 oil

demand, particularly in the US, as historical revisions to both oil demand and GDP have

resulted in lower growth than previously expected. In line with that, the latest Monthly Oil

Market Report from the OPEC Secretariat makes a downward revision of 0.15 mb/d to

world oil demand growth in 2011, now forecasted at 1.2 mb/d and keeps 2012 growth

broadly unchanged at 1.3 mb/d. However, changes to baseline demand for 2011 and 2012

were a relatively minor 40 thousand b/d and 60 thousand b/d, respectively, with the bulk of

the growth reduction in 2011 due to a higher 2010 base. The primary revision came on the

back slower expansion in the US economy, with a large downward revision of 0.25 mb/d

and 0.26 mb/d to US oil demand in 2011 and 2012, respectively. The OPEC report does

however paint a constructive picture for Japanese demand, with a rebound expected in the

second half of the year. On the supply side, OPEC remains optimistic on the prospects of

non-OPEC supply, despite several problems currently plaguing the North Sea, FSU and even

parts of Latin America. Though the Secretariat revised their expectations for 2011 lower by

20 thousand b/d, we would expect further downward revisions in the coming months.


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9 August 2011 3

Natural Gas

US natural gas watched the day's market turmoil from the sidelines. NBP day ahead prices gain some value on a short system, economic worries pull down

on prices along the curve.

US natural gas watched the day's market turmoil from the sidelines. While not traditionally asafe-haven investment, the durability of natural gas prices today was testament either to

the confidence of market participants that gas prices already reflect the newfound macro

uncertainty or, instead, that traders were stunned into inaction. Regardless, prompt month

prices were off by just a penny, to $3.94/MMBtu. Calendar 2012 was unchanged at $4.51.

Meanwhile, physical gas continued to flow and trade, and cash markets were mixed. Henry

Hub picked up a penny, ending at $4.01. SoCalBorder slipped 2 cents, to $4.09. New York

citygate (Transco-Z6) gained 19 cents, to $4.44. Texas remains the epicenter of very hot

weather, with surrounding states, all the way to the Southeast, experiencing warm weather

as well.

A short market led to an increase for prompt UK natural gas prices, while worries over the

global economy continued to push down on the curve, weakening the contango. Day aheadprices gained 1.3p on Monday, closing at 52.0 p/therm, due to weak domestic production

and slowing imports from Norway. While prices over the next few months also increased

with the prompt the rest of the curve continued to move downward. Winter 11 lost 0.4p,

summer 12 lost 0.7p, winter 12 lost 1.6p and summer 13 lost 1.2p. The large decline at the

far end of the curve was driven by falling oil prices and as fears over the state of the global

economy continue to grip the market. These divergent dynamics along the curve saw the

winter 11/winter 12 spread tighten to -2.8p from -4.0p on last Friday and -4.5p on last

Thursday. The spread between summer 12/winter 12 also tightened to -9.0p from -9.9p

last Friday.

Base metals

Guangxi Power Grid Corporation report that several aluminium smelters will face cuts inpower supply imminently, offering the prospect of further tightness in an already tight

domestic market.

SHFE aluminium time spreads tightening further.After plummeting yesterday, some of the metals have strengthened this morning with

aluminium in particular looking strong and lead not too far behind. Tin is up a little too,

though, after suffering heavily yesterday closing down 7% on the day, while lead was down

nearly 6%. Notable again for its strength, though, was aluminium, which fell a mere 0.7%.

The short-term outlook for base metals will remain very much tied to the whims of macro

sentiment, although prices are starting to approach the levels where either the cost curve or

attractive level to restock will provide some rebuttal to further moves lower. In terms of costcurve support, this effect is most obvious in the case of both aluminium (trading at the 87th

percentile on the cost curve on Monday's close) and nickel (trading at the 93rd percentile

on the cost curve on Mondays close). In terms of a potentially beneficial restocking effect,

copper at sub-$9000/t is likely to offer a powerful signal for the Chinese will be enticed into

the market to restock, given that consumer inventories have been close to depleted over the

past 12 months. In terms metals-specific developments, there is growing evidence of power

cuts impacting aluminium smelters in China. Antaike reported at the end of the last week

that aluminum smelters including Chalco Guangxi smelter (150Kt expected production in

2011), Baise Yinhai Aluminum smelter (175Kt expected production in 2011) and Laibin


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9 August 2011 4

Yinhai Aluminum smelter (212Kt expected output in 2011) have already received a circular

from Guangxi Power Grid Corporation to be prepared for cuts in power supply in the range

of 20-50%. This report follows a report last week that aluminium smelter margins in China

are being pressured by increasing costs following cost increases such as the average power

price increase of RMB0.02/Kwh seen in 15 provinces as well as higher carbon anode prices.

