5th international geo-hazards research symposium · ching-chou fu, ies arvind kumar, ncree ......

5th

International Geo-hazards Research Symposium

-in memory of Prof. Tsanyao Frank Yang

Program Book

5th

International Geo-hazards Research Symposium -in memory of Prof. Tsanyao Frank Yang

Organized by: Ministry of Science and Technology

National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction

National Center for Research on Earthquake Engineering

Department of Geosciences, National Taiwan University

Co-organized by: Industrial Technology Research Institute

Institute of Earth Sciences, Academia Sinica

Taiwan Earthquake Research Center

Central Weather Bureau

Central Geological Survey

National Central University

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Prof. Sheng-Rong Song

Conference Chair

National Taiwan University

Taipei 106, Taiwan

Tel: +8862-33662938; Fax: +8862-23636095

E-mail: [email protected]

Dr. Vivek Walia

Conference Co Chair

National Center for Research on Earthquake

Engineering

Taipei 106, Taiwan

Tel: +886-2-6630-0575

E-mail:[email protected]

[email protected]

International Organizing Committee

Chairman

Taiwan Sheng-Rong Song

Members

Germany Thomas Streil

Greece Elpiniki Pomoni

India R. C. Ramola

Italy Antonio Caprai

Japan Yuji Sano

Philippines Manuel Ogena

Saudi Arabia Sedat Inan

Spain Luis S.Q Poncela

Taiwan Kuo-Chun Chang

Taiwan Kuo-Fong Ma

Taiwan Sun-Lin Chung

Turkey Galip Yüce

USA Friedemann Freund

National Organizing Committee

Sheng-Rong Song, NTU

Vivek Walia, NCREE (NARL)

Wei-Sen Li, NCDR

Kuo-Lang Wen, NCREE (NARL)

Cheng-Horng Lin, IES

Muo-Hua Tang, NTU

Jyr-Ching Hu, NTU

Pei-Shan Hsieh, ITRI

Ching-Chou Fu, IES

Arvind Kumar, NCREE (NARL)

Jia-Jyun Dong, NCU

Kae-Shyuan Shieh, CGS

Chiun-lin Wu, NCREE (NARL)

Conference Sectariats

Chao-Yi Chen (NTU), Chyi Chris Wang (NTU), Tingyeh Wu (NCDR), Monika Walia (NTU)

mailto:[email protected]

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Program at a Glance

Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday

Morning Program Program Program

Afternoon Program Program Program Field

Excursion

Evening Ice Breaker

Banquet

Dinner

Discussion

and Closing

The Registration desk will be open on Sunday, Oct. 16, 2016, at the venue of Ice-Breaker in the Department of Geosciences, NTU and from Monday to Wednesday at the Conference Venue at the 15th floor of the Union Development Building.

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Schedule and Technical Program

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October, 2016 – Sunday

16:00 - 18:00 Registration

18:00 - 20:00 Ice Breaker

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October, 2016 – Monday

08:30 - 09:00 Registration

09:00 - 09:30 Inauguration

Session 1- Chairmen: Sheng-Rong Song and Thomas Streil

09:30-10:10 Keynote address - 1 Cheng-Hong Chen: An enthusiast on pursuing the application of rare gas geochemistry

Group Photo + Coffee Break 10:10-10:30 10:30-11:10 Keynote address - 2 Harsh K. Gupta: Earthquakes: How to cope with them

Session 2- Chairmen: Bor-Shouh Huang and R. C. Ramola

11:10-11:35 Invited Talk - 1 Hidemi Tanaka: Hydrological characteristics of the Kamishiro fault deduced from fluid discharge by 2014 North-Nagano earthquake 11:35-12:30 Oral Presentations - 1, 2, 3 Oral-1 Galip Yüce*, Hardy Pfanz, Ahmet H. Gülbay, Ali Gökgöz and Francesco D’Andria: High CO2 and radon degassing along the fault/fracture zones in UNESCO World Heritage Site: Hierapolis (Pamukkale), Turkey Oral-2 Shigeyuki Suzuki* and Makoto Nishigaki: Landslide and debris flow hazards of the Hiroshima Granite area in southern Okayama Prefecture, Western Japan Oral-3 Jeen-Hwa Wang*, Kou-Cheng Chen, Peih-Lin Leu, and Chien-Hsin Chang: Precursor Times of b-value Anomalies prior to Mainshocks

Lunch 12:30-13:30

Session 3- Chairmen: Fedora Quattrocchi and Vivek Walia 13:30-13:55 Invited Talk - 2 Kuo-Fong Ma: Investigation on fluid migration activity after earthquakes: case study for 1999 M7.6 Chi-Chi and 2016 M6.4 Meinong, Taiwan, earthquakes 13:55-14:20: Invited Talk - 3 Thomas Streil : Gas geochemical precursors and chance for the forecast of Earthquakes and Volcanic eruption 14:20-15:30 Oral Presentations - 4, 5, 6, 7 Oral-4 Himanshu Mittal,* Yih-Min Wu, Cédric P Legendre and Benjamin M. Yang: Shake maps for Uttarakhand Himalayas, India Oral-5 Pei-Shan Hsieh*, Wayne Lin and Cheng-Kuo Lin: Natural factor effects on high-level radioactive waste

