40 Year Capital Planning forGovernments

Is this realistic?

Photo Courtesy of Mitul Shah

January, 2019

Table of Contents..............................................................................1

Introduction.....................................................3Past Decisions........................................340 Year Planning Horizon......................4Clear and Present Dangers.....................4

Setting Capital Renewal Rates........................6Capital Renewal Rate.................................6

Climate Change Disruptions............................9Summary..............................................10

Technological Disruptions.............................11Oil.............................................................11Moving Oil to Market...............................12

Summary..............................................13Electric Vehicles (EV)...................................14

Cars...........................................................14Farm Equipment.......................................17

Summary..............................................18Renewable Energy.........................................18

Duck Curve...............................................19Summary..............................................19

Battery Advances...........................................19Liquid Metal Battery.................................20Molten Silicon or “Sun in a Box”.............20

CO2 Battery...............................................21Fluoride Battery........................................21Solid-State Battery....................................21

Summary..............................................22Machine Learning (Artificial Intelligence). . .22

Mining Operations....................................23Farming.....................................................24Spraying....................................................24Cars...........................................................24

Summary..............................................25Medical Advances.........................................27

Summary..............................................293D Printing....................................................29

3D Printing Allows...................................31Summary..............................................32

Pulling It All Together...................................32Overview...................................................32Capital Recommendations and Observations.............................................33Capital Planning Going Forward..............35

APPENDIX A................................................36Jobs Lost by Artificial Intelligence with 85% - 99% Probability..............................36

IntroductionFull disclosure; I have no investment or involvement with any of the technologies, directions or solutions offered or identified within this article. Any conclusions or opinions are my own independent analysis developed from my ongoing monitoring of new and emerging technologies and their potential impacts on capital/asset initiatives.

Technological advancements are growing exponentially in all sectors and they are going to critically impact the success of capital initiatives. For capital plans and investments to be remain effective and feasible for the life of the asset, an organization must conduct a comprehensive strategic analysis using a forty year horizon. This article shall layout and demonstrate why this is critically important.

An historical example that exemplifies some of the key elements of this article would be the Eastman Kodak Company (Kodak). Kodak pioneered photography by inventing and marketing consumer friendly film cameras. Kodak brought photography to the general pubic. By the late 1970's Kodak was the world leader in the photography industry. Commanding a 90% market share in film sales and 85% market share in camera sales. Kodak was also granted the first digital camera patent (0.01 megapixels) in 1977. Rather embrace and dominate the future with new digital camera technology, Kodak actively suppressed their own technology and focused on preserving their domination in film.

Kodak unfortunately failed to embrace the future and only entered into the digital market long after it was saturated. Kodak further their demised by holding onto a 19th Century belief that people wanted hard copies of their pictures. Ignoring the emerging market adoption of sharing “photos” with online platforms such as Myspace, Facebook and Instagram. Instead Kodak doubled down and invested heavily in mail order photos and printers designed for printing photos. Kodak focused on the evidence of the past while ignoring the impacts of technology on the future. In less than ten years Kodak went from a world leader in the photo industry to filing for bankruptcy in 2012.

Past Decisions

Most governments and their related agencies are currently working around five year capital planning horizons. From a fiscal or accounting perspective this is an acceptable practice. Unfortunately from a capital asset perspective this is dangerously short sighted. In this article I will be demonstrating why a five year capital planning horizon is not practical or effective for capital/asset planning. Five year planning horizons trend towards reactive investments with long term consequences. Richard Rumelt in a 2007 article by McKinsey & Company provided a poignant quote that eloquently sums up this principle.

“Most corporate strategic plans have little to do with strategy. They are simply three-year or five-year rolling resource budgets and some sort of market share projection. Calling this strategic planning creates false expectations that the exercisewill somehow produce a coherent strategy.”

Source: https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/strategys-strategist-an-interview-with-richard-rumelt?cid=soc-web

A good example of reactive capital decisions in public facilities were assets built in the 60's and 70's to address the immediate pressures of baby boomers. Many of these assets where built with a 35 year life expectancy and are now at the end of their useful life.

Good capital planning is a benefit for everyone and I fully support government efforts as they move forward towards accomplishing these goals. It is imperative to ensure we do not repeat past decisions for quick and easy solutions to satisfy immediate pressures at the lowest build cost. Decisions that result in higher total cost of ownership, limited ability to extend the life of the structure and serious major maintenance issues.

40 Year Planning Horizon

This article will provide the evidence and support for governments to trend and forecast out a minimumof forty years for effective capital planning. But it cannot be done off a napkin or the side of a desk once a week every year. Effective capital planning requires a dedication for good data collection and effective data analysis. Good capital planning requires historical data, short and long term trending and most critically an appreciation and understanding of potential technological disruptions and their potential impacts on society and the capital assets we are building today.

It is critically important to maintain a vigilance in identifying and incorporating the coming waves of technological disruptions and their impacts into our long term capital/asset planning. Technology is experiencing exponential growth with new technological advancements that are going to impact governments, society and people. Compounding the impact of new technologies is the growing acceleration of market adoption.

On the Market adoptionside, the time it takes for anew technology to reachmainstream adoption isaccelerating exponentially,to the point in the futurewhere a new technologycan have greater than 50%market penetration in justa few years, whereasbefore it would takedecades.

(Source: A Look at How Technology is Reshaping the Global Economy by Max Marmer)

Clear and Present Dangers

Evidence based decision making for capital planning is important but has a very large blind spot that needs to be identified and clearly understood. Evidence based decision making is a process of looking at the past to determine the future. The use of historical data is critically important in a comprehensive capital planning process but it must be applied with care. Kodak's demise resulted from forecasting future actions based solely on past and present successes.

Technological disruptions are already presenting clear and present dangers that are going to have significant impacts on the success of long range capital planning and projects. These technological disruptions will also create pressures on tax and royalty revenues. Revenues required for maintaining,

upgrading and replacing exhausted assets. Current data clearly shows that while productivity and innovation are advancing, median income and employment are declining. The exponential growth in technological advances will only exasperate these growing social pressures. Lower tax revenues and growing unemployment will create increasing pressures on Governments and safety net programs. The world around us is changing faster than people can adapt.

Identifying and tracking a broad band of technological advancements provides in my opinion a forty thousand foot view without the clouds. Large capital investments require years to conceptualize, initiateand complete. The risk is investing hundreds of millions to billions of dollars on a single project that will not be required upon completion or has a limited effective life is further compounded by all the missed capital investments that should have been completed.

A famous example of a major project that was obsolete before it was initiated was the Maginot Line. A large and complex defensive fortification started in the 1930's and built over a 10 year period in France for $3 billion francs (18.6 billion US-2018). Unfortunately fortifications were a 19th Century solution made obsolete by 20th Century armoured mobile warfare and aircraft. Two technologies introduced into battle in World War 1.

German Armoured Tank introduced during WW1

Photo Source: National Archives / Official German Photograph

Setting Capital Renewal Rates

In a past article “Facility Condition Index, Governments and Capital Planning (1 of 3)” I outlined a detailed “in the trenches” planning process for integrating capital planning with maintenance and operations. Including how to identify and manage capital assets that where beyond economic repair. The rate in which we determine the renewal of capital assets is directly linked to the quality of the maintenance activities, condition of the existing assets and original design considerations. Finding the correct balance is important in order to ensure we are not creating the same future we inherited from the 60's and 70's.

Technological disruptions are an additional wild card within long range capital planning. However theymust be factored into the design and planning considerations.

Capital Renewal RateOne of the key questions an architect will ask a client is how long they want the asset to last. The answer the owner provides will have a substantial impact on the construction costs, the facilities structural design considerations, choice of envelopes, finishing materials, etc.. Knowing the right answer is critical as a poorly developed decision can have long ranging impacts on total cost of ownership and future capital budgets. This is why I created a Capital Renewal Rate. The capital renewal rate is a simple formula that captures or solves either the rate of new capital renewal or how long a facility should to be built to last or the “built for years” (BFY) factor. The formula is below.

total # of facilities / facilities built to last X years = yearly capital renewal rate

To demonstrate how the formula is applied lets establish a fictitious company called ABC organization (ABC) with the following characteristics:

• 600 facilities,

• Facility Condition Index (FCI) rates have been reviewed and validated*,

• 180 facilities have an FCI's in excess of 30%,

• history of chronically underfunded maintenance budgets,

• 220 additional facilities with FCI's between 20% - 30%,

• data collection over ten years point towards an accelerating growth in deferred maintenance,

• new capital replacement cost of $5,000,000.00 per facility.

* Facility Condition Index, Governments and Capital Planning (1 of 3)

NOTE: One key assumption in this example is there is no changes in demand. Diminishingdemand may relieve some pressure. Growing demand would exasperate future budgets and or

governments ability to meet their obligations

ABC has 180 facilities that are considered by industry standards beyond economic repair and in need ofreplacement. Unfortunately these 180 facilities are only the tip of the iceberg. ABC has another 220 facilities with FCI's between 20 and 30%. They too will continue to deteriorate and cross over the 30% FCI threshold.

At some point all the facilities within the inventory will eventually require replacement due to obsolescence, poor design, end of useful life or premature failure from inadequate maintenance fundingor activities. ABC has failed to manage their assets and now have a huge capital pressure to resolve. ABC must develop a comprehensive and defensible capital renewal plan that will effectively resolve their situation and address the coming capital asset pressures.

Lets look at two approaches for ABC to address their situation; arbitrary and data driven.

Arbitrary

In an effort to keep capital costs in check and look fiscally prudent, ABC has arbitrary established a renewal rate of two facilities each year with a BFY design of 30 years. What are the impacts of this arbitrary decision?

