50,000,000.00 714285 · 0.6800- 0.7400 95.00- 100.00 ↓ the gbpusd pair remains weak around 1-week...

50,000,000.00

714285.7143

Long term (3 to 6 Months)

“

”

● DoT still working on final AGR dues due to varying accounting practices

● IMF still sees global growth rebound despite threat from virus

PBoC cuts Loan Prime Rate;

stimulus by central banks

supporting risk

● Crude oil hits three-week high on supply risks in Venezuela and Libya

● RBI Governor says coronavirus outbreak to have limited impact on India

IFA GLOBAL TREASURY RESEARCH ACADEMY| www.ifaglobal.net | www.treasuryelite.com| Blog: www.abhishekgoenka.com

From CEO's Desk

Medium term (Upto 3 Months) Intraday

Note: The above outlook is based on IFA Global Research Academy Proprietary ("IFA Dollar - Rupee Sentiment Index") based on various

techno-fundamental factors relevant to the particular outlook horizon. The index weights have been arrived at after rigorous back

testing. The factors which are considered for computation of barometers includes pre-defined and back tested weightage given to

fundamental factors such as economic data, FII flows, Global equity markets, Government & RBI activity, Onshore-offshore activity, other

peer currency performance and other macro economic factors. Further, this module also considers factors such as major MPC member's

speech, meeting or summit. On the technical front, factors include indicators and oscillators such as RSI, stochastic, combination of

moving averages and other basic & advance technical studies. (0 - 20%=extremely bearish, 21% - 40%=bearish, 41% - 60%=neutral, 61% -

80%=bullish, 81% - 100% extremely bullish)

News On The Street

73% 69% 73%

Mr. Abhishek Goenka

China has cut it's loan prime rate today in a response to the slowdown that is likely on

account of Coronavirus. The 1y and 5y Loan Prime Rate has been cut by 10bps and

5bps respectively. Accommodative measures by central banks are pumping asset

prices, especially equities. Also, the incremental addition of new Coronavirus cases is

lower and that too is supporting risk sentiment. The US Dollar has continued to

strengthen, especially against majors as the US economy is head and shoulders above

the rest of the developed market economies at this stage. The economic data from the

US has been holding up and therefore while other central banks are in easing mode,

the Fed could continue to keep rates on hold. The US Dollar has held on to it's gains

post the FOMC minutes yesterday. USDJPY has broken through the 110.50 mark and

the Dollar index is within striking distance of the 100 mark. The Australian Dollar is

trading close to it's decade lows. The USDINR pair likely range 71.55-71.85 with an

upside bias. Crude prices have risen on account of supply concerns from US

sanctioning Rosneft trading for maintaining toes with Venezuela and due to

deepening political crisis in Libya. The sterling continues to remain under pressure as

uncertainty over UK's future trading relationship with the EU remains.

Strategy: Exporters are advised to cover exposure around 71.80 levels. Importers are

advised to cover one month exposure on dips towards 71.30. The 3M range for

USDINR is 70.00 - 72.50 and the 6M range is 69.50 - 73.50.

IFA Dollar- Rupee Sentiment Index

● China announces biggest drop in new virus cases in almost a month

“USDINR

$ INDEX

EURUSD

GBPUSD

USDJPY

AUDUSD

GOLD

”

● USDINR (RANGE- 71.55 - 71.85)

The USDJPY pair surged to the highest in nine months, currently

trading at 111.40 levels, amid fading China coronavirus fears and

cautiously optimistic FOMC minutes. The prevailing risk-on mood,

stronger USD remained supportive of the move. The greenback gained

against the majority of its peers on the upbeat U.S. data and hopes that

the Chinese govt. will increase its policy stimulus.

The rupee today slumped to its lowest level against the US dollar in

over six weeks, opening lower by 24 paise at 71.79 levels following a

spike in crude oil prices and weaker Chinese Yuan. The PBoC lowered 1-

yr prime loan rate to 4.05%, which is seen as an acknowledgment of

the coronavirus-led slowdown in the global economy, led to a sharp

fall in Asian currencies which spilled over to the Rupee as well.

The EURUSD pair continued to remain under pressure, currently

hovering below 1.08 mark. EU data missed the market’s expectations

while US figures were upbeat, again highlighting the economic

imbalances. U.S. dollar remained near 3-year highs and had a muted

reaction to the minutes of the Federal Reserve January meeting, which

suggesting interest rates will likely be on hold for a time.

● USDJPY (RANGE- 110.50 - 111.80)

Q2 FY 2020-21

● EURUSD (RANGE- 1.0710 - 1.0850)

106.50-111.00 ↑


96.50- 100.00

1.2600-1.3600 ↓ 1.2800-1.3800

0.6800- 0.7400

95.00- 100.00 ↓

The GBPUSD pair remains weak around 1-week low at 1.2905 levels

mainly because of dollar's strength across the board. On the data front,

UK inflation was better than expected hitting a 6-month high but was

not enough to keep the Pound afloat. The threat of a possible no-deal

following the termination of the transition period later this year is

leaving investors wary of GBP.

