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5th PAN-EIROPEAN CONFERENCE ON INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS.CONSTRUCTING WORLD ORDERSThe Hague, 9-11 of September, 2004
HUMAN SECURITY IN LATIN AMERICA WITHSPECIAL REFERENCE TO MEXICO
Úrsula Oswald SpringCRIM-UNAM, Mexico
El Colegio deTlaxcala
Index
• Most important problems in Latin America• Global Scheme• Human Security and Poverty Alleviation• Hunger, Poverty and Child-Malnutrition• Income Gap Avoids Poverty Alleviation• Social Expenditure• Income and Worker Organization• Gender Security• Women in Politics• Institutions and Citizen Confidence• Importance of Democracy• Violence• Millenium Goals and Reduction of Extreme Poverty• Possibilities to Achieve the Millenium Goals• Mexico: Some Data• Human, Gender and Environmental Security in Latin America
Macro (Global )Environment
Superpower
Conflict Mediation Management
World Trade
Developing Context
Free Maricet
Science andTechnology
Mass Media
Sovereinty and its Articulation
Global Financial System
War
MultinationalEnterprises
MigrationDisplacement
Multilateralim
Terrorism,Crime
Cultural Diversity
Individual andPersonal
Goals
BasicNeeds
EducationSkills
Wellaing,Leisure
Socialization
SocialOrganization
IndividuationProcesses
Family
MicroEnvironment
Poverty
IntrafamiliarIntracommunity
Conflicts
Migration
Social Secutityand Welfare
Nation State
Family , Hanseholdsand Coummunity
Relations
WealthDisparities
Human Development
Gender Relations
Employment
Página 1
HUMAN SECURITY IN LATE MODERN SOCIETY DEEP INTERNALISED OCCIDENTAL VALUES, STATE CIVILIZATORY PROCESSES ANDCOLONIALISM ETNOCENTRISM, INDUSTRIALIZATION, AGE OF INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION REVOLUTION (GLOCALISATION )
Deep internalised values , Humankind , Beliefs, Habits, Gender Distinction , Rules, Costums
Militarism,
Basic HumanRights : Life
Determinants
Private Propiety , State of Law, Division of Powers, Democracy
HUMAN, GENDER & ENVIRONMENTAL
SECURITY
Health
Food
Shelder
Education
SexEmployment
Sustainable enviroment
Free PrehisionsExpression
NonviolentConflict
Resolution
Equity
Sustainability
Justice
Democracy
Vulnerability
Risk
Peace
Diversity
Conflict and Change
ColonialsmColonialsm EurocentrisEurocentris EthnocentrismEthnocentrism
Source: Latinobarómetro, 2004 *Includes political problems, terrorism, education, health and others
MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEMS IN LAWhat do you consider to be the country's most important problem?% of respondents 2004, (unweighted average of all countries)
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Other*
Corruption
Crime/public security
Poverty, inflation or Low wages
Unemployment
Leading global risk factors and contributions to burden of disease (% of disability-adjusted life years lost)
Iron deficiency
High cholesterol
Alcohol
High blood pressure
Underweight infants & mothers
Developing countries Developed countries
Source: United System Standing Committee on Nutrition/ The Lancet, 2004
PoorPoorExtreme PoorExtreme Poor
INCREASE OF POVERTY IN LA (% OF PERSONS)INCREASE OF POVERTY IN LA (% OF PERSONS)
Source: CEPAL, 2004,Source: CEPAL, 2004,b) Data for 2002 and 2003 are projectionsb) Data for 2002 and 2003 are projections
EVOLUTION OF POVERTY IN LA (MILLION OF PERSONS)EVOLUTION OF POVERTY IN LA (MILLION OF PERSONS)
PoorPoorExtreme PoorExtreme Poor
Source: CEPAL, 2004,Source: CEPAL, 2004,b) Data for 2002 and 2003 are projectionsb) Data for 2002 and 2003 are projections
