45:211: environmental geography module 3 population, resources & environment too many people?...

45:211: Environmental Geography

Module 3

Population, Resources & Environment

Too many people? Too much consumption?


OUTLINE• Population Growth

– Current Population Trends– Developed and Developing countries

• Demographic Transition– A materializing economy

• Growth in consumption– Materials and energy

• Economies need ecosystems– Humans need Nature


Sustainable Development

• Sustainable development integrates economic progress, social development and environmental concerns. – The goals of economic and social development

must be defined in terms of environmental sustainability in all countries of the world – developed and developing (Our Common Future, WCED, 1987).


Agenda 21: Principles

1: Human beings are at the centre of concerns for sustainable development. They are entitled to a healthy and productive life in harmony with nature.

4: In order to achieve sustainable development, environmental protection shall constitute an integral part of the development process and cannot be considered in isolation from it.


Agenda 21: Principles

7: States shall cooperate in a global partnership to conserve, protect and restore the health and integrity of the Earth's ecosystems.

• The developed countries acknowledge the particular pressures that they place on the global environment.

8: To achieve sustainable development and a higher quality of life for all people, States should:

• reduce and eliminate unsustainable patterns of production and consumption and

• promote appropriate demographic policies.


Scarcity and Abundance

• 200 years ago, there were abundant resources and scarce people

• Today, there are abundant people and scarce resources


Population and Consumption

• Is Overpopulation the root cause of most environmental problems? – Is the population growth in developing

countries causing most of the world's environmental problems?

• The global environmental problem isn't just about the number of people, but the amount we all consume.


World Population - the numbers

1850 - 1.26-billion

1900 - 1.65-billion

1950 - 2.52-billion

1960 - 3.02-billion

1970 - 3.70-billion

1980 - 4.44-billion

1990 - 5.27-billion

1999 - 6.00-billion

2020 - 7.50-billion

2050 - 8.91-billion


World Population Growth

The Logisitic Curve


Population and Growth Rates

Country Population(1998)

DoublingTime

GermanyU.K.JapanCanadaChinaTurkeyIndiaMexicoEthiopiaTogo

82.359.1

126.430.6

1242.564.8

988.797.558.44.9

-433330136694537322819


Demographic Transition

• A model of population growth based on historical, social, and economic development of Europe and N. America.– Stable pop. (high birth and death rates)– Death rate falls, population grows– Industrialization (economic development) -

birth rate falls– Death rates and birth rates equilibrate


Population Growth Slowing Down?

• In 1998, the United Nations released its population update, reducing the projected world population for 2050 from 9.4 billion to 8.9 billion. – Of the 500 million drop, roughly two thirds is because

of falling birth rates, but one third is the result of rising death rates.

• Two regions where death rates are rising are sub-Saharan Africa and the Indian subcontinent, which together contain 1.9 billion people, or one third of humanity.


Current Population

• World population stands at about 6 billion.– Expect ~8 billion by 2025– Largest increase expected in developing

countries.

• Populations in the developed countries have stabilized:– But per capita material consumption has not.


Human Population Impacts

• Several factors determine the impact of a society on natural resources and the environment.– Population size– Population density– Level of materials and energy consumption


Standard of Living

• Standard of living:– The necessities and luxuries essential to a level

of existence that is customary within a society or culture.

– Standard of living appears to be closely tied to energy consumption

• This is a proxy for economic development

• Developing countries aspire to the higher standard of living of developed countries


Consumption

• CONSUMERISM is a social and economic creed that encourages us to aspire to greater and greater consumption, regardless of the consequences

• …. but there are consequences:– especially the environmental consequences of

manufacturing and waste disposal


Within a span of 200 years, the per capita energy consumption of industrialized nations has increased eight-fold.


Per capita energy use, 1989

Kg of coal equivalentUnited StatesFSUGermanyJapan

MexicoTurkeyChinaBrazil

IndiaIndonesiaNigeriaBangladesh

10127654653774032

1689958810798

30727419269


Growth in Consumption• Worldwide since 1950, the per capita

consumption of materials and energy has skyrocketed:– Copper, meat, energy, steel, timber have doubled

– Car ownership, cement have quadrupled

– Plastic by 5-times

– Aluminum by 7-times

– Air travel by 33-times


Consumption of Resources

Good Industrial

Countriesshare (%)

Consumptiongap (ratio)

AluminumChemicalsPaperIron and steel

TimberEnergyMeatFertilizers

CementFishGrainFresh water

86868180

76756160

52494842

19181413

101065

3333


Human Carrying Capacity• The human population cannot increase

indefinitely• In 1798, Thomas Malthus published his Essay

on Population– Human population increases at a faster rate than the

growth in the food supply – Therefore, the population will outgrow the ability of

the Earth to feed us all• His timing might be off but many people feel that his

original prediction is now coming true


Human Carrying Capacity (2)• In range management, carrying capacity is

defined as the maximum population of a given species that can be supported indefinitely in a specified habitat without impairing the productivity of that habitat.