● GBPUSD (RANGE- 1.2860 -1.2950)

IFA Outlook

Q3 FY 2020-21

February 20, 2020

Q1 FY 2020-21

FX Outlook for the day

69.50-74.50 ↑

1.2800-1.3600 ↓

0.6600-0.7000 ↓ 0.7100- 0.7500

95.00- 100.00 ↓

1.1000-1.1650 ↑

$1400- $1650 ↑

Q4 FY 2019-20

102.00-108.00 105.00-110.00

69.50 - 73.50 ↑69.50-72.50 ↑

DAILY CURRENCY INSIGHT

1.2800-1.3800

97.00- 99.50 ↑

0.7100- 0.7500

$1450- $1620 ↑

UK & EU CPI data

are likely to influence

the price action this

week

70.00-72.50 ↑

107.00-112.50 ↓

1.1200-1.1800 ↑1.1000-1.1500 1.0800-1.1200 ↓

$1400- $1800 ↑ $1450- $1800 ↑

“

”

“

”

“

”

● FII activity against USDINR and Nifty

February 20, 2020


● USDINR Open Interest (February Expiry )

Highest OI for Call

stands at 71.50 & Put

at 71.00 strike price.

Highest OI buildup is

seen at 71.50 Put

and 71.75 Call

Chart of the Day USDINR Spot 71.63

Activity Kurtosis


The USDINR pair broke the upper edge of the

symmetrical consolidation range but trading below

71.76 (daily super trend resistance level). On the

flipside, multiple supports lie in the range of 71.25 -

71.30.

FIIs have so far

infused $14.90

billion in the

Financial year 2019-

20

LIBOR ON 1M 6M 1Y MONTH 1M 3M 1Y 2Y

USD 1.58 1.64 1.70 1.77 USDINR 0.17 0.64 2.78 6.27

EUR -0.57 -0.52 -0.40 -0.32 EURINR 0.32 1.13 4.73 10.19

JPY 0.04 -0.10 -0.02 0.08 GBPINR 0.30 1.05 4.44 9.63

JPYINR 0.25 0.90 3.80 8.26

REGION LAST % CHANGE LAST CHANGE % CHANGE

ASIA 27431.60 -0.81 1609.24 -1.04 -0.06

2989.31 0.47 18.38 -0.01 -0.03

23463.67 0.27 53.63 0.14 0.26

INDIA 41343.38 0.05 99.69 -0.02 -0.02

12131.90 0.05 103.59 -0.29 -0.28

EUROPE 6111.24 0.90

13789.00 0.79 FY 2019-20 CY 2020 18-Feb-20

7457.02 1.02 75,589 21,580 173

US 29348.03 0.40 25,610 4,315 -78

9817.18 0.87 5,312 -32 2

106,511 25,863 97

“ Pivot S2 S1 P R1 R2

USDINR 71.44 71.56 71.68 71.80 71.92

EURINR 76.67 76.99 77.31 77.63 77.95

GBPINR 91.11 91.81 92.51 93.25 93.95

JPYINR 64.14 64.31 64.48 64.65 64.82

”

Currency Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact

19-Feb GBP 3.00 PM 1.8% 1.6% 1.3% BULLISH

USD 7.00 PM 1.551M 1.450M 1.420M BULLISH

USD 7.00 PM 0.5% 0.1% 0.2% BULLISH

20-Feb CNY 7.00 AM 4.05% 4.00 4.15% BULLISH

GBP 3.00 PM 0.7% -0.6%

USD 7.00 PM 12.0 17.0

PPI (MoM) (Jan)

NIKKEI

Rolling Forward Premiums LIBOR Rates


Figures are in INR Crores

Major Global Events

Macro Monitor

TOTAL

EQUITY

PBoC Loan Prime Rate

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Feb)

CPI (YoY) (Jan)

Building Permits (Jan)

SENSEX

DEBT

SHANGHAI

COMMODITIES/DI


Major Global Rates

SILVER ($/ounce)

Bloomberg ADXY

GOLD ($/ounce)HANG SENG

NIFTY

WTI CRUDE ($/brl)

Dollar INDEX

Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan)

Pivot Points

GLOBAL INDICES

DAX

FTSE

DOW

NASDAQ HYBRID

February 20, 2020

JPYINR pair is likely to find resistance at R1

levels (64.65)

Quick Glance

CAC

FPI INFLOWS

IMPORTANT NOTICE AND DISCLAIMER

While every effort has been made to ensure that the data quoted and used for the research behind this document is reliable, there is no guarantee that it is correct, and IFA Global can accept no liability whatsoever in respect of any errors or omissions, or regarding the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained herein. This document

does not constitute a recommendation to sell and/or buy any financial products and is not to be considered as a solicitation and/or an offer to enter into any transaction. This document is a piece of economic research and is not

intended to constitute investment advice, nor to solicit dealing in securities or in any other kind of investments. Although every investment involves some degree of risk, the risk of loss trading off-exchange forex contracts can be

substantial. Therefore if you are considering trading in this market, you should be aware of the risks associated with this product so you can make an informed decision prior to investing. The material presented here is not to be construed as

trading advice or strategy. IFA Global makes a strong effort to use reliable, expansive information, but we make no representation that it is accurate or complete. In addition, we have no obligation to notify you when opinions or data in this material change. Any prices stated in this report are for information purposes only and do not represent valuations

for individual securities or other instruments.

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50,000,000.00 714285 · 0.6800- 0.7400 95.00- 100.00 ↓ the gbpusd pair remains weak around 1-week...

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