EVOLUTION OF POVERTY IN SOME COUNTRIESEVOLUTION OF POVERTY IN SOME COUNTRIESPovertyPoverty
Extreme PovertyExtreme Poverty
Source: CEPAL, 2004,Source: CEPAL, 2004,a) Urbana) Urban areasareas
PROGRESS IN POVERTY ALLEVIATIONPROGRESS IN POVERTY ALLEVIATION
Source: CEPAL, 2004,Source: CEPAL, 2004,a) Urbana) Urban areasareas
HUNGER, POVERTY AND CHILD-HUNGER, POVERTY AND CHILD-MALNUTRITION: THREE PHENOMENAMALNUTRITION: THREE PHENOMENALINKED TOGETHERLINKED TOGETHER
Extreme poverty (1999)Extreme poverty (1999)UndernourishedUndernourished population (1998-2000)population (1998-2000)ChildrenChildren withwith malnutrition (1995/20019malnutrition (1995/20019
Source: CEPAL, 2004, estimation by CEPAL, basedSource: CEPAL, 2004, estimation by CEPAL, based on Data from FAO and UNICEFon Data from FAO and UNICEF•• Data of extreme poverty in Chile andData of extreme poverty in Chile and MexicoMexico correspondcorrespond toto thethe year 2000,year 2000,
Guatemala, Nicaragua 1998 andGuatemala, Nicaragua 1998 and DominicanDominican Republic 1997Republic 1997
• Malnutrition and hunger are both, part of a complex andinterrelated system of social, agricultural, economic, politicaland ecological realities. In the poor countries, the currentpolicies of high indebtedness with its debt service; thesubstitution of local food cultivation with export commodities,such as vegetables, tropical fruits and flowers, in order to getdevises for debt services; the exploitation of livestock instead ofsubsistence crops; the submission of local and regionalmarkets to the interests of international monopolies; the forcedbankruptcy of small farmers and peasants facing high interestrates, constant increases in agrochemical and other products;the falling prices of their agricultural products, because ofinternational artificial cheap prices (dumping), thanks tosubsidies in industrialized countries, and green revolution andgenetic modified organism imposed by national andtransnational agricultural policy. Also the natural disasters andglobal warming, and the kind of food aid to those countriessouth of the Sahara which prolongs the situation of dependency,expelled peasants from their lands.
• Extreme poverty, better characterized asperverse poverty (Oswald, 1990): theperversity lies in the fact, that a child beforebeing born, is condemned to be a second classcitizen, due to brain damages, caused by thechronically undernourished and anemic mother.Later on, the child enter into the “Valley ofDeath” (Chávez, 1992):1-2 ½ years, because offragile immune system. In case to survive,growth, intellectual improvement and motricityof the child are seriously damaged, due tochronicle hunger.
UNDERNOURISHED POPULATION IN LAUNDERNOURISHED POPULATION IN LAAND CARIBBEAN: 1998-2000AND CARIBBEAN: 1998-2000
55 million55 million ofof thethe populationpopulationin LA andin LA and CarribeanCarribeansuffersuffer fromfrom hungerhunger
% of% of populationpopulation withwith malnutrition 1998-2000malnutrition 1998-2000Source: CEPAL, 2004, estimation by CEPAL, basedSource: CEPAL, 2004, estimation by CEPAL, based on Data from FAOon Data from FAO•• CorrepondantCorrepondant to simple average of 24 countriesto simple average of 24 countries•• CorrepondantCorrepondant toto ponderate average of 24 countriesponderate average of 24 countries
EVOLUTION OF HUNGER BETWEEN 1990-1992EVOLUTION OF HUNGER BETWEEN 1990-1992AND 1998-2000 IN LA AND CARRIBEAN (%)AND 1998-2000 IN LA AND CARRIBEAN (%)
