Impact of Climate Change on Water and Food in Pakistan

M. Mohsin Iqbal and M. Arif Goheer Global change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC), Islamabad

PSSP (Pakistan Strategy Support Program)

1st Annual Conference on ‘Productivity , Growth and Poverty Reduction in Rural Pakistan’

Islamabad, 13-14 December 2012

Most Serious Climate Change Concerns of Pakistan

The Task Force on Climate Change (TFCC)* has identified the following major concerns:

∗ Water Security ∗ Food Security ∗ Energy Security ∗ Vulnerability of Coastal areas *Set up by Planning Commission, Govt. of Pakistan in Oct

2008.The Final Report of TFCC was published on Feb 2010.

∗ River inflows from the snow and glacier melt from Himalayan Region : (97-172 million acre feet, maf)

∗ Rainfall: 180 maf Monsoon : July to September (80% of total) Winter rains: December to January (20% of total) ∗ Groundwater: 50 maf

Fresh Water Resources of Pakistan

Source: TFCC, 2010

∗ Western Himalayan glaciers will retreat for the

next 50 years causing increase of Indus River flows; then the glacier reservoirs will be empty, resulting in decrease of flows up to 30% to 40% over the subsequent 50 years (World Bank, 2006).

∗ Simulations conducted by GCISC show that with the rise in temperature and recession of glaciers, not only the flows of Indus River System will be reduced but the pattern of its seasonal flows will also be changed considerably.

Implications of Climate Change on Indus River Flows

5

Mean Monthly Flows for the Period of Record 1995-2004

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000Ja

n

Feb

Mar Apr

May Jun Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Disc

harg

e (C

umec

s)

Base Runoff CCS Runoff

Base Glacier melt CCS Glacier melt

Impact of Climate Change and Glacier retreat on UIB Flows Assumed Climate Change Scenario (CCS): ∆ Temp: +3°C, ∆ Glacier Area: - 50%

Main Results: 1. Annual flows reduced by 15% 2. Intra-Annual flow pattern considerably changed

Source: GCISC, 2009

Annual Flows of Western Rivers in Pakistan

Source: Indus River System Authority, 2010

7

Total Water Storage Capacity of Pakistan

Reservoir Capacity (Mangla + Chashma + Tarbela Dams)

Original : 18.4 MAF* (≈ 13 % of Average Annual Flows)

Year 2001 : 14.1 MAF (≈ 10 % of Average Annual Flows)

Present (2012) : 14.2 MAF (≈ 10 % of Average Annual Flows)

*MAF: Million Acre Feet

Source: WAPDA, 2011 (http://www.wapda.gov.pk/htmls/water-index.html)

Pakistan’s Water Scenario for 2025 Year 2004 2025

Availability 104 MAF 104 MAF

Requirement (including drinking water)

115 MAF 135 MAF

Overall Shortfall 11 MAF 31 MAF

Water Demand/ Consumption

Source: Ten Year Perspective Development Plan 2001-11, Planning Commission

Major Water Using Sectors in Pakistan

Sr. No.

Sectors Water usage (%)

2000*

2010**

1 Agricultural 96

69

2 Industrial 2 23

3 Municipal 2

8

* Bridges, Geoff; Asian Development Bank (2007). Asian Water Development Outlook 2007. Country Paper Pakistan ** Ministry of Environment ( Cited in Economic Survey of Pakistan , 2010)

Agriculture Systems of Pakistan

Total land area: 79.61 mha Cultivated area: 22.05 mha (28% of total) Irrigated area : 19.12 mha (84% of cultivated) Rainfed area : 3.67 mha (16% of cultivated)

∗ Pakistan’s agriculture system is predominantly irrigated with sizeable

rainfed area ∗ Irrigated agriculture provides 90% of Pakistan's food requirements, 2o%

of its GDP and employment to 60% of the population. ∗ Irrigated areas are vulnerable to irrigation water shortage due to glacier

melt in the wake of climate change ∗ Semi-arid and Arid areas are vulnerable to changes in quantity, intensity

and frequency of rainfalls.

Impacts of Climate Change on Crops

∗ Shortening of Growing Season Length (due to high

temperature) ∗ Loss in crop yields ∗ Susceptibility of reproductive growth stages to heat waves ∗ Changes in river flows (less water available at critical sensitive

growth stages) ∗ Increased evapotranspiration ∗ Increased land degradation (Waterlogging, Soil Salinization,

Wind and water Erosion)

Future Food Demand by 2025

Sr. No.

Food Item Present (2010) Projected (2025)*

1 Food grains 25,824 32,092

2 Edible Oil 2,256 2,803

3 Meat 2,935 3,647

4 Milk 15,900 19,758

5 Fruits 8,868 11,020

6 Vegetables 4,035 5,014

*Estimates are based on population increase only; changes in dietary habits were not considered.

000 tonnes

Wheat Yield in different agro-climatic zones of Pakistan under A2 Scenarios

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

Base 2020 2050 2080

Whe

at Y

ield

(kg/

ha)

Northern Mountainous Region Northern Sub mountainous

Southern Semi-arid Plains Southern Arid Plains

Source: GCISC, 2009

Basmati Rice Yield in Southern Semi-arid Plains of Pakistan under A2 and B2 Scenarios

Yield decrease by 2085:18% in A2 and 15% in B2 Scenarios

3000

3200

3400

3600

3800

4000

4200

4400

1990 2025 2055 2085 Year

Ric

e y

ield

(kg

/ha)

A2 Scenario

B2 Scenario

Source: GCISC, 2009

Simulated Crop Water Requirements due to Climate Change (Increasing Temperature)

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∗ Rice-Wheat System Net Irrigation Requirements (NIR) are likely to increase by 3% for

rise in temperature of 0.90C (upto 2020) and 6% for 1.80C (upto 2050).

∗ Maize-Wheat system NIR will increase by 3 and 7% for 0.9 and 1.80C rise in

temperature. ∗ Cotton-Wheat System NIR will increase by 3 and 7% for 0.9 and 1.8 rise in temperature.

Source: Shahid et. Al., 2011

Conclusions Challenges to WATER

Variability in River Flows and Flow Patterns, due to climate change driven melting of HKH glaciers.

∗ Decreasing per capita availability of water and increasing demand by different sectors

∗ Inadequate water storage capacity coupled with loss in existing storage capacity with time

∗ Increasing frequency and intensity of extreme climate events

Challenges to FOOD ∗ Crop yields decreasing due to increasing temperature, except in the northern

mountainous areas ∗ Both irrigated and rainfed areas are vulnerable to climate change and extreme events ∗ Food demand increasing due to change in food habits and rising incomes ∗ Crop water requirements increasing due to increased crop evapotranspiration