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30 June 2016
2 CIVAS White Paper | June 2016 | Logistics | Colliers International
Hannah Jeong Director
Valuation and Advisory Services
Logistics real estate market investment
is highly sought by both regional and
local investors looking for high-yields.
Traditional retailers and manufacturers
have been the major demand drivers.
However, there is no doubt that the
fast-ever-growing E-commerce and
3PLs (Third Party Logistics) companies
are also emerging demand drivers.
Thanks to advanced mobile commerce
and arising internet penetration rate in
Asia, E-commerce together with 3PLs
businesses will continuously grow.
However, due to time constraints on
lengthy physical developments of
logistics centres, new supply is
projected to not be able to catch up with
the speed of this fast-growing demand,
at least for the next five years.
Therefore, the demand will continue to
outpace the supply in Asia.
In order to capture the rental premium
from these two sectors, the investors
need to build the logistics centres in a
close proximity to the city centres with
higher specifications and flexible
structures. The logistics centre will
evolve from a simple warehouse to a
more value-added centre and if the
buildings and facilities are ready to be
upgraded and transformable, they will
have a potential to generate higher
yields.
> Major Logistics Players
Major logistics players in Asia include GLP, Goodman,
Prologis, ERW (e-Shang and Redwood) and Mapletree,
which have heavy footprints in China, Japan, Hong
Kong and Singapore and are emerging in Korea and
other Southeast Asian counties. Of course there are
locally focused investors and fast-growing international
second movers in each country.
> E-Commerce market is far from saturation
Retail E-commerce sales share among total retail sales
is forecasted to increase significantly, especially in
China and India, in five years’ time, according to
eMarketer’s data (2014). Even mature markets like
Japan are still looking at almost doubling their E-
commerce sales share among total retail sales by 2019.
This indicates that logistics market demand from E-
commerce will continue to grow, which requires bigger
and larger scale warehouse spaces.
> 3PLs, raising star
Third Party Logistics (3PLs) is tightly connected and
benefited from the booming E-commerce industry
globally. In general, 3PLs require smaller scale logistics
warehouses but extensive network coverage for speedy
delivery. Proximity to city centres and residential
neighbourhoods are the key for logistics centres in
order to capture the growing demand from 3PLs. More
and more developers build multi-storey logistics centres
even for the markets where traditionally served by
single storey centres because of increasing industrial
land price in Asia, however, multi-storey logistics
centres are not the first choice for 3PLs.
> New Landscape
E-commerce’s new services such as E-fulfilment,
delivery consolidation and reverse logistics will change
the overall logistics real estate market landscape,
particularly for their location. Focus will be shifted from
the traditional logistics centre locations such as major
transportation nodes to the city centres. Further, higher
specifications including extra added-value spaces for
working and packing, extra cooling and heating facilities
for staff and higher ceiling height will be required to
accommodate rapidly transforming E-commerce
tenants.
3 CIVAS White Paper | June 2016 | Logistics | Colliers International
Contents Logistics, a Highly Sought Investment
Market ………………………………….. 4
Who are the Major E-commerce Players
by Market Share? ………………..……. 5
3PLs, Growing Demand …………..…. 6 How is E-commerce Changing the Logistics Real Estate Landscape? ……………………………. 7 Final Thoughts ………………………… 8 Asia Logistics Market Snapshot …….. 9
4 CIVAS White Paper | June 2016 | Logistics | Colliers International
Logistics, a Highly Sought Investment Market The logistics real estate market has been chased by
massive capital around the world, especially in Asia.
Given that it is a high yield-generating investment sector
with less intensive asset management involvement and
that it is also well supported by governments as a core
infrastructure of each country, it has continuously
received high attention from major investors. Large
pension funds such as CCPIB, APG and Ivanhoe
Cambridge are major Limited Partners (LPs) for various
real estate investment funds focusing on logistics
properties ranging from greenfield developments to
existing building acquisition and long-term asset
management.