CountriesCountries withwithhigherhigher ratesrates ofofhungerhunger
CountriesCountries withwithdecreasedecrease ofofhungerhunger
Source: CEPAL, 2004, estimation by CEPAL, basedSource: CEPAL, 2004, estimation by CEPAL, based on Data from FAOon Data from FAO•• CorrepondantCorrepondant to 24 countriesto 24 countries
Inequality in FoodInequality in Food Intake: % ofIntake: % of HungryHungry Persons Persons (between 2200 and 2700 kcl(between 2200 and 2700 kcl))
ZoneZone of mayorof mayorimpactimpact of of inequalinequal accessaccess
Source: CEPAL, 2004, on data from FAOSource: CEPAL, 2004, on data from FAO•• Average of 24 countriesAverage of 24 countries•• Initial data 1992-1994Initial data 1992-1994
EvolutionEvolution ofof InequalInequal ConsumptionConsumption ofof FoodFood (1990-1992 and 1998-2000) in LA (1990-1992 and 1998-2000) in LA
CountriesCountries withwithhigerhiger dispersiondispersion in food in food intakeintake
CountriesCountries withwithdisminutiondisminution ofofdispersiondispersion in food in food intakeintake
Co-Co-Effi-Effi-cientcientofofvari-vari-abi-abi-litylityinincalo-calo-ryrycon-con-sump-sump-tiontionperperCa-Ca-pitapitainin1990-1990-19921992
Source: CEPAL, 2004, basedSource: CEPAL, 2004, based on Data from FAO, Haition Data from FAO, Haiti excluded, becauseexcluded, because itsitscoefficientcoefficient gotgot reducedreduced from 0.7 to 0.47from 0.7 to 0.47
MALNUTRITION OF CHILDREN AT THE END OF THE NINTIESMALNUTRITION OF CHILDREN AT THE END OF THE NINTIES
Ponderal insufficiency: 1995/2001Ponderal insufficiency: 1995/2001(Millenium Goals(Millenium Goals forfor hungerhungerreductionreduction))
InsufficiencyInsufficiency ororreduction ofreduction of growth:growth:19981998
CountriesCountries withwith highesthighestlevellevel ofof cronicalcronicalmalnutritionmalnutritionandand lessless progressprogress
% of% of childrenchildren lessless than 5 yearsthan 5 years oldold withwith moderatemoderate andand severeseveregrowthgrowth delaydelay
% of% of childrenchildren lessless than 5 yearsthan 5 years oldold withwith moderatemoderate andand severe severe ponderal sufficencyponderal sufficency
Source: CEPAL, 2004, UNICEF, 1993 and 2003Source: CEPAL, 2004, UNICEF, 1993 and 2003•• CorrepondantCorrepondant to 23 countriesto 23 countries
Source: CEPAL, 2004, BasedSource: CEPAL, 2004, Based on WHO, Art. 4, 2001on WHO, Art. 4, 2001•• Rural AreasRural Areas•• CorrepondantCorrepondant to 19 countriesto 19 countries
CountriesCountries withwith Hunger has LimitedHunger has Limited FoodFood OfferOffer andand StocksStocks
LevelLevel ofof EngergyEngergy SuppySuppy andand IncidenceIncidence ofof MalnutritionMalnutrition
EvolutionEvolution ofof FoodFood Offer in Offer in LatinLatin AmericaAmerica
20 of 24 countries20 of 24 countriesincreasedincreased thethe foodfoodofferoffer duringduring thethelastlast decadedecade
Source: CEPAL, 2004, estimation by CEPAL, basedSource: CEPAL, 2004, estimation by CEPAL, based on Data from FAOon Data from FAO•• CorrepondantCorrepondant toto variabilityvariability ofof foodfood consumption, expressed in kcalconsumption, expressed in kcal//personperson//day inday in
differentdifferent stratusstratus ofof population. Undernourishment are valuespopulation. Undernourishment are values of 0.2,0.25and 0.35,of 0.2,0.25and 0.35,withwith minimalminimal requierementsrequierements of 1,800 kclof 1,800 kcl//perspers//dayday
CountriesCountries withwithhigherhigher inequalityinequality