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geological disposal in Taiwan Oral-6 (YS)- Manish Kumar*, Navjeet Sharma and Amit Sarin: Prediction of Indoor Radon/Thoron Concentration in a Model Room Based on the Exhalation Rates from Different Building Materials Oral-7 Arvind Kumar*, Vivek Walia,

Tsanyao Frank Yang, Shih-Jung Lin, Cheng-Hong Chen

and Kuo-Liang Wen:

Use of solid state nuclear track detector for integrated radon –thoron monitoring in Tatun Volcanic Areas of Northern Tawan

Coffee Break 15:30-15:50

Session 4- Chairmen: Tsuneomi Kagiyama and Cheng-Horng Lin 15:50-16:15 Invited Talk - 4 David R. Hilton*, Tyler Evans, Carlos Ramirez, Justin T. Kulongoski and Peter H. Barry: Helium and CO2 systematics of the San Andreas Fault System, California, USA 16:15-16:40: Invited Talk - 5 Paramesh Banerjee: Indian Plate Boundaries and Earthquake Vulnerabilities: An overview of Initiatives and Results originating from the Earth Observatory of Singapore 16:40-17:50 Oral Presentations - 8, 9, 10, 11 Oral-8 (YS) Poonam Semwal*, Kuldeep Singh, G. S. Gusain Manish Joshi and R. C. Ramola: Seasonal Dependencies of Indoor Radon and Thoron Decay Product Concentration for Almora District of Kumaon Himalaya Region, India Oral-9 Shou-Yeh Gong* and Han-Wei Lin: Multiple severe typhoons in recent history as revealed by coral boulders on coasts of northwestern Luzon, Philippines Oral-10 Min-Chien Tsai*: The study of 2016 Meinong earthquake by crustal deformation, seismicity and strain rate in southwestern Taiwan Oral-11 (YS) Cédric P. Legendre*, Tai-Lin Tseng, Himanshu Mittal, Che-Hao Hsu, Arkadiy Karakhanyan, Tea Godoladze and Bor-Shouh Huang: First Peak Ground Velocity Maps in the Caucasus Area 18

th October, 2016 – Tuesday

Session 5- Chairmen: Galip Yüce and Hongey Chen

09:00-09:40 Keynote address - 3 Fausto Guzzetti: Towards operational forecasting of rainfall induced landslides 09:40-10:20 Keynote address - 4 Tsuyoshi Takada: Holistic Approach for Seismic Risk Reduction based on the 2011 Fukushima Dai-ichi NPP Accident

Coffee Break 10:20-10:40

Session 6- Chairmen: Shigeyuki Suzuki and Jeen-Hwa Wang

10:40-11:05: Invited Talk - 6 Orlando Vaselli*, Franco Tassi, Chiara Caponi, Lorenzo Tempesti, Giovanni Chiodini, Stefano Caliro, Mariano Agusto, Alberto Caselli and Caterina Liccioli: The Geothermal Field of Domuyo (Patagonia, Argentina): a fluid Geochemical and Isotopic Point of View 11:05-11:30: Invited Talk - 7 Rakesh C. Ramola: Radiological Risk Associated with Radon, Thoron and Progeny in Indoor Environment

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11:30-12:25: Oral Presentations - 12, 13, 14 Oral-12 Ajay Kumar* and Raman Vij: Radon and Uranium concentration in drinking water sources lying in the region of fault line passing through Reasi, Jammu and Kashmir, Himalayas, India Oral-13 Vivek Walia*, Arvind Kumar, Shih-Jung Lin, Kuo-Liang Wen, Kuang-Wu Chou, Ching-Chou Fu, Tsanyao Frank Yang and Cheng-Hong Chen: Radon a potential tool for earthquake precursory studies in Taiwan Oral-14 Wen-Yau Chen*, Tso-Ren Wu, Ray-Yeng Yang and Hwung-Hweng Hwung: Basal Coulomb Friction Lubrictes Submarine Landslide and Affects the Tsunamis Generated by the Landslide

Lunch 12:25-13:30

Session 7- Chairmen: Hidemi Tanaka and Chiun-Lin Wu

13:30-13:55 Invited Talk - 8 Lap-Loi Chung: Performance of Buildings at 0206 Earthquake 13:55-14:20 Invited Talk - 9 Shuichi Hasegawa* and Atsuko Nonomura: Hazard mapping of earthquake-induced deep-seated catastrophic landslides by airborne resistivity data 14:20-15:30 Oral Presentations - 15, 16, 17, 18 Oral-15 (YS) Mukesh Prasad*, Peter Bossew, Rosaline Mishra and R. C. Ramola: Dose estimation derived from the exposure to radon, thoron and progeny in the indoor environment Oral-16 H. K. Jhuang*, Y. Y. Ho, C. C. Fu, L. C. Lee and J. Y. Liu: TEC anomalies before earthquakes and their asymmetry between northern and southern ionospheres Oral-17 Fedora Quattrocchi *: Use of geochemical and environmental transient processes to possibly forecast earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, gas burst in geothermal and hydrocarbons field: 25 years of activities in Italy in technical and geoethic framework Oral-18 Ramesh Chandra Tiwari*, Sanjay Singh, Raghavendra Prasad Tiwar and H. P. Jaishi: Time series analysis of soil radon-thoron anomaly as possible precursor to seismic events

