总第 056期 2011年 8月

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道琼斯全球资讯数据库精选The red (car) peril

Much as traders “talk their book”, they often ascribe ulterior motives to executives’ statements. Some suggested that the timing of the warning by Fiat and Chrysler chief Sergio Marchionne to western carmakers that they will be hurt by Chinese exports was calculated to influence negotiations with US unions. But his words should be taken as those of an industry visionary, not a negotiator.

It is easy for western groups to be complacent today, with no Chinese passenger cars on US or western European roads. General Motors just reported an 89 per cent jump in profits and the US car market grew faster than China’s in 2010. Despite the fact that China produces nearly as many vehicles as Japan, the US and Germany combined, according to the local industry association, many are low-end and only about 3 per cent are exported. In fact – and such a statistic is rare for China – it imports more cars than it exports.

Delving into the composition of those imports and exports, China’s trade deficit in finished cars is understated by units alone. Some 544,900, many of them commercial vehicles, were exported in 2010. The dollar figure per exported passenger vehicle is less than $6,000, showing why their value is appealing in markets such as Algeria, Iran and Vietnam. The leading import brands were the pricier Mercedes and BMW.

But this misses the point. Significant technology transfers through joint ventures and acquisitions and a huge home market, not to mention the usual labour cost edge, will make China a formidable export player fairly soon. It is already proficient in hot categories such as electric cars. For perspective, think back just a few decades when China was dubbed the “bicycle kingdom” with passenger cars a rarity. Extrapolate its progress to date and Mr Marchionne’s prediction rings true.

别小觑中国汽车出口

尽管交易员们自己也会别有用心地散布一些信息，他们却常常认定，企业高管发表的声明中都隐藏着不可告人的目的。兼任菲亚特 (Fiat) 和克莱斯勒 (Chrysler) 两家公司首席执行官的塞尔吉奥•马尔基翁内 (Sergio Marchionne) 日前警告一些西方汽车制造商，来自中国的出口将危及它们的前景。一些交易员认为，这一时机的选择经过了仔细的拿捏，是为了影响他与美国工会的谈判。但实际上，我们在解读这番话时，应该把马尔基翁内视为一位有远见的业内人士，而不是一位谈判者。

眼下，西方汽车制造商很容易感到自满，因为在美国和西欧的道路上见不到任何中国制造的轿车。通用汽车 (General Motors) 刚刚公布了利润激增 89% 的骄人业绩，而 2010 年，美国汽车市场的增速要快于中国。尽管根据中国行业协会的数据，目前中国出产的汽车总量接近日本、美国和德国三国的总和，但其中相当一部分是低端车，且出口率仅有 3%左右。实际上，中国进口的汽车数量要大于出口——这种情况的统计数据在中国很罕见。

在深入研究了中国汽车进出口的构成后会发现，仅通过数量来计算，会低估中国在整车领域的贸易逆差。 2010 年，中国共出口了 54.49 万辆汽车，其中许多为商务车。平均每辆轿车的售价不到 6000 美元——这也是它们在阿尔及利亚、伊朗和越南之类的市场颇具价格吸引力的原因所在。而中国进口数量最多的品牌为昂贵的梅塞德斯 -奔驰 (Mercedes-Benz)和宝马 (BMW) 。

但这样说完全偏离了重点。凭借通过合资和收购获得的重要技术转让，加上庞大的国内市场，更不用说一贯的劳动力成本优势，中国很快就会成为一个可怕的汽车出口国。在电动车等热门领域，中国已经处于尖端水平。至于其发展前景，回顾一下历史就知道了——就在几十年前，中国还被戏谑为“自行车王国”，轿车还是稀罕物。从它迄今所取得的进步来推断，马尔基翁内的预言并非耸人听闻。

DOWJONES EDUCATION

总第 056期 2011年 8月

如需更多精彩内容或订阅 , 请登陆 :uni.xinhuaonline.com联系方式：北京朝阳区东大桥路 8 号尚都国际 502 室（ 100020 ） 联系电话： 010-58700900

DOWJONES EDUCATION道琼斯全球资讯数据库精选

Bare-faced chic

On a recent flying visit to Paris earlier this month to conduct quiet talks with a senior member of the Libyan opposition, US secretary of state Hillary Clinton was snapped boarding a plane – without make-up. Just the next day she was photographed with red lipstick firmly in place. However, the fact that she had not only showed her naked face in public but allowed a picture to be taken for posterity (or at least various blogs) reflects a current trend in grooming. Put simply: women increasingly dare to bare.