Chart 1: China Logistics Area Comparison by Key Players
Source: GLP (May 2016), Colliers International Remark:*e-Shang share did not include Redwood in this comparison.
Chart 2: Japan Logistics Area Comparison by Key Players
Source: GLP (May 2016)
Major logistics players in Asia include GLP, Goodman,
Prologis, ERW (e-Shang and Redwood) and Mapletree,
which have heavy footprints in China, Japan, Hong Kong
and Singapore and are emerging in Korea and other
Southeast Asian counties. Of course there are locally
focused investors and fast-growing international second
movers in each country. As shown in Chart 1 and 2, GLP
is the market leader in terms of physical asset size for
China and Japan, where the highest GDPs are recorded
in Asia.
Based on our research, Korean logistics warehouses are
largely owned and occupied by end users (e.g. Korean
major conglomerates and major E-commerce companies
such as Coupang) in Korea. International players
including GIC, Mapletree and Kendall Square logistics
properties also have a presence there.
Hong Kong and Singapore are relatively smaller markets
in Asia, although both have achieved the highest rents
and capital values (see Chapter 9 in page 8).
Singapore’s logistics warehouses are largely owned and
managed by various REITs, namely, Mapletree Industrial
Trust, Mapletree Logistics Trust, AIMS AMP REIT, VIVA
Industrial Trust REIT, Cambridge Industrial Trust REIT,
AREIT and Soilbuild REIT. In Hong Kong, active
investors are real estate investment funds focusing on
logistics properties (e.g. Goodman and Mapletree),
logistics companies (Kerry Logistics and SF Logistics)
and major domestic developers (Sun Hung Kai,
Hutchison Group and Kowloon Wharf).
Single storey logistics properties (average ceiling height
from 9 m to 15 m) are commonly found in China, Japan,
Korea and India. On the other hand, multi-storey
warehouses are predominated the market in Singapore
and Hong Kong due to limited land resources.
In terms of demand, major tenants that are committed in
high-quality logistics properties comprise traditional
retailers (automobile, furniture, apparel and other goods),
manufacturers, E-commerce and 3PLs (3rd Party
Logistics).
The market pays attention to E-commerce and 3PLs that
have the most active and fastest growing demand for
logistics warehouses, especially in China, Japan and
Korea. In India, the demand from E-commerce is
emerging as well. 3PL includes LTL logistics (Less Than
Truckload) and CEP (Courier, Express and Parcel) firms
that are tightly related to the growth of E-commerce. E-
commerce retailers carry significantly greater product
variety. They require larger spaces on average and
strategic locations with good connections to major
transportation nodes. 3PLs need more extensive
logistics warehouse networks as they need to ensure
fast and efficient door-to-door delivery.
9.9
1.5 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.8 0.9
0.5 0.2 0.2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
GLP Blogis Goodman e-Shang Prologis Mapletree Yupei ACL BeijingProperties
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GF
A (
Mil
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4.0
2.5
2.2
1.1 1.1
0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6
0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
GLP Prologis DaiwaHouse
Lasalle JLF Nomura RE Mitsubishi SG Realty GoodmanJapan
Mapletree
GF
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GL
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take
: 1
9.9
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GL
P S
take
: 5
1.3
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GL
P S
take
: 9
0-9
5%
5 CIVAS White Paper | June 2016 | Logistics | Colliers International
Chart 3: China E-Commerce (B2C) Players by % Retail Value (2015)
Source: ystats.com (2015) and individual company websites
Chart 4: Japan E-Commerce (B2C) Players by % Retail Value (2015)
Source: Euromonitor International (2015)
Chart 5: Korea E-Commerce (B2C) Players by % Retail Value (2015)
Source: Euromonitor International (2015)
Who are the Major E-commerce Players by Market Share?
Based on various market research results, in terms of
B2C (Business to Consumer) market, Tmall.com
(Alibaba Group Holding Ltd) dominates the market in
China followed by JD.com and Xiaomi.com. By contrast,
a large number of different companies take part in Japan
and Korea, as shown in Chart 3 to 5.