Coffee Break + Poster Session 15:30-16:00

(Chairmen: Ramesh Chandra Tiwari and Min-Chien Tsai)

Session 8- Chairmen: David R. Hilton and Pei-Shan Hsieh

16:00-16:25 Invited Talk - 10 Yoshio Takahashi*: Migration of radionuclides in land-surface in Fukushima: mechanisms of secondary transport 16:25-16:50 Invited Talk - 11 Yuji Sano: Helium anomaly related to phreatic eruption 16:50-17:45 Oral Presentations - 19, 20, 21 Oral-19 B. S. Huang*, W.G. Huang, C. J. Lin, H. C. Chiu and C. C. Liu: Estimation for ground rotation, dynamic strain from near source seismic array during large earthquakes Oral-20 Wei-Tze Chang*: Modelling Rockfall Catchfence System with Coupled Continuous-discontinuous Simulation Environment Oral-21 (YS) Preeti Pant, Tushar Kandari, Mukesh Prasad, Poonam Semwal, Anoop Dangwal and R. C. Ramola: A Comparative study of active and passive techniques for the measurement of radon and thoron progeny in Pithoragarh district of Kumaun Himalaya

Banquet 18:30-21:00

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19

th October, 2016 – Wednesday

Session 9- Chairmen: Haibing Li and Tingyeh Wu

09:00-09:25 Invited Talk - 12 Haibing Li*, Huan Wang and Jialiang Si: Correlation between faulting processes, fault zones structure and geo-hazards triggered by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, western China 09:25-09:50 Invited Talk - 13 Cheng-Horng Lin: Seismological Evidence of Plumping System beneath Tatun Volcano Group, Northern Taiwan 09:50-10:45 Oral Presentations - 22, 23, 24 Oral-22 Hsiao-fen Lee*, Cheng-Horng Lin, Tefang Lan, Tsanyao Frank Yang, Hsin-Yi Wen and Hsin-Chieh Pu: Volcanic Gas Compositions of the Tatun Volcano Group, Taiwan: Insights into Gas Origin, Temporal and Spatial Variation Oral-23 Jia-Jyun Dong*: Rapid Hazard Assessment of Landslide Dam - A Review Oral-24 Miroslaw Janik*: Is radon a good earthquake predictor?



Session 10- Chairmen: Yuji Sano and Jia-Jyun Dong

11:05-11:30 Invited Talk - 14 Gee-Yu Liu*: Seismic Hazard Assessment for Earthquake Loss Estimation 11:30-11:55 Invited Talk - 15 Wei-Sen Li: Reflections on the Kaohsiung Earthquake on February 6

th, 2016, in Taiwan

11:55-12:30 Oral Presentations - 25, 26 Oral-25 Dinesh Kumar Sharma* and Ajay Kumar: Study of radon gas in soil and underground water and its co-relation with regional geology of Nurpur area, district Kangra, Himachal Pradesh, India Oral-26 Vinod Kumar Kushwah*, Rudraksh Tiwari and M. S. Gaur: A new approach for detection of seismic signal using dielectric properties of deep rooted trees

Lunch 12:30 – 13:30

Session 11- Chairmen: Orlando Vaselli and Arvind Kumar

13:30-13:55 Invited Talk - 16 Tsuneomi Kagiyama*, Shin Yoshikawa and Mitsuru Utsugi: Emission rate of magmatic volatiles from Aso Caldera inferred from electrical conductivity distribution -For preparing low-frequency large eruption 13:55-15:30 Oral Presentations - 27, 28, 29,30, 31 Oral-27 Ajay Kumar Mahur*, R. Kumar, R. G. Sonkawade, B. P. Singh and Rajendra Prasad: An investigation of natural radioactivity and radon exhalation rate in soil samples from some areas of Jharkhand State of India Oral-28 Ching-Chou Fu*, Lou-Chuang Lee, Peng-Kang Wang, Cheng-Horng Lin, Tsanyao Frank Yang, Tsung-Kwei Liu, Cheng-Hong Chen, Vivek Walia, Tzu-Hua Lai, Gioacchino Giuliani and Dimitar Ouzounov: Temporal changes in gas geochemistry and gamma rays as a precursor of the 2016 M6.6 Meinong earthquake in southern Taiwan Oral-29 Tingyeh Wu*, Hsin-Chi Li, Yung-Ming Chen: Impact Assessments for Debris Flow and River Discharge under Extreme Climate Scenario Oral-30 Ming-Chun Ke and Wei Lo: Preliminary Study on Generation Period of Clastics With Historic Landslide Events

http://www.earth.sinica.edu.tw/people/linch_e.html

http://www.earth.sinica.edu.tw/people/Postdoc_PuHC_e.htm

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Oral-31 Anil Sharma*, Ajay Kumar Mahur and R. G. Sonkawade: Measurement of radon exhalation rate, natural radioactivity and radiation doses in fly ash samples



15:50 - 17:30 Discussion and Closing Ceremony

20

th October, 2016 – Thursday

9:00 - 17:00 Field Excursion

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IGRS Presidential Message for the 2016 Conference in Taiwan

