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TRANSCRIPT
Challenges, Opportunities, & Prospectsof US Dairy Production
Gordie Jones DVM53rd Florida Dairy Production ConferenceApril 20th 2017
Dr. Gordie Jones• 15 years Dairy Practice• 10 years Dairy Nutrition / Facility /Cow Comfort consulting • 3 years Monsanto (BST) consulting• 6 years designed & managed Fair Oaks Dairy Farms (20,000 cows)• 5 years building and managing my dairy farm!• Consulting again
53rd Florida Dairy Production Conference 115 Gainesville, FL, April 20, 2017
Remember we are here because we love cows!
53rd Florida Dairy Production Conference 116 Gainesville, FL, April 20, 2017
“Pleistocene Mega fauna”–Born during the last Ice Age
The First Farmers• Were in Mesopotamia• Modern day Iraq • Large headed grains• Wheat, Barley, Triticale• A stick in the sand• A little water and we were farmers!
53rd Florida Dairy Production Conference 117 Gainesville, FL, April 20, 2017
The First Farmers• Our First fences• Were to keep the wild cows out!!• She opened the gate• And we now had a cow!
Only 11 species were able to be domesticated.• Our Cow is the star!• She Provided POWER, Protein, & Fertilizer• She truly is the foundation of civilization.• The foster mother of the human race• All of the domesticated animals are “herd” species - looking for a leader• Except the Cat!!
53rd Florida Dairy Production Conference 118 Gainesville, FL, April 20, 2017
Covenant;To care for, and keep
The Star of the show!
53rd Florida Dairy Production Conference 119 Gainesville, FL, April 20, 2017
Guns, Germs & SteelJarred Diamond
Vaccine• First vaccine….• Small Pox• Cow Pox• Latin Vacca = Cow• Vaccinate
53rd Florida Dairy Production Conference 120 Gainesville, FL, April 20, 2017
Cow-inate!!!!
PM Fricke, Ph.D.
Trends in the Dairy Industry over the last 25 years can be best described by the term:CHANGE
53rd Florida Dairy Production Conference 121 Gainesville, FL, April 20, 2017
Most Dairy Farmers will double herd size 4 times.• Pretty easy when 25 cows• Become 50-100-200 cows• But as we get to 200 cows• Becomes 400-800-1,600 cows• Now we are at 1,600 becoming 3,200 cows• 3,200 cows and now dairymen are just• Building more 3,000 milk cow dairies
Dairy Sectors (who’s dairying?)• Sunset dairies
– Small dairies that will shut down when the current owner retires or leaves for economic, age, or lifestyle reasons• Niche dairies
– Production for a specific market or with a specialized system (organic, grazing, Amish, etc.)• Lifestyle dairies
– Operate with considerable off farm income for personal lifestyle reasons• Large dairies
– This is the principal sector in terms of current and future milk production in the United States and quickly across the world.– Large is a semi-load of milk at least every other day (400 cows)
53rd Florida Dairy Production Conference 122 Gainesville, FL, April 20, 2017
Four Major Forces Shaping US Dairing• Industrialization / consolidation of production
– The dairy industry is in a phase of rapid structural change– Large dairy production technology has irreversibly dominated the industry
• Globalization of markets– No beef moves to Japan from North America
• Food safety issues– BSE, E. coli 0157, organic markets, fear based food marketing, No GMO’s
• Consumerism– Low fat, Low carb, “Happy cows” Natural,
Challenges & Opportunities
53rd Florida Dairy Production Conference 123 Gainesville, FL, April 20, 2017
Dairy Farming• Run as a business, is a Great Way of Life• Run as a Way of Life, is a poor Business
Water• Climate Change• Current Demands NOT sustainable• Opportunity• Midwest
53rd Florida Dairy Production Conference 124 Gainesville, FL, April 20, 2017
Water, The Midwest is favored
Welfare• Tail Docking? Gone• Polled Cows• No overcrowding• All cows must go outside for part of day
53rd Florida Dairy Production Conference 125 Gainesville, FL, April 20, 2017
Hormones• Hormones Gone• No OvSync, Co Sync, Double Whatever Sync
Genetics
53rd Florida Dairy Production Conference 126 Gainesville, FL, April 20, 2017
Future Farms
53rd Florida Dairy Production Conference 127 Gainesville, FL, April 20, 2017
53rd Florida Dairy Production Conference 128 Gainesville, FL, April 20, 2017
010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,000
Milk Yi
eld (lb
s) Per C
ow Per
Year US
DA
ActualLinear (Actual)Expon. (Actual)
36,453
36,453
71,944
71,944
All breeds are included in these averages.