CountriesCountries withwithreductionreduction ofof inequalityinequality
INCOME DISTRIBUTION DID NOTINCOME DISTRIBUTION DID NOTIMPROVE THE LAST DECADE, ANDIMPROVE THE LAST DECADE, ANDEITHER THE LAST THREE YEARS IN LAEITHER THE LAST THREE YEARS IN LA
Source: CEPAL, 2004,Source: CEPAL, 2004,•• Data fromData from urbanurban areas in Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, Panama, Uruguay; fromareas in Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, Panama, Uruguay; from
Argentina isArgentina is Great Buenos AiresGreat Buenos Aires
SOCIAL EXPENDITURE AS % OF GNP IN LA: IN SOCIAL EXPENDITURE AS % OF GNP IN LA: IN 1990-1991; 1996-1997; 2000-20011990-1991; 1996-1997; 2000-2001
TheThe economic economic stagnationstagnation reduced reduced growthgrowth of of social expenditure social expenditure after 1998after 1998
PublicPublic expenditure as % of GNPexpenditure as % of GNPSource: CEPAL, 2004, DivisionSource: CEPAL, 2004, Division of Social Developmentof Social Developmenta) 16 countries, excluded Bolivia and El Salvadora) 16 countries, excluded Bolivia and El Salvador
LatinLatin AmericaAmericaRateRate ofof annualannual growthgrowth
GNP/capGNP/capSocialSocialExpen./capExpen./cap
CountriesCountrieswithwith hihgerhihgersoc. exp.soc. exp.
Social expendSocial expend increase in Laincrease in Lafromfrom US$ 342 in 1990-1991,US$ 342 in 1990-1991,to $473 in 1996-1997 and,to $473 in 1996-1997 and,540 in 2000-2001540 in 2000-2001
CountriesCountries withwithlowerlower rythmrythm ofofsoc. expendsoc. expend..
CountriesCountries withwithreductionreduction ofofsocialsocialexpenditureexpenditure
Average annualAverage annual raterate of social expenditure/capita between 1991-1997of social expenditure/capita between 1991-1997
AveragAverageeannualannualraterate ofofsocialsocialexpendiexpenditure/capture/capitaitabetweebetween 1991-n 1991-19971997
LatinLatin America (16 Countries): Average ofAmerica (16 Countries): Average ofAnnualAnnual RateRate of Social Expenditure/capitaof Social Expenditure/capitabetween 1991-1997 and 1998-2001between 1991-1997 and 1998-2001
Source: CEPAL, 2004, DivisionSource: CEPAL, 2004, Division of Social Development, Data Base aboutof Social Development, Data Base aboutSocial Expenditure (excluded Bolivia and El Salvador)Social Expenditure (excluded Bolivia and El Salvador)
IncreaseIncrease
IncreaseIncreaseIncreaseIncrease
IncreaseIncrease
IncreaseIncrease
Total socialTotal socialexpenditureexpenditure
Expend. inExpend. inHealthHealth
Exp. inExp. ineducationeducation
Expend. In SocialExpend. In SocialSecuritySecurity andandAssistenceAssistence
Expend. inExpend. inShelter &Shelter &OthersOthers
EvolutionEvolution of Social Expenditure as % ofof Social Expenditure as % ofGDP in LatinGDP in Latin America (16 countriesAmerica (16 countries))
So-So-cialcialEx-Ex-pen-pen-di-di-tu-tu-rereasas%%ofofGDPGDP
After 1998, the bestAfter 1998, the bestprotected sector wasprotected sector waseducation, a cleareducation, a clearindicatorindicator ofofincreasingincreasingimportanceimportance forforexpansionexpansion andandimproveimprove ofof qualityquality
Source: CEPAL, 2004, DivisionSource: CEPAL, 2004, Division of Social Development, Data Base aboutof Social Development, Data Base aboutSocial ExpenditureSocial Expenditure
Social Expend in EducationSocial Expend in EducationSocial Expend in HealthSocial Expend in HealthSoc. Exp. In Social securitySoc. Exp. In Social security andand AssistanceAssistanceGDPGDP