Chart 6: Other Asian Countries' Major E-Commerce Players
Flipkart.com Tmall.hk Q0010.sg
Amazon.in Ebay.com.hk Lazada
Jabong.com Groupon.hk Gumtree
Snapdeal.com Beecrazy Ebay.com.sg
Zalora.com.hk Zalora.com
Source: ComScore (for India), Similarweb (HK and Singapore)
For India, Hong Kong and Singapore, both domestic and
international E-commerce players have penetrated the
market, as shown in Chart 6.
In markets like China where the top player has more
than 50% of the market share, we believe that it is not
likely to be replaced by the second competitor within a
short span of time. This is because customer traffic is the
most important factor for success in E-commerce and it
is difficult to shift customers’ existing behaviour to a new
website. Veteran foreign players even ride on top local
players’ platforms to survive. For example, Amazon.com
Inc has opened a store on Alibaba Group Holding Ltd’s
Tmall.com in 2015 as Amazon has struggled to
penetrate the China market.
The other markets where major players are competing
neck to neck will continuously face furious competition
for larger market shares. As a result, both local and
regional M&A activities will aggressively continue, and
new players will be encouraged to enter the market
under this environment.
Regardless of whether the market is dominated by a few
main players or the market is fragmented with various
players, the E-commerce market pie is far from
saturation.
57%
21%
7%
3% 2%
10%
Tmall
JD.Com
Xiaomi.com
Gome Online
VIP Shops
Others
23%
19%
7% 5% 3%
2% 2%
39%
Rakuten Inc
Amazon.com Inc
Softbank Corp
Apple Inc
Japan ConsumersCooperative Union
Seven & I HoldingsCo Ltd
Start Today Co Ltd
Others
15%
11%
11%
4% 4%
3%
52%
G Market (eBay Inc)
Auction (eBay Inc)
11th Street
Lotte imall
GS SHOP
H Mall
Others
6 CIVAS White Paper | June 2016 | Logistics | Colliers International
“Japan’s logistics market demand from 3PL and
E-commerce increased over 125% and 270%
from 2006 to 2015 respectively." - GLP (2016 Company announcement)
As shown in Chart 7, retail E-commerce sales share
among total retail sales is forecasted to increase
significantly, especially in China and India, in five years’
time, according to eMarketer’s data (2014). In particular,
India has a great potential to catch up given its large
population and strong IT infrastructure. India’s current
offline retail structures are aged and out-dated in most of
the second tier cities due to lack of shopping centres in
the towns. Given that, people would try to buy new
trendy goods via E-commerce.
Even mature markets like Japan are still looking at
almost doubling their E-commerce sales share among
total retail sales by 2019. This indicates that logistics
market demand from E-commerce will continue to grow,
which requires bigger and larger scale warehouse
spaces. Prologis, one of the industry leaders, estimates
that every dollar of online sales needs three times more
distribution-and-warehouse space than one dollar of
bricks-and-mortar sales (quoted from the Wall Street
Journal, 14 June 2016).
Chart 7: Retail E-Commerce Sales % of Total Country
Retail Sales
Source: eMarketer (2014 Actual/ 2019 Estimation)
One of the main drivers for fast-growing E-commerce
sales is mobile commerce. Thanks to IT technology,
many people carry IT devices such as smartphones and
tablets. Moreover, as they are accustomed to using them
frequently, mobile commerce increased strongly. For
example, in Korea, the share of mobile commerce within
Internet retailing reached 45% in 2015, and is expected
to grow to 55% within five years (Euromonitor
International 2015).
However, physical developments of new logistics centres
require at least two to three years, and possible sites are
limited within the cities. As a result, logistics warehouses
supply will be behind demand from E-commerce and will
remain scarce.
