Today….Today….• ArticlesArticles• Complexity, Contingency, and Accelerating ChangeComplexity, Contingency, and Accelerating Change

• There are very important differences between complex and simple systems. Simple systems are generally intuitively understandable, and their dynamics, such as “cause and effect,” are relatively easy to understand. The anthropogenic Earth, however, is characterized by complexity, which can be thought of as including four forms of complexity: static complexity (number of components and links among them); dynamic complexity (introduced by features such as lag times and feedback loops that operate as a system moves through time); “wicked” complexity, which comes into play as humans and their institutions get involved; and scale complexity, as humans increasingly operate at the scale of regional and global natural and built systems. These operate together to create radical contingency in the modern world, as it becomes difficult to determine what assumptions and institutions will remain valid over time. An important aspect of this contingency is that it undermines many traditional ethical systems: ethical structures (macroethics) appropriate for complex adaptive systems have not yet been developed.

• ActivityActivity

The Fish Game

For starters, go jump in a lake For starters, go jump in a lake (i.e, form teams):(i.e, form teams):

• Teams of 4-6 people Teams of 4-6 people • Each person will need:Each person will need:

– A score sheetA score sheet• Each team will need:Each team will need:

– A calculatorA calculator– A deck of “fish”A deck of “fish”

The GameThe Game• You are all fishers on a lake (each team is a different You are all fishers on a lake (each team is a different

lake)lake)• Each day you can decide to catch up to 3 fish (your Each day you can decide to catch up to 3 fish (your

fishing boat can hold a maximum of 3 fish at a time)fishing boat can hold a maximum of 3 fish at a time)• Each night, fish reproduction increases the population Each night, fish reproduction increases the population

by 20% but the total number of fish cannot exceed the by 20% but the total number of fish cannot exceed the lake’s carrying capacitylake’s carrying capacity

• Carrying capacity:Carrying capacity:– 4 people: start with 18 fish in the lake4 people: start with 18 fish in the lake– 5 people: start with 22 fish in the lake5 people: start with 22 fish in the lake– 6 people: start with 26 fish in the lake6 people: start with 26 fish in the lake

PlayingPlaying• The student with the first birthday after today goes The student with the first birthday after today goes

first… and takes up to 3 fishfirst… and takes up to 3 fish• The next person takes up to 3 fish and so on…The next person takes up to 3 fish and so on…• After each turn, record the number of fish you took After each turn, record the number of fish you took

and the total number you haveand the total number you have• After each round, compute 20% of the number of After each round, compute 20% of the number of

fish in the lake and add that number of fish (round fish in the lake and add that number of fish (round to the nearest fish)to the nearest fish)– Not to exceed the lake’s carrying capacityNot to exceed the lake’s carrying capacity

• Continue playing until you’ve played 10 rounds or Continue playing until you’ve played 10 rounds or you run out of fishyou run out of fish

• We will play 3 times with 3 different objectivesWe will play 3 times with 3 different objectives

Game 1Game 1

• Goal: Get as many fish as you personally canGoal: Get as many fish as you personally can

GO!GO!

Game 1Game 1

• What was the greatest number of fish held by What was the greatest number of fish held by 1 person?1 person?

• What was the strategy?What was the strategy?• How did other fishers behave?How did other fishers behave?• Could you have predicted this outcome Could you have predicted this outcome

without doing some analysis?without doing some analysis?• Is this a simple or a complex system?Is this a simple or a complex system?

Game 2Game 2

• Goal: Maximize your overall welfareGoal: Maximize your overall welfare

GO!GO!

Game 2Game 2

• How did you define “welfare”?How did you define “welfare”?• What was the greatest number of fish held per What was the greatest number of fish held per

team member (total fish team member (total fish team members)? team members)?• What was the strategy?What was the strategy?• Did any teams achieve “sustainable harvest” (i.e., Did any teams achieve “sustainable harvest” (i.e.,

you found a strategy that would allow you to play you found a strategy that would allow you to play indefinitely)?indefinitely)?– How? Was it How? Was it reallyreally sustainable? sustainable?

