3sbio inc.img.zhitongcaijing.com/uploadfile/20170315/1489559907340717.pdf · sfc ce ref: awu229 64...
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Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report
Equity Research
March 14, 2017
3SBio Inc.
Raising TP to reflect inclusion in the new NRDL
Company Update
Maintain BUY
What's new
We raise our 2018e net profit forecast and TP 12% and 30% to reflect the firm’s inclusion on the new National Reimbursement Drug List (NRDL) and improving investor confidence. We believe the financial impact from Yisaipu’s inclusion in the NRDL should be gradual and sustainable, given its significant market potential and the status of drugs for chronic diseases. Maintain BUY.
Comments
Expect Yisaipu sales to hit Rmb2.5~2.8bn in 2020. We expect TNF-α inhibitors to continue as the major therapy for RA and AS in China and to have a long-term market potential of Rmb20bn. Despite the potential challenge from Humira biosimilars over the long term, our provincial analysis shows that Yisaipu should deliver a 33% revenue CAGR for the next 3 years. We estimate the inclusion of Yisaipu in the NRDL will add 7ppt to the company’s 2018 growth.
Lifting peak sales estimate to Rmb1.5~2bn for TPIAO. Without reimbursement restriction, we expect the competitive landscape for TPIAO to improve significantly. Based on our provincial analysis, we expect 35% volume growth and an 8% price cut for TPIAO in 2018, which should add 2% growth to the company’s 2018 revenue.
Valuation and recommendation
We raise our DCF-based TP to HK$11.6 (2017/18e P/E of 29x/23x), 30% higher than our previous HK$8.9, mainly due to accelerated earnings growth from the inclusion in the new NRDL, as well as improving investor confidence. We raise our 2018 normalized EPS forecasts 12% to Rmb0.46, representing an EPS CAGR of 29% over 2016~18 (vs. 22% previously).
Risks
Larger-than-expected price cuts; slower-than-expected implementation of new NRDL.
Ticker 01530.HK
CICC investment rating BUY
Last close HK$9.20
CICC target HK$11.60
52wk price range HK$10.96~6.93
Market cap (bn) HK$23
Daily value (mn) HK$99.20
Shares outstanding (mn) 2,532
Free float (%) 100
Daily volume (mn sh) 11.17
Business sector Pharmaceuticals
(Rmb mn) 2015A 2016E 2017E 2018E
Revenue 1,673 2,801 3,603 4,467
(+/-) 48.0% 67.4% 28.6% 24.0%
Net profit 526 701 908 1,172
(+/-) 80.4% 33.1% 29.6% 29.1%
EPS 0.21 0.28 0.36 0.46
BPS 2.22 2.41 2.67 2.99
DPS 0.00 0.08 0.11 0.14
CPS 0.18 0.05 0.30 0.41
P/E 37.1 29.8 23.0 18.3
P/B 3.5 3.4 3.1 2.8
EV/EBITDA 38.9 28.6 20.3 15.9
Dividend yield 0.0% 1.0% 1.3% 1.6%
ROAA 11.8% 8.2% 8.4% 10.1%
ROAE 16.1% 11.9% 14.1% 16.4%
Source: Wind, Bloomberg, company data, CICC Research
Bo YU Ziyu HE Yanyin ZHU Jing QIANG, CFA
Analyst Associate Analyst Analyst [email protected]
SFC CE Ref: BJC515
SAC Reg. No.: S0080116050011
SAC Reg. No.: S0080116040003
SFC CE Ref: BIH554
SAC Reg. No.: S0080512070005
SFC CE Ref: AWU229
64
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01530.HK HSI
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CICC Research: March 14, 2017
Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report
2
Financial summary Financial statement (Rmb mn) 2015A 2016E 2017E 2018E
Income statement
Revenue 1,673 2,801 3,603 4,467
COGS -242 -473 -600 -718
Selling expenses -586 -1,008 -1,297 -1,608
Administrative expenses -301 -364 -468 -581
Other ops income (expense) -143 -233 -205 -214
Operating profit 402 723 1,033 1,346
Finance costs -27 -65 -130 -128
Other income (expense) 212 175 175 175
Profit before income tax 588 833 1,078 1,392
Income tax -62 -125 -162 -209
Minority interest 0 -7 -8 -11
Net profit 526 701 908 1,172
EBITDA 479 850 1,189 1,535
Recurrent net income 600 701 908 1,172
Balance sheet