Friedemann Freund

In December of 2014 we held our regular IGRS Conference at the NASA Ames Research Park in Northern California. I had the honor and privilege to greet many of you attending this meeting. At the end of August 2015 Professor Thomas Streil, founder of IGRS, celebrated 10 successful years of our society by convening a meeting in Dresden, Germany, which I was able to attend. I had been looking forward to come to Taiwan for this 2016 IGRS Conference, especially since it is inextricably linked to the memory of Professor Tsanyao Frank Yang, whose life was taken away by the same infliction – cancer – that had wiped out the life of my son Mino a few short years before. I am happy to acknowledge the work by Professor Sheng-Rong Song and Dr. Vivek Walia with their dedicated team who took over the organization of the 5th IGRS Conference. I am also bowing in respect and gratitude to Professor Manuel Ogena, who had been standing by to organize the event in the Philippines. Unfortunately I am not able to attend your Conference due to a self-inflicted over commitment on my time. As many of you know I have been working on deciphering the signals that the Earth sends out before major earthquakes. Our friends in seismology have for more than a hundred years tried – but failed – to predict earthquakes on the basis of mechanical physics. I am in the lucky position to have discovered certain properties of rocks, electrical and electromagnetic, which allow us to approach the question of earthquake forecasting from a different, much more comprehensive perspective. We have now reached a point where can say with a high degree of confidence that this approach opens new opportunities to recognize – and correctly interpret – the bewildering multitude of signals prior to major seismic events. I wish I could share with you in person the excitement that comes with this progress that is central to the goals of IGRS. However, I can only do it remotely via this heart-felt message. I wish you all a successful and productive meeting in the spirit of broad cross disciplinary collaboration, past, present and future. Friedemann Freund California October 2016.

Friedemann Freund California October 2016

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Keynotes

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An enthusiast on pursuing the application of rare gas geochemistry

Cheng-Hong Chen Department of Geosciences, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan

[email protected]

ABSTRACT

This is in memory of Dr. Tsanyao Frank Yang, who passed away on March 12, 2015 at an age of 54. He was a Professor at the Department of Geosciences, National Taiwan University. Prof. Frank Yang started with his study in hard-rock geochemistry with me and became a pioneer in the field of Gas Geochemistry in Taiwan. He finished his doctoral training at Department of Geosciences, National Taiwan University and later served the institute for more than 20 years. He became a faculty member at NTU in 1991 as Assistant Professor, later promoted as Associate Professor, and then Professor and served at this position for almost 10 years. In between he worked in various international and national universities/institutes as: Postdoctoral Research fellow (Department of Marine Chemistry and Geochemistry, Woods Hole Oceanography Institution, USA), Visiting Scholar (Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Osaka University, Japan), Adjunct Research Fellow (National Center for Research on Earthquake Engineering, NARL, Taiwan) and Visiting Professor (Universities of Japan and USA). Prof. Frank Yang was a brilliant down-to-earth scientist. In his early days of research career, he almost risked his life in doing geological surveys on nearly twenty volcanic islets, the Batanes and Babuyans, between Taiwan and Luzon where no geologists had ever conducted any survey before. The vehicle carrying them between islands in the rough Basi Channel was only a little bit more than a motored raft. Through the detailed works on the samples collected, he was able to identify double arcs for these island chains based on the fission track dating of zircon and apatite as well as trace element geochemistry and Sr and Nd isotopes and proposed a tectonic model for the formation of the North Luzon Arc that extend from East Coastal Range of Taiwan to northern Luzon. After the postdoctoral research fellow training at the Department of Marine Chemistry and Geochemistry, Woods Hole Oceanography Institution, USA (with Dr. Mark Kurz), he was interested in knowing the processes related to volcanic activities through the gases emanated from the earth’s interior. He then managed to set up a new laboratory, named as Gas Geochemistry (GG) Lab in this department focusing on the rare gases such as Helium and Radon. Based on a detailed He-isotope reconnaissance in the volcanic area in northern Taiwan, he advocated that the Tatun Volcano Group close to the metropolitan Taipei could be a composite of a group of active volcanoes. This provided a fundamental knowledge for the geohazard mitigation aside from the well-focused earthquakes on the megacity and the nuclear power plants in the vicinity. Mainly combining the real-time geochemical and geophysical monitoring of this volcanic area, the Tatun Volcanic Observatory (TVO) was able to be inaugurated in the year of 2011. Currently, a Network of soil-gas Monitoring stations for Earthquake Precursory, composed 6 stations from CGS (Central Geological Survey) and 3 stations from NCREE (National

