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2

Agenda Page

Market overview 2

Sub-benchmarks on the covered bond market 5

Municipal Schuldscheindarlehen remain on trend 11

ECB tracker 14

Charts & Graphs 20

Publication overview 26

Contacts 27

Find us on Bloomberg: NRDR <GO>

Issue volume – Covereds Issue volume – SSA

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5

10

15

20

25

30

35

08

/16

09

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10

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11

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12

/16

01

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02

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03

/17

04

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05

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06

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07

/17

EU

Rbn

AUBECACHCYCZDEDKESFIFRGBGRHUIEITLUNLNONZPLPTSESGTR

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

08

/16

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11

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07

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EU

Rb

n

Other

ES

AT

NL

FR

GE

SNAT

Source: Bloomberg, NORD/LB Fixed Income Research Source: Bloomberg, NORD/LB Fixed Income Research

Fixed Income Research

Covered Bond & SSA View 2 August 2017 30/2017

bbg://screens/NRDR

Covered Bond & SSA View 2 August 2017

NORD/LB Fixed Income Research

of 31

Covered Bonds Market overview

Analyst:

Matthias Melms, CIIA, CCrA

A peaceful summer on the

euro primary market

Yet again, there were no EUR-denominated benchmark transactions in the

last five days’ trading, which means that there were still only two new issues in

July from HSH (HSHN 0.1 07/20/20) and Crédit Agricole (ACASCF 0 7/8

08/02/27) of EUR 500m each. ABN also tapped the market for a further

EUR 1.25bn for its outstanding ABNANV 1 3/8 01/12/37, which increased the

outstanding volume to EUR 2.25bn (funged at 21 August). This makes it the

quietest July in the last six years. Last year, EUR 3.3bn was issued after the

Brexit referendum and in 2015, the issuance volume in July amounted to a

very substantial EUR 17.8bn. Overall, at EUR 77bn, issuance volume is down

on the level of the previous year (EUR 94.5bn), but matches the level of 2015

(EUR 77.0bn). Despite the meagre issuance amount, we still view achieve-

ment of our issuance target of EUR 122.0bn as a realistic prospect although

there is currently more downside risk. Outside the euro, Australia’s Westpac

ventured onto the market yesterday with a covered bond worth GBP 500m,

while Canadian issuers were primarily active last month. Accordingly, Cana-

da’s CIBC placed a USD-denominated covered bond worth USD 1.75bn on

the market, having previously issued a covered bond in sterling (GBP 525m).

The Bank of Montreal also issued a sterling floater worth GBP 800m. Conse-

quently, the trend whereby issuers have concentrated more on currencies

outside the euro this year than in previous years also continued in July. We

had already pointed to the fact that for issuers who have the USD as reference

value for their funding, an issue in USD is currently more advantageous than

funding in euros from a maturity of four years because of the trend in the euro-

USD basis swap.

Halkbank announces

covered bond issues

Last month, the state-owned Türkiye Halk Bankasi (Halkbank) announced that

it wanted to issue covered bonds in future. As is clear from a press statement,

the bank plans to issue the equivalent of EUR 1.5bn in total in various curren-

cies, both as fixed coupon bonds and as floaters. Consequently, eight Turkish

banks have issued covered bonds or announced an issue so far. We are ad-

hering to our position adopted in the past, namely that investors should ensure

they are sufficiently compensated for the immense political risks and the in-

creasing doubts about the Turkish legal system before considering invest-

ments. Since we do not consider this to be the case at present levels, we

therefore advise against investments in the country.

Trader’s comment Sales on the secondary market are subdued without any impetus emanating

from the primary market. Although interest among investors is currently sub-

dued, there is a marked preponderance of purchase requests, which can be

explained by the lack of primary supply forcing investors to buy on the sec-

ondary market. Interest is currently concentrated primarily in the maturities

between 5 and 10 years, although secondary purchases have not so far been

reflected in an appreciable spread performance.



of 31

SSA Market overview

Analyst:

Norman Rudschuck, CIIA

Demand for KfW funding

remains strong in Germany

In the first half of 2017, funding provided by the KfW banking group totalled

EUR 36.5bn (+1%). According to the bank, funding provided within Germany

did very well, exceeding the previous year’s figure by almost EUR 1bn (+3%)

with commitments of EUR 27.6bn. Among other things, this was helped by

continuing positive economic expectations among small and medium-sized

enterprises. Considerable interest in promotional loans for residential con-

struction finance among private customers also played a crucial role. The

business volume of KfW’s international financing has decreased to EUR 8.3bn

(-8%). New commitments by KfW Development Bank also fell whereas KfW

IPEX-Bank made a positive contribution, as did DEG. The earnings situation

developed positively with a consolidated profit of EUR 801m in the first half of

2017, profiting, in particular, from an improvement in the valuation result. The

balance sheet total decreased from EUR 507.0bn to EUR 496.7bn.

KfW and its funding

requirement

To fund its promotional business, KfW raised long-term funds equivalent to

EUR 46.9bn on the international capital markets as at 30 June 2017. Approx-

imately 51% of the funds raised were in EUR, while approximately 39% were

in USD. The remaining 10% consisted of six additional foreign currencies. It is

well known that a higher funding requirement was determined in total for 2017

and the figure was increased from the original EUR 75bn or so to EUR 75-

80bn. In the first half of the year, KfW assigned some EUR 2.2bn from its

“Renewable Energies Standard” programme, of which 85% was attributable to

wind energy projects and 12% to solar projects. More than three quarters of

the funds were devoted to projects in Germany and 13% to projects in France.

Here, the funding via an eight-year bond (XS1612940558) at a yield of 0.25%

was especially noteworthy. The volume amounted to EUR 2bn

KfW and L-Bank working

together to fund investment

in digitisation by SMEs

from Baden-Württemberg

KfW banking group and L-Bank, the promotional bank of the State of Ba-

den-Württemberg, have again concluded a global loan agreement based on

KfW’s ERP digitisation and innovation loan in the amount of EUR 200m, as

announced by both banks in a press release. KfW introduced this programme

on 1 July 2017 to support small and medium-sized enterprises with the financ-

ing of a broad range of digitisation and innovation projects. An identical

agreement was concluded on 15 September 2015. L-Bank has expanded and

improved its existing funding for innovation with the new “Innovation Financing

4.0”. It will therefore be the first state promotion institution to use the KfW’s

funding from the ERP digitisation and innovation loan to provide low-interest

loans to SMEs in Baden-Württemberg for digital and innovative investments.

The 4.0 programme can rightly be regarded as an example for linking federal

and state promotional funding. In addition to the cost of funding being reduced

by using funds from the ERP Special Fund, loans are subsidised by the Bun-

desland and L-Bank. Since 1999, more than 30 agreements for a volume of

some EUR 30bn have been concluded between the two banks.



of 31

EIB provides Castile

and León with

EUR 105m for SMEs

The European Investment Bank (EIB) and the Spanish region of Castile and

León (Bloomberg ticker: CASTIL) have signed two new agreements amount-

ing to EUR 105m. The loans will be used to promote growth in the region by

improving transportation and developing the infrastructure for rural tourism.