Cash and bank balances 1,299 377 497 768
Trade and bill receivables 550 767 1,017 1,285
Inventories 134 230 296 354
Other current assets 780 869 923 985
Total current assets 2,763 2,243 2,733 3,392
Fixed assets and CIP 450 509 605 724
Intangible assets and others 3,417 7,658 7,784 7,900
Total non-current assets 3,867 8,167 8,389 8,624
Total assets 6,630 10,410 11,122 12,016
Short-term borrowings 405 778 778 778
Trade and bill payables 34 59 74 89
Other current liabilities 333 218 270 318
Total current liabilities 773 1,055 1,122 1,186
Long-term borrowings 0 3,000 3,000 3,000
Total non-current liabilities 222 3,222 3,222 3,222
Total liabilities 995 4,277 4,345 4,408
Share capital 0 0 0 0
Retained profit 5,624 6,115 6,750 7,571
Equity 5,624 6,115 6,750 7,571
Total liabilities & equity 6,630 10,410 11,122 12,016
Cash flow statement
Pretax profit 588 833 1,078 1,392
Depreciation & amortization 77 127 156 190
Change in working capital -643 -411 -302 -325
Others 433 -412 -162 -209
Cash flow from operations 455 137 771 1,048
Capital expenditure -98 -489 -378 -425
Others -3,151 -3,733 0 0
Cash flow from investing -3,248 -4,222 -378 -425
Equity financing 4,133 0 0 0
Bank borrowings -1,035 3,373 0 0
Others 770 -210 -272 -352
Cash flow from financing 3,868 3,163 -272 -352
Foreign exchange gain (loss) 116 0 0 0
Net changes in cash 1,075 -923 120 271
Financial ratios 2015A 2016E 2017E 2018E
Growth ability
Revenue 48.0% 67.4% 28.6% 24.0%
Operating profit 17.2% 79.8% 42.9% 30.3%
EBITDA 27.3% 77.3% 39.9% 29.1%
Net profit 80.4% 33.1% 29.6% 29.1%
Profitability
Gross margin 85.5% 83.1% 83.4% 83.9%
Operating margin 24.0% 25.8% 28.7% 30.1%
EBITDA margin 28.6% 30.3% 33.0% 34.4%
Net margin 31.5% 25.0% 25.2% 26.2%
Liquidity
Current ratio 3.58 2.13 2.43 2.86
Quick ratio 3.40 1.91 2.17 2.56
Cash ratio 1.68 0.36 0.44 0.65
Liabilities / assets 15.0% 41.1% 39.1% 36.7%
Net debt / equity net cash 55.5% 48.4% 39.6%
Return
RoA 11.8% 8.2% 8.4% 10.1%
RoE 16.1% 11.9% 14.1% 16.4%
Per-share data
EPS (Rmb) 0.21 0.28 0.36 0.46
BPS (Rmb) 2.22 2.41 2.67 2.99
DPS (Rmb) 0.00 0.08 0.11 0.14
Cash flow per share (Rmb) 0.18 0.05 0.30 0.41
Valuation
P/E 37.1 29.8 23.0 18.3
P/B 3.5 3.4 3.1 2.8
EV/EBITDA 38.9 28.6 20.3 15.9
Dividend yield 0.0% 1.0% 1.3% 1.6%
Source: Company data, CICC Research
Company description 3SBio Inc. is a leading domestic biotechnology company that ranks first nationally in terms of sales from mammalian cell-based biopharmaceuticals and second in terms of 2013 sales of all biopharmaceuticals. As a pioneer of China's biotechnology industry, it has
extensive expertise in developing, manufacturing and marketing biopharmaceuticals and its two core products, TPIAO and EPIAO,
are market leaders. It has recently acquired Sciprogen, whose product rhEPO will boost its product portfolio and increase its penetration into Grade II and Grade I hospitals, where rhEPO sales have been experiencing significant growth.
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CICC Research: March 14, 2017
Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report
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Financial impact from inclusion in the NRDL
We highlight three 3SBio drugs that should benefit from the release of new NRDL on February 27 – namely, Yisaipu (new addition), TPIAO (restrictions removed) and Qiming granule (new addition). We expect these drugs to make meaningful contributions in 2018, with a 9ppt hike in total revenue growth (from 15% to 24%). We estimate sales growth of Yisaipu and TPIAO at achieve 36% and 24% in 2018, vs. 14% and 16% growth previously. In addition, we expect Qiming granule to bring only 1% incremental growth in Zhejiang Wansheng. We summarize our new estimates vs. old estimates in the below figure.
