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Thailand Tourism Marketing-

Mapping the Future Conference

A Scenario Planning Perspective

co-organized by PATA Thailand Chapter, Skal International Thailand and

the Joint Chambers of Commerce

Shangri-La Bangkok, May 19th, 2011

Professor dr. Frank M. Go

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Mapping the Future

Prof Frank Go,

Bangkok, May,19th 2011

Agenda

Where are we

now?

Where are we

going?

a.

story

b.

blind

spots

c.

leverage

a.

possibilities

b.

agendac. commit

ment

How will we get

there?

Strategy

Current scenarioa. Patterns

b. Best-fit

c. Scenario plans

Preferred scenario

(valued outcomes)

WHERE ARE WE NOW?

4 4

Media Power Influences Perceptions

The international media

have proven “stunningly

successful in telling us what

to think about."

Shaw and McCombs (1977)

5

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Q1 06 Q2 06 Q3 06 Q4 06 Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10

Thailand awareness crossed the

threshold in 2010

Before public opinion can move, a national image must cross a certain

level of awareness. Thailand‟s political upheavals have reached those

levels in 2010. The question for Thailand is to find

a steady tourist‟ message to regain lost reputation.

Volume of Reports on Thailand per quarter in International news

Basis: 1608 reports on Thailand in 34 international TV news media.

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Thai topics resemble war rather than tourist zone

Clearly less than optimal to convincing Western tourists to visit Bangkok

en route to their holiday destinations.

Baseline: 1608 reports on Thailand in 34 international TV news media.

Western media portrayed Thailand as a warzone in the past

five years. Here are the leading TV news topics on Thailand

0 40 80 120

Demonstrations

Social unrest

Conflicts

Poltical resignation

Domestic policy

0 100 200 300

Demonstrations

Social unrest

Domestic policy

Domestic use of military

Urban warfare

Political Crime

Assassinations

Domestic security

Diplomacy

0 20 40 60 80

Social unrest

Murder

Political Crime

Insurgency

Tennis tournament

0 20 40 60

Traffic accidents

Child Abuse

National elections

Accidents

Golf tournament

0 20 40 60

Demonstrations

Social unrest

Traffic accidents

Accidents and tragedies

Research into vaccines

2006

2007

2008

2009 2010

7 7

“The Abhisit government gave 2,000 baht per night to

tourists who were left stranded at Suvarnabhumi and

Don Mueang airports when they were seized by

yellow-shirt protesters near the end of 2008.”

8

0 1'000 2'000 3'000 4'000 5'000 6'000

China

Japan

India

South Korea

Indonesia

Singapore

Thailand

Malaysia

Vietnam

Negative Neutral Positive

Asian opportunities dominated by the big three

China India and Japan dominate the Asian investment discussion. The

advantages which make these economies positive are there potential

growth, market size and engagement with the West. Thailand is seen as a

potential market.

Baseline: 10508 statements on Asian investment opportunities in 8 (9) financial media 2010

Volume and Rating of Asian investment opportunities in analyst citations

9

0 5 10 15 20

Analysts in general

JP Morgan Chase

HSBC

Capital Economics

Citibank

Standard Chartered

Barclays Capital

Société Générale

Morgan Stanley

Most cited analysts

Active monitoring and dialogue with analysts and journalists is a core

component to national reputational risk management.

Basis: 131 statements on Asian investment opportunities in 8 (9) financial media 2010

Most cited analysts on Thailand by Volume and Tonality

Western banks comment on Thai opportunityJP Morgan Chases supported Thailand through its Sugar and Economic

development analysis in 2010.10

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Analysts in general

JP Morgan Chase

HSBC

Capital Economics

Citibank

Standard Chartered

Barclays Capital

Société Générale

Morgan Stanley

Negative Neutral Positive

10

Thailand suffers negative news flow

The crisis pattern in Thailand‟s reporting portrayed extreme negativity;

Means that the country‟s reputation for friendliness and tourism is at risk.

The coverage has spikes; how to get a more positive communication flow?

Tone of quarterly International news volume on Thailand

Basis: 1608 reports on Thailand in 34 international TV news media.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Q1 06 Q2 06 Q3 06 Q4 06 Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10

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ARD Tagesthemen

ZDF heute

RTL Aktuell

ARD Tagesschau

Heute journal

TF1 Journal

Ten o'Clock News

BBC 1

News at Ten (ITV)

BBC 2 Newsnight

Rai 1

SF DRS 1 Tagesschau

SF DRS 1 Rundschau

SF DRS 1 Eco

SF 10 Vor 10

TVE 1 Telediario

NBC Nightly News

ABC World News

Tonight

FOX CBS Evening

News

Al Arabiyah

Nile News

LBC TV

TRT

Al Jazeera

Dubai TV

CCTV

Afrikaans News

(SABC2)

English News

(SABC3)

ETV News Zulu/Xhosa

News

Financial Analyst

Media Set

Financial Times

Economist

Les Echos

Il sole 24 ore

Expansión

Mint

Financial Mail

Forbes

Wall Street Journal

Barron's

International Media Set

12

Bangkok Metropolis sinking at a rate of about 4 inches per year.