Both Cherie Blair, wife of former British prime minister Tony Blair, and former home secretary Jacqui Smith have been captured without make-up on occasion. Samantha Cameron, wife of the current prime minister David Cameron, is only very subtly enhanced with make-up – the barest hint of blusher or mascara. Meanwhile, among fashion insiders, going without make-up has become almost a cult thing. Anna Dello Russo, editor at large at Vogue Nippon, often appears make-up-free; the same is true of super-stylists Melanie Ward and Anna Cockburn, and editors Katie Grand (of Love) and Penny Martin (of The Gentlewoman). Phoebe Philo, Céline designer and queen of minimalism, only wears a light foundation. Recent beauty trends, too, have underlined the move towards a scrubbed face, with bleached brows and mascara-free lashes last season, and naked eyelids for spring.

But not everyone applauds the make-up-free face. Nicola Moulton, health and beauty director of Vogue UK, says: “I’ve never really bought into the idea that women who don’t wear much make-up are actually the most confident ones. There’s laziness, there’s lack of skill and there’s not knowing what to buy, which could all be factors too.” Though such a statement is not exactly surprising given her job, Moulton actually appears to be make-up free when you first see her. She admits this is the result of a skilled application of tinted moisturiser, eyebrow pencil, blusher and bronzer – even at weekends.

职业女性流行“素颜”

美国国务卿希拉里•克林顿 (Hillary Clinton) 本月初飞赴巴黎与利比亚反对派 (Libyan opposition)某高官进行秘密会谈，在登机时被记者拍到并未化妆。就在第二天，记者们拍到的希拉里却又是红色唇膏依旧。但希拉里不仅敢于素颜示众，而且允许记者拍照四处流传（或者至少在不同的博客间转载），反映了当前梳妆打扮的趋势。简言之；女性越来越敢以素颜示世。

无论是英国前首相托尼•布莱尔 (Tony Blair) 的夫人切丽 (Cherie Blair) ，还是前内政大臣杰奎琳•史密斯 (Jacqui Smith) ，都时常被记者拍到未曾化妆。现首相大卫•卡梅伦 (David Cameron) 的夫人萨曼塔(Samantha Cameron) 也只是略施粉黛——只抹了淡淡的胭脂或者睫毛膏。同时，在时装圈，不化妆走台几乎成为竞相争逐的潮流。 Vogue 日本版主编安娜•戴洛•罗素 (Anna Dello Russo) 经常不化任何妆；梅拉妮•沃德 (Melanie Ward) 、安娜•科克本 (Anna Cockburn)等顶级时装设计师以及 Love杂志主编凯蒂•格兰德(Katie Grand) 与 Gentlewoman杂志主编佩尼•马丁 (Penny Martin)也无不如此。时尚品牌 Céline设计师、极简主义的领军人物菲比•菲罗 (Phoebe Philo) 也只是打一点淡淡的粉底霜。新近的美容趋势也是注重不化妆——去年流行眉毛漂白与睫毛不抹膏，今年春季则流行眼皮啥都不抹。

但并非每个人都对不化妆持欢迎态度。 Vogue英国版美容与健康总监尼古拉•莫尔顿 (Nicola Moulton)说：“我从来不接受这样的想法——不化太浓妆的女士实乃最自信一族。有些人是懒，有些人是不知道如何化好妆，有些人是不知道买啥，这些都可能是原因。”虽说从她的工作角度，她说出这样的话并不让人感到惊讶，但展现在世人面前的莫尔顿实际上似乎不化妆。她坦承这是自己巧妙搭配使用彩色润肤霜、眉笔、胭脂以及古铜色化妆品的结果——甚至在周末也不例外。