Figure 1: Revenue forecast change by segment (2017~18)
Source: Company data, CICC Research
Rmb mn 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018
EPO franchise 869 946 869 945 0% 0%
TPIAO 899 1,117 899 1,043 0% 7%
CP Guojian 1,155 1,575 1,155 1,317 0% 20%
Byetta and Bydureon 151 217 151 217 0% 0%
Zhejiang Wansheng 245 272 245 270 0% 1%
Others 284 340 284 343 0% -1%
Total 3,603 4,467 3,603 4,134 0% 8%
YoY growth (%)
EPO franchise 9% 9% 9% 9% 0ppt 0.2ppt
TPIAO 17% 24% 17% 16% 0ppt 8.2ppt
CP Guojian 53% 36% 53% 14% 0ppt 22.3ppt
Byetta and Bydureon 650% 44% 650% 44% 0ppt 0ppt
Zhejiang Wansheng 10% 11% 10% 10% 0ppt 1ppt
Others 21% 20% 21% 21% 0ppt -0.9ppt
Total 29% 24% 29% 15% 0ppt 9.2ppt
Revenue breakdown(%)
EPO franchise 24% 21% 24% 23%
TPIAO 25% 25% 25% 25%
CP Guojian 32% 35% 32% 32%
Byetta and Bydureon 4% 5% 4% 5%
Zhejiang Wansheng 7% 6% 7% 7%
Others 8% 8% 8% 8%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100%
New estimates Change (%)Old estimates
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CICC Research: March 14, 2017
Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report
4
Yisaipu: Significant market potential with mild competitive landscape
Expecting Yisaipu to achieve sales of Rmb2.5~2.8bn in 2020
With a prevalence rate of ~0.35% for rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and ankylosing spondylitis (AS) in China, we estimate that ~8m people are suffering from these diseases. However, the treatment ratio with TNF-α
drugs is only at 1% in China, while most patients remain either untreated or only use traditional disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drugs (DMARDs) and non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs), which are generally used in the early stage of the diseases.
We highlight the TNF-α inhibitors have better efficacy vs. traditional DMARDs, and expect the overall market potential of TNF-α inhibitors to achieve Rmb20bn over the long-term, thanks to increasing affordability and greater patient awareness. We expect Yisaipu (the Enbrel biosimilar) to continue as a major therapy for autoimmune diseases in China, even though we estimate the launch of biosimilars of Humira might pose a challenge (Figure 2).
Figure 2: RA drug market in China (2016)
Note: Data excludes NSAIDs and DMARDs Source: Company data, CICC Research,
Financial impact from Yisaipu’s inclusion in the NRDL
Despite significant market potential, we estimate 36% revenue growth for Yisaipu in 2018 (vs. or previous estimate of 14% growth), leading to a 7ppt increase in total 2018 revenue growth. We expect 40% volume growth and a 6% price cut in 2018, mainly due to a tightening of the medical insurance policy, a higher sales base, the status of chronic disease drugs and management’s intention to maintain the price integrity. According to the company, one third of Yisaipu sales have been from the seven RDL-included provinces. With the firm being included in the new NRDL, we expect an immediate sales hike first to occur in most of remaining provinces. Later, increasing patient awareness and better affordability should drive long-term growth.
Figure 3 summarizes our updated scenario analysis of Yisaipu, with different assumptions on volume growth and price cuts. Our model reflects the base-case scenario.
57%
3%
5%
4%
26%
3% 2%
Yisaipu
Qiangke
Enbrel(originator)
Humira(originator)
Remicade(originator)
Actemra(originator)
Others
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CICC Research: March 14, 2017
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Figure 3: Scenario analysis on the NRDL inclusion of Yisaipu
Source: Company data, CICC Research
Provincial analysis for Yisaipu (Shanghai, Shanxi, Hunan, Hubei)
In 2006, CP Guojian launched Yisaipu as the first TNF-α drug in China for treating RA, AS and psoriasis. Over 2010~2012, it was included in reimbursement drug lists (RDLs) in seven provinces – namely, Shanghai, Guangdong, Shanxi, Hunan, Hainan, Gansu and Tibet. We analyzed the sales data of Yisaipu in Shanghai, Shanxi, Hunan and used Hubei as a control group in figures below. Our analysis suggests that both sales and volume saw over 80% growth in Shanxi and Hunan during the year that Yisaipu was included in the RDL. However, this trend was not obvious in Shanghai and Hubei (control group). As Shanghai is the base for CP Guojian, we believe Yisaipu was largely supported by the local government and social medical insurance. In addition, we highlight that Yisaipu experienced a mild price cut of ~6% after being included in the seven provincial RDLs.