15-20 years whole area below sea level?

How to protect Bangkok from being submerged by the sea?

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WHERE IS THE THAI STORY?

14 14

Current Position

Growth rate: Tourism Council of Thailand cut

growth target to a range of 5-8% from 8-10%.

Negative influences: Slow global recovery, volatile

oil prices, political problems Middle East and Africa

Competitive Performance: Thailand’s Travel and

Tourism Competitiveness showed drop from 39th

(2009) to 41th in 2011.

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Thailand’s Rank in the Global

Competitiveness Report 2010-2011

• Strength and Weakness

Relatively sophisticated developed clusters (34th)

companies operating across the value chain.

Administration – 70th place of 139

• Threat and Opportunity

Domestic turbulence; drop 30 places in 4 years

Domestic and export markets (23rd)

How to capitalize on strength and opportunity?

16WEF Report

”Such efforts will then buttress Thailand’s innovation

potential, which will become increasingly important as it

moves towards the most advanced stage of economic

development.”

“In addition to urgently improving its institutional framework,

[Thailand] needs to step up its effort to improve its health and

educational systems and encourage wider adoption of new

technologies for productivity enhancements.”

Global Competitiveness Report 2010-2011

Thailand’s Position

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Strategic Tourism Portfolio Assessment

Cost – Benefit Ratio of Source Markets

1st Quarter

5.36 million tourist arrivals compared to 4.66 same period in 2010

TCT cut Growth rate (20-04-11) to + 5 - 8% giving Thailand 16.73 – 17.21

million visits

Receipts : Bt 6.22 billion

Supply Market Region Asia: 50%

Primary: China, Japan, Korea, Malaysia

Secondary: Cambodia, Laos

Supply Market Region Europe: 34%

Russia. Denmark, Finland, Italy, Sweden, eastern Europe and France + 15%

Daily spend: 3.753,57

Source: TCT

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What Strategic Lever Will Give

TAT Advantage?

What direction and scope should Thailand’s

Tourism sector pursue over the long-term

to achieve advantage in a changing environment

through its configuration of resources and

competences

with the aim of fulfilling stakeholders?

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Strategic Perspective

Formulating

Strategy

Implementing

Strategy

Outside - in

Perspective Perceptions

How others see us

Standards, Norms

Critical Success Factors

Inside – out

PerspectiveCompetencies

SWOT

Conditions

Perspective

WHERE ARE WE GOING?

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22 22

Scenario Planning

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What are Scenarios?

Scenarios don‟t predict the future but challenge our assumptions

Scenarios help create a map of uncertainty to identity visible and invisible forces that drive us towards the unknown future

They ask what will happen if the unexpectedhappens; therefore, scenarios prepare us for the

unthinkable.

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How Does Scenarios Planning

Differ From Forecasting?

The Present

The Path

The Future

Forecasts

Current

Realities

(mental maps)Multiple

Paths

Alternative

Future Images

Scenarios

Source: SHELL

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Why use Scenarios?

There is no single answer to the question what tomorrow will bring.

Therefore, scenario builders make sets of stories that capture a range of possible outcomes, positive and frightening, expected, surprising.

They may include the same forces that are likely to persist, but describe different ways the

uncertain factors are likely to play out.

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How Far Forward Do We See?

Event/Problemfocused

Short term(2 years)

Medium term(3-10 years)

Long term(11-20 years)

Verylong term(50 years)

Country/businessfocused

Businessfocused

Issuefocused

Togetherwe can make a difference

Niche and High -endMarkets Sustainability

Long term energy,hydrogen economy

GLOBAL SCENARIOS

Source: adapted from Shell

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Mapping Scenarios

1. Map the certainties and uncertainties – determine what you

don‟t know that you should know;

2. Widen your perspective. Routine can create blind spots;

experience, training and current manners largely determine how

we see the world.

3. Plan your scenarios. Determine the goals, audience,

expectations, and time horizon of your scenarios.

4. Tell a story. The scenarios must form a coherent, relevant, and

communicable set of stories, rather than simply list expectations

and variables.

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Matc

h T

ou

ris

m-m

arket

To

uris

m m

arket: m

ism

atc

h

Local: fragmentation/isolation

Global : Geographically distributed knowledge-based Society

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Scenario IV: “The Traditional Comfort Zone”

“If you asked someone to

name 20 tourist destinations in

Thailand, he or she would list

the same places as a decade

ago.

The country's selling points are

still beautiful beaches, but key

rivals like Vietnam and the

Maldives have those too.”