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Center for Research in Earthquake Engineering), is also in operation in Taiwan. This country launched a national energy project (NEP) some years ago. The Phase I (2010-2014) was more or less an overview of the strength from this country and the Phase II (2015-2019) had set a target for industrialization on some designated specific items. Prof. Yang was not only involved in the NEP-I study as the originator of many daring ideas, but also further chosen as the coordinator of “Geothermal energy and gas hydrate focus center”, one of the six centers of NEP-II. This demonstrates that he has the ability to communicate with colleagues in the relevant fields. To reach such goals, he planned a number of international collaboration aiming to breakthrough barriers on energy explorations in relevance. He possessed all the very best qualities of a university professor and believed that research should have the value. With his researches always address significant issues and adopt an interdisciplinary and comparative approach, he is deeply memorized by colleagues and many are willing to contribute in the recent special issues of scientific journals such as Journal of Asian Earth Sciences and Terrestrial, Atmospheric, and Oceanic Sciences on his tribute. Also for these reasons, he actively joined many international meetings and conferences and, reciprocally, organized some here in Taiwan. The 5th IGRS meeting this time is one of his earlier commitments to the international scientific communities and was a founder member of the Society (International Geo-Hazards Research Society) established in Dresden Germany in May 2007. Keeping in mind his commitment towards the society during IGRS2014 at the NASA Ames Research Center in California, USA, he was elected to be the next IGRS President and to hold the next IGRS 2016 Conference in Taiwan. For me he was a friend, colleague and collaborator. I feel a deep sense of gratitude for him as I have been one of the active promoters representing governmental agency not only for the NEP-I but also for the TVO.

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Earthquakes: How to cope with them

Harsh K. Gupta

National Geophysical Research Institute, Hyderabad 500007, India [email protected]

ABSTRACT

Earthquakes are one of the worst natural calamities. In the recorded history, millions of human lives are lost and the economic losses amount to 100s of billion dollars. We are in the 16th year of the 21st Century and the human lives lost in this short span, has already exceeded the total lives lost in the entire 20th Century due to earthquakes. In this talk two important developments shall be presented. The first and the foremost is the generation of earthquake awareness and building earthquake scenarios. As is known, earthquakes repeat where they had occurred earlier. The Himalayan seismic belt has been very active. During a short span of 53 years, from 1897 through 1950, 4 great earthquakes (M~8) occurred. These are the Shillong (1897), Kangra (1905), Bihar-Nepal (1934) and the Assam (1950) earthquakes. No such earthquake has occurred since then. This has given a false sense of security. It is helpful to generate earthquake scenarios and share this knowledge with the public. An important aspect is the safety of the life line buildings. Example of a recent scenario building and mega-mock drill for the repeat of the M 8.7 Shillong earthquake is presented. It is found that occurrence of an M 8.7 earthquake near Shillong could claim ~900000 human lives. The second development is the successful deployment of the Early Tsunami Warning System by India. The tsunami generated by the 26th December 2004 Mw 9.2 Sumatra earthquake is the deadliest ever recorded having claimed over 250,000 human lives. About 15,000 human lives were lost in India. Tsunami amplitudes of 4.5 m and 3.2 m were recorded at Port Blair and Chennai. India took up establishing a modern Indian Tsunami Early Warning System (ITEWS) in March 2005 and it was totally operational by August 2007. Since then it has been functioning uninterrupted and is capable of giving tsunami advisories for an under sea earthquake of Mw 6.5 or larger occurring any where in the Indian Ocean in less than 10 minutes time. ITEWS receives data from about 350 seismic stations; tide-gauge data from 300 stations and data from 50 tsunami buoys, spread all over the world. A large data-base of pre-run models has been created at the computational center. To pick up the closest scenario for an earthquake, a dedicated decision support system has been developed at ITEWS. In the Indian Ocean there are only two known sources capable of hosting a tsunamigenic earthquake. The first is the seismic belt between Sumatra and Andaman (~4000 km) and the second is an area (~1000 km) off Makaran Coast in the Arabian Sea. A special feature of ITEWS is the operation of ocean bottom pressure recorders covering these two- tsunamigenic earthquake zones. This helps in avoiding false alarms. Details of ITEWS are presented here.

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Towards operational forecasting of rainfall induced landslides

Fausto Guzzetti

CNR IRPI – Research Institute for Geo-Hydrological Protection (IRPI), of the Italian National Research Council (CNR), Perugia, Italy

[email protected] ABSTRACT In Italy, landslides occur every year, claiming lives and producing severe economic and environmental damage. Most of the landslides with human or economic consequences are the result of intense or prolonged rainfall. For this reason, predicting the occurrence of rainfall-induced landslides in Italy is of scientific interest and societal relevance. In 2008, the Italian National Department of Civil Protection, an office of the Prime Minister, asked the Istituto di Ricerca per la Protezione Idrogeologica, of the Italian Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, to design, implement and manage a prototype, operational early-warning system capable of forecasting the possible occurrence of rainfall-induced landslides in Italy. To respond to the challenge, we performed scientific and technological activities that have resulted in SANF, an Italian acronym for National Early Warning System for Rainfall Induced Landslides. For the purpose, we first searched multiple sources to collect information on more than 2300 rainfall events with landslides in Italy from 2002 to 2014. The effort resulted in a unique catalogue of rainfall induced landslides in Italy. Next, we designed methods and developed software for the objective, semi-automatic definition of (i) rainfall events and rainfall events with landslides from rainfall records and our catalogue of rainfall induced landslides, and (ii) rainfall thresholds and their associated uncertainty from quantitative measures of the rainfall events that have resulted in landslides, including rainfall duration D (in hours), cumulated event rainfall E (in mm), and mean event rainfall intensity I (in mm/hour). We further devised and tested strategies for the use of the thresholds in the landslide early-warning system, and the evaluation of the performance of the system. SANF exploits (i) cumulated rainfall – rainfall duration (ED) thresholds for the possible occurrence of landslides, (ii) sub-hourly rainfall measurements obtained from a national network of more than 2000 rain gauges in Italy, (iii) quantitative rainfall forecasts obtained from a numerical local area meteorological model, and (iv) a synoptic-scale landslide susceptibility zonation, to issue three forecasts. The three complementary forecasts are issued every hour for the next 24 hours, and are prepared (i) using solely the rainfall measured obtained by the rain gauges, (ii) using solely the quantitative rainfall forecasts, and (iii) merging the rainfall measurements and forecasts, weighted by the synoptic landslide susceptibility assessment. SANF was able to hind-cast all the 52 fatal landslide events in Italy from 2002 and 2012. We consider this a measure of the good performance of the system. In an effort to improve the current ability to forecast rainfall induced landslides, we have developed a regional version of the early warning system named SARF, an Italian acronym for Regional Early Warning System for Rainfall Induced Landslides, and we are further