Large E-commerce companies are also keen to build
their own logistics warehouses. However, renting high-
quality logistics warehouses or renting built-to-suit (BTS)
logistics warehouses would be a more flexible and
trouble-free solution for companies instead of going
through the various challenges - from obtaining
strategically located sites to actual construction. Alibaba
Group Holding Ltd obtained a number of vacant sites for
their logistics centre developments to accommodate their
fast ever growing business demand in China. However, it
will not be sufficient. Therefore, Tmall.com will continue
to be one of the major E-commerce tenants in China.
3PLs, Growing Demand
Chart 8: Asian Countries' Major 3PLs Players
Best Express
Alps Logistics
ACI Worldwide Express
Allcargo Logistics
Crown Logistics
DHL
Cainiao Network
DHL CJ Korea Express
Blue Dart Express
DHL Fedex
SF Express
Fedex DHL DHL Expeditors Kehne+Nagel
STO Express
Hitachi Transport System
Fedex DTDC Courier and Cargo
Fedex Network Courier
TTK Express
JFE Logistics
Hanjin Fedex Kerry Logistics
PCA Masters
UC Express
Kintetsu World Express
Hyundai Logistics
First Flight Panalpina Schenker
YTO Express
Nippon Express
OCS Gati Schenker TNT Express
Yunda Express
Sagawa Express
Sebang Express
Overnite Express
SF Express
Toll Logistics
ZJS Express
TNT Express
TNT Express
The Professional Courier Network
UPS UPS
ZTO Express
Yamato UPS TNT Express Yusen Yusen
Source: china.org.cn (China), Japan Institute of Logistics Systems (Japan), Journal of Korea
Port Economic Association, Vol.30, No.03, 2014, 209-230 (Korea), researchandmarkets.com
(India), HKTDC (HK), Singapore Economic Development Board (Singapore)
Remark: Listed in alphabetical order excluding each country’s Post Office Services.
12.4%
5.9%
10.3%
0.8%
3.0%
8.2% 6.3%
33.6%
9.7%
14.7%
4.8% 3.8%
20.4%
12.8%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Others Asia-Pacific
WorldWide
2014 2019
7 CIVAS White Paper | June 2016 | Logistics | Colliers International
Third Party Logistics (3PLs) is tightly connected and
benefited from the booming E-commerce industry
globally. For example, Singapore Post announced that
its estimated E-commerce-related revenue increased
18.9% YoY (FY 2013/2014 vs. FY 2014/2015), which
was the biggest performance driver given that its overall
revenue increased 12% at the same time in 2015.
Singapore Post also made a large number of
acquisitions to enhance its E-commerce-related logistics
service and platform. Although Singapore’s E-commerce
market is relatively smaller, it is a great example of how
seriously E-commerce can impact the 3PLs industry.
3PLs need to handle significantly increased delivery and
warehousing volume, thanks to booming E-commerce.
Hence, 3PLs became an important demand driver for the
logistics real estate market. For instance, as per GLP’s
2016 announcement, Japan’s logistics market demand
from 3PLs and E-commerce increased over 125% and
270% from 2006 to 2015, respectively.
In general, 3PLs require smaller scale logistics
warehouses but extensive network coverage for speedy
delivery. According to comScore, Inc, Asian shoppers
are avid technology users and the least patient, with
48% expecting next-day shipping to be offered by
retailers, the highest in any market globally. Same-day
shipping or next-day shipping is a common practice in
Asia. Therefore, 3PL companies spin a web extensively
in order to get closer to their customers. Proximity to city
centres and residential neighbourhoods are the key for
logistics warehouses in order to capture the growing
demand from 3PLs.
3PLs requires frequent truck traffic in and out as well as
efficient loading/uploading system. Therefore 3PLs
prefer a single storey logistics centre type for their sole
use in order to prevent traffic congestion. More and more
developers build multi-storey logistics warehouses even
for the markets where traditionally served by single
storey centres because of increasing industrial land price
in Asia, however, multi-storey logistics centres are not
the first choice for 3PLs.
How will E-commerce change the Logistics Real Estate Landscape?