The EIB has already provided more than EUR 2bn for the region around Val-

ladolid since 1989. A total of EUR 400m is to be mobilised in growth segments

with the aid money, meaning that approximately 8,000 direct jobs can be cre-

ated by 2020. Some 900 jobs are to be created through infrastructure projects

during the construction phase up to 2020 of which some 100 can be viewed

as sustainable.

Moody’s confirms the

EU’s top credit rating

Moody’s (and Fitch) give the EU ratings of AAA and Aaa respectively. Both

rating agencies justify this with the existing political support for the EU from

the 28 member states despite lengthy budget negotiations. They also highlight

contributions to the budget from AAA-rated states as well as the complex pro-

tection mechanisms for investors. Even the upcoming Brexit will be unable to

harm this structure and commitment, whereas the significant credit risk is

viewed as negative. For S&P on the contrary, the protracted budget negotia-

tions indicated weaker political support, which in conjunction with the decline

in the creditworthiness of the 28 EU members resulted in an AA.

Summer slump continues From the end of August, NRW.Bank is planning a European roadshow for a

new green bond. The largest regional promotional bank has already instructed

a consortium for this purpose. At least the State of Lower Saxony has been

tapping the market, although our table must remain empty this week too in the

absence of any new issues. NIESA raised fresh funds of EUR 250m for its

01/2025 bond at ms -20bp. Otherwise, foreign currencies dominate here and

there: accordingly, KFW, NIB or even NWB issued bonds in USD, while KfW

also opted for a tap in AUD. The Canadian province of Alberta also opted for

another foreign currency outside the euro, raising GBP 150m.

Issuer Country Timing ISIN Maturity Volume Spread Rating

- - - - - - - -

Source: Bloomberg, NORD/LB Fixed Income Research (ratings: Fitch, Moody’s and S&P)

Trader’s Comment There was only isolated demand within the context of the purchase pro-

gramme. Demand from the market and from sales was also very manageable.

Yesterday, Niesa 01/25 was increased by EUR 250m at ms -20bp. There was

scarcely any interest in the increase because of the market situation and the

extremely ambitious pricing.



of 31

Covered Bonds Sub-benchmarks on the covered bond market

Analyst:

Kai Ebeling, CIIA

Sub-benchmarks as an

alternative to benchmarks

The issuers we cover mostly have a bond listed on the the iBoxx EUR Covered

Index. To be included on the iBoxx EUR Covered, the following criteria must

be fulfilled. The bond is a covered bond denominated in euro with a minimum

volume of EUR 500m and a residual term of more than one year. In addition,

the issue must be assessed in the investment grade category and at least

three joint leads must have participated in the placement of the bond. If these

criteria are met, a bond can be included in the iBoxx EUR Covered, which as

of July 2017 had an outstanding volume of EUR 782.3bn and a total of 791

individual bonds. However, outside the benchmark volume, in what is known

as the sub-benchmark segment, there are issuers who we believe could offer

an alternative to the traditional benchmark for covered bond investors. For this

reason, we are taking a more detailed look at this segment and presenting

individual issuers or covered bond programmes below.

Definition of the sub-

benchmark segment

As, in contrast to the benchmarks, Markit does not provide a separate index for

the sub-benchmarks, we have transferred some of the criteria of the iBoxx

EUR Covered in order to define a universe for sub-benchmarks. The following

analysis covers EUR-denominated covered bonds with an issuance volume of

at least EUR 250m and a maximum of EUR 499m that have an investment

grade rating. The criteria regarding residual term and joint leads have not been

applied here to define the sub-benchmark segment.

Composition of iBoxx EUR Covered (July 2017) Outstanding sub-benchmark volume

189.8

103.0

75.0

49.4 46.1

45.0

37.7

36.3

33.6

30.8

27.0

26.0

22.1

60.7 FR

DE

ES_Single

IT

CA

GB

NL

NO

ES_Multi

SE

FI

AU

AT

Others

15.2

5.2

1.7

1.5

1.5

1.4

1.1

3.6

DE

FR

AT

ES

CZ

CA

FI

Others

Source: Markit, Bloomberg, NORD/LB Fixed Income Research Source: Bloomberg, NORD/LB Fixed Income Research

Sub-benchmarks as a niche

product

Based on the defined criteria, the sub-benchmark segment has an outstanding

volume of EUR 31.0bn, which is distributed over 110 issues. Therefore, the

volume of the sub-benchmark segment is less than 4% of the euro-

denominated benchmark volume.



of 31

Jurisdictions which

currently do not issue

benchmarks are also

represented in the

sub-benchmark segment

Significant differences are also apparent as regards the distribution of the

outstanding volume by jurisdiction. The issues represented in the iBoxx EUR

Covered originate from a total of 22 different jurisdictions, with French issuers

accounting for the highest volume (EUR 189.8bn), followed by German

Pfandbriefe (EUR 103bn) and Spanish single cédulas (EUR 75bn). In contrast,

German Pfandbriefe dominate the sub-benchmark segment with EUR 15.2bn,

followed by covered bonds from France (EUR 5.2bn) and Austria (EUR 1.7bn).

Aside from these three jurisdictions, 13 other jurisdictions are represented in

the sub-benchmark universe that we are looking at.

Sub-benchmarks – volume (EURbn) Selected issues (August 2016–July 2017; EURbn)

3.0

2.2

2.2

1.7

1.6

1.5

1.4

1.31.21.0

14.0

HESLAN

AXASA

LBBER

BYLAN

CFF

KRSKOE

RY

MUNHYP

RABKAS

WLBANK

Others

0.5

0.5

0.3

0.25

0.25

0.25

KNFP

VUBSK

KA

AABHFH

MOREBO

SUOHYP

Source: Bloomberg, NORD/LB Fixed Income Research Source: Bloomberg, NORD/LB Fixed Income Research

A total of 47 issuers are

represented in the

sub-benchmark segment

Broken down by issuer, the outstanding volume covers a total of 47 different

issuers. The largest issuer in the sub-benchmark segment is Landesbank

Hessen-Thüringen, with a total outstanding volume of EUR 3.0bn, made up of

twelve Pfandbriefe overall, followed by Axa Bank Europe and Landesbank

Berlin, which each have a total of eight issuers with an overall volume of EUR

2.2bn. Bayerische Landesbank accounts for the third-highest volume totalling

EUR 1.7bn (six issues)

Six issuers have refinanced

in the past twelve months

via sub-benchmarks

If we look at i) only the past twelve months and ii) only the issuers who are not

represented with an issue in the iBoxx EUR Covered and iii) illiquid covered

bonds are excluded, only six of the previously examined issuers to have used

sub-benchmarks for refinancing meet the aforementioned criteria. In order to

rule out bonds which were only issued for transactions with the central bank

and those for which no bid or offer prices are currently provided on the market,

we have excluded issues for which no quotes are provided on Bloomberg or

whose liquidity is rated with a BVAL score of less than 5 from the analysis.

The highest volume can be attributed to Natixis Pfandbriefbank and VÚB,

which each issued two issues with a total volume of EUR 0.5bn and have

therefore issued almost 50% of the total volume. The second-highest volume

was issued by Kommunalkredit Austria (EUR 0.3bn), followed by

Ålandsbanken, Mortgage Society of Finland and the Norwegian Møre

Boligkreditt, each with EUR 0.25bn.