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experimenting tools for the near-real time monitoring of the rainfall conditions that can result in landslides. In the talk, in addition to presenting SANF, SARF and the new tools for the near-real time monitoring of rainfall conditions that can result in landslides, we discuss concepts and limitations inherent to the evaluation of the performances of landslide early warning systems, and conceptual and operational problems related to the issuing of landslide forecasts.

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Holistic approach for seismic risk reduction based on the 2011 Fukushima Dai-ichi NPP accident

Tsuyoshi Takada

Professor of School of Engineering, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan [email protected]

ABSTRACT One of the major lessons learned from the 2011 Fukushima Dai-ich NPP accident is the need of implementation of appropriate risk management based on defense-in-depth (DiD) concept (IAEA, 1996). Figure 1, according to the report of Japanese Nuclear Regulatory Authority (NRA), shows the fractural accident progress of the Fukushima Dai-ichi Unit 1, and it indicates how several defense systems became to fail. This accident is understood that it was triggered by an earthquake and tsunami, and various barriers failed sequentially, lost all electricity for cooling the core and finally radioactive materials had released outside the containment vessel. Since natural hazards like earthquakes and tsunamis occur with large uncertainty in terms of when, where and how such events occur, adequate safety management of NPPs against natural hazards must be implemented with great emphasis on that underlying uncertainty should be appropriately recognized and be properly treated. Since the accident, toward reduction of the risk, several levels and ranges of diversified countermeasures have been considered and been implemented into practice at all existing NPPs to get permission from NRA to restart in Japan. Although these countermeasures can enhance the plant safety considerablely, there is seemingly no over all consistency among those countermeasures such as strengthening seismic design criteria, implementation of thicker accident management, site emergency plan after reactor accidents, including decommissioning of existing plants. All the countermeasures relevant to NPP safety should be consistent from overall safety assurance of NPP and mutually complementary to enhance safety level. In this lecture, firstly, the lessons learned from the accident will be summarized, and then current activities on countermeasures for enhancing the safety of existing NPPs in Japan will be reported. Based on the above, a new arpproach overlooking all safety enhancement countermeasures will be focused. Figure 1 (JAEE, 2015) shows a multi-stage risk maganement scheme in a risk curve, where three domains; design, beyond design and disaster mitigation, are defined to ensure the overall safety of NPP. Some of implementation cases based on the approach in Japan will be demonstrated, and finaly relevant challenges will be addressed for future improvement. Risk concept, common-cause failure, levels of DiD, performance goals for each level will be intensively discussed. REFERENCES IAEA (1996), Defence in Depth in Nuclear Safety INSAG-10, 1996

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NRA (Japan Nuclear Reguratory Authority) , home page JAEE (2015), Tsunami Resistant Engineering for Nuclear Safety – Toward an Integrated Framework for Earthquake-Tsunami Protection, Japan Association for Earthquke Engineering

(i) Loss of off-site power due to earthquake

(ii) Damage and loss of on-site power due to tsunami

+15m

Spent fuel pool

Breakwater wall

Emergency

generator Switchboards

Height of tsunami

(iii) Loss of cooling

↓

(iv) Core damage

↓

(v) Generation of

hydrogen

↓

(vi) Leakage of hydrogen

(Loss of containment integrity)

Progression of severe accident due　to loss of

safety functions

Simultaneous loss of all safety functions as common cause failures due to earthquake and tsunami

(vii) Hydrogen

explosion

Sea water pump

Batteries

Figure 1 Progression of Accident (NRA)

Risk Reduction Domain

Risk Retention Domain

Consequence C

High

low

Small large

R=PC

Domain 1 (Design)

Domain 2 (Beyond design)

Domain 3

(disaster mitigation)

Occurr

en

ce p

roba

bili

ty P

Controlled risk level

（R=PC）

Figure 2 Multi-Stage Risk Management Scheme (JAEE, 2015)

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General Information

Guidelines for presentations

The presentation time for each keynote address is 40 minutes (including 5 minutes for

discussion), for each invited speech is 25 minutes (including 5 minutes for discussion) and for

rest all the speakers is 18 minutes (including 3 minutes for discussion) for the oral sessions. The

speakers are to upload their files in the break time before their respective sessions.

