Emerging Challenges of Policy

Analysis in Singapore

Kwa Chong Guan

Head of External Programmes

S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies

Nanyang Technological University

THE “OLD” WORLD OF POLICY ANALYSIS & MAKING

LINEAR PLANNING/ANALYSIS

Identify Issue

Define Issue

Analyse Issue/

Generate Policy options

Evaluate/Select

Preferred Policy

Option

ASSUMES RATIONALITY, CERTAINITY AND PREDICTABILITY

Emerging Challenges to

Rational Actor Model of Policymaking

ISSUES more Complex, Complicated, Chaos

• ‘98 & ’08 Financial Crises

• Climate/Environmental Challenges/Change

• Pandemics

• Transnational Terrorism

The New World of Policy Making

Known Knowns Known Unknowns

Unknown Unknowns Unknown knowns

The New World of Policy Making

CHAOTIC COMPLEX

Known Knowns Known Unknowns

Unknown Unknowns Unknown knowns

SIMPLE COMPLICATED

How can Data Visualisation Support the New

Policy-making world?

Can Data Mining and Visualisation help us catch

Black Swans (BS), Wild Cards (WC), and Wicked Problems

(WP)?

– How do we know?

– How can we identify it?

– How can we deal with it?

SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory

Syndrome)• SARS was a Black Swan for Singapore � Why?

• Data Visualisation � 3 Qs to ask?

– Had we had the system to detect such cases,

would its effect to society at large be predictable?

– How could we integrate reports on similar cases

worldwide?

– How could we compile and analyse medical

background of people infected with SARS (and use

them should similar cases occur in the future)?

Risk Assesment and Horizon

Scanning

• RAHS as a prime example of Data Visualisation

Five Components

Data Collection

and Information Organisation

Context and Scenario

Development

Monitoring and

Detection

Pattern Discovery

and Evaluation

Collaboration

Regional Cooperation Agreement on Combating Piracy

and Armed Robbery against Ships in Asia (ReCAAP)

• Launched on 29 November 2006; recognised

internationally on 30 January 2007; 17

contracting parties

• Roles:

– Serve as a platform for communications and

information exchange

– Facilitate capacity building efforts in countering

piracy and armed robbery at sea

– Cooperate with organisations and like-minded

parties

Information Fusion Centre (IFC)

• Established on 27 April 2009 in Changi Command-and-Control

(C2) Centre

• IFC Key Tasks

– Collate & Fuse white shipping information

– Sense-make collated & fused information on maritime

domain

– Deliver actionable information to partners timely to cue

operational responses

Aiming for a Comprehensive Data

Visualisation

• Is it possible?

• In discovery of the “unknown” world

Known Knowns Known Unknowns

Unknown Unknowns Unknown knowns

THANK YOU