From the data projection on the left we can see that ABC will be unable to reverse the trend of deteriorating facilities from reaching “beyond economic repair”.

Clearly ABC is on a trajectory to failure. A poor plan is worse than no plan. A poor plan provides an illusion of a solution and will take years before the impacts of inept planning are visible.

ABC's arbitrary decisions are recklessly risking the creation of a tsunami of unsustainable capital pressures upon a fast approaching future.

Data Driven

For this example ABC has first determined they can sustain a capital budget of 25 million dollars or five new facilities a year. With these new parameters we can solve for the BFY rate.

total # of facilities / facilities built to last X years = capital renewal rate

Year2019 180 2 2 1772020 178 2 2 1772021 176 2 3 1782022 174 2 3 1792023 172 2 3 1802024 170 2 4 1822025 168 2 4 1842026 166 2 4 1862027 164 2 4 1882028 162 2 4 1902029 160 2 4 1922030 158 2 4 1942031 156 2 4 1962032 154 2 4 1982033 152 2 4 2002034 150 2 4 2022035 148 2 4 2042036 146 2 4 2062037 144 2 4 2082038 142 2 4 2102039 140 2 4 2122040 138 2 4 2142041 136 2 4 2162042 134 2 4 2182043 132 2 4 2202044 130 2 5 2232045 128 2 5 2262046 126 2 5 2292047 124 2 5 2322048 122 2 5 2352049 120 2 5 2 2402050 118 2 5 2 2452051 116 2 5 2 2502052 114 2 5 2 2552053 112 2 5 2 2602054 110 2 5 2 2652055 108 2 5 2 2702056 106 2 5 2 2752057 104 2 5 2 280

78 163

Original facilities FCI>30%

Facilities Refresh

Rate

New Facilities with FCI reaching

>30%

30 yr Facilities Expiring

Total Facilities with FCI <30%

600 facilities/built to last X years = 5 new facilities per year X = 120 years

With the dismal condition of ABC's facilities this renewal rate may prove difficult in the first twenty years as deteriorated facilities fail prematurely. However over the long term ABC will be successful without hitting a hard financial wall in the foreseeable future.

From the same chart on the left we can see that ABC is under the same conditions as before but is able to effectively reduce their capital pressures.

Designing new capital assets with life expediencies of 120 years requires intelligent design with flexibility for functionality upgrading and major maintenance with minimum disruption or cost.

For example;

• Building hospitals with interstitial spaces between floors for mechanical, HVAC, plumbing, etc.

• Establishing a swing ward in a hospital to support larger scale upgrades when accommodating functionality and new technological advances.

• Not building on steel piles with a slab on grade. Instead building with concretepiles and crawlspaces to minimize structural shifting and allowing access to all mechanical components.

• Ensuring no mechanical, electrical, HVAC, etc. are embedded in concrete or other inaccessible locations.

• All elements are readily accessible for inspection, maintenance and replacement.

In the event that ABC is unable to maintain a refresh rate of 5 capital assets. Any assets built with a BFY of 120 years will not have a negative impact on the organization.

A capital plan must forecast out 40 or more years in order to effectively capture and validate the full impact of decisions made today. Unfortunately a common phrase I hear is “I will be retired by then.”, a disheartening approach to the serious business of comprehensive capital planning.

Year2019 180 5 2 1772020 175 5 2 1742021 170 5 3 1722022 165 5 3 1702023 160 5 3 1682024 155 5 4 1672025 150 5 4 1662026 145 5 4 1652027 140 5 4 1642028 135 5 4 1632029 130 5 4 1622030 125 5 4 1612031 120 5 4 1602032 115 5 4 1592033 110 5 4 1582034 105 5 4 1572035 100 5 4 1562036 95 5 4 1552037 90 5 4 1542038 85 5 4 1532039 80 5 4 1522040 75 5 4 1512041 70 5 4 1502042 65 5 4 1492043 60 5 4 1482044 55 5 5 1482045 50 5 5 1482046 45 5 5 1482047 40 5 5 1482048 35 5 5 1482049 30 5 5 1482050 25 5 5 1482051 20 5 5 1482052 15 5 5 1482053 10 5 5 1482054 5 5 5 1482055 0 5 5 1482056 -5 5 5 1482057 -10 9 5 144

199 163

Original facilities FCI>30%

Facilities Refresh

Rate

New Facilities with FCI reaching

>30%

120 yr Facilities Expiring

Total Facilities with FCI <30%

Climate Change Disruptions

The Industrial Revolution started the process of increasing CO2 concentrations in our atmosphere. Climate Change is included in this article because of the serious impact it has on planning and building for the future with our capital/asset plans.

According to a United Nations study ( http://www.un.org/en/sections/issues-depth/climate-change/ ) completed in October 2018. It critically important to restrict global warming to no more than 1.5C above the CO2

baseline of 1870; as opposed to the originally Paris Agreement of 2C. The study found there were critical impacts to our environment with the simple addition of 0.5C.

An additional reportregarding holding to 1.5c is

available athttps://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/

The document No. 08-01 developed in 2007 by Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborativewhich included Saskatchewan Ministry of Environment, Alberta Environment and the University of Regina, paints a very troubling picture for Western Canada. The document captures the known data of the time and offered options for managing the impacts of Climate Change. The following information is comprised from sections of that report.

(Source: www.huffingtonpost.com)

The primary piece impacting capital planning is water security and managing water resources in an environment with frequent and prolonged drought conditions. The report highlights reduced winter snowfalls in the latter half the twentieth century which have been substantiated in the trend of decliningstream flows.

The warming trends are also impacting alpine areas in the Rocky Mountains with reduced snow accumulation and earlier spring weather. These changes are causing stream flows to occur earlier in the year, resulting in lower water supplies throughout the summer. Continued glacier retreat and reduced stream flow will further compound water shortages during drought years.

In the taiga and boreal forest regions, increased drought frequency, including persistent multi-year droughts will result in declining soil moisture and increased forest fire extent.

The report identifies more evasive pests and growing weather extremes. Global Warming will and is having a greater impact in Northern Canada. The preceding image identifies temperature trends from 1948 to 2012 and clearly illustrates the warming tends in Canada over 64 years.

Source: Environment and Climate Change Canadahttps://ec.gc.ca/sc-cs/default.asp?lang=En&n=A5F83C26-1&wbdisable=true

Global Water Futures from the National Hydrology Research Centre in Saskatoon with researchers from the University of Saskatchewan completed a five year study in March 2018. Their data demonstrated that winters are now two months shorter than in the 1970's with reduced snow cover. Thistrend is impacting snow packs and glaciers in British Columbia, a primary water resource for Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba waterways. A well researched and important short scientific documentary on these issues with a focus on their impacts to Western Canada is available at:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=80&v=L8IbgckLy6k .

For capital/asset planning these trends indicate we will experience predominately mild winters with reduced snow accumulations, earlier springs followed by longer and hotter summers with extended periods of drought. Summer storms (when they happen) will last longer and move slower creating flashflooding events and increased top soil erosion.

Summary

The biggest and most likely impact for capital planning will be climate change. Climate change and building to mediate the impacts should form a significant part of all capital/asset planning. I am going to forgo the impacts of rising sea levels and coastal storm surges. My focus for this article will be the interior of Western Canada.

The glacier that supplies our water is melting faster then it is regenerating. River water flows will continue to slow and eventually end when the glacier reaches it's end of life. Riverbeds will eventually dry up and will only flow with spring runoff or after summer storms. Forest fires and grass fires will

also become frequent in number and intensity. These uncomfortable and stark realities need to be mitigated from a capital planning perspective

I have identified three key elements that should in my opinion be incorporated into any comprehensive capital/asset planning.

1. Water security

2. Indoor air quality

3. Facility hardening

Water security will be Western Canada's greatest threat. Australia and California are already experiencing water security issues resulting from advancing climate change. Designing facilities to capture and hold rain water while reducing water consumption is a significant and important first step. Recycling grey water for black water use or for landscaping needs can reduce up to 30% of potable water usage. Captured rain water can be used to provide extended free cooling and reserve water for facility needs or community fire fighting.

Indoor air quality will be impacted from an increase in blowing dust and smoke from fires. Designing public facilities with island mode capacity and comprehensive particulate extraction in the intake stream of HVAC systems will provide better indoor air quality and lower operating costs.

Facility hardening is designing in aspects for a facility to successfully weather increasingly severe weather events. Such as architectural elements providing additional window protection, better roof designs to resist or prevent uplifting, higher storm water flow rates or incorporating retaining ponds to reduce basement or crawlspace flooding.

Point of Interest: https://www.carbonfootprint.com/calculator.aspx is an interestingonline site for individuals to calculate their carbon footprint.

Technological Disruptions

OilIn 1956 geologist M. King Hubbert first presented the theory of peak oil. Based upon the technology and data of the day. Mr. Hubbert's predictions for 1970 peak oil in the United States turned out to be correct. However the technological disruption of hydraulic fracking has impacted the oil market by freeing up previously hydro locked oil wells and other oil reserves originally considered uneconomical.For example, in the Delaware Basin between New Mexico and West Texas 46.3 billion barrels of oil and 281 trillion cubic feet of natural gas were considered unrecoverable before fracking. Fracking has created an environment were the United States has changed from an importer of oil to another oil exporting nation.

Fracking (shale oil) coupled with advances in discovering new oil fields has been creating an environment of excess oil supply. In 2014 oil production exceeded world demand and created a glut of oil. The oil glut drove the price of light crude oil from $125US in 2012 to below $30US by 2016. The Bloomberg chart below clearly demonstrates the historical impacts between supply-demand-price per barrel.