Presentation of issuers As the previously mentioned banks are issuers who have only recently issued

their sub-benchmarks, we shall examine them more closely in the following

section.



of 31

Ålandsbanken The Finnish Ålandsbanken was founded in 1919 on the Åland Islands and has

been listed on the NASDAQ OMX Helsinki since 1942. Expansion to the

Finnish mainland followed in 1994, and then to Sweden in 2009. With around

690 employees, the bank serves more than 100,000 customers. Its business

activities are concentrated on wealthy private customers, with the

geographical focus on the three markets of the Åland Islands, Finland and

Sweden. On the Åland Islands the bank is represented with branches and two

representative offices, accounting for a market share of 55-60%. In contrast to

its strategy for the Finnish and Swedish markets, the financial institution on the

Åland Islands offers a full product range and therefore targets all customer

groups. In Sweden and Finland the bank concentrates heavily on wealthy

private individuals and their enterprises. Here too the bank offers a broad

range of financial services, although they are seen more as a complement to

the products in the private banking and premium segment. In Finland

Ålandsbanken is represented with five branches in the affluent regions, in

which it holds a market share of around 1-2%. In Sweden the market share is

less than one percent. The bank is represented there with three offices in

Sweden's largest cities. Ålandsbanken established the covered bond

programme in 2012 to improve the diversification of its funding sources,

setting up one pool for its Finnish assets and one for the Swedish cover

assets. Since then both EUR and SEK-denominated covered bonds have

been issued. The EUR-denominated sub-benchmarks are secured by the

Finnish pool.

Kommunalkredit Austria Kommunalkredit Austria (KA) is a specialist bank focusing on the infrastructure

financing market. It acts as an broker between public (local authorities and

institutions) or private project operators as buyers of the properties and

institutional investors as financiers of these projects. The business model

pursues an “originate to distribute” approach, meaning that the majority of the

acquired volume is intended to be placed with institutional investors.

Geographically the bank’s business activities are concentrated on the Core

Europe segment. The bank focuses on projects in the areas of energy and the

environment, social infrastructure (care homes, healthcare and educational

institutions, administration buildings) and transport (local transport concepts,

road, rail). The owners of KA are Gesona Beteiligungsverwaltung 99.78%, with

the remaining 0.22% held by Österreichische Gemeindebund (Austrian

Association of Municipalities). In 2008 the bank had to be nationalised, which

entailed a number of conditions imposed by the European Commission. In

autumn 2015 Kommunalkredit Austria was successfully reprivatised. To

increase its volume of new business KA opened a new branch in Frankfurt in

January 2017 to ensure that it was also represented on the ground in

Germany.



of 31

Kommunalkredit Austria

uses Social Covered Bond

KA issued a covered bond again in 2017 for the first time since its

restructuring. It was issued as a social covered bond. The funds are therefore

to be used to finance projects in the areas of education (schools, universities,

kindergarten, etc.), health (hospitals, rehab centres, etc.) and social housing.

The projects are selected and the underlying criteria are checked based on

sustainability checklists in the loan application as well as an assessment of the

ecological and social effects. In addition, controversial business segments

(weapons industry, nuclear power, etc.) are excluded. All the proceeds from

the issue are used to refund existing social infrastructure projects at the time

of the issue and for investments in new projects over the term of the bond in

accordance with the selection criteria. In a second opinion on the bank, the

rating agency Sustainalytics has confirmed that the KA Social Covered Bond

Framework is based on the four pillars of the ICMA Green Bond Principles and

the Guidance for Issuers of Social Bonds. Within the scope of reporting annual

information is to be provided on the website, which will chart the development

of the financed portfolio and include descriptions of the positive social effects

of the projects. Moreover, the auditors confirm the allocation of funds.

Mortgage Society of Finland Mortgage Society of Finland was founded in 1860 and is therefore Finland’s

oldest private bank. With its business model the bank focuses on the private

customer business and its expertise lies in mortgage financing. MSF acts as a

mutual society, which is why its customers are simultaneously shareholders in

the bank, although all the income stays in the company to strengthen the

equity base. In January 2016 MSF was awarded a licence by the Finnish

financial supervisory authority to operate the mortgage banking business. MSF

issues covered bonds via its general issuance programme. MSF also uses it to

issue senior unsecured and subordinated bonds in addition to potential

covered bonds. As the business activities of the Mortgage Society of Finland

are concentrated on Finnish growth markets, its cover pool is made up

exclusively of Finnish cover assets. In terms of the type of debtor, they consist

of residential mortgage loans to either private persons or housing

associations.

Møre Boligkreditt Sparbanken Møre was established in 1985 as a result of a merger between

several local savings banks in the Møre og Romsdal region, with the founding

date of the oldest institution stretching back to 1843. In 1989, Sparebanken

Møre was the first savings bank to be listed on the stock exchange in Oslo and

is now the eighth largest bank in Norway. Its business activities are

concentrated on traditional banking services, with the private customer

business accounting for around 70% of the loan portfolio. Møre Boligkreditt

was established in 2008 and acts as a wholly owned subsidiary of

Sparebanken Møre. Møre Boligkreditt safeguards the long-term funding in the

group and refinances loans originated by the parent, which are transferred to

Møre Boligkreditt for long-term refinancing so that they are financed via

covered bonds. Only residential assets originating from Norway are issued to

private individuals and housing cooperatives as loans. To date Møre

Boligkreditt has issued both NOK and SEK and EUR-denominated covered

bonds.



of 31

Natixis Pfandbriefbank NATIXIS Pfandbriefbank (NPB), headquartered in Frankfurt, is a wholly owned

subsidiary of the French bank NATIXIS S.A., in which BPCE, in turn, holds a

majority shareholding of 71% (29% of the shares are in free float). The BPCE

Group is the second-largest banking group in France. NPB has concluded a

control and profit transfer agreement with the parent company NATIXIS S.A,

which in turn provided a restricted letter of comfort to NPB for EUR 2.0bn.

Since August 2012 NPB has had a licence to issue mortgage Pfandbriefe.

Although, in principle, the bank has the business opportunities of a universal

bank, it mainly concludes only transactions in line with the Pfandbrief cover

under the German Pfandbrief Act. The bank is a member of the German

Association of Pfandbrief Banks (vdp) and has been active on the market

since the beginning of 2013. New business is primarily generated in France

and Germany (as at December 2016 58% of the real estate portfolio was in

France and 36% of the assets in Germany). NATIXIS S.A. essentially secures

all NPB property loans by means of a guarantee with matching maturities.

NPB is planning to achieve a new gross business volume of EUR 600m in

2017.

Všeobecná úverová banka VUB has been 95% owned by the Italian banking group Intesa Sanpaolo

(Intesa) since November 2001, although the actual share of Intesa is

approximately 97% (the residual 3% can be attributed to minority

shareholders). As at the end of 2016 the group's total assets amounted to

roughly EUR 14bn, with a total of 4,098 employees servicing over 1.1 million

customers in 226 branches (population of Slovakia: approximately 5.4 million).