• Is this a simple or a complex system?Is this a simple or a complex system?

Game 3Game 3

• Goal: Maximize your overall welfareGoal: Maximize your overall welfare• BUT! Now you can “invest” up to 6 fishBUT! Now you can “invest” up to 6 fish• Each invested fish will increase the Each invested fish will increase the

reproduction rate by 5% in the subsequent and reproduction rate by 5% in the subsequent and all future roundsall future rounds

GO!GO!

Game 3Game 3

• Did you maximize your welfare? How?Did you maximize your welfare? How?• What was the greatest number of fish held per What was the greatest number of fish held per

team member (total fish team member (total fish team members)? team members)?• Did any teams achieve “sustainable harvest” Did any teams achieve “sustainable harvest”

(i.e., you found a strategy that would allow you (i.e., you found a strategy that would allow you to play indefinitely)?to play indefinitely)?– How? Was it How? Was it reallyreally sustainable? sustainable?

• How could it be more sustainable?How could it be more sustainable?

ComplexityComplexity

• Does this game represent a complex system?Does this game represent a complex system?• What is the source of the complexity?What is the source of the complexity?• What role do boundaries play in this system?What role do boundaries play in this system?

Simple vs. Complex SystemsSimple vs. Complex Systems

• Does this game represent a simple system?Does this game represent a simple system?– InformationInformation

• Is information distributed throughout the system?Is information distributed throughout the system?• Is the system predictable?Is the system predictable?

– CausalityCausality• Linear?Linear?

– Response to forcing?Response to forcing?– Central control possible?Central control possible?– Is there an endpoint?Is there an endpoint?– Adaptive?Adaptive?– Interdependent?Interdependent?– Difficult to predict outcomes?Difficult to predict outcomes?

Other ThoughtsOther Thoughts• What role did investment play in the game? What role did investment play in the game?

– What did it represent in the real world?What did it represent in the real world?• This is also an example of a commons game: This is also an example of a commons game:

Those that depend on the resource are Those that depend on the resource are responsible for managing the resource. responsible for managing the resource. – How did you manage your commons?How did you manage your commons?– What strategies would help you manage it better?What strategies would help you manage it better?– Is managing this system a “wicked problem”?Is managing this system a “wicked problem”?

Wicked Complexity: Systems that include human components; no optimal solution

ReferencesReferencesThe Fish Game was adapted from Cloud Institute for Sustainability Education (n.d.) The Fish Game was adapted from Cloud Institute for Sustainability Education (n.d.)

Play the Fish Game. Play the Fish Game. Retrieved August 29, 2010, from Retrieved August 29, 2010, from http://www.sustainabilityed.org/games/http://www.sustainabilityed.org/games/

For the Next Class…For the Next Class…• Human Faber: Human History and Technology; The Power of Technology

Systems: The Railroad• Homo Faber: Human History and Technology. It is not surprising that periods of

human development, such as “Neolithic” or “the Bronze Age,” have referred to the dominant technologies of the time, because humans, their institutions, and their societies have always been coupled, and indeed to some extent defined, by their technologies. Indeed, since the Industrial Revolution economists have used the idea of “long waves” of innovation, characterized by particular technology clusters such as coal and the steam engine, or automobiles, to help understand not just technological evolution, but also economic, social, and cultural evolution as well.

• The Power of Technology Systems: The Railroad. It is important to understand how pervasive the changes that a major technology system can introduce really are. Railroads are a good example. The railroad technology wave impacted a myriad of things and systems, including time, telegraph, managerial capitalism, modern capital and financial markets, landscape transformation, structure of the US Midwest, economic and power restructuring, monopolies, worldview of American culture, etc.

• Reading: Allenby, Chapter 5• Essay: If you had lived in a small village in the United States in the early 1800’s when

the first railroad was built in your area, how many of the changes that the railroad subsequently caused do you think you could have predicted? a