Argentina had a procyclicArgentina had a procyclic charactercharacter of social expenditureof social expenditurein Eduactionin Eduaction andand Health, andHealth, and during 2001-2002 crisis aduring 2001-2002 crisis acountercycliccountercyclic behaviorbehavior toto contrararest social effectscontrararest social effects
RateRateofofAnnualAnnualVaria-Varia-tiontion
Source: CEPAL, 2004, Official Data comingSource: CEPAL, 2004, Official Data coming from Argentinafrom Argentina
WomenWomen
MenMen
ConstructionConstruction Transportation,Transportation,CommunicationCommunication
AgricultureAgriculture IndustryIndustry FinanceFinance SocialSocialservicesservices
CommerceCommercePersonalPersonalServicesServices
TotalTotal
CompositionComposition ofof workers by sex andworkers by sex and activitiesactivities
Source: CEPAL, 2004, Social Panorama 2000-2001, Estimation done on Data fromSource: CEPAL, 2004, Social Panorama 2000-2001, Estimation done on Data from thethe DivisionDivision ofof Population. CentralPopulation. CentralAmericaAmerica andand CaribbeanCaribbean Demography (CELADE, in SpanishDemography (CELADE, in Spanish))
PersonsPersons withoutwithout properproper income by sex, age,income by sex, age,urban-ruralurban-rural
MenMen WomenWomen
Source: CEPAL, 2004, UnitySource: CEPAL, 2004, Unity ofof WomenWomen andand Development, Data Base fromDevelopment, Data Base from TabulationTabulation ofof EnquiryEnquiry ofof Household in eachHousehold in eachCountryCountry
RateRate ofof Unionization in 5 CountriesUnionization in 5 Countries ofofLatinLatin America (2001)America (2001)
Source: CEPAL, 2004, Official Data comingSource: CEPAL, 2004, Official Data coming fromfrom theirtheir CountriesCountries
POVERTY IN HOUSEHOLDS WITH BOTH HUSBANDSPOVERTY IN HOUSEHOLDS WITH BOTH HUSBANDSAND WITH ECONOMIC SUPPORT OF WOMEN (%)AND WITH ECONOMIC SUPPORT OF WOMEN (%)
SuppSupp..WithoutWithoutsuppsupp
Source. CEPAL, 2004, UnitySource. CEPAL, 2004, Unity oror WomenWomen andand DevelopmentDevelopment
Non-Paid Domestic Work, Total Workers, Sex and Urban-Rural
MenMen MenMen MenMen MenMen MenMen MenMenWomenWomen WomenWomen WomenWomen WomenWomen WomenWomen WomenWomen
Total workersTotal workers PaidPaidTotal workersTotal workers PaidPaidDomesticsDomestics withoutwithout paypay DomesticsDomestics withoutwithout paypay
Source: CEPAL, 2004, UnitySource: CEPAL, 2004, Unity ofof WomenWomenandand DevelopmentDevelopment
WomenWomen MenMen
OtherOtherActiviActivi--tiesties
Social,Social,commucommu--niatrianniatrianactivitiesactivities
Non-paidNon-paiddomesticdomesticworkwork
PoorPoor householdhousehold
PaidPaidworkwork
PersonalPersonalActivitesActivites
OtherOtherActiviActivi--tiesties
Social,Social,commucommu--niatrianniatrianactivitiesactivities
Non-paidNon-paiddomesticdomesticworkwork
PaidPaidworkwork
PersonalPersonalActivitesActivites
Non poorNon poor householdhousehold
Source: CEPAL, 2004, ofSource: CEPAL, 2004, of WomenWomen andand Development, NationalDevelopment, National EnquiryEnquiry aboutabout quantificationquantification ofof LifeLifeLevels in Nicaragua, 1998Levels in Nicaragua, 1998
Inequal Time DistributionInequal Time Distribution insideinside ofof thethe HouseholdsHouseholdsin Nicaragua, Poorin Nicaragua, Poor and Non-Poorand Non-Poor FamiliesFamilies
MORE THAN 13 YEARSMORE THAN 13 YEARS
IncomeIncome ofof menmen andand women: total andwomen: total and with morewith morethan 13 yearsthan 13 years ofof instruction (%)instruction (%)
GenderGender Differences in IncomeDifferences in Income