The bank's business activities are almost solely focused on Slovakia. VUB

also has a branch in The Czech Republic. As at Q3 2016 VUB was the

second-largest bank in Slovakia, measured by total assets (EUR 13.2bn) and

market share (18.7%), after Slovenská sporiteľňa (Q3 2016: total assets

EUR 14.7bn; market share 20.9%), which is wholly owned by the Austrian

Erste Bank. VÚB finances itself almost exclusively via customer deposits,

although mortgage-backed covered bonds are also used. In Slovakia,

Hypotekárny záložny list (mortgage-backed covered bonds) can only be

issued by banks with a special banking licence; the requirements which they

have to meet are greater than for a banking licence. Mortgage banks must

therefore have equity capital of at least EUR 33.2m. Generally speaking, only

mortgage-backed covered bonds are issued under the Slovakian regulations,

although each bank can only maintain a cover pool that is located on the

issuer’s balance sheet. The cover assets must previously have been entered

in the cover register. Substitute cover assets may be used up to a sum of 10%

of the cover pool volume, whereas derivatives are not part of the pool.

Other unrated

sub-benchmarks are

available

Where only the issuance size is used as a criterion when defining the sub-

benchmark segment, the segment comprises an outstanding volume of EUR

38.5bn, which is represented by over 140 covered bonds. This includes, for

example, the public Pfandbrief of Sparkasse Hannover, which was also issued

with joint leads in 2014, but does not have a separate rating.



of 31

Conclusion Compared with the EUR-denominated benchmark segment, the sub-

benchmarks we have looked at constitute a niche market. Having said that,

they can still serve as a diversification from the traditional benchmark for

investors and also offer a higher spread in some cases. Mostly this is

accompanied by less liquidity in the respective issue. As the issuers we have

focused on in the sub-benchmark segment are generally relatively new

covered bond issuers, at least in relation to the sub-benchmark segment, we

could foresee a benchmark issue happening in the future, provided the

respective issuers have a corresponding funding requirement.



of 31

SSAs Municipal Schuldscheindarlehen remain on trend

Analysts:


Thomas Scholz

Municipal SSD on trend

Apart from traditional bank loans and the issue of bonds on the capital mar-

ket, Schuldscheindarlehen (SSD) play an important role in satisfying demand

for financing. Overall, the market for SSD has developed significantly in re-

cent years and accounts for an issuance volume of more than EUR 25bn in

2016. This trend, which is largely attributable to the refinancing of corporates,

also seems to be continuing among public sector issuers. Particularly among

municipal borrowers, there has been a further increase in funding via SSD

(especially in terms of the number of deals) recently, which is likely to be due,

firstly, to the benefits of the product itself and, secondly, to the increased

demand – contrary to the trend with the federal government and Länder – for

funding at municipal level. Internal information indicates that some EUR

340m divided into 18 transactions was raised in total in Q2. The deal count is

at a record level compared with previous quarters although total volume fell

slightly once more. Some EUR 800m (ytd) was raised in the market for mu-

nicipal SSD and we observed 34 deals on the markets. This leads to an av-

erage deal size of EUR 24m in 2017 (ytd).

Issuance volumes and number of municipal transactions

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1.000

in E

UR

m

Issuance Volume (lhs) Number of issues (rhs)

Source: NORD/LB Fixed Income Research

Q3/2016 record quarter –

caused by large transactions

Looking at the issuance volumes of the last one and a half years, Q3/2016

especially is conspicuous as an outlier. In this quarter, we counted four trans-

actions each totalling over EUR 100m – which is rather unusual for this

(sub)market. Retrospectively, the market was sufficiently receptive for this

volume meaning that issue spreads did not come under too much pressure

apparently. It is striking that municipal SSD are continuing to gain in im-

portance as a means of raising outside capital, as can be seen from the

number of deals.



of 31

Significant differences to

corporates – marked lack of

transparency

There is basically little transparency in the market for SSD. Among other

things, this is because bilateral credit agreements form the legal basis for the

relationship between creditors and debtors – meaning that the German Secu-

rities Trading Law (WpHG) is not applicable and consequently certain duties

of publication do not have to be met. This lack of transparency is even more

marked within the market for municipal SSD. This is primarily attributable to

the structure of the deals. While investors are often targeted in the corporates

sector whose status can be described as “non-deal-related” and consequent-

ly a certain amount of publicity is generated, deals in the municipal SSD are

far smaller on average and must be classified as “private placements”. Con-

sequently, no publicity is generated regarding the deals. This leads to the fact

there are many unknown municipal SSD deals, which naturally are not (can-

not be) recorded in our statistics.

Small deals characterise the

market for municipal SSD

The size of municipal SSD deals is another significant difference. The deals

are far smaller – the average size of corporates is around EUR 265m (munic-

ipalities EUR 24m.). The outside capital requirement of smaller municipalities,

in particular, is not comparable with (larger) corporates, particularly as munic-

ipal investments in long-term maintenance still had to be covered by munici-

palities’ relatively predictable cash inflows, which inhibits willingness to invest

under certain circumstances. Accordingly, only 2% or so of transactions ex-

ceed EUR 100m, while most of the transactions are worth EUR 10-30m.

Size distribution of municipal Schuldscheindar-lehen since Q1/2016 (number weighted by tranche)

Maturity distribution of municipal Schuldschein-darlehen since Q1/2016 (number weighted by tranche)

3.5%5.3%

10.5%

2.6%

42.1%

36.0%

up to 3 years 3 to 5 years5 to 8 years 8 to 10 years10 to 20 years longer than 20 years

15.6%

16.5%

45.9%

20.2%

1.8%

up to EUR 5m EUR 5-10m EUR 10-30m

EUR 30-100m above 100m

Source: NORD/LB Fixed Income Research Source: NORD/LB Fixed Income Research

Long maturities normal for

municipal SSD

Another perceptible difference between SSD and corporates is the maturity

of the former. While around 4% of the tranches for corporates have a maturi-

ty of over ten years, the figure for municipalities is around 78%. This differ-

ence is, firstly, attributable to differences in the risk profiles of municipalities

and corporates and, secondly, to the differences in the funding requirements

of the issuer categories.



of 31

Pricing of municipal SSD

very tight

According to our information, the pricing of municipal SSD is at the bottom of

comparable corporate maturities or below it in some cases. In Q2, spreads

of highly rated municipalities on a maturity of 30 years were below ms +30bp

for instance. In comparison with this, the sovereign curve of German bonds

in this maturity is currently around ms -32bp. If one assumes that the current

issue spreads of highly rated municipalities are between ms +20-30bp, they

offer a perceptible pickup compared with sovereign bonds. It should be not-

ed here that SSD are naturally (and correctly, given the smaller volumes and

very long maturities) very illiquid and consequently a buy-and-hold strategy

should be assumed for the acquisition of a municipal SSD to make sense

from an investor’s perspective.