Chanin Donavanik, CEO

Dusit International

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Scenario III: “Our Traditional Paradise Lost”

Thai room rates have

dropped, mainly due to

political squabbling since

the end of 2008.

The rate of five-star hotels

in Thailand is about 3,000

baht per night, but in

Singapore it stands at

10,000 baht.

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Scenario II: “Thai Tourism Misfit”

“The major problems of

the industry are the lack

of a clear vision by

authorities and a shortage

of cooperation among

government agencies.

Thai Airways

International, Airports of

Thailand and the Ministry

of Tourism and Sports

work separately.”

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Scenario I: “Your new private paradise”

“… we have strengths and

our Thainess remains

attractive. If the new leader

has any insights and

seriously promotes tourism,

we can surpass this

growth."

HOW WILL WE GET THERE?

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PATTERNS & POSSIBILITIES

3535

Strategic Choices

Agenda

The long -term

direction

“A quality destination of diversified tourist attractions,

valuable experiences and impressions”

Re-structure the market towards expansion in quality

markets with increase in average spending per trip.

Recognize market changes particularly the special

importance of major niche market groups

The scope of

activities

Golf

Honeymoon and wedding

Health & Beauty

Sports Tourism

Green Tourism

Competitive

Advantage

Media networks with increasing memberships;

Extending sales channels through alliances;

Events and road shows, cooperation

with Thai tour operators.

3636

Strategic Choices

Agenda

Resources and

competences

Seminars that enhance knowledge

Thai identity based tourism product

development

Database development

Systematic human resource

development and management

Values and

Expectations

Creating tourism as part of life

Promoting travel linkages

Protection of tourist attractions

Urgent need to evaluate strategic options

under conditions of climate change, increasing fuel prices,

online comparisons and bookings

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Comprehension: Quality is not what a company puts in a

product. It is what customers perceive.

The Hierarchical Decision Model: Ranking

Awareness Familiarity Preference Advocacy (Promoter Score)

Comparison: Distinctive benefits vs. customer effort, costs risk

Leadership for product development, professionalism.

Bottom line: Continuity if quality is forever, we have to

continually look ahead. “Cheap and cheerful not sustainable.”

- Tim Riches, Future Brand.

Mapping the Future Together

Strengthening Thailand brand image

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Place Branding

Goal

formulation

Mission

statement

Targets

Analysis of

current place

brand :

Projected Image

Identity

Perceived

image

Design new

place brand

concept:

Brand identity

Experience

concept

Value match

Implementing

new products:

Communication

Construction

Collaboration

Annual Audit of

destination

brand:

Image

Awareness

Promotional

material

Collaboration

STEP 1 STEP 2 STEP 4STEP 3 STEP 5

Stakeholder process: Online and offline project communication

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How to operationalize sustainable development?

Climate change: Flooding Queensland; retreating glaciers

Water = life ; balance: local food production

Volume-driven tourism towards tourism leveraging place reated

know how

Bottom line Comprehension: Quality is in the eye of customers

so step one is comprehending what that means. “We love only

what we understand.” Such insight can help us to reduce;

recycle, restore, e.g. Thomas‟ reforestation project.

- Thomas Bauer, Hong Kong

Polytechnic University.

Mapping the Future Together:

Promoting sustainable tourism

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To promote actions that protect and

enhance NZ’s environment the

following are deemed key stakeholders:

• Ministry of Tourism

• Tourism Industry Association

• Tourism New Zealand

• New Zealand Maori Tourism Council

• Tour Operators

• Ministry of the environment

• Ministry of Transport

• Department of Conservation

100% Pure New Zealand

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Prize winner** Sri Lanka

(1) Environment management, social and

community development strategies and

programs at Heritance Kandlama;

(2) Emergence of an organizational culture

anchored on sustainable development; and

(3) Human resources practices that

engendered and reinforced employees'

commitment to implement sustainable

tourism practices, and strong employee

support for Heritage Kandalama's

customer service delivery model.

www.aitkenspence.com

Leading blue-chip conglomerate in Sri Lanka,

Aitken Spence Hotels Helping Planet and People

in Partnership with Atmosfair Germany.

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Culture: Growth brings complexity, also opportunities

Social: 681 million registered Facebook users

4 billion mobile phones.

People‟s desire to participate in a specific space (e.g. local

restaurant)

Groupon in 2 years 30% margin

Bottom line Creativity: innovations originating from consumers

have highest success rate (trustworthy p2p, e.g. TripAdvisor)

- Tiwa York, OMNICOM Media Group

Director of Platforms

Mapping the Future Together:

e-marketing & social media

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Mapping the Future: 44% of consumers

use social networks to enhance tv viewing

Thinkbox, the marketing body for

commercial TV in the UK, recently

conducted a survey of 3,000

consumers and found that:

60% of people concurrently watch TV

go online at least 2-3 times, weekly.