Antaike reported that smelter production costs have increased by at least RMB300/t

($47/t) and that smelters in Henan (25%), Guangxi (4%), Guizhou (5%) and Sichuan (4%)provinces (totalling 38% of Chinese production) made a loss in H1, or at best broke even.

Overall, such stories support the view that the current tightness in the Chinese aluminium

market is likely to remain in place for the foreseeable future until a more benign macro

environment enables higher price levels to drive a more aggressive supply response. So far

this year, despite production levels rising to new record levels (CNIA data showed output in

June up to 19Mty on an annualised basis, up 3% y/y YTD), robust demand trends have

more than matched that trend to produce a mild market deficit. SHFE stocks have more

than halved since the beginning of the year, physical premiums have re-emerged and the

front-end of the SHFE backwardation has widened further despite flat price falls, with the

cash to three-month back widening to $62/t and the cash to six month back rising above

$100/t. Certainly, the potential impacts on smelter output from power curbs, as reported in

Guangxi, combined with broad-based cost pressures on smelters mean the domestic

market could tighten further still over course of Q3 given that robust demand trends from

fabricators still remain in place.

Precious metals

Gold prices storm through the $1700/oz mark boosted by a flight to safety with ETPholdings at a new record.

Price action continued to diverge across the precious metals with the PGMs remaining

under pressure while gold and silver extended their gains. Gold prices stormed through the

$1700/oz barrier, testing $1720/oz before closing 3.1% higher on the day at a fresh all-time

high of $1716.9/oz. The macro environment has grown increasingly supportive for gold.The S&P downgrade of the US long-term sovereign credit rating from AAA to AA+

combined with press reports suggesting the ECB started buying Spanish and Italian debt

boosted safe-haven buying in gold. Gold prices hit fresh record highs not just in USD terms,

but also across a number of currencies ranging from EUR, GBP, INR, AUD, ZAR and CNY.

Gold flourished as equity markets tumbled with the S&P suffering its worst day since 2008,

the CHF and JPY fell while the dollar weakened against the euro amid fears of a global

slowdown. Gold ETP holdings rose by the largest daily inflow since May last year in the

midst of the European sovereign debt issues. Gold inflows reached 26.9 tonnes yesterday,

reflecting activity from the end of last week. Total metal held in trust has now reached yet

another record at 2259 tonnes. Inflows for August have already hit 65 tonnes, following the

strongest month since June last year (July inflows: 77 tonnes). Physical bar premiums were

mostly stable in Asia, with record prices failing to stimulate selling (Reuters) which bodeswell for prices in the near term. Gold prices have been propelled by the fertile external

backdrop as well as support from the physical market and the continued macro uncertainty

is set to drive further gains. Indeed gold prices surpassed platinum prices for the first time

since 2008, with platinum closing unchanged at $1712/oz. The same macro concerns that

are weighing upon the industrial demand for platinum are driving gold investment demand

and in turn prices to new highs. Silver prices also benefitted, riding upon golds coattail, up

1.7% to close just below $38.97/oz however ETP holdings fell by 123 tonnes yesterday.


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9 August 2011 5

Agriculture

Prices ease further across the board in early trade this morning. Near-term pricedirection is likely to remain choppy driven by macro-economic uncertainties and volatile

external markets.

Yesterday's USDA weekly cotton ratings data reflected the languishing state of the cropwith 41% of the US cotton crop rated poor/very poor while 61% of the crop in Texas

was rated poor/very poor, worsening from the poor/very poor rating 57% last week.

Agricultural commodity prices reflected further declines yesterday as bearish sentiment and

macro-economic unease have led to risk reduction. Near-term price direction is likely to

remain choppy driven by macro-economic uncertainties and volatile external markets.