Conclusion – municipal SSD

remain a niche product

By and large, municipal SSD are a submarket of the SSD segment. The

market for municipal SSD is still a niche, which has, however, seen dynamic

growth in the wake of growth in the SSD market as a whole. As a rule, credit

ratings are – via the safeguarding mechanisms of the Länder or the federal

government as well – very high. Nevertheless, they offer a significant pickup

compared with sovereign bonds. However, if one looks at the long maturities

and small deals, it must be assumed that there is practically no secondary

market. The municipal SSD is therefore of interest to investors who have

long-term payment obligations and therefore want to generate highly secure

interest income above the sovereign bond curves.



of 31

Covered Bonds/SSA ECB tracker

Analysts:

Matthias Melms, CIIA, CCrA


In this section, we publish weekly updates on the covered bonds, ABS, specif-

ic agencies, supranationals and sovereign bonds which the European Central

Bank (ECB) is purchasing. We provide an overview of the development of

purchases.

CBPP3 –

net inflows

remain at a low level

As at the reference date of 28 July 2017, the European Central Bank (ECB)

reported a portfolio volume of EUR 225.040bn as part of the CBPP3. This

equated to an increase of EUR 408m on the previous week’s value (as at 21

July 2017: EUR 224.632bn). Here, net inflows were composed exclusively of

purchases, with no maturities falling due. Over the past four weeks, net inflows

have increased further on account of basis effects, totalling EUR 2.410bn (as

at 21 July 2017: EUR 1.795bn) at present. In terms of the ABSPP, the portfolio

volume as at 28 July rose by EUR 5m week on week (as at 21 July 2017:

EUR -44m). Net inflows in this context consisted of purchases amounting to

approximately EUR 0.2bn and maturities of around EUR 0.2bn. On account of

basis effects, the net inflows over a rolling four-week period fell to EUR 529m

(as at 21 July 2017: EUR 1,029m). Under the CSPP, there was a

week-on-week increase of just EUR 0.787bn, which only just surpasses the

previous week’s value of EUR 0.723bn. The overall volume now totals EUR

101.848bn.

PSPP purchases decline

to below EUR 9.7bn in the

previous trading week

In the previous trading week, the Eurosystem acquired bonds worth approxi-

mately EUR 9.7bn as part of the PSPP, which fell well short of the recently

accelerated pace of purchases. The purchase amount mentioned above is

again approximately EUR 2.5bn lower than recently. Welcome to the summer

recess! Accordingly, the ECB reported an increased portfolio volume of “only”

EUR 1,658.988bn as at the reference date of 28 July. The reduced purchase

amounts are still yet to filter down into the rolling four-week average. At EUR

12.4bn, this value is actually up on the EUR 11.1bn from the previous week,

after the EUR 4.35bn from 30 June following redemptions was deducted from

the rolling calculation. In the previous trading week, there were – as often

happens – some bonds purchased for the first time by the Eurosystem. Two

new ISINs from North Rhine-Westphalia in the German sub-sovereigns seg-

ment were included on the list, bringing the number of Bundesländer bonds to

have been purchased to 201 now. In addition, two welcome guests in the form

of CDEP and, once again, RESFER found their way into the Eurosystem’s

books. No bonds were purchased from the supranational segment. According

to Bloomberg, the BDF has signalled that it will again be buying four bonds

from the EFSF (2021-2033) this coming Friday.



of 31

Upcoming reverse auctions (Banque de France – BDF)

ISIN Bond Central bank & date

EU000A1G0DM5 EFSF 0 03/29/21 Banque de France (04.08.)

EU000A1G0DV6 EFSF 0 1/2 07/11/25 Banque de France (04.08.)

EU000A1G0DY0 EFSF 0 7/8 07/26/27 Banque de France (04.08.)

EU000A1G0DT0 EFSF 1 1/4 05/24/33 Banque de France (04.08.)

Total targeted size: EUR 100-150m Source: BDF, NORD/LB Fixed Income Research

Completed reverse auctions (Banque de France – BDF)

ISIN Bond Central bank and date

- - -

Total targeted size: EUR 100-200m Source: BDF, NORD/LB Fixed Income Research

Completed reverse auctions (DeNederlandscheBank – DNB)

ISIN Bond Min. Mean Max Date

XS0478263816 BNG 3 ¾ 01/14/20 110.240 110.244 110.248 31.07.

XS0212342066 NEDWBK 3 ⅞ 02/17/20 31.07.

XS0873878283 BNG 1 ½ 04/15/20 31.07.

XS0537711144 BNG 2 ⅝ 09/01/20 31.07.

XS0578368143 NEDWBK 3 ½ 01/14/21 31.07.

XS1280394229 BNG 0 ½ 08/26/22 102.230 102.230 102.230 31.07.

XS1312042648 NEDWBK 0 ½ 10/27/22 31.07.

XS1547374212 BNG 0 ¼ 01/10/24 99.890 99.890 99.890 31.07.

XS1626191107 NEDWBK 0 ¼ 06/07/24 99.460 99.460 99.460 31.07.

XS1632891138 BNG 0 ⅝ 06/19/27 31.07.

Total Amount Offered EUR 119m

Total Amount Allocated EUR 50m

Source: DNB, NORD/LB Fixed Income Research



of 31

ECB purchase list for PSPP – regional issuers

Issuer Jurisdiction ISINs already purchased

BADWUR DE 8

BAYERN DE 3

BERGER DE 20

BREMEN DE 10

BRABUR DE 8

HESSEN DE 25

HAMBRG DE 9

NIESA DE 22

MECVOR DE 2

NRW DE 42

RHIPAL DE 16

SAARLD DE 4

SCHHOL DE 3

SAXONY DE -

SACHAN DE 4

THRGN DE 9

BULABO DE 1

LANDER DE 15

IDF FR 3

VDP FR 1

MADRID ES 14

CASTIL ES 1

BASQUE ES 2

ARAGON ES 1

ANDAL ES 1

WALLOO BE 3

FLEMSH BE 5

LCFB BE 1

Source: ECB, NORD/LB Fixed Income Research



of 31

ECB purchase list for PSPP

Issuer Jurisdiction ISINs already purchased

EIB SNAT 64

EFSF SNAT 40

ESM SNAT 17

EU SNAT 21

COE SNAT 8

NIB SNAT 1

EURAT SNAT -

KFW DE 51

RENTEN DE 22

NRWBK DE 49

LBANK DE 14

CADES FR 18

RESFER FR 19

UNEDIC FR 19

AGFRNC FR 17

OSEOFI FR 15

CDCEPS FR 4

CNA FR 2

ACOSS FR -

BNG NL 30

NEDWBK NL 23

NEDFIN NL 4

OBND AT 13

ASFING AT 8

FINNVE FI 5

TVRFIN FI 2

ICO ES 11

ADIFAL ES 4

CDEP IT 8

IP (REFER / ESTPOR) PT 1

SEDABI SI 1

DARSDD SI -

FADE ES 8

KUNTA FI 2

PARPUB PT 1

CASDEL IT -

AFLBNK FR 3

APHP FR -

GDCHU FR -

SPABSS FR -

SFILFR FR 1

HSGFIN IE -

FRBRTC BE -

SOCWAL BE -

FONWAL BE -

SWLBEL BE -




of 31

CBPP3 Overview

Weekly purchase volume [EURbn] Primary and secondary market share [EURbn]