Mix of genes in future ?On-farm solids separation?Climate change?
Forecasters Estimate
Experts’ projections of milk yield in 2067
3.8 m
illion
3.8 m
illion
7.5 m
illion
7.5 m
illion D
airy C
ows
High Herds
High Cows
53rd Florida Dairy Production Conference 129 Gainesville, FL, April 20, 2017
05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,000
010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,000
1924
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1984
1989
1994
1999
2004
2009
2014
2019
2024
2029
2034
2039
2044
2049
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2059
2064
kg per c
ow pe
r year
lbs per
cow pe
r year
Actual YieldsActual Yields
LinearLinear
ExponentialExponential
USDA Agricultural Statistics Quick Survey Data
Expert’s forecast of milk yield in USAExpert’s forecast of milk yield in USA77,000 cow77,000 cow
43,000 herd43,000 herd
Dairy lateral integration in the futureDairy lateral integration in the future
MilkCowsMilkCows
MilkCowsMilkCows
MilkCowsMilkCows
MilkCowsMilkCows MilkCowsMilkCows
MilkCowsMilkCows
MilkCowsMilkCows
MilkCowsMilkCows
MilkCowsMilkCows
MilkCowsMilkCows
MilkCowsMilkCows
SharedDrySharedDry
SharedHeifersSharedHeifers
SharedTransitionSharedTransition
Feed CenterFeed Center
• Enhances labor efficiency• Common protocols• Driverless feed vehicles• Identical robotics and barns• Staff veterinarians
• Enhances labor efficiency• Common protocols• Driverless feed vehicles• Identical robotics and barns• Staff veterinarians
Shared DairyBeefShared DairyBeef
Feed CenterFeed Center
53rd Florida Dairy Production Conference 130 Gainesville, FL, April 20, 2017
Which farms will survive?
53rd Florida Dairy Production Conference 131 Gainesville, FL, April 20, 2017
Carrying capacity of USA agriculture is greatest with dairy!Carrying capacity of USA agriculture is greatest with dairy!
DairyDairy
VeganVegan
Peters, Christian J., Jamie Picardy, Amelia F. Darrouzet-Nardi, Jennifer L. Wilkins, Timothy S. Griffin, Gary W. Fick. 2016. Carrying capacity of U.S. agricultural land: Ten diet scenarios. Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene • 4: 000116 • doi: 10.12952/journal.elementa.000116Peters, Christian J., Jamie Picardy, Amelia F. Darrouzet-Nardi, Jennifer L. Wilkins, Timothy S. Griffin, Gary W. Fick. 2016. Carrying capacity of U.S. agricultural land: Ten diet scenarios. Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene • 4: 000116 • doi: 10.12952/journal.elementa.000116
Dairy Companies & Consultants• Everyone wants to “Value Add” to my business• First I do not care “what” you know• Until I know that you care!• And I need you to have “ownership” • What ever solutions you have for my problems• You need to have a belief that they work• And that they fit my dairy or problem.
53rd Florida Dairy Production Conference 132 Gainesville, FL, April 20, 2017
Cow Comfort is Universal• Cow Comfort is independent of size
53rd Florida Dairy Production Conference 133 Gainesville, FL, April 20, 2017
53rd Florida Dairy Production Conference 134 Gainesville, FL, April 20, 2017
Freestall PenHead to Tail
53rd Florida Dairy Production Conference 135 Gainesville, FL, April 20, 2017
53rd Florida Dairy Production Conference 136 Gainesville, FL, April 20, 2017
53rd Florida Dairy Production Conference 137 Gainesville, FL, April 20, 2017
53rd Florida Dairy Production Conference 138 Gainesville, FL, April 20, 2017
3 things a Cow Should Do!• Stand to MILK • Stand to EAT & DRINK• LAY DOWN
“ Milk is the Absence of stress!!!”
53rd Florida Dairy Production Conference 139 Gainesville, FL, April 20, 2017
Questions? Thoughts?
Dr. Gordie JonesPartner Central Sands Dairy, LLC.
Questions? Thoughts?
53rd Florida Dairy Production Conference 140 Gainesville, FL, April 20, 2017
NOTES
53rd Florida Dairy Production Conference 141 Gainesville, FL, April 20, 2017