The drop in world oil prices in 2014 was caused by an over supply of only two million barrels of oil a day. Many countries (USSR, Iran, Saudi Arabia, etc.) and Provinces in Canada (primarily Saskatchewan and Alberta) rely heavily on oil royalties to support growth and renewal. Traditional solutions to low oil prices are:

1. Raise production to offset reductions in royalty revenues.

2. Decrease supply to remove excess oil in the market.

Unfortunately I believe neither of these options will work because (1) raising production will only exasperate the world oil price. (2) Poorer countries such as Venezuela rely heavily on oil royalties for their countries economy and have limited options for other sources of revenue. (3) Restricting supply requires the majority of oil producing nations to be in agreement and remain compliant. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has grown from a manageable five members (1965) to fifteen (2018) and currently represent only 44% of the global oil production. (4) Many companies are storing cheap oil in hopes of a price recovery. Storage capacities will become exhausted and stored oil reserves will have to be dumped into the market further exasperating the global price of oil. (5) There are coming technological disruptions to further exasperate the over supply pressures.

Moving Oil to MarketWestern Canadian oil is land locked and has to be shipped to markets. In Western Canada this is primarily by special tanker rail cars. The transportation costs are high due to strict regulations on oil tanker cars and the additional burden having to ship empty rail cars back for refilling. Any rail accidents causing major oil spills or explosions could easily lead to additional regulations and increasedcosts for oil companies to ship oil with tanker cars.

Pipe lines in North America are at full capacity and in high demand. With the over supply of oil and increasing demand for pipeline access in North America, Canada has been forced to deeply discount it'scrude oil. With a record penalty of $50.00 per barrel in October 2018.

(image source from www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018)

Deep discounts on Canadian oil is creating financial pressures on oil companies and additional revenue loses for governments. The current proposed solution is for building additional pipelines to the United States and the West Coast in order to create capacity for Canadian oil to get to market without additional discounts.

Canadian National Railway has developed a technological processes dubbed CanaPux. This new process takes highly toxic bitumen and encapsulates it into a squarish “puck”. The finished pucks are coated with a polymer that protects the pucks from damage. The CanPux can withstand temperatures up to 145C and float on water if spilled. CanPux's are environmentally inert and safe to handle. The polymer is recyclable, reusable and can be easily removed for access to the bitumen. The cost to implement this technology has not been identified at the time of the article. (picture source: www.cbc.ca)

CanaPux's can also be transported in lighter and more cost effective gondola cars. Removing heavy transportation costs of specialized oil tanker rail cars.

(source https://www.cninnovation.ca)

Summary

The high supply of crude oil on the world market has devalued the price of oil. The greatest impact is tocountries with more than 90% of their total exports in oil. Such as Algeria, Azerbaijan, Brunei Darussalam, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Sudan and Venezuela (2013). These countries do not have the

financial capacity to withstand prolonged reductions in crude oil prices and are expected to increase production to offset their diminishing revenues. Abundant supply from shale oil and limited world storage capacity will further depress the price of oil. These pressures will create significant and long term impacts on Provincial and Federal budgets.

Shale oil has changed counties such as the United States from oil importers to oil exporters. Further reducing world demand while simultaneously increasing supply. Unless there is a world wide coordination and cooperation for supply management of oil (as in diamonds) the price for a barrel of light crude will remain historically low.

Over the next 30 to 40 years there will be a growing cycle of increasing oil supply in a market of diminishing demand. Technological, social and climate change actions will create additional pressures and disruptions further reducing demand. The data is signalling that oil is transiting out as a driver of economies. Oil production in the late 21st century will most likely become a “cottage industry”. Refinedfor specific industries that cannot economically work without petroleum, such as jet fuel, rocket fuel, lubricants and other petroleum byproducts.

Canadian National Railway's development of CanaPux is an available game changing technology that provides Western Canada with a very safe and potentially cost effective method for transporting heavy oil to market. This one technological advancement coupled with the growing supply of shale oil makes the 16 billion dollar Alberta BC Pipeline our Maginot Line, obsolete and unnecessary before it was built. Sixteen billion dollars which could be applied to 21st century projects with long term tangible benefits.

As oil transitions out as a major source of revenue, capital projects will be impacted as society and the economy adjust. Clearly signalling the importance of designing capital initiatives that will last and provide benefits during and after this transition period.

Electric Vehicles (EV)

CarsEV's are projected by Bloomberg to be on par for cost with internal combustion engine vehicles (ICE) without subsidies within six years. All major vehicle manufactures around the world are manufacturing EV's and are moving towards increasing EV manufacturing. In September 2017 Volkswagen (VW) announce an investment of 84 billion into EV and battery technology

Volkswagen CEO Matthias Mueller said:“A company like Volkswagen must lead, notfollow. We have got the message and we will deliver. This is not some vague declaration of intent. It is a strong self-commitment which, from today, becomes the yardstick by which we measure our performance.”

(https://electrek.co/2017/09/11/vw-massive-billion-investment-in-electric-cars-and-batteries/).

ICE is entering its legacy period as manufactures evoke transition plans. Manufactures of cars, light and medium trucks, agricultural equipment and semi-trucks are all currently manufacturing some form of EV. China is focusing on becoming the world leader in EV manufacturing. Nathaniel Bullard and

Colin McKerracher published an opinion article in Bloomberg (February 8, 2019) regarding the peak ofICE and China's lead in EV adoption.

Our Bloomberg NEF colleagues often say that China is “half of everything,” such as aluminum, steel and copper consumption. For the electric vehicle sector, China is at least half of everything, if not far more, in three key areas: It represents 76 percent of all commissioned lithium-ion battery manufacturing capacity; logged 60 percent of global EV sales in fourth-quarter 2018; and held 50 percent of global public vehicle-charging infrastructure as of the end of 2018.

(Picture Source: evobsessioncom)

How quickly is EV growth expected? Part of the push is China's “New Energy Vehicle” quota's. According to the Bloomberg article “New Energy Finance (BNEF)”, Salim Morsy wrote:

Our latest forecast shows sales of electric vehicles (EVs) increasing from a record 1.1million worldwide in 2017, to 11 million in 2025 and then surging to 30 million in 2030 as they become cheaper to make than internal combustion engine (ICE) cars.China will lead this transition, with sales there accounting for almost 50% of the global EV market in 2025 and 39% in 2030. China also leads on percentage adoption, with Evs accounting for 19% of all passenger vehicle sales in China in 2025. The number of ICE vehicles sold per year (gasoline or diesel) is expected to start declining in the mid-2020s, as EVs bite hard into their market. Electrified buses and cars will displace a combined 7.3 million barrels of oil per day [...] in 2040.

If BNEF predictions are accurate, a quarter of the cars on the road in 2040 would be EV's, displacing 13 million barrels of oil per day. The following charts and quotes are from Ross Tessien's online article:“Solar, carmakers, energy, long/short equity”

The curves are,

• ICE sales (in blue) down 20% ~2021and approach 0 ~2027

• EV sales (in red) reach 20% ~2024and pass 90M ~2028

• ICE plus EV sales (in green) show a 35% decline in new auto sales around 202

Some assumptions sets I made showed new cars sold dropping by 55% in 2025 for one year. The dip shown is a "best case" scenario for new car sales and assumes a rapid growth in EV production capacity.

• Transportation Oil Demand (in purple) indicates a glut will form around 2023 with >2Mbbl/day demand displaced by the global EV fleet.

IEA estimates current global oil demand is around 100 million barrels per day. The projection is that the demand for oil is rising slowly, but with the changing markets, I use a fixed figure of 100 Mbbl/day.

If actual demand rises, the effect will be to delay the downturn in oil demand slightly, but the EV effect is much larger than the projected rise in demand, making the rise insignificant com pared to the EV penetration.

BP estimates that the global oil demand for transportation is around 56% of the crude oil demand. This means that around 56Mbbl/day go to the transportation sector, and this is the portion I consider in my graph below.

Plotting transportation oil demand out to 2032 and assuming a 1 billion car global fleet yields:The factors that will change these results significantly include:

1. A large drop in oil prices due to EV penetration of the global fleet of vehicles.A reduction in oil prices will slow EV purchases and delay the end of new ICE vehicle sales. If this happens, then the drop in total new car sales will bereduced.

2. Autonomous control, once realized and allowed to operate on public roadways or private roadways, will accelerate the adoption of new vehicles with autonomous control. As those will preferentially be EVs, I expect that whenever autonomous control becomes a reality, EV penetration will accelerate. If this happens, then the drop in total new car sales after 2023 will match the graph.

3. Whenever Legacy Auto companies cease grousing and begin construction of EVs in earnest, the EV transition will accelerate.

4. If oil producers manage to coordinate a global reduction in production volume, so that supply and demand are balanced, then the price of oil could remain high throughout the decline in transportation oil sales. This would accelerate the transition to EVs and accelerate the pace of oil sales' ultimate decline.

(source https://seekingalpha.com/article/4225153-evs-oil-ice-impact-2023-beyond )

According to Nasdaq (https://www.nasdaq.com/article/how-much-crude-oil-do-you-consume-on-a-daily-basis-cm449147) a typical ten year old car uses around fifteen barrels of oil per year. The oil glut of 2014 was caused by anover supply of only 2 million barrels of oil a day. Bloomberg NEF via NASDAQ: “Rise of Electric Cars” predicts 50% of the global fleet of cars will be EV's by 2040 and 35% of new car sales to be EV's. To create an over supply of 2 million barrels of oil per day would require the replacing 48.7

million ICE cars with EV's (2,000,000*365/15=48,666,666) or 25% of the worlds registered cars on theroad today.