Source: CEPAL, 2004, UnitySource: CEPAL, 2004, Unity ofof WomenWomen andand DevelopmentDevelopment
IndexIndex ofof Women’s Poverty in urban and rural areasWomen’s Poverty in urban and rural areasPoorPoor Non PoorNon Poor
Source: CEPAL, 2004, UnitySource: CEPAL, 2004, Unity ofof WomenWomen andand Development, Data Base fromDevelopment, Data Base from TabulationTabulation ofof EnquiryEnquiry ofof Household in eachHousehold in eachCountryCountry
DIPUTIESDIPUTIES SENATORSSENATORS UNICAMERICALUNICAMERICALDIPUTIESDIPUTIES
Source: CEPAL, 2004, ProgrammSource: CEPAL, 2004, Programm onon WomenWomen andand Development,Development,WomenWomen’’s Leadership, April 2001s Leadership, April 2001
LastLast electionelection
EVOLUTION OF WOMEN IN LEGISLATIVEEVOLUTION OF WOMEN IN LEGISLATIVE
INSTITUTIONS AND CONFIDENCE IN LAFor the groups, institutions or persons in this list, can you tell me how much confidence you have inearch?% responding “a lot” and “some”unweighted average of all countries
0102030405060708090
Church
Military
Presid
ent
Telev
ision
Police
Judic
iary
Congre
ss
Politic
al part
ies
1996* 2003 2004
Source: Latinobarómetro
Source: Latinobarómetro; EIU * By 2004 population + No data
IMPORTANCE OF DEMOCRACYDemocracy is preferable to any other kind of government,% agreeing, in all countries
020
406080
100120140
160180
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Unweighted
Weighted
GOVERNMENT AND DEMOCRACYHow satisfied are you with the way democracy works in your country?% responding “not very satisfied” and “not at all satisfied”
020406080
100
Peru
Paragua
y
Ecuador
Mexico
Bolivia
Argentin
a
Colombia Braz
il
Central
America Chile
Venezue
la
Uruguay
1996 2003 2004
Source: Latinobarómetro
VictimHave you or someone in your family been a victim of crime, or known of an act of corruption or of drug consumption in the past 12 months?% responding "yes" (unweighted average of all countries)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2001 2002 2003 2004
Source: Latinobarómetro
Drug Consumption
Corruption
Vict of crime
Methodology for Evaluation of UN Millenium Goals by CEPAL
• Poverty is a complex social and economic phenomena (CEPAL) and isculturally conditioned.
• Poverty contains “a nucleus of despotic irreductible character” (A. Sen,1983).
• “Poverty is defined as a global value of income shortfall” and to reducepoverty, it is necessary to combine the economic growth with the reductionof income gap inside and between countries, alphabetization, schoolefficiency, health, poverty alleviation programs, employment, productivity,gender equity, overcoming hunger thanks to access to full basic food basket,increase of family monetary income, number of family members, rural-urbanarea and human capital” (CEPAL, 2004:16-23). CEPAL includes also othermeans defined by Forster, Greer & Thorbecke.
• The “isopoverty model” requires first of all reduction of internal gap and theneconomic growth. For instance, Brazil should reduce extreme poverty from 4%to 2%, but would require 86% of economic growth - 4%/ year, equivalentgrowth of the last 20 years- or 48 years within the present conditions. Inorder to reduce in 7 years to a half extreme poverty, Gini index should bereduced by 2.5 (p.37).
• In present conditions, only 7 -Argentina, Chile, Colombia, DominiqueRepublic, Honduras, Panama, Uruguay- from 18 countries in LA will achieveMillenium Goals. Ecuador, Paraguay, Peru and Venezuela –Bolivia and SanSalvador severe problems- have to change their policy.