Figure 4: Revenue growth in Shanghai (Yisaipu) Figure 5: Volume growth in Shanghai (Yisaipu)
Source: PDB, CICC Research Source: PDB, CICC Research
RMB thousand 2013A 2014A 2015A 2016E 2017E 2018E
Yisaipu/CPGJ - previous
Revenue 727,837 775,851 877,346 1,008,948 1,155,245 1,316,980
YoY 6.6% 13.1% 15.0% 14.5% 14.0%
Net profit 298,329 213,421 253,588 302,684 346,574 395,094
YoY -28.5% 18.8% 19.4% 14.5% 14.0%
Net margin 41.0% 27.5% 28.9% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0%
Yisaipu/CPGJ - best (50% volume growth with 9% price cut in 2018)
Revenue 727,837 775,851 877,346 1,008,948 1,155,245 1,647,380
YoY 6.6% 13.1% 15.0% 14.5% 42.6%
Net profit 298,329 213,421 253,588 302,684 346,574 494,214
YoY -28.5% 18.8% 19.4% 14.5% 42.6%
Net margin 41.0% 27.5% 28.9% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0%
Yisaipu/CPGJ - base (40% volume growth with 6% price cut in 2018)
Revenue 727,837 775,851 877,346 1,008,948 1,155,245 1,574,599
YoY 6.6% 13.1% 15.0% 14.5% 36.3%
Net profit 298,329 213,421 253,588 302,684 346,574 472,380
YoY -28.5% 18.8% 19.4% 14.5% 36.3%
Net margin 41.0% 27.5% 28.9% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0%
Yisaipu/CPGJ - bear (30% volume growth with 3% price cut in 2018)
Revenue 727,837 775,851 877,346 1,008,948 1,155,245 1,512,794
YoY 6.6% 13.1% 15.0% 14.5% 31.0%
Net profit 298,329 213,421 253,588 302,684 346,574 453,838
YoY -28.5% 18.8% 19.4% 14.5% 31.0%
Net margin 41.0% 27.5% 28.9% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0%
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Figure 6: Revenue growth in Shanxi (Yisaipu) Figure 7: Volume growth in Shanxi (Yisaipu)
Source: PDB, CICC Research Source: PDB, CICC Research
Figure 8: Revenue growth in Hunan (Yisaipu) Figure 9: Volume growth in Hunan (Yisaipu)
Source: PDB, CICC Research Source: PDB, CICC Research
Figure 10: Revenue growth in Hubei as a control
group (Yisaipu)
Figure 11: Volume growth in Hubei as a control
group (Yisaipu)
Source: PDB, CICC Research Source: PDB, CICC Research
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CICC Research: March 14, 2017
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Figure 12: ASP trend in Shanghai (Yisaipu) Figure 13: ASP trend in Hunan (Yisaipu)
Source: PDB, CICC Research Source: PDB, CICC Research
TPIAO: Raising peak sales estimate to Rmb1.5~2bn from Rmb1~1.5bn
previously
With the removal of reimbursement restriction, we expect the competitive advantage of TPIAO to improve significantly. In addition, we highlight the penetration rate of TPIAO in the chemo-induced thrombocytopenia (CIT) and immune thrombocytopenia (ITP) markets is now less than 10%. We expect the penetration rate to achieve 20~30% in the future.
Financial impact from TPIAO’s inclusion in the NRDL
We estimate 24% revenue growth for TPIAO (vs. 16% growth previously), contributing 2ppt TO total revenue growth. We anticipate 35% volume growth and an 8% price cut in 2018, mainly due to a higher sales base and management’s intention of maintaining the price integrity. The company says that one-third of TPIAO sales were generated in the seven provinces where restrictions were removed. With the nationwide removal of restrictions, we expect immediate sales hikes first to occur in the remaining provinces.
Below we summarize our scenario analysis on TPIAO. Our model reflects the base-case scenario.
Figure 14: Scenario analysis on the NRDL inclusion of TPIAO
Source: Company data, CICC Research
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RMB thousand 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015A 2016E 2017E 2018E
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Revenue 210,391 314,159 444,676 605,100 768,477 899,118 1,042,977
YoY 49.3% 41.5% 36.1% 27.0% 17.0% 16.0%
TPIAO - best (45% volume growth with 10% price cut in 2018)
Revenue 210,391 314,159 444,676 605,100 768,477 899,118 1,173,349
YoY 49.3% 41.5% 36.1% 27.0% 17.0% 30.5%
TPIAO - base (35% volume growth with 8% price cut in 2018)
Revenue 210,391 314,159 444,676 605,100 768,477 899,118 1,116,705
YoY 49.3% 41.5% 36.1% 27.0% 17.0% 24.2%
TPIAO - bear (25% volume growth with 5% price cut in 2018)
Revenue 210,391 314,159 444,676 605,100 768,477 899,118 1,067,703
YoY 49.3% 41.5% 36.1% 27.0% 17.0% 18.8%
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CICC Research: March 14, 2017
Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report
8
Historical growth trend and ASP trend after removing usage restriction
TPIAO was launched in 2006 and was included in 2009 version of NRDL. We highlight that seven provinces (Shanghai, Shaanxi, Liaoning, Jilin, Heilongjiang, Hainan, and Tibet) removed the reimbursement limitation over 2010~2012, when releasing their provincial RDLs. We analyzed the sales data in Shanghai, Shaanxi and Liaoning, and use Guangdong as a control group in below figures. We highlight that TPIAO has experienced obvious volume growth hike in all three provinces, vs. steady growth in Guangdong. In addition, the price cuts were mild, within 10% for all the provinces.