This Bloomberg video provides good context to these concepts: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jwHN6QQWv2g

Ross Tessien in his online article: “Solar, carmakers, energy, long/short equity” predicts that by 2030 around 700 million EV's will be in the global fleet. With EV's representing 90% of the new car sales by2027.

For this disruption to play out over the next 7 years should not come as a surprise to anyone that has studied past disruptions. EV sales are just now entering the rapid growth phase where consumer acceptance has flipped from one technology to the next.

Both Bleemberg NEF and Ross Tessien predict EV's will create an oil gut by displacing ICE's around 2023. Currently transportation accounts for 56% of World oil demand (56 Mbbl/day).

A good video that discusses Ross Tessien's article is located at:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aUC6lsLr04I.

NOTE: The anchors are a little “campy” in their format and presentation, but the data is solid.

One of the curtailments in EV adoption is “range anxiety”. The range of EV's currently meet the requirements most people drive in a typical day. EV's are capable of being recharged overnight at homewith a 120v/15amp circuit or 4X faster with a 220v hookup. Range anxiety would realistically be for long trips or vacation activities that exceed the round trip charge of an EV. Advancements and improvements in battery technology and the addition of fast charging stations are beginning to remove the public's range anxiety. A great example is Hyundai which is introducing to North America (2019) a compact EV SUV with a rated range of 400+ km.

EV battery performance is increasing while the costs to manufacture EV batteries is dropping. The chart by https://electrek.co/ clearly demonstrates the dropping cost per kWh with EV batteries. Tesla claimed in January 2017 that their battery manufacturing costs were below $190/kWh.

According to https://www.sciencedirect.com/, EV's have a smaller overall lifetime carbon footprint, including significantly lower total cost of ownership (TCO). The lower carbon footprint and TCO make EV's a vehicle of choice for fleet operations and consumers.

Farm EquipmentPrimarily in Europe farm equipment manufactures have and are developing a host of electric farm vehicles. John Deere has developed an electric tractor called SESAM (Sustainable Energy Supply for

Agricultural Machinery). SESAM has two 150 kW electric motors, 130 kWh lithium-ion battery with up to four hours or 55 kilometres of range.

The Fendt e100 Vario is an all electric tractor from equipment manufacture Fendt. Producing 50 kW output (equivalent to 67 hp) with a sustained working range of 5 hours under normal working conditions. Supercharging allows for an 80% charge in 40 minutes.

The growing roll out of EV tractors demonstrates the direction that farm equipment industries are heading.

Summary

Vehicle and equipment manufactures from around the world are clearly moving towards replacing their ICE models with EV's. EV's are cleaner, quieter, more energy efficient and have a lower total cost of ownership than comparable ICE vehicles. The growth and continued market penetration of Tesla is very strong example of the acceptance and market adoption of EV's. EV's have moved from quirky lowrange cars from small unknown manufactures to high performing luxury cars from well established car manufactures with strong market demand. Quick charging sites, battery advancements and a national commitment to reduce greenhouse gases will further drive EV market penetration while inversely reducing oil demand.

Renewable EnergyMost renewable energy is concentrated in wind and photoelectric (solar) panels. With solar experiencing the fastest market growth and technological advancements. Solar panels currently have anefficiency between 15% to 22% towards converting the power of the sun into energy.

The cost of solar panels per Kilowatt has also been dropping while the quality and efficiency per squaremeter is increasing.

1977 = $77.00US per watt2013 = $00.64US per watt2018 = $00.34US per watt

Consumer acceptance and support has grown to the point where solar panels are now part of the “factory package” in many travel trailers, RV's, high end homes, etc. According to the Solar Energy Industry Association, since 2006 solar energy production has grown at an annual rate of 59%.

In 2014 Michigan State University created a fully transparent solar panel. These first generation transparent panels have a low energy efficiency of only 0.5 to 1%. Enough power for “on demand window darkening”. A valuable element for building owners to lower energy intensive cooling loads byreducing solar gain during summer months.

Solar panels create 12 volt direct current (DC) power which is converted into 120 volt alternating current (AC) that our homes and facilities use. An inverter converts DC power into usable AC current. The paradox is that the AC power is converted back into DC power for computers and server rooms. Creating additional heat loads which adds to a facilities cooling demands.

Duck CurveThe duck curve chart was first publishedby the California Independent SystemOperator (CAISO) in 2013. The duckcurve is a graph representing a typicalday's power demands and the imbalancebetween peak power and renewableenergy production.

The duck curve chart shows energydemands drop off around mid-morningand continues to drop until late in theafternoon, with a sharp rise in demandbeginning in the early evening hours.With peak demand around 9 pm.

A pressure power companies have with accepting solar power production is that solar production is at it's greatest during the midday during the lowest utility demands followed by solar power production dropping off as power demand increases. Inverse of the power grid's requirements.

Summary

For renewable energy to become commercially viable the duck curve must be resolved. Until the duck curve issue is resolved the value of renewable energy for power grid production is limited. Modern expectations require instant power when we turn on any electrical appliance. Having this capacity always available at a moments notice requires quick and available capacity.

The pressure for power companies is:1. they must always have enough power available at a moments notice for peak and unexpected

power requirements,2. solar and wind power do not provide a steady dependable power supply,3. to remain efficient and avoid over power generation, power companies would have to reduce

power generation when supplementing with solar or wind power,4. it is unrealistic to start and stop traditional fossil fuel power plants. Stationary power generators

require energy and time to “spool up”. Causing delays in supplying immediate power when demanded. Starting and stopping power generators reduces service life and increases maintenance costs. Therefore it is more economical and customer friendly to keep power generating equipment running, negating the value of adding renewable energy supply.

Battery AdvancesTo resolve the duck curve, range anxiety and recharging times, batteries need to evolve and they are. The most important battery challenge to resolve in this writer's opinion is the duck curve. To achieve this a battery needs to be cost effective, have a low total cost of ownership, longevity and capable of handling quick charging and discharging demands without damaging or reducing the life of the battery.

There has been an explosion of investment and research in the last ten years into new and alternative battery technologies. We are literally on the verge of a battery powered revolution. The range of materials being developed for batteries is staggering.

Liquid Metal BatteryThe liquid metal battery is designed to use magnesium and antimony as the negative and positive electrodes with low cost molten salt as the electrolyte. The liquid metal battery is expected to last decades, is very modular, cannot overheat and will not catch fire or explode while working between 400°C to 700°C. Impressive qualities for any battery.

The liquid metal battery developed at MIT primarily by Donald Sadoway (a Canadian) is robust and scalable. Ideal for fixed installations where costs are critical but size and weight are not, such as solar fields, wind farms or power generating stations. This is an ideal battery for levelling production while servicing peak demand. Liquid Metal Batteries have virtually no limits for scaling up. This battery is available in 200 kilowatt-hours to hundreds of megawatt-hours. Commercial availability is expected within the next ten years.

(Source https://energy.mit.edu/news/a-battery-of-molten-metals/)

Mr. Sadoway also provides a great TED presentation describing his battery and its principles athttps://www.ted.com/talks/donald_sadoway_the_missing_link_to_renewable_energy

Molten Silicon or “Sun in a Box”Another battery advancement from MIT is referred to as “sun in a box”. Solar or wind generation would be used to heat a silicon medium up to 2,371 degrees Celsius. The stored heat is available to produce steam for electrical generation.

The new design stores heat generated by excess electricity from solar or wind powerin large tanks of white-hot molten silicon, and then converts the light from the glowing metal back into electricity when it’s needed. The researchers estimate that such a system would be vastly more affordable than lithium-ion batteries, which have been proposed as a viable, though expensive, method to store renewable

energy. They also estimate that the system would cost about half as much as pumpedhydroelectric storage — the cheapest form of grid-scale energy storage to date.

(Source: https://news.mit.edu/2018/liquid-silicon-store-renewable-energy-1206)

CO2 BatteryBetar Gallant and her research team at MIT have developed a proof-of-concept approach for utilizing CO2 as a battery component. Capturing CO2 into an energy producing battery where the CO2 becomes the recharging agent.

“[The] CO2 battery continuously converts carbon dioxide into a carbonate as it discharges.”

(Source: https://news.mit.edu/2018/new-lithium-battery-convert-carbon-dioxide)

Currently power plants require up to 30% of their power production to capture carbon. This CO2 battery could remove this burden while providing additional onsite power. Getting this battery from proof-of-concept to an industry ready roll out could be anywhere from ten to thirty years out.

Fluoride BatteryFluoride batteries have the potential to last eight times longer than current lithium-ion batteries. Fluoride batteries have high energy densities making them a very powerful battery. Current fluoride batteries require an operating temperature of 150C to operate properly. Advances utilizing liquid components has created a “Fluoride batter” that works at room temperatures.

The key to making the fluoride batteries work in a liquid rather than a solid state turned out to be an electrolyte liquid called bis(2,2,2-trifluoroethyl)ether, or BTFE. This solvent is what helps keep the fluoride ion stable so that it can shuttle electrons back and forth in the battery. [Simon] Jones [chemist - Jet Propulsion Laboratory] says his intern at the time, Victoria Davis, who now studies at the University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, was the first to think of trying BTFE. While Jones did not have much hope it would succeed, the team decided to try it anyway and were surprised it worked so well.