217

218

219

220

221

222

223

224

225

226

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

19.0

5.1

7

26.0

5.1

7

02.0

6.1

7

09.0

6.1

7

16.0

6.1

7

23.0

6.1

7

30.0

6.1

7

07.0

7.1

7

14.0

7.1

7

21.0

7.1

7

28.0

7.1

7

EU

Rb

n

EU

Rb

n

Weekly purchases Total volume (rhs)

0

50

100

150

200

250

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Oct-14

Dec-

14

Feb

-15

Apr-

15

Jun-1

5

Aug-1

5

Oct-15

Dec-

15

Feb

-16

Apr-

16

Jun-1

6

Aug-1

6

Oct-16

Dec-

16

Feb

-17

Apr-

17

Jun-1

7

EU

Rb

n

EU

Rb

nPrimary market Secondary market Total volume (rhs)

Source: Bloomberg, NORD/LB Fixed Income Research Source: ECB, NORD/LB Fixed Income Research

Total volume of covered bond purchase programmes [EURbn]

0

50

100

150

200

250

Jul-0

9

Nov

-09

Mar

-10

Jul-1

0

Nov

-10

Mar

-11

Jul-1

1

Nov

-11

Mar

-12

Jul-1

2

Nov

-12

Mar

-13

Jul-1

3

Nov

-13

Mar

-14

Jul-1

4

Nov

-14

Mar

-15

Jul-1

5

Nov

-15

Mar

-16

Jul-1

6

Nov

-16

Mar

-17

Jul-1

7

CBPP1 [EUR 7,5bn] CBPP2 [EUR 4,9bn] CBPP3 [EUR 225bn]

Source: Bloomberg, NORD/LB Fixed Income Research current volume in [ ]



of 31

PSPP overview

Weekly purchase volume [EUR bn] Distribution by country at month-end [EUR bn]

1450

1500

1550

1600

1650

1700

0

3

6

9

12

15

19.0

5.1

7

26.0

5.1

7

02.0

6.1

7

09.0

6.1

7

16.0

6.1

7

23.0

6.1

7

30.0

6.1

7

07.0

7.1

7

14.0

7.1

7

21.0

7.1

7

28.0

7.1

7

Weekly purchases Total volume (rhs)

0

40

80

120

160

200

240

280

320

360

400

EU

Rb

n

Source: Bloomberg, NORD/LB Fixed Income Research Source: ECB, NORD/LB Fixed Income Research

Overall distribution of PSPP buying at month-end (EURbn)

Country Adjusted

distribution key1

Purchases (EUR m)

Expected purchases (EUR m)

2

Difference (EUR m)

Average time to maturity in

years

Market average in years

3

Difference in years

DE 26.3% 391,895 392,231 -336 7.14 7.22 -0.1

FR 20.7% 315,244 314,079 1,165 7.61 8.03 -0.4

IT 18.0% 274,086 273,127 959 8.53 7.74 0.8

SNAT 0.0% 177,927 177,894 33 7.44 8.16 -0.7

ES 12.9% 194,791 194,596 195 8.51 7.84 0.7

NE 5.9% 87,808 87,879 -71 7.58 8.28 -0.7

BE 3.6% 54,830 54,628 202 10.22 10.17 0.1

AT 2.9% 43,563 43,404 159 9.23 8.12 1.1

PT 2.6% 28,145 28,832 -687 8.85 7.14 1.7

FI 1.8% 25,480 25,690 -210 7.20 7.42 -0.2

IE 1.7% 21,787 22,058 -271 8.73 8.53 0.2

SK 1.1% 9,765 10,053 -288 8.22 8.41 -0.2

SI 0.5% 5,787 5,864 -77 9.33 10.77 -1.4

LU 0.3% 2,079 2,161 -82 5.65 7.03 -1.4

LV 0.4% 1,579 1,736 -157 7.94 8.56 -0.6

LT 0.6% 2,620 2,862 -242 6.82 10.17 -3.4

MT 0.1% 956 984 -28 11.03 10.19 0.8

CY 0.2% 215 2,869 -2,654 4.69 5.30 -0.6

EE 0.3% 65 203 -138 1.03 0.00 1.0

GR 0.0% 0 0 0 - 18.85 -

Total / average

100.0% 1,638,624 - - 7.90 8.08 -0.2

1 Based on the ECB capital key, adjusted to include supras and the disqualification of Greece

,

2 Based on the adjusted distribution key,

3 Weighted average time to maturity of the bonds eligible for purchasing under the PSPP,




of 31

Covered Bonds Charts & Graphs

Outstanding volume (Bmk.) Top 10 countries (Bmk.)

21.2%

17.4%

11.7%8.1%

5.5%

4.9%

4.7%

4.3%

3.2%

3.2%

15.8%

EUR 1062.1bn

FR

ES

DE

IT

NL

GB

CA

NO

AT

SE

Others

Country Vol. (€bn) No. of CBs ØVol. (€bn) Vol. weight.

ØMod. Duration

FR 225.6 181 1.2 4.3

ES 185.2 143 1.3 3.3

DE 124.3 191 0.7 4.0

IT 86.1 89 1.0 3.4

NL 58.1 47 1.2 5.6

GB 51.8 46 1.1 3.8

CA 49.6 40 1.2 3.0

NO 45.3 46 1.0 3.5

AT 34.0 53 0.6 4.1

SE 33.8 36 0.9 4.1

Issue volume by year (Bmk.) Maturities next 12 months (Bmk.)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

EU

Rb

n

ATAUBECACHCYCZDEDKESFIFRGBGRHUIEITLUNLNONZPLPTSESGTR

0

5

10

15

20

25

07/1

7

08/1

7

09/1

7

10/1

7

11/1

7

12/1

7

01/1

8

02/1

8

03/1

8

04/1

8

05/1

8

06/1

8

EU

Rb

n

AUBECACHCYCZDEDKESFIFRGBGRHUIEITLUNLNONZPLPTSESGTR

Avg. mod. duration by country (vol, weighted) Rating distribution (vol, weighted)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

AT

AU

BE

CA

CH

CZ

DE

DK

ES FI

FR

GB IE IT LU

NL

NO

NZ

PL

PT

SE

SG

70.6%

3.1%12.4%

0.7%

4.3%

3.2%0.4%

4.3%

0.8%

0.0%

0.2%

5.3%

AAA/Aaa

AA+/Aa1

AA/Aa2

AA-/Aa3

A+/A1

A/A2

A-/A3

BBB+/Baa1

BBB/Baa2

BBB-/Baa3

BB+/Ba1

BB/Ba2

BB-/Ba3

Source: Bloomberg, NORD/LB Fixed Income Research



of 31


Spread development (last 15 issues)

HS

HN

0.1

07/2

0/2

0

AC

AS

CF 0

7/8

08/0

2/2

7

BQ

DA

U 0

1/2

07/1

0/2

2

LEED

0 1

/2 0

7/0

3/2

4

NW

IDE

1 3

/8 0

6/2

9/3

2

BZ

LN

Z 0

1/2

07/0

3/2

4

HV

B 0

1/8

10/2

6/2

3

AEG

ON

0 3

/4 0

6/2

7/2

7

SPA

BO

L 0

3/8

06/2

6/2

4

AC

AC

B 0

3/8

09/3

0/2

4

DH

Y 0

3/8

06/2

0/2

5

LB

PS

FH

0 5

/8 0

6/2

3/2

7

SEB

0 1

/4 0

6/2

0/2

4

BH

H 0

1/8

10/2

3/2

3

ISPIM

1 1

/8 0

6/1

6/2

7

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

bp

Reoffer Spread Current ASW

Bid-to-Cover (last 15 issues)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