Traditionally, logistics warehouses are located near
major transportation nodes including airports and
seaports. Highway accessibility is one of the top
priorities for traditional logistics warehouses. However,
the following services from E-commerce will gradually
change the warehouse building standard and add
different location criteria.
> E-Fulfilment Service
Due to emerging demand from E-
commerce, developers' and investors’
checklist for new logistics centres has
been changed to generate higher rental
income.
One of the new forms is E-fulfilment centre driven by E-
commerce. In the US, where large E-commerce giants
started their business, E-fulfilment service provided by
logistics companies is quite mature. Once Asia's E-
commerce market becomes more mature, E-fulfilment
service providers will be developed as well.
As E-commerce merchants need convenience, visibility
and speed to accommodate fast-changing customer
appetite, E-fulfilment logistics centres need (1) to be
located close to the city centres, (2) to provide extra
added-value spaces for working and packing and (3) to
have higher specifications such as extra cooling and
heating facilities for staff and higher ceiling height.
These requirements are particularly driven from E-
fulfilment centres (a new service type from E-
commerce), where a vendor sends all its products to an
E-fulfilment centre. The centre then takes care of
everything from getting online orders, packing, labelling
and on-time delivery service. This is a labour-intensive
service that requires even larger logistics space than that
of general logistics business. Logistics investors should
take into account this new format in the near future when
the overall Asia E-commerce market becomes more
mature.
> Consolidation Service
Further, large Internet platform B2C
companies need to provide extra
consolidation delivery service if
customers order from different vendors
that are registered on the
same website. Customers want to receive one
consolidated package in order to save on delivery cost,
and this requires another central hub logistics distribution
centre for consolidation.
8 CIVAS White Paper | June 2016 | Logistics | Colliers International
> Reverse Logistics
Many E-commerce logistics facilities
accept returns, and floor space must
be allocated for returns processing
and restocking activities.
China newly implemented a return policy via Internet
purchase without giving any reason effective March
2014. When the E-commerce market becomes more
mature in Asia, this reverse logistics will be a compulsory
requirement. This will require additional strategic logistics
centres.
Final Thoughts Due to uncertainties in the global economy and the
slowdown in China and India, overall trading and retail
businesses in Asia are currently experiencing a
downturn, making investors concerned about the
demand side of the logistics real estate sector. Although
there is certain downsizing of traditional retailers’
businesses, thriving E-commerce and proliferous 3PLs
are making up the shortfall and supporting the logistics
real estate market in Asia.
Apart from China where Tmall.com (under Alibaba Group
Holdings Ltd) largely dominates the market, various local
and international E-commerce companies face fierce
competition in other Asian countries such as Japan,
Korea, India, Hong Kong and Singapore. Healthy
competition has continued to encourage more E-
commerce entrants in the market. Regardless of whether
the market is dominated by a few main players or
fragmented with various players, the E-commerce
market is far from saturation.
Retail sales via E-commerce in China and India are
forecasted to triple or quadruple in the next five years.
Established markets like Japan and Korea will still see
significant share increases over the next years. As a
consequence of growing E-commerce, a large number of
new local 3PLs have setup and global 3PLs are
aggressively increasing their footprints.
However, due to time constraints on lengthy physical
developments of logistics warehouses, new supply is
projected to not be able to catch up with the speed of this
fast-growing demand, at least for the next five years.
Although major E-commerce companies target to build
their own logistics warehouses, we expect that they will
not be able to solely absorb their massive trading volume
in-house and E-commerce will remain as the major
demand for the logistics real estate sector.
As the Asian E-commerce market becomes more
mature, E-commerce together with 3PLs are changing
the overall logistics real estate landscape and investors
need to pay attention to their requirements in order to
capture this rapid growing demand with rental premium.
E-commerce companies generally carry a wide variety of
products which require larger scale logistics warehouses.