Source www.sciencedaily.com

Solid-State BatterySolid-state batteries have the potential for higher energy density, with the durability to handle faster charging and discharging times while operating cooler than lithium-ion batteries. Solid-state batteries are projected to exceed 23,000 charge/discharge cycles. Proof-of-concept has been established in laboratory settings with the utilization of new component materials. Getting from the lab bench to a feasible production version could be up to ten to thirty years away. Vehicle manufactures such as BMW, VW and a consortium of Japaneses auto manufactures are investing heavily into solid-state battery research for application into their EV's. An EV battery that can be fully charged in seven minutes, hold extremely high energy density, have minimal degradation and a working range from minus 30 C to 100 C would represent a major leap forward.

(Source: https://news.utexas.edu/2017/02/28/goodenough-introduces-new-battery-technology/)

(Source: https://futurism.com/massachusetts-solid-state-battery-company/)

Summary

The list of battery developments barely scratches the surface of an incredibly dynamic area of scientificresearch.

The liquid metal battery is in my opinion the most commercial ready battery. Ideally suited for storing renewable power in an inexpensive, large, high capacity, safe battery with a long service life. Capable of resolving the duck curve and over production for peak energy demands. As we have discussed powercompanies must have enough energy produced and ready to meet peak energy demands without interruption to their customers. A scenario that creates the burning of more fossil fuels to ensure power is constantly available for unexpected and peak power demands.

The liquid metal battery will allow power companies to generate power at a lower and more cost effective steady state. Banking extra power in the liquid metal batteries to address peak or sudden demand loads.

This one application can:

• reduce greenhouse gases and operating costs for power companies as they move towards balanced power generation with smaller power generating stations,

• lower operating costs will /can translate to lower electrical bills for consumers. Providing additional incentives for EV ownership,

• remove over production of electrical energy for possible unexpected electrical demands by using cost effective energy storage,

• increase the adoption and value of renewable energy sources and net metering.

Machine Learning (Artificial Intelligence)Levy and Murnane (2004) published a paper “Why People Still Matter”, a paper where they pointed out the difficulties for Artificial Intelligence (AI) to replicate human perception.

“But executing a left turn against oncoming traffic involves so many factors that it is hard to image discovering the set of rules that can replicate a driver's behaviour [...]”

By 2010 Google announced that they had modified a Toyota Prius to be fully autonomous. AI through machine learning had reached human perception abilities once considered unattainable only six years before.

Machine learning is defined by Emerj (formerly TechEmergence) as:

“Machine Learning is the science of getting computers to learn and act like humans do, and improve their learning over time in autonomous fashion, by feeding them data and information in the form of observations and real-world interactions.”

Before moving into self driving/autonomous vehicles (AV) it is extremely important to understand that machine learning is the key element in the success of AV. Machine learning in its simplest form is an algorithm/program developed to learn as data is developed or exposed to the program. There are two prime learning methods, supervised learning and unsupervised learning.

Supervised learning is when the algorithms are trained with known data. Typically applied where historical data is used to predict likely future events. Such as forecasting flu outbreaks, credit card habits, diagnosing health symptoms, interpreting x-rays, stock markets, etc. Unsupervised learning is when there is no historical or limited data to “load” into the algorithm. The algorithm must figure out “on the fly” what the data is and how to interpret that data.

The speed of AI to learn in AV is based on two important variables. (1) Machine learning is the critical key allowing the program to learn continuously and adapt immediately and independently without the need for human intervention. (2) AV's are linked together within a network allowing all the AV's to learn as one in real time. Further enhancing AI's exponential growth in learning, self updating and adapting.

Car manufactures and other big players are investing billions get to the finish line first. According to The Hill ( https://thehill.com/policy/transportation/355696-driverless-car-investments-top-80-billion ) $80 billion was invested into this technology between 2014 and 2017.

As the technology becomes ingrained, pressures on Governments to allow fully AV on public roadwayswill grow from companies looking for a return on their investments and the public demanding the freedom and convenience AV's offer.

Mining OperationsGovernment traffic laws do not apply on privateproperty such as open pit mining operations. Selfdriving vehicles are already in use on mining sitestoday. In 2016 Komatsu built a 2,700 HPautonomous truck. Suncor Energy a Calgary basedmining company has begun one of the largestinvestments into autonomous mining vehicles in theworld. Suncor Energy is preparing to implementdriver-less ore-hauling trucks over six years startingin 2019, impacting over 400 high paying jobs.

(Picture Source:www. cbc.ca )

FarmingIn 2017, Harper Adams University successfully planted, tended (spraying, fertilizing, etc.) and harvested spring barley without a human every stepping foot onto the field. AI in farming operations has fully arrived and will allow one farmer to manage massively large tracks of land without additional human help. A comprehensive article on these advancements is available at: https://singularityhub.com/2017/10/30/the-farms-of-the-future-will-run-on-ai-and-robots/

Case IH and New Holland both introduced their new autonomous tractors at 2016 Farm Progress Show. Case IH unveiled an autonomous tractor concept that had been developed by combining the latest in tractor engineering and technology. New Holland showcased their T8 Blue Power tractor that looks like a normal standard tractor but is an unmanned vehicle that is fully autonomous and can be monitored and controlled via a desktop computer or via a portable tablet interface.

(Source: www.bigag.com )

Spraying Advancements in sensors, robots and GPS is already having a significant impact on farming operations. Advanced equipment is able to apply insecticides and/or fertilizer (mixed on the fly) separately for each individual plant with the exact dose required as the equipment passes over. Resulting in higher crop productivity while reducing water, fertilizers and pesticides. A process which eliminates over application and runoff of fertilizers and pesticides.

The runoff of phosphorus and nitrogen cause rapid growth of blue green algae, creating poisonous cyanobacteria toxin. The blue green algae blooms have the appearance of a pea-soup and larger bloomsare now visible from space. When the algae dies the bacteria falls to the lake bottom to be consumed bymicrobes. These microbes require oxygen to consume the dead algae, thus removing oxygen in large areas.

CarsSemi-autonomous vehicles are currently available and in use today. Currently semi-autonomous vehicles are required by law for the driver to remain alert and available to take control at a moments notice. Semi-autonomous vehicles in their current form represent more of an advance cruise control feature than a true AV. There are numerous articles discussing and predicting that between 2020 and 2030 fully AV vehicles will become common place on public roads.

Google, Uber and other players are banking heavily on AV becoming an integral part of vehicle sharing. EV's with their lowest cost of total vehicle ownership will most likely be their fleet vehicle of choice.

A positive for municipal governments is AV can return home after dropping off passengers or go to a remote public parking/recharging facility. Because AV can go anywhere independently, public parking facilities can be located where they are the most cost effective. Freeing up large amounts of valuable urban space currently allocated for providing parking that is close and convenient.

AV's can effectively slip stream behind each other for energy conservation providing additional energy savings on long distant or freeway travels. AV's are able to travel at a consistent rate reducing or eliminating traffic jambs. AV's provide mobility for people who otherwise could not driver a car. AV's will also allow the occupants to safely engage in work, game, social interaction, sleep, etc. while in transit.

AV's will also have lower accident rates, resulting in dropping insurance rates and corresponding healthcare costs. The savings have been studied by the US Energy Information Administrations “Study of Potential Energy Consumption Impacts of Connected and Automated Vehicles” March 2017

A 2015 McKinsey & Company report estimated that driverless cars could reduce traffic accidents by 90%. The study indicated that this would have public health benefits and wouldchange the automotive insurance landscape, which took in nearly $200 billion in premiums in 2014. The insurance industry is engaged in the transformation that automated vehicle technologies are projected to have on vehicle safety and operation. In December 2015, an article in the Delaware Business Times reported that “self-driving cars could turn insuranceindustry on its head.” Similar stories have been reported by the Wall Street Journal, Los Angeles Times, and Bloomberg. Each news source has portrayed driverless cars as animminent threat that insurers are “scrambling to figure out” to survive. The insurance industry is aware of the development of automated vehicle technologies. Although most insurers have been slow to take action, some have been making strategic investments to prepare themselves for a transition in the industry.

Fully autonomous vehicles will create one of the largest technological disruptions with far reaching consequences for governments, society and people.

Summary

AI is one technological disruption that will have a very deep impact on society, government revenues and climate change. The Oxford University published a paper in 2013 called “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible are Jobs to Computerization?”

Our findings thus imply that as technology races ahead, low-skill workers will reallocate to tasks requiring creative and social intelligence. For workers to win the race, however, they will have to acquire creative and social skills.”

The researchers using scientific methodology estimated the probability that AI would be able to replaceover 700 job categories. Two hundred occupations have a replacement probability over 85%. (see APPENDIX A)

Since 2012, Professor Erik Brynjolfsson from MIT Sloan School of Management has been identifying the trend since 2000 of robotics displacing well paying jobs in North America.

Brynjolfsson and McAfee still believe that technology boosts productivity and makes societies wealthier, but they think that it can also have a dark side: technological

progress is eliminating the need for many types of jobs and leaving the typical workerworse off than before. Brynjolfsson can point to a second chart indicating that median income is failing to rise even as the gross domestic product soars. “It’s the great paradox of our era,” he says. “Productivity is at record levels, innovation has never been faster, and yet at the same time, we have a falling median income and we have fewer jobs. People are falling behind because technology is advancing so fast and our skills and organizations aren’t keeping up.”

Since 2000 simple robotics has primarily impacted blue collar jobs. The US Department of Labour's graph shows the impact of simple robotics on employment since 2000. The next technological disruption of AI is going to impact everyone and every occupation.