Fundamentals for corn and soybeans remain firm, but macro-factors are likely to trump for

the time being. Thursday's August WASDE report is keenly awaited for the USDA's latest

estimate of US corn and soybean supplies and US corn yields in particular. Across the

grains, wheat prices posted the steepest drop yesterday. Corn prices our favoured

exposure across the agricultural complex have eased as well, but have posted the smallest

fall on the week across the agricultural complex. Weekly USDA crop ratings data released

late yesterday showed a 2% decline in the good/excellent rating for corn; a 1% rise in thesame for soybeans and a 4% decline in US spring wheat ratings. ICE cotton prices closed

below the $1/lb yesterday and have eased further in early trade this morning, to trade at

97.5 cents/lb. Yesterday's USDA weekly cotton ratings data reflected the languishing state

of the crop with 41% of the US cotton crop rated poor/very poor (compared to 10% last

year) while 61% of the crop in Texas (the largest cotton producing state in the US by a

margin) was rated poor/very poor, worsening from the poor/very poor rating 57% last

week. We continue to expect a further downgrade in the USDAs estimate of the 2011-12

US cotton crop, with the drought in Texas more than offsetting higher plantings y/y. While

USDA estimates for cotton production are likely to decline, global production estimates ex-

the US remain in good shape on y/y gains in output from other key producers like China,

India and Pakistan .


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9 August 2011 6

COMMODITY PRICES

US and London prices: Last trading sessions close

Commodity

Close Daily Change Close Weekly Change Close Monthly ChangeEnergy: Nymex/ICE Front Month Prices

NYMEX WTI 81.3 -6.4% 94.9 -14.3% 95.2 -14.5%NYMEX Gasoline RBOB (US/gln) 269.2 -4.0% 305.4 -11.9% 307.1 -12.3%NYMEX Heating Oil (US/gln) 280.2 -4.8% 309.7 -9.5% 308.8 -9.3%NYMEX Natural Gas US$/mmbtu 3.9 -0.2% 4.2 -6.0% 4.3 -8.2%ICE Brent 103.7 -5.1% 116.8 -11.2% 117.2 -11.5%ICE Gasoil (US$/t) 900.3 -1.3% 970.8 -7.3% 958.8 -6.1%ICE Natural Gas (pence/therm) 50.4 0.6% 51.1 -1.4% 54.8 -8.0%ICE Carbon Emissions EUA Dec 2011 (/tn) 10.7 0.3% 12.0 -10.5% 12.1 -11.2%Base Metals: LME 3M Prices US$/tAluminium 2386 -0.7% 2585 -7.7% 2478 -3.7%Copper 8781 -2.9% 9650 -9.0% 9570 -8.2%Lead 2205 -6.6% 2565 -14.0% 2676 -17.6%Nickel 21250 -5.6% 24550 -13.4% 23225 -8.5%Tin 22505 -7.6% 28100 -19.9% 26600 -15.4%Zinc 2091 -5.0% 2461 -15.0% 2311 -9.5%Precious Metals: Spot Prices (US$/oz)Gold 1716.9 3.1% 1618.1 6.1% 1553.6 10.5%

Silver 39.0 1.7% 39.3 -0.7% 35.8 9.0%Platinum 1711.9 0.0% 1788.5 -4.3% 1722.0 -0.6%Palladium 714.8 -3.3% 825.3 -13.4% 764.0 -6.4%Agriculturals:CBOT/ICE Front Month PricesCBOT Corn (US/bushel) 675.3 -2.6% 681.3 -0.9% 681.5 -0.9%CBOT Soybeans (US/bushel) 1309.3 -1.7% 1358.8 -3.6% 1352.5 -3.2%CBOT Wheat (US/bushel) 656.5 -3.3% 676.5 -3.0% 636.0 3.2%ICE Cocoa US$/t 2909.0 -0.9% 2955.0 -1.6% 3058.0 -4.9%ICE Coffee (US/lb) 234.2 -1.6% 241.4 -3.0% 257.9 -9.2%

ICE Cotton (US/lb) 99.0 -2.4% 105.6 -6.2% 111.6 -11.3%

ICE Sugar (US/lb) 27.0 -2.0% 29.0 -6.9% 28.9 -6.7%

08 August 11 01 August 11 11 July 11

Source: Ecowin, Barclays Capital


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9 August 2011 7

COMMODITIES RESEARCH ANALYSTS

Barclays Capital5 The North ColonnadeLondon E14 4BB

Gayle BerryCommodities Research+44 (0)20 3134 [email protected]

Xin Yi ChenCommodities Research+65 6308 [email protected]

Suki CooperCommodities Research+1 212 526 [email protected]

Helima CroftCommodities Research+1 212 526 [email protected]

Paul HorsnellCommodities Research+44 (0)20 7773 [email protected]

Costanza JacazioCommodities Research+1 212 526 [email protected]

Kerri MaddockCommodities Research+44 (0)20 3134 [email protected]

Miswin MaheshCommodities Research+44 (0)20 [email protected]