For the poster presentations, the frame size for poster display is 150cm (height) x 90cm (width).

The poster presenters must prepare their posters in the portrait form.

A group of judges will choose outstanding work based on Oral/Poster presentations and Young

Scientist Award will be given to three inspiring students/delegates. Only those under the age of

40 years are eligible to compete for this award.

Ice Breaker

The Ice Breaker will be held in the Department of Geosciences, National Taiwan University

(NTU) at 18:00-20:00 on Sunday, Oct. 16, 2016.

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Conference Venue The conference will be held in the 15th floor of Union Development Building, Da-Pinglin which is in Xindian District, New Taipei City, Taiwan (R.O.C.). The venue is accessible through Exit 3 of the Dapinglin Metro Station.

Lunch

Lunch will be provided everyday at the conference venue for all the participants (Oct. 17 – 19,

2016).

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Banquet

The 5th IGRS Banquet Dinner will be hosted by the Organizing Committee on Tuesday, Oct. 18,

2016, at 18:30, at the “La Maree Restaurant (水源福利會館), Banquet Room Lily No. 16-1”, Si-

Yuan Street, Taipei (台灣台北市中正區思源街 16 號 2F). All Participants are invited to join.

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Field Excursion A field excursion is planned for Thursday, Oct. 20, 2016. More details can be obtained at the reception desk.

Accommodations

1. (捷絲旅) Just Sleep Address: No. 83, Sec. 4, Roosevelt Rd, Taipei City 100, Taiwan

(台北市羅斯福路四段 83 號)

+886- 2-7735-5001 http://www.justsleep.com.tw/main/en

2. (儷園) Li Yuan Address: No.98, Sec. 3, Roosevelt Rd., Zhongzheng Dist., Taipei City 100, Taiwan (MRT Station

Taipower Building, Exit no. 4)

(100 台北市中正區羅斯福路三段 98 號) + 886-2-2365-7367 http://www.liyuan.tw/about_en.php

3. (福華會館) Howard International Address: No. 30,Sec. 3,Shin-Sheng South Road. Taipei, 106, Taiwan (台北市新生南路三段 30 號)

+ 886-2-7712-2323 http://intl-house.howard-hotels.com.tw/CT_AsiaPacific1.php?Psn=4986

http://www.justsleep.com.tw/main/en

http://intl-house.howard-hotels.com.tw/CT_AsiaPacific1.php?Psn=4986

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List of participants – IGRS 2016

No Name Affiliation E-mail Region

1 Anil Sharma Assistant Professor, University School of Basic and Applied Sciences, Guru Gobind Singh Indraprasth University, New Delhi

[email protected] India

2 Ajay Kumar Assistant Professor, Department of Physics, DAV College, Amritsar, Punjab


3 Ajay Kumar Mahur

Assistant Professor, Department of Applied Science, Viveakanada College of Technology and Management, Aligarh


4 Alexander Kunz Researcher, Department of Geosciences, National Taiwan University, Taipei

[email protected] Taiwan

5 Arvind Kumar Associate Researcher, National Centre for Research on Earthquake Engineering, National Applied Research Laboratories, Taipei


6 B.S. Huang Researcher, Institute of Earth Sciences, Academia Sinica, Nankang, Taipei


7 Cédric P Legendre

Researcher, Institute of Earth Sciences, Academia Sinica, Taipei


8 Che-Min Lin Associate Researcher, National Center for Research on Earthquake Engineering, NARL


9 Chen Wen-Yau Researcher, International Wave Dynamics Research Center, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan


10 Cheng-Hong Chen

Professor, Department of Geosciences, National Taiwan University, Taipei


11 Cheng-Horng Lin Research Fellow, Institute of Earth Sciences, Academia Sinica, Nankang, Taipei


12 Ching-Chou Fu Researcher, Institute of Earth Sciences, Academia Sinica [email protected] Taiwan

13 Ching-Tse Chang Researcher, Exploration and Production Research Institute, CPC Corporation Taiwan, Miaoli


14 Chun-Hsiang Kuo Associate Researcher, National Center for Research on Earthquake Engineering, NARL


15 Ci Cheng Lin Researcher, National Taiwan Ocean University [email protected] Taiwan

16 Daichi Iwata Researcher, Department of Earth Science, Graduate School of Science, Tohoku University

[email protected] Japan

17 David R. Hilton Professor, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego, La Jolla, CA

[email protected] USA

18 Dinesh Kumar Sharma

Head, Department of Physics, Govt. College Chowari, Himachal Pradesh


19 Fausto Guzzetti Director, CNR IRPI – Research Institute for Geo-Hydrological Protection (IRPI), of the Italian National Research Council (CNR), Perugia

[email protected] Italy

20 Fedora Quattrocchi

Researcher, INGV (Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia), Via di Vigna Murata, Roma


21 Galip Yüce Professor, Department of Geological Engineering, Hacettepe University, Ankara

[email protected] Turkey

22 Gee-Yu Liu Research Fellow, National Center for Research on Earthquake Engineering (NCREE)


23 Guo-Teng Hong Researcher, Central Geological Survey [email protected] Taiwan

24 H. K. Jhuang Researcher, Institute of Earth Science, Academia Sinica, Nankang, Taipei


25 Haibing Li Professor, Institute of Geology, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, Beijing

[email protected] China














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26 Harsh K. Gupta Professor, National Geophysical Research Institute, Hyderabad