(Image source: seekinalpha.com)

[....], beginning in 2000, the lines diverge; productivity continues to rise robustly, but employment suddenly wilts. By 2011, a significant gap appears between the two lines,showing economic growth with no parallel increase in job creation. Brynjolfsson and McAfee call it the “great decoupling.” And Brynjolfsson says he is confident that technology is behind both the healthy growth in productivity and the weak growth in jobs. [graph next page]

Source: https://www.technologyreview.com/s/515926/how-technology-is-destroying-jobs/

Social impacts resulting from over 200 occupations being replaced by AI within the next forty years is extremely high. A proactive policy approach would be required by Federal and Provincial governments within the next five to ten years in order to mitigate and manage the impacts of AI. Without comprehensive and integrated government polices in place, society is going to experience high social unrest. People who are displaced by AI will have no realistic opportunity to re-enter the job market.

From a capital planning perspective these economic and demographic changes will directly impact our ability to renew or upgrade capital/assets. Reduced tax revenues will limit funding for all but the most critical maintenance and capital renewal projects. Facilities built prior to this era must be relevant, resilient in design and able to weather through this turbulent period.

Medical AdvancesMedical Imaging

Medicine, treatments and diagnostic equipment has historically experienced accelerating technological advancement. For example, the development of imaging within the human body.

• In 1895 X-rays were accidentally discovered by Wilhelm Conrad Rontgen,

• 76 years later in 1971 Computed Tomography (CT) was introduced into medical practice,

• 2 years later in 1973 positron emission tomography (PET) was available for diagnostics,

• 3 years later in 1980 magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) entered into diagnostic practice.

All the imaging devices identified above are continuously updated and improved for imaging quality and safety for patients and staff. Each new technological advancement is also accelerating.

MRI's are still the dominate diagnostic tool, having undergone multiple improvements with increasing diagnostic ranges. Such as ( https://www.itnonline.com ) Lung MRI, Cardiac MRI, 71'MRI (doubling the static magnetic field), Silent MRI, Weight-bearing MRI, etc. All these advancements are improvingaccuracy for earlier diagnosis and treatment.

MRI's are also being combined with linear accelerators forreal time imaging of tumours during treatment. One unit was installed into the Odette Cancer Centre’s bunker at theSunnybrook Health Sciences Centre in Toronto. Requiringcutting a hole into the ceiling of the bunker in order to lower the 6 tonne unit. Picture Source:

(http://health.sunnybrook.ca/cancer/mr-linac-game-changing-radiation-technology/)

Smart Phones

Technological advancements with smart phones and peripheral devices is another area experiencing extreme advancement and market adoption. Smart phones allow for instantaneous real-time diagnosticsand updating for medical monitoring, testing and diagnosis. Coupled with nanobots and AI, technological impacts to medical procedures, labs and hospitals will be substantial.

Whitesides Reach Group at Harvard University has developed a methodology to create a “lab on a postage stamp”. Using three simple steps (1) design, (2) print and (3) melt to produce a low cost and effective diagnostic tool. The colours produced provide disease markers that can be read by a smart phone. The data is uploaded to a lab or computer program for comprehensive analysis. George Whitesides provides a great explanation of this process and other field ready technologies in this TED talk, https://www.ted.com/talks/george_whitesides_a_lab_the_size_of_a_postage_stamp#t-361288

(Source: Yale Global Health Review)

Smart phone technology, software and peripherals currently on the horizon will further improve, impactand change healthcare services. Lowering healthcare costs, providing earlier detection and increasing the accuracy and quality of the diagnostics.

Cancer Treatments

Actinium-225 is a radioactive isotope that is added to a molecule called a ligand. Ligand's will only attach to cancer cells. Injected into a patient this combination targets metastases in any tissue. The actinium-225 then explodes with micro blast of alpha particles tearing the DNA of the cancer cell they are attached to. Clinical trials with stage 4 prostate cancer patients has resulted with their cancers practically wiped out in as little as three treatments.

The European Commission EU Science Hub published in December 21, 2016 regarding the promise of actinium-225 in cancer treatments.

Two patients that had previously not responded to available standard treatments, including surgery, external radiation, hormonal and chemotherapy, havereceived 225Actinium-PSMA-617 as experimental therapy. Several months into the therapy, PSA values have dropped below the detection limit (0.1 ng/ml) from values initially surpassing 3000 ng/ml and 419 ng/ml respectively. To date, 23 and 15 months after their respective treatments, both patients remain in very good condition. Prior to the treatment, their life

expectancy was of 2-4 months.

(Source https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/news/prostate-cancer-alpha-therapy-shows-impressive-results )

Unfortunately actinium-225 is the rarest drug on earth and was originally produced only as a by-product of nuclear weapons production. Canada's Triumf particle accelerator is working on capturing actinium-225. Currently the entire world production of actinium-225 is equal to a few grains of sand.

(Source: https://nationalpost.com/news/canadian-lab-takes-a-shot-at-producing-cancer-killing-treatment-dubbed-the-rarest-drug-on-earth)

Another advancement in cancer treatment was announced on January 28, 2019 in The Jerusalem Post that Israeli scientists have developed a new anti-cancer drug treatment base on SoAP technology.

“We believe we will offer in a year’s time a complete cure for cancer,” said Dan Aridor,

Aridor, chairman of the board of AEBi and CEO Dr. Ilan Morad, say their treatment,which they call MuTaTo (multi-target toxin) is essentially on the scale of a cancer antibiotic – a disruption technology of the highest order.

(Source: https://www.jpost.com/HEALTH-SCIENCE/A-cure-for-cancer-Israeli-scientists-say-they-think-they-found-one-578939)

Many “miracle cures” in the past have failed to materialize. Should their treatment prove successful, a cure for cancer could be anywhere between five to fifteen years out.

Summary

Medical treatments and advancements are accelerating with technological disruptions providing longer and healthier lives. The key for capital/asset planning is developing flexibility within our facility designs to ensure the longest and most useful asset life as possible is incorporated into our initial designs.

Predicting technological impacts on Healthcare is more opaque than in other industries. Hospitals are built to last a minimum of fifty years or more within an industry that has historically seen technologicaldisruptions every seven years. Going forward technological disruptions and treatment advances will continue to accelerate while improving patient outcomes.

Building a hospital is one of the most expensive endeavours a government can undertake. It is far too expensive for hospitals to become obsolete before they reach the end of their useful designed life. For example, the South Health Campus Hospital in Calgary was completed in 2012 for 1.3 billion dollars. The South Health Campus is 237,943 square meters (2,561,200 sq. ft.) with 269 beds and 11 operating rooms with a built cost of $5,463.49 per square meter. The costs to build and outfit hospitals is a long term investment within an industry of constant and accelerating change. Therefore a hospital should be designed and built with as much flexibility in the design as possible to allow for the accommodation and incorporation of new technologies with the least amount of disruption and retrofitting cost.

Heathcare is a governments single most expensive line item. Long term effective capital planning in healthcare is critical given the extreme costs associated with building, upgrading and maintaining heathcare facilities.

3D Printing3D printing was originally developed and used by Hideo Kodama of Nagoya Municipal Industrial Research Institute in 1981. 3D printers build three dimensional objects by applying thin layers of eithera liquid or powder that fuse with the preceding layer. By 1988 the technology was refined and made available for the consumer models we use today. The technology has seen constant enhancements and growing consumer interest.

A 2015 report by Wohlers Associates, a leading 3D printing analyst firm, estimated an annual 31 percent growth in the 3D printing industry between 2014 and 2020. In 2014, the 3D print industry produced approximately $4 billion global revenue. In 2016, over 275,000 3D printers were sold worldwide according to Wohler’s yearly report. Project 3ed growth shows that 3D printing will ultimately generate more than$21 billion in revenue across the globe. (Source: https://3dinsider.com)

In 2012 Filabot developed a system that allows for a 3D printer to print with a wider range of plastics.

In 2015, Carbon3D ( https://www.carbon3d.com/ ) created a 3D printer inspired by the Terminator 2 movie. Carbon3D's printer creates objects from a pool of material, with the object forming as it rises out of the pool of material. The Carbon3D process has three significant advantages over the layering process.

1. Creates a “true” 3D printed object.

2. Resolves a serious structural weakness along the fuse lines inherit with layering methods.

3. 100 times faster than the layering method.

Medical 3D printing with hydrogels creates scaffolds of organs (https://www.ted.comey/talks/anthony_atala_printing_a_human_kidn ey ). have now advanced to creating multiple vascular networks that can mimic the complexity of the human body. (https://www.fastcompany.com/90342770/scientists-just-took-the-next-step-on-the-quest-to-3d-print-new-human-organs?partner=feedburner)

The generative design tools we create at Nervous System open up new ways of “growing” structures with the intricacy and level of customization needed to engineer living tissues.” Ultimately, she says, it might be possible to 3D-print lungs that perform better than the real thing. “I think the real challenge is, can we design something more efficient than human lungs?

3D printers allow industry, local suppliers and hobbyist to build objects with incredibly complex internal structures that were impossible with all previous technologies. 3D printers allow for greater design freedom and creativity in solving engineering issues.

3D printing also provides:

• tangible product design and testing,

• creative designs with customization freedom,

• fast and cost effective; bench, to testing, toproduction,

• unlimited shapes or geometry,

• reduced production waste,

• reduced innovation risk.

(Source: 3D Print HQ)

Examples of 3D printing.

1 2 3

1) www2.deloitte.com 3D opportunity in tooling.

