602-150211 offshore wind market analysis [web edit]

8/3/2019 602-150211 Offshore Wind Market Analysis [WEB EDIT]

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s ore n ar e na ys s: o ngs ore n ar e na ys s: o ng

Edited version

Adam Westwood

1

Offshore Wind Support Journal Conference, London. 15 February 2011


2/17

Current status

Over 3 GW installed worldwide

1,200Belgium

offshore right now

Su ly chain has seen

1,000

W

Denmark

Germany

considerable growth and

investment600Capacity

UK

Others

Becoming increasinglyindependent from the onshore

400Installe

w n n us ry

There have been significant cost200

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

2


3/17

Market forecast Capacity

3.5

4.0Belgium

China

Denmark

2.5

3.0

acity

GW

Germany

Netherlands

UKUSA

1.5

2.0

InstalledCap

Othersor more n ormat on p ease contact

Douglas-Westwood

0.5

1.0

11 GW forecast to come online 2011-2015

0.02006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

The three biggest markets: UK 4.3 GW

3

China 1.2 GWSource: The World Offshore Wind Report 2011-2015. Douglas-Westwood


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Market forecast Capex

12

14Belgium

China

Denmark

8

10

iiture

bn

Germany

Netherlands

UKUSA

6

pitalExpend


Douglas-Westwood

2

C

38 billion of ca ital ex enditure ex ected 2011-2015

02006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

For more information

please contactDou las-Westwood

2011: 5bn 2015: 12bn

For more informationplease contact

Douglas-Westwood

4 UK alone will see 15bn capex this period

Source: The World Offshore Wind Report 2011-2015. Douglas-Westwood

please contact

Douglas-Westwood


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Growth in context

2010 2015

3.6 bn

1 GW

12.1 bn

3.6 GW

Capex

Capacity370

639

944

1,119

Turbines Foundations

For moreinformation pleasecontact Douglas-

Westwood

518 km21

1,444 km40

Cables Installation vessels s

5Source: The World Offshore Wind Report 2011-2015. Douglas-Westwood


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Market forecast Turbines

900

1,000Belgium

China

Denmark

600

700

Installed

Germany

Netherlands

UKUSA

400

500

Turbines


Douglas-Westwood

100

200

0

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

,

Major investment being seen in new turbine productionfacilities, with several new plants in the UK

6Source: The World Offshore Wind Report 2011-2015. Douglas-Westwood


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Market forecast Vessels

40

45Turbine installation

Foundation installation

25

30

35

req

uired

Infield cable installation

Export cable installation

15

20

llationvessel or more n ormat on p ease contact

Douglas-Westwood

5

10Instal

Minimum installation vessel re uirements b 2015:

0

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

12 turbine installation vessels 15 foundation installation vessels

7

14 cable installation vessels



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Market forecast Personnel Transfer Vessels

250

300

Construction Operations

200

elsrequired

100

150

ransferVess or more n ormat on p ease contact

Douglas-Westwood

50

Personnel

Hi h rowth sector

0

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

86 vessels in use last year High demand for new vessels between 16-70 new vessels

8

needed each year



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Market Dynamics

Key points

After 5 years of increases, costs have started to flatten off Requirement upon financial sector is enormous and represents a

major challenge considering the capacity in prospect

Continued long-term support from government remains essential Needed for investors and supply chain companies to gain the

Already several examples of what happens when governments dont

commit

9


10/17

Markets Europe

UK

This has provided sufficient structure and reward

ROCs have now been increased & extended several times Enabled projects to proceed that wouldnt otherwise this

adaptiveness has been critical given cost increases

The UK lacked a significant supply chain, and saw little benefitfrom projects, but this is now changing

a or e ort to attract tur ne manu acturers as proven success u Multiple manufacturers now establishing here

and the impact of this on investment

10


11/17

Markets Europe

Germany

German is now seein rowth Increased confidence in project delivery with a

competitive market mechanism and grid

connection policy

Supply chain is already strong a result of over 5

years of strategic development Financing of projects is a concern with less utility

11


12/17

Markets Europe

Netherlands

Recent licensing of projects hasgiven a boost to the market

A lack of commitment hadpreviously clouded the outlook

Contracting on fully approved

But large scale development not

Dutch 2020 targets will require a

big push if they are to be met

12


13/17

Markets Asia

China

Despite only recently entering the industry China has massive

ambitions

With firmer legislation & tariffs imminent, growth will be rapid Chinas recent onshore wind development demonstrates this Many shallow water (and inter-tidal) sites initially Up to $750 billion expected to be invested in renewables in the next

-year p an

13


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Markets Asia

China

further boost the renewables sector

We ex ect China to be the worlds biggest market within 10 years

Supply chain development is moving quickly multiple domesticmanufacturers now with offshore turbines

CNOOC is amongst the most ambitious developers at present Foreign involvement is restricted and will initially be minimal

South Korea

Emer in as a otential rowth market

14

Phase 1 of its first major project due in 2013


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Markets North America

USA

US DOE estimates 54 GW of offshore wind b 2030 Legislation is now coming together

$50m committed by DOE last week to speed up market development Final approval of Cape Wind project has provided an impetus Atlantic coast focus shallow waters & high local electricity demand

$5bn offshore transmission backbone planned here The supply chain must now respond,

First offshore projects may struggle to control costs

15


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Conclusions

The offshore wind industry is at its strongest ever Encouraging signs of cost reduction

This growth offers considerable opportunities in manufacturing,

UK will remain the market leader for most of this decade Not just Europe China will grow fast and could become the largest

market within ten years The stability of the industry remains a concern key countries must.

16


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Thank ou

17Donghai Bridge Offshore Wind Farm

this presentation can be downloaded fromwww.douglas-westwood.com

602-150211 offshore wind market analysis [web edit]

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