Figure 15: Revenue growth in Shanghai (TPIAO) Figure 16: Volume growth in Shanghai (TPIAO)
Source: PDB, CICC Research Source: PDB, CICC Research
Figure 17: Revenue growth in Shaanxi (TPIAO) Figure 18: Volume growth in Shaanxi (TPIAO)
Source: PDB, CICC Research Source: PDB, CICC Research
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9
Figure 19: Revenue growth in Liaoning (TPIAO) Figure 20: Volume growth in Liaoning (TPIAO)
Source: PDB, CICC Research Source: PDB, CICC Research
Figure 21: Revenue growth in Guangdong as a
control group (TPIAO)
Figure 22: Volume growth in Guangdong as a
control group (TPIAO)
Source: PDB, CICC Research Source: PDB, CICC Research
Figure 23: ASP trend in Shanghai (TPIAO) Figure 24: ASP trend in Shaanxi (TPIAO)
Source: PDB, CICC Research Source: PDB, CICC Research
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 1.0
1.5
2.7 3.6
6.3
7.7
-100%
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
-
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
Revenue YoYRmb mn
0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.8
1.3
2.4 3.2
5.6
6.9
-100%
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
-
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
Volume YoYthousand
2
16 22 24
28 30 38
48
59 66
84
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Revenue YoYRmb mn
1
13 18 20
26 28 35
44 53
61
78
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Volume YoYthousand
-7%
-6%
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016E
-3%
-3%
-2%
-2%
-1%
-1%
0%
1%
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016E
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CICC Research: March 14, 2017
Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report
10
Earnings preview for 2016 results
We expect an inline-to-slight-beat 2016 results to be released on March 17. Below we summarize our revenue forecasts by products as well as our estimates vs. consensus. We highlight that the high growth in 2016 was mainly due to the consolidation effect from Zhejiang Wansheng, CP Guojian and Byetta.
Figure 25: 2016 revenue forecasts
Source: Company data, CICC Research
Figure 26: CICC estimates vs. consensus for 2016 results
Source: Company data, Bloomberg, CICC Research
Rmb mn 2015 2016E YoY As % of total
EPO franchise 727 798 10% 28%
TPIAO 605 768 27% 27%
CP Guojian - 757 N/A 27%
Byetta and Bydureon - 20 N/A 1%
Zhejiang Wansheng 103 223 116% 8%
Others 238 235 -1% 8%
Total 1,673 2,801 67% 100%
Rmb mn 2016E YoY
2016
consensus YoY
CICC estimates
vs. consensus
Revenue 2,801 67.4% 2,866 71.3% -2.3%
Gross profit 2,328 62.7% 2,463 72.1% -5.5%
Operating profit 723 79.8% 859 113.6% -15.8%
Core profit (excluding one-time items) 701 16.8% 726 21.1% -3.5%
Fully diluted core EPS (Rmb) 0.28 16.8% 0.29 21.1% -3.5%
Gross margin 83.1% -2.4ppt 85.9% 0.4ppt -2.8ppt
Operating margin 25.8% 1.8ppt 30.0% 5.9ppt -4.2ppt
Net margin (excluding one-time items) 25.0% -10.8ppt 25.3% -10.5ppt -0.3ppt
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CICC Research: March 14, 2017
Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report
11
Model and forecast change
We adjust our earnings forecasts to reflect the inclusion of Yisaipu, TPIAO and Qiming granule in the new NRDL. We previously excluded these into our estimates due to the uncertainty in both timing and products that would be included in the new NRDL. We highlight that the inclusion of Yisaipu in the new NRDL has largely exceeded market expectations. We illustrate our current and previous forecasts in Figure 27.
Figure 27: Earnings forecast revisions
Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research
2016E 2017E 2018E
Revenue Before 2,801 3,603 4,134
(RMB mn) After 2,801 3,603 4,467
(+/-) 0.0% 0.0% 8.0%
Gross Profits Before 2,328 3,004 3,436
(RMB mn) After 2,328 3,004 3,749
(+/-) 0.0% 0.0% 9.1%
Operating Income Before 723 1,032 1,192
(RMB mn) After 723 1,033 1,346
(+/-) 0.0% 0.0% 12.9%
Net Income Before 701 908 1,044
(RMB mn) After 701 908 1,172
(+/-) 0.0% 0.0% 12.3%
Net Income, normalized Before 701 908 1,044
(RMB mn) After 701 908 1,172
(+/-) 0.0% 0.0% 12.3%
Number of shares Before 2,532 2,532 2,532
(mn) After 2,532 2,532 2,532
(+/-) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fully diluted EPS, normalized Before 0.31 0.39 0.45
(HKD) After 0.31 0.40 0.51
(+/-) 0.0% 2.9% 14.9%
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CICC Research: March 14, 2017
Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report
12
Figure 28: Historical P/E and P/B bands
Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research
Figure 29: Valuation of comparable companies
Note: We use CICC estimates for covered companies (highlighted in gray), and Bloomberg estimates for non-covered companies Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research
4
8
12
16
Jun
-15
Jul-
15
Au
g-1
5
Se
p-1
5
Oct-
15
Nov-1
5
Dec-1
5
Jan
-16
Fe
b-1
6
Ma
r-1
6
Ap
r-16
Ma
y-1
6
Jun
-16
Jul-
16
Au
g-1
6
Se
p-1
6
Oct-
16
Nov-1
6
Dec-1
6
Jan
-17
Fe
b-1
7
Ma
r-1
7
P/E
1530.HK 18X 24X 30X 36X
4
8
12
16
Jun
-15
Jul-
15
Au
g-1
5
Se
p-1
5
Oct-
15
Nov-1
5
Dec-1
5
Jan-1
6
Fe
b-1
6
Ma
r-1
6
Ap
r-16
Ma
y-1
6
Jun
-16
Jul-
16
Au
g-1
6
Se
p-1
6
Oct-
16
Nov-1
6
Dec-1
6
Jan
-17
Fe
b-1
7
Ma
r-1
7
P/B
1530.HK 2.7X 3.3X 3.9X 4.7X
Ticker MktCap
2017/3/13 (HK$mn) 2016A/E 2017E 2018E 2016A/E 2017E 2018E 2016A/E 2017E 2018E 2016A/E 2017E 2018E 2016A/E 2017E 2018E
HK-listed conglomerate companies
Shanghai Pharmaceutical 2607.HK 19.94 61,880 1.19 1.31 1.47 14.9 14.0 12.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 11.8 10.5 9.5 10.0 10.3 10.8 n.a.
