Framing the Choice in EU Referendums

Ece Ozlem AtikcanAssistant Professor

Politics and International StudiesWarwick University

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Framing the European Union: The Power of Political Arguments in Shaping European Integration (Cambridge University Press, 2015)

European Union referendums

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Understanding EU referendums: Alternative explanations

Second-order theoryVoting based on national issues

Attitude/Issue-voting theoryVoting in line with underlying attitudes towards European integration

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The puzzle

Why did the initially high levels of public support for the EU treaties melt away in three of the six cases but not in others?

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The central argument of my book

Strong No campaign arguments built a connection between the referendum proposal and existing contentious issues (at both the domestic and EU levels), claiming that these problems were caused or would be exacerbated by the proposed European treaty.

The existing contention remained unlinked to the referendum proposal in the absence of strong No campaign arguments.

Framing the European Union: The Power of Political Arguments in Shaping European Integration

(Cambridge University Press, 2015)

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Campaign Framing in Referendums

Framing theory The way an issue is presented can produce dramatic differences in

public opinion. (Chong and Druckman, 2007)

What makes framing successful? availability, accessibility, applicability of frames vivid, concrete, image-provoking, emotionally compelling frames frames containing negative information

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Methodology

Three steps to analyze campaigns:

Interviews with campaigners and EU officials(Field work in 2008 and 2011, 140 face-to-face interviews)

Media content analysis(Berganza, Capdevila, Gómez Puertas, Royal Elcano Institute study; Gerstlé, Schuck de Vreese; Kleinnijenhuis, Takens and van Atteveldt)

Public opinion data(Center of Sociological Investigations (CIS), Real Instituto Elcano, Advice on Survey Analysis (CSA), IPSOS, French Institute of Public Opinion (SOFRES), French Institute of Public Opinion (IFOP), Marketresponse, Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB), Netherlands Institute for Social Research (SCP), Luxembourg Institute for Social Research (TNS-ILRES), Millward Brown.)

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Implications

Given the EU’s complex architecture and distance from the citizens, a lot depends on how national politicians present it to their constituencies.

Not to trust early opinion polls!

Culture versus economy: Are cultural arguments easier to frame vividly?

Why are pro-EU campaigners not better at campaigning?

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