HS

HN

0.1

07/2

0/2

0

AC

AS

CF 0

7/8

08/0

2/2

7

BQ

DA

U 0

1/2

07/1

0/2

2

LE

ED

0 1

/2 0

7/0

3/2

4

NW

IDE

1 3

/8 0

6/2

9/3

2

BZ

LN

Z 0

1/2

07/0

3/2

4

HV

B 0

1/8

10/2

6/2

3

AE

GO

N 0

3/4

06/2

7/2

7

SP

AB

OL 0

3/8

06/2

6/2

4

AC

AC

B 0

3/8

09/3

0/2

4

DH

Y 0

3/8

06/2

0/2

5

LB

PS

FH

0 5

/8 0

6/2

3/2

7

SE

B 0

1/4

06/2

0/2

4

BH

H 0

1/8

10/2

3/2

3

ISP

IM 1

1/8

06/1

6/2

7

EU

Rb

n

Amt. Issued Order Book Bid-to-Cover (rhs)

Spread development by country Performance (total return)

-40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20

TRSGSEPTPLNZNONLITIE

GBFRFI

ES - SingleES - Multi

DKDECHCABEAUAT

bpΔ 3 Months Δ Week Δ Month

-5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20%

Overall

1-3Y

3-5Y

5-7Y

7-10Y

2017 ytd

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012




of 31


Germany & Austria France

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

AS

W in b

p

years to maturity

AT DE - Öpfe DE - Hypfe DE - Others

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

AS

W in b

p

years to maturityOF OH Structured

Nordics Other Core

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

AS

W in b

p

years to maturityDK FI NO SE

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

AS

W in b

p

years to maturity

BE CH GB LU NL PL

Overseas & Others Periphery

0

50

100

150

200

250

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

AS

W in p

b

AS

W in b

p

years to maturityAU CA NZ SG TR (rhs.)

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

AS

W in b

p

years to maturity

ES - Single ES - Multi IE IT PT




of 31

SSA Charts & Graphs

Outstanding volume (Bmk.) Top 10 countries (Bmk.)

38,7%

37,4%

11,2%

3,8%

3,6%1,4%

1,2%

0,9%

0,4%

0,3%

1,1%

5,3%

EUR 1522,5bn SNAT

GE

FR

SP

NE

AS

CA

IT

FI

PO

Others

Country Vol. (€bn) No. of bonds

ØVol. (€bn) Vol. weight.

ØMod. Duration

SNAT 588,6 131 4,5 7,0

GE 568,8 481 1,2 4,6

FR 170,8 109 1,6 5,5

SP 57,5 59 1,0 3,5

NE 55,5 57 1,0 5,1

AS 21,9 21 1,0 6,4

CA 18,9 13 1,5 5,2

IT 14,0 15 0,9 6,9

FI 6,2 8 0,8 6,0

PO 4,0 7 0,6 4,3

Issue volume by year (Bmk.) Maturities next 12 months (Bmk.)

0

50

100

150

200

250

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017e

EU

Rb

n

Other

ES

AT

NL

FR

GE

SNAT

0

5

10

15

20

25

3008

/17

09

/17

10

/17

11

/17

12

/17

01

/18

02

/18

03

/18

04

/18

05

/18

06

/18

07

/18

EU

Rb

n

Other

ES

AT

NL

FR

GE

SNAT

Avg. mod. duration by country (vol, weighted) Rating distribution (vol, weighted)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

SN

AT

GE

FR

SP

NE

AS

CA IT FI

PO

44,7%

12,3%

28,0% 8,6%

0,5%

2,6%

1,2%

0,3%0,1%

0,5%

2,4%

AAA/Aaa

AA+/Aa1

AA/Aa2

AA-/Aa3

A+/A1

A/A2

A-/A3

BBB+/Baa1

BBB/Baa2

BBB-/Baa3

BB+/Ba1

BB/Ba2

BB-/Ba3

B+/B1

B/B2

B-/B3

NR




of 31

SSA Charts & Graphs

Spread development (last 15 issues) E

FS

F 0

7/8

07/2

6/2

7

(fix

ed

)

NIE

SA

0 0

2/1

3/2

0 (

fixed)

RE

SF

ER

2 1

/4 1

2/2

0/4

7

(fix

ed

)

KF

W 1

1/8

09/1

5/3

2 (

fixed)

EF

SF

1.8

07/1

0/4

8 (

fixed)

EF

SF

0 1

/2 0

7/1

1/2

5

(fix

ed)

ICO

0.1

07/3

0/2

1 (

fixed)

EIB

1 1

/2 1

1/1

5/4

7 (

fixed)

AD

IFA

L 0

.8 0

7/0

5/2

3

(fix

ed

)

AG

FR

NC

1 3

/8 0

7/0

5/3

2

(fix

ed

)

NIE

SA

0 5

/8 0

7/0

6/2

7

(fix

ed

)

KF

W 0

1/8

10/0

4/2

4 (

fixed)

NR

W 1

.55 0

6/1

6/4

8 (

fixed)

SA

CH

AN

0 1

/2 0

6/2

5/2

7

(fix

ed

)

CD

EP

1 1

/2 0

6/2

1/2

4

(fix

ed

)

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

bp

Reoffer Spread / DM Current ASW / DM

Spread development by country Performance (total return)

-15 -10 -5 0 5

GE

SNAT

FR

SP

NE

AS

bp1W 1M 3M

-5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Overall

1-3

3-5

5-7

7-10

10+

YTD

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

Performance (total return) by regions Performance (total return) by rating

-4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3%

Supras

Agencies

Public Banks

Regions

Bundesländer

Periphery

Non-Periphery

1W

1M

3M

6M

12M

YTD

-3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4%

Overall

AAA

AA

A

BBB

1W

1M

3M

6M

12M

YTD




of 31

SSA Charts & Graphs

Germany (by segments) France (by risk weight)

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

AS

W in

bp

years to maturity

National agencies Bundesländer Regional agencies Bunds

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

AS

W in

bp

years to maturity

RW: 0% RW: 20% OATs

Netherlands & Austria Supranationals

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

AS

W in

bp

years to maturity

Dutch agencies DSLs Austria Austrian agencies

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

AS

W in

bp

years to maturity

Supranationals Supranationals Bunds OATs

Core Periphery

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

AS

W in

bp

years to maturityGerman nat. agencies Bundesländer

German reg. agencies French RW: 0%

French RW: 20% Dutch agencies

Austrian agencies Supras

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

AS

W in

bp

years to maturity

Spanish agencies Spanish regions Italian agencies

Portuguese agencies Bonos BTPs

Portugal




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Appendix Publication overview

Publication Topics

29/2017 26 July Market overview

USD funding in comparison with EUR issue

Bank Gospodarstwa Krajowego (BGK)