Guangzhou Pharmaceutical 874.HK 23.25 49,676 0.87 0.95 0.84 24.0 22.5 25.6 2.2 2.1 2.0 21.4 19.0 17.1 12.3 11.5 10.8 0.0
CR Pharmaceutical 3320.HK 8.55 53,733 0.43 0.56 0.63 19.9 15.1 13.5 1.2 1.2 1.1 8.9 7.8 6.8 8.9 8.3 9.1 0.0
Market cap weighted average 71,142 18.8 15.8 15.2 1.9 1.8 1.6 12.2 10.8 9.7 11.7 11.3 11.5 0.6
Median 61,880 19.0 14.6 13.0 1.8 1.7 1.6 10.7 9.5 8.5 11.2 10.9 10.8 0.0
HK-listed pharmaceutical companies
CSPC Pharmaceutical Group 1093.HK 9.87 59,738 0.36 0.45 0.54 27.6 21.9 18.4 5.8 5.0 4.2 17.9 14.9 12.3 21.8 23.3 24.2 1.1
Tongrentang Tech 1666.HK 13.88 17,777 0.51 0.60 0.71 24.4 21.2 17.9 3.1 2.8 2.5 13.3 11.5 10.1 15.2 14.4 14.5 1.2
Tongrentang Chinese Medicine 8138.HK 10.32 8,639 0.53 0.61 0.63 19.5 16.8 16.5 3.9 3.4 3.0 12.5 11.0 9.9 21.9 21.4 20.1 1.3
Livzon Pharmaceutical Group 1513.HK 46.50 23,989 1.79 2.25 2.33 23.2 19.0 18.4 2.9 2.6 2.1 15.3 12.8 11.2 14.2 14.5 13.3 1.2
Sino Biopharmaceutical 1177.HK 6.97 51,663 0.26 0.29 0.28 26.3 23.6 25.1 5.0 4.2 3.7 13.5 12.2 10.6 22.8 20.6 20.4 0.9
Shijiazhuang No.4 Pharmaceutical 2005.HK 2.85 8,094 0.15 0.16 0.18 19.5 17.8 15.5 3.1 2.8 2.5 11.4 10.3 9.4 18.3 18.4 18.5 0.9
3SBio 1530.HK 9.40 23,804 0.28 0.36 0.41 30.4 24.1 21.0 3.4 3.0 2.6 21.6 17.2 14.1 11.9 13.9 15.4 0.0
Hec Changjiang Pharma 1558.HK 16.02 7,241 0.78 0.99 1.23 18.4 14.8 12.0 2.6 2.3 1.9 11.1 8.6 6.9 14.5 16.3 17.0 1.1
Lee's Pharmaceutical 950.HK 6.54 3,859 0.42 0.45 0.50 15.6 14.5 13.2 2.3 2.0 1.8 10.5 9.7 8.9 16.7 16.6 16.3 1.6
Luye Pharma 2186.HK 4.76 15,808 0.27 0.32 0.36 16.0 13.6 12.2 2.2 1.9 1.6 11.7 9.9 8.9 14.1 14.9 14.8 0.8
Consun Pharmaceutical 1681.HK 4.40 4,287 0.30 0.45 0.56 13.1 9.0 7.2 n.a. n.a. n.a. 8.6 5.7 4.7 18.3 26.6 28.9 3.1
Dawnways Pharmaceutical 2348.HK 4.29 3,437 0.40 0.47 0.55 9.7 8.4 7.1 1.9 1.6 1.4 5.5 4.6 4.2 n.a. n.a. n.a. 3.3
Sihuan Pharmaceutical 460.HK 2.90 27,492 0.16 0.18 0.19 16.2 15.1 13.8 2.2 2.0 1.8 9.7 9.0 8.3 13.6 13.4 13.2 2.3
United Lab International 3933.HK 4.98 8,102 0.06 0.24 0.30 77.8 20.6 16.5 1.2 1.2 1.1 10.0 8.5 7.9 1.7 5.4 6.4 0.0
Market cap weighted average 40,955 23.8 19.2 17.5 3.7 3.2 2.8 17.4 14.7 12.6 16.8 17.3 17.7 1.1
Median 12,224 19.5 17.3 15.9 2.9 2.6 2.2 12.1 10.7 9.7 15.2 16.27 16.3 1.1
HK-listed medical device companies
Shandong Weigao 1066.HK 4.65 20,815 0.21 0.30 0.35 19.7 14.1 12.4 1.5 1.4 1.3 9.7 7.9 7.1 9.8 12.2 11.0 1.9
LifeTech Scientific 1302.HK 1.95 8,427 0.02 0.03 0.06 75.9 56.1 29.9 15.8 11.6 7.9 65.9 27.2 20.2 36.0 37.0 35.5 0.0
PW Medtech 1358.HK 1.80 2,845 0.14 0.17 0.17 11.9 9.7 9.7 1.1 0.9 0.8 7.6 6.5 6.7 9.5 9.5 9.5 0.0
Beijing Chunlizhengda Medical 1858.HK 13.10 906 0.87 1.08 1.17 13.5 11.2 10.3 1.6 1.4 1.2 8.8 7.1 5.8 13.1 14.1 14.1 n.a.