Prologis, one of the industry leaders, estimates that
every dollar of online sales needs three times more
distribution-and-warehouse space than one dollar of
bricks-and-mortar sales (quoted from the Wall Street
Journal, 14 June 2016). Therefore, larger floor plates are
important for E-commerce tenants.
In terms of location, traditionally logistics warehouses
were located near major transportation nodes. However,
new centres need to be either inside or near to city
centres. Even though logistics rents in the city centres
are at least 20% more expensive compared to the sub-
urban areas, proximity to city centres are the key for
3PLs as Asian customers expect same day or next day
delivery. New services such as E-fulfilment, delivery
consolidation and reverse logistics will also need to be
as close to the city as possible.
Investors also need to consider more flexible building
structures with higher specifications to accommodate
fast transformation of the E-commerce industry in the
long term. For example, a higher ceiling height will be
able to add a mezzanine floor for packing and labelling if
the traditional warehouse needs to cater for E-fulfilment
service.
The logistics centre will evolve from a simple warehouse
to a more value-added centre and if the buildings and
facilities are ready to be upgraded and transformable,
they will have a potential to generate higher yields with
rental premium.
9 CIVAS White Paper | June 2016 | Logistics | Colliers International
Asia Logistics Market Snapshot
Chart 9: Market Snapshot
City, Country
Type
Face Unit Rent (US$
/ sqm) From To
Net Yield
From To
Rent Trends
Unit Capital Value
(US$ / sqm) From To
Beijing, China Single Storey
5.6 6.5 5.00% 6.50% Up 770 1,135
Shanghai,
China
Single Storey
4.3 6.6 5.50% 7.00% Up 650 955
Hong Kong,
China
High rise
13.9 19.4 4.50% 5.25% Down 3,470 4,850
Singapore High rise
15.0 19.8 5.75% 7.00% Down 5,848 6,877
Gyunggi
Province,
Korea
Single Storey
6.1 11.7 7.00% 8.50% Stable 919 1,126
Greater
Tokyo, Japan
Single Storey
6.8 12.2 4.50% 5.50% Stable 1,340 2,240
Mumbai
Metropolitan
Region, India
Single Storey
1.5 2.4 8.00% 12.00% Stable 56 149
Delhi NCR,
India
Single Storey
1.6 8.1 6.00% 10.00% Stable 91 181
Bangalore,
India
Single Storey
1.6 3.6 6.00% 10.00% Up 37 186
Source: Colliers International Valuation and Advisory Remark: Currency conversion as at date of 1 April 2016 (Bloomberg)
Chart 10: Logistics Performance Index Score (2014)
Source: Worldbank
Remark: Index score from 5 (highest) to 0 (lowest) based on six areas including customs, infrastructure, intentional shipments, logistics competence, tracking & tracing and timeliness.
The LPI is based on a worldwide survey of operators on the ground (global freight forwarders and express carriers), providing feedback on the logistics “friendliness” of the countries in which they operate and those they trade with.
Chart 11: Population (2015)
Source: IMF
Chart 12: GDP per Capita (2015)
Source: Worldbank
4.12 4.01 4.00 3.92 3.91 3.83 3.67 3.53
3.08
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
Germany UnitedKingdom
Singapore UnitedStates
Japan HongKong
Korea,Republic
of
China India
1,371.9
126.9 50.7
1,314.1
7.3 5.5
-100
100
300
500
700
900
1,100
1,300
1,500
13,801
38,216 36,601
6,266
56,428
85,198
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
Tota
l P
opula
tio
n (
mill
ions)
GD
P p
er C
apita
(U
SD
)
Worldwide Ranking 1 4 5 9 10 15 21 28 54
Copyright © 2016 Colliers International.
The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report.
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Primary Author:
Hannah Jeong
Director | Hong Kong
+852 2822 0589
Contributors:
David Faulkner
Executive Director | Asia
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Vincent Cheung
Executive Director | Asia
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Flora He
Senior Director | China
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Seow-Leng Goh
Executive Director | Singapore
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Amit Oberoi
National Director | India
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Senior Manger | Japan
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