37% go online while watching TV daily.

44% use Facebook and Twitter, while

watching TV.

37% have chatted online about TV

content.

19% shared TV content on a social

network.

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Brands must start moving from traditional media models to multi-

screen, multi-platform marketing.

Heineken rolled out a global initiative to enable people to interact

with each other online while watching Champions League football.

Expedia looks to invest in multi-screen marketing (according to

EMEA Senior Marketing Director Andrew Warner)

With the rise of smart phone and tablet users, brands need to

consider how to create a more social experience to TV viewing.

Social media strategy ties with other forms of advertising will help

engage an audience across multiple channels and across multiple

media and through a basic game encourage brand engagement.

How can brands move into the dual screen arena?

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Risks: Contagious disease Swineflu (2009), SARS (2003)

Governance of stakeholders‟ perception

Media B2B and B2C gaining trust of the media

Reputation is judgment: honesty, consistency, reliability,

transparency

Competitive destination – to be build on collaborative spirit

Index, core indicators and criteria

Bottom line: Need for management credibility

- David Beirman, Sydney University

of Technology

Mapping the Future:

Reputation management

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The Corronation Street Fan Community

is thriving and continues to grow

Over 40 years later the Corronation

series still ranks amongst the UK's

highest viewing figures,

achieving some 18 million viewers

at its peak, and many more on a

worldwide bases.

It is now dubbed into many dozens

of languages and shown throughout

every continent on the globe.

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The Corronation Street Fan Community

is thriving and continues to grow

Interesting points:

1) A sometimes disparate

fragmented community, yet knits

itself together

2) Managers exist, and fluctuate in

dominance, but no one really „runs‟

the community

Questions to ask:

1) Is this a more democratic form

of online community management?

2) Without centralized management,

the community is also without a

strategy – will it suffer?

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Population aged 65 and over

Source: Population Reference Bureau, 2007

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Air Transport: 35,460 routes and 3,808 airports

Air access to Thailand: not easy and expensive fares

Middle East hubs draw secondary cities‟ residents cheaper fares

Thailand aims at high end market to increase yield

CONCLUDING REMARKS

PLATFORM IMPLEMENTATION

52 52

What is current scenario plan?

Upgrade from low-value to high value activities

Product upgrading - attract high end travel

Process upgrading – more sophistication

Inter-chain upgrading – special interest niches

Functional upgrading – brand, social media,

greening

53 53

Best Fit Criteria for Competitive Advantage

Organization: Degree to which tourism is institutionalized;

strength of clusters and networks

Investment: Expenditures on knowledge, facilities, learning and

social innovation, technologies

Branding: positioning through experiences and events

Intelligence: data marketing research, assessment, reflection

Expertise: professionalism – self, business, community

5454

How Does Value Figure in Best Fit?

“Value” can be measured in multiple ways

Perceived value by tourists of different destinations

Expectations of powerful actors (expand /consolidate)

Value adding network relations needed to create service

Sourcing international markets for cost advantages,

unique capabilities

5555

Thailand in the World Market

External Forces

Political - Political situation „wildcard‟

Economic - Stagnation global recovery

Social - Aging populations in West

Technological - Internet and nano technology

Environmental - Natural disasters

Legal – De -regulation airlines

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Why connect TAT and English

Speaking Tourism Industry leaders?

Business is main growth driver

Government shapes the conditions?

Smart destinations focus on co-creative

vision

Effective response to challenges requires

pooling of resources.

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How to Bridge Divides in Global Value Chain:

Geographic distance

Cultural differences

Governance differences

Infrastructural differences

Biases in information processes

In order to understand the reality of customers,

suppliers and other stakeholders to raise the

capacity for innovation - the key source of

competitive advantage

Main challenge

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No country can be an island in today’s

business world

Each is locked in a complex network of relationships.

Managing relationships and brand position in the glocal tourism

business network has become the critical task on which the

sustainable Thai brand stands or falls.

capitalize on the potential of your expatriate communities

They are your bridge to the world markets –

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4. WHAT WE NEED

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Conclusions

• Leadership clarity is defined as: “The shared perceptions

of group members about the extent to which leadership

roles are clear within the team.” (West et al, 2003):

• Leadership clarity can lead to…

clear team objectives

high levels of participation

commitment to excellence

support for innovation through

• Put a platform together to do it together!

To achieve optimal success there must be leadership

clarity within the Thailand tourism strategy

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Connecting Value: Community Platform of Practice

Governments

&

Supranational

bodies

Enterprises

Specialized

High-end and

niche markets

Existing

market base

Carriers

Destinations

NGO‟s and

universities

Travel trade

Top-end

Luxury

market

Emerging

markets

TAT

SKAL

JFCCTPATA