2) A simple but totally ingenious measuring cube for use in the kitchen. Each side of the cube has a slot to measure out a foodstuff in either cups (for American cooking) or metric (for everyone else). Best printed in PETGmaterial to maximize food safety. Who made it: iomaa

3) A fully assembled platform jack, 3D printed as one piece. No messing around with multiple parts. The adjustable height can be used to raise or prop up an object of reasonable weight. Who made it: Intentional3D

(Source: https://www.thingiverse.com/)

3D Printing Allows 1) Creativity

• Corporations and individuals will have an almostlimitless medium to create three dimensional objectsor parts.

• An explosion of new products and artistic worksavailable on global and local levels.

• Unlimited complexity

• Growing range of available materials.

(Picture Source Makezine.com)

2) Local Manufacturing

• Rapid replacement parts and whole products available for local manufacture either by creating or purchasing the designs on line.

• Manufactures would not be required to build, stock, package and ship thousands of parts Nationwide in anticipation of possible demand. The process will be replaced by just in time on site manufacturing. Reducing waste and cost for the manufacture and consumer.

3) Healthcare

• Bones

• Printing of customized implants andprosthetic parts

• Heart valves

• Synthetic skin printed right ontopatients

• Water proof, airy, lightweight andcomfortable casts

• Customized organs for organ transplants (Source: pressherald.

Summary

(Source: https://www.htxt.co.za/2013/07/01/3d-printed-casts-make-broken-bones-look-cool/) (Source: nrinewstoday.com)

3D printing is another technology that is advancing exponentially. The only limit is the size of the printer, materials used and the developers imagination. 3D printing provides inventors, hobbyists, developers, artists and manufacturers unlimited freedom with rapid prototyping for proof of concept.

From a capital perspective 3D printing will reduce maintenance cost. More importantly owners can produce replacement parts for equipment that use to be considered obsolete and requiring replacement.

Pulling It All Together

OverviewThe application of predictive analytics has not been applied in this article to anticipate the probability of all or any of the technological disruptions occurring. I have identified each technological disruption separately but in reality they all tend to overlap and influence the other. Creating a cascading effect.

A 40 year capital planning horizon for comprehensive and integrated capital/asset planning ensures we are doing the right project, not only at the right time but also with the right design by removing as much risk of early obsolescence as possible.

Failure to acknowledge and plan for technological disruptions or the importance of knowing the capitalrenewal rates when developing capital plans and projects has serious financial and service delivery ramifications on the future. Identifying and tracking potential impacts on capital investments is a critical step in the capital/asset planning process. Proceeding blindly without considering and acknowledging all the components that can or will critically effect a portfolio is at best a negligence against the future; at worst incompetence.

Big Data drives the most successful organizations in the world today, such as Facebook, Google, Amazon and Netflix. These large corporations aggressively seek data for conducting predictive analytics which informs and develops the basis for their strategic business decisions. In my opinion

governments should also be embracing and capturing “big data” and combining it with geomatics for deeper insights when developing policy and plans for the future capital investments.

Planning an operating budget with a five year rolling planning horizon is good resouce planning but ineffective capital/asset planning. This article (hopefully) has provided the case for the importance of a using a minimum 40 year horizon for comprehensive strategic capital/asset planning.

Capital Recommendations and ObservationsRenewal energy will eclipse fossil fuel burning when a battery becomes commercially available that can solve the duck curve. This will create a milestone moment, with an explosion in adoption and growth with renewable energy options. All capital projects should therefore at a minimum have core infrastructure incorporated into their designs to allow for the most cost effective installation and upgrading of renewable energy sources and power distribution. Growth of renewable energy and battery advancements will further reduce fossil fuel demands, greenhouse gases and electrical costs.

Electric vehicles, autonomous vehicles and artificial intelligence (Big3) will have the deepest impacts, representing a double edge sword. On the negative side the Big3 are going to displace significant amounts of working people over every employment sector. Impacting income tax revenues and causingserious social turmoil as society adjusts to this new rapidly evolving economy.

On the positive side the Big3 will reduce vehicle accidents, injuries, insurance claims and healthcare costs. Streets can become narrower and more accommodating for bicycles and pedestrians. Airline companies will most likely drop costly short commuter flights as AV can provide convenient low cost transportation that allows for continued productivity or overnight travel.

Canada's commitment to the Paris Accord requires a reduction in carbon emissions by 385 tonnes by 2030. Having pasted the CO2 tipping point years ago, all we have left is a potential to mitigate the consequences of our past inaction.

Five key technological disruptions will play a major role in supporting this effort.

1. Batteries

2. Renewable energy

3. Artificial intelligence

4. Electric vehicles

The pie charts below are from the Government of Canada's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

(Source:https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/climate-change/greenhouse-gas-emissions/second-biennial-report.html#BR-Sec2)

According to fleetcarma.com as of Q3 2018, 35,000 EV's were sold in Canada representing a 158% increase from the preceding year.

Thirty five thousand EV's in Canada represent 0.16% EV's to ICE cars. (Wikipedia – Registered cars in Canada 24,566,696 - 2017). The highest increases in EV sales occurred in Provinces providingadditional government incentives.

Canada's CO2 target for 2030 is a reduction of 291 mega-tonnes (Mt) from a projected (medium) 815 Mt to 524 Mt of CO2.

The IPCC graph shows 204 Mt of CO2 for transportation in Canada. The average ICE car produces 5.171 tonnes of CO2 per year. When applied to all the registered cars in Canada (2017) this represents a total of 127 Mt of CO2. This indicates that 77 Mt of CO2 is being created from other formsof transportation vehicles.

(CO2 Target Source: Government of Canada's Climate Change report)

Should the total number of cars on the road in Canada remain stagnant and EV adoption plateaus to 35% per year (very conservative estimate not supported by trending) the CO2 reduction by 2030 in Canada would be around 7.36 Mt of CO2. By 2040 Canada would mathematically reaches 100% of ICEcars replaced by EV's. Representing148Mt or 51% of Canada's Paris Accord 2030 target.

Replacing all personnel vehicles in Canada with EV's will not reach Canada's Paris Accord's 2030 requirements. With additional Government incentives EV's could provide a significant impact sooner towards reaching our CO2 goals.

However when EV adoption is combined with advanced battery technologies and renewable energies impacting other industries, then Canada would have stronger probability of meeting the required CO2 emission levels of the Paris Accord.

YEAR EV SALES NEW EV

2017 0.2 19,236 0.08% 99468.45 0.10 0.03%2018 35,000 0.35 3,847 38,847 0.16% 200877.05 0.20 0.07%2019 38,847 0.35 13,597 52,444 0.21% 271184.01 0.27 0.09%2020 52,444 0.35 18,355 70,799 0.29% 366098.42 0.37 0.13%2021 70,799 0.35 24,780 95,579 0.39% 494232.86 0.49 0.17%2022 95,579 0.35 33,453 129,031 0.53% 667214.36 0.67 0.23%2023 129,031 0.35 45,161 174,192 0.71% 900739.39 0.90 0.31%2024 174,192 0.35 60,967 235,159 0.96% 1215998.18 1.22 0.42%2025 235,159 0.35 82,306 317,465 1.29% 1641597.54 1.64 0.56%2026 317,465 0.35 111,113 428,578 1.74% 2216156.68 2.22 0.76%2027 428,578 0.35 150,002 578,580 2.36% 2991811.52 2.99 1.03%2028 578,580 0.35 202,503 781,083 3.18% 4038945.55 4.04 1.39%2029 781,083 0.35 273,379 1,054,463 4.29% 5452576.49 5.45 1.87%2030 1,054,463 0.35 369,062 1,423,524 5.79% 7360978.26 7.36 2.53%2031 1,423,524 0.35 498,234 1,921,758 7.82% 9937320.66 9.94 3.41%2032 1,921,758 0.35 672,615 2,594,373 10.56% 13415382.89 13.42 4.61%2033 2,594,373 0.35 908,031 3,502,404 14.26% 18110766.90 18.11 6.22%2034 3,502,404 0.35 1,225,841 4,728,245 19.25% 24449535.31 24.45 8.40%2035 4,728,245 0.35 1,654,886 6,383,131 25.98% 33006872.67 33.01 11.34%2036 6,383,131 0.35 2,234,096 8,617,227 35.08% 44559278.10 44.56 15.31%2037 8,617,227 0.35 3,016,030 11,633,257 47.35% 60155025.44 60.16 20.67%2038 11,633,257 0.35 4,071,640 15,704,897 63.93% 81209284.35 81.21 27.91%2039 15,704,897 0.35 5,496,714 21,201,611 86.30% 109632533.87 109.63 37.67%2040 21,201,611 0.35 7,420,564 28,622,175 116.51% 148003920.72 148.00 50.86%

EST % INCREASE

CUMATIVE TOTAL

% of total cars

CO2 reduction tonnes

Mt CO2

% of 2030 Paris Accord Target

reduction -= 291 Mt

Capital Planning Going Forward

I believe the data and forecasts clearly identify the significance that technological disruptions will have on capital planning. Our capital investments of today must endure into the future and not become derelict testaments of a negligent past. Over the next 40 years, technological disruptions and climate change will have direct and changing impacts on our economy and society.

Capital projects started within the next ten years (or less) must have long term merit that complements the future. Assets should be designed with as much flexibility and future proofing as possible. There is strong evidence that during the following twenty to thirty years, society and governments will be under enormous stresses adapting to a rapidly changing environment. During this transition period resources will be restricted to only the most critical of capital projects.

Effective capital planning requires comprehensive strategic analysis.

Followed by action.