Market cap weighted average 5,897 31.9 23.4 16.1 4.8 3.7 2.8 22.6 12.3 10.0 15.8 17.6 16.7 1.1
Median 3,310 18.9 13.8 11.6 1.6 1.4 1.3 9.7 7.9 6.7 9.8 12.2 12.0 0.0
HK-listed medical services companies
Kanghua Healthcare 3689.HK 11.02 3,685 0.44 0.53 0.61 22.6 19.1 16.5 2.7 2.4 2.2 14.6 12.4 10.4 17.5 13.7 14.6 0.0
Phoenix Healthcare 1515.HK 10.00 12,967 0.27 0.33 0.42 33.0 27.8 21.9 5.5 5.2 4.4 28.5 18.2 14.0 14.1 16.0 16.6 0.0
Harmonicare Medical 1509.HK 4.30 3,261 0.15 0.17 0.22 26.5 23.3 18.2 1.9 1.8 1.6 10.0 8.1 6.8 7.7 8.5 9.9 1.4
Wenzhou Kangning Hospital 2120.HK 35.00 2,556 1.01 1.31 1.72 31.1 24.6 18.7 2.3 2.1 2.0 17.3 11.9 9.1 7.1 8.8 10.6 n.a.
Market cap weighted average 8,755 30.2 25.4 20.1 4.2 3.9 3.3 22.3 15.1 11.8 12.9 13.7 14.6 0.2
Median 3,261 28.8 24.0 18.4 2.5 2.3 2.1 15.9 12.2 9.8 10.9 11.2 12.6 0.0
Div.
YieldCompany
Price
(HK$)
P/E P/B EV/ EBITDA ROEEPS(Reporting ccy)
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CICC Research
Important legal disclosures
General Disclosures
This report has been produced by China International Capital Corporation Hong Kong Securities Limited (CICCHKS). This report is based on information available
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complete. The information and opinions contained herein are for investors’ reference only and do not take into account the particular investment objectives,
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“EQUAL-WEIGHT” to end up between 10% below and 10% above the market, and “UNDERWEIGHT” to fall behind the market by 10% or more, over the next
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V160908
Editing: Wanbo ZHOU, Robert Parker
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Beijing Jianguomenwai Avenue Branch Beijing Kexueyuan South Road Branch Shanghai Middle Huaihai Road Branch
1st Floor, Capital Tower
6A Jianguomenwai Avenue
Beijing 100022, P.R. China
Tel: (86-10) 8567-9238
Fax: (86-10) 8567-9235
6th Floor, Block A, Raycom Infotech Park
2 Kexueyuan South Road, Haidian District
Beijing 100022, P.R. China
Tel: (86-10) 8286-1086
Fax: (86-10) 8286 1106
398 Huaihai Road (M)
Shanghai 200020, P.R. China
Tel: (86-21) 6386-1195
Fax: (86-21) 6386-1180
Shanghai Defeng Road Branch Shenzhen Fuhuayilu Branch Hangzhou Jiaogong Road Branch
Room 1105, Building A
299-1 Defeng Road, Fengxian District
Shanghai 201400, P.R. China
Tel: (86-21) 5879-6226
Fax: (86-21) 6887-5123
Room 201, Annex Building
Shenzhen Duty Free Commercial Tower
6 Fuhua 1st Road, Futian District
Shenzhen 518048, P.R. China
Tel: (86-755) 8832-2388
Fax: (86-755) 8254-8243
1st Floor, Euro American Center
18 Jiaogong Road
Hangzhou 310012, P.R. China
Tel: (86-571) 8849-8000
Fax: (86-571) 8735-7743
Nanjing Hanzhong Road Branch Guangzhou Tianhe Road Branch Chengdu Binjiang Road (East) Branch
Section C, 30th Floor, Asia Pacific Tower
2 Hanzhong Road, Gulou District
Nanjing 210005, P.R. China
Tel: (86-25) 8316-8988
Fax: (86-25) 8316-8397
40th Floor, Teemtower
208 Tianhe Road
Guangzhou 510620, P.R. China
Tel: (86-20) 8396-3968
Fax: (86-20) 8516-8198
1st & 16th Floors, Shangri-La Center
Block 9B, Binjiang Road (East)
Chengdu 610021, P.R. China
Tel: (86-28) 8612-8188