UN MILLENIUM GOALS TO REDUCE EXTREME POVERTYUN MILLENIUM GOALS TO REDUCE EXTREME POVERTY
ProjectionProjection basedbased onon economiceconomic growthgrowth ofof thethe five best yearsfive best years duringduring thethe periodperiod of 1990-2002of 1990-2002
Source: CEPAL, 2004,Source: CEPAL, 2004,a) Urbana) Urban AreasAreas
Millenium GoalsMillenium Goals forfor ErradicationErradication ofof ChildChildMalnutritionMalnutrition
InfantInfant malnutritionmalnutrition(moderate(moderate--severe ponderal insufficiencysevere ponderal insufficiency
Do notDo notfullfillfullfill
Do notDo not fullfillfullfill
Do fullfillDo fullfillMilleniumMilleniumgoalsgoals
Do fullfillDo fullfillMilleniumMilleniumgoalsgoals
Do fullfillDo fullfillWorld SummitWorld SummitForFor Infants, 1990Infants, 1990
Do fullfillDo fullfillWorldWorldSummitSummitForFor Food,Food,19961996
Source: CEPAL, 2004Source: CEPAL, 2004
COUNTRIES REDUCED SUFFICIENTLY POVERTY COUNTRIES REDUCED SUFFICIENTLY POVERTY BETWEEN 1990 AND 2002 IN ORDER TO ACHIEVEBETWEEN 1990 AND 2002 IN ORDER TO ACHIEVEMILLENIUM GOALSMILLENIUM GOALS
Source: CEPAL, 2004,Source: CEPAL, 2004,a) Urbana) Urban AreasAreas
PossibilitiesPossibilities toto Achieve MilleniumAchieve MilleniumGoalsGoals forfor ErradicatonErradicaton ofof HungerHunger
CountriesCountries withwithIncreaseIncrease ofofhunger (%)hunger (%)
CountriesCountries withwithdecreasedecreasein hunger (%)in hunger (%)
CountriesCountries ableabletoto fullfill Milleniumfullfill Millenium Goals Goals forfor HungerHunger
% of% of malnourishedmalnourished persons in 1990-1992persons in 1990-1992
Source: CEPAL, 2004, estimation by CEPAL, basedSource: CEPAL, 2004, estimation by CEPAL, based on Data from FAOon Data from FAO•• CorrepondantCorrepondant to 24 countriesto 24 countries•• Blue color indicates, thatBlue color indicates, that thisthis countriescountries willwill alsoalso fulfillfulfill goalsgoals established by FAOestablished by FAO
Esti-Esti-ma-ma-ted %ted %ofofpopu-popu-lationlationwithwithMal-Mal-Nutri-Nutri-tiontioninin20152015
49.64--TOTAL
257Poverty, infant death 15
2.4-2.4External and internal debt service 14
0.300.3Public Deficit 13
2.24.87.0Educational inefficiency, 12
1.40.62.0Science and Technology, brain drain 11
0.8800.88Foreign Enterprises capital return 10
2.102.1Tax debts, discretional arrangementsand legal fault 9
51520Tax Evasion 8
0.860.861.73Trusts (out of official control) 7
6.81.2%8.0%Dubious Privatizations and later rescuewith public funds 6
2.55.88.3Excessive Public Administration 5
6.70.26.9Corruption 4
5.00.55.5Crime, violence 3
7.010.0(1983)
3.0(2003)
Reduction in Public Investment 2
4.56.511.0Environment 1
GDP Loss in Mexico
[1 SEMARNAT, 2004, Include oil extraction minus reinvestment; deforestation, loss of biodiversity, natural disaster; erosion, waterpollution, aquifer depletion and pollution, waste and hazardous waste[2 INEGI, 1983 and 2004[3 Estimated by Citizen Council against Violence, 2004[4 World Bank, estimations 2003[5 Estimations based on: Budget adjustment obliged by Congress: Pension to 9,300 minor employee and only 0.009% of high, levelfunctionaries equivalent to 84,000 official jobs of minor category, increase of personal services by executive during 2003/2004: 11.8%[6 World Bank, and Congress 1998-2004[7 Estimations based on National Lottery, Vamos Mexico, SSA, Congress, 