If you have any questions regarding this article please feel free to contact me at c ontracts2projects@ protonmail. com

Todd Macdonald PMP

APPENDIX A

Jobs Lost by Artificial Intelligence with 85% - 99% Probability0.85 Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products0.85 Meter Readers, Utilities0.85 Power Plant Operators0.85 Chemical Plant and System Operators0.85 Earth Drillers, Except Oil and Gas0.85 Nuclear Technicians0.86 Executive Secretaries and Executive Administrative Assistants0.86 Plant and System Operators, All Other0.86 Food Servers, Non-restaurant0.86 Sawing Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Wood0.86 Subway and Streetcar Operators0.86 Veterinary Assistants and Laboratory Animal Caretakers0.86 Cutting and Slicing Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders0.86 Real Estate Sales Agents0.86 Computer-Controlled Machine Tool Operators, Metal and Plastic0.86 Maintenance Workers, Machinery0.86 Correspondence Clerks0.87 Miscellaneous Agricultural Workers0.87 Forest and Conservation Workers0.87 Pourers and Casters, Metal0.87 Carpet Installers0.87 Paperhangers0.87 Buyers and Purchasing Agents, Farm Products0.87 Furniture Finishers0.87 Food Preparation Workers0.87 Floor Sanders and Finishers0.87 Parking Lot Attendants0.87 Highway Maintenance Workers0.88 Construction Laborers0.88 Production, Planning, and Expediting Clerks0.88 Semiconductor Processors0.88 Cartographers and Photogrammetrists0.88 Metal-Refining Furnace Operators and Tenders0.88 Separating, Filtering, Clarifying, Precipitating, and Still Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders0.88 Extruding and Forming Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Synthetic and Glass Fibers0.88 Terrazzo Workers and Finishers0.88 Tool Grinders, Filers, and Sharpeners0.88 Rail Car Repairers0.89 Bakers0.89 Medical Transcriptionists0.89 Stonemasons0.89 Bus Drivers, School or Special Client0.89 Technical Writers0.89 Riggers

0.89 Rail-Track Laying and Maintenance Equipment Operators0.89 Stationary Engineers and Boiler Operators0.89 Sewing Machine Operators0.89 Taxi Drivers and Chauffeurs0.90 Human Resources Assistants, Except Payroll and Timekeeping0.90 Medical and Clinical Laboratory Technologists0.90 Reinforcing Iron and Rebar Workers0.90 Roofers0.90 Crane and Tower Operators0.90 Traffic Technicians0.90 Transportation Inspectors0.90 Patternmakers, Metal and Plastic0.90 Molders, Shapers, and Casters, Except Metal and Plastic0.90 Appraisers and Assessors of Real Estate0.90 Pump Operators, Except Wellhead Pumpers0.90 Signal and Track Switch Repairers0.91 Gaming and Sports Book Writers and Runners0.91 Musical Instrument Repairers and Tuners0.91 Tour Guides and Escorts0.91 Mechanical Door Repairers0.91 Food and Tobacco Roasting, Baking, and Drying Machine Operators and Tenders0.91 Gas Compressor and Gas Pumping Station Operators0.91 Medical Records and Health Information Technicians0.91 Coating, Painting, and Spraying Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders0.91 Multiple Machine Tool Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic0.91 Rail Yard Engineers, Dinkey Operators, and Hostlers0.91 Electrical and Electronics Installers and Repairers, Transportation Equipment0.91 Dining Room and Cafeteria Attendants and Bartender Helpers0.91 Heat Treating Equipment Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic0.91 Geological and Petroleum Technicians0.91 Automotive Body and Related Repairers0.91 Patternmakers, Wood0.91 Extruding and Drawing Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic0.92 Office Machine Operators, Except Computer0.92 Pharmacy Technicians0.92 Loan Interviewers and Clerks0.92 Dredge Operators0.92 Insurance Sales Agents0.92 Cabinetmakers and Bench Carpenters0.92 Painting, Coating, and Decorating Workers0.92 Fence Erectors0.92 Plating and Coating Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic0.92 Retail Salespersons0.92 Combined Food Preparation and Serving Workers, Including Fast Food0.92 Production Workers, All Other0.92 Helpers–Carpenters0.93 Cooling and Freezing Equipment Operators and Tenders0.93 Fiberglass Laminators and Fabricators0.93 Service Unit Operators, Oil, Gas, and Mining

0.93 Conveyor Operators and Tenders0.93 Outdoor Power Equipment and Other Small Engine Mechanics0.93 Locomotive Firers0.93 Machine Feeders and Offbearers0.93 Model Makers, Metal and Plastic0.93 Radio, Cellular, and Tower Equipment Installers and Repairs0.93 Butchers and Meat Cutters0.93 Extruding, Forming, Pressing, and Compacting Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders0.93 Refuse and Recyclable Material Collectors0.93 Tax Examiners and Collectors, and Revenue Agents0.93 Forging Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic0.93 Industrial Truck and Tractor Operators0.94 Accountants and Auditors0.94 Drilling and Boring Machine Tool Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic0.94 Mail Clerks and Mail Machine Operators, Except Postal Service0.94 Waiters and Waitresses0.94 Meat, Poultry, and Fish Cutters and Trimmers0.94 Budget Analysts0.94 Cement Masons and Concrete Finishers0.94 Bicycle Repairers0.94 Coin, Vending, and Amusement Machine Servicers and Repairers0.94 Welders, Cutters, Solderers, and Brazers0.94 Couriers and Messengers0.94 Interviewers, Except Eligibility and Loan0.94 Cooks, Short Order0.94 Excavating and Loading Machine and Dragline Operators0.94 Helpers–Painters, Paperhangers, Plasterers, and Stucco Masons0.94 Hotel, Motel, and Resort Desk Clerks0.94 Tire Builders0.94 Door-to-Door Sales Workers, News and Street Vendors, and Related Workers0.94 First-Line Supervisors of Housekeeping and Janitorial Workers0.94 Agricultural Inspectors0.94 Paralegals and Legal Assistants0.95 Manicurists and Pedicurists0.95 Weighers, Measurers, Checkers, and Samplers, Recordkeeping0.95 Textile Cutting Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders0.95 Bill and Account Collectors0.95 Nuclear Power Reactor Operators0.95 Gaming Surveillance Officers and Gaming Investigators0.95 Library Assistants, Clerical0.95 Operating Engineers and Other Construction Equipment Operators0.95 Print Binding and Finishing Workers0.95 Animal Breeders0.95 Molding, Coremaking, and Casting Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic0.95 Electrical and Electronic Equipment Assemblers0.95 Adhesive Bonding Machine Operators and Tenders0.95 Landscaping and Groundskeeping Workers0.95 Grinding, Lapping, Polishing, and Buffing Machine Tool Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic

0.95 Postal Service Clerks0.95 Jewelers and Precious Stone and Metal Workers0.96 Dispatchers, Except Police, Fire, and Ambulance0.96 Receptionists and Information Clerks0.96 Office Clerks, General0.96 Compensation and Benefits Managers0.96 Switchboard Operators, Including Answering Service0.96 Counter Attendants, Cafeteria, Food Concession, and Coffee Shop0.96 Rock Splitters, Quarry0.96 Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive0.96 Surveying and Mapping Technicians0.96 Model Makers, Wood0.96 Textile Winding, Twisting, and Drawing Out Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders0.96 Locomotive Engineers0.96 Gaming Dealers0.96 Fabric Menders, Except Garment0.96 Cooks, Restaurant0.96 Ushers, Lobby Attendants, and Ticket Takers0.96 Billing and Posting Clerks0.97 Bridge and Lock Tenders0.97 Woodworking Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Except Sawing0.97 Team Assemblers0.97 Shoe Machine Operators and Tenders0.97 Electromechanical Equipment Assemblers0.97 Farm Labor Contractors0.97 Textile Bleaching and Dyeing Machine Operators and Tenders0.97 Dental Laboratory Technicians0.97 Crushing, Grinding, and Polishing Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders0.97 Grinding and Polishing Workers, Hand0.97 Pesticide Handlers, Sprayers, and Applicators, Vegetation0.97 Log Graders and Scalers0.97 Ophthalmic Laboratory Technicians0.97 Cashiers0.97 Camera and Photographic Equipment Repairers0.97 Motion Picture Projectionists0.97 Prepress Technicians and Workers0.97 Counter and Rental Clerks0.97 File Clerks0.97 Real Estate Brokers0.97 Telephone Operators0.97 Agricultural and Food Science Technicians0.97 Payroll and Timekeeping Clerks0.97 Credit Authorizers, Checkers, and Clerks0.97 Hosts and Hostesses, Restaurant, Lounge, and Coffee Shop0.98 Models0.98 Inspectors, Testers, Sorters, Samplers, and Weighers0.98 Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks0.98 Legal Secretaries0.98 Radio Operators

0.98 Driver/Sales Workers0.98 Claims Adjusters, Examiners, and Investigators0.98 Parts Salespersons0.98 Credit Analysts0.98 Milling and Planing Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic0.98 Shipping, Receiving, and Traffic Clerks0.98 Procurement Clerks0.98 Packaging and Filling Machine Operators and Tenders0.98 Etchers and Engravers0.98 Tellers0.98 Umpires, Referees, and Other Sports Officials0.98 Insurance Appraisers, Auto Damage0.98 Loan Officers0.98 Order Clerks0.98 Brokerage Clerks0.98 Insurance Claims and Policy Processing Clerks0.98 Timing Device Assemblers and Adjusters0.99 Data Entry Keyers0.99 Library Technicians0.99 New Accounts Clerks0.99 Photographic Process Workers and Processing Machine Operators0.99 Tax Preparers0.99 Cargo and Freight Agents0.99 Watch Repairers0.99 Insurance Underwriters0.99 Mathematical Technicians0.99 Sewers, Hand0.99 Title Examiners, Abstractors, and Searchers0.99 Telemarketers