Fax: (86-28) 8444-7010
Xiamen Lianyue Road Branch Wuhan Zhongnan Road Branch Qingdao Middle Hongkong Road Branch
4th Floor, Office Building, Paragon Center
1 Lianyue Road, Siming District
Xiamen 361012, P.R. China
Tel: (86-592) 515-7000
Fax: (86-592) 511-5527
4301-B, Poly Plaza
99 Zhongnan Road, Wuchang District
Wuhan 430070, P.R. China
Tel: (86-27) 8334-3099
Fax: (86-27) 8359-0535
11th Floor, Shangri-La Center
Block 9, Hongkong Road (M), South District
Qingdao 266071, P.R. China
Tel: (86-532) 6670-6789
Fax: (86-532) 6887-7018
Chongqing Honghu Road (West) Branch Tianjin Nanjing Road Branch Dalian Gangxing Road Branch
1st & 10th Floors, Ourui Lanjue Center
Block 9, Honghu Road (W), New North District
Chongqing 401120, P.R. China
Tel: (86-23) 6307-7088
Fax: (86-23) 6739-6636
10th Floor, Tianjin Global Trading Center
219 Nanjing Road, Heping District
Tianjin 300051, P.R. China
Tel: (86-22) 2317-6188
Fax: (86-22) 2321-5079
16th Floor, Wanda Center
6 Gangxing Road, Zhongshan District
Dalian 116001, P.R. China
Tel: (86-411) 8237-2388
Fax: (86-411) 8814-2933
Foshan Jihua 5th Road Branch Yunfu Xinxing Dongdi North Road Branch Changsha Chezhan Road (North) Branch
12th Floor, Trend International Business Building
2 Jihua 5th Road, Chancheng District
Foshan 528000, P.R. China
Tel: (86-757) 8290-3588
Fax: (86-757) 8303-6299
2nd Floor, Service Building C1, Wens Science &
Technology Garden, Dongdi North Road
Xincheng Town, Xinxing County
Yunfu 527499, P.R. China
Tel: (86-766) 2985-088
Fax: (86-766) 2985-018
3rd Floor, Annex Building, Securities Tower
459 Chezhan Road (North), Furong District
Changsha 410001, P.R. China
Tel: (86-731) 8878-7088
Fax: (86-731) 8446-2455
Ningbo Yangfan Road Branch Fuzhou Wusi Road Branch
11th Floor, Building Five, 999 Yangfan Road
Hi-tech Industrial Development Zone
Ningbo 315103, P.R. China
Tel: (86-574) 8907-7288
Fax: (86-574) 8907-7328
38th Floor, Henglicheng Office Building
No.128 Wusi Road, Gulou District
Fuzhou 350001, P.R. China
Tel: (86-591) 8625 3088
Fax: (86-591) 8625 3050
Beijing Shanghai Hong Kong China International Capital
Corporation Limited
28th Floor, China World Office 2
1 Jianguomenwai Avenue
Beijing 100004, P.R. China
Tel: (86-10) 6505-1166
Fax: (86-10) 6505-1156
China International Capital
Corporation Limited – Shanghai Branch
32nd Floor Azia Center
1233 Lujiazui Ring Road
Shanghai 200120, P.R. China
Tel: (86-21) 5879-6226
Fax: (86-21) 5888-8976
China International Capital
Corporation (Hong Kong) Limited
29th Floor, One International Finance Centre
1 Harbour View Street
Central, Hong Kong
Tel: (852) 2872-2000
Fax: (852) 2872-2100
Shenzhen Singapore United Kingdom China International Capital
Corporation Limited – Shenzhen Branch
#2503, 25th Floor, China Merchants Bank Tower
7088 Shennan Boulevard, Futian District
Shenzhen 518040, P.R. China
Tel: (86-755) 8319-5000
Fax: (86-755) 8319-9229
China International Capital
Corporation (Singapore) Pte. Limited
#39-04, 6 Battery Road
Singapore 049909
Tel: (65) 6572-1999
Fax: (65) 6327-1278
China International Capital
Corporation (UK) Limited
Level 25, 125 Old Broad Street
London EC2N 1AR, United Kingdom
Tel: (44-20) 7367-5718
Fax: (44-20) 7367-5719