27 Hidemi Tanaka Professor, Graduate School of Sciences, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo


28 Himanshu Mittal Researcher, Department of Geosciences, National Taiwan University


29 Hsiao-fen Lee Institute of Earth Sciences, Academia Sinica [email protected] Taiwan

30 Hsin-Yi Wen Researcher, Green Energy and Environment Research Laboratories,Industrial Technology Research Institute, Hsinchu


31 Jeen-Hwa Wang Research Fellow, Institute of Earth Sciences, Academia Sinica


32 Jia-Jyun Dong Professor, Graduate Institute of Applied Geology, National Central University, Taoyuan


33 Jiin-Fa Lee Researcher, Central Geological Survey [email protected] Taiwan

34 Jui-Fen Tsai Researcher, Department of Geosciences, National Taiwan University


35 Kai-Wen Tang Researcher, Department of Geosciences, National Taiwan University


36 Kuldeep Singh Professor, Govt. P.G.College New Tehri, Uttarakhand [email protected] India

37 Kuo-Fong Ma Professor, Department of Earth Sciences, National Central University


38 Lap-Loi Chung Research Fellow, National Center for Research on Earthquake Engineering, NARL


39 Cheng-Kuo Lin Researcher, Industrial Technology Research Institute [email protected] Taiwan

40 Wayne Lin Researcher, Industrial Technology Research Institute [email protected] Taiwan

41 Yikai Lin Researcher, National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction, Taipei


42 M. Janik Researcher, The National Institutes for Quantum and Radiological Science and Technology (QST), National Institute of Radiological Sciences (NIRS) Chiba


43 Manish Kumar Researcher, Department of Applied Sciences, I.K.G. Punjab Technical University, Jalandhar


44 Min-Chien Tsai Researcher, Central Weather Bureau, Seismological Center, Taipei


45 Ming-Chun Ke Researcher, National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction


46 Mukesh Prasad Guest Faculty, Department of Physics, H.N.B. Garhwal University, Badshahi Thaul Campus, Tehri Garhwal


47 Orlando Vaselli Professor, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Florence


48 Paramesh Banerjee

Technical Director, Earth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University

[email protected] Singapore

49 Pei-Shan Hsieh Researcher, Material and Chemical Research Laboratories, Industrial Technology Research Institute


50 Poonam Semwal Researcher, Department of Physics, Govt. P.G. College, New Tehri, Tehri Garhwal


51 Po-Tsun Lee Researcher, Central Geological Survey [email protected] Taiwan

52 Preeti Pant Researcher, Department of Physics, H. N. B. Garhwal University, Badshahi Thaul Campus, Tehri Garhwal, Uttarakhand


53 R. C. Ramola Professor, Department of Physics, H.N.B. Garhwal University, Tehri Garhwal


54 Ramesh Chandra Tiwari

Professor, Department of Physics, Mizoram University, Aizawl


55 Shigeyuki Suzuki Professor, Department of Earth Sciences, Okayama [email protected] Japan















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University, Okayama

56 Shou-Fang Chang Researcher, Central Geological Survey [email protected] Taiwan

57 Shou-Yeh Gong Professor, Department of Geology, National Museum of Natural Science


58 Shuichi Hasegawa

Professor, Department of Safty Systems Construction Engineering, Kagawa University


59 Tefang Lan Researcher, Department of Geosciences, National Taiwan University, Taipei


60 Thomas Streil President, Sarad GmbH [email protected] Germany

61 Tingyeh Wu Researcher, National Science and Technology Center for

Disaster Reduction, Taipei [email protected] Taiwan

62 Tsuneomi Kagiyama

Professor, Aso Volcanological Laboratory, Faculty of Science, Kyoto University, Kyoto


63 Tsung-Han Yang Researcher, National Center for Research on Earthquake Engineering, NARL


64 Tsuyoshi Takada Professor of School of Engineering, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo

[email protected]

Japan

65 Vinod Kumar Kushwah

Professor, Department of Physics, Hindustan College of Science & Technology, Farah, Mathura- (U.P.)

[email protected], India

66 Vivek Walia Research Fellow, National Center for Research on Earthquake Engineering, NARL


67 Wei-Sen Li Research Fellow, National Science and Technology Centre for Disaster Reduction, Taipei


68 Wei-Tze Chang Researcher, National Centre for Research on Earthquake Engineering, NARL


69 Y. Y. Ho Researcher, Institute of Earth Sciences, Academia Sinica,

Taipei [email protected] Taiwan

70 Po-Yi Yeh Researcher, National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction, Taipei


71 Yi-Chia Lu Researcher, Department of Geosciences, National Taiwan University, Taipei


72 Yoshio Kahashi Professor, Department of Earth and Planetary Science, Graduate School of Science, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo


73 Yuji Sano Professor, Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo


74 Zih Wei Tang Researcher, National Taiwan Ocean University, Keelung [email protected] Taiwan















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5th international geo-hazards research symposium · ching-chou fu, ies arvind kumar, ncree ......

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