2004[8 Estimations, based on data from SHCP, FMI, 2004, estimated informal economy represents 12% GDP and does not pay any tax,formal unemployment 612,209 persons in December 2000 to 1,092’692 persons in June 2004 (increase of 78.5% in 3 ½ years, plus1.2 million new labour force /year. 1% of GDP creates 200,000 new employments (Mario Di Constanza, August, 2004)[9 SHCP, FMI, World Bank, 2004[10 FMI and INEGI, 2004[11 Estimations based on data and estimations from CONACYT, Congress, INEGI, 2004[12 Estimation based on data from SEP, 2004, INEGI, 2004, World Bank, 2004, UNDP, 2004[13 Congress, SHCP, 2004[14 SHCP, Bank of Mexico, FMI, 2004, during the first semester 2004: 88,844.1 million pesos MN paid for internal (33054.7 millionMN) and external (36,838 pesos MN) debt, other debt services: 18,951.4 million pesos MN[15 Estimation based on data from SEDESOL, Presidential Information, UNDP, World Bank, 2004
100643,360Total GDP in million dollars
0.2GDP growth/capita: 2000-2004
1.5/yearGDP growth 2000-2004
3.0(estimated)
GDP growth 2004
68.4440.06Services (2003)
26.0167,27Industrial Sector (2003)
5.636.03Primary Sector (2003)
10.667.98Pensions (AFORE, 2003)
1.328,500Tourism
18.0115,810Exportation of 10 MNE
3.8925,000Money Laundry
0.956,100Oil
15.096,504Taxes: Incomes
0.42,651Foreign Direct Investment
2.114,000Migrants
% GDPIncomeEstimated Incomes in 2004and 2003
[1 Estimations based on Bank of Mexico and INEGI, 2004[2 SHCP, 2004 and Institute for Foreign Investment[3 SHCP, Consumption Tax 3.5% of GDP; salaries of employed 56% (increase in 1 year: 14.9%); taxes of enterprises 44% (with121,000 million pesos of fiscal credit and 29, 598 million pesos not posible to cash, 24,910 legally protected and lost forgovernment[4 PEMEX and Bank of Mexico, 2004 (estimated by exportation between January and June)[5 FMI, 2004, Leopoldo Solis, a recognized researchers estimates more than 45,000 million[6 Mexican tourism outside of the country: 6,100 md giving a real balance of 2,800 million dollars[7 INEGI, 2003[8 Estimated by Bank of Mexico,2004 and revised by FMI and CEPAL
s.d.14.215’700,000Less than 1,000 pesos
s.d.14.616’027,000More than 1,000 pesos
630.0773,481More than 1 Million pesos
% of NationalSaving
% of Mexican populationNumber of bank accountsAccount
Bank of Mexico, 2004
Bank Savings
Social Gap in Mexico
Social Gap in Mexico
10.018.452.7Workers
78.040.30.23Very Rich
% of FinancialSavings
% of Nat. Wealth% of PopulationConcept
INEGI, 2004 and Bank of Mexico, 2004
Natural Risks in Mexico: Volcanoes, Flood, Hurricanes, Seism, Landslides
2931.9Very Low
1314.3Low
2224.2Regular
1011.0High
2628.6Very high
% of PopulationAffected
Persons(millions)
Grade of Risk
Ministry of Interior, 2004
Risk of Hurricans
5156.1Very Low
2022Low
99.9Regular
1213.2High
88.8Very high
% of PopulationAffected
Persons(millions)
Grade of Risk
Ministry of Interior, 2004
Basic HumanRights : Life
Health
Food
Shelder
Education
SexEmployment
Sustainable environment
Free PrehisionsExpression
NonviolentConflict
Resolution
Basic HumanRights: Life
Health
Food
Shelder
Education
SexEmployment
Sustainable environment
Free PrehisionsExpression
NonviolentConflict
Resolution
EquityEquity
SustainabilitySustainability
JusticeJustice
DemocracyDemocracy
VulnerabilityVulnerability
RisksRisks
PeacePeaceBiodiversityBiodiversity
Conflict &Conflict &ChangesChanges