• Because of our seeming ability to increase human carrying capacity by eliminating competing species, importing locally scarce resources, and through technology, this definition does seem so directly applicable to humans.


Humans and Nature

• Despite our technical, economic and cultural accomplishments, humans remain ecological beings. – Like all other species, we depend for both basic

needs and the production of artifacts on energy and material resources extracted from nature.

– Furthermore, all energy and matter is eventually returned to the ecosphere as waste, where it must be assimilated.


The secret life of a cup of coffee• From Colombia

• Forest clearance

• Pesticides

• Local Pollution, water use, etc

To New Orleans• By freighter

• Processing

• Packaging, etc

To you• Transportation, merchandising, preparation, waste


Stuff: The Secret Lives of Everyday Things

by John Ryan and Alan Durning


Ecological Footprint• The land (and water) area required to support a

defined human population and material standard indefinitely. – The index is expressed in terms of the area of

ecologically-productive land used per capita by a population.

• The global fair share of eco-productive land is 1.5 hectares per person– The average North American’s footprint is 8 to 10

hectares


Ecosystem Services

• The Earth's human economies would soon collapse without fertile soil, fresh water, breathable air, and an amenable climate – These are Nature's life-support services

• The human economy depends on ecosystems– It’s not the other way around


Natural Capital

• Natural capital consists of three major components: – non-renewable resources such as oil and

minerals that are extracted from ecosystems, – renewable resources such as fish, wood, and

drinking water that are produced and maintained by the processes and functions of ecosystems,


Natural Capital (cont.)– environmental services such as maintenance of the

quality of the atmosphere, climate, operation of the hydrological cycle including flood controls and drinking water supply, waste assimilation, recycling of nutrients, generation of soils, pollination of crops, provision of food from the sea, and the maintenance of genetic diversity (biodiversity).

• All these crucial services are generated and sustained by the functioning of ecosystems


Forest Ecosystems

Goods ServicesTimberFuelwoodDrinking and irrigation waterFodderNon-timber products (vines,bamboos, leaves, etc.)Food (honey, mushrooms, fruit,and other edible plants; game)Genetic resources

Remove air pollutants, emitoxygenCycle nutrientsMaintain array of watershedfunctions (infiltration,purification, flow control, soilstabilization)Maintain biodiversitySequester atmospheric carbonModerate weather extremes andimpactsGenerate soilProvide employmentProvide human and wildlifehabitatContribute aesthetic beauty andprovide recreation


Global Forests


Sustainability: Two Sides

Ecological sustainability underpins socioeconomic sustainability

• The necessary conditions for developing sustainability: – Securing a satisfactory quality of life for all

(socioeconomic imperative). While– Reducing the Ecological Footprints of the

industrialized countries (ecological imperative).


Sustainability Gap

• While the residents of the developed world consume on average three-times their fair share of sustainable global output, the basic needs of the world’s billion plus chronically poor are not being met. – More material growth, at least in the poor

countries, seems essential for socioeconomic sustainability.


Ecology Gap

• According to Ecological Footprint analysis, the current level of global human consumption already exceeds the available ecological capacity of the Earth by 30%. – From this, any global increase in material and

waste throughput seems ecologically unsustainable.


The Sustainability Challenge• If we rely on conventional economic strategies

and technologies to fix development problems, the additional material growth would further degrade already stressed global ecosystems. – Sustainable development is more than simple

economic reform. – How can we decrease humanity’s total ecological

impact while providing adequately for the needs of all humankind?


Summary• Conventional wisdom:

– Global population cannot grow indefinitely

• Unconventional wisdom:– Material consumption cannot grow indefinitely– Carrying capacity is limited by ecological resources

• Sustainability means finding an ecological footprint that doesn’t stamp out global ecosystems

45:211: environmental geography module 3 population, resources & environment too many people?...

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