ECB Tracker


mBank planning EUR-denominated sub-benchmark

EIOPA’s recommendation for changes to guarantees given by regional

governments and local authorities

ECB Tracker


Rising yields in the covered bond market

Issuer Guide Preview – an overview of the German Bundesländer

ECB Tracker


Covered Bonds – Half-year review and outlook

Overview of PSPP holdings

ECB Tracker

25/2017 28 June Market overview

Influence of the ECB in the primary market

Outlook for the second half of the year

Stability Council assembled for the 15th meeting

ECB Tracker


Kommunalkredit plans social covered bond

Review of H1 2017

ECB Tracker


Relative value among rates products

ECB Tracker


Santander takes over Banco Popular

Commerzbank surrenders licence for ship Pfandbriefe

Overview of PSPP holdings

ECB Tracker

21/2017 31 May Market overview

European Commission presents impact study on harmonisation

German Bundesländer – heavyweight in the sub-sovereign segment

ECB Tracker



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Appendix Contacts

Fixed Income Research

Michael Schulz Head +49 511 361-5309 [email protected]

Kai Ebeling Covered Bonds +49 511 361-9713 [email protected]

Mario Gruppe Public Issuers +49 511 361-9787 [email protected]

Michaela Hessmert Banks +49 511 361-6915 [email protected]

Melanie Kiene Banks +49 511 361-4108 [email protected]

Jörg Kuypers Corporates / Retail Products +49 511 361-9552 [email protected]

Matthias Melms Covered Bonds +49 511 361-5427 [email protected]

Norman Rudschuck Public Issuers +49 511 361-6627 [email protected]

Thomas Scholz Public Issuers +49 511 361-4710 [email protected]

Charline Strauch Corporates / Retail Products +49 511 361-2722 [email protected]

Martin Strohmeier Corporates / Retail Products +49 511 361-4712 [email protected]

Kai Witt Corporates / Retail Products +49 511 361-4639 [email protected]

Markets Sales

Carsten Demmler Head +49 511 361-5587 [email protected]

Institutional Sales (+49 511 9818-9440)

Thorsten Bock [email protected] Michael Reinsch [email protected]

Dr. Julka Deimling [email protected] Gabriele Schneider [email protected]

Uwe Kollster [email protected] Dirk Scholden [email protected]

Rainer Nabel [email protected] Uwe Tacke [email protected]

Daniel Novotny-Farkas [email protected]

Sales Savings Banks / Regional Banks (+49 511 9818-9400)

Christian Schneider (Head) [email protected] Martin Koch [email protected]

Thorsten Aberle [email protected] Stefan Krilcic [email protected]

Oliver Bickel [email protected] Bernd Lehmann [email protected]

Tobias Bohr [email protected] Jörn Meißner [email protected]

Kai-Ulrich Dörries [email protected] Lutz Schimanski [email protected]

Jan Dröge [email protected] Ralf Schirrling [email protected]

Sebastian Evers [email protected] Thomas Schmidt [email protected]

Sascha Goetz [email protected] Brian Zander [email protected]

Sales Asia (+65 64 203136) Anna Tea (Head) [email protected] Caroline Lim [email protected]

Jefferson Ko [email protected]

Fixed Income / Structured Products Sales Europe (+352 452211-515)

René Rindert (Head) [email protected] Patricia Lamas [email protected]

Petteri Kaijalainen [email protected] Laurence Payet [email protected]

Morgan Kermel [email protected]

Corporate Sales

Shipping / Aircraft +49 511 9818-8150 Corporate Clients +49 511 9818-4003

Real Estate / Structured Finance

+49 511 9818-8150 FX/MM

+49 511 9818-4006

Syndicate / DCM (+49 511 9818-6600)

Thomas Cohrs (Head) [email protected] Alexander Malitsky [email protected]

Maron Grimme [email protected] Julien Marchand [email protected]

Axel Hinzmann [email protected] Wlada Pesotska [email protected]

Thomas Höfermann [email protected] Andreas Raimchen [email protected]

Tobias Jesswein [email protected] Udo A. Schacht [email protected]

Markus Klingbeil [email protected] Marco da Silva [email protected]

Financial Markets Trading

Corporates +49 511 9818-9690 Collat. Mgmt / Repos +49 511 9818-9200

Covereds / SSAs +49 511 9818-8040 Cust. Exec. & Trading +49 511 9818-9480

Financials +49 511 9818-9490 Frequent Issuers +49 511 9818-9640

Governments +49 511 9818-9660 Structured Products +49 511 9818-9670

Länder & Regions +49 511 9818-9550

mailto:[email protected]








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results of the study are not affected by the knowledge of such conflicts of interest. Further information on these matters is set forth in our

Investment Recommendation or Conflict of Interest Policy which is available from the Compliance Unit of NORD/LB upon request.

Time of going to press

2 August 2017 08:18h (CET)

Disclosure of NORD/LB’s potential conflicts of interest according to § 34b Abs, 1 WpHG and

Article 5 and 6 according to the Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2016/958 of 9 March 2016

NORD/LB or one of its affiliated companies was a co-lead manager of a consortium, which took over the last of the issues of securities placed by Natixis Pfandbriefbank in the past 12 months.

Additional disclosures

Sources and price indications

Depending on the issuer, we use information from financial data suppliers, our own estimates, company data and the public media for the

preparation of our Investment Recommendations, Unless otherwise stated in the report, prices indicated relate to the closing price on the

previous day, Fees and commissions apply to securities (buy, sell, hold) and these may reduce the yield on investments,

Analytical methods and updates

In the preparation of Investment Recommendations, we take company-specific methods used for fundamental securities’ analysis and

quantitative/statistical methods, as well as technical analytical methods as the basis for valuations and for the regular updates, All as-

sumptions and analytical derivations related to our recommendation may be extracted from the underlying research analysis, It should be

noted that the results of analyses provide a snapshot overview and that past developments do not constitute a reliable indicator for future

profits, The basis of the valuations is subject to unforeseen change at any time, potentially leading to different conclusions, The present

report is prepared on a weekly basis, Recipients are not automatically entitled to receive report update publications, Detailed information

with respect to our rating methodology is available at the webpage www,nordlb-pib,de/Bewertungsverfahren,

Recommendation system Share of recommendation (12 months)

Positive: Positive expectations for the issuer, a security type or a specif-

ic security of an issuer,

Neutral: Neutral expectations for the issuer, a security type or a specif-

ic security of an issuer,

Negative: Negative expectations for the issuer, a security type or a

specific security of an issuer,

Relative value (RV): Relative value recommendation in comparison to

a market segment, an issuer or a maturity,

Positive: 46%

Neutral: 52%

Negative: 2%

Recommendation history (12 months)

An overview of all our bond recommendations during the last 12 months is available at the webpage www,nordlb-pib,de/empfehlungsuebersicht_renten, Corresponding password: "renten/Liste3",

Issuer / security Date Recommendation Bond type Cause

Distribution: 02.08.2017 15:57

https://www.nordlb-pib.de/Bewertungsverfahren

https://www.nordlb-pib.de/empfehlungsuebersicht_renten

https://www.nordlb-pib.de/empfehlungsuebersicht_renten

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