Roxana Mohammadian-MolinaCommodities Research+44 (0)20 7773 [email protected]

Kevin NorrishCommodities Research+44 (0)20 7773 [email protected]

Biliana PehlivanovaCommodities Research+1 212 526 [email protected]

Amrita SenCommodities Research+44 (0)20 3134 [email protected]

Trevor SikorskiCommodities Research+44 (0)20 3134 [email protected]

Nicholas SnowdonCommodities Research+1 212 526 [email protected]

Sudakshina UnnikrishnanCommodities Research+44 (0)20 7773 [email protected]

Shiyang WangCommodities Research+1 212 526 [email protected]

Michael ZenkerCommodities Research

+1 415 765 [email protected]

Commodities Sales

Craig ShapiroHead of Commodities Sales+1 212 412 [email protected]

Martin WoodhamsCommodity Structuring+44 (0)20 7773 [email protected]

Peter RozenauersCommodities Sales, Non Japan Asia+65 9114 [email protected]


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Analyst Certification(s)We, Suki Cooper, Kerri Maddock, Miswin Mahesh, Kevin Norrish, Amrita Sen, Nicholas Snowdon, Sudakshina Unnikrishnan, Shiyang Wang and MichaelZenker, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our personal views about any or all of the subject securities orissuers referred to in this research report and (2) no part of our compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendationsor views expressed in this research report.

Important DisclosuresFor current important disclosures regarding companies that are the subject of this research report, please send a written request to: Barclays Capital ResearchCompliance, 745 Seventh Avenue, 17th Floor, New York, NY 10019 or refer to https://ecommerce.barcap.com/research/cgi-bin/all/disclosuresSearch.pl or

call 212-526-1072.Barclays Capital does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that Barclays Capitalmay have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Any reference to Barclays Capital includes its affiliates. Barclays Capital and/or anaffiliate thereof (the "firm") regularly trades, generally deals as principal and generally provides liquidity (as market maker or otherwise) in the debt securitiesthat are the subject of this research report (and related derivatives thereof). The firm's proprietary trading accounts may have either a long and / or shortposition in such securities and / or derivative instruments, which may pose a conflict with the interests of investing customers. Where permitted and subjectto appropriate information barrier restrictions, the firm's fixed income research analysts regularly interact with its trading desk personnel to determine currentprices of fixed income securities. The firm's fixed income research analyst(s) receive compensation based on various factors including, but not limited to, thequality of their work, the overall performance of the firm (including the profitability of the investment banking department), the profitability and revenues ofthe Fixed Income Division and the outstanding principal amount and trading value of, the profitability of, and the potential interest of the firms investingclients in research with respect to, the asset class covered by the analyst. To the extent that any historical pricing information was obtained from BarclaysCapital trading desks, the firm makes no representation that it is accurate or complete. All levels, prices and spreads are historical and do not representcurrent market levels, prices or spreads, some or all of which may have changed since the publication of this document. Barclays Capital produces a variety ofresearch products including, but not limited to, fundamental analysis, equity-linked analysis, quantitative analysis, and trade ideas. Recommendationscontained in one type of research product may differ from recommendations contained in other types of research products, whether as a result of differingtime horizons, methodologies, or otherwise.

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Level 28, South Tower, Singapore 048583. Barclays Bank PLC, Australia Branch (ARBN 062 449 585, AFSL 246617) is distributing this material in Australia. Itis directed at 'wholesale clients' as defined by Australian Corporations Act 2001.IRS Circular 230 Prepared Materials Disclaimer: Barclays Capital and its affiliates do not provide tax advice and nothing contained herein should be construedto be tax advice. Please be advised that any discussion of U.S. tax matters contained herein (including any attachments) (i) is not intended or written to beused, and cannot be used, by you for the purpose of avoiding U.S. tax-related penalties; and (ii) was written to support the promotion or marketing of thetransactions or other matters addressed herein. Accordingly, you should seek advice based on your particular circumstances from an independent taxadvisor.Barclays Capital is not responsible for, and makes no warranties whatsoever as to, the content of any third-party web site accessed via a hyperlink in thispublication and such information is not incorporated by reference. Copyright Barclays Bank PLC (2011). All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced in any manner without the prior written permissionof Barclays Capital or any of its affiliates. Barclays Bank PLC is registered in England No. 1026167. Registered office 1 Churchill Place, London, E14 5HP.Additional information regarding this publication will be furnished upon request.


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61936632 commodity briefing commodities not king crimson 8-9-11

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